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Messages - Tomla

#196
Gambling Philosophy / Re: Fool Proof Progression
October 17, 2013, 07:35:16 PM
fool proof works until you hit a really bad run , then it's a bitch to get out of.. but it is in my top 7 progressions and i pull it out once in awhile
#197
I would love to see Albahalas stuff. I've heard that his very creative and innovative!!! I think now his moved away from roulette and is posting his World Famous Sports picks on his own widely read forum?
#198
Sports Betting Forum / Re: NHL
October 17, 2013, 03:14:04 PM
Still can't resist so I will play the Chicago Blackhawks tonight -140------Lets hope the Hawks put it in the net more than the Blues.
Best-o-Luck
viso gerio
#199
Gambling Philosophy / Re: The Pareto Principle
October 17, 2013, 03:05:16 PM
horses and sports I bet on a d'alembert  type principle---w horsies mostly 6-1 to 12 -1 ,,, $1 for a few days, $2 for a few, $3 for a few. Then one day babboom -babbing you hit 3 out of 5 races at 6-1 or better and clear out your losses plus make a profit--back down to $1!!!!!
#200
Gambling Philosophy / Re: The Pareto Principle
October 17, 2013, 02:19:28 PM
I without question agree with this theory..... It is as simple as trying to slide thru the bad moments till you hit your time and space of wins. The idea is not to get killed on the lulls.
#201
WEST COAST to EAST COAST

One trendy concept being used by the media is that NFL West Coast teams traveling eastsuffer declines in performance. It's certainly reasonable to hypothesize that the combination of long flights, strange beds and time zone changes confuse internal body clocks and prevent players and teams from performing up to expectations.[/font]
With this in mind, we used our testing to examine the theory of West Coast teams traveling east and find out just how truthful it is. To start, we had to first find a way to measure expected performance. Similar to our monday night analysis, we can't use straight up wins and losses since they don't provide a realistic measure of performance. For example, San Diego is traveling to Jacksonville this week as 7.5-point favorites. Since 2003, favorites of -7.5 and greater are 543-108 (83.4%) straight up, so concluding that a San Diego victory alone meant they met expectations would be incorrect.
Instead, we can use against the spread (ATS) records as a much better indicator. It's safe to assume that the favorite in each matchup is "expected" to be the better team and the actual size of the spread define "how much better" the favorite is expected to be. Therefore, we would define a 3-point Chargers victory as underperforming since they did not cover the spread. Conversely, a 10-point win would cover the 7.5-point spread, indicating that San Diego outperformed expectations and "played well" against Jacksonville.
With our measure of performance defined, we compiled ATS records for the four NFL teams located in the Pacific Time Zone (San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers and Seattle Seahawks) when traveling to play in the Mountain, Central and Eastern Time Zones.
The table below displays the results, since 2005:

GAME TIME ZONE
[/size][/font][/color]

ATS RECORD
[/size][/font][/color]

ATS WIN RATE
[/size][/font][/color]
Mountain
22-10
68.8%
Central
37-44
45.7%
Eastern
44-57
43.6%

Interestingly, ATS performance of Pacific Time Zone teams gets progressively worse as they travel further east. Based on these results, we can conclude that West Coast teams don't meet expectations and therefore "play badly" when traveling to the East Coast.
While we have achieved our original goal by confirming this concept, we decided to now look at this from a betting theory perspective in order to learn how to take advantage going forward. Using the analysis above as a baseline, we also tested other scenarios and found that Pacific Time Zone teams traveling east perform even worse after covering the spread in their previous game.
The table below displays ATS records for Pacific Time Zone teams, coming off an ATS victory in their most recent game, dating back to 2005:

GAME TIME ZONE
[/size][/font][/color]

ATS RECORD
[/size][/font][/color]

ATS WIN RATE
[/size][/font][/color]
Mountain
6-8
42.9%
Central
16-26
38.1%
Eastern
16-38
29.6%

For the record, this added wrinkle is not related to the teams' actual travel, but is instead a reflection of betting market overreaction. The betting public tends to focus on recent results and will back teams that covered the spread in their latest game. In turn, oddsmakers react by shading lines, forcing bettors who like these teams to take them at bad numbers.
Sharp bettors wait for these market overreactions and take advantage by betting against the Pacific Time Zone teams, knowing they only cover the spread at a rate of 29.6%.


Hope these Tips help you become a better Punter
TOMLA


#202
Sports Betting Forum / Re: BASEBALL--World Series
October 16, 2013, 08:40:07 PM
Thanks Big EZ!!! Your not from the New Orleans EZ area are ya? Loved Casino Gambling  in Biloxi a couple of weeks ago..Wow good prices , easy comps etc--Im going back soon
#203
Sports Betting Forum / Re: BASEBALL--World Series
October 16, 2013, 08:35:20 PM
Hoolika Moolika sports and gambling fans !!!! we got thru the 1'st inning with no runs scored!!!
That brings the record in sports to 4 wins 0 losses...... time for a pause






And who says that you can't win at gambling?
#204
Sports Betting Forum / BASEBALL--World Series
October 16, 2013, 04:40:36 PM
Back by nobodies demand but at the same time I can't resist....one more play in Baseball to show that Im well rounded and maybe some dutch sports bets in soccer in a few weeks. As a famous Dominican once said "Beisbol has been berry berry good to me"
Lets try to make the 3 and 0 record into 4 and 0 with some help from all of the popular Deities!
Tonight in the Los Angelos -St Louis series take NO RUNS in the first inning -138
Mucho Good wishes to all !!!
#205
Sports Betting Forum / Re: NHL
October 16, 2013, 02:16:13 AM
ok great Toronto wins 4-1, so after a 3-0 record in sports Im going to retire from posting for awhile as the process  distracts from my sports betting, casino gambling and testing, business, family etc....so good luck till next time...
have fun



#206
Sports Betting Forum / NHL
October 15, 2013, 06:25:09 PM
Hey NFL  worked out well with a 2 and 0 so lets try chasing  a little round black puck, the NHL ! Infamously, men with bright ugly uniforms do this on ice while wearing shoes with blades on them. Little does the world know that on Friday nights in Canada people at bars yell "it's Hockey night Canada"!!!!! They even get excited about this sport in the colder climates of europe--but with global warming next year we may be betting water polo.
To all of my Canuck friends lets try the Toronto Maple Leafs -150, a high Vig to pay and that's not my usual style, , it seems to be Albahalas style with many 3-1 favorites and higher , but to each his own.


Rationale: Minny really sucks on the road this year
Good Luck to all!!
#207
Sports Betting Forum / Re: NFL sunday
October 15, 2013, 04:09:19 AM
ok the main bet san diego won 19-9,, plenty of chances for the halftime hedger
gl
#208
Sports Betting Forum / Re: NFL sunday
October 15, 2013, 02:12:50 AM
At the half it's San Diego 10-6 if you want you can set up a middle by betting Indy in the second half minus .5 + 105
Gl
#209
Sports Betting Forum / Re: NFL sunday
October 14, 2013, 11:42:34 PM
Bonus pick.......in tonights MNF ---I would play the san diego chargers at pick em -110...it's a line movement play with 69% of the public on Indy and the line moves towards San diego
Good luck all!
#210
Sports Betting Forum / Re: NFL sunday
October 13, 2013, 08:20:50 PM
"WINNAH WINAHH EVERYONE GETS A FREE CHICKEN DINNAH"