Maybe the 1300s or 1400s.  But today? 

Quote

I don't play systems, I play methods. As for yourself, all you preach is THEORY, nothing more. -Mr.J

Mr. J,

We'll call your systems whatever you'd like them to be named.  Martingale, strategy, upandwin, youwingmo, upandpull, theslingy, the wingywong, method, etc.  Pic a name and then just slap a little label on it and that's the name we'll use from now on.   

Short of doing a screen share so you can witness the simulations first hand, I don't know how you could see it.

Yes, it's definitely not for everyone, especially you Mr. J.  You should stick with your little systems.  And no, it's not 1923.

It will cut the house edge slightly, but it won't win in the long run.  I've already run such simuations like this one countless times over the years and over several hundreds of thousands of live spins. 

QuoteAs for Derren Brown, he isn't a fake. his an entertainer...an illusionist-Turner

Well duh!   


That's my point.  (XXVV was pointing to his experiements, as though they had some kind of scientific merit.)

QuoteHave a look at a recent film by Derren Brown in the UK on the Experiments, and how expectation can really dramatically impact results. It is quite a beautiful experiment the one set in the little town in Wales. -XXVV

Report


XXVV,

Derren Brown is a fake.  Why would you cite him?  He's nothing more than a magician, and illusionist.  In a way, a huckster.



http://sabotagetimes.com/reportage/don't-believe-in-derren-brown/


Roulette is not a mental game.  Having a positive or negative attitude has no effect on the game whatsoever. 


-Xander

QuoteWARNING: Chi Square test is statistically insignificant and unreliable to determine bias if only small amounts of data (let's say only three cycles) are at hand, because despite to common belief deviations from expected  outcomes on a smaller amount of trials are mostly due to coincidence, not bias.


Just bigger than that....say 5 cycles is still not out of the woods.


How many cycles before you can trust a chi square test? -Turner

You can't use it on little samples.  Starting at around 200 to 250 spins you can look at the chance of randomness to see how many test samples you'd need to encounter a similar test result.  Even then, a high chi square will likely be the result of a random spike on most wheels.  However, any additional amount of information that you can get about the wheel is useful.

You guys need a way to identify when the wheel is running in a cycle where the numbers could possibly be clumping or running hot for a reason.

Ideally, you need to witness the dealer's actions as well.  There's a lot of information that can be taken into account.  Probably far more than most people would be willing to collect.

-Xander

The opening ceremony was beautiful!  Amazing!

QuoteDragoner is right of course; there are more paths which lead to equilibrium than not. See this article. But also you have to remember that the 'equilibrium' is with respect to proportion, not absolute numbers. In terms of the actual numbers of reds vs blacks, outcomes actually get further away from equilibrium as you do more trials. I've lost count of the number of times I've said this over the years. -Bayes

So true.

I've always believed that there's really two types of "long run". 

(Bayes, I know you already know the next part)

Long run type one: The first one is the point at which a 3,4 or 5 standard deviation fluctuation is no longer enough to break even.  This happens more quickly than most people realize, and if you're an avid gambler, then you'll reach this type of "long run" within a year or two.  I used a range of standard deviation on purpose.  Think of them as your own personal confidence levels.  If you're losing at 3 standard deviations of variance, then chances are, you're done, and unlikely to break even again with your system.  If you're winning after such a fluctuation, then keep testing.  See if you can reach 4 standard deviations.  The key is that the standard deviation continues to climb, as the sample climbs.  When talking about standard deviation, it's always important to specify the number of trials. 

Many avid gambler's have reached the type one long run, and live in denial.  Others will admit that over the years they have lost far more than they have won.


Long run type two: The other type of "long run" has to do with the point at which equilibrium begins to occur with respect to proportion and the law of large numbers.  Think of this type as being the "longer run"    I really belief that most gambler's need to focus more intention on the type 1 "long run" rather than the type 2 "longer run"

QuoteIn terms of the actual numbers of reds vs blacks, outcomes actually get further away from equilibrium as you do more trials. I've lost count of the number of times I've said this over the years. -Bayes

I wish more system junkies would read the quote above.



-Xander

Our media in the western world isn't the same as it is in the socialist and communist countries.  It's pretty good.  Especially Fox News.

The news here in the US, Canada, and the European news is showing that Sochi is not ready for the games, and that the place is like a ghetto.

Iggiv,

Are you from there?

If you are, then I take back some of what I've said about there.    ( I thought you were Canadian?)

In Canada, they had access to McDonalds, and a very wide range of different restaurants from which they could freely choose.  Many of which were open 24 hours a day.  McDonalds was not there only option.

You can't compare Vancouver Canada with Sochi.  For starters, Canada has fresh water, hot water, heat, power,  and food.  Many stores are open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.  The hotel accommodations there are top notch.  Canada is a safe place to live and visit.

The horror stories are true.  They are being told by the Swiss, Germans, French, British, etc...  It's not just the US media.