Regression towards the mean.

I write this topic for my self and if you are interested, then you are more then welcome to contribute.
I been thinking about the STD and how you measuring things.

So one red is one event and one black is one event.
This mean i can measuring red and black using math.
I can measuring balance and imbalance.

This means i can also measuring loses and winnings in the same way.
Where one loss is one event and one win is one event.

And if we take the law of series, then one singles is one event and one series is one event.
50/50 situation as there is as many singles as there is series.

Different benchmark and different variance.

The bell curve has no limit as nothing is due to happen, but the bell curve tend to change after reaching 3.0 STD.
There is three main states to talk about and observe.
One is that the imbalance can continue to grow stronger or it can hovering around zero state or getting weaker.
The two last states is what you hope to catch after a strong imbalance, hovering state and opposite draw-downs.

But you can create your own state and benchmark with regression towards the mean.
A wave of overrepresented events can be 1.5 STD and you look for tendency of change and playing that the waves will change before reaching 3.0 STD, but only if there is present change that indicate hovering state or draw-downs.
They come in tiny, medium and large states.

You lower you set the imbalance of overrepresented events you more action you will get and in the same time higher variance.
With other words a more bumpy ride.

Mapping or clustering patterns.

Bayes have made software that match and miss-match patterns to get winning and losing sequences.
Where each winning and losing mark is one event and you can act upon that information.

Drazen once mention if i remember it correct 28 loses and 2 wins.
That is 4.74 STD.

But the beauty of the animal is that you would never place any bets during your observations as there is no tendency for present change.
Hovering state or draw-downs.

This made me thinking, so i come up with my own clustering march of the random flow where i set my own benchmark for regression towards the mean.
I pick a more bumpy ride.

The benefit of this methodology.

That is when imbalance grow stronger, you do nothing, so in that way you are never chasing for the opposite to show.
You just observe the flow grow until you get your indications of correction.
They come in tiny, medium and large states.

This is the true meaning with tendency play or you could also name it trending, but not based upon guessing.
This methodology is based upon probability and math.

 
Again i test a new approach with flat betting and regression.
Are plus after 50 hit and run sessions.

WON 53.5 UNITS
LOSS 19 UNITS

[reveal= Results Here>]
+2.5
+1
+1
-11
+2.5
+3.0
+1
+1
+2.5
+0

---

-1
+1
+1
+2.5
+1
-1
-1
-1
+2.5
+0
---

+2.5
+1
+1
-3
+2.5
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0

---

+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
-1
+2.5
+1
---

+0
+0
+4
+1
+1
+3
+1
+1
+2.5
+1
---[/reveal]

This is what i hate about it.
First it should not be possible and it has to be positive fluctuation in my favor.
So for how long and how many sessions can you flat betting, before negative expectation show its ugly face.

I just for fun tested the Fool Proof Progression and find it amazing how much you can win, really big wins.
On a win you increase one unit and on a loss you increase one unit, simple as that.

I just took my average even money bet to see how it perform:

W 1 +1
W 2 +3
W 3 +6
L 4 +2
L 5 -3
W 6 +3
W 7 +10
W 8 +18
W 9 +27
L 10 +17
W 11 +28
W 12 +40
W 13 +53
W 14 +67

I think Brett Mortons - Money Management Strategy - would do just fine with this Fool Proof Progression.
I will create a LW-Registry chart with loses and winnings to see when you are in the positive area and the negative area, also to pin point out where the crucial draw-downs occur.

Get back soon ...

Cheers

 

I am developing a even money bet where you break even or win 10% ...
I have not yet decide loss limit.

I could never forget this picture that describe the hit ratio you should expect when you aim for a small win goal or break even.
All this is flat betting.



+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+1
-0.5
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+0
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0

Here above can you see -0.5 that means we break even but during the game we hit zero with La Partage Rule.
A direct win is +1.

The methodology is using red and black as they come, but with 1 in 3 probability.
If you win +1 you end the game.
If you end up +0 you end the game.
If you end up -1 you continue to play until you break even (here we should find a loss limit value)

Largest draw-down during this test was -4 units.
The main idea is following two dozen out of three for domination.
Will continue this later.

Three bets and you are out of the action ...

This is not a losing or winning system, this is a test placing only three bets to catch a trend.
Players have told me that you only place three bets and if you don't catch a trend you quit.
I was thinking this was crazy ... in the beginning.

But now i understand that we have to avoid chasing loses and keep things short, keep loses short, losing less.
For me it has been a fight in my mind to solve this philosophic with just placing three bets to catch a trend.
The common thing in the past has been one big progression and all in.

Three loses just not only make sense when it comes to keep loses short and small.
It also make sense if you aim to win two session out of three as your overall strategy.

Now i wanted to test one even money trend and see how many positive entering points i would get placing only three bets and how many negative exit points i would get placing only three bets.

The positive tram is overwhelming.

+ catch a trend within three bets
- losing three bets trying to catch a trend

300 trails

24 times you catch a trend with three bets
2 times you lose three bets trying to catch a trend

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

Now the question is how many times can i reach 20% win goal with does positive entering points.

I just play around with 6 lines ,,, same as a dice with six sides ,,,
We all know that at least one side sleep ,,,

I change it into EC observation ...
First you list what singles and series that hit until you have one left ...
Then that event will sleep just like using the lines or a dice ...

Here some one could bet all five events or just three events around the sleeping one ...
The last option would give you 2 in 3 odds playing dozen position ...

Example 13254 events show and 6 is at sleep.
We bet 45 and 7

LWLWW LLL

Example 21645 events show and 3 is at sleep.
We bet 12 and 4

WWWLWWLLWWLLWWWWWWLWWWLWW LLL

Example 12435 events show and 6 is at sleep.
We bet 45 and 7

WLWWW

 
This is for Texas Holdem and very good way to learn how to play poker against the computer.
Make you own setting and so on ...

Free open source software for Windows and Linux ...
So if you like me want to learn and master more games, then this is for you ...

I start to read poker books and aim to play cash games in my local casino.
http://www.pokerth.net/

I got angry that there is a method with the name 122 ...
It implement that you accept a small lose on your last bet and a total of -5 units ...

Is just that i could not find any bet working where +1 overcome -5 on regular basis ...
And it also is one of the slowest EC method i know ...

This is the best i can come up with using the 122 method ....

72 Sessions 64 Won 24 Loss

So why did i test this, well John Patrick wrote that you increase your staking plan after some success ...
Up as you go mentality with 122 method ...

50 Session 122
75 Session 244
100 Session 366
200 Session 5 10 10
400 Session 10 20 20
1000 Session 25 50 50

No way i say to my self, but now i am ahead with 40 session and only 10 left to reach the 50 benchmark using the 122 method.
I could never do it betting after two reds or two blacks, i use other more complex algorithm, but it should not matter and be the same thing.
We all know the saying that all selection is the same.

If any one is interested in this i tell you how and we can test TRNGs together, i pick one month and you another, that way we can see what kind of benchmark we could reach ...

31/8

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

30/8

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

29/8

-5
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

28/8

-5
+1
+1
-1
-1
+1
+1
+1

27/8

+1
+1
-5
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1

26/8

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

25/8

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

24/8

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

23/8

+1
+1
+1
+1
-5
+1
+1
+1

 
I am convinced that is exist some selection that is better then others ...

This is simple, i test the 122 method betting after two reds and after two blacks, it sucks and you can not get ahead ...
Same with betting after three reds and after three blacks.

But then i convert the red and blacks into 1 in 3 probability selections and i get ahead playing 122 method ...
Is late and i will hit the bed, but this is how it looks like:

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1
-5
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

Cheers

 
This is the facts ...

You have a bet selection and one progression with a total of 92 units.

Now one table and one way is to play this method staking 2 Euro as minimum bet size ,,, that with 92 units give us a total of 184 Euro bank.
One other table and one other way is to play 4 Euro as minimum bet size ,,, that with 92 units give us a total of 368 Euro bank.
One other table and one other way is to play 10 Euro minimum bet size ,,, that with 92 units give us a total of 920 Euro bank.

Regression method

Do start with the largest bank with win target and move to smaller bank when i operate with casino money.

Increase after a loss

If i lose my smallest bank i move up one step using a larger bankroll and win back the previous loses.

Using both regression and increase

Now lest assume i use middle size bankroll and after win targets i use regression and play with smaller bank operating with casino money.
If a loss i take a bigger size bankroll to break even and start over with middle bank ,,,

 
I got this from ND with JP Style ...
Regression method capitalize on every win made ,,, as it use regression and it also capitalize on all zig zag sequence ,,, it also capitalize on domination with up and pull ...
Flat betting bet same amount at all times.

This is how i do my testing ,,, i play one session with Regression UP&PULL ,,, then i replay same session flat betting to see the difference ,,, amazing results ...

 
Guetting progression ...

This is for numbers ...
First you bet 1 unit and if you win twice you make a higher bet that is 1,5 for next level ...
But if minimum bet is 2 Euro you can not divide and do that ...

Lets assume i play even money bets using high and low.
Then i can put one minimum bet of 10 Euro on high and cover the high lines with three 2 Euro bets and getting a bet that is 1.6 units ...
So with even money bets you can play the original Guetting Progression ...

So my question is how you do it with numbers.
Do i start with higher unit value, like 2 units as one unit bet and where 3 units become 1.5 and 4 units a 2 unit bet and 6 a 4 unit bet ...

Cheers

 
I been making short test playing one number ...
I takes time, but seems to be hard to lose all you money, i test it flat betting ...

-5
-12
+30
+34
+26
+18
-2

The reason i look into this option is that i want to collect large amount of data, but not just starring at the wheel, also want to play in the same time with out risking to much and still winning
g some ...
What is your favorite method playing one number only ?

You told me that you get high strike ratio with method i send to you ...
Look at this method, same as i send to you but using three as clustering pattern.

Play with win goal and stop loss ...
Negative expectation is six loses in a row, same as having one dice with four sides repeating it self four times in a row ...

But first repeat of four possibilities determine witch side we play against and as long there is not repeat we just having winnings flat betting.

Short sample from todays random org file ...

O = OPPISITE
S = SAME

1
1
2
2 O
2 L
2 W   LW
2 S
2 L
1 W   LWLW
2 S
1 W   LWLWW
1 S
1 W   LWLWWW
2 O
2 L
1 W   LWLWWWLW
1 O
2 W   LWLWWWLWW
1 S
1 L
1 W   LWLWWWLWWLW
1 S
2 W   LWLWWWLWWLWW
2 O
1 W   LWLWWWLWWLWWW
2 S
1 W   LWLWWWLWWLWWWW
1 S
1 W   LWLWWWLWWLWWWWW
1 S
2 W   LWLWWWLWWLWWWWWW
2 O
2 L
1 L   LWLWWWLWWLWWWWWWLL
2 S
1 W   LWLWWWLWWLWWWWWWLLW
2 O
2 W   LWLWWWLWWLWWWWWWLLWW
1
1
2
1
2

And they say all selection is same.
Well i have one outcome that i match with the first outcome of my previous three.
If same then the same pattern is due to happen as the first trail show indication of that, it has already begun.
Then i have a better chance betting for present change as i have 3 against 1.
Same if the trail match opposite, then the opposite pattern begun to match, so i play same with 3 to 1, putting my money on present change.
And with each bet i reduce the variance with one bet less and only play twice with my clever trigger.
And as if there is a repeat we have saved two bets and only have six left for one full cycle with one side repeating four times, that would equal eight bets, but with my trigger its reduced to six.

XXX
OXX
XXO
XOX

 
I only make sport betting online using bet fair, but now i will soon order my first bot and make money when i sleep, but can not make up my mind what kind of method to use ...
Now i wondering if you are allow to spin the RNG wheel with out placing any bets ? in fun mode you are not allow to spin wheel with out placing bets ,,, that why i ask ...

Cheers

Marigny style and the math values behind the events.
Smaller series contra larger series.

This is for better understanding about STD and probability, bell curve movement or reading random flow into current states, devision.

1. Series of two has the value of 1
2. Series of three has the value of 0
3. Series of four has the value of 1
4. Series of five has the value of 2
5. Series of six has the value of 3
6. Series of seven has the value of 4
7. And so it continues

Here is an simple chart that I did a long time ago with some values that you can use as reference.



John Patrick style ... pick one dominant, one side of the distribution and stick to it.
See the random flow with two opposite colors as two roads with there own random flow of current states.
Good MM and three banks should do it.

I post the hint above and you develop your own killer method.

Thanks to GLC = George ...

This is a system that developed while I was tweaking the "Very near infallible Roulette system".  That system is way too complicated and almost impossible to play except at home with pen and paper and time.


This is an Even Chance system.


We will use the R/B even chance.


Wait until you have 2 colors in a row.  Either RR or BB.


We then bet for a change of color.  We will bet at most 6 times for the change.  If it doesn't change in 6 bets, wait until it does change to resume betting.


We are going to use a progression that is based on the "Philiberte" system found in the Monte Carlo Anecdotes.  Atlanta's progression in his latest excellent system "Matrix Trendgrabber" was also used.  It's not exact but close.


1-2-4


1-3-6


2-4-8


2-6-12


3-6-12


3-9-18


4-8-16


4-12-24


5-10-20


5-15-30


7-14-28


7-21-42


9-18-36


9-27-54


12-24-48


12-36-72


15-30-60


15-45-90


We will follow A's rules in that we stay at the same level as long as we don't lose 3 times in a row.  After each win, we return to the lowest number in the level and start again.  If we lose 3 times in a row, we move to the next level and play the same way.  Even though these numbers if added together equal a large number of units, not to worry because we will be winning as we move up the progression thus keeping our drawdowns under control.


Getting back to playing rules, as long as we are winning 1 time out of 3 betting for 2 colors in a row to change, we will stay at the 1st level.  After each win, we will wait until we have another 2 of the same color to resume betting for a chop.  If we get 6 losses in a row it will mean that the same color has hit 8 times in a row.  This will happen from time to time.


As long as we are in the 1st level, we will be in the profit accumulation mode.  In profit accumulation mode, we only bet for 2 in a row to change.  Once it changes, we wait again for 2 in a row before resuming betting for the chop.


If we lose 3 in a row at the 1st level, we will be down 7 units and will immediately move to the 2nd level of 1-3-6 and we are now in the recovery mode.  We will continue betting for a change.  When we get a change we will start betting for the chops to continue.  This is the difference between profit accumulation mode and recovery mode.


If we are in profit accumulation mode, we only bet for a streak to chop.


If we are in recovery mode, we bet for streaks to end and for chops to continue.  Our progression continues according to the betting rules no matter what mode we are in and even as we move from 1 mode to the next.


Once we are at a new level, we stay at that level until we fully recover our losses and then we drop back to level 1 and wait until we have 2 in a row to begin betting for a chop.


Here's a short example:


R   No bet
B   No bet
B   No bet but 2 in a row so bet 1 for chop
R   Win +1 in profits  Now wait for 2 in a row
B   No bet
R   No bet
R   No bet but 2 in a row so bet 1 for chop
R   Lose, bet 2 for chop
R   Lose, bet 4 for chop
B   Win +1 so (+1+1=+2) wait for 2 in a row
B   Bet 1 for chop
B   Bet 2 for chop
B   Bet 4 for chop
B   Lost 3 in a row so we are -7 and enter recovery mode and also move to the 1-3-6 level.
B   Lost 1 bet 3 for chop
R   Win +2 -7 = -5 since we are in recovery mode we start betting on chops to continue so we now bet 1 in the 2nd level of 1-3-6
B   Win +1-5 = -4  bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Lost -1-4=-5  Bet 3 for streak to chop
R   Win +3-5=-2  Bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Win +1-2=-1  Bet 1 for chops to continue
R   Win +1-1=0  We have recovered all losses, not we are back to profit accumulation mode waiting for 2 in a row to form so we can bet for it to chop and we are also back to 1st level of 1-2-4.  We are still +2 overall.  No bet yet.
B   No bet
R   No bet
R   Bet 1 for chop
B   Win +1+2=+3  No bet.  Wait for streak to form
B   Bet 1 for chop
R   Win +1+3=+4  No bet.  Still in profit accumulation mode.  Wait for streak of 2
R   Bet 1 for chop
R   Lose, bet 2 for chop
R   Lose, bet 4 for chop
B   Win  +1+4=+5 No bet.  Still in profit mode.  wait for streak
B   Streak has formed bet 1 for chop
B   lose, bet 2 for chop
B   Lose, bet 4 for chop
B   Lose, -7 go to recovery mode and level 2.  continue betting for streak to end.  Bet 1 unit, the 1st bet of level 1
B   Lose, -8 Bet bet 3 for streak to end
R   Win  +3-8=-5  bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Win  +1-5=-4  bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Lose   bet 3 for streak to end
B   Lose   bet 6 for streak to end
R   Win +3-4=-1  bet 1 for chops to continue
B   Win +1-1=0  Reset to profit accumulation mode and drop to 1st bet level.


Seems to be solid as a rock.  So far!


Thanks to GLC/George at Roulette cc ...
Cheers

Current state property.
Is random window selections with overrepresented events.
Withe swans.

The black swan is the negative expectation.
I know its shape and will describe it.

Playing model:
Singles contra larger series.
Larger series contra singles.

Example, we can select window selection of singles and series of two hitting 2, 3 to 4 STD.
We can use raw calculation in head to estimate the strength with our current state property, window selection, the random property flow.d will describe it.

So if i have 12 singles and two series of three, then i have 2.5 STD
Then if i have 6 singles and one series of three i have around 1.2 STD

All we need is the common benchmark to estimate the value.
Then we can set rules for how small or large we will allow our selections to be.
As in 16 events up to 25 or even 50 events.

Now other bench mark is 3.0 STD that equals 14 singles and two series of three.
You just make up a chart with common values and divide.

The values is:

Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
Series of seven has the value of 5
And so it continues ...

Example, i see series of 3,4,5,6,7 to chop with one or two singles, then i have hit 2.5 or 3.0 STD.
Then i know tiny, small, middle, large property states with singles and series of two will show.

Example, i see singles and series of two to chop with one or two series, then i have hit 2.5 or 3.0 STD.
Then i know tiny, small, middle, large property states with larger series will show.

Example, i see both does two current property states, then the values cancel each other out hovering at zero point, one option is to define that as erratic random balance, or chaotic property state where there is no existing imbalance.

This way you can read the random flow, distribution like a open book.
We know that there is three current property states.

We can get imbalance towards two directions based upon this playing model.
And we can hovering around the mean or we can see the current property state as erratic random flow that behave chaotic.

This is the withe swans.
We can understand them as events and current property states, window of selections.

We need to define length and strength of the current property state we will measuring.
For that we have STD.
So that explains the math.

Now to the probability aspect and the black swan, the negative expectation.
First i will just say this is trending on the highest existing level.

When you have a current property state hitting for example 3.0 STD during 16 to 30 events.
Then you have isolated the window selection around 25 to 50 trails.
For example with singles and series of two.

Now the bell curve has no limit and it can continue to grow or fall back to back.
But that is not the black swan or any issue, as we would not play.

We would only aim to play when there is an existing change, tendency towards tiny, small, middle, large correction, present change.
We know that with this example, that does will come for the next 20 40 100 150 trails/events.

Is like having a crustal ball that say you know what is coming, but you don't know when.
So we wait until they do.
Then we hit.

Now the black swan is as follows.
If you get tendency in perfect order with out any existing imbalance after a current property state with overrepresented events.

This means that if we throw a dice six times (one cycle) and each side would show once in numerical order.
123456

As the march or algorithm is develop to catch the underrepresented events.
So are they mechanical tools with limitation.

One march is that you wait for one larger series to show.
Then you attack after series of two show, up to three times.
That is one attack sequence.

The existing algorithms and marches are effective.
As the probability is on your side and does underrepresented events chops with out coming in numerical order.

I can base my even money bets upon almost conditional probability with odds in my favour.
When i play 18 numbers, i don't face a situation where the odds is 18/18.
My situation is at 99% of all times 18/12.

Then if i lose i want to break even and have the following conditional odds in my favour 24/6.
That is pretty cool.

That is how you get 55 60 65 % hit ratio.

This is as close you can get towards reading the stock market movements using the even money bets, with a touch of Markow Chains.

The principle is that you deal with three existing states, 1 in 3.

You can play regular strategy use a static selection.
You can play for trending for domination, following different movements.

1) State one is when series chop after each other.
There has to be at least two series that chop after each other to be a valid state.

RRRBBB
BBRRRBBBRR

2) State two is when series of singles chop after each other.
There has to be at least two singles that chop after each other to be a valid state.

RBR
BRBRBBBRBRBR

3) State three is when you get one serie and one single alternating after each other.
There has to be no repeats and the series and singles outcome has to alternating once each.

BBBRBBBBRBB
RRRRBRRBRRRBRRR

I will try to illustrate this, so it become clear as water.
I will use comparison with dozen play that also is 1 in 3.

Lets begin with that the three dozen alternating and have one show each, like 123.
Now using even money bets and the three states, then it will look like this:

R
R
R
B
B
B State one, two series chop.
R
B
B
B State three, series and singles alternating.
R
B
R
B State two, serie of singles.

This is one advance opportunity to explore for trending for domination.
As you already know so can two dozen hit 5 10 15 20 25 30 times in a row when one dozen is at sleep with no appearance.
Its the same with this three states using even money bets.
The distribution based upon this observation is the same as dozen, 1 in 3.
Other options can be using static selections playing against dozen/states repeats based upon a defined algorithm/march ...

Personally so do i like the idea trending for domination.
This is how it looks like when only two states hit and one state is at sleep.
Flat betting with this example.




Well this is just the introduction towards something that can become very advance and complex.
There is many different possibility's to explore how to trending for domination.
It also exist various ways developing a algorithm/march to follow.

Here is one example how it looks like when you use a algorithm/march as static selection.
Flat betting.




One main idea is to see how often you can hit a positive tram using a few bets.

Its about how many attempts we need to hit or jump on-board a trend/domination.
What is the entering and exit points.

Lets say i am just allow to make three bets and if i don't hit a winning bet i have to quit that session.
That way you keep loses small.

So i want to jump on-board a trend/domination sequence with three bets.
Then i want to see how the success or hit ratio looks like with does Entering and Exit points.

I use +1 as a positive indication hitting a trend/domination sequence.
+0 can be break even point and where you restart or it can be a opportunity to continue to aim for +1.
Example -3 can define the end of the cycle you betting to hit a trend/domination sequence and is the beginning of the big hole or the negative expectation (NE).

I like this set up of rules, it's a clean way to check Entering and Exit points.
This is how a sample can look like:

+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
-3 NE
+0
-3 NE
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
-3 NE
+0
-3 NE
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
-3 NE
+0
-3 NE
+1
+0

This way show that you can not get +1 unit to overcome that attempts doing so.
That is how simple the math & statistics is behind true flat betting.

It also show how, why and when you need to apply a humble progression or any other method to grind back does loses, when you hit (NE) negative expectation.
Or you just restart a new attack after three loses.

Optional is to test if domination/trending can compensate for the negative expectation.

Should also mention that +0 is the question if you will aim to break even or aim for +1 or -3.
That depends on your methodology, if you like to break even and restart or continue with current flow to win or fail.
Personally i regard break even as a win as you did not lose and still had a chance winning and you didn't lose trying.

So if i look at the opportunity to aim for and have a chance to catch a trend or domination, then the entering points using three attempts are overwhelming ...

+33 positive entering points
-6 negative expectation exit points

But if we see the units, based upon entering and exit alone, then its pretty even ...
So again my question is if trending and domination can compensate ?

+33
-27

There is variance toward this, less or more attempts depending on selection/cycle.
Break even methodology or continue until win or fail.

-
This is how i test the entering point towards domination, where two states hit frequently and one state is at sleep.

First i will illustrate this using dozen's.

If you have dozen 1 to hit then you follow dozen 1 to repeat.
If it fail you will have two dozen that show, for example dozen 1 and 2.
Then you play and follow dozen 1 and 2 for domination.
If it fail, then you have three alternating dozen's 123.

That is the entering point i test above using three states with even money distribution.

Lets say i have the alternating state RRRBRRR then after next change i would play for single.
RRRBRRRB now i want the current state to repeat and bet R.
Lets assume i lose and get two series to chop, then i have two current states, RRRBRRRBBB.
Now i would follow does two current state to continue after next change.


Differeint staking methodology.

I should mention that you can bet once for each event or you can bet for each trail.
Lets say i follow series to chop, then each serie is one event and i bet once for each event or for each trail.

Bet for each event.

R
R
B
B W Bet once
R
R W Bet once
R
B
B W Bet once

+3

Bet for each trail.

R
R W
B L
B W
R L
R W
R W
B L
B W

+2

There is other entering points and i will mention does as this topic grow.

The Van Keelen Test

Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.

Beside the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.

The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system, and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!

The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby  the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.

The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!
To check a system over 1000 spins, has no meaning!

This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.

With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.

Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):
A system indicates a genuine superiority:
1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of  more than 100 units was obtained!
2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
3. if after 100000 placed bets a result  better than - 1000 was obtained*[/size][/font]

-
As you know we can clustering the distribution to any kinds of states/patterns.
For example the principal of 1/3 give us 8 possibility's or states/patterns.
-
Now assume i can clustering the distribution into three states and there exist no other possibility's then does three states/patterns, then i have 1 in 3, just like the probability playing dozen's ...
-
And as you might understand i talk about even money bets.
Now to my question ...
-
If i have dozen one hitting once and i play dozen two and three, then i have 66% Chance to hit ...
Now then is also should apply to even money bets if i have the true probability of 1 in 3 and i face the same situation.
-
Let me illustrate this with some simple examples.
Assume i face this situation/sequence ...
-
RBBB this is one state, next i would bet that two series chop after each other or that i would get two singles in a row, that is the other two states.
I have the same situation.
RBBBRR or RBBBRBR
-
This three states follow the exact same distribution as dozen, no difference at all.
You can see with each sample of 300 how one state can sleep for 5 10 15 20 events in a row, just like dozen.
-
The issue do and the reason why i make this topic is the following.
When you play dozen you win placing one bet if you play against dozen one and if dozen two or three show.
-
But with even money bets you also place two chips but as two bets where you win or break even, covering the same probability area of 66% ...
That means you don't capitalize in the same way.
-
Then is the probability still the same for the secound bet as the first bet until they cancel out if does two other states will show or not, as in 66% ...
-
Cherrs

-
This is my opinion, that i find regression much better and solid then flat betting.
First you always keep a profit when you win and you capitalize when the distribution goes zig zag ... or hitting strikes ...
I would put it like this based upon my experience, regression puts you more into the positive side of things and flat betting more into the even.

Cheers

I been testing an idea and getting pretty good results and will apply it to real play.
-
What is your opinion about it.
I think it is a pretty solid methodology.
-
Lets say i play the even money bets, trending for domination.
Then i would like to hit a small win target and keep loses short.
-
Now i don't want to hit loss limit i want to break even if i find my self in the big hole ...
(negative expectation).
I want to have a way to identify when i am entering a negative tram, things is not going my way today.
-
My idea is ...
If i aim to win +3 units using regression plan, then i have my win goal.
Now lets say i am down -3 units and did not reach my +3 units win goal.
-
Then i can say to my self, this session tend to go against me, this is not my lucky day.
So if i aim to win i would have to reach +6 units as i am down -3 to win +3 and that is not realistic.
-
But if i in this situation aim to break even, then i face the same situation as in the beginning.
0 toward +3 is the same as -3 toward +0.
-
Is like having a second win goal in the reverse way or a second chance not to lose or hit loss limit.
-
This i think is pretty solid psychological factor when things not going our way to solve our situation at the table ...
-

Cheers

-
We all know that you can not win plus one unit on regular basis and that it overcome the attempts doing so !
The question is if trends and domination can compensate !
-
Attack three times to jump on board a trend or any kind of domination, the entering point ...
Win and continue or break even and restart or hit the negative expectation (NE) ...
-
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+1
+0
-
So if i look at the opportunity to aim for and have a chance to catch a trend or domination, then the entering points using three attempts are overwhelming ...
+33 positive entering points
-6 negative expectation exit points
-
But if we see the units, based upon entering and exit alone, then its pretty even ...
So again my question is if trending and domination can compensate ?

+33
-27

.
This is the test and rules ...
.
1) I bet twice at my first attack.
If i win i stop and are plus one unit, end of game.
If i lose my first bet, then i aim my second bet to break even.
.
2) Now if i don't succeed to win plus one unit or break even, then i am in the Big Hole (BH)
Then i will again try to break even, flat betting with the following MM ...
Daily Bankroll 200 Euro and Loss Limit 100 Euro ...
.
3) The test continues to place minimum 1000 placed ...