In recent posts I explained the Triplets "Hot Hand" theory which says if you make a shot you will continue to make your shots.  In other words, if you get a R it should be followed by an R.  In a future  post we will explore the opposite, if you get an R you will more likely get a B.  This would disprove the "Hot Hand" theory.

But in the meantime, let's take a look at Group of 2 Spins, Fixed RBBRBRBRB in particular.  This is a Non-Random bet selection. It simple alternates the bet form R to B to R to B etc.  Never changes, it is mechanical. This is the Game within the Game of roulette/baccarat.

Because of this Fixed bet, you reduce the fluctuations of your results.  Remember, if you get a streak of Blacks this will win 50% of the time and likewise with a streak of Red you will win 50%.  This ALWAYS will happen.

In this Game something will ALWAYS happen.  Just like the VDW, an Arithmetic Progression will ALWAYS happen.

This is the point of a Non-Random system.  You are playing for something to ALWAYS HAPPEN verses playing a random game where you are only guessing when a repeat will happen, when a pattern will be formed etc (not withstanding your years of experience, knowledge and situational awareness).

Wouldn't you rather be playing for something you know has to happen rather than guessing??

Let's look at some empirical data regarding the Group of 2 spins, Fixed RBRBRB. This will clearly show the stability of your results.

I did 2 tests of 100,000 spins.  Both test used the same data.  Flat betting on both.

One test was the Non-Random Fixed RBRBRB and the other was a Random FTL (Follow The Last).

The results are attached.

Note the FTL had a High of 189 and a low of -260 which is a range of 449.

The RBRBRB had a high of 151 and a low of -122 which is a range of 273.

This lower range stabilizes your results, therefore, you need a smaller bankroll.

The FTL almost won 5/10 sessions.  The RBRBRB won 8/10.

FTL lost -326 units while the RBRBRB won +319 units.

I hope you are beginning to see some of the benefits of a Non-Random system.

Cheers

Nick

Hi Glen,

Once again I agree that if you can win with your Decisions and Reality then keep on winning.  Everything you said is based on your knowledge and experience and works for you.

However, please do not think that yours is the only way to win.

Cheers

Nick

Hi Glen, Will be happy to read your post..

Thanks Katilla, will download and test it out.

Cheers

Nick

Let's explore the Triplets further.  As shown earlier for binary events we should get a 3/6 (50%) result but we get 2.5/6 results exposing a bias to be exploited. This is for No Zero Roulette, Baccarat or Craps which can be binary.

This is a very small EDGE but it is consistent and can best be utilized with on line casino's as you can play more spins per hour.

I used a mild progression for faster accumulation.

This is mechanical and boring.

This can be played one side only (ie, only Banker) or both sides (Red/Black).  I prefer both sides as we get twice as many bets.

Here are the rules for this 3 Spin/Hand Game:

Spin # 1:  NO BET
Spin # 2:  If Spin #1 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 1 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 3:  If Spin #2 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 2 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Spin # 4:  NO BET
Spin # 5:  If Spin #4 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 4 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 6:  If Spin #5 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 5 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Etc.

That's it.  Simple and mechanical.

We just tested this system with 100,000 spins generated by Bet Voyager No Zero Casino.  It does not matter where the numbers came from as the Laws of Math apply to all numbers, RNG or otherwise.

The attached picture shows the results for these 100,000 spins and the 66,600 bets that were placed.
We tested these in 10,000 spins increments so you will see 10 results.

As you can see even with a progression it does not generate much of a profit/spin but a profit none the less and the results were consistent and stable from one session to another.

Cheers

Nick

Hi Mike, sorry if I ramble and cause confusion.

The distinction that I was trying to make is this:

The Laws of Physics totally disregard the probabilities of the wheel.

The Laws of Math totally disregard the probabilities of the wheel.

Random does not affect the Laws of Physics or Math, hence the term NON-RANDOM.

We play the game in a Non-Random manner where PAST SPINS ARE NECESSARY.

It is an entirely new way to approach the games.

When you play a Non-Random game you are playing for something to happen according to the Laws of Math, thus you are increasing the accuracy of your predictions.

Glen has posted several threads on how math can never beat baccarat so I thought it important to go over the basic concept of Non-Random.  We need to understand what this is all about before proceeding further.

Random means anything is possible.

Non Random are limiting events.  They can be limited by Physics or Math.

A physical roulette wheel that is out of balance due to dust and dirt accumulating around the spindle would cause the ball to favor a sector. The Laws of Physics dictate that the ball has to drop in one sector more often than any other. It HAS TO HAPPEN, it HAS TO OBEY the Laws of Physics.

This is a Non Random event.  The Laws of Physics pay absolutely NO ATTENTION to the random nature of the game, nor to Casino's edge of 2.57%.  It cares less that a number will repeat on average once every 8 spins.  So what if the Law of Thirds produces 13 unhit numbers in 37 spins.

Do you see the point here?  Throw out the laws of probability and possibilities normally associated with roulette.  They don't matter. What matters is that the Law of Physics will produce results not associated with random. Gravity will make sure that ball lands in the same sector again and again.

It is easy to see why a biased wheel favors a sector and has nothing to do with the normal probabilities and possibilities associated with roulette.

It is more difficult to understand that the Laws of Math are also a Non Random event.  It too does not care about the probabilities or possibilities inherent in Roulette or Baccarat.

The first law that I explored was the VDW as outlined in Part 1 of my series.

https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-math-to-beat-roulettebaccarat/

To refresh your memory on this theory it states that in any binary event (like Red/Black, Banker/Player, Pass/Don't Pass) you will always and I mean ALWAYS have an Arithmetic Progression within 9 Spins/hands.

Just like 1+1=2, this law always happens regardless of the endless possibilities.

I am not advocating a strategy yet, I just want everyone to understand this VDW law.  If you don't just give me 9 spins/hands (without ties or zero) and I will always show you an Arithmetic Progression.

Do you understand the importance of the Laws of Math.  They ALWAYS happen.  Would you rather develop a bet selection based on probabilities or based on something that ALWAYS happens? 
That was a rhetorical question.

Before proceeding, does everyone understand the concept of Non Random and how the Laws of Math apply?  Any questions?

Cheers

Nick

Glen, it does not matter how many possibilities you have.

1+1 always = 2.

The Laws of Math still apply regardless of the number of possibilities.

Give me a little time to explain in my next post.

Hello Glen,

Due to your years of experience playing B&M Casino's I assume everything you have said is probably correct.  At least it makes sense to me. 

While the Casino's do have a built-in edge, they probably make more money off the greed and emotions of their customers.

I have very little experience nor desire to play B & M Casinos.  My experience is in programming and I cannot program a computer to play like you do.  There is too much subjectivity that I would need a massive Artificial Intelligence code which is above my paygrade.

My interest lies in programming a computer (bot) to play On Line Casinos.  To do so, I need a simple, mechanical system that has an EDGE that would use the bot's fullest potential, ie, play for hours without getting tired.

Some of you may think there is no such thing as a mechanical system that can win and that is why I started the threads on using math and statistics to get an EDGE.

For all you B&M Casino players, this is not for you. The EDGE is too small to play live.

The edge garnered is so small that you need 1,000's and 1,000 of spins or hands to realize a little profit.  We do not have the greed and emotions of customers to give us some additional cash.

I am not here to argue which way is better or worse.

I am just presenting an alternative way to gamble.

It is your choice on how you wish to play.

Cheers

Nick

Hello Gizmotron, sorry if you thought I was attacking the way you play, I was certainly not.  My point was that your method and Alrelax method were both thoroughly discussed previously but Xander and Mike's point of an "EDGE" has not been.  I am just trying to do "oppositional research" and see if we can actually get an EDGE without using a physical bias.

Perhaps Xander or Mike have an EDGE and if so, they might give us a direction to follow.

Hello Kattila, I just love exploring non-random patterns like you have outlined, however, I am a coder and I need step by step instructions in order to follow what you are explaining.  Could you kindly using just 1 pattern show what the pattern is and how you obtain a bet selection?  More details.  Thanks.

A lot has been posted by Alrelax and Gizmotron about how they win using their years of experience, knowledge of the game, situational awareness etc.

Others like Xander and Mike have posted that you need an edge.

I am not here to debate the merits of Alrelax and Gizmotron's methods, but I would like to explore Xander's and Mikes position of having an EDGE.

What is an EDGE?  Can you actually get an EDGE?  To me an EDGE would be something mathematical, statistical or physical that would turn the odds or probability in your favor.

Since each spin is independent you have the same chance (1/37) of hitting any number and getting paid 35-1 instead of 37-1, hence the Casino's edge.

So what can you do?  Simple:  DON'T' PLAY EACH SPIN.  Don't play the Casino's game.

Play GROUP OF SPINS.  As I posted in part 1:

https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-math-to-beat-roulettebaccarat/

The VDW plays with a GROUP OF 9 spins, however it is complex and difficult to play.

Let's start with something easier to understand.

When you play with a GROUP OF SPINS a dependency can be created, they are no longer independent spins, thus you are no longer playing the Casino's game.

You might have heard the expression that the way to win is to play a game within a game.  In other words don't play the Casino's game, play your own game within the Casino's game.

What I like to explore are 3 different Group of Spins examples:

1.   Doublets fixed and it's effect.
2.   Doublets as a Game and it's effect
3.   Triplets as a  Game and it's effect




DOUBLETS FIXED AND IT'S EFFECT

Let's compare the single spin bet selection of FTL (Follow The Last) to the static Doublets  "RB".  Remember, RB is a fixed bet, it does not change.  RBRBRBRBRB.  It is non-random.

Playing Single Spin FTL you will have:

RRRRRRRRRR Long Win Streak on Red (you win 10 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Long Win Streak on Black (you win 10 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)

Playing Doublets fixed "RB"

RRRRRRRRRR Break Even Streak on Red (you win 0 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Break Even Streak on Black (you win 0 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Win Steak on chops (you win 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on chops (you lose 10 units)

Do you see the difference?  FTL has 4 Long Streaks and Group of 2 Spins RB has only 2 Long Streaks and 2 break even streaks, hence the fluctuations (swings in your bankroll) will be less and you are more likely to get a more Stable Bet Result.
Playing a fixed Doublet does not change the odds but it does change the fluctuation in your results. This is all I wanted to show you, ie, playing with a Group of Spins has an effect.  This is simply the first step to understanding my Group of Spins theory.

DOUBLETS AS A GAME AND IT'S EFFECT

Now let's take the Fixed Doublets and make it a Game (bet selection).

The Game will be to bet that the second spin in the Doublet will match the first spin. This is similar to FTL but it only applies every second spin, not every spin.  It too, is non-random.

So if first spin is a B we bet for another B to get BB, end of Game after 2 Spins.  If first spin is a R we bet R to get RR after 2 spins, end of Game.

If we got a BR or RB then we lose the Game.

I thought getting a BB or RR would be the same as getting an RB or BR.

I was wrong.

It takes an average of 4 Spins to get RB or BR while it takes an average of 6 spins to get either BB or RR.

The reason it takes longer is because there are no "overlapping" RR or BB.  For example if you have "RRRR".  If you are playing the Casino's game (every spin) you would have 3 Sets of RR (1&2 Spins, 2&3rd spins and 3rd&4th spins).

Playing our Game of Doublets you would only have 2 sets of RR (1st&2nd spin and 3rd & 4th spins). Remember the Game ends after the 2nd spin and a new Game begins on 3rd Spin.

Check out this YouTube for a more detailed explanation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDw2Pu0-H4g

Now can you see how a Group of Spins can affect the outcome?  One would assume that RB and BR would have the same number of spins to complete as BB and RR but it is not so. This is another tool that may be used in your quest to beat roulette/baccarat.

TRIPLETS AS A GAME AND IT'S EFFECT

Here are the 8 possibilities for Triplets

RRR
BBB
RRB
RBR
RBB
BBR
BRB
BRR

The non-random Game will be as follows:

If the first spin is a "R", then we bet that the second spin in the Triplet will also be a "R". If the 2nd spin is an "R", we will bet the third spin to be a "R".

This Game eliminates 2 of the 8 Triplets, ie. BBB does not have an R and BBR has a R in the 3rd spin but that does not count as the Game ends on the 3rd spin.  This is the key, the Game ends after 3 spins.  This is your Game, you control what you want to do.

So we only have 6 Triplets to play with.  Remember we are only looking for an R to follow an R.
         Result    Fraction
BRB      B       0
RBB      B       0
BRR      R       1
RBR      B        0
RRB      RB       .5
RRR      RR       1
         Totals 2.5/6
   
One would expect a 50/50 (3/6) outcome but because we are playing our own Game (Group of 3 Spins) we can create a Bias or would we call this an EDGE?

Check out this visual explanation on You Tube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPZFQ6i759g

For those more mathematically inclined check out the attached PDF.

I hope I have been able to show you that a Group of 2 Spins (Doublets Fixed) did not change the odds but did change the fluctuation in results AND the same Group of 2 spins when played as a Game can have unequal outcomes AND finally that a Game (Triplets), a Group of 3 spins can show a bias or an Edge.

I trust this will give you a little more insight into how to use math and statistics to your benefit.

Cheers

Nick

Hi Bally, thanks for your input.

I too like the double streams as it gives you twice as many bets. 

Nick

Hi Mike,

You are right, the variance caused by random does not change no matter what, but I was referring to the fluctuation (variance) of your results.

Is there any difference between a bet selection based on a single independent spin or one based on a Group of Spins?  If so, what are the differences? Can they be exploited to our advantage, maybe even gain the "EDGE" that Mike and Xander often referred to.  I intend to explore this in more detail in a new thread "Use Math to Beat Roulette/Baccarat-Part 2".

But for now, let's see if we can give Beat The Wheel something to think about in his search to find something more stable. 

Let's compare the single spin bet selection of FTL (Follow The Last) to the Group of 2 spins "RB".  Remember, RB is a fixed bet, it does not change.  It does not rely on random for its bet selection.

Playing Single Spin FTL you will have:

RRRRRRRRRR Long Win Streak on Red (you win 10 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Long Win Streak on Black (you win 10 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)

Playing Group of 2 Spins RB

RRRRRRRRRR Break Even Streak on Red (you win 0 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Break Even Streak on Black (you win 0 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Win Steak on chops (you win 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on chops (you lose 10 units)

Do you see the difference?  FTL has 4 Long Streaks and Group of 2 Spins RB has only 2 Long Streaks and 2 break even streaks, hence the fluctuations (swings in your bankroll) will be less and you are more likely to get a more Stable Bet Result.

This is not a system, nor strategy and there may be other bet selections that do the same but this is a difference that might indicate there is something more to this Group of Spins theory or perhaps Nick is full of it again.  Time will tell.

Hello Beat The Wheel . . . .

In my opinion, you cannot get a "Stable Bet" by playing the Casino's Game of Independent Spins.  Each spin has same chance of 1/37 of a number hitting, 50% for Red/Black (without Zero), etc.

By playing FTL, OTL, DBL etc you are playing the Casino's Game.  You are only hoping that random will  follow FTL or OTL etc.  You have no control.

Take control.  Don't chase random, let random chase you.

Don't think in terms of individual spins, think Group of Spins. The VDW is a Group of 9 Spins.

Here's an example of a Group of 2 Spins:

RB

That's it. RBRBRBRBRB etc.  It is a fixed bet.  You bet Red the first spin, Black the second spin, Red the third spin, Black the fourth spin, etc.

You will roughly win 50% of the Red Streaks, 50% of the Black Streaks, you will win RB streaks and lose BR streaks.  No hoping, no guessing.  No matter the variance, the results should be the same.  Is this a more Stable Bet?

Thanks Alrelax,

I am currently working on Part 2 of using Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat but have been recently sidelined by cataract surgery.  Hopefully I will be able to post soon.

Cheers

Nick