Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 05, 2018, 10:28:10 PM
There's an interesting line of thought suggesting that the first half or 2/3 results of a shoe will slightly affect the probability of the remaining outcomes.

More later.

as.

And in the highest majority of the cases, correct and IMO & experience.  Hence, 'sections and turning points' familiarization and focusing on.

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Christmas and Holiday Season

The Christmas season, also called the festive season, or the holiday season (mainly in the U.S. and Canada; often simply called the holidays), is an annually recurring period recognized in many Western and Western-influenced countries that is generally considered to run from late November to early January. It is defined as incorporating at least Christmas, and usually New Year, and sometimes various other holidays and festivals. It also is associated with a period of shopping which comprises a peak season for the retail sector (the "Christmas (or holiday) shopping season"), and a period of sales at the end of the season (the "January sales"). Christmas window displays and Christmas tree lighting ceremonies when trees decorated with ornaments and light bulbs are illuminated, are traditions in many areas.

In the denominations of Western Christianity, the term "Christmas season" is considered synonymous with Christmastide, a term associated with Yuletide, which runs from December 25 (Christmas Day) to January 5 (Epiphany Eve), popularly known as the 12 Days of Christmas. However, as the economic impact involving the anticipatory lead-up to Christmas Day grew in America and Europe into the 19th and 20th centuries, the term "Christmas season" began to become synonymous instead with the traditional Christian Advent season, the period observed in Western Christianity from the fourth Sunday before Christmas Day until Christmas Day itself. The term "Advent calendar" survives in secular Western parlance as a term referring to a countdown to Christmas Day from the beginning of December.
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With that said, I sincerely wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season, whatever it is you might observe and/or celebrate.

I look forward to Santa Claus and the good will and gesture Old Saint Nick brings along with him, I know my kids are too! 

So Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of you! 

From, Alrelax (Glen)


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P.S. 


Santa Claus, also known as Saint Nicholas, Kris Kringle, Father Christmas, or simply Santa, is a legendary figure originating in Western Christian culture who is said to bring gifts to the homes of well-behaved ("good" or "nice") children on Christmas Eve (24 December) and the early morning hours of Christmas Day (25 December). The modern Santa Claus grew out of traditions surrounding the historical Saint Nicholas (a fourth-century Greek bishop and gift-giver of Myra), the British figure of Father Christmas and the Dutch figure of Sinterklaas (himself also based on Saint Nicholas). Some maintain Santa Claus also absorbed elements of the Germanic god Wodan, who was associated with the pagan midwinter event of Yule and led the Wild Hunt, a ghostly procession through the sky.
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I personally have adopted the following:  Santa is really the only cultural icon we have who's male, does not carry a gun, and is all about peace, joy, giving, and caring for other people. That's part of the magic for me, especially in a culture where we've become so commercialized and hooked into manufactured icons. Santa is much more organic, integral, connected to the past, and therefore connected to the future.     

The human factor, the desire, the greed, the thoughts, the rush of winning money and all that!

No matter what you say, no matter what you figure on the computer, no matter how great your will power is, no matter how your math and stats add up to being rock solid, no matter anything, you will always have that influence brought on by the first sentence I wrote here.

If you don't, then you never won a sizable amount as compared to your buy in, within a live casino.  It changes things, lots of things and changes them real darn quick.

Knowing, Experience, The Difficulty, Balanced versus Non-Balanced versus Opportunities.  Those will also play huge roles in the outcome of your live B&M gambling sessions.  Again, if you are not affected by those things or believe in them, then you never won a sizable amount as compared to your buy in, within a live casino. 

The following is about H-Money (my Asian friend I used to write about until several on here blasted me about and questioned why I write about him or that he does not exist).  Anyway, we were at the casino last weekend.  A guy he knows very well from the Asian community was playing blackjack.  A relatively new player, maybe a year or two experience.  Usually buys in for $2,000.00 or so on the average.  Plays at a $5.00 to $500.00 table, 2 or 3 hands. 

I took a break from a baccarat shoe and went out of the baccarat room and found H-Money.  He was standing behind that blackjack player friend of his and cheering him on, with 4 or 5 other people.  The guy was up well over $25,000.00.  Playing 2 and 3 hands at up to $500.00 each hand.  Could not lose.  Was standing on dealer's 7s and 8s when he had 12s to 16s.  His reasoning was the dealer would have to pull if anything other than a 9, 10 or A came out.  And almost every time that is what happened.  A small card under the dealers up card of 7 or 8 and then pulls a 10 and busts. 

Everyone kept saying $50k or $100k in their native languages.  You could see the look, the smile, the glowing aroma of the guy playing.  Yes, no play, no win.  No pain, no gain.  If you stop playing you can't win any more.  I know all that.

By the end of the night, all gone.  He gave it all back and then some.  He was even borrowing money from everyone to continue and get all the win money that he lost, back again.  It was the most he ever won and he lost it all. 

It is not the way to play, it is sad, but so real.  It is the reality of the casino, the games, and every player.  I have protections built in against this stuff and when I win something sizable, I employ my protection and become 10 times more aware of what might or might not happen than during my previous play of winning. 

Only fair to give 'HIM' some defensive time within my posting here.  Here is his version of how everything that was done to him was illegal:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOtHh07lFFM

Well said!  Watch.  Reality is hard to swallow or even believe for the fiction writers that attempt to convince others that systems they are selling or their mathematical ways such as used in the movie 21, will make your rich with ease, LOL:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6x99i01D1JQ

The gullible people of the internet, the gullible and simply super naive people thinking that they can get rich gambling:

"Mark Thomas Georgantas knows how to beat baccarat, blackjack, craps and roulette in Las Vegas.  He's producing a documentary about his system. Just fork over a few grand, and he'll show you how it's done.  "Once you experience winning with the 'Biggins Craps System', "you will never look at gaming the same", he told potential investors. "Talk about living the dream. Where else can you fall out of bed, go downstairs to a table, win, and go to cashier? No employees, no boss, no inventory, no hassle. Pure cash, baby!"
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'LMAO!  Sad, but always been 100% true, correct and spot on!  I promise you.  But hey, don't believe me, don't believe the State of Nevada, Don't believe 30 to 50 other states within the USA alone, believe the internet ad and the message board people promising you tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands in gambling returns for merely following their system that no one else ever tried or knows about!

Once again the MIT team brought up in another sales pitch, that move 21, made a lot of con men a heck of a lot of money!  Also great ammunition for lots of message board people that use it as defense to their mathematical concoctions describing their statistical rock solid holy grail, etc.
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PART 1:  2016
https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/local-las-vegas/pure-cash-promise-to-beat-las-vegas-casinos-leads-to-indictment/
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PART 2:  March 2018
Sentencing delayed for man accused of Las Vegas casino scam

Mark Georgantas, second from right, who persuaded people to give him money for what prosecutors said was a casino scam, waits to be sentenced at the Regional Justice Center in Las Vegas on Feb. 26, 2018. Georgantas was granted a 30-day continuance. K.M. Cannon Las Vegas Review-Journal @KMCannonPhoto

Mark Georgantas, right, who persuaded people to give him money for what prosecutors said was a casino scam, talks to his attorney, Caesar Almase, before he was scheduled to be sentenced at the Regional Justice Center in Las Vegas on Feb. 26, 2018. Georgantas was granted a 30-day continuance. K.M. Cannon Las Vegas Review-Journal @KMCannonPhoto

Mark Georgantas, who persuaded people to give him money for what prosecutors said was a casino scam, after he was granted a 30-day continuance at his sentencing at the Regional Justice Center in Las Vegas on Feb. 26, 2018. K.M. Cannon Las Vegas Review-Journal

By David Ferrara / Las Vegas Review-Journal
March 5, 2018 - 6:06 pm
 
Updated March 5, 2018 - 9:49 pm

'Mr. Smooth' walked into court with a limp.  Mark Georgantas, a 55-year-old felon whose other aliases include 'Mark Gigantis' and 'Mark G,' shuffled through the Regional Justice Center on Monday with the aid of a cane.  More than four months after agreeing to pay back nearly half a million dollars in connection with a "pure cash" promise of beating Las Vegas casino pit games, Georgantas persuaded a judge to postpone his sentencing, which initially was scheduled for last month.  He needs hip replacement surgery, said his lawyer, Caesar Almase.  In late October, Georgantas, who calls himself a "creative gaming enthusiast," pleaded guilty to one count of theft. He also agreed to pay $408,000 to eight different victims and be placed on house arrest until the judge hands down his sentence.
Part of the deal he cut with prosecutors stated that his $500,000 bail could be reinstated if he withdrew his plea, hired a new attorney or did anything else causing delay in sentencing."

Should Georgantas fail to appear at future court hearings, he agreed not to oppose being sentenced as a habitual criminal. He has a documented history of running from the law and people who lend him cash.

On Monday, District Judge Stefany Miley asked for further proof of an operation scheduled for April 9. Georgantas has long complained of hip trouble, and his potential surgery was anticipated at the time of his plea.  Prosecutors have agreed to a sentence of two to five years in prison. Georgantas is technically eligible for parole, but he also could be sentenced to up to 10 years behind bars.
He's due back in court a week before the surgery, and Almase promised that Georgantas would return to court later that month "with regards to his prognosis and an estimation on his post-op recovery."

Nearly two years ago, Georgantas, who rejects the label of con man, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he beat games like blackjack, roulette and craps on his own. Prosecutors characterized his "Biggins Craps System" and other methods to beat the houses built on lost bets as fraud, but they dropped that charge after Georgantas pleaded guilty.

Georgantas' record stretches to California, where he has been convicted of conspiracy and grand theft, once escaped jail through a storm drain and walked away from a trial on credit card fraud charges connected to purchases he made for Fire On Ice Inc., a business he still lists on LinkedIn and Facebook profiles.

In Las Vegas, prosecutors presented Georgantas' elaborate casino scheme to a grand jury, and he spent three months on the lam after being indicted. As investigators approached him in April 2016 at Mr. Lucky's, a 24-hour diner in the Hard Rock Hotel, Georgantas jumped over a half wall, faked a heart attack and tried to run, according to prosecutors.

Georgantas said he initially thought someone was attacking him for his cash. He said he spent the next three days hospitalized with symptoms of adult-onset diabetes.
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PART 3:  TODAY

Here is the current, and what is the surprise?  Are you really surprised?  Are you still in the guy's corner?  Do you still believe in systems and sellers and the likes of the gambler con man then steals money from people that read our message boards?  And I am the bad one because I expose the reality, the real B&M play, the real experiences and the real things happening or happened at various baccarat tables? 

CURRENT:  August 2018:
Alleged Las Vegas con man skips sentencing, loses plea deal

Mark Georgantas, second from right, who persuaded people to give him money for what prosecutors said was a casino scam, waits to be sentenced at the Regional Justice Center in Las Vegas on Feb. 26, 2018. Georgantas was granted a 30-day continuance. K.M. Cannon Las Vegas Review-Journal @KMCannonPhoto

Mark Georgantas, who persuaded people to give him money for what prosecutors said was a casino scam, after he was granted a 30-day continuance at his sentencing at the Regional Justice Center in Las Vegas on Feb. 26, 2018. K.M. Cannon Las Vegas Review-Journal

By David Ferrara / Las Vegas Review-Journal
August 15, 2018 - 5:09 pm

Mark Georgantas, an alleged Las Vegas casino scammer, knew that skipping court on Wednesday could expose him to five times as many years in prison.  He acknowledged as much while discussing his case in a video posted on YouTube two weeks ago, anticipating his sentencing hearing and displaying an ankle bracelet tracking device.  But when District Judge Stefany Miley called Georgantas's name Wednesday morning, she looked up and saw only his attorney, Michael Pandullo, standing beside the defense table.

"He's currently in the hospital," Pandullo told the judge without offering further details about Georgantas' condition or where he was hospitalized.  Georgantas, a felon whose aliases include 'Mr. Smooth,' 'Mark Gigantis' and 'Mark G', has a documented history of running from the law and people who lend him cash.  Miley immediately issued an arrest warrant with a $500,000 bail at the request of Deputy Attorney General Michael Viets, who indicated that prosecutors now could seek to pursue habitual criminal status against Georgantas.

"This gentleman is well-familiar with the system," the judge said.   That means the plea deal he accepted in late October for a sentence of two to five years in prison on one count of theft is essentially off the table. Prosecutors can now argue for putting him behind bars for 10 to 25 years. Georgantas has felony convictions in California, where he once abandoned a trial and later escaped from a minimum-security facility through a storm drain.

On paper, Georgantas accepted a deal late last year to pay back nearly half a million dollars in connection with a "pure cash" promise of beating Las Vegas casino pit games. Then he persuaded the judge to postpone his sentencing, initially scheduled for February. He said he needed hip replacement surgery, which was supposed to have been performed in April. He promised to return for sentencing.
But in the video, Georgantas suggested a desire to withdraw his plea.

"It's not even a legal plea," Georgantas said in the video, apparently recorded at a Starbucks.  Nevada prosecutors said Georgantas convinced at least two people to give him more than $350,000 in a promise to beat casino pit games. Georgantas told two men that he could win regularly at baccarat, blackjack, craps and roulette in Las Vegas, prosecutors said. He promised to always walk out of a casino with a profit.

Talking about his case and eventual plea on video, Georgantas said, "It's all lies just to get me to fall on the sword."  He seemed convinced that the men who said he stole from them would "never show up for trial."  But one of Georgantas' victims, Evan Rodich, arrived at the Regional Justice Center on Wednesday, prepared to speak at the sentencing hearing about how the defendant had affected his life.

Another man who sat in the courtroom gallery, Michael McDonald, had posted the video earlier this month. Asked about the hospitalization, McDonald would say only that Georgantas suffered from "debilitating hip issues."
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"Georgantas told two men that he could win regularly at baccarat, blackjack, craps and roulette in Las Vegas, prosecutors said. He promised to always walk out of a casino with a profit."

When I read that a minute ago, I should not have taken that sip of my coffee!  It went right out of my nose and unto my desk! 

Happy Monday everyone!  Alrelax, AKA: 'The Bad One' & 'The Notorious Blogger'. 

I do not play systems, although some systems make sense if you can pick them apart and use what you can use in your style of play.  Possibly, it could be profitable that's another story and another area.

Victor wants to expand upon his systems within his computer programming on computer type of play.  I don't know anything about it and I don't get involved in this.

Kind of like Motocross dirt bike racing and racing bikes on asphalt or drag racing. Or possibly another analogy of fast food restaurant dining versus cooking your own food.

Asym,

There are many things that a player can do that will harm himself (quickly or eventually) when gambling at baccarat.  Some self-induced and others are there and never noticed by the players.

I tried to define what I wholeheartedly think can help many serious baccarat players, which is my "Sections & Turning Points" thread.

Problem is with baccarat, many on the forums here want and demand tangible, mathematical and statistical results to back up wagering.  IT DOES NOT EXIST & NEVER WILL.

There are so many paradoxical happenings and interpretations, that can be capitalized on and used in enormous profitable ways, or just used as a safeguard for players.  Open your minds and better your play. 

Quote from: Jimske on November 23, 2018, 09:53:03 PM
One thing about stadium at MoSun you can sit there with your IPAD and watch a movie on Netflix and just bet 5 bucks or nothing until your stuff comes up. LOL  And you can watch two games at a time!  No smoking, no yelling, no waiting for somebody to squeeze the stupid cards!  hahahaha

Probably another post is better to discuss pros and cons of your comment, but yes, there are two different types of play in baccarat.

Camaraderie and the original big table or even Midi/Macau style can produce larger, well coordinated wins, especially for those that gamble for that style.  Then there is most certainly the grind or the relaxed or slot machine style loner play with the newer stadium the past few years. 

Quote from: Jimske on November 23, 2018, 06:38:56 PM
I don't want to change the theme of this thread but I'll comment anyway.  So one could say just flat bet or no bet until such a time when a "possibility" or pattern or streak exists than bet and if win first one or two bets keep bumping up hoping for those "infrequents" to continue.  Say double up or UAYW Fibonacci as example.

Seems plausible but those "in betweens" may very well out number the big wins.

"Seems plausible but those "in betweens" may very well out number the big wins. "

Yes, possibly we are on the same page here? 

Hence, you have to wager/play to make money.  Sitting there and not wagering and missing opportunities/events only frustrates and plays on the player's emotions and thought process.  Like someone standing there behind you, telling everyone what it has to be and then saying, "see I told you" or if they were wrong, "sorry, that is what I thought" and shrugging their shoulders.

But, the in-between times are 'absolute terror times' on most players or another way of saying it, 'gave back all of the win and then some' times. 

Asym,

It all boils down to, how many times the 'event' (whatever it might be) happens and the players catches it, sees it, or capitalizes on it.

Many will attempt to turn all that around and convert it all into math, stats, patterns and trends, etc.  Which cannot be accurately done.

Non of them will consistently reoccur within any set parameters, no matter how a person tries to run the theory. 

Better understanding of that and the game is experience.  The problem for most is the lack of funds to their continual depleting of what they believe is the ideal bank roll or buy-in, etc.

Personally I can make huge amounts of profit on a 7 or 10 or 14 chop-chop streak or a 12 repeating P or B streak in a row, as well 8 times (16 hands) doubles or anyone of countless other events.  The problem lies in between those events and profitable times as to each of our 'cooling off' periods and how we each handle those.  Almost all the time, people cannot cool off or stop playing and thus the disaster will strike.  Probably 99.98 to 99.99.9% of the times players win.  IMO and Experience.

Again, problem being, player observation, awareness, beliefs and betting decision to coincide with events that are happening.

Quote from: Jimske on November 16, 2018, 02:25:17 PM


\  Don't you think people should be able to endorse gambling systems?  How about a special section for system sellers?

No problem!  They are in a commercial venture, they can sponsor and pay advertising.  There is nothing wrong with the system sellers, book authors selling or promoting their books, or any other gaming commercial venture, but they have to sponsor and pay with ad space.

They have to disclose as well. 

BTW, this particular author/system seller came on the board (in the back door) and promoted before exposure with numerous handles/member names all from the same IP address and all saying how great and how much they were all making giving reviews of Tabone's systems and books, etc. 

But in general, no problem, buy add space and support the board and advertise in an open and honest and disclosed manner.

Quote from: Kimo Li on November 15, 2018, 05:40:46 PM
I believe one of the primary functions of a roulette forum is to inform roulette players about the dangers of playing roulette, especially to those who lack experience.

For instance, the dreadful draw down, an inevitable occurrence, it may strike at the beginning, the middle, or the end of a session. How a roulette player deals that kind of adversity separates the professional from the amateur.

The consistent actions taken by a roulette player to offset the unavoidable drawn down is the hallmark of a professional roulette player.

And you are IMO, 110% correct.  I tried to do exactly what you said w/Baccarat on this board. 

Quote from: Kimo Li on November 13, 2018, 02:23:50 PM
Understanding the essence behind any story offers a glimpse of the gambler's mind.

Your response depicts your perspective towards gambling; perhaps only searching for answers that are relevant to your cause, whatever that may be, discounting things that are perceived as nonsense, that my fellow gambler, would make an interesting character in a book about gamblers.

There are many characters assembled on this stage we call a roulette forum, such as our benevolent leader, our testing gurus, resident experts, etc.

We are a book of characters, caught in a journey of life, trying to find the pot of gold using roulette as a means toward the goal. A few may have reached that goal while others ponder the notion if it does exist.

In the end, it does not matter. Every chapter in life must come to an end.

Nice!