It would be of a great suprise if the millon spis will last winning. We know every thing can happen, but it is probably not so the casinos will close or much change the rules to play. In a infinite (which we can always just be in as a limited part of it) it can happen  JL and  all here can win using it, at the probability is as the humans will be in extinct in 100  years. ( the game of JL I think has less probability, but not impossible). After a second thougth JL may have better chance than we are here in 100 years, that's hard to digest.

I have study the game long time, what I still have to learn is the stop/loss. It is the most delicate in the game, if you know that well, you can win.   Low stop/loss makes too many loss sessions, which could be recovered, to high is a killer.


I got in half a month (this year up a plus max at 2300 Euro, and loss 800 in one session.  I do not yet know if I ever reach the 2300 with tighter stop/loss.


At the moment I think stop fast or take it rather high, in between it will work less good.

Quote from: VLS on January 14, 2013, 02:29:37 PM
It's still a positive progression to me.

i.e. +1 on a win... regardless of what happened before.

May be, but we talk about progressions like martingale or similar, we increase the stake on a loss to chase the loss, here we wait to a win.  The classical parlay raise on plus to win more (so call bank money). Here we try to recover, we raise the stake (on hit), it is to recover and come back. I think it is a not really the same.

The probaility do not works, nobody has seen 37 unique numbers. The matter of fact is the probability of a repeater increase after every spin. Just think all numbers has shown except one. The probability of a number hit is 1/37, which mean the probabillity of a repeater then is 36/37. It is no magic it in the pure math, and some math guys do not think so far.

Best is to win and second not lose, break even. I think it is not many players not agree!

I use positive progression to recoup, but I am not sure if it is a positive as I raise the stake when I am on minus, and only on a win. It sounds as it is nor positive or negative, What to call it?


A  single number or a split can sleeps long, I avoid negative progression, on a hit and that fact is was sleeping, it is useful to use the winning chips for double gain if it hits. It should hit sooner or later.

Quote from: JohnLegend on January 14, 2013, 06:24:50 AM
Albalaha, heres how I look at it. You could lose more than 242 units flat betting. And people do, if the methods no good.

I know people who have drawdowns into four figures. And spend days trying to recover. Now on the surface 242 looks like a crazy risk to win 1 unit.

But If my strikerate playing H.A.R ends up being several thousand to one. Its not so crazy anymore. As I said, I don't want anyone to play this progression.

I am financially strong enough to do this experiment. And that's why I've undertaken to-find out if its as good as it looks on past results live.

When ever you enter the playing, it is beyond any reasonable chance it can work 1000 of times in a row. The chance of two or more bust after each ohter are not very small. In the game of roulette everything can happen, so it is not impossible, just very unlikley. If we got a simulator and it were possible to run it as you play, I am sure very few will fix 1000 of spins without a bust.


We know any method played of a large number of persons, one or a few will come out very well, most will not.

Quote from: Ophis on January 14, 2013, 08:05:02 AM
154... is the max number of spins i have seen any 6 numbers slept for.
95... is the max for 6 numbers in board order (DS)

either way u could expect 150+ sleeps.

The method can bear a long sleeper as long it is compensated in less than 2000 spins, after that there are problems with the HE, to many zeros have been in the outcome. It is the average number of hits in appr 2000 spins which make it win or bust.

At http://www.bettingsimulation.com/ you can run simulation on some classic systems.


I did 10 simulations of three different systems.  Playing 1 unit had 20000 in bankroll and run every session for 10000 spins, no win target.


Martingale lost 7 times of 10 the loss was sometimes the whole bankroll.


D'Alembert lost every time  2 times the bankroll.


Fibonacci won every time  between 1200 and 1700.


Ten trials is not much, but it was 10000 spins.


The reason I tested was I thought D'Alembert was even worse then Marty, It looks not so bad using about 30 units in the stakes, but when it goes for a long period it eats on the bankroll.


Marty was a killer, but not as D'Alembert (they lose heavy).


The good result on Fib was probably some lucky play, it should lose as well, but the example show it is possible to double a bankroll of 20000 in 100000 spins despite the HE.


I do not know if the script is written so it shows  a random result.

Quote from: seykid31 on January 14, 2013, 05:13:51 AM
What about playing with progression 11111 22222 33333 each win,we fall back 5 paces
if we win on 7th step which is after playing 11111 22 we go back 5 paces on the 3rd 1(111) and we pick up from there.

Which is best depends on the numbers coming out.  And if we want to reach new high in less spins, which is more risky we do not know before the play.  A ds sleep for 90 spins I had once I did not use a stoploss and the bets become very high. I come out, but it was due to very good hit rates at the end.


I think a stoploss of 200 is OK or 2000, in between I am not sure. 200 gives more loss, but a reasonable chance to catch it up, which 1000 may not. 2000 we will reach if lucky very seldom.

Quote from: TwoCatSam on January 14, 2013, 04:17:27 AM
Stef

Dang!!  I can't believe I left out the "7" when I wrote windows.  See why I need bots?? 

Sam

Sam!


I should work using Windows 7. How is your RAM?  You may increase the virtual memory, as you had Vista before I suppouse the computer has a few years and may have low ram. The bot is demanding on memory.  On an  AMD processor at a computer with smaller ram it works, but slower.

Quote from: Trebor on January 13, 2013, 11:49:19 AM
I agree with this.


As long as you're happy with a low strike rate playing one or two numbers is the way to go, just as MrJ is always telling us.


I like to use a positive progression. This has the effect of making sessions of a manageable length, resulting in either a reasonable win target reached or a stop loss.


Trebor

Yes if the session is too long, if the variance late will come in favour, the HE will work the session apart. I have had sessions of 2000 spins, and if it is a ZeroWheel it can not be much longer, before it is killed by the HE. In the shorter sessions the variance has larger impact than the HE, but it will catch up, as it grows for every spin, and the variance should even out.

I have tested ( a lot) playing from EC:s to straight ups using a progression which add one on a win, if not on plus.


At the first look it seem like playing straight ups, should need a larger bankroll and due to variance  come in problem if the number sleeps a long time than for example a doublestreet or a dozen.


We  can however we bet always come into situations which is near or impossible to save, but I have seen it is not so common with straight ups and splits as lower variance bets.


I have a double street which were 1000 units down and then turn and after 331 spins ended with 20 plus. Just a few loss more had probably  made me stop.


A DS which hits just under its average for long time make the bets higher very soon, and it can not recover which a few hits, it will not be "hot" for so many spins, the session takes long and wave up and down for long time.


On the other hand a straight up, if it come out far under average, it cost  one or two chip a bet, and it needs one or just a few hits to catch up even if it is far behind.


From playing a lot of sessions, my experience is straight up and split are at least not  more risky than double streets using the method, probably safer.


The pay out and the probability  and odds says it should not matter which bet we do, but that's  on the average, the problem happen when the hit rate are low for long.

I got the feeling it is right time to try it once again. Used this time 0.5 chips and went throught the six doublestreet in less than 30 spins.


Total for session  35.49 (odd due to a bet by misstake of 0.01).

The last DS went for 6 spins. Plus 1.5.


All done and it went  fast and easy.


Total 11.60 and about 25 minutes.