Here is a shoe with all 1s and 2s except for the opening 4iar banker and two more bankers with 3iar each.  Although not rare occurrences, happens quite often. 

This is a pic at hand 61, if I remember correctly it finished about the same with P/B 1s and 2s and a 3iar and 4iar tie hands.

Yes, 1s and 2s come and seem prevalent, however they seem comfortable being nestled between longer streaking and clumping.  You can't be a 1s and 2s player when the streaking and clumping starts and be able to make money.  As well, you can't be a streaking and clumping player when the 1s and 2s are occurring.  All IMO and experience anyways.  See second and third pictures.

These are real shoes in a B&M casino.  Remember that about actual, non armchair quarterbacking decision making and frame of mind influences.  Same as attorneys.  Paper law is very different than courtroom trial law played out.

Well guys, 2025 is getting closer and giving it much thought!

Lots of plans, goals and desires.

I am in the midst of putting together 2 very large improvements and additions to this forum.  Won't be long before they come to surface and implemented.

I truly hope all of you are looking forward to 2025 and are in good health and spirits!

Everyone hang in there and be the best you can be!

Thanks and Stay Well!
Alrelax
Forum Administrator & Owner

Reference 2 Card each side, 2 Card one side 3 Card other side, 3 Card both sides.

I watched and kept notes (scoring 2 live shoes just a while ago).  One shoe had: 26 hands with 2 cards both sides.  24 hands with 3 cards one side and 2 cards the other side.  31 hands with 3 cards for both sides.

The next shoe had 24 hands with 2 cards for both sides.  21 hands with 3 cards one side and 2 cards the other side.    34 hands with 3 cards for both sides.

Note:  the second shoe was far behind with the 3 cards one side and 2 cards for the side for quite some time. 

IMO, it all equals out somewhat.  As with almost everything in the game of Bac, equalization is just about paramount.  Of course we never know exact turning points and at times, things do not equal out. 

IMO, I cannot find any insight to knowledge advantages even knowing which one of the 3 types of total cards for the upcoming hand might be dealt.

As you said, "In any instance, it's obvious that any shoe dealt is affected by a strong asymmetry (Alrelax pointed out several interesting situations to grasp), the problem is to find statistical tools to know when to bet toward this ad when to stop the betting (or even wagering FOR it)."

AS FAR AS BETTING TOWARD:

One has to explore, research and be comfortable with what I call; "Equalization", "Just One More", "Cuts Within Sections", "Sections" and "Recognizing Dominance" to use for their wagering advantages. 

Those five are not a definitive list, but very common and non-rarity ones that immediately come to mind.

AS FAR AS STOPPING:

Hit a few quick and hard within a Section.  Continue Positive Progressions out a few times for large returns and then go back to your established 'Base Unit'.

(I have written extensively about all the above I have mentioned herein)

Well, here is mine.

Ongoing, ongoing, ongoing, and ongoing for some time now.  Research, write, study, read, write, write more, and write even more. Talk and repeat all the above, along with playing, playing, playing playing, playing, and even more play.

Yet, I am not satisfied and I will not die, period!  Not yet or for a while anyways.

And here is where as they classically say, the plot thickens and my resolution comes into play.

What is it I want?  To complete a one million dollar plus win session within 2 to 3 shoes. And in my heart and soul, I know it is coming. How do I know? Because my Guardian Angel told me so. Crazy I know, but so very true.  It is inevitable and it will happen in 2025.  (Side Note:  My record for any single session has never been over $200k)

Can I do it? Oh hell yes my friends, enemies and trolls, I certainly can. By the way, that 4 word question; "Can I do it" was a 100% rhetorical question in every way!

All of you guys, have a great 2025! 

Love you all, 
Alrelax
Forum Administrator & Owner

Read the above that I wrote originally a couple years ago (almost 2 years to date). Re-read it if you have to a couple times. Understand it.

I see it over and over and over again and again and again. Wins are given back in order to extend winning time at the table. Losses are incurred in order to begin winning and the losses continue. It's a notorious and ugly catchall, taken for granted with common reoccurrence at all Baccarat  tables all the time. It happens over and over again.

However, to profit with decent and sizable wins a player must be able to wager a greater amount of advantaged bets that will win rather than lose.

You must realize what the real power of winning and losing usually imposes on players themselves. When you do realize both of those, you will be really advantaged, IMO.

And with that said, once you are in the frame-of-mind that you can profit quickly and heavily, as H-Money and myself say, you can bang it out hard-hand after hand after hand for numerous hands, accumulating large profits.

Did you guys notice where the Christmas tree was at?

It is not easy. There is absolutely no, "one plan for all" as most think there is or should be.

First of all, I would like to give a comparison. Attorneys and trying a case in the courtroom. There is a huge difference between paper law and actual trial law. With that in mind read on.

Now. First you have to have somewhat of a game plan with a rock solid adherence to a Money Management Method that will give you advantages.

Second. You have to decide and be very comfortable with what your bank roll will be, as well as what each session's buy-in risk capital will be.

Third. You must understand as well as be somewhat comfortable with unavoidable drawdowns. Drawdown of the players buy-in will happen the majority of the times. When it does not, be conscious of it and play as though you are drawing down on your buy-in, rather than risking your wins all too quick, which will usually result in that "giving it right back syndrome" which happens all the time.

A good drawdown understanding will be established when a player stabilizes his wager with a base unit all in proportion to his buy-in. As well, he must also have a plan as to what he will do with wins and losses of his base unit. Those base units and understandings will be within his Money Management Method.

Why are base units so important?  Because your base units are your chances to go forward with advantages.  If you just want to always "go for it" all you really need to do is, just take your base unit and multiply it by how many attempts you have the funds to engage the casino with.  For example, a negative martingale $100-$200-$400-$800-$1,600-$3,200, etc., depending on the max table limit at your casino. So if you believe in and want to have a negative Martingale plan as part of your MMM and are willing to wager a $100 base unit, and you desire to wager five negative progressions, you will have to have $6,300 buy-in ready to risk. 

Taking the above into consideration, say you do desire your MMM to allow you 20 times to profit off your session buy-in risk capital, in my opinion your MMM bank roll should be $126,000. Your MMM would allow you 5% buyins, therefore allowing you 20 chances before busting out your bankroll. Yes bankrolls and buy-ins are different for most all of us.  But the 5% buy-ins of a bankroll I do believe most experienced players will tell you, are to your advantage and pretty much reasonable with the way bankrolls should be the governing factor of session buy-ins, etc.  All of which would come into play with the player's drawdown.

As far as flat betting, you can use the same scenarios, $100 base unit and figure out how many wins you would keep or possibly parlay up, then at what point would you stop due to too many losses or even a positive win amount.

Ref Martingale betting.  It is ultimately unsustainable and carries the highest risk of significant losses.

Ref Flat betting.  It is a very risky and slow way to make anything higher than a few units.  However, if one has several hands that lost in flat betting, the make up of the drawdown is totally in favor of the casino and the player will be subjecting himself to a textbook grinding-down situation he normally can not come out of.

Personally I do not endorse negative Martingales or flat betting as a game plan. In my experience there is just way too much risk with compounding wins to make winning anything sizable. Negative Martingales and flat betting will not be to a players advantage outside of employing them occasionally for a few hands.

I do engage with and have written about it extensively 1-3-2-6 or some variation of it. As well as 1-2-4-8 or 1-2-4. Full and consecutive parlays of a base unit also known as consecutive positive progressions. With these or some variations of these in mind, I would take my base unit, let's say $100 and multiply how many chances I desire my game plan to be established with. Say I do desire 24 chances.  By the way, which I really do like 24 chances, I would need $2,400 for my buy-in risk capital. That $2,400 should be coming from a bank roll of $48,000. Thus my bank roll affords me 20 sessions with not a single winning session to replace my buy-in back to its original bank roll and pocket what's left over of the wins. 

That way you are accepting and expecting drawdowns and playing within reasonable expectations to excel.  You cannot play believing the game of Baccarat will have its published coin flip 50/50 fallacy and its the easiest game to win at.  Here is a tip for you.  Baccarat is the easiest game to win, however it is also the easiest game to lose. 

Again, drawdowns must be comfortable to the player because they eventually will afford advantages to the player with changes, longevity and profitability during the session. It must also be considered as vital and risk capital taken in consideration drawdowns are inevitable during most all sessions at some point. Kind of like membership dues, an amount to get in and the results may or may not follow or be to the members advantage. 

One final thing. Part of a rock solid MMM but also part of your drawdown that hopefully turns successful during each session. And that is, governing your wins. My biggest advantage I believe that I have engaged in and became reliant on, is my 1/3rd 1/3rd 1/3rd incorporated into my MMM with my winning sessions. 

Say I bought it in for $2,400. I wager a $100 base unit with a plan to positive parlay wins three times. 1-2-4, $100 wins 3 times, will net me $700.  Naturally it will take some kind of drawdown to get there most of the time. But not all and maybe I could do it a few consecutive times in a row. Next thought would be to have a 1-2-4-8. Again a $100 win four times, nets me $1,500. Depending on table limits, those base units might be $200-$500 or even $1,000 depending on what your casino allows, what your buy-in in bankroll allows and what you were comfortable with. 

Upon profitability at some point I would engage in my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd. For those of you oblivious to what that is, it is 1/3rd of the sizable winnings remaining in my buy-in stack in front of me, 1/3rd in my pocket locked up and the remaining 1/3rd of the win for reserve. The reserve might be a second chance if the session goes horribly bad or it might just end up as locked up or pre-destined for something outside of gaming related, etc. Your choice of the above would apply any way you like. But part of your plan and when things fall to your advantage, you will automatically take them and keep them while always remembering you were subject to drawdown when you were not winning. Or the point you get to be able to win.

Although the above is heavenly an MMM item, it has to be also consciously incorporated into your current play and coming out of a drawdown and into a winning mode.

Play smart!  Play safe!

A very Merry Christmas to all with a following Happy New Year and of course, large amounts of success in all you tackle and take on!

You know Foxwoods and Mohegan put a huge dent into AC when they both opened.  For Northern Jersey and NYC crowd it was just about as far either to Eastern Connecticut or South Jersey.

But both Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun took super great care of their regular and mid-level to higher rollers than AC by far. 

Then of course Eastern Pennsylvania and Massachusetts casinos came along which also took lots of those away that traveled to AC from those densely populated areas. 

Saturday night, after a Shoe of play a few of us regulars went to the steakhouse with a generous comp from the floor manager.  Steaks and shrimp cocktails all around.  Beautiful glasses of cognac at the start. 

Here is the outcome of our discussion and what we all should seriously adhere to for each session:

Prepare for the worst, expect failure.  But don't stress and seriously consider your buyin risk capital.  Believe in yourself, not the Shoe to match your desires.  Deploy your knowledge and experience while you "Go for it" and "Do it".

The luxury of experience is knowledge.

The outcome of NEW EXPERIENCE is almost always 'Spiff-Balling'.

Play visual patterns/trends with a short attempt to capture 2 to 4, possibly 5 hits in a small section of the Shoe divided up into 4 sections.  (FYI, I have written extensively about 'sections')

You need to play chess while the others are playing checkers.

Here is one for the old school bac players that used to play on the original two sided tables, with the 2 bankers seated and the casino person standing up calling the cards, and a floor supervisor on each end of the table.  This was also the type of table where each person actually held the shoe and dealt the cards, kept the shoe as long as the shoe was producing banker winning hands and pass the shoe counterclockwise after the shoe made a winning player hand.

Oh seen it all.  People eat a card, rip up cards, throw bad hands, even the Casino movie bj scene with Joe Pesci where he kept throwing the cards at the dealer telling dealer to give them to his mom and sister or something like that.  Remember this one large player back at Ballys Grand in AC, needed anything but a face or 10 and we would have all won the hand. 

You know, back then smoking cigar, Italian biz owner of some type from NYC etc. 

Anyways he peeks at the card.  Looks at everyone.  We all know it has to be a face card.  He looks at bankers seated, (don't forget we actually had the shoe not the casino personnel). Looks at the banker seated and throws the card at him, like frisbee style and said, here you take the lesbian (it was a queen of course) and he immediately pulls another card.  Gets a number card and slams it down,  said, see that-we won.

Floor person on his side of the table reached over and slid the shoe into the middle of the table and then after previous hand was all collected up,  played out the next hand as a dead hand,  she told him,  one more chance then your done. 

He gave some kind of monologue about his wife and X wives all telling him the same sh*t.  He turns to the floor person standing on his side of the table and flaps his fingers into his thumb like a good 10 times .  She just ignored him.

But lol, those were the days. 

I will breakdown what happened and our way of successfully Wagering them. A few of us did extremely well, the rest either pushed or eventually lost their funds. I'm not armchair quarterbacking these after the fact. I will lay out our reasonings and decisions as they basically happened best I can from my notes.

I will do that starting tomorrow.

Well it appears the sandwich which got its name from The 4th Earl of Sandwich, has relation to developing it for snacking at the gaming table. 

"Then in the early 1770s, the French travel writer Pierre-Jean Grosley published a gossipy and satirical book called A Tour to London; Or New Observations on England and its Inhabitants. In it, Grosely described a scene at a gambling table:"

https://www.history.com/news/sandwich-inventor-john-montagu-earl-of-sandwich

From Wiki:  The word "sandwich" appears, referring to a certain roast beef sandwich in England

Portrait of the Earl of Sandwich by Thomas Gainsborough, 1783, after whom the sandwich is named. Initially perceived as food that men shared while gaming and drinking at night, the sandwich slowly began appearing in polite society as a late-night meal among the aristocracy. The sandwich is named after John Montagu, 4th Earl of Sandwich, an eighteenth-century English aristocrat.[8][9] It is commonly said that Lord Sandwich, during long sessions of cribbage and other card games at public gambling houses, would order his valet to bring him roast beef between two pieces of toasted bread.[9] He was fond of this form of food because it allowed him to continue gambling while eating, without the need for a fork, and without getting his cards greasy from eating meat with his bare hands. The dish then grew in popularity in London, and Sandwich's name became associated with it.[8] The rumour in its familiar form appeared in Pierre-Jean Grosley's Londres (Neuchâtel, 1770), translated as A Tour to London in 1772;[15] Grosley's impressions had been formed during a year in London in 1765. An alternative is provided by Sandwich's biographer, N. A. M. Rodger, who suggests Sandwich's commitments to the Navy, and to politics and the arts, mean the first sandwich was more likely to have been consumed at his desk.

The sandwich's popularity in Spain and England increased dramatically during the nineteenth century, when the rise of industrial society and the working classes made fast, portable, and inexpensive meals essential.[16] In London, for example, at least seventy street vendors were selling ham sandwiches by 1850; during that decade sandwich bars also became an important form of eating establishment in western Holland, typically serving liver and salt beef sandwiches.

In the United States, the sandwich was first promoted as an elaborate meal at supper. By the early 20th century, as bread became a staple of the American diet, the sandwich became the same kind of popular, quick meal as was already widespread in the Mediterranean.

OMG, gotta love it!  Might just be a touch of the old school mob, huh?  You guys have a few weeks to rectify a situation you committed, can't undo the situation as it's a done deal, but if you pay us what we were supposed to have received up front on fees and permitting charges, you guys are good to go.

"The city sent a notice to the Three Affiliated Tribes, saying it has until January 6 to file and purchase the necessary permits or face legal action."


I Love It!  Beautiful!  Wonder when they show up at the Las Vegas/Clark County Building Department after the funds are paid if the city/county has the cigars and cognac brought out? 


https://www.kxnet.com/news/top-stories/three-affiliated-tribes-facing-action-in-las-vegas-for-improperly-tearing-down-hotel/