Quote from: TwoCatSam on October 22, 2013, 12:25:20 PM
I believe in random outcomes clustering together in pockets of patterns and numbers.
Pockets
Absolutely they do!!
All we ever need to know is two things:  When to get in and when to get out. 
I'm looking forward to your study!
Thanks for your time and effort.
TwoCat

Am starting with the quotes from my favourite poster in this forum. Sam is absolutely right. All we ever need to know is when to get in and when to get out, and people have spent centuries finding an answer. I have read somewhere that people develop an intuition with experience and many people in this forum might have that intuition. But anything that is subjective cannot be proven and cannot be taught. It is for a reason my grandma told me that I will learn with experience and experience comes with age. I am going to attempt at how to curb human tendencies and intuition through defined mechanical set of rules.

As I told, throughout the study, I will be referring to various systems and methods and am not defining how this is going to shape as I don't know about it myself. I am just going to go with the flow. It brings another important point to the forefront that the wheel will reward you when you dance to its tune. Don't try fighting the random as its an uncontrollable monster, but instead worship it and play to its tunes.


I had a number of options to start with for my position of betting. My favourite is betting on 1 number or straights. But going with the ground rules set, I am going to steer away from it for sometime now as I found it hard to get the straight-up game when I started playing roulette. I still remember the day when me and my girl friend entered a casino in Monaco on our holiday and looked at real roulette table for the first time. I asked her where to put the money on and the answer came loud and clear - "Let it be on RED". I was expecting a bet on my date of birth, poor me.


As much as many experienced gamblers denounce it I find playing 18 numbers or ECs as we commonly call it, to be the easiest position to start for a noob like me. It gives me peace of mind because

   
• You don't have to wait longer for a win (ofcourse who can forget 22 reds in a row). It will give my girl friend absolute heart-ache if she is placing money on the wheel for 20-30 spins before taking money from it.
• It is easier to see how much more times you need to win to be in the positive. You place one unit, you win one or lose one. Simple calculations, simple betting sequences.
• You have the flexibility to place one bet which consolidates 18 numbers, just sitting and sipping your glenfiddich. You don't have to struggle and stretch on the table to place your bets and scramble before you hear "No more bets"
• Simple progressions, which are easier to understand and easier to relate to.

But as I said, straight-up is my favourite bet, and we will get into it once we travel a significant distance in this journey. For simplicity sake, lets start with Red and black, the ones which are visually distinct, the ones which are shown in the marquee, the ones which are easy to play for a dumbo like me.

Back with some time @hand to chose picks
CSKA vs Mancity
'This is all about six points because we play CSKA twice back-to-back and we must win there.'
Will Pellagrini put the criticism aside on one side and start both Sergio and negrado? Turner, you are from the blue part, what do you think? Considering the current form, I think, it would be a safe bet to consider CSKA on the backfoot. But no one knows what the funny stadium holds for you . My bet is 5 units on Mancity -1, at 2.24.

Bayer vs Shaktar
Can the trio of Luiz Adriano, Alex Teixeira and Douglas Costa break the Bayarena fortress. They definitely have the potential. Bayer has started strong, but a look deeper will reveal, they did some escape acts. But how long. To me Shaktar+0.5 at 2.05 looks a good value bet.

Real vs Juventus
It is funny that ManU are getting a shorter odds that Real. Ofcourse it is not a nice experience to lead 2-0 with 20 mins remaining and get 4 goals punched into your net. It takes one to be a GOD, to get to terms so quickly with such a disaster. It is going to be a cake in the park and i go with real.

And lastly Pistolero is playing tommorrow. With odds over 4.0, I would definitely place a bet on him with the current form he is in.

In summary,
5 on Mancity -1.0 @ 2.24
5 on Shaktar +0.5 @ 2.05
5 on Real win @1.6
5 on Kostas Mitroglou scoring a goal @4.3

Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on October 22, 2013, 11:14:15 PM
Perhaps you could you start by defining "flat bet"?

Mr. Bing bell, Very valid question. I did define my opinion on what is a flat bet in one of the posts earlier in a  different thread.

Quote from: Pockets on October 14, 2013, 10:24:42 AM
There are four forms of flat betting. One is flat betting in the true sense of flat betting, second one is flat betting in terms of units, but moving the betting positions, like parachute bets. Third is where you bet a progression 1,2,3,4, but on the progression loss, you move back to 1,2,3,4 again. Similar to your 1,2,2 method. You are flat betting 5 units. Fourth form is flat betting a session. Where you go to a session with a fixed pot of money or fixed Bank roll and you try to make profit or loss. The fixed bank roll/session Bank roll forms your flat bet. I have seen people practice all 4 forms and I have seen people both win and lose out of it.

However, to make things clear, the flat betting I will be using in this thread is 1,1,1,1,......... The flat betting in the common vocabulary.

All, Thanks for the encouraging words. It makes a writer enjoy his writings, when he knows there are others who are reading it. I am happy to be amongst a set of like-minded individuals.

Quote from: Buffster on October 22, 2013, 01:39:01 PM
Just trying to get the jist of what is to come.

Now, Buffster, just to clear the air, what I intend to do is publish methods that I have researched over a period of time.
But the truth remains that am an amateur gambler and I don’t devote much of my time at the roulette as many of the people here do.
Also, am not a creative person to come up with my own roulette systems.
So honestly what I will be posting will be ideas borrowed from friends, family and people who post here and in some other forums.
At the same time, I do not want to downplay these ideas as replicas, as I have put in considerable effort and time to suit things that work for me on a regular basis to come out of any casino session in positive.

Some ground rules.
As no one has showed before, I will show (at least hoping that this will hold up how to beat the negative expectation with flat bet. Don't believe me now, because even I don't believe me now. Hold on and lets see how the mystery unravels. But I will keep it no mystery.


1. I want this to appeal to experienced and novices alike. So no complex jargons, assumptions
2. No hidden agenda on not wanting to give things on a silver plate. If I have things on a silver plate, I will happily feast you. As much I love pockets, I do like a world with equal opportunities. How one converts an opportunity should determine person's fate and not how much opportunity one gets.
3. Remaining truthful to the forums name, this thread is not about MM. it is about bet selection. So I will just use flat betting.
4. We will test at least 100 live sessions. I will post them honestly on this site.
5. This is in no means a dig at anyone. IT is an adventure and happy to take as many on board. We may agree and agree to disagree, but we are still together.
6. Strategy has to be playable. No point waiting 100 spins to play and no point the play not being able to hold people who want to play big unit sizes. For clarity, I will be using 5$ bets. You can define your own base unit. My bankroll is going to be 50 times the base unit.
7. I don't believe in stoplosses and profit targets. But I respect people with these targets. So my tests will cover both results with and without stop loss, but no profit targets.

So ladies(if there are any around here) and gentlemen, fasten your seat belts, the adventure is about to begin.

I am Pockets. Well, why is it important?

Because, I believe wealth is concentrated in pockets in this world. Energy is focussed in pockets in this world. I believe that 20% of anything packs 80% potential. I believe profits and losses in gambling occur in pockets and success lies in tapping these pockets. I believe in random outcomes clustering together in pockets of patterns and numbers. I believe in the deep pockets of casino who exploit people who voluntarily fall prey. I believe in treating gambling as something one should do with their pocket money. I believe roulette is made of pockets painted, but they carry no significance on the identity painted on them. I believe in luck striking in pockets. And finally I believe 80% of people in the world are driven by deeds that can make their pocket heavy. That's why I am POCKETS.

Quote from: Sputnik on October 13, 2013, 04:18:07 PM
The point is, there is no member of this forum who can flat betting.
If some one say they can, then they lie.

Quote from: iggiv on October 17, 2013, 12:37:24 AM
there is no winning bet. it's nonsense. it doesn't exist. Whatever is winning now will lose soon. Any stiff pattern. But that does not mean, that it's impossible to win in roulette.

Quote from: Mike on October 17, 2013, 04:34:40 AM
Of course there's no consistent winning bet. The very idea is ludicrous. This guy razor is having a bit of a giggle at your expense!

Quote from: TwoCatSam on October 17, 2013, 04:49:06 AM
What the heck is a "constant winning bet" anyway??

Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on October 20, 2013, 06:09:15 AM
Movements on the carpet?
What are the movements?
How would they help?

Quote from: malcop on October 20, 2013, 09:05:30 AM
The first rule of Fight Club is: You do not talk about Fight Club.
The second rule of Fight Club is: You do not talk about Fight Club.

Quote from: Mike on October 21, 2013, 05:17:24 PM
So my simulations showed exactly what the theory predicted.

Quote from: Sputnik on October 19, 2013, 09:01:54 AM
What is respect about, well i can not respect some one who claim they can flat betting.
Because they can not show how it is done, they just end up to claim they can out guess negative expectation, so boring, so why waste your time read what they reply when you know is nonsense ...

Some very interesting discussions happened while I was away on a short holiday. I was following them on my phone. I see there is some element of truth in every statement here even though they contradict. I will not get into phenomena of true-lies, but I am one who believe anything that man invented is flawed and can be beaten. And roulette was invented by mankind.

Yes, it is purely my belief and my opinion. It is my belief that you can overcome the negative progression. It is my belief that this can be achieved through flat betting. It is my belief that it is not a fight club and you can talk about it. It is my belief that you can do it mechanically. Interested? Read on then. Is this thread open for feedback? If not, I should not be posting here. Will take this personal? Yes, may be, but I do have a life beyond this. So shoot anything and everything you would like to say.

Bally, Sputnik,

You both are right. I will tell try explaining why.

First, Sputnik, you are absolutely right in saying that betting just even chance is no worse/better than betting multiple locations. Consider it this way, there are four people sitting on the table. Each betting on one of the betting positions called out in the 4 unit bet. For the CEH method to end in profit, the collective sum of all these 4 people has to end in profit. And common sense says that it doesn't. There will be days when they will end in profit and there will be days when they will end in loss. There will be days when all four people will win and there will be days when all four people will lose. It just doesn't make any sense and you are spot on Sputnik.

Now coming to your question on flat betting Sputnik, I don't want to comment much on it as I know people who win absolutely flat betting. There are four forms of flat betting. One is flat betting in the true sense of flat betting, second one is flat betting in terms of units, but moving the betting positions, like parachute bets. Third is where you bet a progression 1,2,3,4, but on the progression loss, you move back to 1,2,3,4 again. Similar to your 1,2,2 method. You are flat betting 5 units. Fourth form is flat betting a session. Where you go to a session with a fixed pot of money or fixed Bank roll and you try to make profit or loss. The fixed bank roll/session Bank roll forms your flat bet. I have seen people practice all 4 forms and I have seen people both win and lose out of it.

Now Bally, eventhough Sputnik is right, your method is winning because, you are controlling your progression and balancing it using the wins from others. The biggest battle you have to do in roulette is the battle of your own mind. It is very hard to win that battle. You have tried transferring that battle to the wheel, by betting on multiple locations and the win or loss on one location controlling the totall number of units on the other location. That way, you are always limiting your progression, using a mixed bag of results.

You will get the same result even if you just chose one position and try catching a run with a positive progression, but controlling the positive progression with a rule of resetting after lets say 3 wins in a row and not when you are in a new bankroll high. This way you will control your positive progression and keep getting runs which you can capitalize on.

Just a short message to Albalaha and any others who were following high probability picks, it was a good topic, Sumit was providing great picks, it's a pity he decided not to continue. There was lot of work that went in that topic and to me the decision to lock and not continue didn't sound good.

A personal message for Sumit, you might want to take it or leave it. Buddy, live for yourselves. Like you, yourselves and only yourselves. if posting something is giving you satisfaction, why notice those distant barks. Just rephrasing your signature, only a genius knows how to turn noise to music. Decide yourselves whether you are a genius or a common man.

The league story - 3rd Oct 2013
English teams did well. My selections did well. What more can I ask? I dint expect St.Gallen to lose penalty. Neither did I expect Rubin Kazan to run a riot. The absolute shocker was Lazio, they woke up too late. And betis played it too safe.

How did we do?
10 on Spurs win @1.54 +5
1 on Defoe to break the deadlock 4.75 +3.75
5 on a Frankfurt win @2 +5
5 on 3 or more goals at Apoel @2.12 +5
5 on half time deadlock for kuban @2.24 +6
5 on under 2.5goals @1.8 +4
5 on both teams to score at liberty stadium @1.8 -5
1 on St.Gallen to win @8 -1
5 on Lazio win @2.72 -5
5 on both Rubin and Zulte to be on goals at 2 -5
1 on Jonas to score @6 -1
5 on halftime betis lead @2.52 -5

Day 4 was in positive 6.75 units. Overall profit for 4 days a little under 16 (15.75)

Some more on today's games.
Kuban vs Valencia – One has recovered from a set of losses, one is going through that phase. Jonas is finally finding some form for after coming back from the suspension and trying to bridge the gap Soladado has created. There seems to be some link between his form and Valencia's form. They might be rubbing the wounds from the Swan bites and raring to get some points in the pocket. For all you know Nikola might be sitting in the crowd and praying Valencia to beat up the Cossacks. But the Cossacks on their side have reached this situation in a commanding manner with play-off victory over Feyenoord. A tough game on the card, but its going to be low scoring. I am expecting a half time deadlock with Jonas to score first and the game leading to a deadlock at the end.

Rijeka vs Real Betis – Betis did really surprise me last month. To be honest I didn't expect them to overcome Villareal or for that matter Valencia. But they are more of a fish happy in the water. Away games are not their comfort zone. Rijeka on the other hand is a mixed bag. You don't know what is going to come out of the bag. My bet is on Betis to lead at halftime and Jorge to score first. If you ask me one month from now when I would have doubled my bankroll, I would have also gone for a deadlock at FT.

In summary,
5 on half time deadlock @2.24
5 on under 2.5goals @1.8
1 on Jonas to score @6
5 on halftime betis lead @2.52
1 on Jorge to score first – I can't find anybody selling odds for this.

A look back at 2nd Oct roundup
What a day. Zlatan came back. Leverkussen bounced back. Pep showed what is perfection. Moskow came to win from behind. Moyes retained some respite.

Champions league +4.1
5 on Man U win @3 lost
2 on Van persie strick @2.25 lost
10 on Both Juve and Gala to score @1.98 gave 9
2 on Juve to comeback from behind @6.5 lost - Man, they did come back didn't they
5  on halftime for Leverkusen @2.42 - gave 7
5 on under 4.5cards @1.72 gave 3.5
5 on Over 3.5 goals in Madrid @1.63 gave 3
10 on both PSG and Benfica to score @1.86 lost
5 on city win @3.4 lost
5 on over 2.5 goals at city @1.8 gave 4

Day 3, managed to end positive +4.1. Overall profit for 3 days 9 units.

Its always good to know someone is enjoying what you are writing. Thanks Turner and yes am a gooner, born and brought up. So where you at yesterday's match. I later thought I should have watched the Shaktar match. Too many mistakes.

Europa league - 3rd Oct 2013
Anzhi vs Spurs – With Eto'o back in London with the blues, the Russians are really struggling to find where the goal post is. Spurs are the bookie favourites with modest returns and they have done so with an impressive display at front and back. Expect Defoe to return and score a goal or two and break the deadlock. 10 on a spurs win and 1 on Defoe to break the deadlock.

Swansea vs St.Gallen – Oh boy! Swans are on song aren't they. But St.Gallen is coming from a similar construct as well. They have not lost for sometime now and sitting pretty at the top of the league. Both have won their last European match. I think it will be safe to say both will be on the goals and odds of 1.8 deserves a fiver. With a return of 8, it will be safer to put one unit on St. Gallen win to see if they could replicate what Basel showed at Chelsea.

Trabzonspor vs. Lazio  - Another interesting game with the Romans in the Turkish territory. If Lazio can continue their current form they will be no match for the Turksih. With the odds placed 2.72, they are a giveaway. Such is my confidence that I will put a tenner on them, but am holding back after a day to forget.

Apoel vs Frankfurt – Again another game which is giving a juicy odd in favour of the favourite. At even money returns why wouldn't you put your money on Frankfurt. They are indeed holding well. I expect a final scoreline of 1-2 or better and hence going with 3 or more goals @2.12

Rubin kazan vs zulte-waregem – Very difficult to predict the match odds, eventhough it is tilted heavily in favour of Rubin considering they are playing home. Kurban's reign for more than a decade and Francky's return to the Belgian side are two different but yet fairy tales. Going by the history, I expect a Rubin win, and I expect both teams to be on the goals, but my money is on over 2.5 goals at even money returns.

In summary,
10 on Spurs win @1.54
1 on Defoe to break the deadlock 4.75
5 on both teams to score at liberty stadium @1.8
1 on St.Gallen to win @8
5 on Lazio win @2.72
5 on a Frankfurt win @2
5 on 3 or more goals at Apoel @2.12
5 on both Rubin and Zulte to be on goals at 2

There are lot more games and will do some more study this evening to see whether to spend more or not depending on how the Wednesday shapes up in Champions league.

Champions league Wednesday- 2nd oct 2013
Shaktar vs Man U – Two teams struggling in the league. But both won their opening encounters convincingly. Shaktar has never lost to an English side at home. But, I definitely think Man U has an edge. They should be capable of playing their best players without injury concerns. I don't think David will gamble on this one. A new manager at MU has always struggled in the premier league but not outside of it. Expect a Man U win and going against the bookies will give a sweet 3. Also, the returning Van persie might have a point to prove and will definitely take a 2.25 on him.

Juventus vs Galatasaray – Mancini face tevez outside of the Manchester blues, in fact they might if Carlos is not sitting out on the injury list. With a new manager and unsettled atmosphere, it should be  a walk in the park for Juve. Odds pretty much dictate this. However, Juve's problems in the back are well documented. Considering this I would take near even odds for both teams to score with loads of confidence. Another interesting thing to note is how many times have you seen the Bianconeri play the Houdini act in the recent matches. Almost everyone except the one at Torino. So with odds at 6.5, it might be worth taking a taste of that.

Leverkusen vs Sociedad – Sociedad is struggling. To top it Xabi is likely to be out. They are going to end the bottom of the group. Given that Arraste's men have never recorded a win in German soil, and have conceded in the first half all the time with Elche finding the net within 2' last week, I expect Sociedad to win both the halves. A half time win for Leverkusen at 2.42 looks very juicy, even a full time win @1.75 looks very attractive for a conservative bettor. Another interesting aspect is both are fair play teams in general, and I expect under 4 cards. Odds @1.72 for under 4.5 cards look very generous.

Real Madrid vs Copenhagen – What can I say? Or do I need to say anything. Playing the 150th game might be the only joy for the visitors. Expect more goals. Over 3.5 priced a little over 1.6, I think I will take it.

PSG vs Benfica – Benfica are capable of surprising. I am predicting this to be a little topsy-turvy game. Neither side have failed to score in the recent past. Both teams to score at 1.8 seems a solid bet with my 10% on it.

Man C vs Bayern muenchen – Any Manchester blue fans here? Tell me when did you lose last at home? Well, I can hear a Bayern fan shouting When did we lose? The city fan answers the last time you met us at home. Very interesting conversation right. Bayern are the bookies favourites. But I am going to go for a city bet. Have you heard of EV? City gives me a great EV. At 3.4 and at home, I expect City to repay for my trust. Also, over 2.5 goals @ 1.8 seems to be good value.

In summary,
5 on Man U win @3
2 on Van persie strick @2.25
10 on Both Juve and Gala to score @1.98
2 on Juve to comeback from behind @6.5
5  on halftime for Leverkusen @2.42
5 on under 4.5cards @1.72
5 on Over 3.5 goals in Madrid @1.63
10 on both PSG and Benfica to score @1.86
5 on city win @3.4
5 on over 2.5 goals at city @1.8

I have reserved my couch for the city and Bayern game. Hope its as entertaining as today's gunners game.