Yes I agree.

It is simple and effective sometimes and is flat staking.

It is forgiving in that a loss game can be quickly recovered.

Key to improving 'efficiency', ie effectiveness, ie net gain, ie rate of earning, ie overcoming the negative expectation, is in finding the sweet spot where is the peak of the bell curve or decay curve in distribution of outcome hits.

Is it better to stop after first attempt, or to go to say 4 or 5 attempts, or to 9 attempts?

It is a parallel/ cousin to the Clump Theory which was of course first noted by Vic.

Contiguous wheel numbers are attractive targets and the clustering phenomenon I believe also can be captured ( when it is in a phase on cycle) with a tighter parameter than 10 spins. That seems loose and though the graph is good, more varied tests are needed. I suggest say 5 spins, 4 targets. Give it a shot. Also note the off cycles. What do you do when the wheel is just not co-operating. Find a stop loss parameter or overview trigger that can keep you out of the game / off that table during such a phase.

This is all about knowing the bet characteristics.

This is a profitable methodology when applied with discipline and knowledge. Research needs to be definitive and the RNG samples of millions of samples can be useful.

If anyone is interested in having ideas tested, and access to over 22 million spin samples for testing, please write PM to me and I can refer you to the source. For ethical reasons I am not publishing that link here directly.

I have my own live spin samples for my own private testing. It is prudent to source your test data from several different locations, sources, samples. Results can vary surprisingly. That is why the large number spread has definitive role.

My own private work about which I have written many times uses 4 to 6 attempts on 9 numbers and flat stakes on cluster analysis.

That can be compared in effectiveness to say 4 numbers on 9 attempts. I am sure you will find that most effective duration, through testing by trial and error will be 4 to 5 attempts. testing as in a laboratory environment needs to be systematic and logical. To an analytical mind like mine the test process is exciting. It is like a search, a hunt, a quest, and sometimes may be rewarding. Othertimes not. You learn to deal with disappointment as the finds more than make up for that time and loss.

Key will be to read the true nature of short cycle phenomena and find most effective stops and starts and editing seams so as to keep that graph generally upward trending. You are looking to dampen variance exposure.

I have written quite fully on Clump Theory and application on my Blog.

The ongoing research and exploration by Ignatus is good work.

@ Albalaha

Why do you adopt such a negative attitude toward this excellent research, and close down any suggestion that further development of ideas can follow?  For example I am aware of a colleague's work involving 37 spin cycles that  has outstanding practical value and proof of performance. This is long cycle work.

In short cycle work there can be opportunities with regard to remaining targets, or alternatively with awakening sleepers.

No need to close the door Al.

Thanks Sqzbox for such a compact and practical summary. Thanks Teorulte for your initiative and quest.

This can be a useful first step in designing an effective and efficient bet. Will be working on this over coming weeks.

I will go into this with more practical help - no not hints - when writing on my Blog in early 2015.

The statements I have recently been able to make are able to be verified should anyone care to enquire and I believe my statement will arouse remarkable interest. By the way my work is not for sale or hire. It has been done to show others what can be achieved.

I can refer you to an independent website which can permit you to measure and determine your range of performance against the casino with your method. I say range because it swings between optimal and adverse parameters. Many readers here are not idle patrons with more money than sense. Instead many genuinely seek and search for genuine ways forward.

There have been many fraudsters over the years who have taken advantage of this sincere search. Charles and Simon were the last. My passion to beat the game was fired by their willful and pre-meditated fraud. It cost me three years of research.

However what treasures came out of this - and it is true, sometimes adversity is your best friend.

My colleague who is a research chemist by profession has actually prioritised his best methods and has established that his best methods meet the requirements that Charles established to definitively evaluate a winning method. This is based on over 22.5 million spins of tests thanks to digital efficiencies where the seemingly impossible has now been made possible at will.

Also fundamental credit must be given to my colleague Sqzbox who first defined an 'efficient bet'.

I will be writing with some live report detailing from early January 2015.
Happy New Year
XXVV

My one vote has already had a 9% impact.

There are winning methods in roulette that enable the house edge to be overcome.

I have certainly pointed toward the direction of research that can enable such achievement. Even with the best of knowledge you may still lose from time to time. Essence is to restrict loss and  also advantage winning. Better still find a suitable smart bet that is efficient and economical. Play only with money you afford to risk or potentially lose, ie free money. Playing with scared money, ie money that should be prioritised for use elsewhere, causes extreme stress anxiety and eventual catastrophic failure. Learn not to do this. Learn not to do a lot of things that others do. Be honest with yourself, and others so you are trustworthy.

As soon as a modest and suitable realistic profit is made per session, then leave, enabled to return another day and further build on your profit. Research the power of compounding and Einstein's work on this. It is taught at Wharton.

It is unlikely that a step by step method will be posted on this Forum that has all the answers, but by having the right attitude, asking the right questions, and being at the right place at the right time with sufficient resources will enable success. I have posted material and seen material here posted by others that can enable a full time professional income once fluent, resourced and experienced.

Know that is possible and the winning edge you achieve can be measured very accurately.

My colleague does it every day and has proven a method that meets all the criteria of testing sought by Charles and Simon. I say this to encourage others. It requires about 10,000 hours of work. That will deter most.

Intent of my post is to encourage and hopefully raise some questions and challenge/ shatter some negative attitudes.

Christmas Greetings
XXVV

Your suggested approach RD is smart, very smart, although am intrigued also by Sputnik's argument and attention span. Thanks for the notes and will carefully study.

Consider also the tales from Rolex and others in the Problem Gambling thread.

Essence of failure is that the winner does not know when to pause, or better to stop and exit. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in a casino environment, at some stage of the visit, more than half the players will be ahead, and some studies suggest this may be in excess of two thirds, yet 90% will leave as losers, rationalised as the cost of the 'casino experience'. I would be interested if anyone here, perhaps with links to casino professional management can provide some specific statistics on this phenomenon.

My own empirical experience with live roulette play is that in any ten sessions, only three are failures, and by that I mean too difficult
to interpret the data and be ahead at any time, or from another point of view, unlucky.

Seven sessions were winners, and of those at least one was a golden session offering returns beyond expectation, ie say 100% return on RB. Most winning sessions were in the range 20-50% of RB.

With a range of techniques it is not difficult to enable winning outcomes at some stage of the session.However from my earlier experiences I can say in honesty that for a variety of reasons and rationales, in several of those seven sessions I have left without profit. This is a behaviour which I have studied at length mainly observing my own judgments but sometimes also those of colleagues or strangers.

In my personal view human behaviour is the most difficult variable to control.

Over recent years this has become clearer and clearer, and a few strategies have been developed to deal with this, including adaptations from several professional traders in the financial markets, and studies into the psychology of loss and profit.

Next year on my blog I will be writing a series on this, and will publish some live data based on daily play with an analysis and critique of what was encountered and how it was handled.

There are several ways to encourage more responsible (professional) play and having that is one way.

Overall I think RD is very smart and lots of small gains accepted, even one spin wonders, can accumulate and be compounded, to lift the success rate from 70% to 90%.  In fact I believe it is possible to achieve a compounding rate of earning when the smart techniques can be matched by consistent smart play.

One truth we have to accept is that human fallibility, frailty, and possibility of human error is a fact , although may vary according to personality type, personality traits, compulsive behaviour scale, addictive behaviour tolerance, and tolerance of risk.

Know yourself - that is the first step and that may take some time.

Also I have developed a two or even three step process to enable more efficient and longer winning streaks through pausing and review of earlier loss and then switching to a recovery phase. This is a combination of money management and use of differing techniques and differing unit values to attempt to mitigate loss. Another way is just to head to the exit at a certain threshold. Finally, yet another way is to employ a professional playing partner. Two heads are better than one.

As a postscript I note that some methods have optimum playing cycles as part of the bet characteristic. That is why I would employ my first choice technique as the attack strategy and employ say 200 units with a goal to access minimum of say 25 units, preferably 50 units. perhaps in 7 cases out of 10 this can be done with an occasional larger win say 100 units or more. Note one key is to have a technique that can quickly recover a lost bank. Not always possible though.

Suppose we lose 200 units.

Then pause, and reflect on a technique as first anchor. My usual method though has a built in recovery ( after a pause) and 95 times over a 100 there will be a triple appearance of the missing targets over a short cycle. Shorter the cycle quicker and more full the recovery. A weaker recover may just recover a smaller proportion of the earlier loss. All that by the way is flat staked.

So what to do if the desire is there to risk more but plan to recover all the loss and maybe still add a little profit on top.

A simple though crude example might be say that the first attack lasts say 37 spins and it is possible then to note the remaining outcomes from the 37 or 38 targets possible. Maybe 10-12  targets remain, sometimes a few more or a few less.

Switch the unit value and hunt down say 10 targets, then 9, then 8, then 7. More often than not these outcomes will be in quick succession. But beware, sometimes you will encounter a stubborn hold which means lots of other repeaters. Switch accordingly. Be smart and do not necessarily dig in for a dour battle but a recovery progression play will see it through - eventually. I have seen 17 attempts on a ten target play before eventual hit and movement forward. Beware of Gamblers Fallacy rationales.

Test using low unit values as prototype live, or better using Spielbank live data. Test, test and more testing is wise.

There may be clues  and emphasis by way of wheel section or street or finale on some targets than others. Research.

Ideally aim to achieve say three good hits of +15 units or more ( but with a unit value say triple the earlier value). If one hit suffices then err to the simpler exposure ( thanks Occam).

Also I have noted it is certain as a signal to stop and take profit after three consecutive hits, or two closely spaced hits. That sort of clustering of wins may be ahead of a loss streak, or a run of outs, and we don't want that.

As usual, timing is so important. When your perception timing is all wrong, and you are 'out of phase' - this is a signal to just stop.

Hope this interests you or assists.

Indeed, play only with funds ( free money) you can afford to lose/ risk. Playing with frightened money is a disaster waiting to happen and fear or fear of loss will be your undoing.

Thankyou. This is fascinating work and the wider applications are ingenious.

Ken and Esoito.

Simplicity can be beautiful, but one of my favourite books is Complexity and Contradiction in Architecture by the great US Architect Robert Venturi.  There is real complexity and false complexity. Nature has no false complexity, only human endeavours that can be so.

The essence of beauty and exquisite engineering is removal of the superfluous, and a walk in any park or garden will illustrate the workings of this principle from leaf and flower design to great trees and their cantilever wonders.

I heard an interview this morning with Professor James Bagian,  US Engineer, Surgeon and Astronaut.

He flew with NASA 337 hours in space and told of the wonders of our unaided human eye that can resolve images from 180 miles above the earth to see the grid patterns on airport runways or ship's wakes that can trail 1000 miles  behind a smooth ocean traveler when the sun angles permitted.

He was the guy who developed the procedure, still used today, to reduce motion sickness for astronauts.

His role these days is, amongst other stuff, to tour the world and spread the awareness of human frailty. Yes, we all make mistakes; even he has, although he is a very cool dude. He tells us the growing +18% of GDP of Healthcare in the US and the major importance of preventing human error.

Notorious are the cases of wrong side ( left or right) or  more often, the wrong person in surgery.

What he teaches is the simple principle of all within the operating theatre to introduce themselves on a first name basis to the patient ( this improves patience confidence and improves results by +10% in positive outcomes) and that a patient is asked to state their  full name and date of birth before surgery ( notice not to answer yes or no to questions).

Simple pilot- like check lists  and  layered procedures of cross checking should then eliminate all errors, including the infamous left/ right quandary.

Over the past ten years since introduced these 'simple' measures and acknowledgement of our human frailties, have made huge savings and improvements in patient and medical staff outcomes.

Also regarding risk of spread of a disease, his logical simple two step procedure - #1 limit the spread #2 go to the source. His comments on the contradictory statements and procedures of ill prepared medical organisations in the recent ebola issues showed how confusion can arise from two contradictory statements issued at the same time. Simple resolution. Keep focus and issue one statement only.

Regarding roulette, I increasingly acknowledge and identify areas of weakness in my professional play and work to at least mitigate these. Often errors such as playing while over-tired or without focus, ie distracted/ fragmented attention, can result in disastrous consequences.

This applies to driving, playing chess, and dealing with the complexities of roulette, by staying in focus and keeping simple clarity of intention and discipline.

Under pressure, we need to be well trained and drilled to simple recovery procedures or to exit strategically. The old saying, when you are in a hole - stop digging, is appropriate.

There will be at least two types of speculative ( higher risk)  investment work for me next year.

One will be roulette - which I will write about from January onwards.

The other will be racing - and yes that will be mainly Australian races and I will write a column on that also in this Forum.

There are techniques that are best suited to differing events, tracks and conditions, field sizes and quality of participants.  Because of the larger trifectas available I also play 'provincial' trotting meetings in NZ.

James McDonald the brilliant young (21) NZ jockey mentioned earlier did win one of the Flemington races yesterday. I sometimes play the jockeys just as much as the horses, as the strike rates of an emerging star is a valuable track to follow.

Well if you are at Joe's Cafe you would receive beer, wine and now champagne as of course the first four were also boxed.

It demonstrates the practical use of a box methodology and earlier research  has shown that box 10 can be useful in certain types of races and can forgive anchor failures.

The 'anchor' method would have taken you down with it as #1 finished a tired last. It should never have been raced after the brilliant performance recently to win the other Cup. After the race, the champion died in the stables - as did another finisher placed 7th after a freak accident where the the horse was spooked ( those Spooks again) by a crowd member waving a flag ( probably an Aussie flag - the one with one too many stars). While kicking out the thoroughbred fractured a delicate bone and had to be destroyed. They are fragile instruments - thoroughbreds. Not a good day for the insurers, but better for the bookies.

While the race was running I was actually playing roulette quite successfully at the time and watching Flemington on a giant screen.

The kiwi horse owned by a syndicate of dairy farmers finished third, and in their modest way had noted the horse was honest under tough questioning by several Aussie Spooks and was likely to finish in the top five. One dairy farmer, a little too much milk maybe, announced this after the race had finished.

Looking forward to next year's race already.

XXVV

Yes indeed thanks Esoito.

What you have suggested is indeed a trifecta plan I used to apply with great success particularly when there was a strong and reliable anchor and the possibility ( as often with MC fields) that an outsider would arrive late and hugely boost the dividend. Also that the anchor in this case, the Japanese import, is paying  good place money as outlined. I used to apply this with maiden fields to great success where one stronger entry stood out among an uneven  and often untried/ unsuccessful field, and particularly in trying conditions.

This way you have the calculated risk that ALL other entries are covered no matter what. Surely it will be in final three? The anchor place bet demonstrates my belief. In recent years with many more exquisite champions in the field, and local breeding unable or unwilling to breed the spread of stayers that once were so famed, the massive trifecta dividends have reduced.

If you are sure it will win or place second you can reduce cost by a third or more, or better,  as outlined reduce cost by percentage betting taking only say a 10% dividend.  Quite exciting. Good luck everyone. I wonder if was #20 that GG was suggesting.

Now what about that first four bet after all ?.....

Take care and good luck.

Here is my box 10 :

1.3.4.5.11.12.13.21.22.24

Cost $360 for 0.50c  trifecta.

This can also be done at much less risk exposure, but just as much fun with a percentage bet that will cost less than $100.

Disclaimer : this is my hypothetical bet and anyone choosing to follow such a suggestion should conduct their own due diligence - speculate only with funds you can afford to lose in worst case scenario.

My personal staking contains several covering bets.

AH recommended boxing the internationals - suggest for quinella, trifecta and quaddie.

All bets covered by place bet on the Japanese horse 1 paying approx $2.70.

As a rank outsider I also rate 13 because of the jockey - a future champion.

Good luck.

R.

Quote from: NathanDetroit on November 02, 2014, 10:10:08 PM
Reality: Seasoned players  accept a Win goal between 15 and 20 %  The  higher the bankroll the lower the win goal.Loss limit of original bankroll  a comfortable 25 %.

Professional players have always one foot pointed towards the door.

Thanks Deep Space for turning the conversation back to roulette. Also thanks for your story. I really like narratives. I wish you every success.

ND has stated the truth based on a lifetime of empirical testing, and this is the distillation of vast experience and once again, thanks to him for this cool summary.

Roulette in live wheel play can be beaten, and is beaten by professionals, but it needs the professionalism to see through the smoke and mirrors.

The working parameters are stated so precisely here by ND and the exit strategy is to keep an eye on the timing to get out of the building to disburse your profits with reason and a cool head.

There are various techniques that can be played and some are more efficient than others, smart bets.

Nevertheless the truth is that you will lose sometimes and as with any money professional whether trading, dealing or banking, there will be losses, and how those losses are mitigated and handled is a key to ultimate success. As with all matters, outcomes are cyclic, and the psychology of handling strings of wins, and strings of losses, must be mastered.

I am aware of several forms of roulette but personally prefer to avoid internet RNG as results can vary from location to location and of course all the programs are designed to beat and cheat the player, sooner or later. In your chosen location DS the parameters you have set may work, at this time anyway, but when you attempt to withdraw profit unless that in itself is carefully managed you may encounter problems. I do not like this because you do not have control.

My way is to play preferably live in house at a small trusted local casino where the casino staff are known to me.

Lots of relatively small gains can accumulate over many months, and there will be cycles of loss to keep the casino happy. Nevertheless it is demonstrable that the player can achieve a net positive edge over the house ( this still does not eliminate losses from time to time) and with intelligent money management a positive cash flow can be achieved from roulette.

These strategies used are not applicable to other casino games but I can state that from time to time I use roulette profit to play slots and if the favoured machine ( I have three in the entire casino) is in the right cycle profit s can be leveraged. This is smart application of reading the cycles of play in roulette and suitable slots that pay large jackpots with a hierarchy of smaller more accessible jackpots. Playing with 'free' money' is a key, as is timing of entry and exit, as well as suitable stepped leverages on unit values. The strategy is not complex but has been developed over the years by empirical testing and lots of patience.

That is my narrative.

There really are some hilarious moments while reading, and our English language offers plenty of opportunity for subtleties and ironically they are best described by French or German words. 'Nuance' comes to mind and the accidental or intended puns in 'tipping' are prolific.

I suggested I would tip in some funds.

By this I meant a tip-truck type heavy and substantial delivery.  Not a tiny tip such as you leave the waiter after your coffee.

Tipping is rarely done in Australia and NZ, especially New Zealand where the Scottish spirit is strong, especially in the colder south.
Of course not so when you want to impress your girlfriend or chat up the waitress. Great way to build up a loyal support if you are a regular.

Tipping is illegal in the casino itself.

We don't seem to have the manic killer instinct dealers in Christchurch that the Baccarat Player Rolex refers to, nor the evil entity management. I went in at lunchtime this week and complained to the Casino Duty  Manager that my points in my private account had not been correctly credited from the previous day's play. He went out of his way to assist me and we found they had been but my churn equated to a level less than I had expected $1000 = 66 points. I apologised and went away finding out something new. However before I could leave the boss insisted he buy me an excellent red wine. It was charming. They don't do that in Auckland.

One rather bizarre casino I enjoyed was in Canberra ( Australia's diplomatic and federal capital). It is run by Casinos Austria.

I noted that on a Friday night from 6pm all the foreign staff of the diplomatic houses start gradually behaving worse and worse until by 10pm they are literally brawling and crawling over the tables in the panic to place their tax free bets. It is not the casino staff or management you have to worry about. It is the crazed mainly male punters - tipping beer over the tables.

No tipping there either - in the reward to a dealer type of nuance.

So we are suggesting donation or tip buttons perhaps.

Give it a try.

If it does not work I have a theory that might explain the outcome, and may tip the scale to a new solution. But it does not involve a tip - which is another word for a big chaotic mess. That word dates back to the collieries (coal mines) and to Dickens in Great Expectations - multiple tips/' heaps' - now there is a word out of colloquial NZ English. Thanks heaps.

No doubt there will be another manic panic come October 30. Unless alternative attitudes prevail and that is really where the change needs to come .

When things are tipped or tip it often means to fall out of balance. Yet balance is actually what we want.

Hundreds of pinterest (play on tip/pin) images could be posted. No that's enough. I've been tipped off change is coming.

Lets move forward.

I am prepared to tip in a modest regular monthly amount  from my new bitcoin account ( circle.com) that has been set up to facilitate fast easy international transfer of funds not involving banks. I use VISA/ paypal in the interim for international entry and exit  to the bitcoin account as I do not currently have a domestic US banking account. This may change next year. The point I am making is that we should seek to find innovative and profitable ways to support and yet invest at the same time. Tim Draper a US Venture Capitalist this week confirmed he sees bitcoin at $10,000 USD within 3 years and views investing in such as one his top three recommendations/ investment priorities.

Here is what I suggest in order to avoid this monthly panic scramble to sustain this most valuable Forum vehicle*. Establish a specific account that will benefit Victor's needs to maintain and grow the Forum and help sustain his expenses.  Determine what the monthly target should be and show the ongoing inputs to the account on a Forum thread/ screen. Better still, determine an annual target and let's tip in as quickly as possible the needed funds and see the Forum run thus in a confident businesslike and professional manner based on an international currency standard (USD or equivalent), and not on short term rather shaky thinking.

Let this be a Forum Initiative.

If the Forum can't get its act together I will do it myself to help Vic, as a priority goal in 2015. realize the value here.

* The Intellectual Property Value / (the sum of knowledge) of what is held and is accessible within the Forum is considerable and realisable to all who are prepared to put in the effort.

And so while on the subject of 'value' have a look at the recent posts by GG. The reference to 'pretentious' sounds like one of the glib word choices Real/ Xander the troll throws around to discredit whatever comes into his tunnel vision.

Pretentious- attempting to impress by affecting greater (undeserved) importance or merit than is actually possesed.

If you value so lowly the context here, why bother to participate Green Guy? In all my dealings with Victor 'pretentious' is not a word I would select.

Thanks Albalaha for suggesting a pool of funds that is universally accessible and yes even the smallest donation/ tip can be helpful. When we win be mindful of our loyalty to this remarkable source of information that is increasingly well managed and protected. it is a good mindful habit to be grateful.