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Messages - Ralph

#361
General Discussion / When and why are we winning!
January 22, 2013, 05:50:01 PM
We test and if it goes not very well, we reject it. If the test works we try it real, we can win or lose.
I am not used to lose, and I test on real play if I am allowed. The rejected tanking methods are later used by others, and they claim it is a winner.


I did this play due to 1 add  on loss and 1 minus on win, had been bad in some tests on low stakes ( lost 5000 (cent) twice in a row).


Just for(try)  show the game is a game of chance, i did a short play, using 1 Euro on the last color and 0.1 on the last number.
I won some and hit the both color and number three times in  42 spins.


Who will state it is the methods which  is a winner or it just went well by chance?


Some may say it is a short run and it is just luck. I do not argue, but that's about the longer runs?


I have been working to simplify methods to the extreme, and I can not see it will work less good than the troublesome methods which occupy the player with a lot of paperwork or software and time. It may be done for fun, and this is OK, but I am not sure it helps winning, even if you win.


The game has 2.7 in edge, it is smart of the casinos to have it low, because nobody play if you can not win, and the human memory is so, you can ask any who plays, the answer will seldom be "I lose", it will be  "I win" or more common "I am at about break even". The last statement is probably true, ABOUT is very like 2.7 % in loss.


Some of us are lucky and make gain other are not, I am not sure it is the methods. To SOME extent but not the greater part.
#362
The second sessions group is now up to  3338 spins the total spins are 13000   spins. The "HG" is still on track.
Two times it has been very close to bust, and it is just the factor luck made it survive, Nobody can say a hit must happen in a method close to a bust, that's luck. Anyhow a  method which stands over 13k spins is worth to try, but we must be aware it is possible to bust any session. In the worst  case  if the two scary sessions had bust it should
not be minus in units as it had won more units before  that happen.


During this spins the gain has been  23500 units, a very good result, about 2 units a spin.


The unit count differ from the Euro count as the  play has been done using 0.01 and 0.1 chips, with a bankroll of 10000 units in all played sessions.  The Euro gain is total  (fun)  Euro 709.74.


I will stop the test at this point.
#363
The second sessions group is now  1600 spins and plus 1615 units.


The total is up to 18226  +  1615 =  19841
#364
Quote from: TwoCatSam on January 21, 2013, 02:45:46 PM
Ralph

As I read it, you are betting one one-hundredth of your bankroll?  Right?

Sam


Yes Sam!
#365
Around 1000 spins since I started the second session, break here, as I have some other things to do.


The Total is now 19246 units.
#366
This game is not busting yet, I do not want it, but at the same time want to know how far it can run.


I started a new play, this time using 0.1 chips. This make no difference especially not in fun mode. I will add units to the previous, not the money value.


I recognize math as a science and know it is 2.7 %  against me. I do not agree to fundamentalism which say I have already lost, as I pay 2.7% to the bank every spin if I win or not.


This time I have 683 more spin and it went 920 units plus. So total  18909 units plus in total  10986 spins.


One picture shows all  games I have done since start, to show there is no red figure sessions hidden.
#367
General Discussion / Carelessness Costs !!
January 21, 2013, 06:17:00 AM
I have forgot the win target a few times, that's the reason my bot will not do more than one spin, if no win target is set.
Still you can set it too high.
#368
Some posts are miles long due to the poster want to show a long session of play, and that is of course OK, and needed for explaining the topic. If we replay on this topics, it is not needed to quote the whole post, some threads becomes miles long and the scrolling we have to do can make the threads less attractive to follow and read.


We can remove the long col of numbers in the replies, it is already found in the original post.


It is examples of very long replies, and the replay is three words, and sometimes out of topic.
#369
Mixed / Near flat betting and "ever lasting" bankroll
January 21, 2013, 04:49:52 AM

I have tested this only ten sessions. All session went as I wanted. The win goal is 10% of the risking bankroll.
In my case I start with 100 Euro, and aiming for a balance of 110. 




I expected the sessions should be very long, but those ten lasted about 200 spins each.




It is very simple rules. We bet as many cent as we have  euros in the game account. If bankroll is 100.00 we start with 1 Euro on an EC.
If we win we have 101, then we bet 1.01 Euro, if we lose we have 99 and then bet 0.99. We can use any betselection we are confident works better. I used FTL.




It will take very lot of losses to lose all the bankroll, and soon or later we may climb up to a bet of 1.1 which should mean we reached our target. The method demonstrate the strength of any betselection.
#370
Math & Statistics / Re: A question for the maths guys!
January 20, 2013, 07:04:03 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on January 20, 2013, 06:42:25 PM
You should also be aware that the odds for losses in a row are calculated differently.

The odds to lose is 33%

The odds to lose twice is .33 x .33 = .10

The odds to lose three times is .33 x .33 x .33 = .033

You have a 97% of winning all three step, double dozen Marti's.

In other words, you will lose three times for every 100 attempts.




Yes but we must look at the probability including some reasonable devination in our favour, we can not say the outcome must the same every 1000 times we try. If somebody claims an outcome we can not say it is not possible by just look att the 2/3 times trials.
#371
Math & Statistics / Re: A question for the maths guys!
January 20, 2013, 05:20:08 PM
I have (in fun) tested JL 2/3 play using progressions. I did not do it because I thought it would win, as 2/3 bet I have always thought is the worse bets.  It  will have a minor chance to stand 100 trials in a row. The probability of have 1000 in a row (and I mean spins with bet) must be way out of common experience. What is the odds, one or max two in 10 millions here are yearly hit by thunder lightens, so rare things can happen.
#372
If the server at the casino not respond or has connection problems, the bot could try to start place bets while the table still was locked. This is fixed (but still not for downloading please wait until I tell it is an update).  This is not very easy to fix, it is possible to loop wait until the casino unlock the table, but it can happen it never does or it take very long time. Then the program will hang. The solution I have coded is it waits for the casino maximum 30 seconds, if the casino is not responding during 30 seconds, the bot will turn autospin off, and we have to restart. The scripts will keep theire values so the play will resume when we start again. In my testing I had 240 chips in play, and the bot never placed before the casino was ready. Sometimes the graphics in the game have not time to update, it can looks not every bet are placed, but it is, as with the casino autospin, the casino not always wait for the graphics to update, and start spinning before.
This can happen only when very large numbers of chips are placed.


Still I have to fix the history display, if the casino have connection problem, the history display can miss a number and duplicate a number. I will look into that in the coming week, if it is easy to fix, it will come in the update during the week.
Otherwise I will upload it anyhow, as the first problem is more annoying.


I post when it is uploaded.
#373
Gf is far more easy to use then admit using! ;)
#374
10000 spins done, quite a few. The plus is  18226  The last 1000 spins went without deep down drown. Got hit early after a progress, which make a lot of difference. Just once during the play total we can say it was scary. That happen then the plus was near about the potential loss.








#375
More than 9000 spins done. The plus is 17275


I got not any deep down drown this time I have had 9000 once, and the second is 4000 in all the 9000 spins.
The number has always been number 1. In 9000 spins it must be close to  an 1/37 of the spins (did not check for this).