Our members are dedicated to PASSION and PURPOSE without drama!

Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - Leapyfrog

#31
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Follow the frog
October 02, 2014, 12:07:54 PM
For someone who is looking a bit more than numbers, please see here. Disclaimer - This is all written by a novice punter who has just started showing interest in this space. I will write as and when i like (not being rude, but just setting the expectations around managing my time :))


Bangor 2nd October - Going Good
For novices like me, it is a left handed fairly sharp track. Imagine a cirle and when the horses run anticlockwise in it, it is called left handed and it has sharp bends shaped like a triange rather than a circle. Jason Maguire and Richard johnson have done well in this circuit and the champion jockey Mccoy has has more wins but albeit lost a lot of short favourites making him the top loser in top jockeys. Donald McCain and Charlie Longsdon are the trainers to note. One looking for form should look for horses which has done well in Fontwell, Southwell, Kelso and Aintree. Front runners usually do well here.

Race favourites have a good P/L ratio in maidens here,  however when it comes to handicaps, outright favourites are a disaster. Joint favourites seem to do well in handicaps and 2nd favourites normally well in handicap hurdles.

Analysis paralysis
We start at 1420 Juvenile hurdles 2m1f. With four horses running there are two that stand out clearly. Final countdown and Starchitect. Final countdown has started hurdling now for a very successful yard. Starchitect was an expensive purchase and the trainer has a very good record in juvenile contests. With Jason on the saddle, it is fair to trust the favouritism.

Then we move on to 1450 Novice chase. Very small field of 3 horse. Market is speaking in favour of Gevrey Chambertin with him dropping significantly in classes. Very short price. But buck Magic is not disgraced either and trainer and jockey are on fire. Winter is their favourite month with chases, and my money is on buck magic.

Field gets bigger as we get to 3:25 handicaps. Interesting field with lots of changing hands. This is a favourite field for Tidal way having won the last two years but howeer with Noel Fehily both the times. Having a had a break to return to the favourite event he is partnering with Kielan Woods and I don't have a great feelign about it. I am eyeing Stonemadforspeed who has enjoyed a win 2 months back with McCoy albeit in a longer race. With John and Rhysflint combination eying this one entry in bangor travelling all the way from South wales, its worth a punt.

Moving on to the 4:00 handicaps, Kings grace has been in form and consistent for quite some time now, but Jason has not had lots of success riding it as Henry brooke did. But looking deep, Kings grace has a 4-4 result in Bangor which is incredible. Another flutter won earlier this month but in an easier field and doesn't make much of an appeal. The third on the field is very interesting. From a jockey trainer combination that is consistent in chases, consistent in bangor, it is interesting they bring this horse to bangor. With the kind of mark the horse is in I will be happy to put my money on it.


1630 is goig to be really unpredictable. Bonne fee is seemingly unbeatable even with triple penalty. Whatdoesthefox say has won in bangor earlier around similar mark but missed out twice since and should fall within reach. Another interesting entry is from John berry whose only entry in bangor few years back in Extreme conviction was a success who is a horse of similar rating. Russian link is no extreme conviction and historically his family owned horses have not shown much of a result. Sassanova is another one to look at. Fallen down the grades after soundly beaten in a bumper on debut, and charlie and tom pairing up, with the yards jumpers fairing well in novice hurdles, am going to back Sassanova.

Closing on National hunt flat race at 5:00 and i haven't yet got the grips on this type of race, so letting it pass, but will be watching it.


For the lazy ones
2:20 - Starchitect
2:50 - BuckMagic
3:25 - Stonemadforspeed
4:00 - Qoubilai
4:30 - Sassanova


#32
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Re: Excel
September 26, 2014, 11:14:43 PM
Thank m8.
#33
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Re: Longshots
September 26, 2014, 11:13:13 PM
Quote from: muggins on September 26, 2014, 10:28:23 AM
Thanks Leapyfrog, hopefully you are still doing well.
Doing well muggins. Day by day i feel am learning more and more. My results from today as below. Slow and steadily building up in the hopes of replicating your success.

[attachimg=1]
#34
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Excel
September 26, 2014, 01:11:49 PM
Hi does anyone know a place from where I can download horse racing cards in excel format?
#35
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Re: Longshots
September 26, 2014, 09:24:23 AM
Quote from: Albalaha on September 25, 2014, 06:26:24 AM
So, after about a month of beginning all this, what is your ROI?
Dear Albalaha,

I asked Muggins when all this started, can you please share with me the selection criteria rather than the selections in itself. His answer "NO". However he helped me in understanding certain elements of horse racing which i would not have come to know about it otherwise. He also told me that "Punting cannot be taught. One has to learn it with their own experience". It is so true.

To me the best element of this thread is the strategy. Typical betting strategy is finding the favourites on lower odds which depends heavily on getting a higher win ratio. While this might work in other sports, Horse racing is slightly different. I have been using Paddy power to bet Muggins selections and have been using betfair to do my selections based on the principles learnt. Ofcourse sometimes these selections match what muggins posts but 80-90% of times it is different from what he posts.

My basic units is 5 pounds and following is my snapshot on horse racing in betfair for the month, which is a 20% return on the initial 500. However, i also measure how much returns i have had in terms of the amount i invest. I have so far made 57 bets (57*5= 285 pounds) with a retunr of 100 pounds which gives me an ROI of 35%

[attachimg=1]

In this post earlier i had posted screenshots as well on how a typical days selections look like.

All i can say is keep up the good work Muggins.
#37
Off-topic / Re: Scotland decides - worth a punt?
September 20, 2014, 09:20:16 AM
Quote from: Albalaha on September 20, 2014, 06:19:08 AM
Butter scotch flavor. [smiley]aes/martini.png[/smiley] [smiley]aes/wine.png[/smiley][smiley]aes/tongue.png[/smiley]
Fortunately or unfortunately Butter scotch is english. Closer to scotland, but it originated in south yorkshire.
#38
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Re: Longshots
September 19, 2014, 09:09:31 AM
Quote from: muggins on September 19, 2014, 08:31:27 AM
That was not the greatest, unfortunately I sort of expected it a bit, as Leapyfrog did to I think.
Today's selections attached.
Yes, i thought yesterday was punters day, with most of the races not running with long favourites, with multiple selections filtered through your winning criteria it could have gone either way. Glad had my money on Harrisons cave and Portrade. As the day drew close, I thought you almost nailed it on Oakbank as i was watching them run. But today after a long time, I think we will at least have a double winner. I also think some of your selections will be favourites or JF before the running. Cheers m8.
#39
General Discussion / Re: Moderators
September 18, 2014, 11:14:28 PM
Interestingly, we were reviewing a client presentation today. I sell software products for a living in simple terms. I was told the following things at the end of the presentation.

- Presentation is not quite there yet and I don't think it will give us the results we are looking for.
- I think we need an outside perspective on this pitch
- It looks like we dint interact properly on the objectives of the pitch

No one told me, "the presentation sucks"
#41
General Discussion / Re: Moderators
September 18, 2014, 09:24:03 AM
Quote from: esoito on September 18, 2014, 07:30:21 AM
I'm fast running out of patience with them...
Max - It is not an easy task that you are doing.  It is a very delicate task to balance personal opinions from moderation. I am no one to comment on your moderation capabilities, but all I can say is it is a very thankless job and you are doing a fantastic job of sticking to what you believe.A moderated community is a nicer place to be.

There were questions raised on freedom of speech etc, all I can say is.
[attachimg=1]


And last but not the least, a request for the site admin. Is there a possibility that people assuming Moderation duties are given separate IDs for moderation e.g. Moderator 1, Moderator 2 etc. That will avoid members confusing personal opinions with moderator duties and will remove a lot of flak that is happening here at least from the time i have joined.
#42
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Re: Longshots
September 18, 2014, 09:08:39 AM
I have a real strange feeling on today's selections. Good luck Muggins.
#43
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Re: Longshots
September 17, 2014, 11:10:33 AM
Quote from: klw on September 17, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
The credits for your last 2 winners are less than the odds you have displayed e.g Hostile fire yesterday , the sp was 6.6 and your winnings were £53.20,that doesn't make sense to me, why is this ?
This i can answer. The bet amount was 10. If this is a win you will get 66 back. that's a profit of 56 (66 return -10 bet). Bet fair default commission charge is 5% on any profit per market. So 5% on a profit of 56 is 2.8. The final amount that will be settled for you is 53.2 (56 profit less the 2.8 commission).

Now consider instead of one selection from a race you had two selections at 6.6 and 10.5. The selection 6.6 won. The profit you get is 46(66 return - 10 bet on 6.6 and 10 bet on 10.5). The commission charge will now be 2.3 and the final amount settled for you is 43.7. Hope this clarifies the doubt you had.


Quote from: klw on September 17, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
Secondly my winners for the last 2 days show 10.5 and 9.0 when yours shows 7.8 and 6.6. Not complaining in any way, just wondering why ?
I might know why. But let me confirm the BFSP of winners yesterday. See below, Hostile fire BSP is 6.6.

[attachimg=1]

Quote from: klw on September 17, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
When I place my bets I click on the " sp " to the right of the horse on the race card , the bet slip comes up I put my stake in and click on " place bets " . I don't touch anything else. Am I doing anything different to you ?
I believe you might be using the sportsbook instead of the exchange.  In sports book, what you have to do is click the SP next to it. As far as i know it is someething that is provided by the bookies. However if you do in exchange it uses a formula based on backer and layer odds and balance it out to calculate the SP. An example of getting bet fair SP for a race today.

Select the Horse racing under Exchange option in Betfair
[attachimg=2]


Go to the race card and click on the checkbox that says Betfair SP. You will get an additional column in the middle.

[attachimg=3]

Click on SP against your selection and not the exchange numbers, and then you pray to God (just kidding) then you will be guaranteed the same price that Muggins uses :).

[attachimg=4]

Cheers
Leap
#44
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Re: Longshots
September 17, 2014, 08:51:56 AM
Muggins,

As you know I have been using this concept and I must conclude that based on the short period where i have trialled it, it is really working well. See below, and once again a big thank you. The returns are based on a 5 quid investment.

[attachimg=1]

Keep up the great work and I will be eagerly looking forward for your selections every day, as the selections are really interesting.

Cheers
Leap
#45
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Re: Why?
September 12, 2014, 11:48:24 AM
Ok. Am confused now. ;)

What is in-running.  Is it same as in-play bets?
If it's same I read that bet fair makes all unmatched bets cancelled before the race goes in play.  If that's the case then there's no advantage right?