Quote from: AsymBacGuy on September 06, 2018, 02:14:16 AM
Yeah!

You kept stressing about the importance to play wisely and actually and without any doubt this site is the only one to provide meaningful insights about how to reduce the house edge, to say the least.


as.

Thanks, As

I have attempted to keep the this site geared towards productively discussing wagering, the games, casinos and in general gambling. I would like to remain neutral and positive and leave the negativity and the demeaning, chastising and humiliation type of statement out of it all. The continual one liners with drama driven motives to upset and harass anyone on the board.  We don;t need it, let them gather at the other more consumerish website and fight, argue and demean each other, like WoV, VMB, GF, etc., etc. 

Sometimes it is not the sheer number of members or viewers that add the legitimacy or the real valuable info and data.  Same as in other businesses as well. 

I do have plans and we are working on them.  Interactive games for practice, discussion, competition, etc.  Some type of live gaming.  Some type of news desk such as the old Johnny Carson or David Letterman style shows.  Monologue, interviews, discussion, entertainment of some type and a closing segment.  A few other things.  Just more interaction and involvement, rather than post, wait and type, defend and eventually the thread dies off. 

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on September 06, 2018, 08:58:57 PM

Besides playing and playing,  the best way to get additional money is to mentor high stakes players and not asking miseries from common people. Otherwise the inventor should share ideas for free. Or write a book. Or simply shut up.  (Hard to argue.  Problem is, what is worth an actual cash payment or not?  In today's day of "Scaminternet" so much everyday in the email, fake everything on Google, by Proxy take overs and everything in between, things get diluted pretty darn quick!  I have seen people mentoring in person, playing alongside other good/experienced players.  Some of them are paying them a percentage of the wins and some are not.  Some pay for their time, etc., etc.  But that is all in person.  Over the internet, I don't have a clue.  Of course, my own opinion in almost all cases is, that type of stuff will not make you any more money than you can honestly do on your own.  Who will guide you and stop you when you actually need it???  That is the bottom line.) 


Another option involving celebrity would be to give a lecture at MIT, but more likely than not the listeners would laugh at him/her.  (If you are absolutely so talented, it should be documented and you can certainly go on tour, just like a real job. Takes lots of time, hard work, promo items, advertising, etc., etc., nothing is for free, everyone understands that.  But the concept of, "You pay me $XYZ over the internet, super secret, I don't divulge my name, where I live or anything else, and I teach you the real secret to beating the casino", LOL.  Join the website with the real scammers all bonded together called, BeattheCasino.  A bunch of real self admitted pros that beat the casino and make lots and lots of cash, LOL, did I say LOL??)

Therefore system sellers are 100% scammers by definition. (Pretty much, I would like to lower that to 99.5%, I do think there are some real experienced great players that made their money or gave up trying and can be a real good guide to someone.  But IMO, has to be in person and right there, and the deal has to be, when and if I win, we split.  Other than that with the super secret internet and hide the identity and face pictures and all that, of course it is a scam)

Giz provided interesting concepts here but the idea that randomness involving perfect independent events might be controlled is totally unacceptable. (I have gambled B&M for many years.  Many many.  There is no way any type of pre scheduled wagering can be perfect, no possible way.  As far as events and identifying them, no way as well.  If you cut way down and control yourself for countless hours, you help yourself avoid loss but you also take away many of the chances for the quick win also.  So, damned if you do and damned if you don't.  I wrote about this kind of stuff, thinking and emotional conflict a lot.)

To win at games we need to find spots where probability values change. And to do that we absolutely need finite dependent events, that is games of cards. (Yes correct.  Absolutely. But always a possibility of loss as well.  You need risk capital, risk outlay, positive and quick progression, parlays and side wagering as well as the experience to know when to cash out or continue.) 

Roulette can only be beaten by defects of production (biased wheels or biased software). (I am not touching that one.  But I do constantly see the level and other instruments being placed upon the wheel, etc., when the game is being played)

as.

Grab it and run to the cashier's cage is the bottom line.

The rest fits right in, pretty much. 

Don't go walkin slow....

Better run through the 'casino'....

I heard a rumblin, callin to my name.......

Let the people know my wisedom......(to cash out, lol)

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on September 06, 2018, 02:14:16 AM
Yeah!

You kept stressing about the importance to play wisely and actually and without any doubt this site is the only one to provide meaningful insights about how to reduce the house edge, to say the least.


as.

Touching..................seriously. 

You know when I win at bac and win something good, repeatedly running through my head is the song by Creedence Clearwater Revival, "Run Through The Jungle"......................

Only 6 sentences with the same 3 line chorus in the whole song. 

Simple, that is it.  Listen to it.  When I win a few F-7's, P-8's a 3 card 8/9 and some nice Bankers or Players, all in a short section, that darn song is clearly in my head, almost word for word!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwHqi-qOCZg

When I was younger especially in Atlantic City and up in Connecticut had no idea what the casino hosts were doing in actuality. But they got that 4 hour minimum with those average bets for the room food beverage and incidentals for the higher line players and there's a reason why they do that!! 

But there's a lot more than that, they do. Of course we know all that now many years later but what they do is very good and they're very good at how they keep players there.

I have witnessed numerous people win hundreds of thousands of dollars in short periods of sections like 8 to 15 hands and I've seen those same people almost every one of them give it back over 1 to 4  shoes, because they couldn't repeat what they just did. 

I've seen it way too much!

Quote from: Lungyeh on April 29, 2018, 12:28:17 AM


The defining factor that make any system suitable only to an individual to a smaller or larger extent is the human emotions. Perhaps the mathematicians can formulate all human emotions but for sure even given a certain exact trend then prevailing, humans may react differently because the players at the table are different, the dealer is different, the player just quarrelled with the wife, the player just had a fantastic 50 shades of grey BDSM sex etc etc.



My 2 cents worth of opinion.

Bump.  Accurate.  Great thoughts deduced down for the baccarat player whom seldom even takes time to think.  Etc., etc.

[attach=1]

The orange you do not want to be at.  I wrote what will definitely get you into the place you do not want to be.

The green is where you really do want to be at.

Stop being so hard headed and believing the wrong people. 

I have finally received 2 detailed message (PM's/Emails) from members here that have paid and taken Gizmo's course/teachings/school, etc.

While I am not here to bash or demean or humiliate anyone, I am here to educate, inform, advise to the best of my knowledge anything and everything on this message board.

I am and have always been here to discuss and expand my knowledge as well as those desiring to engage in the same type of discussion on a positive or at least a neutral basis rather than the negative, engaging for drama or otherwise type of behavior such as the 3 or 4 that banded together in their attempt to rule, run, control and dominate the board here.

Getting back to Mark/Gizmo.  I gave a bit of lee-way to Mark, apologized, attempted to genuinely make up with the guy and move forward with our vehicle here.  Mark has outright lied to me and others, deceived plenty, and at his will--beck and call, turn the tables to favor himself and his position(s) presented.  I have the proof, not only of a deceitful, ugly and fraudulent business dealing that was consummated and engaged upon because of this board, but 2 members of this board concerning his teaching/mentoring, etc. 

At best his mentoring is almost a system that could be attained just about anyway on the internet for less than $100.00 at best.  Mark, blows it all up, praises himself, his losses, his trails and errors and everything else to make himself great, fantastic, the best, etc.  It is all salesmanship on the best day.  Both members spent their money on the promise they would get the knowledge and the insight to what Mark promises,  But Mark is savvy, Mark is slick, Mark is seasoned, etc.  Mark knows what he is preaching and doing and always has a way out by claiming the members just cannot learn or absorb or spends his winnings on greed and fallacy mixed in by the student, etc., etc. 

My questions are, why does Mark and others like him, refuse to release their contact info, their real names, their locations, their references, their phone numbers, and many other things any type of reputable, real business normally does?  As well, people like Mark band together with the types like Xander, Jimske and SoxFan and uses them for his own boasting and comradeship to influence the newb's and the innocent naive members that might just fall prey with $2,000.00 or $3,000.00 in the hopes to become that professional, great, rich gambler Mark says he can create of most anyone. 

But, Mark and the other handful of people will band together and show outright disrespect, chastising, humiliation and attempted control of the website they really have nothing managerial to do with, not pay to belong, refuse to donate, refuse to advertise, refuse to release anything personnel about themselves and stand ready to squash, demean and step on anyone actually making perfect, real, verifiable statements that people can learn from, research, expand their knowledge base and become generally informed for free.

Just a few thoughts I wanted to get out there after talking with several of the BetSelection long time members yesterday by phone. 

Thanks, Glen.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on October 16, 2017, 12:56:13 AM
An entire shoe producing all B-P chops (even discounting ties) is impossible to believe.
Even admitting 30 ties, the probability to get 50 BP chopped hands represents a more than 7 sr deviation, that is the same probability to get a 50 hands streak.

In the history of roulette and baccarat there are no records of such values. 
(roulette records known= 42 blacks and 41 chopping hands)

If this should be true, it's an additional proof that baccarat tends to get the opposite outcome of the last happened. As bac streaks of 50 never happened.

as.

Asym:

There is nothing I can really offer except my words and a statement, not a lie or exaggerated in any way.   

I don't recall ever hearing of streaks (with or without ties) of excess of 30 Bankers or Players in a row, ever.  High 20's. 26-27 -28 or so and those are rare. 

I personally witnessed that complete shoe of chops, alternating B-P-B-P-B-P the entire shoe, with ties, don't remember how many ties, 15??  But nonetheless, 1 complete shoe of B-P the entire shoe at the old Bally's Grand in Atlantic City.  I believe I saw another one with either 2 or 3 little runs of only 3's.  I have asked countless dealers in small talk, I recall a couple of them saying yes they have also, once.  The remainder, always no, they have never seen it. 

And over at another message board you literally have the handful of people that were also here, attempting to run and control our board when I was taking over.  With their repetitiveness, one-liners, redundant nothings, continual senseless challenges that were strictly 100% drama orientated to square off with others, not really much at all to even do with gambling and theory anyways. 

There is not even new people, all they did was go from here to over there with 4 out of the 6 of them banned here, another threatening not to come back here and now Mark making it probably 5 banned here out of the 6 over there controlling and attempting to drive their board, etc, etc. 

I really sat down the other night and went on as a guest and read.  LOL,same thing, just different board names with less censorship.  But they do back down when the censorship comes over there because they are running out of places to really go.  And IMO and estimation, 90% or greater is not even about gambling or anything related to casinos.   
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Here, 3 weeks ago I wrote something that fits right in here!  IMO:

"Merging and discussing reality gets attacked because it clearly, plainly and simply attacks the Fantasy World of those that created their opinions, schedules and beliefs by whatever cult methods they happen to believe in.

It is a form of belief, but the way they formed it is different then the reality and what actually happens at the casino tables.  "I can't comment on it",  "I don't know", or  "It is possible".  Whatever happened to those?

Not just in discussion on the message boards, but in general because I say the internet and the social media thing and everything along with that, and of course those are not viable answers any longer.

The exact same as when I walked through the door and my kid says,  "Daddy I love you", hugs me and continues saying, "The babysitter is a liar".  Cut it off before it is brought out, pretty smart if you ask me. But the truth is, people attempt to cut or mitigate reality to fit the person's agenda.  It's the same on the message board, that's all I got to say."

Quote from: TheMagician on August 30, 2018, 11:56:58 AM
You give a person with a self-confessed schizophrenia (and in my view serious and clearly visible signs of mano-depressive, bipolar mental issues), enough leeway and opportunities to take apart what you have built, that is what you get.

It is like putting your hand into a hungry tigers mouth, wondering why he doesn't stop, having bitten it off, going for the rest of you...

You are correct, wished I could have said, "See I told you Mark was okay"!  But I cannot.  And, I am naming him.  We had our couple of in's and out's, sure.  I wholeheartedly apologized to him and he played me, played me 100% because of the type of person I really am.

He will not be back, period.  I 100% banned him.  He is on another board and he is self-confessing everything I just said and numerous other things, how he so perfectly played me, us, everyone, etc.  He says how he manipulated and used me and this board.  But then he turns around and says how honest he is and how loyal and how great of a gambler he is.  Including excuses for the numerous thousands of dollars he took and failed to return to another member here. 

My point in saying all that is not revenge or feelings!  It is that we are all people, with brains, guts, motives and plans we each carry out or not. 

You know it is the same as my business I am currently in.  I hire people, fire them.  Some great employees have personal problems and it also effects their work.  Many times I have compromised and listened, understood what they were going through, adjusted and bent rules and regulations within my small company to keep them.  Most times, it worked out and benefited my company, myself and the person.  Other times it has not.  But the good ones have to suffer at times if we are to salvage or rectify the situations involving others that are sometimes within our own ball court.  At least IMO. 

I go back with Vic here, and I blew up at him in the past.  As well as, at Esoito and AD.  But you know what, my apologies were truthful, brutally given and I think, pretty much upheld.  I can only say, most of us treat others as we want to be treated or at least we put ourselves into the picture as the other person, and maybe that explains why we do what we each do??

Please be careful with gambling you'all.

Here is an example of what it can very well bring onto you!

I have it under real good authority that this individual is attempting to solicit members and this board and myself, in no way endorses his teaching or knowledge in any way whatsoever!

I have recently allowed him to post with neutrality and using his tenure here in a level headed and reasonable offer.

Unfortunately I have information that has been double verified and checked as to his unscrupulous and senseless offers.  I will not allow it on our board.  Any question, please message me, thanks, Glen.

https://betselection.cc/gizmotron/a-very-special-apology-to-alrelax/msg64589/#new

Relevance versus Perception versus Reality.......The Brutal Honest Truth Most Cannot or Will Not Face--Admit--Even Explore!

Relevance

A very important thing to base much around when you are actually at the casino table.  For good solid reason!

I took H-Money to the casino the other night.  F***Me!
What a waste of time, action and f***ing emotions!

He won $23,000.00 and agreed, complied and then went back to the casino after we dropped him home, and gave it all back, the buy-in and borrowed additional monies to continue his attempt to recoup, recover and win, once again.  It was right at a $1,000.00 buy in.  Two shoes, done deal.  Talked until both myself and my buddy was blue in the face, pretty much a last ditch try with the man.  I can't take it any longer.  Somehow he allowed the defensives of the casino to come right through, be ingrained within himself and allow them to overwhelm himself.  Sad, but reality and relevant! 

No matter what he wins or loses, he cannot paint a picture with a decent relevant game plan that can bring him back around.  If we went tomorrow and he won $100K + he would give it all back and then some.  If he won $5k or $10k or another $23k, he would only add huge doses of failure waiting to happen, because he does not and cannot realize, relevance in the overall picture is one of the key items that he disavows even pertinent to gambling.  And, IMO it most certainly is foremost and #1.   

Emotional and childish, ego driven.  What the real problem is the false sense of perception? IMO, it is the sheer misunderstanding, fail to have explained to yourself as well as the ugly greed and reality that you have no idea how to handle, taper or deal with, when you are playing.   Leave it at the door!  Check it.  Be done with it.  All it can generally do for you, is hurt you.  Almost all of you figure you have the casino outsmarted and outwitted by reading the likes of the 3 or 4 regular members that used to write on this board until I could not put up with their game playing and their warped sense of combativeness.  Over and over and over, the same things with the same people or the scarring away of new members. 

First stop is walking through the casino doors.  Get into neutral.  No perception, None! 

Leave perception, I stress.  Engage in 'Relevance'.

Relevance means, 'Important to the matter at hand', 'being connected'.  And, that my friend will bring you laps around perception. 

Probability and Edge Variance cannot be applied to the game in every move detail, unless you have a huge, almost infinite bankroll to fund buy-in after buy-in after buy-in, to continue your pursuit of endless wagering that fails more than it wins.  When you get up a few units then you say you stop and take the profit, oh please---that story is getting real old, does not happen except repeatedly on paper. 

You either go down -OR-you succeed

Those two things happen, will happen and there is no way to stop them or pick a table without the chance that either of them will happen.  Period.  No way.

Each hand has just as much chance to happen or not happen in most situations.  Not all, but most.  There are select times (opportunities by the clear majority of the chance) that something will happen in the upcoming section, that it is a clear opportunity, but that is not the focus here. 

You can put a math spin on it to support any position you take or are against. 

Regarding Test Results

The computer test results highlighting probability and variance, cannot be applied uniformly across the board to the casino table you are playing at, unless you play the same amount of total hands in long term multimillion shoe tests.  This cannot be accomplished in the casino.  Period.

Therefore, you cannot use the results of those computer tests, divided down to small play times and hope they will match the results of the shoe in the casino you choose to play at.  Period.

The house edge might or might not happen in a shoe.  There is no way to tell what it will probably produce until very late in the shoe, say hand 65-70, you still do not have a definitive advantage, because you still have no idea the order of the cards remaining, and how they will proceed to come out.

False Positives

Identify what happens, when it happens as well as when it did not happen.  That will give you sections that could allow you to be ready for opportunities that the shoe could produce.  But once again, the shoe might not.  What so many players are under is a false positive that something has to happen.  It does not.  Will it eventually, probably.  And that right there is the biggest and most dangerous misnomer of the game itself.

Even with the extensive review and analyzation of all baccarat computer test results by the world's most advanced, best qualified, highest rated mathematicians and statisticians, they will not be able to come up with a formula to outright predict randomness.  They will however, claim, they can pick the correct random outcome the majority of the time and the like--just to make themselves feel heads and tails over the rest of us.  But in reality, it does not work that way.  The sooner you digest that the sooner you will be on your way to realistic and better play. 

As far as any reoccurring events, (runs, streaks, chop chop, doubles, triples, etc.) they happen all the time, almost every single shoe.  It is just that we trained ourselves the wrong way to recognize them.  We convinced ourselves that we have to see the reoccurring events to play with them repeatedly first and then wager on them to continue or cut.  At best we win a couple or a few and then give it right back, pushing us almost unconsciously into submission or gross negligence of everything we learned, stood for and practiced.  In other words, you are approaching the selection for your wagers, the wrong way with the wrong trend of thought. Means an awful lot!  You only wind up putting yourself into a rut, a mean nasty rut that is only your fault.  Being neutral, being clear minded, possessing no scheduled types of wager selection protocol, is so vital and so crucial to winning money, the simplicity of it is tough for so many to actually grasp and understand.

There are always opportunities along the upcoming path, which are not yet presented.  All you have to do, is be on that path.  REMEMBER that above all else!   But my key to winning is the application of my chart below, not to be confused with actual BetSelection procedures.  This will enable you to win much greater amounts, than you would normally.  And that is one of the keys for stacking up the win money, something sizable anyways.

If you are going to play with the thought of one unit profit, just focusing on the 1s, which have to happen, after an unknown amount of previous repeats, or choose an entering point, way when a 3 or a 4 repeating P or B occurs and then wager for the opposite side, all you have to do is have enough to buy in and be able to stay under table max, no matter how many times you lose before the cut to the opposite side comes out. But if you win, you will not and if you lose, likewise, you become more enraged and frustrated and thus your cycle and vision is knocked so far off balance, you are only destined to lose, plain and simple.

One unit profit, two units profit.  I do not play for it.  However, if you were to do this for example, at a $2,000.00 max table, you would have the following chances to make 1 unit profit.  This has to be about the most believed in and most talked about schedule of wagering ever.  There are so many other more secure ways to wager with far less risk and far greater opportunity! 

$100 Wagers          $50.00 Wagers        $25.00 Wagers           $200.00 Wagers                 $500.00 Wagers
100.00                      50.00                          25.00                       200.00                          500.00
200.00                      100.00                        50.00                        400.00                         1,000.00
400.00                      200.00                        100.00                      800.00                          2,000.00
800.00                      400.00                        200.00                      1,600.00                    ___________
1,600.00                   800.00                        400.00                    ____________
________                 1,600.00                      800.00                    Risk  3,000.00             Risk 3,500.00
Risk 3,100.00           __________                 1,600.00
                               Risk 3,150.00            _____________
                                                                 Risk 3,175.00

3 to 7 wagers at a $2,000.00 max table, even at a $100.00 to a $10,000.00 max table, there are not a lot of greater chances left.  Huge risk, versus reward and consistent wins?  If you never witnessed 7 to 10 losing hands, you really have never got into playing baccarat yet.  You can easily finish those charts for any max limit table and figure out your risk, it is huge!  I see people do it all the time and I see more lose than even walk away with the one or two units. 

Problem being, once you lose a series of 5 to 7 wagers, as shown above with the Marty, you will be in deep by subscribing to that way of scheduled play.  Lose once or twice and attempt to make it all back at one or two units with further risk.  Nearly impossible.  I promise you that. 

I would say one of the safest, although no guarantees, is to enter after the 4th occurring same side result.  There are lots and lots of 2's and 3's and even 4's.  However, if the streak goes past the 4th repeating one, then you will lose your risk wager for that round.   And the highest majority of everyone will not stop with the first loss.  And, if you say, all I need is a $3,500.00 bankroll and I can repetitively win one or two units all day long.  Just split up my sessions, win and break, win and win and keep repeating.  Try it! It will not work, it will backfire on you and your $3,500.00 will be gone, fast.  Then attempt to recoup that by one and two unit wins of $25.00! It will take 124 times, winning 1 unit at a time to recoup.  You better have tens of thousands of dollars in bank roll to risk and lose frequently if that is your trend of thought.

There usually are short sections within most shoes, not all, but most, that do offer super opportunities for great returns in wagering if done correctly.  I have talked and exposed plenty in relationship to that.  You have to program your mind and be neutral. 
Since there are only a limited amount of repeating events, whether same side repeats, alternating, or anyone of the other possibilities, they are captivating providing a false positive believe, either by winning or losing with the hopes to win.  Stop falling prey to what the casino wants you to fall prey to.  The casino inflicts each of us with false beliefs in the upcoming betselections.  It happens.  It always did and it always will.  So face it.  However, the rest is up to each person, their style, how good or bad their gut feeling really are, and probably more so than anything else, the types of experiences the player has inflicted upon himself in an overall aspect. 

The two folded problem has to be overcome.  You don't do that by counting on winning to replace or obtain funds that you have lost.  You also do not count on future hands to produce the same results.  The list goes on, but those two will give you the basis for most of what you cannot count on and cannot do at the table.  To resolve the problems inflicted by your wrong decisions and beliefs in betselection, you must shift into a neutral frame of mind, not relying on anything to make you shift into the negative emotional and those frustration reactions of your lost wagers.  Real hard, very very difficult but a necessity of such basic knowledge that you have to master and do it flawlessly or your chances are reduced by huge amounts to win as well as walk away a winning more than you do a loser.

So, that is exactly why I attempt to follow my, "If I win I win", and "If I lose I will lose", type of play.  Not fighting it nearly as much as others do at the tables.  Relevance and Reality are what counts, not perception.  Short term success at the table is the path you want to find.  Once your mind wanders and once you start believing all the fallacy and the desires of others, you will somehow find yourself throwing gutter balls down the ally, time after time after time. 

Great on paper horrible in a brick-and-mortar casino the cause of almost everyone's downfall that's tries it.