2:15AM.  Closing up the restaurant and on the way to the casino with three buddies we'll see what happens.   Promise to post a picture or two in the morning...

Bac shoe the other night:

 
[attachimg=1]

We divided it up into three Sections.  We followed the Sections as they were presented, basically 95% anyways. 

Section A:  Produced a classic strong Player beginning and followed shortly thereafter with a strong Banker.  First F-7 of the shoe.

Section B:  Produced 15 Chop-Chops.  Do not pay attention to the doubles.

Section C:  Produced two F-7s.  Soon as it made that 3rd banker with that one being an F-7, everyone went heavy on the Banker, real heavy!  Counting the one cut to the Players side and the fall-off to the Player the second time, there were 5 good hits on the Banker side. 

Other Notes:  Every single natural for the Players side cut, except for the one just before the 6 Bankers came out at the end of Section A, where the Players made a double.  After a few I urged my comrades to adhere to the, 'Player will most likely cut' presentments, which it was doing.  (When it is repeatedly doing something, follow it, IMO). 

Just playing the chop-chop after Section A, would have produced 16 chops for you and you would have lost only 2 to those doubles. 

Another Board Member said:

"Such aggressive progressions will win till losing all back in one bad stretch. Not wise at all".

I Said:

"You are correct and countless people will no doubt give it all back.

I do not. A few of the people there will not either. Others will no doubt, just fuel for their fire that will wipe them out and cause worse financial harm.

H-Money has finally gotten over it, I do believe. I have written about the subject of real money management method immensely on the board here. Money Management Method is everything.

I live by my one-third, one-third, one-third MMM of my wins application. That has helped my game enormously and I would have to put it at the very top of what is most important, while I'm sitting there thinking what is going to happen with the rest of the shoe or the rest of the session".

Some Background of something I wrote in regards to my position and M.M.M. to get ahead in the game of Baccarat:

"What is Pounce-On-It??

Game On!  There, but not there.  Seconds--Minutes--Hours.  A few hands or numerous hands.  One or two shoes.  Never a long, unlimited time, IMO and my experience.

When it comes--it is the absolute heaven and organismic moments of the game.  If you play with your head down into your hand that is propped up on the table and you expect to lose, or you are playing with a mechanical strategy built up from some kind of criteria of playing those cuts, where as the person is wagering for the opposite side, please skip reading this and just block me on here because we will never see eye-to-eye and you have nothing to learn from me and I have nothing to learn from yourself.

Otherwise, experience it--treasure the pounce on it moments and take advantage of them, because that is the cream and the cherry on top of the cake, within this game.  I emphasis the cream and the cherry big time!

But, and a large but.  Do not live for them or bet only them every time.  Attempting to do so, will break you.  Just like those people that wager every hand with the Fortune 7s, the Panda 8s and the other ones that pay 200:1, etc. You will win and you will lose.  Again, and I have repeatedly said it.  If you keep wagering for something in baccarat you will lose, sometimes the same night and always after a series of playing.  You will never come out ahead unless you play all sides, alternate your wagering, use positive progressive very aggressively and use negative progressions extremely sparingly and more.   

Game on, is a difficult situation to catch all the time, actually IMO, impossible.  Because the game of baccarat is open to interpretation by each of us, we are influenced by many different things, such as:

   Our experience(s)
   Other players
   Dealers
   Our own perceptions
   Our dreams and goals
   Our greed
   Not stopping during a good thing (greed/think we can get more)
   Not stopping during a bad thing (have to get it back, thinking you can)
   Following the fallacy of wrong info and data that will not apply to the
    shoe you are playing, not that it is wrong, just will not apply.

Those, along with others will disallow yourself to 'pounce-on-it' when others are or you very well could have been!

And so many more things for each of us.

Take Friday night for instance.  The Thursday night session I postponed until Friday night because  I had to do something else and I would have been too tired to drive back and open the business in the morning.  My buddy and I went.  Speculation?  Yes.  Hype and talk on the way to the casino?  Sure.  But do we always do what we plan or say we are going to do?  Of course not, the same as an NFL game I can only imagine.

And, as I wrote about and boasted a bit on the board here with the $5k plus win on Friday night playing a total of 4 hands.  Will there always be a '143' F-7 outcome with the same leading up to events?  Hell no!  And I don't expect it to.   But, that one did come around through friendship, playing together and being in the right place at the right time.  Nothing else.  No magic.  However, there is a point here I am getting to.  And that was the 2 following hands!  We 'pounced on it', both my buddy and I with table max wagers on the banker side.  That is the positive side of camaraderie and the pouncing on it at work.  We overpowered the shoe.  Not that we changed it, just overpowered it with our wins, that we would have won $100.00 as easily as we did $2,000.00 per wager.  Our screaming, yelling, clowning around, putting cash on the table for the dealer if she makes an F-7 (dealers keep their own tips at this place) and all that.  That F-7 would have come about anyway, yes.  But the aura changes, the mood gets going, win is in the air, etc.  Even if we were betting for a streak, and a streak comes.  We can do those things on every single hand and when it is time to cut the streak, the streak will end no matter what anyone says or does.  But we can overpower the shoe with the right frame-of-mind.

But, you have to let it go.  As I say, reset and refresh, it is the only way to be successful and have your game ready each time. Experiencing the best and accepting the worst. That is why I am convinced about the smaller buy-ins and the buy-in is 100% risk money.  I do not subscribe to the worthless theory, IMO--of 'loss stop', like - 4 or -6 units and stop.  Senseless, IMO.  I do well with the buy-in as pure 'risk'.  I know overall my wins are countless times greater than my buy-ins.  And as long as I, employ 99.9% of the times use and follow my M.M. system, I will stay ahead--well ahead of the losses baccarat will incur.

We are mature--but you have to have that 'peace' within your self when you lose a buy-in.  You cannot sit there and continue to buy-in repeatedly in the thought, that you will recoup your losses right then and there.  That is the exact reason that my other buddy H-Money lost in excess of $50,000.00 of his own money in a very short period of time.  Even when he won certain sections of his sessions, he would continue and continue to play and eventually lose the win, the buy in and whatever else he had available.  That is the way this game is.  If you don't realize it, play that way and come back in a few months and then maybe learn something?

Like I said, H-Money did not believe me and follow me.  It cost him $50k to $60k of his 'blood sweat and tears' savings.  Welcome to reality, pure 100% reality.

What you do and win within any section of the shoe or the entire shoe, you very well might not be able to do with later or the next session.  Period.  If you believe you can, any casino will welcome you and take care of you in the way of comps and promotions because they know 100% what will happen.

As well, as I have said many times--"What you win doing in one shoe--you will lose in another one and possibly even the same one".  That is why every system that is pre-scheduled and conceived from a criteria that the player waits for a certain event--will ultimately lose more than he wins".

It was said on our board here: "I wonder that most of the players do not progress in knowledge or skill even slightly after wasting decades".

How very true!  Absolutely and without question.  Not only in baccarat, but in so many other aspects of business as well, no different. 

Here, my response.  Something I read a while back, made a copy and shelved.  Fits right in and provides such an insight to many things.

"There is a world of difference between a person who has a big problem and a person who makes a problem big.  For several years I would do between 20 and 30 hours of counseling a week.  I soon discovered that the people who came to see me were not necessarily the ones who had the most problems.  They were the ones who were problem conscious and found their difficulties stressful.  Naive at first, I would try to fix their problems, only to discover that they would go out and find others.

A study of three hundred highly successful people, people like Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Helen Keller, Winston Churchill, Albert Schweitzer, Mahatma Gandhi, and Albert Einstein, reveals that one-fourth had handicaps, such as blindness, deafness or crippled limbs.  Three-fourths had either been born into poverty, came from broken homes, or at least came from exceedingly tense or disturbed situations. 

Why did the achievers overcome problems, while millions and millions are overwhelmed by theirs?  They refused to hold on to the common excuses for failure.  They turned their stumbling blocks into stepping-stones.  They realized they could not determine every circumstance in life or whatever it was they were attempting to get done, but they could determine their choice of attitude toward every circumstance.

The Los Angeles Times recently ran this quote:  "If you can smile whenever anything goes wrong, you are either a nitwit or a repairman."  I would add: or a leader in the making--one who realizes that the only problem you have is the one you allow to be a problem because of your wrong reaction to it.  Problems can stop you temporarily.  You are the only one who can do it permanently."

Something I wrote a while back, IMO fits in here and playing along side others at the table.

Conflict has a lot to do with playing baccarat in my opinion.  Because, conflict will change your frame-of-mind and how you wager with or without your conscious thought.  And that is not good for you.  Be aware of conflict and how and why it comes about.

Conflict is the result of events, usually events that went the opposite way you wanted them to go or if you were remaining neutral but had a feeling it was going to be a result, and that result came about and others at the table began to proper nicely, conflict can also come.  Be aware.

Conflict:  Events, Comments, Situations.  The various things that lead to those three and usually opposite of what you desired or spot-on, but you were not wagering at all or cut way down in the amount of wager.

Perceived Conflict/Felt Conflict:  The perceived conflict is the logical and factual events which are based around the conflict itself.  In other words, whatever lead up to the exact point of the event.  The felt conflict is your feelings, your hostility, your hurt and other feelings when you see those winnings given to your table-mates whether you like them or not.

Factual Reaction:  Aggression, Competition, Debate, Withdrawal, Tilt.  They all happen and if you do not think so, you better take your time, look at yourself and realize they do.  Fix the problems and play better without a doubt.  We are dealing with lost money or money not rightfully earned here and it gets emotional, admit it or not.  Once you do, you can fix it for the most part.  I have narrowed it down to 5 parts at the baccarat table. 

Aggression

Competition

Debate

Withdrawal

Tilt

Agreement or Defeat:  We tend to enter into agreement with others that we do or even do not normally agree with at the table, depending on how they are doing at various times.  Follow your own thoughts, rules, beliefs, protocols, etc., sometimes win everything you touch, and other times lose.  Follow others that are winning or going against them when they are losing, works as well sometimes and other times it blows up in your face.  And that is exactly why following or going against someone else is disaster waiting to happen.  Because, IMO you will blame them and not yourself.  You will blame them for their mistakes and that event will launch you even further into frustration and confusion.  So be careful and realize when camaraderie and team-work is beneficial.  If you must ask, you will not use it the correct way anyway.  Using it as a crutch or a catch-all, is not the proper way.

Putting it all Together:  Realize what is happening, why you are making the decisions you are.  Are those decision from the cards, the shoe, the events themselves?  Or, are they from the results you have deduced down from the other people there playing at the table?  Huge difference and huge consequences will come about.  I promise you that.  Learn how and why you do things at the table, you will help yourself to better, clearer decisions and being better focused and dealing with the events as they should be. 

Quote from: Albalaha on January 19, 2020, 07:53:46 AM
        That is what I want to know from the admin. How this shoe generated 10x to 30x of bankroll. What was an average person's bankroll etc? Interesting to read.

There were over 10 people playing.  At least 8 of the people did extremely well and yes, between 10 to 30 times their buy-ins.  $1,000.00 to $2,000.00 most.  A few at $500.00 to $800.00 or so.  A couple at the $2,500.00 to $3,000.00 buy-in range.  Like I said, at least one got wiped out and another possibly was even, got frustrated and walked, no better than even.

We all followed the player side heavy in the beginning.  Once again, I have written about just that and posted numerous pictures of B&M boards showing just that, especially in the beginning.  As well the 0-1-2-3 LOW TIES which usually reflects the shoe presentments holding steady, no matter what the shoe was producing.  And it did to a 'T' with that shoe as well.

Most of these people were at $200.00 to $1,000.00 a hand.  Up to Section B, where the 2nd small streak of Players that ended with a Tie, most of us realized right at 12 winning wagers, with a few losses.  I would say, almost all of us were at, as an example, $400.00 and win, next wager would be $800 with the full parlay and win, then put the $400.00 back in the buy-in stack and wager one more time $800.00 to $1,000.00 and win and then back down to whatever each one's level was. 

Another great shot with winning in this shoe was in Section C, we all went for the twos as well.  We got every one of them and when it fell off on the 7th one, we stopped with the twos. 

Most of us hit the F-7 with at least a quarter out there on the 10th and 11th hands,  I have cited and written about F-7s and what I see as their predominant presentments in relation to appearing in certain numbers and because of a heavy or dominant section or streak of Players winning, etc.

F-7 came again mid-way.  I have said so many times reference the F-7 if it is early enough and low ties and Player heavy, etc., 1 or 2 will almost always produce a 3rd.  Likewise, a 3rd with the same situations presenting themselves and turning Banker heavy or equaling out anyways, with generally produce a 4th and 5th.  And we all went heavy on F-7s, right at the end of Section C where the chop started for the 3 times, especially when it went 4 with that first Player presentment that turned into a double Player where that line is in the start of Section D.

Player side had a much larger amount of natural presentments early on and as well, almost every hand that was not a natural for the Player, their 3rd card either brought the Player side up to an 8 or a 9 and if that did not happen and say the Player had a 6, the Banker's 3rd card almost reduced them every single time. It was not a time or two, it was repetitive, we saw it and followed it.  It continued so we followed, huge difference in not predicting, etc., etc.   

We also hit those 2nd line Players heavy and stopped because we saw every single Player natural win would cut to the Bankers side after that second streak of Players that cut with that 2nd tie, some went heavy for just that reason and some wagered Banker with a smaller amount.  Either way, we continued the win.
 

Finally, the camaraderie and the heads played together, old school style, rather than the always wagering for the 'CUT' type of player.  Oh yeah, there was 2 players that continually played for the CUT and one got wiped out and the other walked almost even, everyone else made 10-to-30 fold their buy ins. 

Here was the board almost at the end of the shoe. 

[attachimg=1]

I tried to edit the picture but the tablet I am on is bad with the colors.  I tired, sorry they are not standing out bright.  Anyway, I circled some of the things we all agreed on at the time.  (I have cruised and read some of the Bac ideas and stories on other sites and they are all of the beginner and fallacy type of wagering to the 1,000,000th power!  We do not play that way and sorry for the non-believers and the constant challengers, but the way to profitably play Bac is more old-school and with risk capital that is a small percentage of one's bankroll as I have defined in another thread, sorry---but that is the only real comfortable and long-term way to capitalize on this game).

Bead Plate.  Look at the plate, I tried to circle the ones we all agreed on and the ones where almost all of our wagers were heavy, positively progressed and we won almost every one of those. 

The first Sections.  9 Bankers Vs. 23 Players.  There were a few people that believe the Bankers will always prevail thought school, just wager Bankers and you will win long term.  Complete horse garbage!  For those that did, they would have been lucky to make up their losses in the remaining Sections.  9 Bankers/23 Players, then onward to 22 Bankers Vs. 14 Players. 

F-7s.  5 Total in this shoe.  Hands 10 and 11.  Back to back.  Notice those were immediately after a Natural 9 Players which most of the time the F-7 does appear after a strong short burst of Players as I have mentioned and wrote about numerous times.  A fact.  3rd F7 was Hand 36 after another Natural Player 9.  4th and 5th F7s.  Amazing, but right there, look.  back to back once again after another Natural Player 9.

LOW TIES 0-1-2-3-4.  I have written about this countless times.  A fact.  Low ties tends to allow the shoe presentments to clump up strong, no matter if the clumping is streaks of repeats, naturals CUT, Chop Chop, 1's and 2's, etc., etc., and so on.  Find the threads and articles I have written, learn and profit. 

There are plenty of other things within this shoe, but you know what, I am going to quote another member here:  "....... I see no progress at all on any of the forums these days towards bettering our chances to win. People either gave up on this or a few are busy in churning old school proven failure ideas. Whenever I come up with some innovation and feel like discussing to members here, I see no progress and it feels like talking to wall here. Other forums have more chit chat but many members are foul-mouth and there is no attempt to control that by admins. This forum is the most disciplined one but apart from the admin himself, asymbac, Victor and myself nobody is even writing a single post for months".

I do feel like I am talking to a wall many times as wall, in fact--greater than 'many times'.  The new school way of high tech, score boarding, CUTS, and all that, etc., etc. and as well, the chastising and humiliation drama with the foul mouth drama queens that is so blatantly obvious as a standard.  Most thought or claimed it was just here, but a short cruise around the internet gambling forums, LOL--pretty much mainstream and almost all the same exact players/members.    

You've said a lot in your last post and quite a bit of it is spot on and completely and brutally the honest truth. A few of the points in it were very individualistic, which is what the game of baccarat actually is, like lots of things in all of our lives.

You have inspired me to write something that I'll get started on tomorrow, which it is currently 4:30 a.m. and I just closed the restaurant about three hours ago and had an intense 3-hour discussion with two very serious long-term baccarat players, that happened to be staying overnight because I've held them so long at the restaurant.

I'll outline it in a separate thread, thanks.

Basic of the Basics

Bank Roll: The Bank Roll a person maintains is, that which he borrows his Buy-ins from.  The Bank Roll is the total group of money that the player has set-aside for gambling. A person can have one or more Bank Rolls for various purposes.  Myself, I have a Bank Roll for Las Vegas or Atlantic City when I go on a destination venture.  I have another Bank Roll for the local area casinos.

Buy In:  The Buy-in is the amount of money the person buys in with for a particular gaming session.  IMO, through experience and knowledge, I would earmark 5% of my Bank Roll for a max Buy-in.  Example.  $10,000.00 Bank Roll would equate to a $500.00 Buy-in.  At times I might go as high as 10% Buy-in, but I do not believe I would ever go higher than that now.

Wins must replenish the Bank Roll and remove the Buy-in from the table and replace the Buy-in into the Bank Roll or at least hold off the table with no re-buying in if the current chip level is lost. 

Buy-ins must be viewed as total risk capital, IMO.  A Buy-in is played until wins are realized or the Buy-in is lost. 

A certain amount of win money has to be pre-determined in the persons mind in order to apply the 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd I have written about and preached about.  The willpower, consciousness and non-tilt has to be constantly remembered can come about and avoided or at least be able to realize it/those are present and be able to walk away before the hurt starts.

Positive progressions must be used when the win(s) start. 

Explore and know what my 1 + 4 Side Parlay Wager is and how it is employed and attempted.  It is a powerful and very profitable tool, IMO. 

Know what your real Level & Plateau is.  Realize when you are outside of it and use it to your advantage. 

Example on a good Money Management Method.  Buy-in with $1,000.00.  Get up $2,200.00 in win money.  Total in front of you $3,200.00.  Remove $1,000.00 from the table and secure with no chance to use again.  The remaining $2,200.00 is split up to $700.00, $700.00 and $800.00.  $700.00 is also secured without any chance of re-buying in with that amount.  The second $700.00 is held in reserve for a possible re-buyin amount if you deem desirous.  And the $800.00 is played with as your current Buy-in and stack in order to win additional money and reapply the 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, etc. 

Figures above are examples.    

Yes Lung, Terry Fator is still at The Mirage as far as I know, he has his own theater in the rear of the place.  Also, IMO, the Beatles LOVE show is among the tops of the tops, seen it twice, last time was Asian New Year Week in Feb of 2017 I believe.  The LOVE show has the main theater at The Mirage. 

On a side note, The Mirage was one of the greatest Bac rooms there IMO.  In the rear of the casino they had the Bac room set up with about 15 tables or so up front, the 2 large full 14 seat player/3 dealer tables (old school style where the players were able to hold the shoe and deal the card or choose Macau/Midi style) all the private rooms, the small cashier's counter only for the bac room which was fantastic and easy for everything to transact, etc., then in the back the restrooms, lounges and the hot food snack room, etc.  But I do know they were going to merge that with the regular high-limit room and the larger slot high limit which was right next to it as you were facing the rear--towards the right side. 

I played for years at The Mirage, usually staying at The Bellagio or across at Planet Hollywood and even before it was PH, when it was Aladdin Casino.  PH is Caesar's, so staying at one property and putting time in at any other property could be a problem, although some hosts did not love that, but if you had an old school host and was there a while under his role call, never a problem.  We used to like PH because of the attached 300 store plus all the countless restaurants within the attached shopping mall to the rear of the property.  Their bac action at PH was not the best, only a few tables.  But it is not part of the MGM brand, so it was all good. 

This spring time or summer time I will go as far as to say I can devote one week and I think we should meet in Las Vegas and I'll book the shows and some restaurants and if I can't get a comp for them I will pay for them.

One thing I always do every time I go to Vegas is go to, www.Sunbuggy.Com.

We should set up a week of scheduling and yes I'm posting some pictures.  Let's do this it's time.

Drive ahead, keep going, make yourself happy, take care of your family and your loved ones and watch your health. Keep up all the good work wherever you go.

Although I must say, when I scan the other boards there is lots and lots and lots of drama and all the super active threads are more about soap opera conducted by the drama queens and kings and of a personal nature rather than of the casino nature of any type of value to anyone other than sheer entertainment purposes of watching back alley fights.

Maybe I'm looking in the wrong places, but I do scan the major boards and that's about all I see. I try to focus and sometimes I go sideways and I apologize but I also in some ways like a little social interaction that we used to have. But of course I've explained why people were moderated and which ones were moderated.

But best of luck to you and I look forward to anything you ever want to add.

ALRELAX/Glen.

Nothing to do with systemic scheduling, simplified or statistical wagering.

It is recognizing and capitalizing on what the shoe is presenting. Period.

If you are looking and wagering for a certain event, you are then entering prediction, fallacy and hope, falling complete prey to the casino.

You have to realize you can only capitalize on certain sections that will be defined by certain turning points. You cannot and will not change what is waiting to be presented by applying any type of prediction, vision, statistics or results from testing. And I do mean any form of any of those.

You cannot predict what is going to happen or not happen, you can only assume. However you can wager on the winning side with force and capitalizing extremely quick on being correct. But you can only do this for a short period of time and within a certain section. You cannot and will not continuously do it shoe after shoe or even throughout complete shoes, on any type of near consistent and  frequent basis.

Key Points of Good Money Management Method in Baccarat

First and Foremost.  You have to govern yourself by Levels & Plateaus, that you are in.  Meaning.  Wagering and staying within your own Level and Plateau.  This is a MUST!  Figure it out, find it out, use it to your advantage.  It works.  I have written about it in detail, it is on this board. 

Develop a Bank Roll.  Understand that your Bankroll is different than your Buy-in.  Your Buy-in is a small section of your Bankroll.  Again, part of your Level & Plateau.  But, IMO your Buy-in should be no greater than 10% at the most extreme of your Bankroll. 

Replenish your Bankroll at the earliest possible time, like clockwork, without excuses or exceptions.  None, zero. 

Do not fall into the extremely hurtful, detrimental, not an advantage in the world, etc., belief that you build your Bankroll continually with win money and play larger and larger and greater and greater.  Every single case of that led the Bankroll holder to bust. 

Replenish your Bankroll with win money.  Do not apply all your win money to it.  Use win money for other things outside of Bankroll and gambling, etc. 

Always employ the 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd with your win money as I have also written and detailed about. 

Understand that Buy-in is strictly risk capital and you are looking for capitalizing on presentments.  Nothing else.  All personal feelings and scheduled wagers need to be shelved and used extremely sporadic, the exact same as employing beliefs of wagering with or against someone because of what they are doing or not doing with their wagers, etc. 

Employ 1-3-2-6 or 1-3-2-4 or 1-3-4-8 positive progressions, if you are looking to do what the extremely disciplined players proved greater success with over the years, playing a bit more aggressive within shorter term sections, etc.

If you are trying to figure out where you want to go and what you want to be doing in gambling, you can not possibly get there if you do not understand where you are today and what you truly experienced and how it actually happened.

Once you do, than you can use it with advantages.