Quote from: Gizmotron on April 23, 2013, 10:54:33 PM
You look for the best opportune moments and you take advantage of them. There is ample proof that opportunity exist. It's no mystery how to exploit it. It's also no mystery how to stay out of bad sections of any session.

I'll go along with this.   We may all see opportunity a little differently...some in black or red and some on a few numbers or maybe even "a" number, and certainly a ton of option in-between...but the basis of Gizmo's statement here I believe is accurate.

My two cents anyway

I did about 5 minutes of looking on this...Gizmo is this the basis (I know or presume the basis would actually be in the interpretation of what is tracked and what you do with that interpretation) of what everybody is looking for? If they search this----Tracking Software for Practice Real Play

Like I said I only looked for about 5 minutes because people keep asking.  Looking at the tracker format it wasn't my cup of tea because I am just stuck in my ways of betting just a couple inside numbers and I'm usually looking at repeaters of one form or another or repeating wheel sectors so all the outside tracking wasn't huge to me...although I realize the outside tracking does correlate to those pesky inside numbers (something about old dogs probably applies here).  If I'm way off track that's okay too...at least it can narrow things down for everybody a little more as to what you're not referring to then.

I am with Victor here.  Compounding is a very powerful concept.

One big bank, turned into a dozen little banks all working independently towards a common goal of each being "friggin huge" (it's a trade term) banks on their own.  Plus, like has been said...we don't have to wait a year for each to compound...each one can move every day you play.  Start with small units and increase unit size as each of your "mini" banks grow.  Not getting too big too fast keeps you in the game in case of a really bad run and there's nothing wrong with winning a little less versus losing alot more. 

Compounding is the building block on top of a foundation of good bet selection.  Get rich slow (slow meaning not overnight) instead of getting broke fast...it's just common sense and good business planning.

Quote from: Sputnik on March 15, 2013, 06:41:05 PM

I still find modified RWD is the best solution playing one number ...

I've used an RWD type approach on wheel sectors and occassionally on the felt...never done it on a single number though...I'll have to investigate...how do you differentiate the multiple numbers that may awaken in any one series of spins?  Would you go with the longest sleeper to have awaken within the context of the selection or possibly any sleeper within the series that maybe fit an additional criteria...something along the lines of an awakening number in a hot wheel sector?

I kinda like repeating numbers (hot numbers).  Have you tried this method by starting with the hottest number in the last so many spins?  I guess if 21 is the magic number here.  Use the hottest number over the last 21 spins to start with and then add the hottest number of each subsequent 21 spin cycle to the mix instread of just randomly selecting.

Just asking...
if you have 37000 spins tested I thought maybe you would have some data on that variation of the bet selection and I would be curious as to the variance in performance versus the random selection based on whatever number popped up at the time of the next selection.

Agreed...don't panic and press when you are down...but by all means press during a winning streak.  Easier said then done...tough to always see the beginning of a good run and then if you didn't press after you realize you're in it...  Do you press then and risk that it is already done and you missed it?  All big parts of the equation and experience goes a long way...sometimes you just have to have been there and done it enough times to have a reasonable expectation of the outcomes and how you are going to react...either way it goes.

Everyone discusses the rules and the what-if this and what-if that.   Bankroll has a ton to do with your odds at success.

Sitting down to the table with $100 is a sure-fire way to get killed.  There are drawdowns...it's a part of the game.  You don't have to outlast the casino...but you have to be able to outlast the RFH, and if you can outlast the RFH 2 or 3 times over...you are in a much better position to succeed.  Where does discipline usually fly out the window?...when you are off your game.  Being down $50 on a $100 bankroll may be unnerving...certainly $85 down into $100 would be.  But $200 into $1000 is no big deal and easily covered with a short burst of wins.  Being properly financed lets you keep your cool.

Concerning the EC's and 2:1's...I personally play a few inside numbers because of their ability to compound your money quickly and recover when you are down...but we all have our favorite bets.

We control when to bet or not to bet.  We control where to place our bet...and where not to place our bet.  And of course within limits (table limits) we choose how much to bet after we decide when and where.

Anyone who has spent a decent amount of time at a table can certainly attest that patience and discipline are major factors separating successful players from unsuccessful players.  The house is strictly disciplined...there are hard and fast rules that they play by...pick your game...Obvious example...Blackjack they have to hit or hold based on strict rules.  What is the house edge on Blackjack?  Baccarat?  Roulette?  We all know the numbers.  But what are the real returns that the casinos generate from these venues?    Guy sits next to me with $500 and later leaves with nothing...as do most of the other people $100 or $1000 at a time during the same time period.  Why didn't he simply lose his 2.7%?  Because he was undisciplined with bad bet selection (obviously) and likely that was coupled with bad money management.

A progression with no stop-loss could certainly be the end of a huge bankroll.  But a slight progression (this goes both ways negative or positive) can be a useful weapon in the arsenal with well thought out stop-losses along the way both from the winning side on the way back down or on the total implosion scenario side.  Will we sometimes lose...sure...everybody sometimes loses.  But at the end of the day (month) the experienced disciplined player, properly funded with a good plan can and should certainly come out ahead.  If I can't beat a 2.7% negative expectancy by using the knowledge and tools available to me...I deserve to lose.

Bet Selection + Patience + Good Money Management + Discipline + Solid Starting Bankroll will beat the house edge...I believe that wholeheartedly.

My goal is generally to break even or make small wins while playing "opportunities that maybe weren't what I thought they would be". 




But along the way some opportunities are exactly what I thought they would become...and those are the instances where roulette really pays.  I don't know that you can put percentages on it in most cases.  It is what it will become.  If I get a few good strikes I try to only give back 15%-20% of what hopefully is a pretty nice gain chasing the continuation of the run.  At some point the run has to end...don't chase too long...then come back later to attack once again.




No matter how good you are there are inevitable losses...play in a manner to limit the downside without tempering the upside...in the end if your style of play in solid...you will come out ahead.  Discipline and patience.

Quote from: Gizmotron on February 21, 2013, 05:43:02 PM
I can win any session if I find the opportunities and exploit them while they occur. While at the same time not making big mistakes. It's really a simple method. It doesn't make redicliouse expectations of the game. Good moments come and go all the time. All it does is exploit that. It deliberately avoids the bad moments that the mathboys say you can't avoid. I say you can. I've proven it to myself. I've always said that anyone could prove it to themselves. That would be proof that you would believe too.

It's all about picking your battles...the better you pick 'em...the happier you are.  Opportunities exist (if you can recognize them...we all see them a little differently)...what you do with them is up to you!

An argument can be made that your "luck" is linked to your level of preparedness at any given point in time.  How are some people seemingly long-term lucky while others catch a big hit once in a blue moon  (and the one-hit wonders usually give it all back in the next 30 minutes anyways...just a continuing observation of mine)

I would suggest that to at least a certain degree...certainly for the serious players...we build our luck much like we build a structure...start with a strong foundation and hope there's not a tornado or earthquake before we're all "weathered in"

Am I lucky to make $5000 in a night?  Not if I deviated from what I know and could have made $10,000.  What about if I lose $600?  Maybe I was "lucky" I didn't lose $2,000 because I recognized some things and changed course.  Just something to think about

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 13, 2013, 05:39:57 PM
Is all that is needed to win a large enough bankroll and a robot that stop when it hits the lucky win goal?

Sam

You need a few things to make your own "luck"
A big bankroll certainly helps...as a small bankroll is certainly a recipe for disaster
A stable bet selection would be nice
And...to go along with that big bankroll...a huge bet spread so you can play thru the bad luck...start low and be able to play a progression that never hits a table limit linked with the big bankroll
hmmmmmm...pretty much makes you sound like the house at that point...and the house always seems pretty lucky

How would this work with a flat bet for 7 spins then stop if no wins on 7 spins...then res-start after a virtual win...again for 7 spins and if you wanna use a progression...bump up after each new losing series.

Example
WLLLLLLLstop bettingLLLLLW(now start at 2 units per number)LLLLLLLstopLLLW(now start at 3 or 4 units per number...I would go 3 here and then work down one unit after a winning session based on how it looks from your brief posted results).

Just a thought to keep your progression from immediately killing you.  With a decent strike rate on a 5 number bet you shouldn't get too many losing series in a row so you shouldn't get too deep on the drawdown.  Flat all the way with the stop-loss is probably safer...but I know you want to use a progression.

Might want to look at an enhanced bet somewhere in the 5 numbers if you hit a hot streak...after a win add 1 or 2 units to your primary target number...something along those lines so you can potentially really make some money without risking much beyond your previous winnings.

There's alot you can do with a 4 or 5 number bet...I would start there...but that's just me

Quote from: Bally6354 on February 12, 2013, 12:13:08 AM


My personal opinion is that it makes no difference seperating spins between CW and CCW.

I think on the other board the discussion regarding CW vs CCW was in situations such as some airball machines that spin one direction twice and then reverese for two spins or alternate direction every spin.  Most of the live dealer wheels I play they just keep 'em spinning in all one direction all the time. 
I don't know if there is a discernable difference on most, some, or any wheels...but if you're tracking and testing...why not include all variables and be as thorough as possible?  If something is there that can be useful you have isolated it, analyzed it and can choose to use or not use it...or you can see that it makes no difference whatsoever and remove it from consideration and move on.
Just my thoughts on that aspect of the discussion.

yup...stick with what works

I agree...us vs. the machine and lots of spins...nice combination (usually)

Since I usually play a few repeating numbers I think my opportunity on a dozen sleeping for 30 spins or for 20 reds in a row is...get the hell outta the casino...because I likely just made a ton of money. 

On the off chance that it was 20 reds in a row AND a dozen sleeping for 30 in a row at the same time...well then I stick around...because I then own some stock in that casino. Hey where's the little smiley guy rolling around on the ground laughing his &ss off?