Thx Asym for your essays.

In post #1036 above Asym says:

"...4- Betting two times the same side is particularly powerful when the first (losing) bet was made at Banker side and not involving the singles one/two distribution.  ..."

    I like your suggestion of making only two swipes against an event. It seems many like something similar to a 1-2 negpro(i.e., $100,200). I seldom do a neg progression but when I do its for only two attempts and the first tier is typically 1.0 BU and then 1.05 BU.

The main attribute to this two-attempt approach is that we will often win that FIRST attempt. In cases where I lose the first two attempts @ (1.0, 1.05) my next two attempts going against another event would likely be: (1.7, 2.4). I typically don't chase after that (4 L against 2 events) and any type of negpro after the first few event(s) would be for partial recovery only(Or I would just abort the mission). My premise for not chasing is that I can make up most of the $ from these four failed attempts with a simple pospro on one or two parlays when Im in sync with the Variance.

I mostly live/die by Pos progression and compounding for the simple reason: I don't want to put more money on the table when Im losing.  So this "two-attempt negpro" in my mind is just the right length. Plus we will often get the W on that first attempt.
Just my opinion.


Thx again for your posts.

Thx albalaha for sharing your research, opinion, and all the BD details in post #6 above.

Re: blackdag et al speculative cryptos.

I know very little about this one or any of them. However, its my opinion one should treat them like our gambling stake. I think many times the conservative bettor that only goes for a few-units Win would do better if they took part (7--13% or so) and parlayed it four times(meaning five hits four compounds), and bring it all down (The KungfuCompound&DownKFBgoldMillionaireMethod).
Same thoughts for some of these penny cryptos or stocks. Take about 7.5%--13% of ones overall investment portfolio and look for a Black Swan event. Divide that 7--13% into seven equal allotments on seven different investments and go for the homerun. As in life we will often not get the homer but by swinging for the fences may still hit a triple or double(and will always have a very slight probability for hitting the Grand Slam).


Good luck to all investors,

BTC @ 62,700 today 42624.

As mentioned in previous posts I do not currently have any BTC/ have been betting that BTC will drop from its high of ~~73K by purchasing BITI(Proshares Short BTC).

I was able to unravel the 2nd of 5 tiers from my short position on BTC (BITI) last Wednesday (a week ago). Reminder: The BITI moves in the opposite direction of BTC futures.

My sell was for 20% of my stake at a >=16.6% profit. I still have 3 of 5 tiers remaining and though the next tier will potentially hit today or Monday the remaining two tiers are still a little underwater as I will need BTC to drop below 60K and then toward the 54k-56 range. If this 3rd tier does indeed hit Im golden/ will have several options for how to play the remaining two positions. Possibly an arbitrage situation going forward. Though Im not an advocate for hedging(Investing or gambling).


The volatility of BTC makes it difficult to project(at least for me). So I also have two additional tier Buys in place to purchase more BITI. If BTC spikes and hits the >=73K, and then 84Kish targets. In other words I have the squeeze on BTC(i.e. My KUNGFU Grip     ) At least if BTC doesn't skyrocket to >=90K in the near future. Then BTC would have me in a choke hold or at least force me into waiting for a few weeks to months,...etc.

If BTC were to hit 90K before it drops  on down to 59K I would just wait it out. As I would likely be required to just hold my last two tiers and hope for a huge decrease in BTC sometime in the future. I started placing these tiers several weeks ago so Im optimistic by bets will come to fruition within the next few days to weeks.



Good luck to all crypto investors

Great pics. I look forward to the tote board pics and all the details.



Continued Success,

Hi 8OR9
Good read. I had not heard of this one. I suspect we will eventually see more/more of these (FTX) type scenarios exposed. The media (in the U.S. ) seems to only give these stories a brief mention.


I saw this story a few days ago:

"...SLERF developer wipes out 50% of token supply
SLERF's developer announced on Monday that he accidentally burnt nearly 50% of the token's supply, losing $10 million in funds belonging to presale participants..."

 
What do you tell your investors (i.e., presale participants): "Whoops my bad"

It will be interesting to see if any consequences(restitution/ prison time) will be doled out eventually.



Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy. Good thread.

In Post #1033 above:
"...Think about sections containing 6, 7 or more consecutive streaks without no singles and the exact opposite scenario.
Those are natural "strong" deviations that must be balanced along the way, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

Anyway such balancement most of the time doesn't act symmetrically as the transitory deficit will be overcome by low or moderate changes of direction, privileging opposite short patterns than long patterns...."

For me this "MODERATE CHANGE" being detected early on is the key to seeing it just a split second sooner. This is one of many reasons I prefer to play a shoe from the burn onward/ not after the shoe has started.
Its no different then if someone tells you their blood pressure is 120/80 or their pulse is 72. The values become more important once we learn this persons historical average, and how much it has changed, and in which direction.
Its all about the change.




Continued Success,

Thx albalaha. I've researched some/ will study some more over the weekend. This one may have some merit.




Continued Success,

"At gambling, the deadly sin is to mistake bad play for bad luck." – Casino Royale (Movie)   

Great writing as always Asym. I do not think I have ever seen so many succinct statements in any one post.

*so the idea so loved by mathematicians that each new hand is EV- no matter what is a total completely bighorn.sh.it.

**Hoping to get an endless series of unrandom spots (no matter how long we've waited for them) is an utopy; confiding that an infinite series of "same situations" will stop before reaching the common expected sd values is a sure fkng certainty.

***For sure itlr such 0-5/6 "d" range is constantly shifted toward the left side, meaning there will be dealt a lot more shoes belonging to the 0 or 1 category than belonging to the 4 or 5/6 class.

--"...I'll try to better schematize that within a couple of days...."


I look forward to your further elaboration.

Many thanks,kfb

BTC @ 71,500 today 4824.
I agree Alb we may see <=80K in near future. After it held above low 50s I projected we could potentially see <=85-86k as an apex. After all the halving hype there will be a retreat toward a mild basil near 50K IMO. We could possibly see a retraction >=30%.

There are so few holders of btc at large quantities the price can and will fluctuate with great volatility as the large holders see fit.

*Another concern is even if the small holders hedge their bets with inverse ETFs such as (BITI), btc is traded 24-7 and BITI as well as most markets (In USA) are only open 8am--4pm. So just a few BTC holders can really alter the markets at night or weekend.


Good luck to all bit coiners/remember to take some profits or at least get your cost basis +3% out. Then let it ride if you desire as thou shalt see high volatility in coming month.
Just another investing tip from your Uncle Kung 


Continued Success To All,

Thx 8POR9
Awesome story/thx for posting.

--------------------------------------

Great auto photos from the past. It is obvious why most are no longer around.
*I remember the first time I ever saw a Yugo. Probably late 1980s and they had one on display in a shopping mall. The hot model that was standing near the car was explaining to passerby's what a great car. It seems like this base car was approx. $4900 or so without a radio. That was extra.
The main things I recall about it(besides I had never seen a car without a radio) was the tires were tiny and looked like a spare (doughnut). The bumper was mostly plastic and only about 3" wide.


Thx for photos

"...BTC will stay and get stronger... Those predicting that it will not last should learn from BlackRock.. ."


BTC at 69,500 today 4/1/24. I think its been up or down a couple K in past 24 hours.

I agree it will stay and be around for awhile(Until the next big thing). So are tulips and beanie babies. In fact, I gave my neighbor approx half of the tulips from one of our flower beds after they complemented them. I probably received them free 20years ago or maybe paid $3-5 at Lowes Home Supply. But yes indeed tulips are still around. So are beanie babies as I recently saw a bin of them for $3 each at a local antique store.

BTC is nothing like it was defined in its initial White Papers in 2008--2009. So just because they keep changing what it is and will become doesn't mean the folks 14 years ago were correct.

The tenets from its origin papers are easily refuted. So the BTC we are seeing today in its current state is largely due to great marketing and a cultish type following that is now coupled with a financial instrument.
BTC most resembles a commodity/ most certainly is not and will not be a currency unless it continues to evolve. Which then makes it NOT the bitcoin from its origin. Thus far I have not seen anything transacted with bitcoin(unless very recently). Items are transacted in dollars and then translated into bitcoins.
In fact, if we really needed a new way to do electronic payments doing so with Apple shares (ApplBit)would have been significantly more efficient. Far more people owned Apple stock and if a large enough audience bought (AppleBit) they would have incentives to also buy Apple products (Iphones, Ipads,..ets) to directly increase the value of AppleBit. If one owns BTC ones only hope is to sell it to someone else for more.


I recently observed a clip from a talk show host on CNBC and after the guest pointed out that BTC had drifted so far from its original tenets and had no characteristics of a currency. The CNBC host (without hesitation) immediately states: "well that's what makes BTC such a unique currency is that it has the ability to "evolve" like no other currency ever in our history". The guest almost burst out laughing but quickly tried not to scoff at the host/ the CNBC host even had to hide his own laugh as he knew what he just said was BS.

The original claims such as total anonymity, government can't ever see what you're doing, can't be hacked, well if u get hacked u should have put your holdings in a hot wallet--OR cold wallet, transactions are free, transactions are fast,....etc.

IMO the recent ETFs (and the fees collected by exchanges/investment Co such as Blackrock) will keep BTC alive for many years as they are making a killing on these new ETF fees. Today's stock market is much like a casino. IMO the casino gives one a less manipulated market if one plays low H.E. games such as Bac.

The following in part from Investopedia:

What Changed Since 2008 and 2009?

Bitcoin's lifespan contains an enormous history of ups and downs, both in terms of its dollar price as well as its development and support. For an idea that started as an anonymous research paper, its reputation and large market capitalization are astounding. To enjoy these accomplishments, Bitcoin had to endure several diversions from its original white paper:

Mining centralization:
Bitcoin's popularity drove its price up, which made mining very lucrative. Though the network is designed to be decentralized, those with enough money built large mining facilities in areas that subsidize electricity, thereby concentrating an important source of Bitcoin's power into the hands of a few.

Incentives:
Part six of the white paper outlines the rewards to miners, but even the largest are not immune to market forces. Mining Bitcoin gets progressively harder as the network grows, and so eventually, mining it en masse requires a lot of hardware, electricity, and cooling. This creates a breakeven point for mining, which is a factor that was not anticipated in the white paper.

Blockchain's size:
Part seven of the white paper is about keeping blockchain's size at a minimum, and so far, it's done a decent job. However, at around 558 GB as of March 23, 2024, it is a significant storage burden.
15
Blockchain.com. "Blockchain Size (MB)."

Privacy:
Satoshi illustrates his vision for private transactions in part 10, but Bitcoin is now only private for those who take great caution to ensure their anonymity. Most Bitcoin is now traded between centralized exchanges that require identification (and occasionally bank account verification), so it is not difficult to trace to whom it belongs or where it is going. Bitcoin's speculation-fueled popularity put it in the spotlight of government and central banks long ago. Though people understand institutional finance cannot ever destroy Bitcoin entirely, at this point, it is as much a part of Bitcoin as regular users are.

Speed and Fees:
Bitcoin's core development team has made changes to its code over time to address problems with transaction speeds and costs. They have altered the size of blocks being verified and opened up pathways for integration with off-chain solutions like the Lightning Network. Whether these side chains or second-layer solutions will pay off in the long run remains to be seen.


Just my quick thoughts/opinions as I skim the forum late at night.

More later/ Best of luck to all bitcoiners,

Asym in post #1016 above:

"...But only a small portion of them know that in order to win itlr one must realize that only a huge bankroll could cover the vast majority of negative fluctuations the game will provide, at the same time aiming for a relatively small profit per every session played..."

I agree 100%.
It is my opinion one should not seek to develop a holy grail that wins all shoes. We would simply be forced to utilize such a small bet size to buyin ratio. The wins wouldn't really "move the needle" as far as a % of the overall bankroll. Plus we would still have at least a small probability to bust.

It is my belief we are better off trying to handle a predetermined level of (-)Variance. Allow just enough buyin size(dependant on one's own hit rate) so we will still be in the game after the inevitable rough patches. Give ourselves a statistically and realistic opportunity and accept when it's not there. On the shoes we do indeed bust our buyin we should remind ourselves it can only lose down to (0). As long as we don't rebuy into that same bad shoe.

My preference is to utilize a pos progression so we win more when we see that same Variance as (+). Hopefully significantly more on the W streaks/shoes.



Continued Success To All,

"When a gambler picks up a pack of cards or a pair of dice, he feels as though he has reduced an unmanageable world to a finite, visible and comprehensive size."

                                                        – Annabel Davis-Goff

alrelax above (in part):

"...
There were hands such as the following ones I will write out.

P=2/face B 10/7 and P pulls a 6. Everyone on bankers.
P=4/9 B face/6 and P pulls a 4.  Everyone on bankers.

Everyone switched to players.
P=10/8 (of course quick hi-5s) B turns over 10/9.

Most all the serious bettors switched back to bankers.
P=9/8. B=5/A.

Most stayed bankers.  P=9/9. B=9/8.

Then hands such as: P=face/4. B=face/face. P pulls a 6 and bankers pulls a 10.  Most were on bankers and that, "darn can't even beat a zero" was said out loud in frustration.

Everyone on players with large wagers.
P=5/9. B=2/10. Players turn over a 7.  Bankers turn over a face card.  Another frustrating hand for most...".


I have been there/done that and agree its certainly frustrating. Its an emotional killer when say P has '"1 and all B has to do is beat "1" and fails. I get a brief moment of thinking "even a fifth grader could beat a 1,lol. Im thiking "Cmon dealer" as Im already counting the wager as a W. Then nada. Reminds me of a frequent saying I hear at the tables: "Got an eight don't yet celebrate".


H-Money says, "let's do this" pretty loud.  Throws in the $1,200 I gave him and he had a few hundred left in chips.

I do not do this though Im glad it worked for him "this time".

I see people do it all the time though. Fight a tough battle for hours and then due to fatigue go all in or parlay all net profits for that one final "Sayanora" , "Im going home wager".


Good post