29th Nov 2013 - +29$
1:35 Farrier to win at 2.56 - +15.6
12:05 Lay Moonlight dash in the place market at 1.45 - -4.5
12:10 Lay Burns night  in the place market at 1.66 - +10
12:20 Lay Ericht at 2.22 - +10
12:30 Calipto to place at 1.66 - +6.6
12:35 Lay Russian rock at 3.75 - -27.5
12:50 - Back Mijhaar to win at 3.3 - +23
13:00 - Ballywatt to place at 2.58 - +15.8
13:05 - Lay Bravo youmzain at 3 - +10
13:10 - Back Agricultural and Muwalla at 5 and 7.6 - -20
13:20 - Lay Highbury high at 2.74 - +10
13:30 - too difficult to call anyone.
13:45 - Biggar, Bellgrove and Mandarin sunset at 3.1, 3.4 and 3.85 - +8.5
13:55 - Lay off the ground at 3.85 - -28.5

29th Nov 2013
12:50 - Back Mijhaar to win at 3.3
13:00 - Ballywatt to place at 2.58
13:05 - Lay Bravo youmzain at 3
13:10 - Back Agricultural and Muwalla at 5 and 7.6
13:20 - Lay Highbury high at 2.74
13:30 - too difficult to call anyone.
13:45 - Biggar, Bellgrove and Mandarin sunset at 3.1, 3.4 and 3.85
13:55 - Lay off the ground at 3.85

29th Nov 2013
11:35 Farrier to win at 2.56
12:05 Lay Moonlight dash in the place market at 1.45
12:10 Lay Burns night  in the place market at 1.66
12:20 Lay Ericht at 2.22
12:30 Calipto to place at 1.66
12:35 Lay Russian rock at 3.75

We saw how to play dominants, we saw how to twist the turns and play non-dominant. But there is a huge hole in the whole philosophy. If you have tried your hands at this then you would have noticed immediately. While the game I outlined can be played as it is as I have described with minimal variance, if you ask me whether it holds a flat bet advantage, I will have to say no. This whole dominance and non-dominance can be played very effectively using the principle of outside D'alembert that Sam has described using while playing the excel bot. Basically play for 10 or -10 and then use the dalembert on the sessions. At least so far it is giving me good results.

But what was the hole I was talking about. You would have noticed that we have described dominances and non-dominances and how we would adopt our play to take advantage of these two situations. But these are only two of the possible three state. The third state is a balanced state where there is no clear dominance on one side of the EC. This state is the killer state for this play. As neither dominance nor non-dominance is dominating we will have the table alternate between dominant and non-dominant sides. Even if we switch we will not be able to get to the bottom of this phenomenon when that happens. When playing flat betting, this balanced state will wipe off all the advantages that we have gained.

So the lesson is, it is important to understand the dominance concets, it is a key towards achieving an edge in your play but has to be used in conjunction with other techniques which can potentially lead to stronger predictions. What are those techniques?

I call them Pockets. I call them waves. We all know that waves do happen. If you draw a graph following dominant side(or the other way round) you will note that you will get a sine wave, may not a perfectly symmetrical one, but one which oscillates up and down. Now is there a way to control the upper and lower limits of this wave leading to variances which we can understand. Is there an optimal variation? How to enter the wave at the right time and exit at the right time? Big questions, but we will try getting to the bottom of it, one by one.

In the meantime, enjoy playing the dominance and non-dominance. I have botted the play i have described as per Sam's way of playing dalembert and so far doing good both in BV and smartlive.

Quote from: Turner on November 27, 2013, 11:29:35 PM
The best people are on the case now and have been for 100 years. No HG

Turner,

Perhaps you missed the HG from a the God of Roulette.

Quote from: Albalaha on June 08, 2013, 03:13:44 AM
A wise system (let's not talk about my HG) has to have a check over bet size and there has to be a reasonable stop loss which one can afford to lose in a bad day.

You are allowed some misses as blues are raining.

As indicated earlier, following is the first few spins until we reach +10units from today's table at Wiesbaden.

Table 3
[csv=,]
,RB,Result RB,Comments,EO,Result EO,Switch,Bankroll
18,R,,,E,,,
19,R,,,O,,,
0,0,,,0,,,
23,R,,,O,,,
15,B,,,O,,,
24,B,,,E,,,
24,B,,,E,,,
22,B,,,E,,,
32,R,-1,,E,1,,0
15,B,1,,O,-1,,0
16,R,-1,,E,1,,0
10,B,1,,E,1,,2
36,R,-1,,E,1,,2
13,B,1,,O,-1,,2
27,R,-1,,O,-1,,0
14,R,1,,E,1,,2
25,R,1,,O,-1,,2
25,R,1,,O,-1,,2
35,B,-1,,E,-1,Switch,0
30,R,1,,E,1,,2
20,B,-1,,E,1,,2
23,R,1,,O,1,,4
35,B,-1,,E,-1,,2
5,R,1,,O,1,,4
0,0,-1,,0,-1,,2
3,R,1,,O,1,,4
16,R,1,,E,-1,,4
16,R,1,,E,-1,,4
25,R,1,,O,1,,6
35,B,-1,,E,1,,6
13,B,-1,,O,1,,6
24,B,-1,Switch,E,1,,6
0,0,-1,,0,-1,,4
21,R,-1,,O,1,,4
33,B,1,,O,1,,6
24,B,-1,,E,1,,6
14,R,1,,E,1,,8
18,R,1,,E,-1,,8
13,B,-1,,O,1,,8
22,B,-1,,E,-1,,6
20,B,-1,Switch,E,-1,,4
2,B,1,,E,-1,Switch,4
13,B,1,,O,-1,,4
31,B,1,,O,-1,,4
36,R,-1,,E,1,,4
32,R,-1,,E,1,,4
22,B,1,,E,1,,6
2,B,1,,E,1,,8
2,B,1,,E,1,,10
[/csv]

Never thought about it MBB. Thanks. Very well written in a simple manner that is easier to understand and track through.

25th Nov 2013
17:30 Wolv - Montjess to place at 2.12

What am going to describe may not work, but only time will tell. If the table is turning, why not play the turn. So far we have been playing dominance and we see that dominance is not working, so why not play against the dominance. Because that's the dominance. The non-dominant(is it a word?) is coming over and creating dominance. Confusing? Let us see an example of 20 spins.

R B B B B R B B R R R B B R R R R R B B

Applying the rule of dominances we saw earlier,
First 5 spins, R B B B B – B is first to reach 4, dominating, so we play for B.
6th spin , B B B B R – Loss, black prevails, play B
7th, B B B R B – Win, continue black
8th, B B R B B – Win, continue black
9th, B B R B B R - Loss, black prevails, play B
10th, B B R B B R R - Loss, black prevails, play B
11th , R B B R R R – Loss, red is dominant. Play R.

But this is where we decided to exit. Why? Because dominance based on our guiding principle is not dominant anymore. Now what I am telling is, instead of playing for dominance, play against because that is dominant now. I term it a SWITCH. I have some views and rules on when to do this switch in line with my dominance rules. But at the moment, let us not increase the complexity. Let us stick to the exit point definition and consider switching when the exit point is reached.

11th, R B B R R R – Loss, red is dominant. Play B as we have now switched to non-dominant side.
12th, R B B R R R B – win, red is dominant. Play B
13th, B B R R R B B – win, black is dominant. Play R
14th, R R R B B R – win, red is dominant. Play B
15th, R R B B R R – loss, red is dominant. Play B
16th, R B B R R R – loss, red is dominant. Play B
17th, R R R R – loss, red is dominant.

Now we face 3 losses in a row again. So its time to Switch. We now bet dominant side as that is dominating now, based on our rules. So we play Red now
18th, R R R R – win, red is dominant. Play R
19th, R R R R B – loss, red is dominant. Play R
20th, R R R R B B – loss.

So I hope you get the idea now. The above set of spins ended in -3 units. Fire any questions and we will head into today's wiesbaden spins playing RB and OE.

Another short break. Now if you have tried this phenomenon, then you would have noticed that it is a slow killer. Yes SLOW KILLER, killing you slowly and steadily as a flat bet should. Now we need to build up on this starting point of dominances to see how we can create an edge? Is it even possible? I wouldn't claim it is, and would play down this way of taking on the wheel. I would leave that to your own experience and see whether you are receiving some happiness by playing this way. After all, most of the people I believe are here for "pure da fun" rather than making some money. Cough. Cough.

Dominance of dominances – Let me introduce you to the concept of dominance of dominances. I don't want to confuse anyone, so I will try explaining in very simple terms. But the concept in itself is a little bit complex and it was daunting for me to get to the bottom of it. Now that I understand it, I am able to practice it better.

To put in simple terms, I see the marquee full of red and start playing red, but that might be the turning point for blacks to appear. We tried avoiding this scenario by putting in a safety break at 3 losses in a row. This is in line with the principles not to fight random, but going by its strides. But what do we do after getting out. Do we pack bags go home? Do we take a short break and join another table? That's just dodging the play. That's just hit and run. I can understand stop-losses and target limits, but if we leave after getting out because of 3 losses in a row, then it is not a workable strategy. We will be sitting idle more than we play.

Quote from: esoito on November 25, 2013, 07:18:03 AM
And both the odds and edges are quite different, too.

Apples and pears are both fruit from trees, but look and taste quite different.

They do, but you still  hold them with the hand and eat it through mouth. I am purely coming from a perspective of a player who doesn't understand the nitigrities of the game. But the questions raised might be relevant even to an experienced player.

Let us say as this novice player I play only Red and Black in roulette. I can't predict what's the next spin as it is independent of what happened earlier. There is no mechanism to predict what's going to happen next.

Blackjack, you can count cards. Baccarat, can you? So it finally boils down to BP in bac and RB in roulette.

Sure there are elements which are not comparable, but it is not entirely a black or white answer isn't it?

Am glad you asked that question Max. It helps bumping the ideas to get a different perspective. See below the race card for that race.

[attachimg=1]

Now the market favourite that day was Yul finegold at 3.21. If I go a little further on Yul's victories, i figured that he has primarily raced in turf, but Wolverhampton is an entirely different story with polytrack. Also, most of Yuls victories came when the going was good and the going was standard on this day. So I thought this is a market leader to lay.

Now again taking the above factor and recent form into consideration, two horse stood out for me. Knockgraffon lad and Magica. Both were dropping classses as well. However, the racing was in Wolverhampton and the distance was 1m 4f.  Over this distance there was definitely a draw bias towards the inside. So I ranked Knockgraffon lad first followed by Magica. Race day comes and Magika was a non-runner. Decision made easier.

Now came the question of betting. Eventhough Yul was leading at 3.21 it was a bit far fetched to lay him and backing Knockgraffon at 18 or in the place at 3.9 sounded more attractive. So i decided to bet on place for Knock at 3.9.

Now I was on the profits that day. Profits, well in the positive territory. Saw the gap from the leader to the next one. The second leader was Singzak and he was trading at 8.x. So the maximum i could bet was on 8 horses on a course of 10 horses. I needed to find one more which i am confident of laying, but within the market leaders. The reason is, the more non-favourites i have the better the profit. Question was who. Again went back to the form card. I had to chose between Mick Duggan, Singzak, Sir boss and rebel force. Let Rebel force out by pure form. Now I had 8 racing horses that i could bet on with the lowest odd being 8.2.

From here it was down to luck. Yul finegold got caught on the inner side. Venutius led for first half and Singzak (justified the second favourite) went into the lead in the second half. If not for the late burst from Knock, singzak would have won. Glad it worked my way.

Hope it answered your question Esoito.

Yes Esoito. Am.  But my bet sizes vary in real world to accommodate my confidence leavers and dome short progressions. But this thread is about being flat.  So far after 4-5 days, it's still on the up.  Only time will tell.

Hearty congratulations Chris. 

Not a good day

19 Nov2013 - +23.3$

12:10 Like Clockwork to place at 2.96 - -10
12:40 Uncle Dermott to place at 2.7 - -10
12:40 Lay Chrissycross in place market at 3.05 - -20
13:10 Big storm coming to place at 1.83 - +8.3
13:40 Lay Maywhi at 2.52 - +10
14:10 Lay Stoutcortez at 1.83 - +10
14:40 Clear focus to place and win at 2.52 and 7 - -20
15:10 Lay Amenable at 4.8 - +10
15:40 Back leesanthem to place at  5.5 - +45