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Messages - Leapyfrog

#76
I have used them over the last few months since I started playing and they have been fair.  I have made large withdrawals upto 50 times of the amount Albalaha mentioned here and seems to have gone through well. One should also keep in mind that the payments mainly run through automated payment runs and at times there will be issues, not only at BV end but also at skrlll end or your payment cards.  Then they tend to do manual reconciliation, but that takes long sometimes.  It depends on when those manual payment runs are scheduled so on and so forth. Some times the card issuers or the companies like skrlll delay their reconciliation process due to quarter end etc which creates an adverse impact. 

I have faced issues with known retailers, big airlines etc in this process and the key is constant communication and being polite. After all they are humans as well employed by casino and we have to trust them to get our issue resolved which might be one in 100 issues.

With respect to betvoyager I have seen that their Skype id is very useful and monitored most of the time.  May be you could try that, but that doesn't guarantee a faster turn around especially if the issue is out of their hands. 
#77
Roulette Forum / Finding the Grail
July 21, 2014, 04:46:06 PM
Beat the wheel,

There are two ways in which you need to think if you need to get a HG or if you need to lead someone closer to HG.

Find an edge -This is through bet selection. This is the simplistic and agreeable way to find a HG but very complicated to find an edge.  Edge could be obtained either through causes which are physical or mathematical. It is questionable whether such an edge could be found, but if you are after HG then nothing should be ruled out as the world is full of possibilities.

Progression - If you need to find one, and if you are relying on this to beat every possible LW combination, it is a humongous task. Just doing 3-4 sets of LW will not help. It is easy to say that i have got 240 wins and 260 losses in flat betting of ECs and hence with a good progression i will be able to win such a bet selection. Reality is no. Unless your progression is able to address long losing streaks and streaks with less distribution of two or more wins in a row, you are defining a progression for failure. You could define stop losses and address variances, but it will take you no where.

I am from the section that believes in creating an edge to find a HG and to find that edge mathematically. So all these concepts around clump theory etc interests me. If you ask in a thread how to solve a LW with a progression, while the subject is explaining how to create an edge, you are not going to reach anywhere. It is as if going into a jewellery store asking for nails. He is not going to help.
#78
General Discussion / Re: Correct?
July 21, 2014, 11:52:40 AM
Quote from: Mr J on July 20, 2014, 05:16:27 PM
If a coin is tossed 3 times and all three tosses land on heads, the PROBABILTY (odds) of the next toss coming up heads is only 1 in 16.
The "CHANCE", on the other hand, never changes and is 50% on EVERY toss.
(Its all in the wording I guess)
Ken
Ken - You are right. Don't get lost in the words. If you explain why need an answer to this question, then i will be able to clarify this better. This is the first question i had when i started playing roulette and i have got myself around it.

Let me add a simple addition to your question to explain this better and let me try explaining this with only 3 spins instead of 4 spins.

TTT
TTH
THT
HTT
THH
HTH
HHH
HHT

Out of 8 probabilities (possibilities) there are two probabilities in which HH appears in the first two spin. The next spin appearing H and the sequence becoming HHH is 1 out of 8 probable chances. Also next spin appearing T and the seuqence becoming HHT is also 1 out of 8 probabilities. So there is a equal chance of 1 out 8 possibilities for the next spin to H and next spin to be T.

This is the truth. The issue is whether this 1 out of 8 probability is something whether can be taken to an advantage. To be honest, or to be politically correct - No way that i am aware of - which doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. You expand this any number of spins, lets say 35 spins, and then you will figure out that every single pattern will have equal probability and there is no advantage of some one playing RBRBRBRBRBRBRBRB over someone playing RRRRRRRRRRRRRR or BBBBBBBBBBBB as they all have 1 in multiple chance of occuring.

To me the whole subject of probability and its application to roulette is dented with variances. At one hand you are explaining the expectation and the other hand you are saying there can be variance. So essentially you are saying if you walk down this road you will get to downtown, but it is possible that you might also stray into a jungle. Strange, very strange, it's a drunkards subject to study.
#79
Crossed 250 Games today. Next update at the end of 350 games. Base chip is 0.5.
[attachimg=1]
#80
BetJack, Just simulated this on spins from European wheel
My findings.

1. RO+BE, BE+RO is not having any impact on the dozens that is appearing.

2. LD and JD - Again seem to be no impact. Sticking to only LD, sticking to only JD, switching between JD, LD based on the LW, all variations seem to have no impact, unless you know the results in advance :). Note this is only if I take the table dozens into consideration. However, when i split the wheels into dozen sections - I started counting from 0 clockwise and every 12 numbers i marked as a dozen. This does seem to have an impact. The win % improved when switching between JD and LD based on the Lw register. But the win% was still hovering around 65.9% from 50,000 spins.

3. Sticking to the two dozen permanent. Again, no impact. In the 50,000 sample i had dozen 1 was performing poorly. So essentially only and only if you knew which dozen to pick up :)
#81
I have started a simple flat betting experiment myself as well....  Bally is the inspiration. Reached 150 games now in view casino. Will let all know how this goes.
#82
Gizmotron / Re: The Global Effect, what is it?
June 13, 2014, 03:34:39 PM
Quote from: Dr. Mabuse on June 13, 2014, 02:18:16 PM
It is NOT what one sees but what one THINKS one sees.
Couldnt agree more. I am not me, I am not who I think I am, I am not who you think I am, I am what I think who you think I am. Crazy world of roulette, couldnt get any crazier than this.

There is some rationale in this though. Thinking loud, Gizmo, if you are winning, it is not the selection that is making you win, it is your approach to game and the way you spend your money is what is making you win. That is my humble opinion. And as always I don't expect you to believe me or agree with me. You will get that trot you are talking about even by just following the last even chance.
#83
Quote from: esoito on June 09, 2014, 11:37:08 PM
The short answer is 'no'.
Thanks Esoito, thought so.
Quote from: esoito on May 31, 2014, 11:42:17 PM
Hope your request bears fruit!
Patrick, your request may not be answered here. Probably, you should check out http://www.zumma.com/
#84
Danke Hans. That helped.
#85
Roulette Forum / Re: advantage playing rare events?
June 09, 2014, 04:13:33 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 09, 2014, 04:04:49 PM
Thank you. That puts you in the camp that sees patterns in the EC's.

Gizmo, answering yes to your question does not mean that it puts me in the camp that sees patterns in ECs. The fact is I see patterns in ECs. The fact also is I don't know how to exploit them. 

Now that i have answered your question, Will you be kind enough to explain how to exploit it. Now lets say you saw the pattern last night in casino. I have a couple of questions.

Quote from: Gizmotron on June 09, 2014, 04:04:49 PM
It only takes one flat bet to try.
When do you place your flat bet?

Quote from: Gizmotron on June 09, 2014, 04:04:49 PM
The winning pattern was after every color change there was two more of the same color. I placed bets after each color change, only one for each change. I won four times before losing once. That's when the pattern dissipated.
How do you identify there was a winning pattern. Do you see such series occuring three or four times in a row and then flat bet? What is the trigger to say it is a winning pattern?
#86
Quote from: Leapyfrog on June 09, 2014, 01:09:27 PM
1445 Newton abbot racing
Laying the favourite at 2.3
All worked out good as predicted. Nomadic Storm could not keep up to the market hype surrounding his previous win and came 9l short in an interesting competition. Second favourite Respectuex came out the winner with a surprise 2nd for Mon chevalier.

Quote from: Leapyfrog on June 09, 2014, 01:31:00 PM
1515 Newton abbot racing
My vote is to lay Rolling Maul at 3.1 and back Sergeant thunder at 4.
It turned out to be three way race all along justifying the form and market predictions, but Rolling maul proved a a neck too strong  for Manjakani and it was not the day for Sam and his horse.

Quote from: Leapyfrog on June 09, 2014, 02:40:26 PM
1545 Newton Abbot racing
am going for the favourite at 2.1.
It was indeed Makari written all over in the results. One of the most predictable races in the recent past and at 2.1 represented a great value.

Quote from: Leapyfrog on June 09, 2014, 03:04:40 PM
1645 Newton abbot
Lord of dunes to place at 2.4
chancing my luck at 22.

Tortoise to place at 2.74.
1630 turned out to be a contest where winners came from unlikeliest quarters and it is the race of the day in betting terms. Bookies love such races. Our selection of Tortoise indeed did not disappoint chasing Monel to the line.

1645 didn't throw up surprises either. I was hoping for Neverownup to end the streak, but turned out that today is not the day. What a race the horse had. Our choice Lord of dunes sure did place with Kirbys glen following it.

To wrap up, all flat staking the output from the day is 1.44 units from 7 bets.
#87
Roulette Forum / Re: advantage playing rare events?
June 09, 2014, 03:47:59 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 09, 2014, 03:45:39 PM
The only fact I see is that you didn't answer my question, one that was never directed at you, I might add. You then proceded to offer up a "red herring" by asking another question. You need to get your answers from somewhere else. I'll  continue to get my answers my way.
I will steer clear if you want me to. do you?
If you don't and interested in continuing the conversation, let me try answering it your way.

"Answer this? Do you see the absence of singles or the occurrences of only one single after every color change in this stretch of spins?"
Yes and a loud YES.
#88
Roulette Forum / Re: advantage playing rare events?
June 09, 2014, 03:28:24 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 09, 2014, 02:54:04 PM
Answer this? Do you see the absence of singles or the occurrences of only one single after every color change in this stretch of spins?
BBBBrrrrrBBBBBBrrrrrrBBBrrrrBBBBBrrrrr
Gizmo the answer is a no brainer and you know the answer you will get. This is a fact.

But the question is what do you derive from this fact. I am sure you might have seen all combinations of AAAAAAAAA and AABAABAAAAB and ABAABBABBAAB and ABBABAABBAAAAB etc where A represents a series of colours and B represents a single. What are you trying to drive from this fact?

With respect to ebb and flow, as an English speaker it means to me a recurrent pattern of coming and going or something regularly becoming higher and lower. The key phrase here is "regular". To be fair, you can see one outcome peaking and dominating over the other, but do you think they happen regularly. Does that mean that if i give you 5 sets of 15 outcomes, you will be able to get into a profit betting the next 5 outcomes in these 5 sets? I would like to learn, if you are open to teach.
#89
Sure. But i am trying to understand what it means in terms of tables. Are these private rooms, with smoking and non smoking options. Why are they called touch bets. Not quite sure.
#90
1645 Newton abbot
Only today I wrote about streaks and here comes a race with a streak. Neverownup, has a streak in hatrick of wins and often I have seen a horse completing a hatrick go and on forever. In handicaps it comes with a penalty and the handicapper has not been light with a 17lb penalty. Also, the trainer is going with the saying that strike it rich when its hot with the fourth run coming in a space of couple of weeks. Will he be able to own up to such a heavy work load. I bet no. that's why i am going to go for a safer bet in Lord of dunes to place at 2.4 who carries the weight that looks fair and have had sufficient rest from his third at plumpton around a month back. A hidden diamond is Kirbys Glen who is long in the market but looks good on cards. I am putting small money on it chancing my luck at 22.

And to end the day, here is another long bet to back Tortoise in the 1630 Ayr. I am not quite sure whether dropping in distance will have a say, but definitely a dropping in weights by 9lb should definitely have a say. I am playing it safe for him to place at 2.74.