Thanks Breno, much appreciated.

I did a brief test on this as the first of my tests on whether "when" has an influence. So I picked up 5 different sets of 100,000 spins with all zeroes removed. I tried running it against 5 different when selections ranging from betting every spin to betting after 5 appearances of one colour. I tried both "for" and "against" to see whether there is any influence. Conclusion, at least on this type of "when", is that it doesn't have an influence. So if some one tells me wait for "RRR" and then bet for "B" or bet for the run to continue, I have now concluded based on this set of results that it doesn't have any influence. Your feedback is most welcome.

I think there is a false appreciation that arises from the fact that your number of placed bets rapidly decreases and the effect of any deviations happen over a larger number of spins. However, if you take the number of placed bets/spins where bets are placed the effect is the same.

Following table gives the win% based on the different parameters.
[attachimg=1]

What are they? Trying to understand, but seems very difficult to get hold of a simple explanation. Can someone help?

As I wrote this, decided to take a conscious attempt to jump in after spin 1 before going to bed. It was hard! Really difficult to do that. If I am my usual self, I would have just placed one bet on spin number 5 and would have wrapped up the session. But trying to learn.

Probably I should stop boring you all posting these. I promise the next post on this will be only to gather more feedback as I am sure to get questions as I continue to play this way. And it is going to be a slow process as its about 7-10 sessions a day once as and when I feel in the right state of mind.

Late here and good night!

[attachimg=1]

@Superman, you wrote in one of the posts that you had to write-off a few 40 unit sessions. So is that your ceiling?

Quote from: BrenoGarcia on August 14, 2013, 05:36:21 PM
Betfair is the best site to make money with sports betting. The house is unlike any other, because in Betfair you bet on a structure similar to the stock market, where there are bets for or against the results.

I don't think I get it. Actually I thought you always bet for or against a decision. For example, if two players A and B are playing tennis, you either bet for A to win or against A to win. I think I am missing something from what you are trying to get at.

Quote from: BrenoGarcia on August 14, 2013, 05:36:21 PM
In the first few months, I lost a lot of money, because I was still in the process of learning, today, can have a very good balance and on average make $ 500 a week ...

Great going there. Any specific learnings from the initial  loss that you can share?

Quote from: Proofreaders2000 on August 14, 2013, 11:43:05 PM
Be careful what you say (you may get it)

Btn, today from evening, I have played 5 sessions whenever I felt right/good for the 1%. Initially I was complicating things with 10% NZ commission. Then I decided to play for 5 units which approximates to 1%. I am going to continue playing this was until I reach 550 and then I will increase my target to 5.5 per session. All are short bursts, no pressure games. I wish I can play them on my iphone (lazier side of me :-)) Still early days!!!
[attachimg=1]

All but one went like this.
[attachimg=2]

The one I was not confident on what is happening on the table went like this.
[attachimg=3]
I think I need to practice more and as Superman said not scared to place one unit on the table when things go choppy. At the moment am just going blank and that is a wasted opportunity. Hoping it will come with practice.

Quote from: TwoCatSam on August 15, 2013, 01:11:00 AM
Does the "when" (five reds) not decide the "where" (black)?

You are so on the money Sam. In my humble opinion, you are right. Most of the cases I have seen in my limited knowledge, I stress most, "When" guides "where". However they are two individual topics and decisions. Let me explain with an example.

Joe spiffy decides to see five X in a row and bet against it. He brings a friend Joe bloggs to the casino who decides to see five X in a row and bet for it. The decision "for" or "against" is "Where". "Five X in a row" is when. Even though it is guiding the "where", it is an independent decision by itself. Both of them plays for five in a row, while Brett morton plays for 6 in a row. This is what I have as a question. Does it matter whether it is 5 or 6 or 7. Sam, I hope I am getting this right. It would be very useful to know what you think of this explanation. I may be completely wrong here.

Extending that thought, Now in a few cases, the when does not completely guide the where. For example, Speedy Gonzales, we play "for" and "against" alternatively independent of whether it was a win or loss the previous spin. There is no or very little when (very little because one might say when you last played for, play against next) involved here. However there is a strong "when" aspect comes in when Speedy advices us to play the last played selection after two consecutive losses. This is the one am trying to get to the bottom of? Does it really matters when you shift after two consecutive losses.

Yippee! Opened a betfair account. They actually charge money for depositing? They charged me 2% for using paypal to deposit. Interesting

I thought, I will try getting accustomed to the site and was browsing around. Did try betting on the first match. I never heard of these club names before and went with the bookies favourite. So a good, lucky and blind start
[attachimg=1]


The thing that's irritating me is fractional odds. I think am better at decimals. Anyone knows of a option/setting that I can use to see decimal odds?


Now I looked at what's going to happen this weekend and read through loads and loads of material over the last 2 days. As suggested by you all, am going to risk 20% of my bankroll as a start. Giving 5% bet size, that gives me 4 matches to bet on.


I am thinking my first pick will be Reading vs Watford. Familiar towns. I have been to a couple of Reading matches last year. Going by the recent streaks, I am going to go for Watford to win at 9/5 odds.


Second one is crystal palace vs Tottenham. I am going to go against the bookies here and go for crystal palace to win or draw considering it is happening in their ground and their recent performances are good. Tottenham is kind of going through a choppy period.

Next is Liverpool vs stoke. Going to go for Liverpool or Stoke. Clueless on what to pick as the fourth one. Any feedback on selections so far and hint on fourth bet will be helpful

I was trying to understand sports betting better and was going through lots of reading while I was travelling to and returning from Coventry. I came across this and it sounded very interesting. But when I did my maths, they are not adding up.

Anything more than two accumulations is not stacking up. For eg, lets consider 3 games. An accumulator bet winning all 3 will yield better profits compared to betting all 3 individually. But at the same time, even if 1 result doesn't go my way, individual bets are taking a far better position compared to accumulators.

I might be missing something here. What are your views on it?

For me atleast at the moment, there is a conclusive proof based on what I have tested and what the experts have said, "where" part of the betselection is pure guess work. If someone claims that he can improve the prediction level, I am confident enough to say "No, you can't". But as Sam always tells, "Only time will tell". May be tomorrow someone will come and prove that actually the "where" part matters. Until then, I am not going to rely too much on the "where" part to succeed. All I am going to do is go with the flow and probably try out with certain methodical "where" selection instead of random, with the fact that "IT DOESN'T MATTER" in the back of my mind. For this reason, I am  not going to continue the testing as rigorously as I started out, but will do them once in a while to keep reminding me of this fact.

Now, I am going to focus on the "when" part as this is another fascinating area for me, I am not able to get a handle on. There are a multitude of subjects that we can talk about, including virtual bets, triggers and so on. Some like "Number six" say there is personal permanance. Before I embark on another testing episode to put the facts to these, would like to know if any one wishes to test any of their beliefs/disbeliefs on the timing or the "when" part. Let me know and I shall start from there.

Quote from: TwoCatSam on August 14, 2013, 09:45:36 PM
Sooner or later, you'll find it mostly all Voodoo! 

Sam! I don't want to be remembered as the person who spoke too soon. I should be careful while making such statements. [smiley]aes/blush.png[/smiley]
I am still waiting for random to come and eat me live and it nearly happened the last time I played when I tried chasing the losses. Thank God, something shook me and took it out from its grasps!

As far as I understand, it gives you the number of pockets that the spins shifted and how many times that shift happened.

So, if you had jumps or distance between the numbers that spun as 6,8,9,5,0,1,6,8,6 - then essentially this will produce a graph with 6 bars with 4 bars with occurance of 1, 1 bar with occurance of  2 and 1 bar with occurance of 3. What strategy you can play to use this information, I think its left to your creativity and imagination.

You might see that there is a high frequency of jumps/distances between 6 and 8, so you might want to cover the neighbours of number which is 6 pockets away. That's my reading.

Quote from: Dragoner on August 14, 2013, 03:38:54 PM
Rather a suggestion to not bet without information on the game.

Thanks and completely with you. I may not be an expert in the game I have chosen, but I think I can take informed decisions based on the knowledge that is available with me and available in sporting sites. I am going to start small may be 50$ to start with, as that is something that I can afford losing, while I learn the tricks of the trade. And I am going to stick to the win/lose/draw on the game bets to start with rather than going into the bets on detailed elements on the game.

Cheers
Yanks

@ Superman, Thanks for such a detailed reply and I completely understand where this is heading to. It further clarifies the opinion that I had on the "Where" part of the bet selection. It matters only little and you really cannot get a handle on it. Also, there are a lot of factors that you are pointing out to which really make sense like the mind set of a player, the ability of not giving up on a session but giving up on an attack when you think things are not going your way, not being greedy, why it is not H&R, keeping things simple all make perfect sense to me and are huge learnings for a person starting out like me.

@Drazen, I don't think statistics based betting is going to lead anyone anywhere. After having tested over millions and millions of spins and  multiple methods in the last few weeks since I started on roulette, I think it will purely lead you to where the statistics of roulette lead you to. NEGATIVE EXPECTATION.

I am inclined to think that playing and enjoying success in roulette is an art and not science. Of course there is a science element to it, like dancing which I enjoy doing, there are scientific elements which will govern which pose to take, what steps to do, what is the optimal balance point of your body etc, but it is still an art to master. The force of the ball being released and the velocity of the wheel and the randomness and statistics behind it will be the science part of it, but I am more and more getting convinced that it is the art part of it, which takes precedence.

I agree with you that there is an amount of guess work that is involved here, because Superman is never saying that he wins every bet, he just adopts a bit of elasticity in his money management based on what he thinks the table behaves. He might be right, he might be wrong. But I do also agree it is neither voodoo nor rocket science.

Now comes the question of whether it can be botted, yes it can be to a certain degree but not to the degree the human mind is capturing and taking a decision whether it is right or wrong, because a machine can always think only the right way to do it. Its like when you ask for directions in map from one place to other, the machine can show you a number of possible way to reach a destination, it can take a decision and let you know the optimal way to go based on a certain factor, but it cannot beat the effectiveness of an experienced taxi driver. Is the taxi driver doing Voodoo, no he is not. Is he doing rocket science, no not at all.  He is just playing by his experience and nothing beats it!

I am going to take a BR of 500$ that I have earned in the past few weeks and going to use it to understand this kind of play in a bit more detail over the next few days. I am going to start playing in real money, because this is all about human tendency and mind set. The testing and experience will not be the same if I play with fun money, as it is not going to give me the right set of conditions for testing. I hope Superman, you will be around to provide some feedback while I practice this art.