I appreciate wholeheartedly the time you took to type and post that Lugi. 

I normally do not hold grudges.  I have owned businesses from NYC brothels, to massages parlors, two Midtown Manhattan restaurants, to heavy wrecker service with name branded gas stations on the interstate highway ramps with tractor trailer garages and hazardous materials spill clean up business. I butted heads with a lot tougher and a lot meaner with expensive outcomes, LOL.   I am on to my most favorite business, a restaurant and bar with a state gaming license in fact.  I have had my share of ups and downs and clowns, should I say--in business.  I have gambled in high limit rooms, every single one in Atlantic City, Connecticut, Florida and lots of the Midwest, and at least a solid 70% in Vegas and Southern California, over the many years I have played.

Although I have squared off and had my share of pissing matches, I never would have started this thread or brought it up if Keith did not attempt to have me criminally charged and arrested for threatening him, when all I did in reality was text him 3 or 4 times on his published cell phone number, in the attempt to remove 5 copy and pasted posts I put on his public forum at the invite of one of his members. 

Anyway, I detest the man for his falseness, his outright egotistic personality and his outright lies and deceit.  He preaches what he stands for and a man will always act and sell himself for what he stands for, period. 

Thanks again for the time you took to write what you think. 

Quote from: CT70 on April 16, 2019, 03:42:20 PM
Luigi, you are correct in that in Baccarat, the overall (PA)player advantage over millions of hands is close to 50%. I will give you that. However, with all due respect, that statistic is not valid for the shoe that?s in front of you now. The shoe in front of you is unique. You will not beat it using the historical statistics of the game.
Baccarat is all about ?determining the length of events and their frequency of occurrence, thru use of statistics?. Once you can do that WITHOUT using a progression (meaning by flat betting only) you can become a consistent winner. That takes years to accomplish. Studying thousands of screenshots etc. The dedication required is no less than what an Olympic medalist would have to go thru to win a medal. Only a hand full of people can do it and most people would put what?s required in the ?too hard? basket. Most would rather just play with an outrageous negative progression to compensate for their inferior hit rate (HR), while hoping that their wins outnumber their losses.
I know you probably think I?m full of stuff because you?ve never witnessed or met a consistent player that can do what I just said. That?s ok, I?m not offended.
All I?m saying is that it is doable. The question is how many of you will put in the hard yards to get there? How many even have the time? All the ones I know are over age 60. It seems that?s when they have the time to really study the game.

I have re-read this again, twice.  And more and more, I find your words very familiar and very realistic. 

Truly you have been around the block, as that proverbial saying goes. 

Thanks for posting!  Alrelax/Glen

Yes, CT70 you are correct in many ways and many ways a seasoned bac player IMO comes to doom himself.


Something I wrote a while back, most probably never read it or seen it?:


"The harder and longer one plays, the more callous and laziness that person becomes to the important info 'signs' trends and values of the sections within each shoe.  Weather that is the total number of hours and shoes for the session or the number of years of experience.   Same as most workers say for example on a construction site.  The newer workers are seemingly alert, watching everything, everywhere, all the time.  Never letting their guard down, etc.  Super CAREFUL and METICULOUS (!!!!!!!!!!!) with all capital letter and exclamation points after.  As the months and years roll ahead, that same person pays less attention and has noticeably less concern for his surroundings.  Although he is now experienced and seasoned, he opens himself up to the immediate and surrounding hazards and obstacles he once was worried about, was always conscious about, avoided and stressed over.   Eventually there came a turning point where most of those things went into his subconscious.  In fact, so many become a bit lazy as well.  By the proper definition of the word 'lazy' as in physically lacking output, etc., I am not referring to that.  But what just happened with this type of worker, is he just became a bit hard-headed, egotistic and in fact, a bit overconfident.  Probably not much different than the highest majority of all bac players that have 'been there and done all that', as the saying goes.  And those very same seasoned players I am referring to, will wager 12 times against a Banker run of 15 because of the things I laid out.  Then those exact same seasoned players, will win their 16th hand which is the 'cut' to the other side they were so adamantly convinced was going to happen 13 hands ago, they won far less than even because of table limits or their own bank roll.  Of course they also missed the 12 streak of the other side immediately coming out next only because, "that is so rare and cannot happen"."

I guess I am not a scientist, a mathematician or a statistician analyst. 

With that said, and maybe the bulk of you are one of those 3 or all of them together?  I vividly see faces that lose at the baccarat table with their mouths open, their fists clinched, their mouths uttering words of numerous 4 letters words beginning with (F), (S), (C), and the 5 letter one with (B), etc., all the time.  I know the players and I know what they wager on, and like I just posted, a bit more in detail in another thread, I cannot pursue the scheduled wagering method that is proven to Win more than it loses by documented measurable approaches by proven results from a huge number of plays discovering that proverbial bias that I can exploit for certain wins, each and every time or even a number that is in excess of 50% of the plays I wager on.  It does not exist in the way you are seeking. 

Winning and losing at baccarat is far past the Luck of the Draw.  Same as going to the corner gas station.  You can go at 6:30 am when it is classically busy with everyone getting their gas, their bakery items, their cigarettes, using the restroom and assorted other things at a busy gas/c store local or highway place versus going at 2:20 in the afternoon or say at 11Pm at night.  However, I went the other night at 11:30 PM on a weekday and usually never busy at all.  Of course their was a house husband there buying all sorts of things with several problems and the cashier was inexperienced and it took the other 2 employees present a solid 5 minutes to straighten it all out while I stood there and tapped my foot on the floor being stuck, because I already pumped my gas without paying and I promised my little boy an Apple prepaid card that I had to get for his waking up in the morning that was a few hours away, and I choose that time to avoid the several minute wait in the early morning on the way to open my store, etc.  That could happen once out of 10 or once out of 100 times or possible could happen three out of three times?  And the alternative is, going at another prime time when I could be in or out within seconds or I could be stuck for twice as long as the off prime time took me with added aggravation I choose to avoid by a calculated decision that just did not pan out.  Kind of the same at baccarat, just dependent on variable factors that will exist that you do not know until you are in midst of them and if you compile, focus, deduce, add, look back on experience, change up your past results, and a whole host of other things, you might just get those four $2,000.00 wagers correct and those eight $200.00 wagers wrong, losing more wagers than you won but walking away with $6,400.00 of casino cash with your $2,500.00 buy in, for example. 

It is April!  The temperatures straightened out and the past several days 99% of all the snow melted and of course flooding came and washed out interstate highways and overflowing rivers and a few towns had to be evacuated, but this morning, here is what we woke up to:


[attachimg=1]

Let me clarify a bit more.  H-Money does blacks out, plainly blacks out at the table.  On the surface he is conscious of course, but he is blacked out in my opinion.  He is oblivious to reality.  Reality is where you need to constantly check into every min or two at the very most.  The game is not reality, the game is fantasy.  It is fantasy because it requires nothing but money to survive in it.  The same as a business without good service, product or real meaning.  Like having a storefront, an office with all the amenities, a showroom with no product or services.  And you believe as long as you are there to man it all, you will perpetually make money and have a shot at the forthcoming rainbow of everything.  Your rent, your taxes, your phones, your cable and internet, your coffee service, your cleaning service, and all the other numerous monthly charges and bills.  Your imaginary income with your desired payroll, just magically covered, each and every month.  No real commitments except what time to open and what time to close. 

And thus, not being in reality.  Same at the baccarat table my friends, no darn different, IMO!

The average person there is really not in reality.  He is in his little corner of safe haven, as long as he has money in front of him.  Completely tunes out the world in 99% of all areas.  Complete faith and belief, that the next hand or two or three will begin to make up for his past losses and set the way for his new found riches.  Everything forthcoming.  Everything will fix itself with nothing really to do. 

Maybe that is why I have actually been noticing those player's mouths dropping open when they continually lose hand after hand.   

Let me clarify here, January 19th I wrote that H-Money returns.  We played once together right then and I was going to start to write about him again.  He stopped and did not gamble again until March because our winter cam in and came in real hard here in the Central Midwest.  A few weeks ago he started gambling again.  I have not been with him since, except once in March, which was for a very small session in fact, maybe one hour at most.  He was holding his own, I lost my buy in and left.

We talk, we communicate, we discuss everything we did at the casino if the other did not go along, etc.  He does have a habit of leaving out details when he straight loses and the details is what I am after to understand.  So be it.  I can find out everything if I really want to at the two properties we go to mostly anyway. 

He played 6 times in March, meaning, six trips to the casino.  He was up over $10,000.00 and gave back $6,000.00 is the bottom line for March, so he won $4,000.00.   Since I was not writing about his trips or our sessions, I am recapping it.  I have had a few inquires from regulars on this board about what we have been doing.  Kind of since the break up of the several members that were the most frequent posters on BetSelction whom took it to be banned, moderated or quit on their own and take up space elsewhere.

H-Moneys problem like most players, especially the newer players is the win hold factor or the figuring what to do factor of playing.  Whether boredom sets in or your greed and lust gets the better part of you, you do need to come to terms with it all as I have outlined in great detail.  So many people here as well as within the casino will laugh at what I write, but I know in my heart it is true and applies to most all of us in so many numerous ways. 

The mathematicians and statisticians have a field day with what I say and they are so far off when it comes to the reality that inflicts itself on us all in a casino, at the baccarat tables, it is not even funny.  Just reality.   

H-Money lost another 4 of his last 6 sessions.  Just spoke to him on the phone tonight as well.

He won about $4,000.00 overall, he was up as much as $10,000.00 roughly, he said and then gave back 2 sessions of $3,000.00 each.  He is doing a bit better but could be holding even more of his wins, when he wins.  He just refuses to realize the reality of what happens at a bac table.

He is not unintelligent, just blindsided or plain forgets all basics when he begins to win. 

"To get a long term edge at this game one needs to bet huge and very rarely and it would be an outrageous statement to say otherwise. Especially if someone tries to demonstrate that every single shoe is controllable, a total fkng bighornshit".

The size of the huge wagers is all in perspective to the buy in as well as the average or the regular wagers of that player.

Every shoe is not controllable, 100 percent in agreement with that one.  Whomever says that either just started playing, has not played for any length of time and/or is attempting to spark up some drama talk. 

Classic, one of the best scene of all times.  From the movie Bugsy (1991 Movie) about Bugsy Seigal establishing gambling in Las Vegas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hkx_puJMF3c

I agree with you, but I was up literally hundreds of units, it was enough.  I would have struggled or won and lost at best.  The best opportunities are not always there, sticking around and praying for more or waiting for more would be frustrating and tempting.  I do believe it was well after midnight as well with an hour and half drive home and had to get up by 6 am.  I know myself and the same as the days I was in NYC or NJ and at Mo Sun or FW and it was midnight or 1 AM and I had a business to open early in the morning, limits are limits and things get complicated when a person plays to win and is not at ease.   

Good job on the wins for sure!

Simply unbelievable, but in so many ways, believable.  Main street with 4 lanes of traffic, two each way.  Side cross street intersects with the main street.  Traffic light is there.  Light red for the side street and green on the main road.  Traffic is there, not too busy, smaller city.  Lady on the side street going to make a right hand turn at the light and onto Main Street.  She has her phone in her left hand and she is texting or something with her right.  She slows up at the light and turns right, does not even look at the traffic coming at her.  The first car closest to her jams on their brakes but the car in the second lane collides with her as she turned right and immediately crossed the lane she was supposed to turn into and then signal left and switch lanes. 

I see it all the time where the cross street turns and the person never even merges into the lane they are supposed to be in, just crosses it to get to the further over lane. 

She winds up getting a ticket for failure to stop, improper turn, improper lane change, distracted driving and expired registration.

What a champ!   

Absolutely spot on, no matter which way you think or desire.

I know in that shoe I posted last night of 23 or so players against he 2 Bankers out there in the very beginning of the shoe, winning large money compared to a relatively small buy in, that if I continued playing, most of it--if not all of it would have gone back to the casino.  Why would someone wager tens of thousands of dollars against what was happening, versus the same amount of those very same wagers with what was happening? Well, IMO, insight, knowledge, experience, desires, expectations, frame of mind, beliefs, false positives overruling and many other things. 

People would come on here and say, wait a second Alrelax, the only way it would have gone back to the casino is if you were foolish, did not apply money management and got unlucky.  Nope, wrong.  Within one or two shoes it would have went back or the highest majority of the win would have anyway.

Sorry, I have been gambling too long.  It was a great win with hundreds of times greater than the buy in.  Leave, be gone a few days, reset and back to my same LEVEL and PLATEAU, I normally wager at in this area and types of casinos I play at. 

THe other people playing, win and win and then they fall because they attempt everything AsymB just outlined.  Hocus Pokus or whatever you want to label it, the numbers and statistics will not consistently hold up at the bac table, day in and day out, grind or pounce on it.  You cannot win and win and win and continue any type of win on a solid consistent basis.  No matter is that is one unit or 100 units each game/shoe. 

If you merge numerous factors of my psych detailed explanations along with numerous factors of what AsymB talks about, you will start to get a clearer picture of how to prevail at bac with insight and understanding, IMO.  There are other members that do contribute and know plenty as well, I am just highlighting what I just read with what I just did as well last night.

I hope this makes sense, to me it does but then again maybe I am just waving that magical wand that Mickey Mouse loaned me from Disney World and I am screaming the words hocus pokus? Maybe, huh?  I do not know.   

You know, I live in a fairly small town.  About 5,000 people or so.  3 city cops on during the day and 1 at night.  Dispatch at night is the Sheriff's Office, type of town.  Okay, I ran from the office over to the market to get something for lunch today.  There are a couple of teens on a corner making snowballs with the melting snow and tossing them at cars as they go by.  I seen one of the cops pull over, get out of his car and talk to them.

I can only imagine.  Most likely, hey come on, stop.  Not nice.  There is your warning.  The same cop pulled me over last week.  I was rushing home to get something done, the snow was falling on top of ice.  I slowed up at a stop sign but clearly did not stop and started to slide.  I did not see anyone coming close by from the cross street so I ran the stop sign.  Sure enough, the cop saw me.  Lights came on, I pulled over.  He said what I did.  He told me he was going to run my license, registration and plates, if not problem, then we can talk.  He comes back in about 2 minutes.  Hands me the paperwork, tells me, be careful, watch those stop signs.

Okay, back to the teens and the snowballs.  I pulled in the market, ran in and got what I wanted at the deli counter.  Back out to my car.  The teens are throwing more snowballs once again.  The cop comes back.  This time the teens are put in the back of the police car and off they go.

Sometimes it is best to adhere to a warning and learn from it, other times the bullies and the ones that like to circle and circle and circle and circle, learn the hard way.  Of course, IMO.   

I have repeatedly witnessed this exact stupidity of wagering, more and more the past 2 years than ever in the past 30 or so.

Some of the players were doing so well with the shoe as well as the previous shoe.  Then they start losing and especially when it is all 1s and 2s and 3s, they begin that relentless drive with a negative progression repeatedly on the opposite side.  Does not matter if it is player or banker on a run, they will wager against it.  Then 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 repeatedly come out and they all get wiped out, every single one of them. 

Years ago, almost never seen that kind of wagering, but now, all the time.  Today, I see more great patterns and trends so obvious and most of the people playing will not wager with the shoe.  Total disarray in their wagering and beliefs.