But why an RNG?

I believe that you'd have the best chance of winning if you were to play on a live game. 

I wouldn't trust the software being used to run an RNG -and for some very good reasons as documented by Dr. Elliot Jacobson.

Why not play the live games at Fairway casino or any of the William Hill casinos?

-Xander

Gordonline,

You need to post your problems on the Wizardofvegas.com


The Wizard's forum has some weight in the gaming world and is referenced by some in the industry.


-Xander

I don't like it when drunks attempt to blame others for their actions.

However, I hate the predatory action of many casinos even more!  Especially when they thumb their noses at the law.  Gaming law is clear, the casinos aren't supposed to take your action if you're that drunk and impaired!

Relax Ken. 

Let's pick up some of the stones and hold off on throwing new ones.

Quote(Advantage-play is for suckers) Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing. Why would I take advice from a person who has dedicated no more than 9 hours to roulette?
He/she is a quitter in my book and I have no use for quitters!! No person has yet convinced me that their way of playing roulette is better than my way.....STILL WAITING -Mr. J.

Mr. J.,

Do you know the secret AP handshake?

Quote'Xander' - your claim is feeble and spurious. And this is your first line - you can't even get that right.

XXVV,

You're obviously not looking at the correct file.  Please check again.  The data is quite corrupt.  The dupes for the first 3030 spins are shown below. And they matter!  The actual file is once again attached to this post as well.

QuoteOne of my colleagues, a scientist, is refreshing in the objective view he has of many of his colleagues who happily and knowingly 'paper over the cracks' in terms of orthodoxies and refusal to answer difficult questions. It is wise to not be too certain about anything or to trade using others assumptions. These can be false. -XXVV

Why are all of these repeating sequences in this data?  Why didn't your "scientist" that you work with notice the duplicated spins??? 

Now, let's examine my "spurious" claim.


8 Lines 484 to 490  They mysteriously show up again 687 spins later!
28 seven spins that are the same as lines 1171 to 1177 
9 
3 
19 
29 
30 
------------------------

29 Lines 519 to 554 They mysteriously show up 765 spins later!
32 36 spins that are the same as lines 1284 to 1319. 
22 
8 
17 
25 
4 
17 
7 
17 
3 
29 
27 
20 
32 
3 
22 
5 
29 
4 
12 
28 
10 
21 
14 
28 
4 
14 
35 
35 
11 
14 
36 
13 
21 
33
--------------------
36 Lines 623 to 643 They mysteriously show up 453 spins later!
12 21 spins that are the same as lines 1076 to 1096. 
18 
32 
29 
36 
36 
8 
28 
6 
6 
25 
12 
35 
18 
29 
11 
26 
3 
8 
24
------------------

36   Line 1076 to 1096
12   21 spins that are the same as lines 623 to 643  They've already hit 453 spins ago!
18   
32   
29   
36   
36   
8   
28   
6   
6   
25   
12   
35   
18   
29   
11   
26   
3   
8   
24   
---------------

22   Lines 1101 to 1111.  They mysteriously show up 123 spins later!
19   11 spins that are the same as lines 1224 to 1234. 
26   
29   
5   
9   
7   
9   
10   
9   
36
--------
8   Line 1116 to 1156.  They mysteriously show up 122 spins later!
10   41 spins that are the same as Line 1238 to 1278
9   
5   
0   
22   
35   
0   
22   
9   
24   
34   
25   
25   
11   
23   
19   
32   
27   
7   
35   
36   
11   
25   
25   
11   
15   
10   
10   
4   
22   
10   
21   
18   
13   
26   
11   
34   
20   
12   
35
-------

8   Lines 1171 to 1177.  They've already hit 687 spins ago!
28   7 spins that are the same as  lines 484 to 490
9   
3   
19   
29   
30
--------

22   Lines 1224 to 1234.  They've already hit 123 spins ago!
19   11 spins that are the same as lines 1101 to 1111
26   
29   
5   
9   
7   
9   
10   
9   
36   
---------------

8   Lines 1238 to 1278.  They've already hit 122 spins ago!
10   41 spins that are the same as Lines 1116 to 1156
9   
5   
0   
22   
35   
0   
22   
9   
24   
34   
25   
25   
11   
23   
19   
32   
27   
7   
35   
36   
11   
25   
25   
11   
15   
10   
10   
4   
22   
10   
21   
18   
13   
26   
11   
34   
20   
12   
35   
------------

29   Lines 1284 to 1319.  They've already hit 765 spins ago!
32   36 spins that are the same as lines 519 to 554
22   
8   
17   
25   
4   
17   
7   
17   
3   
29   
27   
20   
32   
3   
22   
5   
29   
4   
12   
28   
10   
21   
14   
28   
4   
14   
35   
35   
11   
14   
36   
13   
21   
33
-----------

33   Lines 1792 to 1804.  They mysteriously show up again 131 spins later!
36   13 spins that are the same as lines 1923 to 1935
11   
11   
20   
23   
33   
11   
8   
25   
18   
16   
12

------------

2   Lines 1808 to 1825                                                                                                                                                   
21   23 spins that are the same as lines 2515 to 2537 with other spins added in between.  Weird!             
13   13
9   9
6   6
2   2
18   21
26   13
14   9
21   6
0   2
11   18
3   26
21   14
33   21
25   0
19   11
26   3
-------------

18   Lines 1827 to 1853.  They mysteriously show up again 712 spins later!
15   27 spins that are the same as lines 2539 to 2565
17   19
18   26
29   
35   
15   
23   
3   
7   
34   
25   
35   
11   
22   
4   
16   
14   
17   
5   
22   
3   
24   
6   
19   
11   
19   
-------------

30   Lines 1855 to 1863.  They mysteriously show up again 712 spins later
23   9 spins that are the same as lines 2567 to 2575
2   
27   
7   
29   
1   
5   
16   
-----------

33   Lines 1923 to 1935.  They've already hit 131 spins ago!
36   13 Spins that are the same as lines 1792 to 1804
11   
11   
20   
23   
33   
11   
8   
25   
18   
16   
12   

-----------------

2   Lines 2515 to 2537.  Wait a minute, we've seen these number before!  Someone's trying to fool us?
21   23 spins that are the same as lines 1808 to 1825 with other spins added in between
13   
9   
6   
2   
21   
13   
9   
6   
2   
18   
26   
14   ?? Data that has been inserted in between a repeating string of numbers
21   ??
0   
11   
3   
21   
33   
25   
19   
26   

-------------

18   Lines 2539 to 2565.  We've seen these spins before.  They hit 712 spins ago!
15   27 spins that are the same as lines 1827 to 1853
17   
18   
29   
35   
15   
23   
3   
7   
34   
25   
35   
11   
22   
4   
16   
14   
17   
5   
22   
3   
24   
6   
19   
11   
19
--------

30   Lines 2567 to 2575.  We've seen these spin before.  They hit 712 spins ago!
23   9 spins that are the same as lines 1855 to 1863
2   
27   
7   
29   
1   
5   
16   

--------

Well, what do you think now?  Do you still feel that my claim is spurious?  Unlike your supposed experts and scientists, I really know how to examine the data.  If I chose to, I could run a battery of additional tests on it that would make your brain bleed out your ears.     (For example, there's an unusual tendency for a number to show up roughly halfway across the wheel 17 spins later, which could mean digit flips  This means the person simply is turning a 1 into a 2, a 3 into a 4, a 21 into a 22, a 22 into a 23,... etc....  It looks suspicious) I suspect that some of the data is likely fake.


I'm not blaming you for the bad data.  I just don't appreciate you taking unwarranted jabs at me for pointing out the data was corrupt. 

Rather than throwing anymore rocks, what do you say we pick up some of the stones that have been thrown and start over?  

Sincerely,

-Xander


Note regarding the number flip investigation attachment:  The graphs shown are standard deviation value graphs. 


   




   
   




   
   

   

QuoteThis data is important to note because O'Neil'Dunne had an extraordinary and full life. His business career was at the top levels of management and commerce. A wonderful life.  I get really annoyed when someone hiding behind anonymity like Xander comes up with detail that would attempt to discredit this man's reputation in some way.XXVV

XXVV,

There was no attempt to discredit O'Neil.  Again, I think that you're being a bit melodramatic.  I simply noticed that his data looked skewed.  After having run a few tests, I was able to prove that the data was indeed corrupt.

Now if he's not the one responsible for the corrupt data, then who is?  The publisher?  The person that keyed the data?  You?   For the record, I don't believe that it was you and I've said this repeatedly. 

QuoteThe first specific example that Xander cites of 'very corrupt' inaccuracy of data is itself very corrupt. His example just is not accurate as there is an example of 21 doubling and 29 followed by 10 but the intervening numbers are different. -XXVV

Are you saying that you believe that the data is not corrupt, and that it's just caused by randomness? 

or

  Are you implying that I'm making this all up?

  The duplicated sequences will have a big effect on the system testing.  You should be happy that the duplicated strings have been highlighted, so that they can be removed.

You do want the testing to be more scientific and accurate don't you? 


For the record, I'm replying to the XXVV "Statement Thread" that he's locked.  http://betselection.cc/xxvv-studio/a-statement/   Since he's locked his thread, nobody is able to post.  Some people that have attempted to post there have had their posts deleted.  He likes to post on a public forum and likes to get in his jabs, but will not stand for a dissenting view. People in glass houses should not throw rocks. 


-Xander

By the way, love the unicorn Marshall . Too funny!   

Maybe I should have added another unicorn? 

QuoteXander...so what would good data look like....I mean...do you expect some repeat of data...or is there none...or is there a limit...say 5 numbers may repeat 1% in a certain sample....6 may repeat 0.1% etc...or am I trying to penetrate your inner sanctum
Oooh matron !!!!!-Turner

Using some basic probability, you can calculate the odds of a specific string repeating.  For example, the probability of seeing a specific seven number sequence repeating is the same as seeing a specific number repeating seven times in a row 1/37 ^7

Strings of three numbers in length are more common than you might think.  An occasional string of four numbers in a row is very unusual, but not out of the question.  A string of five numbers repeating is quite unusual, but I've actually seen it twice, possibly three times in my life in the form of a number that his five times in a row.  (Two of the times I witnessed it as it happened.  The third time I only saw three of them hit and the other two hits were already on the board.)  I've seen more four repeating sequences than fives.  And I see a three string sequence regularly.  Keep in mind that I have access to massive quantities of spins.

If there are more than a few sequences of five numbers repeating in sequence - in a large file, then they should be removed.

On the XXVV file I simply removed the sequences of seven spins or longer because it was faster than a full scrub.

QuoteYeah I heard about you AP guys...secret handshakes...decoder rings...the works -Roulette Key.  I just like the "closely guarded secret" thing going on in a public forum regarding a game few people give anyone a chance at winning at.

Yes, there really is a TOP SECRET AP HANDSHAKE.  Here's the link to it.  (But please! Be discrete! Do NOT share!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_IJCpZfrPA

I probably should have explained what I meant by a closely guarded secret.  Sorting data in that way and the programming code used wouldn't be of use to anyone on this board.  It wouldn't help anyone here win.  Don't read anything into it.  It's more of a programming thing.  I didn't mean for that to come across in the way that it did.

-Xander

QuoteXXVV Studio / Re: THREAD FIFTEEN - live play 28 Feb 2014 and updated comments
« on: March 01, 2014, 11:27:39 pm »

Regarding Macao,


Recall the tests were done in 1970 and the data published in POND book was methodically analysed by the Author's team and all charts are published in this excellent book -XXVV

QuoteApparently, according to Xander it is unlikely I was aware of the degree of 'corruption' in this spin data.-XXVV

I don't believe that you knew that it was corrupt data.  Finding repeating strings over so many spins is way beyond the expertise of a new player or layman.  I don't see how you could have known. I think it was probably the result of one or some of the following: The person that keyed the data,  because the original authors wanted to increase the number of spins that they had, or because their data collection proceedure was very amateurish.

QuoteHowever, what of the reputation of the Irish born, Canadian/US businessman Mr O'Neil-Dunne, a wartime RAF fighter pilot who flew with distinction night fighter mosquito aircraft equipped with radar, and an outspoken advocate for health warnings to be provided by Rothmans where he was a senior partner.-XXVV

What of it?  Aren't you being a bit dramatic here? Or are you implying that the repeating sequences of numbers are random and that I'm exaggerating all of this?  So he's a great pilot.  Big deal!  But that doesn't mean that he's good at collecting and recording data.  Tracking and organizing data is more difficult than most people realize.  Try tracking a few thousand spins sometime.  Then you'll understand how it can happen.

QuoteWhat of the reputation of Mr Stanley Ho and his management team who daily certified numbers, and Mr Ho frequently accompanied the Author in his sessions.

What of it?  I believe that you may be over estimating the efficiency and accuracy of casino staff.  My experience is that they are about as efficient as your local parks and rec division or water department.  In other words, not that great.

QuoteThe implications of this are fascinating, and true to form, the trouble maker strikes again.

I'm sorry, I guess I should have let everyone falsely believe that the WF3 could produce big wins based on the Macau testing?

Look, the system isn't that bad.  Your WF3 system and the numerous clones of it invented since the inception of the game, really will slightly reduce the house edge on live wheels.  It really is a step in the right direction.  Betting the hot numbers is far better than chasing the cold ones. 

Quote'Give me a Sign' to have nothing further to do with divisive and pointless posting by individuals who have little understanding yet distort interpretation and consider themselves authorities.-XXVV

Sorry XXVV.  But don't you're being just a bit melodramatic?   I'm simply posting the facts.  I'm sorry if the facts are divisive, and If the methods that I've laid out so that you can improve the system seem pointless to you.


-------------

Below is the list of the duplicated sequences of numbers within the first 3030 spins of the corrupt Macau spin file.  The file is also attached:

Please note that there are likely several more repeating sequences that are less than seven spins in length.  I've only highlighted the repeating sequences that are seven spins or longer in length.

Lines 484 to 490
7 spins that are the same as lines 1171 to 1177
Lines 519 to 554
36 spins that are the same as lines 1284 to 1319
Line 623 to 643
21 spins that are the same as lines 1076 to 1096
Line 1076 to 1096
21 spins that are the same as lines 623 to 643
Lines 1101 to 1111
11 spins that are the same as lines 1224 to 1234
Line 1116 to 1156
41 spins that are the same as Line 1238 to 1278
Lines 1171 to 1177
7 spins that are the same as  lines 484 to 490
Lines 1224 to 1234
11 spins that are the same as lines 1101 to 1111
Lines 1238 to 1278
41 spins that are the same as Lines 1116 to 1156
Lines 1284 to 1319
36 spins that are the same as lines 519 to 554
Lines 1792 to 1804
13 spins that are the same as lines 1923 to 1935
Lines 1808 to 1825                                                                                                                                                   2
23 spins that are the same as lines 2515 to 2537 with other spins added in between             21
Lines 1827 to 1853
27 spins that are the same as lines 2539 to 2565
Lines 1855 to 1863
9 spins that are the same as lines 2567 to 2575
Lines 1923 to 1935
13 Spins that are the same as lines 1792 to 1804
Lines 2515 to 2537
23 spins that are the same as lines 1808 to 1825 with other spins added in between
?? Data that has been inserted in between a repeating string of numbers
??


Lines 2539 to 2565
27 spins that are the same as lines 1827 to 1853
Lines 2567 to 2575
9 spins that are the same as lines 1855 to 1863


-Xander

After investigating the Macau data further, I've found why the XXVV system appeared to perform so well on this specific sample.   The sample was the one that produced the largest win for the WF3/WF4 system.

It's because there are several repeating strings of data.  The repeating strings of data are highlighted in different colors.  Only the repeating strings seven spins or longer are highlighted. Attached are only the first 3030 spins.  There are likely several shorter strings of repeating numbers.

In short, the original data was very corrupt.  Please note that I do NOT believe that XXVV is responsible for the bad data, and I doubt that he knew it was bad.  The average player would likely not know how to examine the data in order to find the repeating strings and would not know how to measure it's quality.  Such techniques are closely guarded secrets among APs.

  The responsible party was probably the original source of the data or the person that keyed it.

-Caleb



   

I'm sorry Turner, but that's unacceptable.  Please go back and return the money that you have unfairly won, as you will likely not be able to sleep at night.   

Regarding the XXVV W3 and W4.

Of course it has failed, and will continue to fail.  As a professional AP player, I will simply tell you like it really is.  Intuition, feelings, biorhythms, and meditation doesn't help you win.  Physics does.  Cause and effect.
After reading the XXVV thread, I decided that it was time to post some real things that you should look for if you're going to attempt to play on the hot numbers.  And for the record, what you're attempting to do is not really play just hot numbers, you're hoping that there's some kind of bias/dealer effect that will enable you to win in the near term.

1.  Wheel spin direction.  Using a very simple program, you can sort by spin direction.  You can also use the sort function in Excel.  Even though you don't know the spin direction of the online sample, you can still combine every other spin, so that you have one column of numbers for each direction.  When betting, you should have individual numbers (or possibly mini sections) on which to bet for each unique spin direction.

2. Dealer breaks.  Different dealers spin at different wheels speeds, and have different roulette ball preferences.  Since you don't know where they start and stop within the Wiesbaden samples, you're going to be at a disadvantage right from the start.   When you can, note your dealers.  It's best to have two dealers with similar rotor speeds and ball preferences.

3. Track more spins.  Tracking only 21 spins and then playing isn't going to cut it.   Especially if the wheel is alternating spin direction.  That's only 12 spins for each direction!  The simple fact is, the more spins you can write, the more you will learn about the true payoff tendencies of each number on the wheel.  At least track one half of a shift.  It's far too few spins, but it's still much better than tracking for only 21 spins.   By cutting the shift in half, you'll be playing against the same dealers on the second half of the shift.  Shifts are broken down into day, swing, and grave.  You need to know when each shift begins at your casino.  (You should actually track several thousand spins, but most people can't imagine completing such a task).

4. Play only statistically relevant numbers.   Most people on this board have no idea as to how to calculate standard devition and it's not practical at the table, so I'll keep it simple.  Don't play hot numbers unless they have at least two or three more hits than the next hottest numbers.  The larger the spin sample, the bigger that lead gap should be.  Ideally, you'll take into account the location of the weakest numbers or section in relation to the location of the hottest numbers.  You want the weak numbers to be very weak, and the best numbers to be very strong.  Subtract the number of hits for the weakest number(s) or section from the hottest number(s) or section.  Here's the quick "at the table" formula:

(Hot Numbers) - (Weak Numbers) = (Crude Wheel Fitness Test Value)
The higher this value is, the better.  If the value is too low, don't play. 

5. End the play when the playing conditions change.  Playing conditions refer to the wheel speed, ball used, etc.   In the real world of gambling you will have draw downs.  Random losing periods with an edge of only 3 to 5% can exceed 1000 units.  Quitting when the playing conditions change can help dampen the draw downs.  But still expect some big ones, since variance is a double edged sword.   If this is too much for you, then you'll need to find a way to get a bigger edge, or you'll need to start with a bigger bankroll.  If you're the short term tracker, then assume that your edge is very small or likely nonexistent.

6. Money management.  It's really quite simple.  Just bet anywhere from .5 to 1.5% of your bankroll at each spin.  This way your bets increase as you win, and it gives you a real shot at winning some real money, since your initial bets can be much higher than when using an "up as you lose" progression.     Set a win goal.  Nobody is ever happy with just a one unit win.  Grow a pair!  Go for it, until you reach your win goal or until the playing conditions change too much.   When the playing conditions change, quit.  When the playing conditions are stable, bet more.  When the playing conditions are less stable, bet less or quit.  When you bet using this kind of money management, "gaming discipline" and "feelings" are no longer an issue.  They're simply something that other gambler's use as an excuse for not winning.   A loss is a loss.  A win is a win.  When either happen, it's the result of randomness, variance, and procedure, not discipline.

Now a fun test question.  The player has a 6% edge, and plans on playing off and on over a period of several days for a total of 10k spins.   The player's starting bankroll is $1,000.  Which player will likely win the most money, and receive the most attention in the form of sex and love from his/her spouse or friend.  Player 1,2, or 3?

1. The player flat bets $50 every spin on the top numbers.

2. The player bets 1% of his bankroll distributed over his best numbers.  His initial bet is only $10 in total.

3. The player runs an up as you lose progression using a Fibonacci sequence.



If a player would have properly tracked the Macau wheel that has often been referenced within this thread, then the player could have won substantially more money and could have had a much higher edge than the paltry 3 to 5% shown.

Learn to rely on observations, physics, and common sense, not just feelings and intuition.

I realize that this post may upset some forum members.  So in order to help prevent this post from upsetting too many people, and to help soften the blow, I've added a unicorn below. 



                                                                                                                                         /.\
-Xander

QuotePeople seldom discuss the casinos biggest advantage is their wealth vs what's in your pocket...their staying power is a formidable obstacle-RouletteKEY

The amount of money that the casino has doesn't affect whether you win or lose.

In the long run, the biggest obstacle is and always will be the house edge.

QuoteInviting Xander to dinner would have the unfortunate result of all the guests losing their appetites and leaving because he would have deflated the evening like a Led Zeppelin and insulted Chef Ramsey over his poor record at Glasgow Rangers.


Don't take it personally Xander remember the Bayes Mantra.
XXVV

Wow, if I made a comment like that then you'd be demanding that the mods ban me.

Try and stick to the thread XXVV.