Thx and good comments.

AsymBacGuy:
"...Maybe you could recall that I've crossed through an ALL 1s-2s shoe, anyway getting 1s-2s strings of 17-20 or more is not that infrequent.
I understand that things so polarized are visible after the fact: it seems that whenever we'd try to bet toward singles or doubles a streak (perhaps just a 3-streak) suddenly come out.."

    I agree /as I played the aforementioned shoe I recalled many of your fine essays on 1,2,3, IAR(In-A-Row) patterns.
The above shoe was unique in that the whole shoe was only 1s/2s(except the column#18) going 6iar. Re: Column 18: I had actually caught the red dot Wins on Row1,2, and wagered it to go 3iar(that's win 3c7 appeared), and I'm thinking "You got to be kidding" ,LOL. "A column finally goes 3iar and I get the push" . I then wagered it to go 4iar(& caught that one), and then held up to see what would present just after that "change".
Often when I see a shoe "Change" I anticipate more change(something different from previous dominance). However, this shoe fell right back into the historical 1s/2s for all remaining columns. Neither side was dominant. Just after the B 6iar column B was ahead by +7 and shoe finished with B +3. Many Ties(typically just after a 2iar) as I believe there were double digit Ties.

*In the above shoe my hit rate was decent as I put together 3 wins in a row a couple times but couldnt seem to get a 4th IAR Win streak. I generally wager about the same % on P or B and Opp or same-side or any other type patterns. One of the reasons Im mostly a Pospro (&seldom) do any Negpro is that keeps me off the negative trends(meaning when Im guessing incorrectly).

Asym: "..Anyway it's good to hear you have won the previous 6 sessions. Not an easy task though  ..."

Yes the previous sessions that day could not have been easier(five of the six were easily won), with only one requiring an extended effort to get a decent win. Typically on most days I will have a session or two that spans across maybe 2-3 shoes. A session ends for me when all my wagers have been decisioned and or I get a sizeable W(or bust that buyin). So when the wins show early in a shoe I may or may not end that shoe as I typically just reset back to that original buyin and base unit and keep playing. I did recoup the -6.2 base unit drawdown within the next two shoes the following day. The -6.2 base unit drawdown isn't a biggie as I don't really get too concerned about drawdowns until I see approx 60% penetration(Only 40% buyin remaining). Then I realize the battle is on/I need to change something on my bet selection.

alrelax comment above:
"..Here is a shoe with all 1s and 2s except for the opening 4iar banker and two more bankers with 3iar each.  Although not rare occurrences, happens quite often. .."
    Yes most shoes have parts (or sections) or maybe a half shoe of one noticeable pattern and then changes. As I've mentioned before I have played only one whole shoe in my life that neither side went 3iar(ppp or bbb), and that shoe only had one OPP: 3iar(pbp)isolated pattern, and it showed  near the very end.


Hope all had a great Christmas/New Years.kfb
*

Im on a 4day 3night bac excursion. I played a unique shoe yesterday. I did not do well as I had won 6 previous sessions that day /then hit this one. I drew down and was still drawn down at the end of it(-6.2 BaseUnits).

UniqueShoe:

It had only 1s and 2s in every column except column 18. Column 18 had six B in a row with the third one being a F7. No one was on it. This shoe would obviously be a marty or any negpro players' dream. It was a dream for me too(nightmare)   for me. Im not sure why I didn't catch on earlier in the shoe(maybe fatigue) or simply player error.


Continued Success,

Thanks and Merry Christmas to all.

Good topic.

"...Second. You have to decide and be very comfortable with what your bank roll will be, as well as what each session's buy-in risk capital will be...."
   
    In my opinion its critical for each player to design their own system by "fitting" it to their advantage % "greater than H.E." , then fit that to betsize-to-buyin-to-bankroll. Then fit that to ones own MMM.


"...Third. You must understand as well as be somewhat comfortable with unavoidable drawdowns. Drawdown of the players buy-in will happen the majority of the times...."

    The dreaded "drawdown" is what causes many to go on tilt. You can see it in the players eyes and can sense they are starting to "chase". Its certainly not enjoyable as I drawdown in many sessions prior to getting the W. We should just accept it as part of the game(same as when we get an "uptick" first).


"...Ref Martingale betting.  It is ultimately unsustainable and carries the highest risk of significant losses.

Ref Flat betting.  It is a very risky and slow way to make anything higher than a few units. .."


    I see the majority of players doing more Negpro vs Flat or Pospro.

I like to remind myself that we will get the same number of wins IAR(in-a-row) regardless of what we call our wager. Meaning, the event one is wagering on does not know if we just increased or decreased from the previous wager size/ does not know if we just won or lost,...etc.

*My advocacy for a pospro is because one can win by A)guessing more correct, and B)guessing fewer correct but putting together 2-4 wins IAR.

    I track many things at the table and one is my hit rate. Most shoes I probably average 8--16 wagers per shoe. Nearly every shoe ends up within 2-3  W/L. For example W8 L6, W6 L8, W9 L8,..etc. Occasionally I may have W10 L5k, which would be a very good hit rate for me. Usually due to getting an uptick just prior to coloring up or ending that session(Meaning I won 4-5 IAR at the end so instead of being at W5 L5, I finished the shoe at say W10 L5.
    *I had a session last week across four+ shoes and approx six hours where I had an approx 38% hit rate(rough session from the word go). I was never ahead until the end. I finally put together several wins IAR and finished +4 or so units. I was saved by the pospro. My hit rate was dismal and would have busted a Negpro of any kind and a Flat approach wouldn't have busted. However, it may have taken several shoes or days to climb back to even.


"...Say I bought it in for $2,400. I wager a $100 base unit with a plan to positive parlay wins three times. 1-2-4, $100 wins 3 times, will net me $700.  Naturally it will take some kind of drawdown to get there most of the time. But not all and maybe I could do it a few consecutive times in a row. ..."

    Very doable. The great part of such a wagering regime is that you may do it(hit your thrice parlay Coup)  on the first (or early) attempts. Then you now have 24 +7 attempts(31).
    *Every time one hits a coup I would use that as a trigger to apply ones MMM for any +gains >2400 initial buyin. It doesn't matter if your only ahead $150 or 550 or whatever. Then reset and keep playing with the initial 2400 buyin risk. If one draws down first (prior to a win) I wouldn't reduce base unit from $100 down to say $80 as a way of extending the buyin( I see this from many players).

Good thread alrelax


More later,kfb















   

Hi AsymBacGuy.

In the above post u say: "...If the results would be decided by the first two initial cards without the intervention of the third card(s), well the game wouldn't exist at all. (Obviously I admit a kind of vig on each winning bet)...."

re: third card.
    Do you try to hypothesize if the next hand will include a third-card draw? Meaning the next hand will potentially have a total of 5 or 6 cards dealt(and then use that"3rd card potential", in your decision making for deciding which side u will wager??)

Thx

Link at the bottom.


Poker and Holdem type gamers are really skilled at this. Even in cash games they know how to lay low and look/act like the locals, move around to other casinos. In other words they know its in their best interest to not make a big entrance(if well known on WSOP circuit) and travel around to different markets vs camping out in one 3-4 casinos market. I play Bac with several BJ,poker-type,Holdem players and some of their "incognito" strategies are really creative(and funny).

IMO many advantage-play camouflage strategies are common sense.
Such as frequently pocketing a few chips(i.e., showing a loss or a lesser win,..etc).

Announcing to everyone for several days when you lose a buyin or have a rough session.

Avoid boasting to casino dealers and or pit mgrs.

don't wear out your welcome by pounding the same casino several days in a row.

Present as a loyal, pleasant, and friendly patron(e.g., don't scold or curse at a dealer mistake after a dealer error,..etc), as it most likely wasn't intentional.
Always optimal to look at the bigger picture.


https://www.888casino.com/blog/advatage-players-not-kicked-out

"...Prepare for the worst, expect failure.  But don't stress and seriously consider your buyin risk capital.  Believe in yourself, not the Shoe to match your desires.  Deploy your knowledge and experience while you "Go for it" and "Do it"..."

I concur.


    I agree/ perceive many experienced players have an advantage (though may not optimally apply that advantage due to weak MM and or lack of discipline). Just my opinion /I could very well be incorrect.


Continued Success,

I agree/wish more casinos had at least one big bac offered. EzBac and multi-player layouts prevailed(i.e., more profits for casinos), less staff needed,...etc.

"...Here is one for the old school bac players that used to play on the original two sided tables, with the 2 bankers seated and the casino person standing up calling the cards, and a floor supervisor on each end of the table.  This was also the type of table where each person actually held the shoe and dealt the cards, kept the shoe as long as the shoe was producing banker winning hands and pass the shoe counterclockwise after the shoe made a winning player hand...."


...

"...Remember this one large player back at Ballys Grand in AC, needed anything but a face or 10 and we would have all won the hand.

You know, back then smoking cigar, Italian biz owner of some type from NYC etc.

Anyways he peeks at the card.  Looks at everyone.  We all know it has to be a face card.  He looks at bankers seated, (don't forget we actually had the shoe not the casino personnel). Looks at the banker seated and throws the card at him, like frisbee style and said, here you take the lesbian (it was a queen of course) and he immediately pulls another card.  Gets a number card and slams it down,  said, see that-we won.  ..."

that's funny. Many may not recall that 25--35 years ago (late 80s--mid 90s)were the golden years or "heyday" for AC. Often referred to then as the "Vegas of the East",...etc.

One of my most memorable visits to Atlantic City was in 1989(Watching a Mike Tyson fight). New casinos and buildings all around, boardwalk, nice beaches (or at least well kept casinos even if not new), low crime as long as you stayed within 2 blocks of the casios and boardwalk,...etc). Beaches were spotless and no riffraff tolerated,..etc. Many hollywood/ professional athletes seen frequently as they chose AC over LVegas or at least for part of their casino destination trips.

Unfortunately for AC after the mid 90s Tunica was then on an untick in the mid to late 90s with their own "new" casinos. Of course now Tunica is suffering from the same fate that AC is now trying to endure(i.e.,High crime out of nearby Memphis, Indian casinos in nearby states, new states allowing casinos,..etc).
However, in my opinion the main difficulties for both gaming destinations(AC and Tunica) in recent years is more due to online gambling and sports betting now proliferating the markets.

Hopefully AC can somehow resurrect the golden years. I havn't been there in many years.


Continued Success,

Hi AsymBacGuy--another excellent post. I agree 100%(Especially the last sentence in bold below).

Asym above in post#1203:

"...The best #1 example not needing any study is the B>P math propensity (which of course doesn't erase/invert nothing), so B bets are better than P bets.
Unfortunately, in reality B bets are "less worse" than P bets and sometimes that's not even true (no commission tables with B being payed half when winning by a 6).

Trying to forecast a more likely B apparition than expected based upon precedent patterns is a worthless effort. Verified one million of times.

The B propensity is mostly based upon the B4 and B5 initial points meeting a P drawing hand and those situations aren't going to come out so frequently. Meaning that the majority of B bets are just a waste of money (even though less money is wasted than at P bets).

Therefore if some patterns are long term more likely than others and capable to erase/invert the HE, they must also incorporate P hands.
  ..."



Continued Success,

This may be an interesting case.

https://cdcgaming.com/brief/lawsuit-alleges-wheel-of-fortune-slot-game-bonus-wheel-is-rigged/

Follow up to alrelax OP up above.

"...Within about a minute at most, security officers and a couple local law enforcement officers all came running over.

Just before the officers came over, the guy got in at least two more full face smacks each time the other guy attempted to get back up. They both got quickly handcuffed and taken out off the casino floor. Several floor managers were over at the table and told everybody not to touch any chips and they were calling security ..."


    Last week I was talking to a veteran dealer and telling her about the above story and asked if she had ever seen that between Bac players. I've know her and her husband for many years and they both dealt games in Vegas for about 15 years and 9 of the vegas years in Hi-Limit rooms. They transferred to Colorado a few years ago and now working in Midwest,USA.  Neither said they witnessed Bac players actually throw punches but witnessed several incidents where they would have if table mates or friends didn't get between them.

She said the one of the closest encounters was in the hi-limit room where a high roller became angry after busting a buyin at the end of his long losing streak. He shoved the shoe at her and into her lap/ threw the MIDI cards at her striking her in the chest/face. She said another player next to the Whale "card-throwing"  man jumped up and started to punch him. Security came over and intervened immediately and then told the Whale to come with them. At first card-throwing man refused until security told him they would cuff him "right there right now". He followed security a few feet away to edge of room and after speaking to him a minute or so they cuffed him/walked him out.

She said he was a jerk as he often would blow cigar smoke in her face if he lost a hand/never tipped. She said supervisors later asked her if she wanted to file charges against him. She declined and said as long as he didn't play at her tables she was OK. She said it surprised her they were willing to file charges. According to her they usually let "Whales" get by with anything.

That's crazy. Good job by the police. I would not want to be in law enforcement. My tolerance level for nonsense would be tested every day.

*With the legalization of Cannabis in many states there has been an increasing problem and huge uptick of people entering hospitals' ER with Scromiting --Cannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome (CHS). Vomiting and uncontrollable screaming, yelling, and crying.

Thx AsymBacGuy for your prompt reply to my Q / additional intel. I will have to read your addendum  post re: 3/3+ streaks and (1-125 results) a little more thorough.  It was late last night when I skimmed through it / not 100% sure I understand it clearly. I shall follow up on that topic in a day or so. Thx in advance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I agree with you on the 2s theory as well as the "clumping" of 3/3+ . I see this clumping quite often (especially after singles or  "opps" with maybe only a 2iar dispersed in a couple places.

*Side Note
Last week I had a 6-deck shoe where P was stuck on 1 IAR(in-a-row) for 11 consecutive events(i.e., P had 0 columns greater than a single P), during that series. Then for the next six columns after P finally broke the curse  it went >=2iar(PP) or greater in its next 6-7 columns I believe(5 Piar was the most in that clumping group).

     I noticed the 11 iar P failing to go 2iar on the second event I believe, won the next two events(i.e., wagered B), then I believe on the 5th P1iar I saw something else and wagered P to break its rut. It did not. Then at or near the 7th P1iar I wagered for P to go 2iar and the same after 8th(again I lost) as P stayed at 1iar. I aborted the mission and just waited until that 12th P1iar finally went 2iar. That's when the aforementioned clumping started. I picked up a few wins in that clumping group but nothing really significant regarding putting together several wins iar.

I sometimes find it favorable to see an event start happening when it has "NOT" been happening for awhile. Sometimes I can grab a couple Ws at that 2nd,3rd, or 4th event. Then I watch for something else that has been HOT or NOT and wait for the HOT to become NOT and the NOT to get HOT. 

Thx again Asym,


Continued Success To All,

Thanks Asym

"...is so important to focus our attention about ranges splitted into expected ranges and actual ranges..."

To clarify do you mean gaps or distance between said events when you use the word "ranges"  vs the expected distance between events(whatever the event one is observing)


Thx,

That's certainly atypical for the Bac tables. I've never observed a physical altercation at the Bac tables(ever). A few exchanges of curse words (or what I perceived as curse words as I didn't comprehend the language). However, I was fairly confident it was not greetings or salutations. Never have I witnessed fights between BACers.

I once saw five get into a physical altercation at a Kansas City, Mo casino. It was near a Craps table(which was two tables and 20 feet or so over from my Bac table). Three women got into it over one of them being a mistress or girl friend to the others boy friend(or husband),and I guess one showed up unexpectedly(or that's the story I heard from a security person).

The three women were slinging each other around by the hair/trying to land punches though not with much success. Then one of their boy friends tried to break it up(Which then caused the other male to get involved). The two men threw a couple half-effort punches, and shoved each other a little/then tried to pull the girls apart. It took about 8 security persons to break it up /then two of the females were still fighting/grappling on the floor. I would have probably scored it a draw    .
Most of the Craps players just scooted out of the way a little and kept playing. They would glance at the fighters just to make sure they were not going to fall into them,lol.

Its been my experiences that most Asians are a well civilized group, especially at the Bac tables(Non-Asians too). Most Bac players in general seem to have above-average self control and less reactionary vs some of the other types of gamers. Just my perception as I've seen several verbal altercations between BJ or other card game players near the Bac tables

The above post by alrelax was a crazy event but it seems like they did a decent job of getting it under control. It appears they had been trained on what to do in such event.

    *I was in a casino once and a tornado started coming through/ just about that time they blasted the sirens throughout the city and the casino announced for everyone to go to the basement. At that time the lights flickered and the power went off. Every dealer at every table game just sprawled their whole body over the chip rack /told the players "Do not touch your chips" and step back at least five feet. Generators came on in about 15 seconds and after lights came back on order was restored/people colored up and either went to the basement or headed home(I did the latter).




Cheers,