Our members are dedicated to PASSION and PURPOSE without drama!
This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.
#26
General Discussion / This text is moving from right to left - test.
February 05, 2015, 02:50:27 PM #27
Dozen/Column / Two dozen method by Turbo
January 21, 2015, 03:01:21 PM
This method is by TurboGenius and i like the method very much.
One reason is that you need no tracking and it is easy to play.
You track the last four dozen that hit and bet against them on a rolling basis.
2.
3.
3.
3.
2 L.
2 W.
2 W.
1 W.
1 W.
2 L.
1 W.
2 W.
1 L.
1 W.
3 W.
1 W.
1 L.
2 W.
1 W.
3 W.
2 W.
2 L.
1 L.
1 W.
2 L.
1 W.
1 L.
2 W.
3 W.
3 W.
1 L.
3 W.
3 L.
1 W.
2 W.
2 W.
1 W.
2 W.
1 W.
1 W.
2 W.
2 L.
3 W.
2 W.
3 W.
2 L.
3 L.
1 W
3 L
1 W
1 W
1
1
2
2
1
2
I want to play and have a reason standing next to the wheel starring at it.
Then i been thinking about this method.
But a 4 step marty would be to agressive for my taste, so i was thinking to use one skip and flat betting the first two bets and raise the last one.
I want to play as much i can and lose as little i can during that time standing next to the wheel starring at it and collecting data.
1:1
1:1
2:2
That way i win with my first bet and accept loses with my secound and last bet.
The idea is that first bet and secound bet will hovering around break even territorium.
As first wins one unit and the secound lose one unit.
WWWWLWWWWWWLWW
One reason is that you need no tracking and it is easy to play.
You track the last four dozen that hit and bet against them on a rolling basis.
2.
3.
3.
3.
2 L.
2 W.
2 W.
1 W.
1 W.
2 L.
1 W.
2 W.
1 L.
1 W.
3 W.
1 W.
1 L.
2 W.
1 W.
3 W.
2 W.
2 L.
1 L.
1 W.
2 L.
1 W.
1 L.
2 W.
3 W.
3 W.
1 L.
3 W.
3 L.
1 W.
2 W.
2 W.
1 W.
2 W.
1 W.
1 W.
2 W.
2 L.
3 W.
2 W.
3 W.
2 L.
3 L.
1 W
3 L
1 W
1 W
1
1
2
2
1
2
I want to play and have a reason standing next to the wheel starring at it.
Then i been thinking about this method.
But a 4 step marty would be to agressive for my taste, so i was thinking to use one skip and flat betting the first two bets and raise the last one.
I want to play as much i can and lose as little i can during that time standing next to the wheel starring at it and collecting data.
1:1
1:1
2:2
That way i win with my first bet and accept loses with my secound and last bet.
The idea is that first bet and secound bet will hovering around break even territorium.
As first wins one unit and the secound lose one unit.
WWWWLWWWWWWLWW
Code Select
2.
3.
3.
3.
2 L.
2 W. +1
2 W.
1 W.
1 W.
2 L.
1 W. +2
2 W.
1 L.
1 W. +3
3 W.
1 W.
1 L.
2 W. +4
1 W.
3 W.
2 W.
2 L.
1 L. +2
1 W. +3
2 L.
1 W. +4
1 L.
2 W. +5
3 W.
3 W.
1 L.
3 W. +6
3 L.
1 W. +7
2 W.
2 W.
1 W.
2 W.
1 W.
1 W.
2 W.
2 L.
3 W. +8
2 W.
3 W.
2 L.
3 L. +6
1 W +7
3 L
1 W +8
1 W
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
#28
General Discussion / Even money bets above 50% strike ratio
January 06, 2015, 10:32:57 AMI did not think this could be done - but i use a wheel signature with a bias and random algorithm and i strike above 50% at all times.
Sure there will be varaince and fluctation, but this is the best i ever seen with a 50/50 bet situation.
This method play numbers with physical parameters.
WWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWLWLLWLWWWWWWLW
#29
Gambling Philosophy / Playing one number - RWD with RX code
December 04, 2014, 06:02:05 PM
Here is the code for RWD (playing one number) ...
Quotesystem "Roy Ward Dickson Type Roulette Hot Number Strategy v1"
{
*************************************
* Testing RWD types *
* on the VIP Lounge *
*************************************
Rx-ed by St0rm0r
-------------------------------------
00-c0mpatible
-------------------------------------
Bet on a number if it:
a) appears 3 times within 20 (or 19) spins after not appearing for 30 spins or more
and...
b) the difference in the gap between the 1st & 2nd (A) and
the 2nd & 3rd appearances(B) is 6 spins or less
unless...
c) the number has appeared 3 times in succession.
Options:
Appear within X spins (19 or 20 spins)
Bet selection:
A or B <= 6
(A-B) <= 6
A and B <= 6
(A+B)/2 <= 6
Bet for X spins (9 or 5)
Progressions:
flat bet
9,9,9,10,10,10,12,12,12
1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2
profit on next spin
-------------------------------------
}
method "main"
begin
// section 1: do this once
while starting new session
begin
call "init"
exit
end
// section 2: do the tracking
add 100% net record"profit"data
if record"profit"data > 0
begin
put 0 record"profit"data
end
track last number for 1 time record"last N"layout
call "update hit frequencies"
call "update ready for qualification"
call "update appearances"
// section 3: act on a loss
if net < 0
begin
if record"P"data = 2 or record"P"data = 3
begin
add 1 record"pro"data index
if record"pro"data index > record"pro"data count
begin
put 1 record"pro"data index
end
end
end
// section 4:act on a win
if net > 0
begin
if record"P"data = 2 or record"P"data = 3
begin
put 1 record"pro"data index
end
put 1 record"numbers"layout index
loop until record"numbers"layout = record"last N"layout
begin
add 1 record"numbers"layout index
end
put 100% record"numbers"layout index in
record"1st appearance counter"data index
put 100% record"numbers"layout index in
record"2nd appearance"data index
put 100% record"numbers"layout index in
record"3rd appearance"data index
put 100% record"numbers"layout index in
record"start qualification"data index
put 100% record"numbers"layout index in
record"bet"data index
call "no go"
end
//section 5: bet
if record"P"data = 1
begin
put 1 record"pro"data
end
if record"P"data = 4
begin
call "calculate bet"
end
put 1 record"bet"data index
loop until record"bet"data index > record"bet"data count
begin
put 100% record"bet"data index record"numbers"layout index
if record"bet"data > 0
begin
put 100% record"pro"data record"numbers"layout
add 1 record"bet"data
if record"bet"data > record"Y"data
begin
put 1 record"pro"data index
put 100% record"bet"data index in
record"1st appearance counter"data index
put 100% record"bet"data index in
record"2nd appearance"data index
put 100% record"bet"data index in
record"3rd appearance"data index
put 100% record"bet"data index in
record"start qualification"data index
call "no go"
end
end
add 1 record"bet"data index
end
end
// subroutines
method "init"
begin
group
begin
display "RWD Type Test"
display "---------------------------"
display "after not appearing for 30 spins or more"
input data "a number appears 3 times within X spins e.g.19 or 20:"
record"X"data
input dropdown "Bet selection: a number qualifies if
1:= A or B <= 6
2:= (A-B) <= 6
3:= A and B <= 6
4:= (A+B)/2 <= 6" record"selection"data
input data "Bet for Y spins (e.g. 9):" record"Y"data
input dropdown "Progression:
1:= flat bet
2:= 9,9,9,10,10,10,12,12,12
3:= 1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2
4:= profit on next spin" record"P"data
end
if record"P"data = 2
begin
set list [9,9,9,10,10,10,12,12,12] record"pro"data
end
if record"P"data = 3
begin
set list [1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2] record"pro"data
end
put 1 record"pro"data index
copy list [number 00, number 0, number 1, number 2, number 3,number 4,number 5,
number 6,number 7,number 8,number 9,number 10,number 11,number 12,number 13,
number 14,number 15,number 16,number 17,number 18,number 19,number 20,
number 21,number 22,number 23,number 24,number 25,number 26,number 27,
number 28,number 29,number 30,number 31,number 32,number 33,number 34,
number 35,number 36] to record"numbers"layout
set list [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0] record"not hit since"data
set list [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0] record"start qualification"data
set list [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0] record"1st appearance counter"data
set list [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0] record"2nd appearance"data
set list [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0] record"3rd appearance"data
set list [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,
0,0,0,0,0] record"bet"data
call "reset"
end
method "reset"
begin
set flag "qualified" false
end
method "update hit frequencies"
begin
put 1 record"numbers"layout index
loop until record"numbers"layout index > record"numbers"layout count
begin
put 100% record"numbers"layout index record"not hit since"data index
if record"numbers"layout = record"last N"layout
begin
put 0 record"not hit since"data
end
else
begin
add 1 record"not hit since"data
end
add 1 record"numbers"layout index
end
end
method "update ready for qualification"
begin
put 1 record"not hit since"data index
loop until record"not hit since"data index > record"not hit since"data count
begin
put 100% record"not hit since"data index in
record"start qualification"data index
if record"not hit since"data = 30
begin
put 1 record"start qualification"data
end
add 1 record"not hit since"data index
end
end
method "update appearances"
begin
put 1 record"start qualification"data index
loop until record"start qualification"data index >
record"start qualification"data count
begin
put 100% record"start qualification"data index in
record"1st appearance counter"data index
put 100% record"start qualification"data index in
record"2nd appearance"data index
put 100% record"start qualification"data index in
record"3rd appearance"data index
put 100% record"start qualification"data index in
record"numbers"layout index
put 100% record"start qualification"data index in
record"bet"data index
if record"start qualification"data = 1
begin
if record"numbers"layout = record"last N"layout
begin
if record"1st appearance counter"data = 0
begin
add 1 record"1st appearance counter"data
end
else
begin
if record"2nd appearance"data = 0
begin
put 100% record"1st appearance counter"data in
record"2nd appearance"data
add 1 record"1st appearance counter"data
end
else
begin
if record"3rd appearance"data = 0
begin
put 100% record"1st appearance counter"data in
record"3rd appearance"data
add 1 record"1st appearance counter"data
//check if qualified,
put 100% record"3rd appearance"data record"diff"data
subtract 100% record"2nd appearance"data from
record"diff"data
if record"selection"data = 1
begin
if record"2nd appearance"data < 7 or
record"diff"data < 7
begin
if record"2nd appearance"data > 1 or
record"diff"data > 1
begin
//bet
put 1 record"bet"data
//act
put 2 record"start qualification"data
end
end
else
begin
call "no go"
end
end
if record"selection"data = 2
begin
if record"2nd appearance"data > record"diff"data
begin
put 100% record"2nd appearance"data in record"temp"data
subtract 100% record"diff"data record"temp"data
end
else
begin
put 100% record"diff"data in record"temp"data
subtract 100% record"2nd appearance"data record"temp"data
end
if record"temp"data < 7
begin
if record"2nd appearance"data > 1 or
record"diff"data > 1
begin
//bet
put 1 record"bet"data
//act
put 2 record"start qualification"data
end
end
else
begin
call "no go"
end
end
if record"selection"data = 3
begin
if record"2nd appearance"data < 7 and
record"diff"data < 7
begin
if record"2nd appearance"data > 1 or
record"diff"data > 1
begin
//bet
put 1 record"bet"data
//act
put 2 record"start qualification"data
end
end
else
begin
call "no go"
end
end
if record"selection"data = 4
begin
put 100% record"2nd appearance"data in record"temp"data
add 100% record"diff"data record"temp"data
divide by 2 on record"temp"data
if record"temp"data < 7
begin
if record"2nd appearance"data > 1 or
record"diff"data > 1
begin
//bet
put 1 record"bet"data
//act
put 2 record"start qualification"data
end
end
else
begin
call "no go"
end
end
end
end
end
end
else
begin
if record"1st appearance counter"data > 0
begin
add 1 record"1st appearance counter"data
if record"1st appearance counter"data > record"X"data
begin
call "no go"
end
end
end
end
add 1 record"start qualification"data index
end
end
method "no go"
begin
put 0 record"start qualification"data
put 0 record"1st appearance counter"data
put 0 record"2nd appearance"data
put 0 record"3rd appearance"data
put 0 record"bet"data
end
method "calculate bet"
begin
//determine amount of numbers to play
put 0 record"amount of numbers active"data
put 1 record"bet"data index
loop until record"bet"data index > record"bet"data count
begin
if record"bet"data > 0
begin
add 1 record"amount of numbers active"data
end
add 1 record"bet"data index
end
//calculate bet
put 100% record"profit"data record"count"data
put 0 record"pro"data
loop until record"count"data > 0
begin
subtract 100% record"amount of numbers active"data record"count"data
add 36 record"count"data
add 1 record"pro"data
end
end
#30
General Discussion / This is how a bet selection can look like using a positive progression.
November 21, 2014, 06:15:55 PM
This is how the LW-Registry can look like when you use a positive progression.
WL
WL
LWL
WWL
WL
LWWL
WWWWWWWL
WL
WWWWWL
WWWL
WWWWWWWWWWL
LWWWWL
WWL
WL
LLL
WL
WL
WL
WWWWL
WWL
LLWWL
LWL
WWWWWL
LLWWL
LLWL
LWL
WWL
WL
LWWWWWWL
LWL
LLWL
WL
WL
LWL
WWWWL
WL
WL
WL
LLWWL
LWL
LLL
WWL
LLWL
WL
LLL
WWWL
WL
WL
LWL
WWL
WL
LWWL
WWWWWWWL
WL
WWWWWL
WWWL
WWWWWWWWWWL
LWWWWL
WWL
WL
LLL
WL
WL
WL
WWWWL
WWL
LLWWL
LWL
WWWWWL
LLWWL
LLWL
LWL
WWL
WL
LWWWWWWL
LWL
LLWL
WL
WL
LWL
WWWWL
WL
WL
WL
LLWWL
LWL
LLL
WWL
LLWL
WL
LLL
WWWL
#31
Gambling Philosophy / The Truth, The Whole Truth, and Nothing But The Truth
November 02, 2014, 10:51:33 AM
TOPIC 1
This is deep and advance gambling theory about bet selections based upon math and probability.
It does not get any better then this.
Every thing i write in this topic is based upon experiments.
I start with one mehtod based upon Marigny de Grilleau.
The method is based upon singles contra larger series.
This mean that you have a benchmark or a window of events that reach a big imbalance of singles.
Then your expectation is that larger series will start to show after that.
The window of events (singles) should reach 3.0 STD.
After that you wait for triggers or indications before you attack for larger series.
The french word for STD is Ecart
First you have to get the Absolute Ecart when you calculate.
So lets assume you have an sequence with 14 series alternating with two singles present.
Then you take 14 - 2 = 12
Now we want to get the statistical ecart so we continue with...
14 + 2 = 16
Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4
And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the sqr
12 sqr 4 = 3,00
The Statistical Ecart 3,00
- - - - - - - - - -
This is the values for singles contra series:
Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
And so it continues
Lets for example say you have 14 singles and alot of series of two and no series of three or any larger series present.
Then when the first series of three show, then the imblance stop to grow.
That is not a trigger or indication that we getting regression twoards the mean.
The only thing that happen is that the imbalance stop to grow, after that the imbalance could continue to grow stronger.
So if we would have bet then we would have been chasing for regression.
If we get more singles and series of three, then we have a bumpy ride where the balance and imbalance alternating.
So that is also no trigger or indication for a bet.
But i am not sure if we should avoid this kind of wave, we could bet on it and win, even if we don't strike larger series.
But if we get a series of four, then we get more then a stop growing as i mention above.
Then we have a tiny regression towards the mean, that is a indication and a trigger.
Because then the regression has started to show and are present.
But that should only be valid if you measuring a window of 3.0 STD (having a window with overrepresented events).
This means i can back track the random flow and see how it behave based upon this playing model.
This without measuring a window of 3.0 STD.
This means we let the random flow unfold like a flower and show us the truth of balance and imbalance and strikes.
I just put a win for each series of three that show and more wins for all the larger series that show.
That way i can see how common or not common strikes is using this playing model based upon math and proabability.
I can see how ofthen i get tiny, medium or large windows of imbalance.
I can see how ofthen i get tiny, medium or large strikes.
I can see how chaotic the random flow is, the true nature.
So the only thing left is to see what kind of indication some one would chose.
If you want to catch tiny strikes you might need to chasing for events.
If you want to catch medium or large strikes you might need a window of 3.0 STD.
I don't have the solution for that.
Lets take a look at the random flow and see how it unfold...
Here you can see how common there is with tiny, medium and large strikes:
WL
WWL
WL
WL
WWWWL
WWL
WL
WWWWWL
WL
WWWL
WL
WWWWWL
WL
WL
WWL
WWL
WL
WWL
WL
WL
WWL
WL
WWWL
WWL
WL
WL
WWL
WL
WL
WWWWL
WL
WWL
WWWWL
WL
WWWL
WWL
WWWWWL
WWL
WWL
WWL
WWWL
WL
So next time you read that Asian players at the baccarat table always follow a trend and not bet against it.
Then now you understand the playing model to catch larger series and can make your own observations base upon strikes.
Cheers
This is deep and advance gambling theory about bet selections based upon math and probability.
It does not get any better then this.
- The Truth, The Whole Truth, and Nothing But The Truth -
Every thing i write in this topic is based upon experiments.
I start with one mehtod based upon Marigny de Grilleau.
The method is based upon singles contra larger series.
This mean that you have a benchmark or a window of events that reach a big imbalance of singles.
Then your expectation is that larger series will start to show after that.
The window of events (singles) should reach 3.0 STD.
After that you wait for triggers or indications before you attack for larger series.
The french word for STD is Ecart
First you have to get the Absolute Ecart when you calculate.
So lets assume you have an sequence with 14 series alternating with two singles present.
Then you take 14 - 2 = 12
Now we want to get the statistical ecart so we continue with...
14 + 2 = 16
Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4
And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the sqr
12 sqr 4 = 3,00
The Statistical Ecart 3,00
- - - - - - - - - -
This is the values for singles contra series:
Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
And so it continues
Lets for example say you have 14 singles and alot of series of two and no series of three or any larger series present.
Then when the first series of three show, then the imblance stop to grow.
That is not a trigger or indication that we getting regression twoards the mean.
The only thing that happen is that the imbalance stop to grow, after that the imbalance could continue to grow stronger.
So if we would have bet then we would have been chasing for regression.
If we get more singles and series of three, then we have a bumpy ride where the balance and imbalance alternating.
So that is also no trigger or indication for a bet.
But i am not sure if we should avoid this kind of wave, we could bet on it and win, even if we don't strike larger series.
But if we get a series of four, then we get more then a stop growing as i mention above.
Then we have a tiny regression towards the mean, that is a indication and a trigger.
Because then the regression has started to show and are present.
But that should only be valid if you measuring a window of 3.0 STD (having a window with overrepresented events).
This means i can back track the random flow and see how it behave based upon this playing model.
This without measuring a window of 3.0 STD.
This means we let the random flow unfold like a flower and show us the truth of balance and imbalance and strikes.
I just put a win for each series of three that show and more wins for all the larger series that show.
That way i can see how common or not common strikes is using this playing model based upon math and proabability.
I can see how ofthen i get tiny, medium or large windows of imbalance.
I can see how ofthen i get tiny, medium or large strikes.
I can see how chaotic the random flow is, the true nature.
So the only thing left is to see what kind of indication some one would chose.
If you want to catch tiny strikes you might need to chasing for events.
If you want to catch medium or large strikes you might need a window of 3.0 STD.
I don't have the solution for that.
Lets take a look at the random flow and see how it unfold...
Here you can see how common there is with tiny, medium and large strikes:
WL
WWL
WL
WL
WWWWL
WWL
WL
WWWWWL
WL
WWWL
WL
WWWWWL
WL
WL
WWL
WWL
WL
WWL
WL
WL
WWL
WL
WWWL
WWL
WL
WL
WWL
WL
WL
WWWWL
WL
WWL
WWWWL
WL
WWWL
WWL
WWWWWL
WWL
WWL
WWL
WWWL
WL
So next time you read that Asian players at the baccarat table always follow a trend and not bet against it.
Then now you understand the playing model to catch larger series and can make your own observations base upon strikes.
Cheers
#32
Gambling Philosophy / Strikes
September 27, 2014, 07:32:30 PMHow do you catch strikes?
Is a very good question as we have flat betting and positive progressions.
I have never seen any one write about a bet selection that catch strikes.
Why is that?
#33
Gambling Philosophy / Abstract experiment.
August 01, 2014, 04:37:42 PM
Abstract experiment:
I was thinking about how you could change the probability using the even money bets.
My line of thinking was about roulette and dozen play, because it seems that two dozen always dominate and i wanted to change that into even money bets with the same probability.
I start testing and come up with three states or three clustering sequences with no other possibility.
Then i reckon does has to have the same probability as dozen play.
What i know from the past about dozen play is that 1 dozen can sleep for 32 times in a row and that 2 dozen can hit 32 times in a row.
I also notice that is very common that 2 dozen hit 34567 times in a row on regular basis.
Should also mention that one dozen hit 12 to 13 times in a row during 1 million trails.
So this is the benchmark we dealing with.
So in a nutshell i wanted to capture this phenomenon using the even money bets.
But the staking is not the same and the payouts is not the same, but the probability is the same.
Lets say i follow one state to repeat with even money bets, then i get +1 unit.
But if i follow one dozen to repeat with one dozen play bet, then i get +2 units.
Now both has the same probability being 1 in 3 and give me 33% to hit a repeat.
Now lets assume we lose our first bet, then we have two states that show or two dozen.
Lets say we will cover them betting:
Then i need to bet twice to cover the last two states that show with even money bet.
This mean i will break even with +0 if i get one of them states to show or i will get -1 unit (almost break even).
Here above i have 66% to hit or break or almost break even.
But if i lose then all three states show and i will be down -3 units.
If it was dozen and one of the two last dozen show again i would break even +0.
Also 66% probability.
If i would lose, then i would be down -3 units.
That is how it is different.
I was thinking about how you could change the probability using the even money bets.
My line of thinking was about roulette and dozen play, because it seems that two dozen always dominate and i wanted to change that into even money bets with the same probability.
I start testing and come up with three states or three clustering sequences with no other possibility.
Then i reckon does has to have the same probability as dozen play.
What i know from the past about dozen play is that 1 dozen can sleep for 32 times in a row and that 2 dozen can hit 32 times in a row.
I also notice that is very common that 2 dozen hit 34567 times in a row on regular basis.
Should also mention that one dozen hit 12 to 13 times in a row during 1 million trails.
So this is the benchmark we dealing with.
So in a nutshell i wanted to capture this phenomenon using the even money bets.
But the staking is not the same and the payouts is not the same, but the probability is the same.
Lets say i follow one state to repeat with even money bets, then i get +1 unit.
But if i follow one dozen to repeat with one dozen play bet, then i get +2 units.
Now both has the same probability being 1 in 3 and give me 33% to hit a repeat.
Now lets assume we lose our first bet, then we have two states that show or two dozen.
Lets say we will cover them betting:
Then i need to bet twice to cover the last two states that show with even money bet.
This mean i will break even with +0 if i get one of them states to show or i will get -1 unit (almost break even).
Here above i have 66% to hit or break or almost break even.
But if i lose then all three states show and i will be down -3 units.
If it was dozen and one of the two last dozen show again i would break even +0.
Also 66% probability.
If i would lose, then i would be down -3 units.
That is how it is different.
#34
Off-topic / Thieves get their behind kicked by MMA expert ... at a gas station ...
July 29, 2014, 03:59:11 PM #36
Gambling Philosophy / The Truth @Turner - Regression towards the mean
June 21, 2014, 07:54:18 PMI crack the random flow.
I come up with a solution where the random flow has to show you the truth.
No bet selections or triggers.
With this solution you can observe how regression towards the mean unfold with out any fuzzy explanation.
Read this twice:
Regression toward the mean simply says that, following an extreme random event, the next random event is likely to be less extreme. In no sense does the future event "compensate for" or "even out" the previous event, though this is assumed in the gambler's fallacy (and variant law of averages). Similarly, the law of large numbers states that in the long term, the average will tend towards the expected value, but makes no statement about individual trials. For example, following a run of 10 heads on a flip of a fair coin (a rare, extreme event), regression to the mean states that the next run of heads will likely be less than 10, while the law of large numbers states that in the long term, this event will likely average out, and the average fraction of heads will tend to 1/2. By contrast, the gambler's fallacy incorrectly assumes that the coin is now "due" for a run of tails, to balance out.
What does this means:
This means i can pick any random combination of 10 events and compare them with the next 10 random events.
The expectation should be that they will not be the same combination and there will be present change.
So i can use opposite and same to see if this is the truth.
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
- - -
2 2 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 1 O
- - -
1 2 S
2 1 S
2 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
- - -
2 1 O
1 2 O
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 1 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
- - -
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
2 1 O
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O
1 1 S
1 1 S
1 1 S
- - -
2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
2 1 O
2 1 O
2 1 O
- - -
2 2 S
1 2 O
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
1 2 O
1 2 O
1 2 O
- - -
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 1 O
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 1 O
1 1 S
2 1 O
- - -
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
1 1 S
2 2 S
- - -
What is the solution:
Lets assume you would use Ecart play and see windows of 3.0 STD as rare and extreme event.
Then for example 14 events vs 2 events is 3.0 STD.
That is a total of 16 events.
Then you can for example pick windows of 8 random trails following by 8 random trails and see regression towards the mean unfold.
Then when you get 2 events vs 3 events then the 3 events make the STD grow stronger and the 2 events is part of the regression toward the mean.
Now you can see what happens each time a window not grow stronger and hit 3.0 STD.
You do nothing then just observe the regression towards the mean.
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
- - -
2 S
2 S
1 O
1 O
1 S
1 S L
1 S L
1 S L 3.0 STD
- - -
2 S
2 S
1 S
2 O
1 S
2 O
2 O W 2.5 STD
1 S
- - -
2 S
1 O
1 S
1 O
1 S
1 O W 2.0 STD
1 O
1 S
- - -
1 O
1 S
1 S
2 O
2 O
1 S W 1.80 STD
2 O
1 S
- - -
2 O
1 S
2 O
2 S
2 S
2 O W 2.5 STD
2 S
1 S
- - -
2 S
1 S
1 O
1 O
2 S
1 O W 1.5 STD
1 O
2 O
- - -
2 S
2 O
1 S
1 S
1 O
1 S L
1 S L
1 O W 2.5 STD
- - -
2 S
1 O
2 O
2 O
1 S
1 S W 2.5 STD
2 O
2 O
- - -
2 S
1 S
2 S
2 S
2 O
1 S
1 O
1 O W 2.5 STD
- - -
3.0 STD No regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.0 STD Small regression
1.8 STD Medium regression
2.5 STD Small regression
1.5 STD Large regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.5 STD Small regression
2.5 STD Small regression
Development and experimenting:
8 random trails following by 8 random trails is only one example and can be any number.
You can pick what ever you think is extreme and rare event.
Comparing with this method then following is true.
Indication for regression event is the underrepresented events.
Indication for the STD to grow is the overrepresented events.
So if you for example see one red and two black, then red will part of future regression as the underrepresented event and they can come in any combination
So if you for example see two red and three black, then red will be part of future regression as the underrepresented event and they can come in any combination.
Window and probability:
You can pick smaller windows around 2.5 STD or larger window up to 6.0 STD.
10 reds has the same probability as 10 in any combination, that is why you can pick any events with any combination with any length using the random flow comparing random against random.
The March
You have to develop a march if you are going to attack several times for regression.
#37
Methods' results / Sputniks own private XXVVs WF3 testing.
February 15, 2014, 05:26:15 PMI notice that others think they can run simulations non-stop and show results.
It will fail like all other methods, my opinion.
There will always be Good days, Average days and Bad days.
To handle the variation and keep away from the deep hole, we need MM and rules.
I am talking about Entering points and Exit points, when to attack and when to quit.
One Average day that would result in loses overall end up with positive expectation.
One Bad day that would result in catastrophic scenario end up with a small tiny loss.
That is my point.
You can not get away with fuzzy and sloppy attitude.
You see a winning strike jump on board and try you luck or you losing then stop, but when is that.
I don't give much for guess work.
I will post my results and ideas at this topic.
If you want to follow you are more then welcome.
Cheers
#38
General Discussion / Two methods playing one number only ...
February 10, 2014, 02:43:24 PMFist method RWD
Roy Ward Dickson said a playable hot number is...
a. One that has not come up for at least thirty consecutive spins. ie. 30 spins or more never less.
b. One that after such an "establishing period of absence" finally came up.
c. And which did so twice more during the next 19 spins or less, subject to the special exceptions below.
That is three shows in 20 spins or less after an absence of 30 spins or more.
SPECIAL EXCEPTIONS.
A number is NOT playable if it comes up three times in a row.
A number is NOT playable if the DIFFERENCE in the 'gap' between the first-and-second appearance and the 'gap' between the second-and-third appearances consists of more than six.
Say the qualifying numbers' initial two shows were on the first and seventh spins, that is a 'gap' of 6 and the third qualifying show came up on the 19th spin, that is a 'gap' of 12 spins, then the DIFFERENCE in the 'gaps' of 6 & 12 = 6. The number is playable!
Again, suppose the initial two shows are on the first and third spins, that is a 'gap' of 2 and the third show is on the twelveth spin, that is a 'gap' of 9, so the DIFFERENCE in the'gaps' of 2 & 9 = 7. The number is unplayable!
Another example, suppose the initial two shows are on the first and tenth spins, that is a 'gap' of 9 and the third show is on the twentieth spin, that is a 'gap' of 10, so the DIFFERENCE in the'gaps' of 9 & 10 = 1. Playable!
BETTING STRATEGY.
Back a playable qualifying number for UP TO 9 spins NOT counting spins where zero shows.
Of course zero itself can qualify to be playable.
Bet one unit on the first to the sixth playable spin and two units on the seventh to the ninth playable spin.
If the string of nine bets all fail to achieve a win stop betting that number immediately.
Stop backing that number immediately a bet wins, that is the hot number shows for the fourth time.
As soon as one such playable hot number bet has won stop that playing session at that wheel, even if it was your first bet. No more bets that day at that wheel.
Should three successive playable strings each of nine bets all lose stop that playing session at that wheel.
If you have lost two strings of nine bets and are playing a third when a second number qualifies as playable DON'T commence betting on it. Either you win your currently active string and walk or you walk away after losing three consecutive strings of nine anyway.
Second method median and skips ...
Skip Streak System by Apache:
First I want tell I build this system using Ion Saliu concepts :
Skip, Streak, and Median Value.
Example :
Roulette Number: 6
Hits -> 24 times
Skips -> 51 43 104 1 2 29 37 77 79 15 130 15 12 7 11 131 11 129 8 16 20 14 21 12
* Sorted Skips: 1 2 7 8 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 16 20 21 29 37 43 51 77 79 104 129 130 131
* Median Skip: 16
So number 6 hit 24 times.
The first row - called Skips - show ( to the right to left) the skips of number 6. Number 6 show. After 12 spins, show again, after 21 spins show again, after 14 spins number 6 show again etc. The last three skips of number 6 are 104, 43, 51.
The second row - called - Sorted Skips show all the skips for a particular number in ascending order.
The three row called - Median Skip - show the median value of the sorted skips. The median is the middle value of a string of numbers. In this example the median value of skips is 16.
It should not be confused with the average.
So the Median Value is the middle value in a string of values.
Therefore 50% of the values are within the median or less, and 50% are within the median or more. In my example of number 6, the skip median is 16. That mean that 50% of the time number 6 hits within a skip of 16 or less.
Now if in the string of skips of number 6 I mark :
with sign (+) I mark if the skip is greater than median value of skips
with sign (-) I mark if the skip is small than median value of skips
with sign (=) I mark if the skip is equal with median value of skips
I obtain this :
Code:
51 43 104 1 2 29 37 77 79 15 130 15 12 7 11 131 11 129 8 16 20 14 21 12
+ + + - - + + + + - + - - - - + - - - = - - - -
1. THE STRATEGY :
We bet on the numbers which have a 3 consecutive streak of skips greater than the median value of skips. ( That mean three consecutive + )
In our example number 6 is qualified because the last three skips ( consecutive ) are 104, 43, 51. We have + + + ( three consecutive value of skips, greater than median value of skips. 16
(104 > 16) (43 > 16) (51 > 16)
St0rm0r, is possible to code this system with this options : ?
1.Bet on numbers with encounter 3 consecutive signs +
2.Bet on numbers with encounter 4 consecutive signs + (tight bettors)
3.Bet on numbers until hit.
4.Bet on numbers for 37 spins
5.Bet on numbers for a number of spins equal with the median value of skips. ( In this example we bet number 6 for 16 spins)
Money managament : Flat bet.
Thank you in advance.
P.S. I use this strategy with success in Bookmakers Lottery. (The Irish, German, Spanish,49s lotteryes where I can bet one number )
#39
Even chance / Classical method with a new twist ...
February 02, 2014, 05:27:59 PMThis is a old classical method and i find a new twist to it, i post it at the end of topic.
Here is a old one, a reel classical for the even chances.
The principal of tracking is 1/3. You write down the result in lines of 3.
The bet selection is to catch series of 4. There is 2 patterns that we are going to use.
The first pattern: RBR BRB - this pattern alternate for 3 times and we will play that they will continue to do so for 4 times.
So this is how it would look - if we playing to catch series of 4 from the patterns that have alternating for 3 times:
The second pattern RRR BBB a serie of 3 and we will play that they continue to become 4 in a row.
So this is how it would look - if we playing to catch series of 4 from the patterns that is a serie of 3:
Now lets take a look at it whit a reel permanence, a short sample... First we are going to see how it perform using the first pattern only - RBR and BRB...
BRR
RRR
BRR
BRB
RBR W
BBB
BBR
BBB
BRB
BRR L
RBB
BBB
RBR
BRB W
RBR W
BBR W
BRR
RRR
BBR
BRB
BBB L
BRB
BRR L
RBR
RBB L
BBR
RRR
RBR
RRR L
RRR
RBB
RRB
BBB
BBR
BRR
RBR
BBB W
BRR
RBB
BBR
BRR
BRR
RBR
RRR L
RBB
RBB
BBB
BBB
BRB
RRR W
RRB
RRR
RBR
BRB W
RRB
BBR
RRR
BBB
RBR
BBR W
RBB
BBB
BRR
BRB
RBR W
Lets take a short example of the second pattern RRR and BBB...
BRR
RRR
BRR L
BRB
RBR
BBB
BBR W
BBB
BRB W
BRR
RBB
BBB
RBR L
BRB
RBR
BBR
BRR
RRR
BBR L
BRB
BBB
BRB W
BRR
RBR
RBB
BBR
RRR
RBR W
RRR
RRR W
RBB W
RRB
BBB
BBR W
BRR
RBR
BBB
BRR W
RBB
BBR
BRR
BRR
RBR
RRR
RBB W
RBB
BBB
BBB W
BRB
RRR
RRB W
RRR
RBR W
BRB
RRB
BBR
RRR
BBB L
RBR
BBR
RBB
Now we are going to use bout and see what happens...
BRR
RRR
BRR L
BRB
RBR w
BBB
BBR W
BBB
BRB W
BRR L
RBB
BBB
RBR L
BRB W
RBR
BBR W
BRR
RRR
BBR L
BRB
BBB L
BRB W
BRR
RBR
RBB L
BBR
RRR
RBR W
RRR L
RRR W
RBB W
RRB
BBB
BBR W
BRR
RBR
BBB W
BRR W
RBB
BBR
BRR
BRR
RBR
RRR L
RBB W
RBB
BBB
BBB W
BRB
RRR W
RRB W
RRR
RBR W
BRB W
RRB
BBR
RRR
BBB L
RBR
BBR W
RBB
BBB
BRR W
BRB
RBR W
RBR
RBR L
BBB
RBB L
RRR
BRR L
RBR
BRB W
RRB
BBR
RRB
RBR
BRB W
RBB
RRR
BBR L
BRB
BBR L
RRR
RBR W
BBB
RBB L
RRB
RBB
RRR
RBR W
BBB
RBB L
RBR
RBR L
BBR
RBB
BBB
BBR W
RRR
RBB W
BBR
RRB
This approach above described how to catch small trends,
series of 4,
I run a short test because I was curios how it would perform if we don't use the principal of 1/3.
I use a humble progression 1 1 3 4 7 ...
Here is the result using a 5 step progression:
Here is the result for 2048 RNGs
#40
General Discussion / Any takers for this challenge
January 31, 2014, 11:53:41 AM #41
General Discussion / The first time you played roulette - how was it ...
January 08, 2014, 06:03:10 PMI play roulette around 20 years ago.
Then we did not have international casino, we had restaurants and pub's with roulette.
You could only play with 0.2 or 0.5 chips as maximum.
So if you had to use some kind of progression you had to take advantage of the layout and cover more bets.
My first method was playing against one dozen to show six times in a row.
So if dozen 1 hit and could place 2 and 3 up to five times using the layout.
I once won all chips the dealer had at the table, then later on i lose it all back.
Cheers
#42
Gambling Philosophy / Different way towards the regression towards the mean.
December 20, 2013, 02:40:21 PMNow assume that one red is one event and have the value of 1.
Also black is one event and have the value of 1.
Then 14 reds and two blacks is 3.0 STD or 14 blacks and two reds are 3.0 STD.
Assume the random flow comes in waves of STD.
Small, middle and large STD waves.
Now to the twist.
I can pick 8 random trails and match or miss-match them with the future 8 random bits.
If i get 14 matches and 2 miss-matches i would have 3.0 STD.
So when i pick the random bits and compare so will one side get ahead with 3 miss-matches or matches.
Then i play opposite as its the underrepresented regression towards the mean.
To prevent getting 14/2 events or window of 3.0 STD ...
The bets is 3 to 4 attempts depending on how the random bits unfold.
Quote
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
2 S 2
2 O 1
2 0 1
2 S 2
1 O 2
2 O 1 L
2 S 2 W
1 0 2
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
1 S 1
1 O 2
1 S 1
1 S 1
1 O 2 W
1 S 1
1 O 2
2 O 1
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1 O 2
1 S 1
2 S 2
1 S 1
2 O 1 W
2 O 1
2 S 2
2 S 2
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1 S 1
2 O 2
1 O 2
2 O 1
1 S 1 W
1 O 2
1 O 2
2 O 1
#43
General Discussion / AMK this is the extreme
December 09, 2013, 02:52:17 PMWe all know the principal of 1/3 where we clustering patterns into three outcomes / groups.
I come up with an idea how to cover all possibilities that not all 8 patterns / combinations will have a show.
That is a sequence of 24 trails.
Now i will try to explain how it is done.
First we will start with out colors and just look at the formations.
There is 4 existing formations.
XXX
XOX
XXO
OXX
Now no matter what formation show first i bet same will repeat with one single bet.
XXX
X
Here i would bet X next
Or if we hade following formation
XOX
X
I would bet O next
If no win then i get two different formations
XOX
XXO
Then next bet, the second bet would be betting that one of does two formations would repeat.
Then you wait to see what formation will match before you make one single bet.
If the formation starts with XO then you would bet for XOX
It the formation starts with XX then you would bet for XXO
Lets say we lose and get three unique formations.
XOX
XXO
XOO
Now you have only one formation left if not one of does previous three will repeat.
And we have only placed two single bets.
So now XX or XO will be dominating formation and with this example above it is two formation that start with XO.
So next bet would be for a change XO, the third bet.
XOX
XXO
XOO
X
Lets say will lose
XOX
XXO
XOO
XX
Then we would place our last bet that XXO would show.
This is a total of four single bets.
Now we lose them all and all 4 formation show.
XOX
XXO
XOO
XXX
Now if you do this with colors you bet as follows.
If the first color is Red then you bet first there will be black.
If not you then follow the march i describe above.
So that is a total of 7 single bets.
If you would lose you would get all 4 formation with the same color.
RRR
RRB
RBR
RBB
Next would be playing Red as not black would show following the same march as i describe.
Does would be 8 single bets and a total of 15 single bets to cover the 24 trails or that all 8 patterns would have a show.
RRR
RRB
RBR
RBB
BBB
BRB
BBR
BRR
#44
General Discussion / Sunday again ... This-N-That
December 08, 2013, 03:45:39 PM
Hello ...
Sunday again and i don't have much to say today.
Will mention do, that the small signs that indicate that a post is new at this forum board is a little bit irritating, flashing ...
Then also that it has been to much about Kimo Li this week.
I don't have anything against his methodology,,,I just think for do who search solution among his work should join his forum.
It seems no one is expert about his work.
My 2 cents.
Cheers
Sunday again and i don't have much to say today.
Will mention do, that the small signs that indicate that a post is new at this forum board is a little bit irritating, flashing ...
Then also that it has been to much about Kimo Li this week.
I don't have anything against his methodology,,,I just think for do who search solution among his work should join his forum.
It seems no one is expert about his work.
My 2 cents.
Cheers
#45
General Discussion / Cycling on a rolling basis ...
December 06, 2013, 05:28:16 PMCycling on rolling basis ...
The random flow as we know it or the distribution does not come in perfect order.
Most of the time the flow comes in disorder or erratic flow.
Look at this simplicity or example.
1)
,,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,''',,,
2)
,,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,'',,''
This above is typical of perfect symmetric order.
Erratic flow looks like this and are the most common one.
3)
,,''''',','',,,'',',,,'',,'''',,,',',','',,',',,,'',,,,,,'',',,,,,',',,''''',','',','',',,,'',,,',',,',,'
This is why i think cycling principles are superior toward any other in the short term.
Cycling on a rolling basis.
#46
Gambling Library / The key to the final solution - Marigny de Grilleau - By Sten Nordland
November 26, 2013, 11:56:52 AMThe key to the final solution - Marigny de Grilleau
Is a book from a Swedish author (Sten Nordland) and the main titel of the book is International Roulette.
Its two books.
Part two is exclusive about basics and advance new development about Marigny de Grilleau's work.
I will write about this to become a reference area for cut point methodology or also known as regression towards the mean.
This will based upon my understanding about the subject.
#48
Actuals/Hands / Where can i download actuals from real casino ...
November 21, 2013, 11:03:27 PMI forgot where i can download actuals from real casino ....
If you have a link ,,, many thanks ...
Cheers
#49
Straight-up / Have you test the last 5 and 6 numbers
November 21, 2013, 07:23:59 AMOne thing i can't get out of my head is that if you pick the last 6 numbers with no repeat, then you get one repeat with the next 6 numbers.
Also work with 5 numbers and the next 5 number window.
You track the numbers on a rolling basis where each window is 5 or 6 numbers.
+ sign is when you hit a repeat within next window of numbers.
- sign is when you miss a repeat within the next window of numbers.
+ + - + - + - + + + + - + - + - + + - + + + - - + - + - + + + - + - + +
Is there any way to take advantage out of this clustering appearances of repeats.
#50
Methods' results / Hit & Run
November 14, 2013, 08:26:24 AMStrike domination from the very first outcome to continue or else i aim to break even.
This is the results for 10 sessions.
This is using a kind of regression strategy.
Won 59.5 units and lose 30 units.
[reveal]
-
21.0
-3.0
-
8.0
-3.0
-
4.0
-3.0
-
0.5
-3.0
-
8.5
-3.0
-
5.5
-3.0
-
2.0
-3.0
-
0.0
-3.0
-
3.0
-3.0
-
7.0
-3.0
-
I like this kind of method, as domination or strikes compensate for the negative expectation.
And i also like that you get a second chance to break even before you hit the hole.
+0.5
+0.5
+2.0
+0.0
+0.5
+2.0
+0.5
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.5
+6.5
+0.5
+0.5
+3.5
+0.5
+2.0
+0.5
+0.5
-3.0
- - -
+0.0
+0.0
+2.0
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+2.0
+0.0
+0.5
+2.0
+0.0
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
+2.0
+2.0
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
+0.5
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
+3.5
+2.0
+0.0
+2.0
+0.5
+0.0
+0.0
+0.5
-3.0
- - -
+0.0
+3.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
-3.0
- - -
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
-3.0
- - -
+2.0
+0.5
+0.5
+0.0
-3.0
- - -
+0.0
+0.5
+2.0
+0.0
+0.5
+0.0
+0.0
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+0.0
+0.0
+0.5
+0.5
+2.0
-3.0
[/reveal]