I do not use win anything or much playing EC. The chance to win is of course larger than any inside bet, but the pay out is smaller.
If we progress hard, some losses put us back very fast, and the recover needs a good streak or even larger bets. When playing just one number, we can wait 100 or more spins to get a hit and  have a chance to recover and go plus. A bad streak EC I think is hard to caching up.


I will try a way to overcome this, by aiming for a plus in a longer series of spins. I will bet at least minimum every bet. The bankroll used will be 15000 units. I can for now not do it in other than fun mode.


I start now and publish screenshot. I have not exactly the plan ready, may adjust as the play goes.

Quote from: billion loudspeaker on February 14, 2013, 07:15:42 AM
i'm not talking about checking this and testing that or looking at this or that 10000 spins for comparison

i'm talking about putting chips on the table X amount of times and copping the numbers on the chin, win or lose

when the money's down can you beat your personal permanence? that's the alpha/omega of it

The answer was to Sam. And the test i did was to explain just that, you can only count the spins you play. I test very little using simulations, that's not needed.


I do not always make the maximum to win. I like to play, so if I can get a 48% chance to win over a longer  run I can do it. If I did not like to play and just want to see if I can win, I have better put all at once at one bet.

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 14, 2013, 06:02:34 AM
he says he plays for the short term wins but he also says you're always in the long run.

A contradictory statement if I ever read one.  If there is no short term, you can't play for the short term.  You are playing the long term a chunk at a time.  I'm not sure what the "long run" is.

But I agree, the numbers you encounter are yours.  Mine are mine.  For a time they may differ.  But over time, they will be the same and one could not tell mine from yours.

My opinion only;  I have not been up the mountain.

Sam

Sam!
In along series the numbers even out to some extent. But every time you spin 10000 spins, you do it for the first time, you have never before seen that sequence, and will never do it again. All 10000 spins are insane rare. 10000 with only number 5 sounds mad, but it has the same probability as any 10000 spins we do.


As most in the game, we know best afterwards. If you practice HAR, you never know if it was better to break or not.
We can do an experiment, play HAR and notice the numbers in between and then compare. I have done some such work some years ago, and I can tell, there are situations you will win using it and situations you will lose, it do not help, and it do not harm.


The same seems do be valid for tracking patterns, but I have not checking it up so carefully.


It is easier to find why we lose (HE small bankroll) than find why we win. We win against the odds.

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 14, 2013, 05:47:19 AM
Does luck flow in cycles?

I'm of the opinion it does.  Somehow, I think luck is not a good word for it.  At least, not for the way I'm thinking.

Luck would be finding a lottery ticket and winning a million.  Unlike the golfer who is trying for a hole in one, it's pure luck as he was not trying to find a lottery ticket. 

I like synchronization!  The numbers BV RNG is producing are in synch with what I'm asking the bot to do.  Or they are not.  Let us say the system wins 75% of the time.  The 25% when it loses are when the numbers are out of synch.  No reason for this to happen; it just does.

In the days I've been running these bots on two different computers, it amazes me how the numbers can come so perfectly for ages and then turn on you.  So it seems to me I get cycles where the numbers fit the program and cycles where they don't.

The question for me is how long do you stick with the game when the numbers are running against you?  When to get out?  When to sweat it out?

Sam

I decide before the amount to risk, and use it to the last penny. The bankroll exist for the loss, if you should be able to play without a losing bet, you have no use for a bankroll, just one chip needed.


Good and bad streaks goes in cycles, but the amplitude is not possible to know. Small swings are more frequent than larger, that's the simple reason we need a bankroll, and it should not be too small.


Even if I put 1000 Euro in the game account, I stick to pennies units. The nature of the progressions on inside makes the stakes more than  a cent, it can be up to a few Euros some times.


You can win for weeks and more, and suddenly start lose using the same method. 


The compare with the golf player is not that good, every time you try, it is a small chance to hit hole in one, and just do it many, many times it should happen. If you have to pay a fee every time you need a "bankroll".


Compare the hole in one with playing fun mode, try to parlay a straight up three times. It may takes time, but it will in time happen.
It will as well happen in real mode, but there the bankroll is real, and it is not at all sure the bankroll will stand it.


The casino wins due to the large bankroll and the HE. The player wins due to variance at the positive side and many times the strength of the bankroll is needed.


We can very often ride out a downswing, but there are situations we can not effort to go trough.

In 5000 spins there are  36/37 chance to lose a straight up bet every time. The pay out is 1/36 if we include the stake.


The game has a variance, with to a large extents can be overcome using a large bankroll. There is no way to win if we do not play to overcome  the variance against the play. The HE we can never  change, so the variance is not the enemy only, you need it on your side to win.


We can not predict which path of the billions of possible, the 5000 spins will take, we have the probability, but it helps not very much at a fixed odds game.  If we use a method which can stand some drawdown, and add the luck we will win. We guess the next bet, or we let a method do the guesswork.


A progression will help but increase the risk. It is hard to gain any winnings flat, even that is possible.


For example a labby need 1/3  of the bets winning to go plus, but it can lose a lot.
Martingale can handle an large unbalance like  20% black and 80% red, if it is distributed even   rrrrbrrrrb......


A l'Ambert can not handle a large unbalance, but an uneven distribution  bbbbbrrrrr, it must near even out.


People playing poker focus at the odds, and try to low the variance, on a fixed odds game with -EV, we must have the
variance on our side.  Some claim they can find the entry point to get the variance at the good side. I think it is probably
not possible, It is that I use to call luck, when we find the winning streak and go for a piss, just when the bad streaks arrive.

A method which use to win, will sometimes lose. I think it does matter which method you use, but no one can guarantee you will end up winning.   The best we can do is to use money we can risk without harming our life.


It is possible to win, and it is possible we lose, it is gambling.

Quote from: Bayes on February 12, 2013, 01:49:06 PM
Ralph,

Interesting, but the article is about psychology - whether the players are biased, not the wheel.

Yes, I know, but that is an issue to take in account!  The players are hardly biased, that's a function in our mind making us human and gave us advantages trough millions of years.

Some scientific research!


http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~baron/journal/06001/jdm06001.htm

100 spins using 0.1 chips. I do not recommend using 0.1 chips if you not have about 1000 Euro, which you have not any other use for. 

One way to try to overcome the -ev, is to  make a guess if it will chop or be series. This play I assume it will not chop most of the time. It went streaky for a while and I just FTL bet. Trying to get 10.

Quote from: MarignyGrilleau on February 10, 2013, 03:32:43 PM

No less...

Done![attachimg=1]

The session after  880 spins

It is enough to be ahead once, if we stay  a head!  The problems with all tests is they can not always be replicated.

It works fine here!

The last 613 spins!  0.01 units.






I want to advice you to not regard this as a never losing system, every method can lose, use surplus money, or fun mode.
You can win or you can lose, that's the game.

Quote from: Sputnik on February 10, 2013, 01:13:48 PM
How do you mean, i don't understand, can you elaborate a littel more about the subject.

Many Thanks

You wrote you can lose a bankroll in every 80 sessions. If you reach 90 bankrolls, the probability of losing  is rather small.


A "Winning system"  need a very good start to stay a "winning system". It is possible, a lucky start will do it.


I  have got a long winning streak, the best way to keep it is to play less and lower after. Not shift to higher bets, which wipe it out in the first not avoidable bad sessions.