Hi AsymBacGuy/hope you had a good week at the tables.

re:Your post awhile back about your approx edge of 3.46% net as shown in the excerpt below. I meant to ask you a question back when u posted but it was late at night /I guess I forgot about it.

Q: Is this 3.46% correlated to the ACV of 3.46 or just coincidental???
Thx in advance.
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From post #1233

"..Our estimated edge

Since we cannot use our algorithms in real play and not trusting (mainly for technical reasons) online games, we're forced to approximate at best an already approximating way of considering an average card distribution. Nonetheless at the end our average edge lines up at around 3.46% after vig.
It's a real big advantage but unfortunately performing huge fluctuations related to the actual shoe card distribution..."

Hi RouletteDevil

"If anyone out there who still uses this forum, anyone playing the Nolley Molly on the dozens? "

Personally I do not play the nolley molley/ play very little roulette. However, there are a lot of good posts/discussions on the forum.
A poster Gizmotron (aka gizmo) studied roulette for decades and posted many good essays here(maybe on other forums too but not sure). I do not fully grasp 100% of his methodology. However, I play Bac with a professional poker player that has found a lot of success from gizmos writings(He plays roulette about 20% of his table time).

The past few years have been very lucrative for him @ roulette. He reads on this forum though I am not aware of his posting on this forum. I will try to coax him into posting his thoughts on gizmos' methods. Maybe other rouletters will add some thoughts about gizmo et al systems.



Best of luck to you

I find the part in bold very interesting:Baccarat hold was 26.7% versus 16.4% in the prior year...

Baccarat offering wagers with a H.E. at approx 1.15% yet a hold of 26.7%.


 Nevada/Las Vegas first quarter
"...For the Las Vegas Strip, table game hold was 18.9% versus 14.8% the prior year. Baccarat hold was 26.7% versus 16.4% in the prior year..."



https://cdcgaming.com/wall-street-bets-vegas-strip-room-rates-golden-entertainment-penn-entertainment-nevada-las-vegas-first-quarter/

Hi Asym

"...So less is more, by any means. Meaning that lower is the amount of our bets better will be our "precision" of being more right than wrong. At the cost of missing some profitable situations that anyway itlr will save us a lot of money...."

     I concur. This is one of most important attributes a successful player can posses(i.e., selecting or shopping for the best value bet).
I observe many players approaching the game like someone entering a shopping mall on payday. They buy a lot of merchandise(bets) that are not priced at a good value.

One should look at baccarat wagers just like shopping. Sometimes the wager is worth more than what we pay for it and sometimes wagers are selling for a price greater than their value. Optimally we should shop to pay $48 for a $52 dollar wager. Sometimes there are even better deals. However, often there may only be a half dozen or so good deals per shoe.

Cheers,

The old western world adage: "God Created Man And Colt Made Them Equal."
Of Course referring to Sam Colt(In the mid 1800s he formed what later became Colt Firearms Co.).

A link below showing the best concealed carry weapons for 2025.

*Do any of you put forth extra effort to protect yourselves traveling to/from your casinos. What do you do if you have a large win and must walk or travel to your hotel off premises? Maybe you don't want to leave Front money at that particular casino/don't want a check,..etc. Maybe traveling home at night with large sums of cash? ETC??

Obviously one is not allowed to carry a weapon into a casino(At least not that I've seen in the USA).

**An interesting incident at a casino. Several years ago I was playing at a casino near Joplin,Mo. USA.
This was a small casino and the only two Bac tables were adjacent to the only Craps table. I was positioned approx 20' from the  craps table and my view faced most of the Craps players from the front. So I could also see the floor area behind them. There was a large floor area and all of a sudden I see three large security guards walking across the casino floor. They were rapidly approaching /toward the backside of the craps players standing three to each side of the stickman.

I could tell something was about to happen from the focused and serious look on the security officers face. However, I just thought maybe someone had stolen other players chips or maybe a pickpocket had been flagged by security cameras,...etc. The three security officers walked directly behind one of the stuff players without hesitation. One officer on each side of the player and positioned their legs against his and placed their hands on top of players shoulder as if they were going to face plant him over the craps table. The third security officer pulls his gun(looked like a 38 or similar revolver). He puts the barrel into the players back and says: "If you move an inch I'll kill you."
Of course everyone was watching at that point and all table games nearby had suddenly stopped. They secure him against the table/ remove his gun that was in a concealed small-of-back holster(That I guess was showing through his jacket). He also had what looked like a 15" hunting knife on his side in a leather holster. They walk him away after removing his weapons and contents from pockets. I heard later through a dealer the arrested player just claimed he "forgot" to remove his CC weapon. The knife was legal. I recall thinking this is like the old wild west days. Supposedly that casino utilized some sort of metal detection and the main entrance but this guy entered through the parking garage area. I have never noticed metal detectors at this particular casino(To this day). I heard they banned him for 90 days/ he received a fine.


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https://gundigest.com/handguns/concealed-carry/best-concealed-carry-handguns

2025 Best Concealed Carry Guns
     I own two of the Overall Top Pick(Sig Sauer P365 9mm CC(Concealed Carry). I find them satisfactory as they are easy to conceal in a belt or leg holster.


Overall Pick: Sig P365
Runner-Up: Springfield Hellcat
Best High-end Carry: Wilson Combat EDC X9
Best Classic Carry: Glock 19
Best Budget: PSA Dagger
Best Carry Revolver: Ruger LCR in .327 Federal Magnum
Best .357 Magnum: Ruger LCRx 3-Inch
Best .380 ACP: Ruger LCP MAX
Best Easy To Manipulate: Smith & Wesson Equalizer
Best Backwoods Carry: Glock 20

"STOP doing what isn't working."

    -E.B. Tucker (Gold/other financial investments author), Tony Robbins(motivational speaker), et als.

Don't Hate Good Promotions, Embrace Them

  A good article about playing more efficiently, maximizing offers, and incentives during peak promotional periods.   

https://travelzork.com/don't-hate-good-promotions-embrace-them/

Unbelievable Luck: Witnessing the Biggest Baccarat Wins of All Time

This was a good read. I play with a gentleman that deals Bac in Tunica. I once asked him what was the best win he ever dealt. He said it wasn't the largest ever win but a young guy about 25yo bought in with 3K and in about 45mins walked with 80K. He said the player didn't appear to be following a predetermined system but seemed to be just guessing and relying on intuition. He had never seen this player before or after and he declined to show a players card at buyin.

https://cardpaymentguru.co.uk/biggest-baccarat-wins/

Good topic and discussion lovepreaks. I look forward to your further discussion with AsymBacGuy.




Continued Success,

Key statements from Konnikova:

"...Maria Konnikova isn't afraid to call out the cheating that goes on in poker, and casinos' unwillingness to deal with the problem. .."


"... Her book about cheating includes poker, baccarat, and sporting events; tennis has had some problems. Even fly fishing has..."


"When I meet people and they ask what my new book is about, I say cheating. Their faces light up and say they have a story for me." Konnikova said, laughing.  ..."



I speak with a lot of casino executives and one of their main concerns is the collusion between player/dealers. This goes on all the time and often is a large syndicate or group of players in a specific region of the USA.

I play Bac with an octogenarian that has played with many of the all time greats in poker. Most of  you from the Poker circuit would readily recognize his name. According to him many players constantly try to cheat or "fudge" a little(Not just poker players but Bac, roulette, craps,..etc). It is his opinion most casinos know who they are but just choose to monitor for awhile until they can ID more in the syndicate.


https://cdcgaming.com/maria-konnikova-poker-champ-describes-humble-beginnings-and-cheating-problem/

This is the main point of the link:

BetMGM and Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City are announcing the launch of Dual Play Baccarat. Customers on BetMGM Casino can now play at the same tables with players that are at the physical Borgata Atlantic City.

Evolution Gaming is partnered with both BetMGM and Borgata, which will bring the action to those who wish to play at online. Cameras will be displayed at the tables, making it a first-class, and real-time experience for those virtually. The game is played with a human dealer at the Borgata.


     Personally I would find this acceptable. IMO this could be the wave of the future. I have been discussing a similar setup with an indian tribe in the Midwest. They have several casinos within one region of one state/another just across the state line. The above would be easy to implement. The feedback Im receiving is the CEO of gaming operations does not like the volatility from the Baccarat Hold vs other table games. Meaning Bac players wager much larger vs other games.

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https://www.playnj.com/news/betmgm-and-borgata-atlantic-city-introduce-omnichannel-dual-play-live-dealer-baccarat/87823/

Top March Madness Contests and Bracket Challenges in 2025

Im a big fan of college basketball/ will watch many games during the next couple weeks. I will enter several of the following contests(Most are free) so the EV is great. Good luck to all.



https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/best-march-madness-contests-free-real-money/

There is a great quote near the midpoint of the article. It is in a green square and begins with "Captain Jack."



https://www.casinoreports.com/gambling-tilting-winning-need-name/

Top casino scams of the year unveiled at World Game Protection Conference
* If one scrolls down in the article it also shows links to the top 2022 /2023 scams. Many are still making the top-ten list.


https://cdcgaming.com/top-casino-scams-of-the-year-unveiled-at-game-protection-conference/

Asym above in post#1252

"...It's a honor for me to be here sharing ideas with KFB and Alrelax (and some others), true real world class experts (and foremost real players as we are)..."

Thank you AsymBacGuy. I learn a lot from your many essays(older posts too). I like that you elaborate on your topics. As many of your underlying theses are not the typical cookie-cutter or simplistic type ideas often observed on forums.

Keep up the good work.