Thanks Schoolman and esoito. I read through the staking plan.

First look, it is very rigid. Second look, I feel something is basically wrong. There seem to be no correlation between the odds and the liability. It all feels a bit erratic. What are your views on this laying MM?

For example anything below 3.5, your liability is X. Then at 3.6, your liability should further increase as you are betting against the odds, instead it decreases. Would like to understand expert views on why.

Also, while i was doing a bit more research, i am seeing two distinct methods. Either fixing the liability or fixing the return during the staking. What would you recommend and why?

Till Muggins turns up.

1400 - Catakanta, Winning hunter
1430 - Cosmic ray
1500 - Lady Guinevere, Miniskirt
1535 - Francos secret, Sea tiger, Hope and fortune
1610 - Lady Brigid, First in command
1640 - Lady Marl
1710 - roskilly
1740 - Rideonastar, Bella Verana

Quote from: Agesta1 on October 11, 2014, 06:25:32 AM

Good luck Agesta for your next bets.

Quote from: esoito on October 12, 2014, 01:39:10 AM
This software looks like it's ideal for parlays:  http://www.compound-magicpro.com/

The video on that site is an eye-opener!

Interesting. But probably, i was understood wrong may be because of the topic. I am not talking about a simple accumulation but a bit more sophisticated than that.

My basic aim is to win 1% of my bank at varied levels across the system. At the same time, I don't want to get doomed losing a big amount and then collecting them using small parcels and sweating over it. My premise is simple looking for sure bets that also provide value, something in the range of 1.1 to 1.2 with the book makers but the actual value is even less than that. Something like Sir Frankel winning a race in his hey day or England beating San marino in a foot ball match or Novak Djokovic beating Rohan Bopanna or Australia beating Kenya in a cricket match.

Then split and dice your bankroll as you see fit with a fluid build up within a particular set of rules. Probably it will get clearer as I progress along with the bets I present here and staking plan before the event starts.

Following infographic will give a good view of how am approaching this.

[attachimg=1]

Laying the horse is not the same as backing the horse some say. Some say the skills required are different, the approach required is different and the money required is different. There are similarities but at the same time there are differences. I will try to pull together my thoughts around laying and my attempt at this stream of horse racing in this topic. I am sure there are successful layers in this forum and there will be an odd one who will pitch in.

What is my understanding of laying
First of all I thought I will get my understanding of laying right. Laying is when you bet for an outcome to lose. Lets say there are 4 horses in a race. If you bet for horse 1 to win it is called backing. If you bet for a horse 1 to lose, it is called laying.

How does the payout work
Frankel is a horse which is running a race as a favourite on odds of 1.28. This means that if you back the horse for winning a 100 bet will return you 28. However if you want to lay Frankel, then the reverse happens with the same equation. You will pay out 28 if the horse wins and win 100 if the horse loses

See another example. Horse Chookies lass is running the race at 4.0. If you back this horse with 100, you will gain 300 if the horse wins. However if you want to lay, the reverse works. A win will result in you losing 300 and a loss of this horse will result in you netting 100.

A simple formula is dividing from 100 the odds and then subtracting from 100 to see the amount you will invest.  For example for odds of 4.0

100/4.0 = 25 the amount you will win
100- 100/4.0 = 75 the amount you will lose if your selection wins.

I hope my understanding is right.

This is my humble attempt at doing parlays in Sports betting. I have a capital of 100units.  I will try to parlay them over a series of continuous bets are really short odds. I don't know whether it will work, but this is an idea i have been pondering over some time and it has worked well on paper so far. It has great potential though.

So it goes like this, the whole capital is divided into 10 parts, each carrying out its own parlay. We finish once we have reached 1000 over the capital that we started with or when the whole capital is wiped off.  Has anyone done something similar in the past? Feedback, views most welcome.

Italy v Azerbaijan - Italy to win - 1.12
Italy v Azerbaijan - Over 1.5 goals - 1.14
Roger Federer v Julien Benneteau - Roger Federer to win - 1.2
Novak Djokovic v David Ferrer - Novak Djokovic to win - 1.13
Belgium v Andorra - Over 2.5 goals - 1.17

The purpose of this post is not to tip, but to gain feedback and track progress on a specific way of approaching betting with a slight twist, which is long proven to be a losing way to approach.

It has been a week since i have started this topic. I thought i will give an update on where I stand as it is useful to take stock of things. For starters, it has been a really lucky week, but i stand disclaimed that this is mere luck and might not continue. Only time can tell.

Total recos - 58, Wins - 13, Level staking profit - 94.55 (without Betfair commission on Betfair SP)

For the detail oriented, please find below.
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I hope Muggins comes back fast. Till that time, i will post some longshots for you to ponder.

[attachimg=1]

[smiley]aes/surprized.png[/smiley]Todays longshots in Ayr

5:40 - Pats Legacy
5:10 - Our boy Jack
4:10 - Chookies Lass
3:40 - Live dangerously
3:40 - Goinodaethat
2:40 - Classic flyer
2:40 - Agadoo to place
2:10 - Royal Regent, Go dan go to place

Wolverhampton
5:20 – Luna mission, The fairy
5:50 – Yard of Ale, Roadmap to place
6:20 – Colours of glory, Verchild lad
7:20 - Premio Loco
7:50 – Blue valentine
8:20 – Exclusive dancer to place

Any one here do their own betting sheets before the races and compare with market to do betting?

I was pondering over a comment from muggins sometimes back. So decided not to post anything yesterday. And you know what, bang!

[attachimg=1]
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Anyway, as Muggins seems to be busy, I have decided to post some longshots. I am no good as muggins and have no history, so try it with caution and use these as indicators.

1:55 Navan - Aerialist, D and Js Child
14:00 Ludlow - Aristocracy, Guard of honour
14:20 Nottingham - Mutrakez - Place
2:25 Navan - Kano's Girl
14:50 - Nott - Flickas Boy
15:00 Ludlow - Make the most of now
15:20 Nott -     Alhamareer, Potetic license. Also Poetic License for place
15:25 Navan - Dancing Noretta - Place
15:30 Ludlow - Cash for Steel
15:55 Navan - Mohayeed
16:25 Nott - Shalimah, Paddy's motor bike - Place
16:30 Navan - Rocky beier
16:35 Ludlow - Sunblazer
16:55 Nott - Lord franklin
17:00 Navan - Bazaar
17:25 Nott - Character to place
17:30 Navan - Comtesse
18:00 Nott - Hallingham, Front line phantom, Automotive

Good day. For those interested in history, I am doing -3.01 from 5 races.


Windsor – Going Good to soft
Well, this is a race course where you have an 8 shaped track like Fontwell. Races normally happen on Mondays and it's a flat track. I would highly recommend watching "Last orders" movie. Good watch. The course is still remembered for Richard Hughes winning 7 out of 8 races in a day October 2012. However the key stat that is of importance is that bookies hate this course. Yes, it has a high % of outright favourites winning with closer to 60%. So watch out for the market and the odds.

Starting the day at 1:50, it is hard to look beyond Oscars journey and Pharoh jake. Pharoh jake's experience is going to see this through and it is going to be a close call. First rebellion has attracted a penalty and even with the experienced of the lot in Ms Nicholls at the saddle, it is going to be a difficult proposition. As an outside bet, i am pondering over Speedy Rio. With rain on the cards, it is going to be an entirely different surface frm what this 3yo has run earlier.


Following this is the 1420 Maiden stakes race. Rocky rider is a short favourite. However, Andrew balding is not having a great run recently following a recent death in family and Andrea Atzani not known to be good with 2yo. That takes me to the Richard hannon duo of Envisioning and Harbour patrol. Price wise Envisioning appeals better to me, but track wise Harbour patrol sounds better. But am reserving Richard hughes for Tobacco road and wordismybond for later in the day.


Another maiden stakes. Favourite is David probert's Master apprentice. David Probert has a habbit of messing up with favourites in Windsor, and with some great new comers in line, i think this is another race for that mess-up to happen. While Dannyday is of obvious interest coming from Michael Stoute and Ryan moore combination, my money is on Firmament. Trainer is having a hot streak and is really good with 2yo. Ryan moore has preferred Dannyday and hence they had to settle Jimmy Fortune. But the horse reallly stayed well at yarmouth and a longer trip should suit.


For 1550, it is an interesting combination. Longest distance in Windsor, some big names. I would have preferred Placidia, but he has been declared a non-runner. Tobacco road hasnt performed well recently and might be down to the conditions. A winner back in this track in April, he has also found his feet in the Salisbury event last week with Richard hughes. Surely should be thereabouts again. Another interesting one is the favourite Norway cross. The horse just loves this condition, but has disappointed since the Pontefract win. Festival theatre is another notable horse in the race, but will be only watching it for now.


Then comes one of the races with some long odds at 1650 5f nursery. It is going to be a very close event. Equally fast, Field game, Ivors rebel are some notable entries. But the ground is deteriorting as I write this and I can see it raining heavily outside. The race is going to be the last but one in the course and the ground is going to deteriorate. Majestic hero makes good appeal on this grounds.


The rest am just going with the market favourites.

For the lazy ones,
1350 - Pharao Jake and Speedy Rio
1420 - Envisioning
1450 - Firmament
1520 - Dalgig
1550 - Tabacco road
1620 - Annas vision, Lady Brigid
1650 - Majestic Hero
1720 - Shamas Crown

Thanks for the comments friends. But unfortunately results don't seem to agree

Quote from: muggins on October 03, 2014, 10:49:16 AM
Todays selections attached.

A Wolverhampton win is due. Hope it's today

Hey muggins.  Missed  your selections today