And last week I saw just that.  It was either zero ties out or 1 and it was around hand 35 or so.  Three ties, back to back.  Then no more for quite some time.  The couple of players that hit 2 of them, neither one wagered for the 3rd of course.  Then they gave it all back attempting more.  To me, after all these years of playing, ties is the absolute most elusive thing to myself. 

After thinking about it, I would say overall, I think there are more with 4 cards out there and with 6, then with 5.  But, isn't there more hands total with 4 or 6 cards drawn rather than with 5?  And of course, there is no way to count or know or feel, if it is going to be a 4-5 or 6 card draw of course.

Ties are a weird animal.  I have seen many regualr players I play with at the tables, repeatedly hit them like clockwork.  I really have never been a heavy tie player by any means.  At times, might give it shot, more so---when there are 0-2 or 0-3 ties after a good 25-40 hands or so. 

As we all know, a good mean average for ties is at the 7 to 12 mark, but like F-7's, runs of 6 or more, long sections of chop or doubles, etc., they might not come or they might very well exceed the expectation or averages.

With that said, I found the tie wager to be the most frustrating thing in bac, than anything else.  I strictly limit my exposure to it, if there is an extremely low tie count like I said and I am doing well with win rate, at the same I might give it a shot. 

If I am understanding what you are saying in your post, I can't quite agree on the number of cards drawn in the hands theory.  I do agree on the low to no ties after a decent amount of hands without, yes.  As far as the number of cards drawn, I think it averages out with 4 card ties, 5 card ties or 6 card ties.  Maybe not for the shoes within a session, but that goes for anything else as well, naturals cutting to the other side, or every natural resulting in a side wager prevailing after, or a strong section of 1's and 2's followed by a great streak, etc.  Meaning, it 'did it' that shoe and the player expects the up coming presentments to follow, etc.

My real problem with the tie wager, is the 'few' units you get back as compared to the other side wagers ranging from 25 to 1 up to 200 to 1.  Whereas, if you narrow it down and play the side wagers for a limited amount of time and do hit one or two of them, the return is pretty good.  As compared to the tie wager of 8 to 1 or 9 for 1, unless you are at the new Bad Beat tables then the 6/6 or 7/7 or any 6/6--7/7 ties will pay either 20 or 40 to 1.  However, the 8 to 1, doesn't leave much of a profit unless you hit it real quick, etc.  Usually most players will end up giving it back or barely recouping what they already won off of other wagers, etc

Tell it the way it is! 

Gotta love the character she portrays in the movie, The Heat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J2zwmT7M-0

Yes sir, spot on.

When it's there it's there and like I have shown in pictures and tried to explain, I profited extremely well and when I control my buy ins and my risk capital and when I replace losses right away, it works!   Take out the wins and exclude those from your current or future play, large profits are possible.

Quote from Mike:  "It probably would't work in the USA because you don't have bookies there, and you have to understand how bookies operate in order to beat them at their own game".

I don't know Mike, when I lived in the northeast prior to 2002, the bookies were mostly based on Staten Island and came every Tuesday to collect if their customer/bettor lost and returned every Thursday with the winnings.  Might be different now, but that is the way it was 15 years ago and was for quite some time. 

As far as understanding how they operate/operated, I guess I could have asked my partner in the business I was in at the time, but I did pretty well on college and NFL and some basketball before I stopped wagering on sports.   The other half of my partner's family was the 'bookies'.  But, as you said, the USA doesn't have any bookies, etc.  Okay.

I guess the U.S. Attorney's Office in the Southern District and Eastern District of New York as well as California districts, thinks different as well?

http://www.waterfrontcommission.org/newspage91.html

https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/illegal-sports-bookmaker-sentenced-conspiring-commit-sports-bribery-0

https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/fourteen-men-charged-illegal-gambling-operation-based-out-lucky-lady-casino-and-card

https://www.nytimes.com/1984/01/22/nyregion/illegal-sports-betting-called-growing-and-intractable-problem-in-new-york.html

https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/sandiego/news/press-releases/twenty-five-people-charged-as-members-of-10-million-illegal-gambling-and-money-laundering-operation

Quote from: Gizmotron on June 18, 2018, 03:52:43 PM

.......if my heart gives out.........

Then we will just have to keep you alive! 

What works in profitability for one player might not work for another.  Reason being, the 'other' player will attempt to extract whatever it was that won, but that will generally exclude all the other peripheral and ancillary 'reasonings'/protocols, etc., that allowed or assisted the original player to win.

Other people will come on and say, if 'XYZ' worked for 'so and so', then it has to work for anyone and if does not then it is gambler's fallacy, etc.  And, that is where the controversy starts and expands.

IMO, and that of experience, not anything else and I cannot engage in the mathematical reasoning of it. 

Picking anything for a consistent and repetitive bet wagering selection of any one thing, will the majority of the times, get the player into a loss situation.  Coupled with what most do, flat-betting, negative progression and as well, coupled with, 'scared to wager when winning time comes', (which Lungyeh) defined well sometime ago, will sink the bulk of the gamblers every time.

BetSelection and a more detailed explanation of posting guidelines and the 'aura' of the board:

We do not seek constant 'Needling' and 'Negativity' by members towards other members.  Provoking or annoying someone on a repetitive basis by especially the continual criticism or questioning, taunting, pestering, harassing, prodding, teasing, grouping up of 2-3-4 members and ganging up with the same come back/statement/questions towards another----will not be tolerated, not what we are about and is not what the highest bulk majority of those here seek. 

You can also add, "insinuation by proxy" which for those of you, that say what the heck is that?  Well, that is a slick wording of an insult, the turning around another member's words, or the covert wording of a derogatory and negative statement meant to provoke and prod the others, simple.  Not hard to figure out after a few continually engage with that on a regular and consistent basis. 

No need to taunt, pester, harasses any member here, if you don't enjoy, find interesting, learn and engage with them in a positive or a neutral way, skip their content.  If you disagree, post such and move on.  Do not continue the type of provocation and insulting remarks I mentioned above.  It will not be tolerated.

For those of you that desire to be disrespectful, cuss at and label the Admin/Moderators or Regular and Steady Members, demeaning and negative terms---I suggest you go do it to Keith, Sonya, Mike, or any of the others and see how long you last without a complete ban on their boards, as well as having your IP address blocked from even signing on their websites.

Quote from: esoito on June 16, 2018, 10:46:30 PM
A good question.  I've often wondered about that.

So come on, Mike. Rise to the occasion. It's not like you to remain silent!

Doesn't look like he will answer and he will not lie, as he is an honest poster.   Maybe, just maybe  he will probably come on and invoke the 5th amendment even though he is not from the USA.  That way he doesn't have to lie.   A great way out!

And Mike's 2 buddies here, Jimske and Soxfan we already have their answers, real casinos with huge infinite bankrolls, no details but always win with exact percentiles always quoted and claimed.  No peanuts and warm Irish beer needed, same lines. Same answers!! 

I'm very tempted to go through my phone and post one thread of scoreboards, tables, chips and cash-outs, I don't know why but I love them pictures.

Also, a question for Mike. 

Do you actually gamble in a B&M Casino?

Or, are you a mathematical teacher in a public or private school that is exercising his knoweldge here and attempting to apply it to gambling for the sake of engagement?

As you well know, I am more of a hands on type of guy and I would like to see and hear about some of your actual applications of your math skills and beliefs to casino action, if you actually do engage in that.

Just curious.  Thanks.

I found this on the board:


"I think "scammer" is too strong a word here. Looking at VRSEDGE's web site it seems that he's selling software tools which enable users to create their own systems based on parameters built into the platforms. There are no claims or guarantees that anyone will definitely win by using them. He is not selling a system or systems and claiming that they are infallible.

But since the forum has a new owner, perhaps a review of the rules regarding advertising and/or selling might be in order? There are several members doing this, including Gizmotron who is now looking for more students. I quote : "PM me if you want private tutoring." -- Gizmotron. (https://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/for-those-who-think-house-edge-or-negative-expectation-is-the-sole-culprit/msg63571/#msg63571) "

And it was posted by 'Mike'.  He has the same thing or variations of it posted in about 3 member's threads, Vrsedge's, Albalaha's and Gizmo's. 

I will clarify.  Refer to the Board's Rule #6 please.  More specifically, just a few words within that you in particular need to focus on, understand and absorb.  Here, I will make it a tad bit easier for you:

"No sales or published links of any kind to any commercial cause/website/program or item, without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators.

No direct selling or linking to a member's or member's affiliate of any kind without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators. "

As well: I posted yesterday the following;

Known members versus unknown members things are taking into a Different Light.

As far as selling something, a known member that's a real person, that has history here if that's what he does for a living or a legitimate sideline and he is known and has as a decent reputation along with that of his product, without giving an endorsement on behalf of the board, that's one story.  To me that's acceptable no matter who the member is.

Now if it's a person that signs on with no history or a few posts and all of a sudden he's selling some type of product or service and he never introduced himself and I don't know who he is and no references, entirely different picture and that is what's clearly not allowed.

And don't bring it where it's selective but it's an overall picture as to if it's a reputable member or an unknown member that's a possible scam. And again my board does not endorse any commercial product. And if I do endorse something, it means that I personally checked it out and I believe in it and I've done more research rather than just making sure the person is a reputable person and those are going to be few and far in-between, meaning the endorsements of commercial products or services on this board.

We all have seen on this board as well as numerous other boards of all kinds, the new or relatively new sign up member, comes on and greets everyone and immediately begins posting links to other sites of all types and then into direct sales.  Or, a variation where he will possibly accomplish 3 or 5 or even 10 posts and then enter into the same thing.  They usually do not do the latter because it takes time to do, even 30 mins of posting over a few days is way too much for these types.  A perfect example was that so-called gambling book author we had last year on this board.  But there are thousands of scammers, systems sellers, website gambling affiliates, etc.,  Those are the ones that are not allowed, will be axed and deleted as soon as they post. 

As I said, known members are viewed in a different light.  This is not an endorsement of their product or service, it is merely allowing them to express themselves, refer to their business or sideline, and allow them to use this board as a vehicle in a subtle way--even if it entails a commercial venture on their behalf.  However, it is no different than a shopping mall with a merchant that rents space from the mall.  The mall is not responsible for the content or the merchant's actions.  However, if the merchant is fraudulent or present himself in a non-professional way and becomes a liability for the mall, the mall can and will terminate his lease because he did not act within standard business and community practices.  Same here.  End of story.

Now, that should be enough and fully explains, 'what is what'.

This is hands down, the most comprehensive, technical, and best book about the subject, IMO.  It is also filled with great 'side-info' of sorts that can and will open many doors for those of you that are not 'super-math/statistical' freak-a-schizoids.

Title:  "The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic
Author:  Richard A. Epstein
Publisher:  Academic Press
First Edition:  1977
Revised Edition:  1995

I did not read the whole thing, but I had this on my list of publications to get for a very long time.  I finally got one used off of Amazon.  The book is in many ways above my head and level, but there are many interesting and useful things within it, that I do not regret getting in in anyway!  I should have got it a long time ago. 

Great reference tool beyond a doubt.  I would have to say it has almost all aspects covered. 

Chapters

1)  Kubeiagenesis
2)  Mathematical Preliminaries
3)  Fundamental Principals of a Theory of Gambling
4)  Coins, Wheels and Oddments
5)  Coups and Games with Dice
6)  The play of the Cards
7)  Blackjack
8   Contract Bridge
9)  Weighted Statistical Logic and Statistical Games
10) Games of Pure Skill and Competitive Computers
11)  Fallacies and Sophistries
Epilogue
Appendix Tables
Author Index
Subject Index



For Example in Chapter #3)  While technical like a lot of the book, there is great stuff that can lead a player down research paths that will certainly open doors into, 'insight', as I see it, IMO.

Lots and lots of references as well.  For someone that really gets into reading and researching anything, this is worth its weight in gold with ton of references and other publications, articles and works relating to gambling and casinos.

All the technical math/stats and gaming terms, lots of authors, tons of charts and explanations of those and the equations in 'almost' simplistic ways.  While geared towards more of the factual end of most everything, IMO--it is unbiased and years of research and writ combined. 

I cannot see how any serious player would not get this book for $30.00 or under.

Pictures of the Book:

[attach=1]

[attach=2]

[attach=3]

[attach=4]

[attach=5]

There is a section and relation to 'Guessing' as well with the author using 'Zener Cards', if you dot know what Zener cards are, we used them in college if I recall.  Goggle them. 

"Zener cards are cards used to conduct experiments for extrasensory perception (ESP) or clairvoyance. Perceptual psychologist Karl Zener (1903–1964) designed the cards in the early 1930s for experiments conducted with his colleague, parapsychologist J. B. Rhine (1895–1980). The original series of experiments have been discredited and replication has proved elusive."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zener_cards

[attach=6]

Link to preview on Amazon:

https://www.amazon.com/Theory-Gambling-Statistical-Logic-Revised/dp/012240761X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1529161074&sr=8-1&keywords=gambling+and+statistical+book#reader_012240761X

You know, on a side-ways affiliated note to education/training/workshops.  I have a wall full of certificates, completion awards and also certificates of achievement, all related to mostly paid courses of one type or another.  Benefiting off of any or all of them would solely depend on one's ability to use--translate--pick & choose--find areas of concern and interest to your needs, etc., then expanding your knoweldge with what was taught/instructed/brought to light, etc. 

If you cannot do something along those lines, you can sit in any university and stay there for 4 or 8 years, learn and become 'book-smart' and get a degree and yet--some high school kids might be able to our perform and out think you every day of the week in a certain profession.  Maybe those high school ks will not know advance trigonometry or calculus or some history of a great 1600's world leader or other university level items, but that does not preclude those high school kids from actually knowing more and performing better than the 4 or 8 year university graduate that sat there and learned, but failed to apply and use the bulk of what was taught to actually bridge the gap between 'schooling/education' and real-world application and interfacing with profession/career, etc. 

Same with gaming/gambling/casinos/seminars/training.  What Mark has to offer might open a path, that would allow someone to actually discover something he was unable to even recognize actually exists or is needed to formulate something that might very well help him be profitable or more profitable.  Mark might not teach in verbatim, 'how to win'--he might just be able to offer some smart player that is searching for ways to explore the roads, where the roads are, what are the roads, etc., to be profitable or more profitable?  Maybe, huh?

Oh and by the way read rule number 6 it specifically says, without the express permission of the moderators or the administration of this board. And Mark has my permission.