Known members versus unknown members things are taking into a Different Light.

As far as selling something, a known member that's a real person, that has history here if that's what he does for a living or a legitimate sideline and he is known and has as a decent reputation along with that of his product, without giving an endorsement on behalf of the board, that's one story.  To me that's acceptable no matter who the member is.

Now if it's a person that signs on with no history or a few posts and all of a sudden he's selling some type of product or service and he never introduced himself and I don't know who he is and no references, entirely different picture and that is what's clearly not allowed.

And don't bring it where it's selective but it's an overall picture as to if it's a reputable member or an unknown member that's a possible scam. And again my board does not endorse any commercial product. And if I do endorse something, it means that I personally checked it out and I believe in it and I've done more research rather than just making sure the person is a reputable person and those are going to be few and far in-between, meaning the endorsements of commercial products or services on this board.

Thank you that should answer your question or concern.

 
"Re: For those who think house edge or negative expectation is the sole culprit
« Reply #75 on: Yesterday at 02:10:42 AM »


Every bet will get this much variance for sure, in the long run. People seems to miss even a remedy for this.

If I say, there will be 500 wins of a number in 18500 spins and we can not get the scatter of the wins, most of the intelligent players around here will have a soar throat beating just that. If the number of win lessens to 450, they will lose thousands of chips and might be only losing all over. I have seen this clearly in my #3 challenge on zumma book. "
***********************************************************************************************************

I might be wrong, but I will take a min and run the numbers real quick.  This is why I am against 'the mathematical statistics' of any game.  Sure they are correct, but they are, and 100% dependent upon the long run as well.  Following a math or stat reasoning on a table game,  You might get some positive hits or even the once-in-a-while 'win' produced ration to losses, but what do you have to risk to get Point 'B' from within 'Point A'?

Point 'A'----The series referred to;

Point 'B'----The 'win' from the series.

Every game has been attack by the math and statistical pros from the classroom aspect.  They ran millions and billions of hands to find out, 'what happens'.  Fine.  Not wrong.  But cannot be applied in any real—shape and form, to give the player a 'real and definitive' edge. 

Why, simply because of what I just did.  Again, it might be wrong, but whatever.

500 Wins/18,500 Spins. 
2 Mins. Average a spin (in real life casinos) not on the computer of course.
2 Mins. Translates to 120 seconds.
That translates to 2,220,000 seconds
3,600 seconds in 1 hour.
To spin and play 18,500 spins to be assured (if math will assure every series, every time those wins) it would take 616 to 617 hours to play that series of spins.

Okay, Superman, lots of energy drinks and coffee, etc.  He plays it.  Stay there and plays straight through the 616-617 hours.  You cannot stop, walk away and continue later, like so many math/stat freaks think, because the 'series' will be gone—not the same one, etc.

Okay, back.  Straight through.  Superman (the math/stat freak believer) hires numerous people to play the 25 to 26 days straight. 

One unit, $25.00, one green chip.  Say the 500 wins are going to be straight up number, 1 unit yields 35 chips/units payout.  He would win, $25.00 X's 35, equals $875.00. POINT B: He wins a total of $437,500.00 on the 500 wins.  Likewise, 18,500 spins, minus the 500 wins, leaves 18,000 lost spins on that number.  18,000 times $25.00 chip that was lost to the casino. POINT A: He losses a total of $450.000.00.  Great. 

Every math/stat results would have to be played from the start to the end, to realize the math produced result, no? 

Or is there a way to sprinkle a bit of magical dust, somewhere along the way—during those series?

As Mark Twain said....."It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.  It's what you know for sure that just ain't so".

I wrote it back in February.

IMO, Variance really does mean volatility and variability.

That is where a complete clear vision, 100% consciousnesses, correct frame-of-mind, and all the other psych things in order and really in-tune to, will allow you to capitalize very nicely on any opportunities that present themselves.

Nudge--Bump.

Pretty good topic, fits along with many things thrown out into the limelight recently around here.....

Little 'King' at an Asian Restaurant.  Have you ever seen a pizza delivery to an Asian restaurant before?  My little king eating pizza at his mom's restaurant, at the counter, doing his thing! 

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[attach=2]

https://betselection.cc/math-statistics/situational-awareness/msg63604/?PHPSESSID=7cs392thf2v9bonuoooctfb381#msg63604

Situation Awareness.

And, yes variables do change within the course of gaming/gambling as well as changing within the course of a shoe, etc.  Most certainly

Worth reading, understanding and exploring, for those that really desire to understand what is possible and how you should approach casino gambling as well, IMO.  And, variables do change within the course of casino play, within the course of a baccarat shoe, within the course of spinning the roulette ball during a period of time, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situation_awareness

The article and others like it are great 'base' research and informational basics for players that truly want the understanding how the risk in the gaming business depends on certain things and length of play. desire to research, read, understand and use something in their own defense, etc.

Here is a few words as to what I am referring about, "Risk in the gaming business depends on the house advantage, standard deviation, bet size, and length of play".

In my own play, at least since 2000 and after, I attempt to stay 100% fully consciousness of 'length of play'.  Good Lord, do I know the down side of 4 hours or more or anything close to that, but a $10k or $20k win in the first hour or even 30 minuets, is extremely hard to walk to the cashier, cash out and leave.  But, once you truly understand casino mathematics, you can use them to your own advantage. 

Casino mathematics in no way shape or form, translates to every player will lose 'XYZ'% religiously, etc.  It means, if you play what the casino sets as "average bet, bet size, and length of play with whatever hold percentage they use", that will generally translate to what you should lose if you play 4 hours or greater a day.  Not what you have to lose or are certainly going to lose.  Likewise, you might, and as well-you might not. 

That is why virtually every comp is based upon '4 hours' of play being inserted with the other parameters.  Unless a floor person or host hand writes the comp based upon your known play and history, etc., at the property. 

I received permission from Dr. David G. Schwartz, today to link to the article (but not to reproduce the content of the article on our site), 'Understanding Casino Math', which I think is a very well written and effective article for many purposes.  Showing how casinos use math, a basic understanding of casino math and how the casino related writers refer to 'HAs', etc. 

I do think this is an important work and certainly has value to use as a base of understanding from many aspects and points of view.

The author, recently past away and I will include a link as to whom he was as well.  He has written numerous things relating to casinos and players. 

Permission granted through, Dr. David G. Schwartz, Director, UNLV, Center for Gaming Research, 4505 Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154-7010. 

"This guide, written by casino math professor Robert Hannum, contains a brief, non-technical discussion of the basic mathematics governing casino games and shows how casinos make money from these games. The article addresses a variety of topics, including house advantage, confusion about win rates, game volatility, player value and comp policies, casino pricing mistakes, and regulatory issues. Statistical advantages associated with the major games are also provided."

http://gaming.unlv.edu/casinomath.html

Reference the author:

He was affiliated with the University of Denver:  http://news.du.edu/remembering-professor-robert-hannum/

From the author's website:  http://mysite.du.edu/~rhannum/

Rules and Enforceable Guidelines

#1  First and foremost personal and family privacy is sacrosanct here in BetSelection.cc, members and staff alike bear a responsibility for reporting such violations immediately. We take privacy seriously. We have zero tolerance for invasions of privacy, which includes publishing anything including links and other information/contact data, etc., to any member of this board for any reason whatsoever without the express consent and permission of the member you link or other information refers to.

#2  Our staff is not immune to these rules. As much as there are temporary mutes and permanent bans for members, we can remove moderators temporarily or even ban them entirely from exercising such duties in response to complaints from members. The correct course of action to contest a mod action is to open a thread in our Council section. We are malleable. Rules are for everyone here in BetSelection.cc

#3  To maintain harmony on the forum we ask that all members refrain from making any comments about ethnicity, religion or politics.  Such comments can so often lead to inflammatory, defensive posts from others. We don't want such a thing happening here.

Please Note:  You can describe others in your writings with the use of Nationalities, Male/Female, Age, Appearances, etc., in a generic, neutral and general way without those descriptions being used for derogatory or harmful purposes to the party involved.  We do not allow the use of ethnic, religious, political, gender, etc., comments regarding an individual on this board or otherwise when used in a specific manner that is inflammatory, defensive and judgmental against that individual.   

#4  It goes without saying: No trolling. No name calling. And no personal attacks on individual members because you dislike, or disagree with, what they wrote.

No pestering, badgering, following/chasing around the forum ad continually posting in a challenging, defensive and/or aggressive type of message to any member.  A certain level of respect should be maintained by all members and at the very least, a level of neutrality will generally accomplish just that.

No, 'Belittling--Chastising--Humiliation--Degradation' is allowed.  PM's are to remain private between the 2 parties involved at all times.

Copy & Pasting of any PM without the original senders permission of such, is a blatant and forbidden violation of this board:  Simply, 'copy & pasting' a 'PM' on our board or any other message board/forum/website is dead-on wrong and against our rules.  A 'PM' is a private message and a contract to remain private which was conveyed and took place over the messaging system within BetSelection.  Without the permission of the original sender, the entire message remains private and confidential between the two parties.   

#5  We also ask fellow posters to refrain from using 4-letter words in their posts. By that we mean words associated with procreation, private body-parts and bodily functions in particular.

#6   No posting or uploading material which is available commercially or still subject to copyright.

No sales or published links of any kind to any commercial cause/website/program or item, without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators.

No direct selling or linking to a member?s or member?s affiliate of any kind without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators.   

Copying & Pasting: Within normal use, responses, references and dialogs, the linking or copying & pasting of YouTube items, news items, and other publicly published items of a general nature, can be linked or copy & pasted if there are no warnings that same cannot be done.

However, research and technical articles, University/Trade School/Consultants published info and data on the internet or otherwise, other related material, will almost always have a disclosure, warning and/or instructions, within the article/info about the publishing/copy and pasting/linking of it, etc.

Those warnings must be followed exactly with a copy of the permission being forwarded to the Board Moderators and/or the Administrators prior to your posting of that type of posting.

Small passages from a published novel, fiction or non-fiction books, etc., there should be no problem with quoting, along with full reference to the publication such as, Book Title, Author's Name, Publication Date and the Publishing House.

#7  Since this is a space for posting and analyzing bets for making conclusions: No bloviating, no hinting-only.

#8  We reserve the right to fully or partially edit, reinstate or remove content from posts and issue bans for any "reasonable reason" as considered by the staff, including a member or thread not matching our site's productive spirit.

#9  No Real-money betting among members allowed.

#10  Please note this is an English-speaking forum. While we welcome people from all over the world to enjoy us, we kindly ask that all posts are always written in English only. This way we all keep a common ground to foster union.

#11  Personal links to a members or other persons email, website, or other message board/forum of any kind (including those of the casino/gambling/gaming nature) must be approved by a Board Moderator or one of the Administrators, prior to such placement within a post/thread.

#12  If anyone brings up, makes reference to, copy & paste, links to---any other board with a derogatory, negative, drama seeking post that anyone made here on BetSelection then it will be deleted, and the member will quite likely invoke a consequence.  The same applies to bringing up previous postings on BetSelection.  Simple -- don?t do it.

Violations of the above may result in a discussion, warning, or a form of moderation from temporary to permanent, depending on the type and repetitiveness of the violation(s). 

 Adding to the Series of 10 as #10-A in a Series of 10.

Quote from: Albalaha on June 08, 2018, 02:46:13 AM
---Mike

Baccarat is a game of independent trials. Do not assert wrong things.

Further, which math book did you refer who taught you that roulette being a game of independent trials, unbeatable?

Who told you that I am looking for past outcomes to determine my way of playing?

Have you heard of "the law of large numbers"? It is a law and not a "theory", I hope you know the difference between the two.

Which physics book told you that you can get an edge in roulette with any study of physics? Winning roulette with physics is a theory and not a law.

Thing is, people who read too many forums have got more unrealistic and unscientific approaches towards gambling than a layman. We all assert our views without putting any evidence. Anybody getting influenced with our writings could get biased and thus harmed, inadvertently.

I feel ashamed to see approaches like "Pattern Breaker", which is one of the worst way of playing possible in our forums. Martingale is the nectar of obvious death. It is the worst thing that ever happened to gambling. Put all you have at risk to win 1 unit. Anyways, we are all adults here and thus responsible for whatever we learn.

I like Mike's posts and comments. They are very close to reality and mostly accurate. I like Xander's posts too. He has got his own set of experiences of the advantage play for decades and I got to see a bit of how he does that. Unfortunately, at times, he goes too far and people do not seem to like that.

Regarding Gizmotron, he is very different from us. He talks of patterns identification and exploiting them. Mathematicians expressly deny that patterns do not help in gambling. They are only illusions. As Mike said earlier, a pattern could end or continue whenever we try that, with equal probability. I believe that Gizmo might be having something that could work differently than we think but he could not be able to convince us on that, so far.

We can still co-exist and behave in a mature manner.

An excellent 'open-minded' post about interpretation and application.  Which would be individualistic to each of us. 

Thanks Albalaha for the great expression and posting.

Posting/Engagement on BetSelection & Some Other Things

Regarding the posting and engagement within threads here on BetSelection, I will offer the following.  This is not a complete and definitive list by any means.

More or less, guidelines and an expression of my vision, thoughts, what I believe the correct aura and reflection should be for the board here. 

Engage, but engage in a gentlemanly and proper engagement.  This is not the easiest thing to put into words or protocol.  But, I have to put something in as a start and here goes.    I ask you to engage in the proper way, not a '1-line' sketchy, redundant, universal-fit all, 'never really answering/defining a point' but just reinforcing a generic stance of mostly others, etc.  But do not confuse what I just said with that of a proper, short and concise 'defense' whereupon you choose not to go into great detail for sake of not repeating yourself in the defensive efforts of something you posted, etc. 

IMO and that of countless others, things are not explained many times on message boards and many readers interpret those '1-Liners', especially the seemingly negative and strong ones that are extremely repetitive, redundant and thrown out there time and time again with a few other members ganging up and 'bullying' those that actually do desire to engage past the level of sidewalk-yelling and street sparring. 

State your case and if that happens to be a line of total stuff, theory, reasoning, weird or out-of-left field things, great.  So be it.  If it is based all on mathematical, statistical, educational, classroom, long proven theories, textbook knowledge, whatever, great also.  So be it.  Both sides and anything else is totally acceptable.  But explain, engage and defend with gentlemen like tones and over views, summations, monologues and closures, etc., etc., and so on.  Stop the attack mode, the strutting up and pushing an OP's/Members shoulders and provoking, because that is wrong, dead on wrong. 

We are a gambling board with a bit more technical, professional and experience than the recreational gambler consumerish type of message board out there with a few sections/rooms on certain types of table games and slots.  Anything and everything in proportion to gambling, casinos on-line, etc., is allowed--unlike what some think or attempt to enforce or embarrass others into believing it also, where they only desire pure wagering related threads and discussions.  If you don't like it, if you don't like the author, enjoy the author, find the author interesting or useful, if you do not think you can learn anything form the author or member, if you cannot turn what the author or member did wrong into a positive path or finding, etc., etc., just skip the author/member's postings and threads.  Do not engage, stop the conflict and the holding down of anyone for anything.  Move on, the exact same as you do in a book store or a supermarket, no different, none whatsoever. 

Please act and post/answer in a sportsmanship like conduct, that is all I ask and desire.  Because when you do post, you are setting the tone and aura for this board, our board, your board, your base, other people's/member's bases, it is all one place, period.   

As far as the on-going debate and stance of gambling, casino playing, and 'Us' players and members of the board.  The bottom line with the current arguments and stances on this board is really derived from the 3-Ways of wagering while gambling, with whatever style of gambling you might subscribe to.  The way I define and see it, are the following.  Style A)  Mathematical, statistical, following the published and historical beliefs by the already deemed 'greats' of the various industries and past, long run adherence, pre-scheduled protocols and everything else along those lines;  Style B) Employing experience, reality recognition, complete clear vision, in tune with psych----emotional and self-guidance that you believe provides yourself the best path to profits and everything else along those lines;  Style C) Anything and everything else anyone finds, believes in, attempts, gambles with or by or because of and anything else along those lines. 

So are the numbers and results of one style going to outdo and outperform with certainty, protocol and that long-term continued profit, etc., against the others?  Is your way the only way?  So, since others came on here to write about,'their way' because they have found whatever it is they have realized or think they do, so wrong?  Will they eventually go broke or give back what they claim they profited by the employment of their style, so wrong?  Will they eventually get rich employing their style?  Will they eventually find their 'way' turns negative, etc., etc., and so on?  Maybe, maybe not, possibly, yes, no, could be, never.  I don't know and you don't definitely know either, in most cases anyways. 

That is why we have this message board and discussions.  Use it as such.  But do it with the proper engagement and sportsmanship like conduct, which is what I ask.  Unlike Vic, I gamble and I gamble very actively, I post and I have hard-core feelings and beliefs.  Those have nothing to do with the Admin side of the transition we are going through.  However, I might be a bit more involved on the baccarat and B&M casino table game side than the other sides as far as the content and my own personal results and endeavors, etc.  But the personal side will not and does not control the Admin side of what I have to do.  And, if it does I am sure one of the other Mods will point it out to me and I will be adjusted.   

Everyone here, IMO that has any experience on other message boards, gambling or otherwise (Admit it or not) knows you cannot go on those other boards and express a certain steadfast type of stern, strong, apparently your own fixed protocol, fashioned under the premise of being extremely educated, no room for neutralizing, not (NOT) believing someone else has something that can help another, 'open a path' let everyone speak, etc., except I will dominate and attempt control because I am right and there are no other legit ways no matter what anyone is really doing in reality, type of aura.  It does not fly. 

You can post anything you want in regards to gambling, don't get me wrong and don't twist what I am saying.  Just post it, explain it, defend it and don't push it upon everyone and everything and then reduce yourself to one sentence definitive and repetitive lines which tosses that proverbial monkey wrench into the arena, stopping community involvement because most members do not desire to dance and attempt to appease that drunk in the middle of a busy intersection.

Simply, if you don't agree, don't like the OP/member or his/her personality, messages, content, results, etc., just skip over it after you state your initial case.  This is not a sparring contest.  And do not misinterpret what I just laid out as being restrictive and weird?Because it is not.  Also, if 2 or more members want to actually spar in a thread---that is okay, but keep it to those member's threads that actually desire that, NOT universally across the board with most every thread.

Finally, if you do not agree or find the means to live with I outlined, you can simply find a suitable base elsewhere.  Oh yeah, while I am on the subject, I bought the board here from Vic because I have a certain vision and purpose.  Including adding practice and live tables for various reasons, instruction, competition, etc.  Producing podcasts, live studio type of programming, interviews and industry related material and activities, etc.  I did not purchase the board to rule it 'have it all my way' censor or anything else of the nature a few other members came up with.  Vic lost interest and is assuming other avenues rather than the message board and platform venue we have here.

I want the board to be everyone's board but I want a friendly, neutral, read what you want and engage with whom you have interests with and find purpose and reason for being here.  Use it as a base or not, but don't provoke, spar and chase those around the board that have a different purpose or pursuits you might not fully agree with. 

I hope that explains my vision and what I am doing with some of the reasons why.

I attempted to discuss with Xander the aura and the nature of some/quite a bit of his posting on the board and he became aggressive, defensive and 1 sided-1 way to the max.  I really did desire to be neutral with him and kind of ?wipe the slate clean? such as I did with ?GreenGuy?, bringing him back and active from full-ban status, etc. 

I asked Xander, plainly to be a bit more respectful, some other stuff and mostly to stop the ?one-liners? and ?one liner hits?, because they are offensive types of innuendoes the majority of the time and with his repetitiveness he demonstrates, he does become dominate with that very type of posting.  Problem being, not the content?but the aura of it and it attacks many others that are part and make up this community.  I have had numerous complaints about him and a handful of others that do what he does to a much lesser point.  My analogy to it is a drunk person walking down the sidewalk minding his own business or sitting on the bus bench not bothering anyone?generally doesn?t get brought to the attention of the police.  But, the drunk person jumping up and down and causes havoc by dancing in the middle of the intersection will get immediate confrontation, handcuffing usually following a scuffle and then jail. 

Anyway, I really tried the past 48 hours or so to talk with Xander, I wasn?t getting anywhere except attacked.  All fine.  I stated my case to him and I told him, we don?t have to be friends on here, just exists and be respectful to everyone, in so many words.  Once you disagree, move on?stop the constant and repetitive ?chasing? with the one-liners.  Engage the proper way or move on, in so many words. 

Xander, re-contacted me after that very late the other night and wanted to engage in industry related talk/discussion and so on.  I simply answered him, ?Why are you still contacting me?, etc.  He stopped at that point.  Last night, I sent him about 3 PM messages and stated my case one more time and to cease and desist the disrespect, the repetitiveness of the one-liners, when others go to great trouble, detail and explanation of their sides and he persists with the one-liners and just adds a derogatory and negative aura that turns so many off and actually does stop others from posting or they cut back at posting.  In other words, he desires to spar but fails to engage in the proper way with a decent amount of ?anything? except what I mentioned.  This is not an isolated one-time thing with myself or another. 

Xander is a master of ?twisting and turning? of other?s statements/beliefs and posts.  He picks a word or two from a sentence, or a sentence from a paragraph, or a paragraph from a longer more detailed posting and then uses the twisted and turned, isolated words/words, against the OP/member.

That is wrong?dead on wrong?unless it is done in complete friendship, fun and humor with longtime friendship type of situations.  And that is NOT what Xander and a few others do. 

Another issue that I will not get into here is a more serious one with copy and pasting of research, technical and report type of work without the proper citation and/or written permission as stated within those copy and pasted works.  We are not referring to YouTube, News Articles, Websites links, etc.  Xander clearly violated them with aggressive and defensive and negative actions towards BetSelection and myself in regards to that area.

I am personally tired of it and will not have that ype of aura and behavior on this board.  It does not happen on most other boards, especially those with more of a technical, factual, and professional aura rather than the consumerish ?he said-she said? type of boards. 

For the gist of it and in summation, those are the reasons I placed Xander into ?pre-moderation? last night and then he decided to name call, demean and say certain things we don?t need to go into here.  Another official of the board up?d the moderation level after mine.  I hope this explains or enlightens the action, it fits along with the other 2 areas I am in the process of posting today; Rules of BetSelction; and Posting/Engagement Guidleines and Aura. 

I do wholeheartedly believe that we have a much more lenient moderation and tolerance policy/aura than the other boards out there.  However, I will not have a 'free for all'.  No way--shape--or form. 

There Are No Laws of Physics. There's Only the Landscape.


https://www.quantamagazine.org/there-are-no-laws-of-physics-there's-only-the-landscape-20180604/