I had a PM and I was actually congratulated on this past article I wrote.  LOL.  But I decided to bump it.  It is funny with the comment by Jimske how this board is dead, correct.  But also how hundreds come on to read and I watch them and run IP addresses and LOL, funny who lots of them are, LOL!  But anyways, lots of guests and few post.  Again, LOL............................

Well, here we are, another Superbowl.  2019.

First off, I detest New England 100%.  I am from the Northeast, NYC/New Jersey born NYC and most of my life in the area or in NYC and New Jersey.  I am a Jets, Eagles and Vikings fan for the longest. 

I used to be a heavy NFL and Collage football bettor.  Did great for the longest time and stopped it all when I left New Jersey 2002 for the Midwest.

I placed on NFL wager this season a couple of weeks ago in New England and made it with the point spread, almost did not, just squeezed by.  If they were the favorites, I would have lost the wager. 

Everyone I talk to about the Superbowl is saying New England will never win.  I disagree.  Because Brady always the highest majority of the time is spot the frick on!  He is totally the go to with the know how and does stuff that is expected but the other team is counting on him to chicken out.  IMO.

My buddy, the retired NYC cop out here near me, just took his whole year of baccarat winnings, about $20,000.00 and put it all on New England as well.  I am wagering New England, not the over-under or anything else.  I am not putting life changing sums or anything of the like.

I do wholeheartedly believe that the bookies convince the press what to say and how to say it.  The last article I read last night was that it is a no brainer and the Rams will score high and walk away with it.

Seriously?  IMO and IMO only, this will be a close match, New England will win and the books want everyone to go high and with the Rams, because that most likely will not happen. 

As we all know in sports, it is not always the most talented or experienced or the best that does win.  There are numerous factors, strategy and team work that influences and changes the game and the outcome, each time.  And that is the problem with picking the winners beforehand.

Had to post this, what the heck?

Being raised in South Florida during the Miami Vice Days as it was labeled, I got a quick out of this building the other day here in the Midwest!

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Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 29, 2019, 03:21:23 AM
High stakes players willing to hear strategic suggestions and giving the mentor a cut on their profits simply want to get more winning hands than losing ones.
They do not give a fk about progressions, stop losses or MM issues.
They mainly like to adopt a wise flat betting strategy as they know that at worst they won't lose more than math expected (minus the huge comps they are entitled to get or deals on losses made with the casino).
A luxury almost no one bac player in the world would think about.

Thus only a proper bet selection might have the best of the game by 1 trillion of certainty.

There's no way a math disadvantage could be overcome by "human" countermeasures like MM, stop losses and progressions: such are just human illusory worthless tools.

If our plan is properly set up, the more we'll play the more we'll win.

Period.

as. 

You are pretty spot on, bit they add enormously to the visualize and the illusion players convince themselves of, experienced or inexperienced, most all use those things like MM, Progressions and all the rest as justifications and way outs, they just look at them the wrong way IMO.

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 26, 2019, 09:16:23 PM

No. Prediction is impossible. All I can do is get into synchronization of when my guesses are working. After more than a decade quarreling with Caleb/General/Snowman/Xander/Dr Nobody/etc... I have tried to make it clear that I can't predict any future outcomes. Accept perhaps for this prediction. He will continue to gather his sycophant army to record spins from wheels for him from all over the world. It's nothing less than a Cult following.

Excellent. Reality. Realization. Correct Mark.

I'm a little unintelligent about following technology and relationship from it in gambling, you guys know my position.  And I'm not being a wise-behind and I'm not insinuating any type of derogatory statement here Mark.

How does one know when they sit down at the table where they fit in, in those type of charts?  Such as when you look at a weather chart with the time day you know at 11am what temperature or snowfall or precipitation or Sunshine it is going to be by the estimated published rate and you compare that to the time of day it currently is. I understand that, but how do you do that with a gambling chart?

You are both correct in many ways.  Problem with reading, researching, implementing, and all that is we each interpret and use it all in different ways the author was or we merge it all along with other things that have worked or not performed well for each of us in our own past experiences. 

Hence, mixing a chemical that should not be mixed with another and all that.  Same basis for problems.

I have spent months working on 5 in depth articles relating to actual play and the reasons why, just most all players never see past the score board at stuff like 1's and 2's are more frequent than everything else type of strategies, and like Jimske points out, most no one cares, believes or has interest in reading much more than a paragraph or two.  LOL, but very true. 

Possibly that is why Jay Silva and people like that can take online republished bac games, voice over and talk a carnival type of showmanship and sell intangible systems making a fortune.  Etc., Etc., etc.

Major problem #1 in player at baccarat is, almost no one understands visualization and how it effects you with the game.  As well as false positives running a close 2nd.  All IMO and unproven and non-certified and undocumented 35 years plus of playing in casinos.

H money returns tomorrow I'll write about what happened last night need to get some sleep I will write tomorrow like I said H money returns.............

Paid membership is the serious people I don't care if it's $10 a month or $100 a month or $1,000 a month!!  I belong to many Technical and professional organizations that they all,  every single one of them charges money for computer access journals, phone consultations, chat assistance and this is all in technical non-gambling stuff and those are the real people in the respective field, anything else does not work.

I'm sorry, in my own opinion

Paying keeps everything honest and real, it keeps the real people real and the fake people off to the side I'm sorry that's my two cents.   I'm not a systems junkie I'm giving you the reality end of it.

Great job.

Back in the 90s to early 2000s. I used to bet NFL and college every week.  Such memories!

I guess after all these years of playing baccarat, I just never witnessed or repeatedly saw the same things of any type winning even close to half (50%) of the times a player employs something of a set schedule/plan type of wagering. 

Meaning, follow something, against any certain thing, wager for the cut after 2 of something, every time there is a 4 in a row then wager for the opposite side, etc., etc., etc. 

On the flip side, you will get computer people and they will pick something, for example, let us say wagering for the opposite side after a 3 in a row.  They will run that example/wager for 100,000 times or 1,000,000 times or 1,000 shoes which would be 80,000 hands or so.  Say they receive a 70% hit rate.  What assures that hit rate will be deduced down, to a series of 3 or 5 or 7 shoes, the same amount of shoes that the player sits down to gamble at using that 70% return system that was tested by the computer person?

I witness this type of stuff each and every casino visit these days.  When it works and the player wins, all it seems to do is fuel and motivate that player and others around him for the furtherance of the same type of wager.  Then it fails, almost each and every time, like he might win with that scheduled wager 2 or 3 times out of 10 or whatever the ratio might be. 

On the other hand, the player that attempts those kind of wagers just about always seems to wager a small amount as a test or a safe bet, then after he wins (if he does) he parlays and/or stacks it up on another one and another one.  Then the failure and/or the variance sets in the highest amount of the times.  I do not understand why a player would not throw say $500 or $1,000 out there for one time wagering and if won, back down to his norm of $50 or $100? 

At the casino the other night.  Finished one shoe with super heavy Players.  (I outlined it within another thread on the board here)  A guy sits down, well known among the players and dealers of the casino.  It is the very ending of the shoe and he comments as to how much money he would have made wagering on this this very shoe.  (Just about what almost all players say when they walk into the baccarat room at the B&M casino anyways, not really out of the ordinary).

Buys in for $2,000.00.  Waits until the shuffle and the new shoe is set up.  This is the shoe with the 10 Bankers out of the gate, one Player and then another 4 or 5 or so Bankers.  He starts out $250.00 on the first wager with the Banker side.  Wins and throws in $400.00 or $450 on the Players side.  Losses.  Wagers the Players side for like the next 3 wagers for about $300.00 to $500.00 a bet.  Losses every single one, while the entire table is wagering Banker of course.  He says out loud, "has to cut to the Players, especially being the beginning of the shoe".  Losses everything in front of him and buys in again with another $2,000.00.  Continues on the Players side and just about losses it all once again by the time the first 10 Bankers come out. 

He switches to Bankers like the last 2 hands, and wins the 9th and the 10th Banker hands.  He is sitting with about $1,500.00 or so at this point.  He losses it all on the next 4 Bankers as he kept reciting how the Players side was due to catch up and equal the Banker side. 

I cringe when I see this stuff.  I did not say anything to him as I really did not know him, just seen him a bunch of times.  But the believe and the wagering of people that think and figure out the game in their mind is so overwhemling! 

IMO, this style and these believes came on around 2000ish or so, after the introduction of the Midi/Macau style tables with the removal of the big 14 player and 3 dealer orginal baccarat tables in most all casinos that had baccarat.  Coupled with the internet really coming on and social media all combined, etc., etc. 

You know, I was talking with a couple dealers at a few different casinos that have been around since the 80's and the 90's.  Every one of them agrees, during the past 10 plus years they have not seen the regular sight that used to exist on a regular basis at the baccarat tables.  That is, where the dealer's bank rack would get emptied by the players when there were the long streaks and long alternating chops, where the entire table would band together with huge motivation and commaraderie., etc.  While the occasional player will still win $25,000.00 or even $50,000.00 over a shoe or two or three, the quick and 10-20 hand empting of the dealer's rack just is not seen any longer. 

What is the sad part, all the great times and sections that really do present themselves at the baccarat tables now or either not capitilized on or used as an attempted make up of immediate losses that the players just incurred to fuel themselves for another shoe or two.  Sad but really the truth and reality in its pure raw form.

If you have not played in a B&M casino baccarat prior to 2000 or the late 1990's, you have no idea what used to happen and the huge wins as compared to todays losses and almost non capitalized upon great sections and presentments.  I see much more wagering on the cut or the opposite sides as to what the shoe is presenting than I do any continued streak or even following an alternating chop.  Why, I do not know, but 100% fact. 

Have you ever really managed your money and gave yourself the advantage with win money to turn it into larger sums at the table when you were playing?

I am not talking about wagering one or two units out of 20 units and stopping when you hit a 5 unit loss or a 5 unit win.  All that will do, 100% of the times is grind you down sooner or later, period, simple as that.  If you do not belief me, just do it and report back. 

But like I said, really give yoruself an advantage and the fuel to smack the casino with their own money you just won?  Or do you just replace your losses and call that gambling and move on?

My buy in is my risk money and that is part of a bank roll.  It is my risk capital I attmept to win with and when I win, my bak roll is replenished if it was down and then i move on to really win.  I have wrote enough here that all people know I have levels and plateaus that are vital to stay at and not gamble to always be gambling larger and larger, bigger and bigger, etc.

I have found the 3 biggest things in Money Management that give me huge advantages are the following:

1)  A system of 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd management of my wins.  Which I have wrote about.  In brief that means, I take 1/3rd of a certain amount of win money at a certain time and put it into my buy in stack of chips, I take another 1/3rd of the win money and save it in a pocket for a possible re buy in if i feel the urge and the action is there after a certain amoutn of time that session when i lose.  I take the remaining 1/3rd of the win money and put it away and will not touch it no matter what, and that last 1/3rd would be equal or greater than the buy in I currently had at risk and in play;

2)  Postive progressions of some type when winning.  1-3-2-6 or something else.  Or, one initial wager followed by 2 parlays and then 3 pull downs and then a large 7th or 8th wager at some point with a pull down and a division of the 1/3rd MM system above.  Then to a larger inital wager bet and a pull down and saving of any wins from that wager;

3)  The employing of my (1 + 4 Side Parlay Wager) that can prove to be extremely profitable with huge returns.  Not be be confused or classified with my intiial wager, no matetr if that initial, regualr or steady wager is flat betting, progression or whatever it is.  A (1 + 4 Side Parlay Wager) of mine is a separate wager no matter what I wagered it on.  Say I won $500.00.  I might be wagering $100 or $150 on something.  Out of that $500.00, I might allocate $300.00 for 4 attempts to make a successful (1 + 4 Side Parlay Wager) be successful.  Example.  4 attempts at $75.00 no matter what I am wagering in or on something else.  The Side Parlay is never my main or only wager for many reasons and factors.  It is strictly on the side.  $75.00 and parlay the wins 4 times and then out with that.  That money or win will never touch my buy in, it is strictly win and hold.  If not I lost $300.00 of a previous win.  $75.00 with 4 attempts as I said.  $75.00 first wager.  $150.00 for the 2nd.  $300.00 for the 3rd.  $600.00 for the 4th.  $1,200.00 for the 5th.  That is 1 + 4 parlays.  The result would be a profit of $2,400.00.  I give myself 4 complete chances on the casino to accomplish that with the $300.00 of previous win money, rather than throwing that part of a previous win (the $300 into my pocket or my buy in stack, etc.).  With a $600.00 (1 + 4 Side Parlay Wager) chance, I do the following. 1st wager of $150.00.  2nd wager of $300.00.  3rd wager of $600.00.  4th wager of $1,200.00.  5th wager of $2,400.00. 

So go ahead and believe that a 3 or a 5 unit stop loss and coupled with a 3 or a 5 or even a 10 unit stop win with the grind of $10.00 or $20.00 or even a $25.00 flat bet will allow you to be a successful gambler.  I laugh until my stomach hurts when I read the gist of so many Money Management Systems that people claim allow them to employ a stop loss or a stop win and how successful they are. 

Well Santa is almost here!  Yep another year long gone.....................

I am with my little 6 year old boy for the week.  Got up here last night, no snow on the ground here in the Twin Cities, wow---what a change! 

So I bring all his presents and we get to where we are staying.  My little boy says, 'Daddy, I want Christmas tonight because  I am inpatient, sorry'.  LOL, where did he get that one from?

He tells me,'Daddy I know there is no Santa because he is past away'.  I told him that is not true, Santa always lives and will always be around.  He says that he knows better.  I told him, nope sorry Santa lives in spirit and soul, always always always.

So he opens all his presents and then we went swimming, hot tub and he wanted a 'happy meal' from McDonalds.  So we went and got that.  Just before he went to sleep he asked me, 'Daddy are you sure about Santa', and I said yes.  He looked at me like a baccarat dealer that flips a Natural 9 to my hand of a Natural 8 when no one is on the side of the N-9 and there was plenty of tip wager out there for the dealer.

Oh well.  Merry Christmas and all that!  I love all you guys, even some of the banned ones and the ones that won't come back to our site here and are fighting and causing drama elsewhere. 

Alrealx.  Glen.