A look back – 1st Oct 2013
Definitely not my day. Dent on the journey towards doubling the bankroll. Flurry of late goals, own goals a day to forget. But I must say I just loved the gunners game. The first half was just mesmerizing and the nemo goal topped it all.

Championship +8.5
1 on Nugent scoring @ 2.1 gave 1.1
1 on Leicester winning 1-0 @ 10 lost
1 on Leicester winning 2-0 @ 11.5 lost
5 on Leicester winning @ 1.88 gave 4.5
5 on Forest winning @ 2.1 lost
5 on Leeds winning @ 2 gave 5
10 on Reading winning @ 2.04 lost
5 on over 2.5 goals in Birmingham vs Millwall @ 2.14 gave 5.5
1 each on Sam and Danny @6 and 7.5 gave 5.5
2 as a return on laying first goal within 10 mins @ 5.6 for the claret game gave 2
2 as a return on laying first goal within 20 mins @ 6.4 for the clarets game gave 2

Champions league -32.5
10% on both teams to score at Switzerland @1.62 lost
5% on Under 2.5 goals in Romania @1.91 lost
5% on a barca win @1.42 gave 2
5% on a Napoli win @4.3 lost
1% on Higauin to score lost
1% on Ramsey to score lost
5% on over 2.5 goals in Germany @ 1.54 gave 2.7
5% on a draw in Portugal @3.25 lost
10% on Over 2.5 goals @ arena boulevard @1.92 lost

Day 2, 24 in the negative. Overall profit for 2 days a little under 5 on 100 unit bankroll.

The champions league roundup

Basel vs Schalke – Match of the equals. But you can't expect a draw from such a juicy venture. I believe Schalke has a slight advantage considering the line-up that is going to be available and considering that they have mastered away games. So who is going to top the group table at the end of the day. An inconsistent German side or the super league toppers. Its not something that I can say for sure. But, but, how weak can a top side's defence get. Look at Schalke, opponents are having a ball and if Basel can score against Chelsea away, they can definitely score against Schalke home. And call it Voodoo, Schalke has never failed to score in an away game in the recent past. Both teams to score is where my bets are and am very confident to put 10% on it.

Chelsea vs Bucuresti – Defence prevails. After what Schalke did last time around, one would expect a top side like the blues to repeat it. But statistics say otherwise. Look at the rate and manner in which Steaua has beaten teams in the recent past. They are on a roll. But they have lost only one of the last 8 encounters at home against English clubs and they downed the blues 1-0 last year. With the little dynamo from Sampdoria consistently challenging the opposition defenders, another surprise might be on the cards. Chelsea might still hold an edge amidst all these. I expect a draw here, but my bet is on under 2.5 goals with 5% on it.

Celtic vs Barcelona – Not the fighters day. Its Celtic meeting the greatness at home. And they are meeting the parade without the king. With Messi down to a thigh injury, there is some shine off the ball, but a parade is a parade with or without the king. Expect a clear barca win and put our 5% on it.

Arsenal vs Napoli – Match of the day and I will be watching this. Two sides on a roll. Two old foes. Two world class players. An absolute dream to watch. But only one will come smiling at the end. My brain says gunners but heart goes out to the Italians. I know it's a home game but this is one of the games I will listen to my heart. I might be wrong. 5% on a Napoli win. Also, watch out for a Higauin and ramsey to be on the goals with 1% on both.

Dortmund vs Marseille – Meeting the lion at its den. The yellow wall will be intimidating for the visitors. The odds speak the story. No joy in betting a Dortmund win. But don't forget, it might be two years back, but still the French coastal town came from behind to kick Dortmund out at group stages. I expect nothing short of a miracle to deny Dortmund a win. I am settling for over 2.5 goals. Those who are interested in laying, can try their hand at the Gabonese striking sensation Aubameyang not to be on the score card. Yes, it's a strange call, but I think with him being the favourite and considering Marseille knowing him well, he will be marked heavily and might give nice returns.

Porto vs Atletico Madrid – The first look demands a Madrid win hands down in the way they have been winning matches consistently. Porto has been very unconvincing eventhough they are having an unbeaten run. But when did you last see Porto losing at home? May be Madrid was not in the same form they last met Porto, but they are clearly ahead on a head to head comparison. Both would like to get to the top of the table at the end of the day. I think we are really heading for a draw, but not a boring one with some good goals on the cards. I am reluctantly putting 5% on a draw.

Ajax vs milan – The man is returning. Manchester blues will know this better. Yes am talking about Balotelli. He will be raring to go. If a 11 year history means anything, the dutch has not won against Italians in this decade. History should repeat. But Milan has a long injury list which might work against them. I think I will confidently settle in for over 2.5 goals putting 10% at good odds.

In summary,
10% on both teams to score at Switzerland @1.62
5% on Under 2.5 goals in Romania @1.91
5% on a barca win @1.42
5% on a Napoli win @4.3
1% on Higauin to score
1% on Ramsey to score
5% on over 2.5 goals in Germany @ 1.54
5% on a draw in Portugal @3.25
10% on Over 2.5 goals @ arena boulevard @1.92

Too much at stake with more than 85% of my bankroll across the champion(ship and league) games. Am going to watch the clash of the superheroes and will be in emirates today. Have a treat everyone.

The championship roundup – 1st October 2013

Yeovil vs Leicester - Clash between the top and bottom. Byron returning might strengthen the Glovers back who has already proven very strong in the defence department. For Leicester, Nugent is on a flow. Not expecting a goal flood, but I expect this to be a cakewalk for the foxes with Nugent finding the back of the net. 1% on Nugent scoring and 5% on foxes winning with 1% each on 1-0 and 2-0.

Charlton vs Nottingham - Another top vs bottom, but not in the true sense. Was the forest victory last week an aberration in their string of winless games? Might be, but what can you say when Davies is out of the injury problems that his side faced and Charlton getting into the injury cycle. It's not one of the games where I would go against the bookies. Infact the return from going with the bookies is not really bad considering that this is an away game for the tricky trees. Go forest go. 5% on a Forest win on a little higher than even money odds.

Leeds vs Bournemouth - String of 5 losses, but Leeds should be breathing some relief at home after a long journey on the road. Both the teams are really home sick. Their last head to head clash goes back to 5 years, but whites came out with a 2 goal difference on both the matches. The cherries did fight back in the last match but it did not match the heroics they showed against middlesborough. I am putting my money on Leeds to break the streak and show what they are against an inconsistent Bournemouth. 5% on the whites win at even money odds.

Barnsley vs Reading - The premier league dropouts against the potential championship dropouts. David vs Goliath isn't it. No more explanation needed. While it is doubtful to expect a goal riot like Watford, Reading win is written in stone. Good odds @2.0  will require a 10% bankroll bet to sweep some money off the market.

Birmingham vs Millwall - Millwall is on a flow in the last 3 games after a disastrous start. But Birmingham holds the dubious distinction of never losing to Millwall as far as I could recollect in my short memory space. Very tough this one. Very inconsistent this one. But one thing is for sure. The scoreboard is going to be ticking. With 30 goals in the last five games these teams have played, we should expect the goals to flow. I put my money on over 2.5 goals and it definitely deserves 5% of my bankroll @ 2.14

Doncaster vs Burnley - It's going to be close. Very close to the wire if I go by the recent form and past statistics. With Manchester loanees coming both from blue and red side playing a key role in both the sides, it will be a good game to watch. Will clarets continue surprising us or the Donny going to keep up with the momentum? I would like to go with the flow. I would like clarets to continue to surprise us. But my money is on a different line today. I don't expect either team to score in the first half. Being cautiously optimistic, I would bet on a 0-0 score until about 20 mins into the game. I am going to lay both 0-10 mins and 11-20 mins for the first goal with a view to get returns of 2% of the bank roll on each of the bet. Also with good odds on Danny Ings and Sam Vokes, I would put 1% on both expecting one to break the deadlock.

In summary,
1 on Nugent scoring @ 2.1
1 on Leicester winning 1-0 @ 10
1 on Leicester winning 2-0 @ 11.5
5 on Leicester winning @ 1.88
5 on Forest winning @ 2.1
5 on Leeds winning @ 2
10 on Reading winning @ 2.04
5 on over 2.5 goals in Birmingham vs Millwall @ 2.14
1 each on Sam and Danny @6 and 7.5
2 as a return on laying first goal within 10 mins @ 5.6 for the claret game
2 as a return on laying first goal within 20 mins @ 6.4 for the clarets game

That gives us 6 juicy games to look forward to. Going to be a very active evening.

Back to 30th Sep
Very productive day. I did think that the toons were going to go without a goal at HT and got a shocker at 70' when Coloccini survived a handball appeal. But that's the game isn't it. Apart from that there were no surprises in this game and the others with respect to my bet placement. Following is where we stand at the moment.
Toffees and toons  +11
10 on both teams to score at 1.88 returned 8
5 on everton win @1.66 gave 3
2 on no penalties at 1.3 gave 0.6
St. Mirren vs Aberdeen + 5
8 on Aberdeen cleansheet lost
5 on a draw at 3.7 returned 13.5
Granada and Bilbao + 11
10 on a half time deadlock at 2.24 gave 12.4
1 on Ibai to score lost
1 day +28.9 on a 100 bankroll.

Granada and Bilbao
Basques had two eventful Mondays. Will they be capable of repeating the success? Or will they hole out to the Granada Chinese wall?

No more than half time - How long can Granada prevail before they break. How long will the basques need before they find the back of the net. The outcome of the game is anyone's guess, but there is a little statistics bird that is ringing in my ears that its going to be a deadlock at half time. Barring the benzema goal within 15', the rest of the recent ones have come well into the game. 10% on half time draw at 2.24.

Ibai to score - Very strange choice. Expecting him not to warm the bench and come in around 50-70' mark to give some fresh legs to the bilbao caterpillar, considering the dense Granada play. Once he is in, he has not failed in the recent away games, whatever is the opposition. With him to score last at an odds of 9.5, I will definitely bet on him. Considering the returns, I am more than willing to put 1% on this bloke.

In summary,
10 on a halftime deadlock at 2.24
1 on Ibai to score last at 9.5

Pretty much closing game of the day and will be off to sleep post that.

St. Mirren and Aberdeen
One struggling with not a single win in the last 6 home games. The other sitting pretty strong in the top half extending their unbeaten run. Not really attacking sides. Pretty boring draw considering one is trying to gain lost confidence and one is going to struggle to play the same team that commandingly won last 3 games. But such boring games bring in high odds to feast upon.

A boring draw -  A boring low scoring draw is on the cards with Lennon playing his music low to get back into the equation and save those rounds in the back. Its like six wins for the bank and am looking for a streak to break. 5% of my money on the draw and with 3.7 return on the cards, it is a value for money bet.

St. Mirren not to score - With the first choice left back in the injury list, I don't expect them to go on a full attack mode. Going by the history of cleansheets Aberdeen holds in the last few games, we should expect a bit of history to repeat. With odds placed at 2.62 it is something one should grab with both hands. I am placing 8% of my bankroll there.

In summary,
8 on Aberdeen clean sheet at 2.62
5 on a draw at 3.7.


Not many opportunities to exploit here, but I will be more than happy to see how Danny Lennon bounces back. Look out for his smiling face at the end of the match.

Toffees and Toons
One is doing an unbeatable run in the premierships and one has an away record to boast in the last few games. A mouth watering clash. Where is your money on?

Both teams to score - Magpies have never failed to score in their last 5 outings except the one at city. With the most creative foursome of Ben, Sissoko, Marveaux and Cissé, they are expected to hit the net at least once. But having conceded the most headers this season and the dynamo Baines testing them with crosses, Everton is also expected to score. With both teams to score priced at 1.88, 10% of my bankroll goes there today.

Everton to win - Eventhough magpies have a better track record, considering the form Everton is in and considering that they are playing home, one would expect them to win with one goal difference. 5% of my bankroll goes there today at 1.66 odds.

Who will score - It is a tough one. Baines is going to be involved in a couple of them and I don't expect the Belgian duo forward to be on the goals 100%. I expect Naismith not to challenge Santon. On the other hand, the magpies have lots of creative energy at the top making it difficult to decide. No. Not this one.

Penalty - With Martinez and Pardew on the helms, I expect very few action within the box. With a 30% return on no penalties I will surely take that one with 2% of my bankroll.

In summary,
10 on both teams to score at  1.88
5 on Everton win at 1.66
2 on no penalties at 1.3

Save a drink for me.