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Messages - KungFuBac

#91
The USA Today poll was completed Aug 26,2024 and "shocker" CET wins it again. The link below at very bottom shows the results according to this USA Today poll. The ranking is shown as the top ten in the order of 10th--1st.

I didn't look at details for the poll. However, I wonder if the votes were weighted as a function of which casinos have the most patrons. It is my opinion the larger casinos should be expected to receive the most votes. Thus we would expect the CET to have an advantage over some of the smaller groups. Plus CET bombarded members w emails everyday reminding them to vote in this poll.

I don't have anything against CET as I don't have any in my main market/have seldom played at one of their casinos in recent years. I do know they have watered down the requirements for 7-star (And Diamond too) with all of their tier-multiple bonus weekends(5x or 10x ,...etc). Often the 7-star line at the check-in counter is longer then the DiamondLine.
One can easily obtain 25,000 (Diamond level) in a single weekend trip. Especially if one plays slots or other high-tier games. A little more difficult (but still doable) if one only plays table games such as Bac, BJ, or Poker-Type games. 

*As a side note and a complement to CET re: Sports Betting.
    I just recently returned from a trip and I usually do some sports betting when on a multi-day trip if I have access to several Sports books.
I was comparing lines each day between Fanduel, Draftkings, CET, ESPNBet. I had a $100 Freeplay so I spoke with a couple gamers I play with that have some sportsbetting expertise.

I would take their selections and run through an AI platform, and three other sportsbetting apps and make an assessment for which wager each day had the best value.

I would compare lines at the aforementioned books and use the book with the best line.
Anyway, I had taken the $100FP and parlayed 3x on three different sports(baseball, tennis, and basketball) over about 5 days.
I then took my first proceeds (A $120 profit) and parlayed the residual wager again on a tennis match. I know very little about tennis and was simply following the recommendations of my two experts above.
My selection forfeited his match with an "alleged" injury late in the third game. I thought I had lost and started to toss the ticket. I then decided to do a little research as I always thought that in any sporting event that as soon as the match started(regardless if boxing, tennis,golf,...etc) and if selection forfeited one simply lost their bet(win for the sportsbook).

After further research I learned that many sportsbooks count the wager on tennis as valid once the event starts. However, CET counts as a "push" in tennis regardless if one side quits aftrer one second or near the end. Kudos to CET. In my case I didn't lose this wager. During the week long trip this was the only wagering event where CET offered the most favorable line vs the books above.
The next day I wagered the parlayed bet again on a baseball game and lost. So my $100FP only returned $120.

Anyway, I was glad to learn this about CET on Tennis wagering.


https://10best.usatoday.com/awards/travel/best-players-club-2024/
#92
KungFuBac / 5Day4NightBacTrek
September 03, 2024, 04:54:38 PM
Good morning to all.
I just returned from an overnight multi-day trip during the Labor-Day holiday weekend.
Brief highlights/lowlights below.

My town typically has a lot of festivities during this holiday. So to side step an extra 100,000 folks drinking/partying in my town I decided to take a 2.5 hour trek to a casino market that I typically only play during the week(daytime). Plus my wife was off work /wanted to travel somewhere.

I live in a casino market with casinos 5mins away and over 100 within a 3hour radius so rarely travel overnight with most play M-F, with occasional sat or sun early afternoon quick sessions.

Even when I play overnight in this market I general don't stay in any of their casino hotels. Mainly because I don't want to be obligated to any one cas just because they gave me free room/food. I typically just rent a hotel equi distance to all four (15mins or so to any of them). So that I can play as long or little at whichever I prefer/not be restricted. Plus I like to get out of the casino and give my brain a little rest from all the aural stimulation. Plus I meet some of the local players and generally play more at the casino we agree upon by consensus.

I also like the option should I want to eat a certain type of food. IMO most casino food is unhealthy (fast food, buffets,...etc), and during the week/ typical day-only trips I pack my ususal(Turkey sticks, cheese sticks,veggies, nuts, H2o). Often just snacking as I drive to different casinos. Time is money.   

I use an outside host for most all overnight casino trips. Same for this trip/ had him go ahead and book a comped room for the first night at the largest of the four casinos(Pottawatomie tribe-OKC,OK). Plus I have several Bac comrades that play here so joined them for several sessions.
Plus they have a really nice Brazil Steak House that my wife likes(& my host not only added the comped steak house but also added a $249 two hour spa pkg for my wife). The steak house is great food but I typically don't eat there as its simply too much food. Plus when playing during the day I prefer to not take time off from gaming to set in a restaurant for an hour,..etc.


The four casinos I play Bac in this market are small indian casinos with 1k and 2k Tmax(Most 1k) and though some may have three Bac tables typically only have one or two open in the morning(& some days never open all of them or only at night).

I played approximately six to seven shoes per day(some only partial)

Highlights: Longest of the common streaks was a Banker 9iar(ended shoe). 10iar P streak. 8iar 2x2(BBPP), 8 iar opps(BPB,...etc). 9iar 1x2(BppB..etc).

A few of our forum members that I play with on a regular basis know that I typically bet an aggressive pos progression and more likely to parlay+ and full press the initial hits into any identifiable streak pattern. Then set it aside , and reenter into a different streak later on.

However I treated the Banker 9iar above a little different once I was ahead greater than my most recent highest wager. It was near the end of the shoe and somewhere near the 4th or 5th B I was at table max as I think I entered on the 2nd B. So I went above Tmax (1800) as I capped the guy next to me for that extra 800 onto his 200. Then everyone (except two of us) colored up or scattered to another table.

I couldnt believe they would all leave a streak. Maybe they departed because it was near the end of the shoe.??? They were afraid of winning too much????? Who knows.

So I then had to regress back to the Tmax of 1k as they don't allow one to wager in a vacant  (One must cap another players bet on the same spot /have that player OK it). After regressing back to 1K I then started doing a -1% exponential regression til the shoe ended after the 9th B. I still did well but immediately was thinking: "I wish I was at Bellagios in Vegas or Beau Rivage in Biloxi,MS.

Oh well still a decent ROI from the shoe. Just last week had another good run and had to regress back instead of compounding upward at a similar low Tmax Cas. One never knows as I have also been on runs where the low Tmax actually kept me from pressing higher and locked in a nice ROI. This is more often the case(at least for me) as that hunt for  "one extra" hit can sometimes be costly.

The other player that stayed until the end was a 25ish Asian lady that I have played with in the Midwest on many occasions/at various other casinos. She typically wagers something like 100-200-100. However, I noted she went 100-200-400-400-600-1K to the end. She told me later she had won about 2k on earlier shoe.
She looks about 15yo and it was funny on the 9iar B run. She would put her wager on B and then ask me in her ESL accent: "Do you think B again"? I would say yes. She had a strong Asian accent and her English was sometimes not clear.
     She said afterwards: You have the holy grail(Or maybe she said you are the holy grail), as Im
     not 100% sure after translating,  :) . Ok I made up the last sentence.

Lowlights: Busted one 4K buyin on the trip. It was several days old and had produced some good profits. I seldom ever lose a whole buyin in any one shoe as I have some cut offs that after a certain number of failed guesses I either bet into a different pattern or just stop and assess. Meaning I don't chase losses on one pattern Im guessing wrong. So this busted buyin was across several shoes as I would almost get buyin built back to even and draw down again,...etc. My hit rate was above-average on the shoe that I busted on. However, I seemed to fail on getting that 3rd press to go four or the four iar press would fail on the 5th attempt.


I will edit and maybe add other thoughts later today or on weekend. Im tired after 5-day trip plus my wife gave me a long list of "stuff u need to do" today.




Continued Success To All,
#93
I like Red Rock. This is an interesting marketing approach. Though it doesn't appeal to me I do wish them well.

https://www.casino.com/news/las-vegas/red-rock-resorts-is-all-set-to-enter-the-tavern-gaming-business/
#94
KungFuBac / 14BiggestCasinoHeists and Robberies
August 30, 2024, 03:02:15 PM
#95
alrelax above:

"...Anything is possible in the game of Bac as well as, anything is not possible. Half a shoe of pure chop-chop, 12 or 14 doubles in a row, every single natural cuts to the opposite side, every single tie cuts to the opposite side, 1s and 2s for 10-20 hands and then a streak of 12 players followed by a streak of 11 or 12 Bankers, a shoe with 50+ Bankers versus 20 or 21 Players, Etc., Etc., Etc.  Anything is possible in reality and reality is what happens all the time at the table in a casino..."


Anytime I hear a fellow bacster say "I bet this or that" meaning they have predetermined their bet selection (ie., I bet streaks, opps, blue, red,..etc, cut at that, continuance at that,...etc), I know its very probable they win <=49% of their bets.

Just last night had a shoe score as it approached the end P46 B28, with only 2 T til about the mid-70s hand. Nothing discernable besides "P is kicking behind" , and "B is locked on uno". Neither of these could have been predetermined. No P streaks longer than one 6iar and most P streaks ending @ 3iar or 4iar. Many fake outs as many kept guessing when B would make a comeback and lost their just-won money from the P dominance.

Continued Success,
#96
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
August 30, 2024, 02:47:08 PM
I like the following statement by Asym.

"...In reality any B/P succession is the source of infinite A/B sub successions, the common displayed "roads" are just 4 or 5 different "pace/geometrical" shapes of the original sequence...."



#97
Straight-up / Re: FIRST "SEVENER".
August 18, 2024, 07:38:14 PM
Thx Dane. I like that.
#98
USA is currently doing a "Vote for your top casino players club".
This contest is active until 8/26. After that just state your favorite players club and why.
Thx in advance.

The usa today voting link is below. You may need to refresh the link as the link below is after I voted today. We are allowed one vote per day I believe.
I am being bombarded with emails from many of the Players Clubs asking for my vote(Especially CET), as CET sends me 2-3 emails per day. So far I have voted for Pearls Rewards(Scarlet Pearl Cas) and MGM the same number of times.

https://10best.usatoday.com/awards/travel/best-players-club-2024/
#99
This is good news for the "show-me-state" and bordering states that havn't yet passed legislation to allow sports betting.
I suspect bordering states are rapidly pursuing this as well(They don't want to lose gambling $s) to online/other states SB betting portals.

I've noticed several casinos in nearby (Ks, Ok, Ar) have recently added or remodeled sections of their casino pubs to accommodate the expected passage of said legislation.

SportsBetting in Mizzou



Continued Success,
#100
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
August 18, 2024, 07:06:02 PM
alrelax above:

"...1s and 2s to me are very dangerous, IMO.  However, and NOT double talking, I do well on doubles.  But repetitive and IAR doubles, not sporadic 1s/2s. ..."

I agree on getting in sync with 2x2s vs 1x2s on continuous outcomes. I tend to see that as well.

*Side story regarding 2x2s:

One casino I play has for over 5years(My keeping records) produced more of these continues 2x2 steaks(by # and length) vs expectation. By length I mean it starts with 2x2(e.g., ppbb, or vice versa).  I haven't compared it with (1x2s) or anything besides the number/length of 2x2s expected per shoe.

I just know this phenomenon continues to present(along with two other players) that have monitored/noticed as well after I showed them my data. I do not know why and though I've only played approximately 5K shoes here(so small sample) this coincidence continues to hold. Maybe its due in part to us "watching" for the 2x2 series and so maybe getting on earlier. I do not know.
 
Other possible explanations we considered was that maybe the "profile" for this particular casino is that maybe they buy the exact same pre-shuffled cards/ then do a very precise inhouse shuffle each time,..etc. I do not know. I acknowledge it is only an approx 5k sample size so maybe just coincidence. Maybe in time it will decrease back toward expectation.

Hopefully it continues. This is the main reason I play here as I favor all of my other casinos over this one(Poor ventilation, clothes always spell like smoke, older building, poor lighting,...etc).
However, until this 2x2 coincidence decreases I will continue to play /watch with anticipation for the dos y dos.


Continued Success,
#101
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
August 14, 2024, 03:14:10 AM
Thx Asym for your prompt reply to my Q above.

re:Your addendum comment in same post above:

 "...You could argue that a BBB sequence should be even more shifted toward an A, so enticing to prolong the A betting at the same pattern.
Our data do not suggest to keep betting and for practical reasons waiting the BBB trigger to show up before wagering is a waste of time...."


Q--What does your data suggest for a BBBB_ sequence ??
 
For example
PBBBB_ or
PPBBBB_ or
PPPBBBB_ or
PPPPBBBB_ 

? all the same or do u treat them differently?


Thank You,
#102
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
August 13, 2024, 04:46:29 AM
Hi Asym.Good points.

On the following:
"...d) betting toward A after a couple of BB is a strong EV+ move...."

Do u mean after every BB bet for "A".

"OR"

Do u mean after a couple or more BB setups fail to go "A", THEN you wager the next BB to go "A"  ??


Thx in advance,
#103
alrelax in post#3 above:

"...Something else I have discovered with physical visualization after years of play.  Flat betting and negative progressions will lead you to loss of bank rolls.  PERIOD. ..."

    I am in agreement re: Flat betting and negative progressions.

I play with a couple players that win with negative progressions. However, they must rely on a 10K risk per day/it takes many winning sessions to approach the 10K risk. They seldom win more than 3-5units net and frequently jeopardize their buyin.

I do not notice any daily players winning consistently with Flat betting. Though, I don't watch everyone and don't ask them if they are net+ or net-,....etc. So possible I guess.

I do see some winning more days than not with Flat betting. They appear to risk a small amount for a 1-2 unit win. For example, one player risks 13 units($1300) per day/ his goal is >=1-2units. It is my opinion the main attribute of his method is the limited risk(i.e., 13units). He is very experienced and doesn't feel a need to bet very often. So I do think it can be done but my perception is that if one can put together >=3iar win streaks one will be more profitable Net+ by utilizing a reasonable PosProgression.
To each their own I guess.


An quick example of why I prefer a pos progression almost 100% of the time. Yesterday(Sat) I went to the casino as I had some free play and gifts that were (use it or lose it).

I keep meticulous records and my hit rate for the first session across two shoes: 13W,10L. My net win was 7.2units.
Another session across two shoes was 8W, 10L. My net win was 4.7 units. Neither session was eventful really. No long win streaks for me. Mostly just routine shoes with typical swaying back/forth.
My buyin was never in jeopardy. My point is that if I had FLAT bet my overall net win would have been (+1unit).

My advocacy for a reasonable positive progression is that in average shoes one can still pickup a net+ and if one gets on any kind of a WinIAR(In-A-Row) streak of >=4-5 hits in a row (same or not-same events) on a pospro one can win >=40-60% of buyin.



Continued Success To All,
#104
KungFuBac / ?Should Baccarat Be An Olympic Sport?
August 10, 2024, 03:52:22 PM
?Should Baccarat Be An Olympic Sport?

     I will make a proposal to the IOC(International Olympic Committee).

For a variety of reasons I have not watched the paris olympics. Partly due to the (6 hrs) time difference. Partly due to not understanding some of the "sports".

However, I have watched some youtube et al channels replays for some of the highlights.
Cole Hocker winning the 1500M was impressive. Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone was impressive and she seems like a class act. Femke Bol has been impressive(Her slogan could be: "If your not Dutch your not much"). The Cuban wrestler (M. Lopez) winning 5 consec olympic Gold medals /then retiring by leaving his shoes on the mat was great. I think he is 41 or so. Impressive for an old guy.

As I skimmed through the channels trying to find certain highlights from the previous days results I ran across some sports being shown I've never seen(or heard of until now).


Womens Breaking ??
I don't know what this is. Not sure on how one would qualify. Im guessing not all countries offer this sport.

Boulder and Lead??
I don't know what this is. I didn't see this sport but saw the event name and pondered what this entails. Maybe players seeing who can heave a rock-boulder or ball of lead the farthest??

Syncronized Drowning??
Im not 100% sure on the objective here. I scanned through the channels and paused a second at this event being shown. I saw two feet sticking up out of the water.(All one could see were toes, feet, ankles, and calves). Im guessing the athlete was upside down. It appeared the toes and feet were moving to music. My highschool and college didn't offer this sport.

Several other "sports" that I didn't see. However, based on the name alone Im not sure how a score was determined and how we would decide the winner or loser.


?Should Baccarat Be An Olympic Sport?
     So obviously my proposal for Bac to be offered as an olympic sport is not too far fetched.
My initial thoughts would be to do it "Midi" style. This way it could be shown like the hours of WSOP on TV is now. The cameras could show us bending the edge of the card corner. The cameras could show our chip totals/ maybe first card for each side,...etc. Maybe show the players anticipation awaiting our 3rd card draw. They could show each players height and weight and favorite food,...etc. Im just brain storming at this point.

My only concern is that if the IOC does indeed accept my proposal for Bac. Then, this would leave it open for other sports such as Spelling Bees.
I think ESPN already shows this sport on all their sports channels. I could just see some 5th grade girl from India making it to the finals against me/ talking smack. I would demand the IOC make her first word: Bakaratte.



Continued Success,




#105
Gizmotron / Re: Gizmotron you around?
August 10, 2024, 03:06:52 PM
Re: Gizmotron
I don't know him /never played with him. He has alot of fine posts, IMO.

I've reviewed many of his posts. However, since I have never focused as much time on roulette (vs Bac) I didn't take the time to discuss with him.
He is vague on some of his approach (Maybe on purpose as many + players choose not to embellish 100% of the recipe to their "secret sauce"). However, he offers enough that one can still glean some of his approach. Just my opinion.

I play Bac(and a little roulette) with an octogenarion that is probably the only person I know that has successfully made a living playing roulette. He knows Gizmo and communicated with him in the past. He has played with him and knows one of his family members. He has said "gizmo knows some stuff" about roulette and considers his writings helpful.

Personally, I am not 100% clear on exactly how Gizmo plays but find his posts worthy of further study.


Continued Success,