@MBB


Thanks for your kind enquiry.
No. Have always been XXVV on first Roulette Forum and then Bet Selection, and only writing since the fiasco with Charles and Simon.
R
XXVV

@Flat_in_o


Fascinating. My friend was playing at Jupiters mainly mid 1980's and we met in Sydney ( before the harbour casino opened there). He played the Private Members high stakes tables and used a hair raising progression but often would win virtually every spin because he played 4 sets of nine numbers and naturally they would materialise (often but not always) every spin to the groans and gasps of onlookers. Sometimes bets would overlap between sets and as the staking progressed from 2 to 5 chips per number, sometimes wins would come in with 10 or more on board at $10 to $20 units. At its best fantastic.


But of course it was not always like that.


Sometimes, mostly very late, when mistakes started to creep in and the ecart tide turned, the dream could become a challenging potential nightmare.


My friend was always honest. He told me where/ when it could go wrong and that is one reason why he invited me to join him, so a team could spread the load. He taught me all he knew and today I still have his notes written by him furiously but impeccably in haze of thick cigarette smoke. He was a chain smoker.


However also, as a professional applied mathematician and statistician, he was convinced he had a winner and started negotiating a contract where he would be paid to stay away from the Casino. I noted this with concern.


My business interests were complex overseas and I delayed returning to Australia for six months. During that time he passed away suddenly through a heart attack. His home base was Vienna as well as Brisbane.


I have worked for 30 years with his methods and they constantly evolve. One major breakthrough I made was to scrap the progression and replace it with flat staking. I will always be grateful to him for blazing a trail.


BestXXVV

@Flat_in_o


Thanks for your genuine concern.


I am delighted to say he passed on all his secrets to me ( bless him) and am still considering which casino(s) to approach on that basis. However a little bell keeps ringing in my ears and says -don't do it! - lol.

'determine your parameters empirically from past results'.

this is the essence of determining what I term bet characteristics and the knowledge and familiarity of the behavioral parameters of the bet are constructed from a statistically suitable size of empirical evidence.


Some might argue infinite data is required but I find 1000 bet samples is sufficient. This may require say 10,000 spins or more to be witnessed (has to be live genuine data) and is time consuming but the benefits are durable.


Thanks Bayes always for your observations. XXVV

@Sputnik


Excellent MM thanks
R  XXVV

@Tomla


Good Fortuna!


One of my roulette mentors, a very smart commercial cookie and a Director of a company that markets Coca Cola in Australia, met with Jupiters Casino owners in Queensland ( some years ago now) in order to have the Casino pay him NOT to play his (quite brilliant) method.


I can report that my friend passed away soon after.


XXVV

Thanks weddings, and my reply was modified while you were in reply, so the detail needs to be discussed once the principle is agreed to. Looking forward to what unfolds and I will P/M in due course.

I will be in support of this and will be prepared to invest +200 units say in this prototype venture but I recommend that a percentage of profits or turnover/churn go to the Forum, much as the Host for a Baccarat or Poker game might demand.
This could be a fantastic commercial application as independent and objective host by the BetSelection.cc Forum. There may be some contractual or legal issues to consider however.


In fact I would participate only on the basis that the Forum benefited. I like the commercial application, and the potential to expand this intellectual property base within the Forum amongst the members so they that choose may benefit. It is a win-win.


Very interesting.

It is a tired old fallacy that someone investing in this has no self ability to earn from roulette or to earn at such a rate. Quite the reverse, as my own earnings can quickly cover this higher level of risk*. I support expansion. Also I would recommend a philosophical stance of being open to change, as there are several examples in current world investment strategies that relate to new paradigms through electronic currency and use of computers for research and development.


We shall see how this prototype fares.

It is an exciting and refreshing idea. Yes there is risk of which I am keenly aware but I am prepared to support and contribute to a direction that 'expands' the current self limited view of things.

It is a very demanding challenge that has been set by the project initiators and will be fascinating to see unfold. I wish all well. You will of course issue a Universal Disclaimer.

Best
XXVV


*rate of earning


This is a term that can vary wildly over the event horizon monitored. In a recent live testing my SF Theory bet application earned +270 units in 35 spins. Does this mean that I always earn at that rate? - Of course not in fact the big picture rate averages around +0.5 units per spin, being a +50% edge flat staking. However despite that I have encountered variance where I have encountered 5 losing sessions among 7 sessions, quickly followed I should add by 7 consecutive winning sessions. Of course those who have no ability to think about the inter-connectedness of spins or experience will ignore this.

Quote from: Albalaha on January 09, 2014, 07:40:24 PM

          Better focus on an MM that can let u survive in the worst phases and extract best in a little favorable ones.

Indeed that is shrewd advice in one sentence.
XXVV

Thank you for the various opinions and positions stated. Fascinating.
R
XXVV

@Albalaha


Thanks for your quick reply.  You have not noted what I detailed.

On the basis that the Player plays a simple 'neutral' method, experimental evidence indicates that in over 50% of the time, perhaps often much more, the Player will be in profit ( by luck/ skill/ serendipity/blunder) and as the Player is now a smart and shrewd Player, the profit will be banked, and the Player will happily leave the Casino.


On the next visit the same outcome, or variations therefrom will unfold and profit made will be held, not given back.


Yes occasionally, perhaps 30-50% of the time there will be loss, but loss will be stopped at precisely -2.75% of churn. Loss of this type will be from the outset of the game, ie the Player was never in profit.


There will be a net gain to the Player ongoing over time ( in theory) given consistent rules are applied.


To add a little more spice, the Player, encouraged by early success now contrives to leverage the profit on an up and pull strategy, and immediately goes into cessation upon the first hint of resistance or erosion of more than 30% of the gains made as profit.


My innocent question is, even without a method with proven edge, applying smart money management and self discipline, can the Player become a more consistent winner. The winning can be measured. This measurement can determine the edge provided by the Player's freedom to stop and start at will. Has anyone ever calculated or acknowledged this power of freedom for the Player?


Best
XXVV

Mmmm thanks Albalaha.


Your answer may well be anticipated, and may be the view of many. You may be right. However I would like to add some spice to this question.


I think you should give the Player some credit for good judgment and shrewd experience gained from reading the writings of Albalaha,  John Patrick et al.; ie some intelligence based on observation within casino play. So many players ( anecdotal evidence is +66%) at some stage of their 'casino experience' are in profit. What if, (however remote the prospect)  they have seen the light, and take their profit, and it averages say +30% of their capital/ RB per session. In other words they exercise 'discretion' and 'judgment' in money management. Or if more prudent ( far fetched I know in casino experience with mass markets), they are 'content' with +10% gain.


When I test methods I apply 'braindead' discretion, ie none. This is a conservative way of seeing things, and assumes and adopts a 'bulldozer' approach, which is actually not the real experience of Players.


What if, given some training and experience, the Player chooses to ALWAYS exit when a 10% profit has been made, or say 50% of 'winners' decide to take a +10% profit on their session capital. Their next casino experience is a fresh event in their experience universe, or personal screen of outcomes. Intervening or observed events where they do not actually play become a montage that is irrelevant. However, step by step, they apply shrewd and cool smart judgment. Next time playing live they adopt the same discipline, and with growing confidence based on a medium to longer term view as opposed to short term poor judgment.


The newly 'educated' Player becomes a 'Smart Player', and consistently, when offered the opportunity seizes the profit. The Player may also lose from time to time  ( say 30-50%) but refuses to 'chase loss' and quits when 30% of the session RB has gone. In theory this may be/ equate to say 3% of the Player gross turnover/ churn in the session but the Player is intelligent enough to recognize  that this is an adverse session and gracefully exits at this point. The Player has monitored outgoings and reads the -2.75% level being the negative expectation level on a single zero wheel. We understand that in roulette, many naive players covering large areas of the table with bets offer the casino far better odds. However in this case we have a Smart Player. Such spreads are not the way to win in the long term.


Perhaps you could comment given the 'intelligence' of this Player. All Players can be trained to do this, even if they are playing with a method without proven edge. Surely this more disciplined approach, even if applied to a 'neutral' method ( ie neither win nor loss beyond -2.75%)  is a measurable edge in their favour, that is the ability to join or leave a session at will.


Best
XXVV

Open for discussion - please let me have your views on the subject :  As a Player you have the freedom to join and/ or quit the game at your will. In other words you choose when to join a game - perhaps you have seen an opportunity arising and you want to seize that opportunity. Perhaps also you have made a suitable profit, whether on one spin or a hundred or more spins.  Or you have made a loss but you wish to cut that loss and stop loss immediately as you read the current phase of the game as hostile. As the Player you have additional degrees of freedom.


You have degrees of freedom not available to the Casino Bank.


What, if any, is the percentage positive edge thus gained by the Player, over the House, being able to choose point of entry/ exit?


Or is this concept already factored into existing negative expectation percentage?


Or is this an imaginary construct?


Please advise.
XXVV

 


Multiple Success to all who venture forth this New Year and to all who wisely apply the sum of knowledge represented and expanded through this wonderful Forum. Cheers !


Very Best
XXVV
R,

@Kimo Li


Thank you. These are wonderful and helpful answers. A 20% return is highly desirable and would even recommend 10% but exactly as you say - determine what you want and work to that.
R.