Asym above in post#1252

"...It's a honor for me to be here sharing ideas with KFB and Alrelax (and some others), true real world class experts (and foremost real players as we are)..."

Thank you AsymBacGuy. I learn a lot from your many essays(older posts too). I like that you elaborate on your topics. As many of your underlying theses are not the typical cookie-cutter or simplistic type ideas often observed on forums.

Keep up the good work.

From up above:

"...Well pre-2000, there were mostly the bac big tables where 2 dealers would work the double bank chip rack and 7 people can play on each end.  One dealer would stand opposite the chip rack in the middle of the table (see picture below where the indent is and place the players cards down by the rail and the bankers cards above those), he or she would receive the cards from each person when they had the shoe.  The shoe would start in seat #1 and be past around the table counter clockwise.  The person with the shoe would deal one card for the player and slide it to the dealer standing and then the next card for banker with its corner under the shoe, third card slid for the player again to the standing dealer, fourth card again under the corner of the shoe. You could wager either player or banker of course.  If you were high wagering player, you would then slide the bankers cards to the dealer standing and you would receive the players cards back to open.  If you were not high wagering players bet, they were slid to whomever was.  Then you would open the bankers cards no matter the amount you had wagered.  You kept the shoe as long as you made winning banker hands.

There was always at least a $100.00 minimum on the table.  The game was very slow and there were no automatic shufflers.  Took at least 20-30 mins for the shuffle.

Most all played same side and in sync.  Huge camaraderie prevailed most all the time.   .."


     I agree that pre-2000 the baccarat game was less profitable for the casino. I liked the big-table atmosphere. Since the 1980s it has gradually disappeared to only a few high-limit rooms offer it(& then not open 24/7). Although I do prefer the speed of decisions from the EZ Bac version in recent decades.

Besides the significantly fewer hands the Pre-2000 players were most likely to "follow the leader" (i.e., play in sync). It didn't really matter to casino which side (P as well as B) as "everyone betting with the camaraderie" created more volatility for the casino(vs the modern player more willing to wager opposite the current trend).

Casinos prefer less volatility and more predictability. If we go way back the game was played more like Black Jack where players could make drawing decisions based on what their opponent was showing,LOL. That would have been fun. The problem for the casino was they couldnt count on the Banker(dealer) using optimum strategy. Todays drawing rules fixed that concern for the casino. So in todays game the casino is satisfied with straddling the game results. Less volatility and guaranteed profits.


Many changes from the original parlor version of Baccarat chemin de fer:


The parlor game was originally a three-person zero-sum game. Later in the 19th century it was simplified to a two-person zero-sum game. Early in the 20th century the parlor game became a casino game, no longer zero-sum. In the mid 20th century, the strategic casino game became a nonstrategic game, with players competing against the house instead of against each other. It is my opinion that this evolution was motivated by both economic and game-theoretic considerations.

*Mostly Economic
     Majority of changes through the years are motivated by casinos' desire to increase profits. Meaning that when an inventor for a new layout presents their pitch to a casino they show how this "new layout, bonus bets, procedural changes,...etc" will increase ROI for the casino vs the current method.
I often find it informative to dissect and unravel bonus bets and (i.e, Why would they offer this, and or how did they calculate the house edge on this new wager). Then I look at the underlying premise and try to discern if there is a flaw in the inventors' calculations.


Continued Success,

Hi Asym

"...Our very large live shoes sample will constitute the basis and we'll try to manipulate the most deviated shoes into consecutive or short gap situations, so to test whether not average shoes can destroy a progressive plan.

More later
  .."

I look forward to addendum posts on this topic.

thx,kfb

A friend that owns a cyber security company sent the following link. He said it is very likely that authorities from "several" jurisdictions already know where to find the hackers(as well as whom). He never recommends paying ransom. Cyber security is one of the fastest growing segments in the tech industry.


https://cdcgaming.com/brief/michigan-sault-tribe-leaders-say-they-won't-pay-ransom-after-cyber-attack/

Thankyou ADulay for the thorough response/expert opinions.

Great advice from ADulay up above:

*The usual reason is a poor grip setup.
**Check to make sure you have a secure and proper grip.  This will solve a myriad of problems.
***Then make sure the tool you're using is what you can work with, not what the advertising in the gun magazines say you need.

    I see this 3rd one quite often. I almost fell prey to this about 10-15 years ago when researching 9mm semiautos for use as a CC.

"...Lots of older shooters, especially women, will show up with a revolver that is either too large for them or the trigger weight is so heavy that they can't pull the trigger!  ..."


         I concur. Personally I'm not a big fan of revolvers(Especially long-barrel higher calibers: .38, 44,...etc. IMO too cumbersome plus I don't care for the the trigger pull. I have several that I purchased through police auctions mainly as an investment/ not for daily use(or any use). Otherwise, I probably wouldn't own any revolvers.
Just my preference.

Cheers/ thx again.kfb

Follow up from my earlier post#64 up above.

KungFuBac:
"...As BTC started rising the past couple weeks BITI started dropping. I tried to get it at 25.55 but didn't get a strike that day. Last Wednesday(11/13) my price of $25.05 was triggered. It actually dropped on down to 24.40 or so I believe. Anyway , I was satisfied to get in at 25.05 and immediately set a sell price at .0735% profit. It(like BTC) is very volatile so I never leave it just setting idle(no trades on it) as alot of movement when our markets are closed(and BTC is live)..."

    My first target finally hit(It took 2months) as my sale of BITI(Proshares SHORT Bitcoin) triggered at >=26.90 this past week(thurs or fri)  produced  a >= .0735% Yield. I thought it would hit within 24-30days. I didn't check to see the exact hit price but somewhere between 26.90--27.05. I just happened to get a notice of the transaction. I only sold 20% of my initial stake purchased at 25.05.

* I had actually tried to get another tier below my initial buy level. I placed a Buy at 19.80 for an additional 1/6th of my initial amount. Then raised that addendum Buy to 20.80 as BITI initially started moving downward to 22-23 range but then started back up so I raised up from that 19.80. I just didn't want a big gap between entry and secondary tier levels.

So I still own 80% of my initial purchase at 25.05. Who know BTC could be at 100K tomorrow(I think it was 84K on 3/1/25). So my BITI will likely be very volatile going forward. I have several tier levels already entered for SaleOrders for huge gains(Im optimistic I will awaken some morning and see that Bitcoin has tanked). Which will mean my BITI skyrocketed.

Im not too overly concerned (Not very much invested) so will patiently wait(For years if required). I do indeed perceive Bitcoin could go much higher. Though I expect it to plummet and gyrate(maybe several times) prior to reaching its apex years down the road.

Good luck to all the Bitcoiners(and to the BITI buyers).

   

Good posts Asym.
AsymBacGuy in post#1246 above:


"Coin flip successions vs baccarat successions

Comparing coin flip tosses with bac successions is a pure mistake as the former model remains always independent but bac results are somewhat restricted by the average key cards distribution and, more importantly, by their sure asymmetrical distribution.

It's obvious that besides of the key cards average distribution, baccarat card combinations forming huge points (e.g. 6-3 or 5-4, 2-5, etc) move around the same concept, so what seems to be perfectly "randomly" distributed actually it doesn't. By any means."

Well stated. Though your post isn't about Ties. When debating coin flips with Bac or other supposedly even-chance games I always remind the other person that coins don't have Ties(land on their edge). Ties' affect on the overall outcomes are often overlooked IMO. Especially their influence on length of streaks. It is my opinion Ties absorb potential slightly more from one side.

*Though clumping of results are generally similar. It is my opinion that on the topic of clumping (Coin Flips) are more similar to (Dice Tosses) than a closed-cell(finite) game such as Bac. Mainly due to every toss of the dice each potential outcome is still absorbing a very tiny amount of the probability(Card replacement--i.e., every Die face is still available). Unlike Bac (No card replacement), sees a very tiny "limiting" factor beginning just after the cut/first hand.

Just my way of interpreting /comparing the games.


Continued Success,

Link to story via CDC is at the bottom.

I play here all the time(Mostly Blackhawk--Central City as they are adjoining towns with approx 30 casinos door-to-door with each other. I sure hope I didn't contribute to this 5.1% downturn. I would feel bad.

The author (Charlotte Capewell) states: "...Colorado's three land-based casinos generated more than $80.8 million in assorted gross profit in January, down 5.1% compared to the previous year's $85.1 million.   ..."

The casinos are in the mountains surrounded by old gold and silver mines that until recent years were mostly closed. I think all of Colorado's casinos are land based. Maybe the ones at CrippleCreek(fewest/smallest casinos & market) have a creek nearby.

     

https://cdcgaming.com/colorado-casino-profit-down-5-1-year-over-year-in-january/

I played this shoe recently. The outcomes below start at hand one.

PP T PP B PPPPP B P BBB PPPPP T PPPPPPPP BBB P BB PPPPPP .
Then B started to close the gap (continuance from above):

BBB PP B P BBBB P BB PP B

I started wagering mostly P on that 4th P starting from the Left. Mostly wagering P. After I lost the two bets above in blue I stopped wagering so didn't catch the remaining Ps in that final P run. I perceived B was getting ready to seek revenge. I was wrong as P still had some energy. I paused for several hands at that stage as I typically take a pause if I'm incorrect in back-to-back hands.

This was one of the easy days(i.e., Easiest in several weeks) as my first three sessions included the above and two other really easy shoes. In the shoe above I had a net of 48 base units on a 33 base unit buyin. The other two shoes I made a Net of 4 / 6 base units. When I say easy I mean my wagers won first and fast. As well as early in the shoe when my buyin was still near an -0- even balance.

* The first three sessions were completed by approx 1145am. I had brief passing thoughts of calling it a day,lol. I generally try to play at least 8hrs per day of actual table time. I played three more sessions that day with only one being difficult. None of the latter sessions were easy relative to the above. Although easier than many of my days.


Continued Success,

Link is at bottom.
 
When 2.3% Is Terrifying: A Gambler's Guide To The Asteroid Apocalypse.

I found this a good read(as it relates to probablility and gambling). I also think the more one games the more we look at the "non-casino" games of life from a probability stance(or we should)
.
Most of real life worry is generated/based on "perceived" fear and the probability of  bad happening(vs the % of bad NOThappening).

Especially in the way commercials are presented. Many misconstrue the probability of something happening. We should view as what is the probability of that event NOThappening. Notice the weather forcasters(30% of snow), which should be viewed as 70% NOTsnow.

Notice the pharmaceutical TV commercials as they always present their pitch based on a tiny fear of (disease, death, pain,..etc), therefore one should take our RX (just-in-case). Often the side effects(in the fine print) are worse than having a little discomfort for a couple days. Plus one may never catch that diesease, symptom, pain,..etc).


Re: The asteroid apocalypse.
We shouldn't worry too much (or any) until it gets within a year of time distance before striking. We could then predict with great precision "If" and more importantly "Where" it would potentially land.
Obviously, one could easily rule out greater than 50% of the earths surface. Plus about 1/3 of the potential surface would be water(ocean ,lake, river,..etc). So likely a nonissue.
 Maybe it lands in a field(no harm),...etc. Plus its only the size of a football field(Sounds big but... What is that % ratio to the available land surface,..etc). So even if it is projected to land in a populated areas I think we could tell the folks to vacate for a few hours,...etc.
So the potential catastrophe will likely be very very small(if it even hits earth). Yet Im sure the media will yammer on and on to infinitum as it approaches.

Any thoughts???


https://www.casinoreports.com/probability-asteroid-understanding-gambling/

that's funny.

When I have the option to open cards I usually play along(i.e., slowly peak at one corner), and create a little suspense for a few seconds.
I prefer Ez Bac vs Midi (I want decisions and faster the better),LOL. However, sometimes later in the day it is kinda nice to sit at a slower game. Im not one to start yelling picturepicture or monkeymonkey,...etc.

Though I do find it funny (& somewhat enjoyable) to watch others having a lot of fun with the rituals. Especially when the result is favorable by the majority at the table.

kfb

Thx ADulay. Great vid.

I perceive (from your posts), that you have a lot of expertise "in all things shooting".

What are your top three tips to help a person shoot with greater accuracy(Novice or experienced person)??

Thx in advance/may you always shoot straight, kfb

Hi AsymBacGuy and hope this finds you doing well. Good essay/thoughts up above.

Asym:

"...So it could be useful to approximate at best those 4, 5 or 6 card ranges, in the sense that whenever we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 4 cards the best bet, by far, is the Player bet.

If we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 5 cards, odds are that we'll be way more likely to win by wagering Banker side.

If we'd think that the next hand will be formed by 6 cards, well we better choose to stay put or, at the very least, to make a Player bet with a kind of minimal tie side bet whenever 6-cards consecutive hands are coming out..."


I agree 100%.
I find it easier to guess the first card vs the 5th and or 6th. Though a very arduous task.
Of course, the probability of the 5th and or 6th card is a function of that first card.


In my opinion.

Good luck with your pick/ hope you cover. I do not have a wager.

I don't watch or follow NFL. However, I think/hope the chiefs win. Its my opinion Fillie played their best game of the year two weeks ago. Chiefs are my pick(-1) mainly due to sentimental reasons.

KC was a little closer than Dallas from where I grew up. So starting in about 7th grade traveled to Kc at least once a year (The old Arrowhead stadium), to watch a game. We never had such extreme temps in the Midwest so the temps at KC were extreme. The seats at Arrowhead felt like frozen concrete(Because they were),lol. Temps and Wind Chill frequently approached -0- . Especially up in the stands.  As a kid it didn't matter. It was a lot of fun.

So GO CHIEFS.

Does anyone play at the following gambling sites?
Bovada; BetUS.com.pa; and MyBookie.ag.


Any opinions?

https://www.casinoreports.com/florida-offshore-operators-cease-desist/