Quote from: Number Six on February 17, 2014, 05:33:00 PM
Can either of you guys tell me what the game duration is?

Sorry I have not read the method; there is so much fluff surrounding it now that I am not sure I could even find the answers I am looking for. I see XXVV mentioned earlier 60-90 spins for 3-5 games.

This bet selection has no logic at all. Xander was right when he said stuff like this has been tested to death. But lets not take any of it personally. It's just an observation. I would rather see some maths that backs up the premise of the bet, but I suspect it does not exist. I have done simulations of this, or similar, myself, and I can say from experience that WF3 will not hold up in the long run, nothing will help including money management and progressions.

I have created a book of simulated statistics that attempts to find out categorically whether hot numbers can be defined mathematically in some optimum criteria, and, thus, predicted i.e. is there any point in time where a number has a higher probability of hitting that the expectancy.

I can say that WF3 is pretty wide of the mark really, for the most simple reason that it's betting on old "hot" numbers, and so the definition is incorrect. This is just like taking a wild, random punt.

I have the solution.
I can tell what number is bias or hot and not due towards random fluctuation.
The method comes from discussion between Laurance Scott and Edward Thorp.
The down side is that i don't share or make that kind of information public.
But i have to say it feels good having a complete playing model in my library.
I have all simulations software with cor charts and explanation how to determine what is what.

Thanks Bayes for making that clear.

I will not continue with this as i getting bad results.
I don't understand how some one can get good results using WF3.

I apoliges for this, but WF3 does not work with random org ...

Here is the rules as i undertand them.
WF3

Bet on up to 3 numbers which have repeated.
A game terminates (start re-tracking) when either a number hits a third time (a win) or a 4th number repeats without any number having hit 3 times (a loss).

Incorporated VP (meaning virtual play), which means that if you've had no win after the 3rd repeat (a la WF3), play continues "virtually" until a number hits a 3rd time.

Now i will get back and test different version of WF3
All numbers will be from random org with data and size - so you can back track everything

 
Thanks 

 
Does it matter how many numbers that can appear between two repeats.
Do have any rules or limits.
Lets say you never bet more then 12 numbers.

I was just thinking about personal permanence.
If you rule out all windows with 13 numbers and above, then you just skip does.
Still you get your random flow with numbers and your personal permanence.

What you think ,,, any ideas  ...

Cheers

Quote




What I would be interested in though is a copy or reference to the classical
text you mention.

I can look tomorrow ,,, but i think it was that you see three repeats and follow that one and the last most present two repeats up to certain amount of spins or window.
And one other is that you follow the number that has three repeats and add numbers that has two repeats up to six numbers ...

Nothing strange just similar.

Adding.
I find the methods i was refering to and i wrote about them 2009 ...
Classical systems - Plein Part 1 & 2 ...

Quote from: lucky_strike on April 18, 2009, 08:00:05 PM
Here we wait for one number to repeat 3 times and it has to do so with in 36 spins.
When it appears you play that number at most 18 times straight up.
The numbers that shows up twice with in this 18 times you also play straight up until 18 times have been played.
[table=]
Spins, Numbers, Repeats, +/-
1, 1,,,
2, 10,,,
3, 30,,,
4, 14,,,
5, 32,,,
6, 19,,,
7, 0,,,
8, 5,,,
9, 4,,,
10, 31,,,
11, 12, 12,,
12, 30,,,
13, 13,,,
14, 1,,,
15, 35,,,
16, 12, 12,,
17, 5,,,
18, 24,,,
19, 12, 12,,
-,-,-,-,
1, 15,, -1
2, 24,, -2
3, 33, 33, -3
4, 33, 33, -4
5, 7,, -6
6, 26,, -8
7, 28,, -10
8, 0, 0, -12
9, 0, 0, -14
10, 27,, -16
11, 6,, -19
12, 2,, -22
13, 11,, -25
14, 33, 33, +10
15, 31,, +8
16, 12, 12, +43
17, 20,, +42
18, 30,, +41

[/t]

Part 2 ...

Quote from: lucky_strike on April 19, 2009, 07:05:33 AM
Here we track the numbers to find one number that has repeat 3 times with in 36 spins.
We play this number straight up and we continue to do so for 36 spins.
If it hit then we play this number again for 36 spins.
Now we also add new numbers.
We play the numbers that has show twice up to a total of 6 numbers with the number that has hit 3 times.
At most we will play 6 numbers straight up.
Old numbers falls out for new numbers that has hit twice so we play the 6 numbers that qualify last at all times.
The exception is the first number that we always follow until it not hit once more in 36 spins, see above.
Every time one number hit you play this number with  2 units then back to 1 unit.
Here below can you see a short illustration when 6 numbers show and some hit but ends up with one cycle.
[table=]
Spins, Numbers, Repeats, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, +/-
1, 11,,,,,,,,
2, 36,,,,,,,,
3, 6, 6,,,,,,,
4, 6, 6,,,,,,,
5, 14,,,,,,,,
6, 22,,,,,,,,
7, 2,,,,,,,,
8, 36,,,,,,,,
9, 8,,,,,,,,
10, 19,,,,,,,,
11, 14,,,,,,,,
12, 6, 6,,,,,,,,
-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,
1, 32,,,,,,,,
2, 5,,,,,,,,
3, 35, 35,,,,,,,
4, 26,,,,,,,,,
5, 28, 28,,,,,,,
6, 14,,,,,,,,
7, 31,,,,,,,,
8, 22,,,,,,,,
9, 28, 28,28,,,,,,
10, 33,,,,,,,, -1
11, 11, 11,,,,,,, -2
12, 35, 35, 28,35,,,,, -3
13, 13,,,,,,,, -5
14, 35, 35,28,35,,,,, +30
15, 10,,,,,,,, +28
16, 3,,,,,,,, +26
17, 20,,,,,,,, +24
18, 7, 7,,,,,,, +22
19, 7, 7, 28, 35, 7,,,, +20
20, 1,,,,,,,, +17
21, 11, 11, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +14
22, 8,,,,,,,, +10
23, 24,,,,,,,, +6
24, 7, 7, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +41
25, 7, 7, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +123
26, 29,,,,,,,, +119
27, 18, 18,,,,,,, +115
28, 19,,,,,,,, +111
29, 15,,,,,,,, +107
30, 35, 35, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +143
31, 7, 7, 28, 35, 7, 11,,, +178
32, 21, 21,,,,,,,+174
33, 18, 18, 28, 35, 7, 11, 18,, +170
34, 0,,,,,,,, +165
35, 21, 21, 28, 35, 7, 11, 18, 21, +160
36, 4,,,,,,,, +154

[/t]

You can verify this with Swedish member if you want.
The books are very expensiv, above 100 Euro each.
Is a book from a Swedish author (Sten Nordland) and the main titel of the book is International Roulette.
There is two books with the same name, part 1 & 2 ...

 
My first comparison.

My test/tweak.
2014 02 13
Window strikes: LLLWWWLLWLWWLW
Verdict: Average sample
Results:  32 units

WF3 Original with VP
2014 02 13
Window strikes: LLLWWLWWLLL
Verdict: Bad sample
Results: -56 units

First i notice that VP slow down the game and give no advantage.
The game and give less action and also less windows with strikes during 300 trails samples.
But futher testing might prove me wrong.

Quote from: Bayes on February 15, 2014, 07:00:24 PM

There's something missing here which is what I forgot to include in the first version of the program. If the stop loss kicks in (meaning a 4th number has repeated but no number has hit 3 times) then you play virtually until a number hits the 3rd time, then quit the session and start re-tracking.

I am not missing that part, i even mention it at another topic about the same subject.
I am just not sure if virtual play make any difference.

But i post 900 trails with my own rules to win with good days and average days and keep loses short at bad days.
I respect XXVV point of view and this strategy is not new.
Actually its based upon a old classical method that i have in one of my roulette books.
Not exactly the same, but very similar.

I still argue that there is good days at the tables and average days at the table and bad days at the tables.
Then simplicity does not cut it, we need to manage the waves of strikes.
We can not do that playing non-stop.

Maybe you argue here that virtual play is some kind of trigger that change things.
Well you can see my LW-Registry above and i will test same files with VP.
But i am pretty sure that if i play non-stop with VP i still will get into negative territories.
Mehtod like this needs skips or entering and exit points, some way to manage windows of strikes.

I base this on my own testing, where i get into negative territories if i play non-stop.
I lose if i don't apply entering points and exit points.
And i trust random org being as good as any existing live spins.

I apoliges for this XXVV but this is my humble opinion.

RULES TESTING

1)
The original WF3
Bet on up to 3 numbers which have repeated.
A game terminates (start re-tracking) when either a number hits a third time (a win) or a 4th number repeats without any number having hit 3 times (a loss).
2)
Entering point when one window loss and play until a win or three loses in a row.

First 900 trails from random org.

2014 02 15
Window strikes: LWWWWLWLWWWLWLWWW
Verdict: Good sample
Result: +109 units

2014 02 14
Window strikes: LLLWWLWLLLWLLWL
Verdict: Bad sample
Result: -19 units

2014 02 13
Window strikes: LLLWWWLLWLWWLW
Verdict: Average sample
Results: +32 units

TOTALS
+142
-19
= +122

 
Thanks XXVV

 
I notice that others think they can run simulations non-stop and show results.
It will fail like all other methods, my opinion.

There will always be Good days, Average days and Bad days.
To handle the variation and keep away from the deep hole, we need MM and rules.
I am talking about Entering points and Exit points, when to attack and when to quit.

One Average day that would result in loses overall end up with positive expectation.
One Bad day that would result in catastrophic scenario end up with a small tiny loss.

That is my point.
You can not get away with fuzzy and sloppy attitude.
You see a winning strike jump on board and try you luck or you losing then stop, but when is that.
I don't give much for guess work.

I will post my results and ideas at this topic.
If you want to follow you are more then welcome.

Cheers

 
With my thinking, then it could also mean a complete window with a win as starting point.
Some one might want to play only when there is winnings present.

I just feel its better to start after a complete window with result as entering points.
Then if you keep doing so in the same manner each time, then you create a solid personal permanence to follow.


Cheers

 
My point is ...
You can not go all in with out clear entering points and exit points.
Does will define how you will do with
bad days
good days
average days

Quote from: Blood Angel on February 15, 2014, 02:29:21 PM
There are clear entry and exit points, aren't there? Enter at first double, exit on a treble or when 4 doubles have appeared with no treble.

I don't know if the first double is part of a window with 123 repeats, that means you randomly jump on board.
If i wait until i have a window with one loss, then i start from scratch with a clear window to begin my personal permanency with.
Just one example that entering points and exist points is not so clear.
And when you get a window with 4 numbers with no third repeat, you have a window with no strike.
But that does not mean you quit playing, so that is not a clear exit point.

If i state i start after each losing window and attack, then i have a clear entering point.
And i start my personal permanence in the same manner each time.
Then when i hit three loses in a row i quit as my exit point, then i have a clear rule when to quit.

My abstract thinking about the subject and my opinion.
I might be right or wrong or just made a point about the subject.

With my example above a bad day with many loses result with -19 units.
And a good day with many winnings result with +109 units.

LLLWWLWLLLWLLWL "bad day"
LWWWWLWLWWWLWLWWW "good day"

Here is one more ...

LLLWWWLLWLWWLW "average day"

-15
-26
+23
-33
+28
+28
+27

-74
+106
= +32

Cheers

 
There should be clear entering points and exit points.
Entering points when to enter the game and attack.
Exit points when you want to end the game and keep a profit and keep loses short.

There has to be some kind of MM to keep you away from the deep hole.
When it appears you not following it and quit in time keeping loses short.

My opinion.

300 trails with good results with many winning strikes.
+11
+26
+34
+13
+25

= +109 units
300 trails with bad strikes and many loses.

-5
-25
+13
+30
-32
-31
+27
-26
+30

TOTALS

-119
+100

= -19 units