Hi AsymBacGuy--another excellent post. I agree 100%(Especially the last sentence in bold below).

Asym above in post#1203:

"...The best #1 example not needing any study is the B>P math propensity (which of course doesn't erase/invert nothing), so B bets are better than P bets.
Unfortunately, in reality B bets are "less worse" than P bets and sometimes that's not even true (no commission tables with B being payed half when winning by a 6).

Trying to forecast a more likely B apparition than expected based upon precedent patterns is a worthless effort. Verified one million of times.

The B propensity is mostly based upon the B4 and B5 initial points meeting a P drawing hand and those situations aren't going to come out so frequently. Meaning that the majority of B bets are just a waste of money (even though less money is wasted than at P bets).

Therefore if some patterns are long term more likely than others and capable to erase/invert the HE, they must also incorporate P hands.
  ..."



Continued Success,

This may be an interesting case.

https://cdcgaming.com/brief/lawsuit-alleges-wheel-of-fortune-slot-game-bonus-wheel-is-rigged/

Follow up to alrelax OP up above.

"...Within about a minute at most, security officers and a couple local law enforcement officers all came running over.

Just before the officers came over, the guy got in at least two more full face smacks each time the other guy attempted to get back up. They both got quickly handcuffed and taken out off the casino floor. Several floor managers were over at the table and told everybody not to touch any chips and they were calling security ..."


    Last week I was talking to a veteran dealer and telling her about the above story and asked if she had ever seen that between Bac players. I've know her and her husband for many years and they both dealt games in Vegas for about 15 years and 9 of the vegas years in Hi-Limit rooms. They transferred to Colorado a few years ago and now working in Midwest,USA.  Neither said they witnessed Bac players actually throw punches but witnessed several incidents where they would have if table mates or friends didn't get between them.

She said the one of the closest encounters was in the hi-limit room where a high roller became angry after busting a buyin at the end of his long losing streak. He shoved the shoe at her and into her lap/ threw the MIDI cards at her striking her in the chest/face. She said another player next to the Whale "card-throwing"  man jumped up and started to punch him. Security came over and intervened immediately and then told the Whale to come with them. At first card-throwing man refused until security told him they would cuff him "right there right now". He followed security a few feet away to edge of room and after speaking to him a minute or so they cuffed him/walked him out.

She said he was a jerk as he often would blow cigar smoke in her face if he lost a hand/never tipped. She said supervisors later asked her if she wanted to file charges against him. She declined and said as long as he didn't play at her tables she was OK. She said it surprised her they were willing to file charges. According to her they usually let "Whales" get by with anything.

That's crazy. Good job by the police. I would not want to be in law enforcement. My tolerance level for nonsense would be tested every day.

*With the legalization of Cannabis in many states there has been an increasing problem and huge uptick of people entering hospitals' ER with Scromiting --Cannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome (CHS). Vomiting and uncontrollable screaming, yelling, and crying.

Thx AsymBacGuy for your prompt reply to my Q / additional intel. I will have to read your addendum  post re: 3/3+ streaks and (1-125 results) a little more thorough.  It was late last night when I skimmed through it / not 100% sure I understand it clearly. I shall follow up on that topic in a day or so. Thx in advance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I agree with you on the 2s theory as well as the "clumping" of 3/3+ . I see this clumping quite often (especially after singles or  "opps" with maybe only a 2iar dispersed in a couple places.

*Side Note
Last week I had a 6-deck shoe where P was stuck on 1 IAR(in-a-row) for 11 consecutive events(i.e., P had 0 columns greater than a single P), during that series. Then for the next six columns after P finally broke the curse  it went >=2iar(PP) or greater in its next 6-7 columns I believe(5 Piar was the most in that clumping group).

     I noticed the 11 iar P failing to go 2iar on the second event I believe, won the next two events(i.e., wagered B), then I believe on the 5th P1iar I saw something else and wagered P to break its rut. It did not. Then at or near the 7th P1iar I wagered for P to go 2iar and the same after 8th(again I lost) as P stayed at 1iar. I aborted the mission and just waited until that 12th P1iar finally went 2iar. That's when the aforementioned clumping started. I picked up a few wins in that clumping group but nothing really significant regarding putting together several wins iar.

I sometimes find it favorable to see an event start happening when it has "NOT" been happening for awhile. Sometimes I can grab a couple Ws at that 2nd,3rd, or 4th event. Then I watch for something else that has been HOT or NOT and wait for the HOT to become NOT and the NOT to get HOT. 

Thx again Asym,


Continued Success To All,

Thanks Asym

"...is so important to focus our attention about ranges splitted into expected ranges and actual ranges..."

To clarify do you mean gaps or distance between said events when you use the word "ranges"  vs the expected distance between events(whatever the event one is observing)


Thx,

That's certainly atypical for the Bac tables. I've never observed a physical altercation at the Bac tables(ever). A few exchanges of curse words (or what I perceived as curse words as I didn't comprehend the language). However, I was fairly confident it was not greetings or salutations. Never have I witnessed fights between BACers.

I once saw five get into a physical altercation at a Kansas City, Mo casino. It was near a Craps table(which was two tables and 20 feet or so over from my Bac table). Three women got into it over one of them being a mistress or girl friend to the others boy friend(or husband),and I guess one showed up unexpectedly(or that's the story I heard from a security person).

The three women were slinging each other around by the hair/trying to land punches though not with much success. Then one of their boy friends tried to break it up(Which then caused the other male to get involved). The two men threw a couple half-effort punches, and shoved each other a little/then tried to pull the girls apart. It took about 8 security persons to break it up /then two of the females were still fighting/grappling on the floor. I would have probably scored it a draw    .
Most of the Craps players just scooted out of the way a little and kept playing. They would glance at the fighters just to make sure they were not going to fall into them,lol.

Its been my experiences that most Asians are a well civilized group, especially at the Bac tables(Non-Asians too). Most Bac players in general seem to have above-average self control and less reactionary vs some of the other types of gamers. Just my perception as I've seen several verbal altercations between BJ or other card game players near the Bac tables

The above post by alrelax was a crazy event but it seems like they did a decent job of getting it under control. It appears they had been trained on what to do in such event.

    *I was in a casino once and a tornado started coming through/ just about that time they blasted the sirens throughout the city and the casino announced for everyone to go to the basement. At that time the lights flickered and the power went off. Every dealer at every table game just sprawled their whole body over the chip rack /told the players "Do not touch your chips" and step back at least five feet. Generators came on in about 15 seconds and after lights came back on order was restored/people colored up and either went to the basement or headed home(I did the latter).




Cheers,

Venetian Pai Gow Player Wins 2.2 MIL

Venetian Player Wins $2.2 Million

I like Pai Gow and play it every chance I get. Most of my casinos do not offer it or only have one table(that is only open at night and or only weekends). I always walk buy to see if the progressives total warrants a little action.

progressive jackpot of $1,620,470

I am not a sports handicapper and do not have an opinion. A local sports handicapper thinks the following pick has some merit:

Player Prop (13-7, $1,054): Saquon Barkley under 98.5 rushing yards at -115 (STN Sports)

$230 to win $200.



Week 12 NFL Picks

Today 1123 is National Fibonacci Day. The series starts 1123581321,...etc. Some history about Mr Nacci and other factoids are in the link down below.

Does or has anyone used this series as a wagering series??? Any thoughts or opinions?

I played around with it when I first started gambling but never really applied it to my game. I know a few players that utilize parts of it within their system. In my opinion when playing it continuously and straight up(as written) it escalates too fast. Plus one may get their string of winning decisions early(E.G., At the 1123 levels,..etc).
I had a few rules /triggers that seemed to help but simply wasn't something I wanted to pursue further. I mostly utilized it at Bac and Pai Gow in my attempt to introduce a little volatility within a pos progression.


___________________________________________

112324 National Fibonacci Day

I bought a "bit o biti" last week. Reminder BITI(pro shares Short on BTC futures). I have purchased BITI several times over the past few years when I think BTC has increased too much too fast. BTC was at 90K or so last week. I haven't checked it today (11/17)

BITI just announced on 10/28/24 it was doing a 1:5 reverse split on 11/5/24. It was around $6 dollars or so at that time. I started following it and after the reverse split it was around $30. Its my opinion that one reason for the 1:5 reverse split is to deter investors from speculating(Though same value post split obviously easier leverage to be had at $6 per share vs $30.) Possibly some arbitrage opportunities for folks that actually own BTC and bought it several years ago.

 As BTC started rising the past couple weeks BITI started dropping. I tried to get it at 25.55 but didn't get a strike that day. Last Wednesday(11/13) my price of $25.05 was triggered. It actually dropped on down to 24.40 or so I believe. Anyway , I was satisfied to get in at 25.05 and immediately set a sell price at .0735% profit. It(like BTC) is very volatile so I never leave it just setting idle(no trades on it) as alot of movement when our markets are closed(and BTC is live).


Good luck to all investors

BUSTED BUYIN
I finally busted a buy in that had produced a 64-session win streak across approximately 3.5weeks. Immediately after the streak ended I busted another buy in a couple days later(It had earned approx. 40% of itself prior to bust). I have now started a new buy in /"hopefully" a new streak(though it hasn't earned 1.0buyin yet).

In this Loooonnnnngggg post I will touch briefly on several topics from the aforementioned three-week winning trek. So, consider it a multi session 3 week trip report:
     The 64-W streak.
     The phenomenon of streaks (W and L).
     FREEPLAY/ Winning Drawings
    Old baccarat players (Octogenarians).
     HORSERACING
     Guns/gunshows

The 64-Win streak.

This was certainly longer than most though not necessarily "hugely" in terms of overall units won.
Unfortunately, the wins were not huge (per session). This wasn't by design, its just the way it played out as I always press to my win and then do a stutter step. I then continue with a positive progression (less % than what I had to press to reach the W, or an exponential % progression) until it dies.

I haven't dissected all of the streak but I suspect what happened was that I had numerous pressed-up wagers that just cleared the bar (where I collected all of my $ plus profits), then did a stutter step and lost. This can have a huge impact on my net vs a similar streak where I lose "just before" and still have most of my outlay still in the bet.

In other words sometimes I get a lot of small quick wins when I have not drawn down (or very little) and then receive 3,4,5 or so consecutive Wiar(in-a-row), FIRST, vs drawing down at early stages of a buyin. As obviously then my highly pressed-up wagers just slightly produces a NET+ because most of it was needed to retrieve the early losing bets,etc.

Session =A session ends when I earn or lose >=2.5 base units after any and all pressed-up wagers have been decisioned/I depart that shoe or end the session. Then I apply my MM to whatever I have won(>=2.5 base units). If I lose (>=2.5 base units), then no MM to apply. I simply buyin the next session with the residual buyin remaining. If I lose buyin completely then that session(&shoe) has obviously ended/ I end with a busted buyin. Hopefully, I have earned more than said buyin PRIOR to the busted buyin.
*A session could be <=1.0 shoes and up to maybe 3-4 shoes. However, most seem to go across 1 or 1-2 shoes for a conclusion to be reached.
As most of you know I live /die with a pos progression so I generally need to see at least a 3iar to 4iar win on at least one single wager to really start compounding (so that I neutralize the most frequent loss at 1.0base units. In the streak above my longest IAR win streak on any one wager was 6iar(I was a little surprised at this and didn't realize it until reviewing my data afterwards).

     **Not included in the above win streak were three sessions (-.90base units, +1.8BU, +2.1BU) because they were not >=2.5base units. I just bought in again at next session with 99.1%buyin,1.0buyin, 1.0buyin, respectively),  ..etc, and for record keeping neither a W or L.

     ***Surprisingly no huge wins as only one single win greater than 1.0buyin(1.24buyins). My most common(mode) win was ~~ 8units, followed by 4units as the second most. I don't necessarily target a specific win but that's just the way this win streak unfolded.

     ****I had two really rough sessions where I drew down early and really had to battle my way back across >one shoe(s) for a win. Otherwise, most wins seemed to come early and easy(just not big).

     *****On the busted buyin session that ended the streak I had battled back to 86% of original buyin but never could fully recover/busted a couple shoes later. At that stage I only had $110 remaining and since it was less than my base unit I called it(& just accepted the beat down). I optimistically started another buyin at a different shoe and table. Im always optimistic and try to avoid intrusively negative thoughts and thought I would start another(This one ended with only a 40% W of buyin prior to busting).

The phenomenon of streaks (W and L).
     I continue to be perplexed about W streaks and always try to duplicate whatever I'm doing and try not to dwell (or talk) speak much about them while they are happening. I'm not superstitious really but I guess my thoughts are not to "jinx" them by thinking or boasting about them while they are presenting.

FREEPLAY/ Winning Drawings

     During the win streak I tried to play all free play available for that day or week. My thinking is that win streaks at the tables (just like in life) seem  to present in clumps. I don't recall specific Free play outcomes, but I didn't win any significant amounts. However, one of my casinos gave me an extra $100 in Promo play(I don't know why as I just noticed it showed on my card/ I don't recall ever receiving this Promo$ in the past. Most of my casinos don't give free play or promo play in table chips so one has to play them on ETG games or Slots. I always play mine on ETG games as most of my casinos have ETG like roulette or now it seems many are offering the ETG combo games where one can play multiple games at one station of 3-6 player terminals (Usually the combo ETGs offer roulette, sicbo, craps, bac, or some blackjack type game,...etc).
 
A couple of my casinos only allow FP or Promo$ to be played on slots. I seldom win on the slots (sometimes not one $1 profit) as they require one to play the FP through >=one time prior to cashing out. Even when I play it through exactly one time, I still lose it all, or most it seems.
Two days before the above win streak ended I noticed that I had $100 free play and a total $125 promo$ and thought (well I'm on  a W streak so this is a good time to play it all). I was required to play it on slots and did not get one win after running it all through. Looking back maybe this was an omen that the "Trend Must End".

Of course, my perception is they know you just loaded FP on the slot and the RNG purposefully wipes you out. Probably just a coincidence, nevertheless, I do not like slots for any reason/only play when required for free play.
Winning Drawings

     During the above 3-week+ winning streak I also won drawings of $50, $200, and $500. Different casinos and different days. I didn't even know they were doing the drawings. Most of my casinos seem to have some type of drawings or promo going on during slow times and days(early in day and early in week,...etc.). Most drawings seem to be won by slot players as they receive significantly more entries per dollar in vs table games players. Plus if a table-game player doesn't color up and leave the table their player ratings (& any entries) are not in the system(So several hours of play has not yet been rated).
     On the $500 drawing myself and another player I travel with some had just colored up at the table and had gone to the restroom. He entered the restroom as I was exiting and said, "I think I just heard your name called for a drawing". I thought he was just messing with me as we had discussed drawings a month ago and how we seldom see table players get drawn,etc.  LOL. Even though I still thought he was teasing I went ahead /walked over to the players club and collected $500USD, that was fun.

Old baccarat players (Octogenarians)

     I've mentioned before that I play with 12 other players and often travel together during the day and or cross paths with each other several times per week. Our 12-member "kinda" private club often helps each other out by playing others free play when they can't make it to a casino before the expiration of free play or promo play,..etc. We often give others our free rooms if they don't have a free room at particular casino. So a couple days a week one player may hand off several cards to another and the receiving player will play every ones freeplay/promo$. Many casinos have a use it or lose it policy and freeplay doesn't carry over past that week. Some allow the promo$ to carry over.
We have a private host that works only for our group that books us trips/rooms when playing several hours away from our main circuit if for some reason we don't have any room offers.
Our groups age ranges from about 60---89, with four members above 80. Most are full-time or semi, or have been full-time professional players with several being former full-time poker circuit players in their younger years. Most have a main game(like poker or BJ/ then a side game like Baccarat or roulette,...etc. One of these octogenarians plays roulette full time.

     The younger guys in the group(like me) often laugh at these "old dudes" because of their idiosyncrasies and habitual ways of doing things, incessantly talking about their latest medical report, the weather, and  occasionally demanding requests of others. Of course, we really like them and enjoy their expertise (in gaming as well as in life), and also realize we will some day be an "old dude" if we are fortunate. 

          So, back to my story.
I had been sick and home for three days and didn't really feel like playing long table sessions. I decided to go play all my free play at several casinos and also agreed to take others player cards and do their FP too. Most of the other players are really nice and often play my cards for me as I prefer to spend my time at the table and not traveling to another cas just so I can play my free play.

So, this 84ish guy gives me the envelope with his /several other players cards. Most of us just tell the others to play "this or that" on a certain ETG game (often roulette or similar) and most of us typically play the whole FP amount on one wager and whatever it wins (or loses) we simply wrap the ticket w a rubberband around their card and put it back in the envelope for the next time we see them or hand off the envelope.

However, this time the Mr84ish instructs me to find a certain slot game at this one particular cas(He doesn't know the name of it but "thinks" it has Ox Stampeding across gold coins on the front of the machine). Then texts  me while Im driving that it could instead be  buffalo or maybe bulls on the front. He tells me where it  is located in the casino(he was correct on this part), but it seemed like many machines had something stampeding and gold coins falling or being shot out of a canon  or exploding. I played the other players cards on ETGcraps-roulette combo game.  I then found his machine  and play his $100 through and actually won $140. I text him the results as Im departing that casino/driving to the next one. Im thinking OK, I'm making good time so far but have several other casinos on my trek.

     But no so fast KungFuBac.

Mr 84ish then texts me as Im driving around the outskirts of a somewhat large city. He asks "Hey buddy can you do me a favor and save me a drive". I want you to go downtown to XYZ horse race track and place two bets for me(horse #, in this race, at this track). He gives me two picks and asks me to place $70 on each race(From his $140 FP win). He spends a lot of time researching sports bets as well as certain horse race tracks and has a really good strike rate. So when he has some picks we often pay attention. Personally , I do not have much expertise in either.
 
I agree even though it is about 45mins out of my way and in the middle of a city that I haven't been downtown in about 15years. My google maps can't find the horse track and it and keeps directing to the loading docks of several massive expos center pavilion-sized buildings. Im looking for a large horse track with fans in the stands. Instead, he wanted me to go to a nearby OTB(off track betting) simulcast building. I finally saw a forklift operator and ask him which building. Its about 400yards away (by foot) , otherwise, requires about a ½ mile radius trek around several city blocks to reach the entrance side of the building. Plus most of the front parking lots appeared full so I assumed there may be a college basketball game going on or some other event in one of the buildings(& I may not find parking or have to pay parking for about 10mins,...etc).  I decided to just park and walk through an alley to the OTB horse simulcast facility.
I do so and enter a huge gymnasium type building with about 15 massive screens, a couple hundred individual  tv monitors kiosk desks, smoke-field, and dark. It seemed like most of the patrons were smoking and or drinking buckets of beer, or both. But most were cheering and seemed to be having a great time. I finally found the tracks he indicated and lucky for me the races were about 10mins from post time and the races were at different tacks but near the same start time. I didn't even buy a program as I had no desire to hang out here any longer than required. I decided to match his picks and also entered an additional $100 ticket on each for myself.
Im thinking good I can get this over with and be back on the road in 10-15mins.

Not so fast KungFuBac

     The first pick was game but  finishes 2nd and was off the pace about three links. So close but no cigar and Mr84ish is -$70 and Im -100 thus far.
His second selection goes off at or near 3/1, and appears to get the Win but it's a photo finish. Great, so now I have to wait an additional 5-7mins for the photofinish. It is determined our pick has indeed won. Then I get to stand in line for another  5mins as everyone  with winning tickets are in line trying to get paid. I won $290+ on this pick thx to mr84ish.

I start the (400yard) walk back to my car and decided not to text Mr.84ish the results yet as Im sure he was watching from his recliner at home. Plus I was thinking of the quickest way to get back on the turnpike as google maps could not find this place.
Not so fast KungFuBac.
When I return to my car I realized mr84ish had texted me(but to the phone I keep in my car) and not the one on me.

It starts off with "Hey Buddy" (That is always a clue,lol), and he goes on "If you win the first race don't place the bet on the second pick". Of course too late and a moot point at this stage. He then continues with another text: "Great win on the ponies I hope you got some of that. I need you to do me a huge favor: There is a gun show going on in the stadium next to the OTB simulcast—its just a block away. I would sure appreciate if you could take a couple mins and run in there and pick up a Smithfield ____, 9mm magazine,...etc and the booth is in the far back corner—I've bought gun parts/ammo from this vendor,...etc. He is a good guy and tell him its for me,...etc..

Im thinking WTH. Of course this "gunshow" is about 500yards from my car/ about 100yards from where I just departed. I realize this is why the parking lot was full of cars. I agree/ decide to just jog back as I have on casual slacks/loafers I hadn't been to the gym in four days/ the day was nice. So I head back and enter the building($15 cover charge),lol, and OMG  there must have been at least 1000-1500 booths selling gunsgunsguns , gun ammo, gun parts,all things guns...etc. I finally walk about 300yards to the back corner and realize the vendor has already closed and many of the other vendors were also loading up supplies(I don't know if this was last day of show or just the  end of the day) as apparently this gun show had been going on for 2-3 days. 

So no gun part for mr84ish.

I jog back to my car and was almost afraid to check my texts(Mr84ish probably sent his Walmart grocery list). Hey buddy can you run by Walmart,...etc,LOL.

He is actually one of the nicest guys you will meet. Always trying to buy you dinner, often buys all the players at the Bac table a beverage when he leaves,...etc.

Anyway, I finish the day going to the other cas and playing everyones free play. My free play didn't do anything signif at the remaining cas. However, one of the others won $200 on a $100fp @roulette.
 I actually played two short table sessions and won 3+ and 4+ units later that day as they came quickly.


My W streak ended a couple days later and a new one started(&still going).


Thx for reading.

Thx Vic--the new color scheme and banner looks great. Maybe it has been this way for awhile and I hadn't noticed.


Cheers, kfb

"...Well, let's face it, games can be thrown by certain people with financial interest in them...."

I agree with the above.

My concern in todays world is college sports(BasketBall,Football,..etc) with all the NIL deals in recent years. Much more opportunity for disgruntled players to sell out for a few $. Its too easy to throw games or shave points(Win but don't cover the spread,...etc). Then simply transfer at the end of the year to another college. Maybe even get a better NIL deal at the next university. Rinse/repeat.


Continued Success,