Quote from: TwoCatSam on October 19, 2013, 03:54:49 PM
Mike

Your posts are so similar to ones we've seen before.

Sam, speak for yourself, not all members. YOU may have seen posts like mine before, but evidently, since so many here are seeking the holy grail, the message hasn't been understood. And anyway, why are you suddenly on the offensive? in a recent post you said 'thanks for the enlightenment', or perhaps that was sarcasm?

QuoteYou have beat your head against the rock for years and you've decided since you can't do it, no one can. 

So it's sour grapes, then? This is attacking the messenger and totally ignores the actual valid argument that no system can win. Your attack is irrelevant to the merits of the case. Suppose I HAD been searching for years and couldn't find a winning system, would that mean that a system couldn't be found? of course not, but there are other reasons that DO establish that fact.

QuoteWe get it.  Two and two will never equal five.  The math is against us.  And on and on........

I don't think you do get it. And it's worth pointing out that it isn't obvious at all that no winning system is possible. Many intelligent (even highly intelligent) people believe otherwise, and in fact it requires quite a deep level of understanding in order to see just why there is no such thing as a winning gambling system for NE games. People tend to lump together poker, sports betting and games like roulette; to them, it's all gambling, they don't understand the crucial difference which make poker and sports POTENTIALLY beatable and roulette not at all beatable (at least using 'systems'). FWIW, I spent a lot of time years ago trying to crack roulette myself, and wrote literally hundreds of simulations. No-one on any forum gave me a plausible reason why it couldn't be done. And it wasn't that I just quit because I was tired of seeing another chart heading south, it was the insight (after having it explained to me on a statistics forum) just why, in principle, no such system was possible.

QuoteLet me pose a question:  There is a basketball court.  At one end is a normal goal.  At the other end, there is one exactly ten times the diameter of the normal goal.  Which end do you think people would shoot at? 

I don't get it. What's the point of this question? are you trying to suggest that roulette is easier to beat than sports betting?

QuoteLet me ask you a direct question:  Do you believe the person exists who makes money from roulette?

No. Not long term anyway (other than certain kinds of advantage play). Of course there are people who win every day - but they give it all back and more. What I'm saying is that there is no 'consistent winning bet' or system which can be mechanically played and return consistent profits.

QuoteLet me ask you another question.  We've all seen this:  R B R B R B  What have we not seen is that for 100 spins?  Why do some series come into the fray?  In the world of math, physics or mathematics, there is nothing saying you can get 100 R B in a row, but you don't. 

Tell me why...........

These questions are asked all the time in roulette forums. Actually, probability DOES say that 100 RB in a row is possible, but just very very unlikely. Absent a biased wheel, all the formulas of probability are remarkably accurate. The casinos rely on them for their livelihood. You can write computer programs which will verify any formula you care to simulate, so it's not just 'theory'. This is why no winning system is possible, because outcomes conform to the theoretical distribution of wins and losses and the casino's house edge takes account of ANY possible system you could dream up. So patterns, waiting for losses etc are completely ineffectual.

QuoteYou come on this forum stating the obvious as if we needed to hear it.  You intimate we are fools, stupid people, country bumpkins and on and on.......

As I said above, it isn't obvious.

QuoteTell us about Mike.  What can you do? 

Give me any system you like, I can prove it can't win. I'm also not bad at sports betting.

Quote from: Drazen on October 19, 2013, 12:05:43 PM
Oh it is, sir! [smiley]aes/martini.png[/smiley]  Excatly due to what you have said!

Regards

Drazen

Drazen, care to explain?


I'm looking forward to your explanation of how it's possible that 2 + 2 = 5!


Vagueness and obfuscation is rife in the world of roulette systems, and anyway, most people don't really know what they're doing. The starting point is usually something based on the gambler's fallacy. Hey!, THIS pattern might 'work' - give it a try! (otherwise you're just being 'negative'). 


There are literally billions of possible roulette systems, and you can't see the wood for the trees without some kind of overarching principle like probability and mathematical expectation, which cuts through the myriad possibilities and gives you a clear answer - NONE of them can work.


But ignore expectation and you're doomed to (perhaps) spend your life looking for something which cannot exist (and never realizing that it cannot exist)[smiley]cps/thinking.gif[/smiley]


Incidentally, the fact that so many systems are possible makes a nonsense of any number of hints or clues that might be handed out to eager sycophants, especially since the 'guru' has made it clear that anyone who comes up with some plausible piece of the jigsaw won't have it either confirmed or denied by him (otherwise he would simply have posted the whole system in the first place). The 'guru' must on no account give away the whole system, otherwise he will lose his position of power and influence, added to which, if the system in its entirety is posted, it will then be tested or simulated and found to be a loser, just like any other system ever devised.

Quote from: Atlantis on October 19, 2013, 11:10:02 AM

As regards roulette - would sure be great to have a surefire and foolproof winner. But I don't rely on it or need it. It's fun trying to fathom ways to beat it.

A.

Atlantis, at last, a voice of sanity!


I agree, it can be fun playing around with systems, but I'm sure that there are many here who sincerely believe that roulette and other NE games can be 'cracked', given enough time, effort, and ingenuity. Sadly, it's not the case.


I recommend learning how to write computer programs, then you'll quickly see that no system can win, and, you'll have learned a useful new skill. 

Carlitos, I was being facetious about precognition etc.


And where did that avatar come from? I didn't upload it. It's kind of appropriate though, because you have to fight to get the truth heard. I'm well aware that most people here will think me arrogant. Mine is just one opinion among many, right?


WRONG.


In the hundreds of years since these games have been invented, there has not been one shred of evidence that any gambling system actually works. It's because they literally CAN'T work. Anyone who tries to persuade you otherwise is long on rhetoric and short on logic, and is probably trying to pick your pocket.

Quote from: Francis on October 19, 2013, 02:06:41 AM

Don't count on statistics (probability & expected value) to beat this game. This is where everybody fails.

What else is there?

intuition? precognition? psychokinesis?

The biggest mistake is NOT to count on probability and expected value. It tells you all you need to know (which is, that you can't beat the game). It's not a question of a 'challenge', because given that the wheel is fair and balanced (and you can be sure that casinos make every effort to make sure that this is the case), then it's a LOGICAL IMPOSSIBILITY to create any system based on patterns and progressions which will reverse the house edge.

To repeat, it's a LOGICAL impossibility, just like it's absurd and illogical to try to find a way to make 2 + 2 = 5. [smiley]cps/noway.gif[/smiley]

It's actually pretty hilarious, if you think about what all you 'grail hunters' are trying to do here, and it's because you don't understand simple logic and basic math.

This is NOT the case for sports betting, poker, or trading because the odds and expectation cannot be calculated mathematically, so you have a chance of putting the odds in your favor, even if it's only using arbitrage.

Just 'believe' in the math; it could save you years of wasted time and effort.

[Edit:  Mike -- Go and read through XXVV's section and then you'll better understand why Sputnik was pulled up for his sweeping statement about flat betting (and the comment was nothing to do with grails, by the way).   Furthermore, the forum is NOT owned by SH.  As a newcomer you seem very eager to post criticisms (and assumptions) rather than carefully feel your way, which is what most newcomers do.  Moderator]


I'm not aware that I've posted any criticisms or assumptions. The assertion that roulette cannot be beaten by using patterns and progressions is neither - it's a FACT. As to Sputnik's comment about everyone being a liar if they claim to win flat-betting, that's not quite true. It could be that they're lying OR just haven't tested their system over enough spins.


There's an overwhelming pattern in all these roulette (and casino game) forums. It goes like this:


1. create a system which seems to win.
2. test the system and ask others on the forum to help test it.
3. test it some more.
4. discover that it doesn't win, after all.
5. goto step 1.


And I'm afraid trying to reduce the variance won't help. It's an attractive idea: if you can't reduce the house advantage then try to stop the long losing runs; makes sense, right?


Unfortunately it can't be done, because the variance is inextricably linked to the house advantage. They follow each other, so you can only reduce one by reducing the other (which is impossible because the house advantage is mathematically fixed).


The formula is this:


Fixed odds + negative expectation = long term losses


I've had a look at XXVV's posts and I see nothing there but long-winded waffle, I'm afraid. It's that kind of thing which can seduce the newbies into a long search which WILL ultimately result in disappointment.


However, I'm not naive; I know that there are vested interests here. There's money to be made exploiting people's ignorance and gullibility!


Steve H. may not own the forum but he certainly has a stake in it, otherwise why the ad? I only brought him up because in the other roulette forums he owns there is a rule that a member should not post 'hints' and clues. If someone has (or thinks they have) a winning system then they should just post it in its entirety. What's the purpose of dangling a carrot? is it just a way of getting attention or trying to control other members? Better to have a dedicated section for system sellers like at vlsroulette, then at least the process is transparent and the seller can be asked to demonstrate that the system works as claimed.


Folks, I'm not here to merely be negative. All I'm saying is: stay away from negative expectation games. There are plenty of other avenues of real speculation (playing roulette, baccarat, craps etc isn't speculation, it's pure gambling) where you can find a real edge.


On the other hand, if you're a gambler, knock yourself out. Just don't kid yourself that you can make long term profits.

Quote from: Razor on October 16, 2013, 04:43:26 PM

Thanks for the nice Pms that you sent me people but I will not answer to any of them.

And we're supposed to take your word on that?


I assume that this forum is owned by Steve H. because his ad is here. There is a rule in the other forums that no member is allowed to post hints and clues to any supposed 'holy grail', because of the possibility that said member is scamming via private messages. It works like this:


The member posts that he has the holy grail, or hints strongly that he has it, and also gives clues. Inevitably, other members will pm him asking for further details, at which point our scammer asks for money...


Nathan, you are correct. There is no way to make long-term profits from casino games (apart from certain methods of advantage play which are becoming increasingly difficult to use effectively). Anyone who suggests otherwise is either a scammer or ignorant of the math and how it works. But it seems that even the moderators here are unwittingly giving credence to the possibility that a 'holy grail' is possible, as evidenced by the comment addressed to Sputnik in a previous post on this thread:

QuoteSteady on... That last sentence is unacceptable. You don't KNOW that for certain. To say otherwise is pure arrogance. Just because you might not be able to do something does not mean that others can't !!

This is like saying that you don't KNOW that 2 + 2 = 4. Maybe, with a lot of hard work and experience, you could make 2 + 2 = 5!
Or perhaps, a one-off payment of $29.95 to some internet vendor will do the trick!


Bottom line: it's impossible to multiply a negative number by a positive number and end up with a positive, which is what every system tries to do. That's not being 'negative', it's a simple mathematical truth.


To suggest otherwise panders to gullibility, desperation, and ignorance.


[Edit:  Mike -- Go and read through XXVV's section and then you'll better understand why Sputnik was pulled up for his sweeping statement about flat betting (and the comment was nothing to do with grails, by the way).   Furthermore, the forum is NOT owned by SH.  As a newcomer you seem very eager to post criticisms (and assumptions) rather than carefully feel your way, which is what most newcomers do.  Moderator]

Quote from: Razor on October 17, 2013, 02:56:54 PM
It s funny asking me for proofs because I m not here to sell anything.

Maybe not, but you are dropping hints. Why? and isn't there a rule about that in this forum? there is at vlsroulette.com.

Of course there's no consistent winning bet. The very idea is ludicrous. This guy razor is having a bit of a giggle at your expense!


Give it up folks, concentrate on other speculative activities like poker, trading or sports betting, where the odds aren't fixed and the expectation isn't necessarily negative.