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Off topic ...
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This show how easy it is being ahead using a progression.
As John Patrick put it, 70% of all people who visit a casino are at some moment ahead, still 95% of does will go home as losers.
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This just show how important there is to have a methodology to follow and apply money management ...
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Cheers

 

Quote

So if i look at the opportunity to aim for and have a chance to catch a trend
or domination, then the entering points using three attempts are overwhelming
...
+33 positive entering points
-6 negative expectation exit points

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What is all this about ?
Well there has to exist some kind of methodology based upon trending and aim for domination ...
Then it should start out with basics, when and how do we entering as in entering points and when do we exit as in exit points ...
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What happen next is if we are going to skip the alternative progression, then when have exit point with negative expectation, then what ...
I like the idea that the loss limit of the exit point around 3 to 4 units become the next rung or win goal to break even ...
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This is what i think is a pretty valid method to deal with trends and domination !
What is left is how to play and what kind of strategy to use when you are in the last state, the negative expectations exit point and aim to breaking even ...
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The first idea that strike my mind is try to grind out/up toward even or hit loss limit.
Then what kind of amounts are we speaking of, session bankroll for the day and win goal and loss limit ...
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I would say 200 Euro session bankroll and aim for 20% or 40 Euro ...
Loss limit 100 Euro.
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This way if you win 20% fine and if you hit negative expectation win 20% fine (break even) and if not and you are in the big hole you end up with the loss limit.

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We all know that you can not win plus one unit on regular basis and that it overcome the attempts doing so !
The question is if trends and domination can compensate !
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Attack three times to jump on board a trend or any kind of domination, the entering point ...
Win and continue or break even and restart or hit the negative expectation (NE) ...
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+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
-3 NE
+0
-4 NE
+1
+0
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So if i look at the opportunity to aim for and have a chance to catch a trend or domination, then the entering points using three attempts are overwhelming ...
+33 positive entering points
-6 negative expectation exit points
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But if we see the units, based upon entering and exit alone, then its pretty even ...
So again my question is if trending and domination can compensate ?

+33
-27

Quote from: spike on March 19, 2013, 10:20:27 PM
Its hard to say which comes first, knowing when to bet
or when not to. that's the problem with progressions,
they give you a false sense of security. You feel like
your bets are protected, and they're not.

It even happens to me. If I play a progression for fun
in practice, I can feel my attention relax, I don't have
to concentrate so much, the progression will cover
my mistakes. A very bad frame of mind to play in..

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Yes that is true, if you follow the trend and use a regression plan, you are more alert towards what is present ...
Make sense that you relax and become more sloppy when you use progression ...
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Quote from: spike on March 05, 2013, 01:38:02 AM
Why in god's name would you ever want to play THROUGH
the bad states? ? If you can read random correctly, you
see the bad states and sit it out or move to another wheel.
Playing through them is a sure road to ruin. If you don't know
when NOT to bet, you shouldn't be playing.

I just had to quote you on that and i fully agree ...
I might use those words as my own ...

Cheers

Quote from: Razor on March 19, 2013, 01:26:08 PM
I agree with Ralph.


""" still there is gamblers who keep regular profits ..."""

I don t agree

Its fine by me 

Quote from: Razor on March 19, 2013, 11:24:25 AM
In order to say that something is working, it mustn t have the part "sometimes it doesn t work"
If it s working it can t lose...

If it can lose, then it s not working.

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All system lose, still there is gamblers who keep regular profits ...
There is no such thing that a system can not lose ...

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So how does the progression look like ...

QuoteThe other is at BV and I play only RED,

Nice, so how do you play only red ?
You see one red and jump on board or do have any other selection when you only play red ...
I could red that John Patrick speak of this method to pick a dominant ...

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I like the idea that the negative expectation or the beginning towards the big hole, is becoming you third attempt or 20% win goal ...
Kind of a reverse way to define the win goal and when you have to face the negative expectation ...
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I base this idea upon the claim that most people should be ahead 70% of the time, it is a interesting statement from many different perspectives ...
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This also define how the hit and run strategy could behave based upon does rules i apply.
Like a (every day i will sting like a bee and run like a rabbit) and only fight when i am force to do so ...

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The first 20 sessions are intressting.
I only face the Big Hole once, negative expectation.
Total plus 13 units.
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+0
+1
+0
+0
-2 BH +0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1

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This is the test and rules ...
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1) I bet twice at my first attack.
If i win i stop and are plus one unit, end of game.
If i lose my first bet, then i aim my second bet to break even.
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2) Now if i don't succeed to win plus one unit or break even, then i am in the Big Hole (BH)
Then i will again try to break even, flat betting with the following MM ...
Daily Bankroll 200 Euro and Loss Limit 100 Euro ...
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3) The test continues to place minimum 1000 placed ...

 
Cool ND ...

QuoteObserving the game is a key Sam!

I like that phrase ...

 
I like the way he use does direct bets and end up +400