Yes most certainly that is correct. And when you can see extreme value for low-risk and you see it there in front of you as you said it's much easier to walk away with something substantial then sit there and push it back and forth and get sucked in the volatility of the banker player if you didn't start winning and keep winning.

I'm on the way back and I'm gonna stop at the casino and play and then go home and open the  business in the morning and hopefully I win some tonight. probably play one shoe.  Had a nice bowl of PHO atmy wife's restaurant she gave me a nice bag of food to go for the road and on the interstate now

[attach=1]

He still will not listen, some people are telling him how much he can win and he can get it all back and all he has to do is play.  They are wrong and dead wrong.  Play and play and play and go everyday, is disaster to the max!  Here are the texts I received last night up to 4AM.

Not pretty.  All his win money is gone.  He will not, as most people, take his win money and pay bills, save it and allocate to anything--only icnreases his bank roll with a combat mission to smack the casino for millions.  OMG, same as we did in the 1980's in Atlantic City!

$25,000.00. Plus  $4,000.00 he borrowed from his sister.  Screw it.  Worse than arguing with a drug addict! 


[attach=1]

The shoe with 49 hands that was posted (missing the last 30 maybe? or ties and missing some?) anyway, I love a 20 to a 7 case sernario in the first 27 hands, wow.  And like I said in other posts, players are strong in the beginning much higher than 50% of the time.

Quote from: Lugi on May 08, 2018, 09:42:30 AM
Asym'

Here is a 'real' shoe I encountered 24 hrs ago, it is not rare by any standard. 

P Dominated shoes happen a lot, shoe after shoe after shoe, to the degree, makes one wonders if the deck composition is true in order to trip up the Chinese players who the majority bet Banker.  Yet it is, just one of those thing.

Applying your method as I understand it;

PPP (LL)
B
PPPP (LL)
BB
PPPPP (LL)
BBB
P (W)
B
PPPPPPP (LL)
BB
P (W)
B
PP (LW)
BBBB
P (W)
BB
P (W)
BBBB
PPPP (LL)

So the LW string runs;  LLLLLL W LL W LW W W LL = 5W''s vs 11L's


It is easy in hindsight to state, a negative progression (maybe) would be cleared.  What about the mental pressure of really losing 6 bets in a row while actually at the table while watching your chip stack deplete.

Losing 6 bets in a row, then having to place that 7th bet, without knowing if you are going to win the bet, experiencing the mental pressure, will the pain continue?   In this game, anything can and will happen. 

IMO the player can't / shouldn't bet aggressively, because quiet simply "you just never know".  Sure in the shoe above, the 7th bet was won, it could equally been another loss. 

When you can encounter a ratio of 5 vs 11 (31% strike rate), which has the potential to get even worst, one wonders, "is there anything better I could be doing'?  As eluded by BA, wait for 3 or 4 Players then take 2 bites only at betting the cut.

You mention "rare event", what is this rare event?  Did I bet too early, if I made a mistake with my understanding of your strategy by all means correct me.

Many things people come on the board and say are 'real' happenings/events and shoes, have also been posted by myself with fantastic and repeatitive wins.  I have found numerous events that happen with great repeatitvness, not that they are guaranteed by any 100% means, but they happen when I play more than 6 times easily out of 10. 

This is just one of the things I have written and posted.  There are actuallhy a total of approx. 60 events that are pretty common in Bac, IMO. 

"Players Side Repeating Within Beginning/First Section.  Players repeating hands in any form of clusters have a frequent tendency to appear within the beginning of the shoe, in the first section.  Meaning, 3 + Players with a frequent 1, sometimes 2 Bankers and each time the winning hand is Players it repeats with 3 + occurrences.  This kind of section is frequently followed by a section of 1's and 2's in various configurations when the first section losses its Player dominance stance, frequently around the 15-19th hands. Players Side Repeating Within Beginning/First Section.  Players repeating hands in any form of clusters have a frequent tendency to appear within the beginning of the shoe, in the first section.  Meaning, 3 + Players with a frequent 1, sometimes 2 Bankers and each time the winning hand is Players it repeats with 3 + occurrences.  This kind of section is frequently followed by a section of 1's and 2's in various configurations when the first section losses its Player dominance stance, frequently around the 15-19th hands."

I was at the casino the other day and 2 out of 3 shoes were all players in the first 18 or so hands with only 1 Banker each time up on the Big Road and then right back to players with almost every 3rd card for the players adding and every third card for the banker reducing.  Sorry, go ahead and blast me.   

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 07, 2018, 10:35:34 PM
I think he was unlucky to be lucky with those 200:1 shots.

It's quite simple to understand that B/P hands cannot be beaten so easily (or nothing at all), however side bets seem to be fantastic to recover losses or to make fair profits, unfortunately in the wrong hands they lead to disaster more rapidly.

I observed in Vegas that many former huge B/P bettors now prefer to make progressions on side bets. Many of them quit the game after hitting one.

I remember a regular middle age asian woman hitting a F-7 for $800 then leaving the table but making the huge mistake to observe the table and not to go home.

Next hands of the shoe produced the like of 5-6 panda bets and a couple more of F-7s.

She was cursing and cursing and so disturbed to make a second error, that is to join the closest table where a new shoe was ready to be dealt.

Naturally no one side bet came, and no one side bet came on the very next shoe.

as.

Side Wagers is a love-hate relationship as you are totally correct and accurate it can come really quick in the beginning or it won't come at all and you keep attempting and losing your Buy in. The way that I learned how to do it that has benefited me well and a bunch of players is to win some money and set it aside and try for 60 or 70% of the shoe if it did not produce them in the beginning and try the last half or two-thirds of the shoe with the side Wagers. However I like a lot of the side Wagers in the very beginning but if it's the first shoe it's going to be money out of my bank roll or my buy in of course and I'm risking that to make some quick money with the large return on the side Wagers.

As far as the 200:1 for $10.00  it only takes $800 to cover the whole shoe or five or six hundred dollars to cover a portion of it if it didn't come out and I really think with since I've been watching it for several months once a shoe or once or twice every couple two three shoes is about the average. I would say out of the last 10 sessions that I have been watching it I would say four five of the sessions produced One every other shoe at the very least and the other five sessions I would say three of those produced two within 3 shoes and possibly one or two shoes without any. I have seen two or three within one shoe and then again I seen one or two or three shoes without any those 10 sessions I would say would be within 3 weeks with those 10 trips. Even before they started the bad beat Baccarat where it's grab the attention of a lot of people the three card eight and three card 9 in the same hand as always wows players cause it's one of those hands that stick out like a sore thumb. It comes frequently and than other times you might not see it.  But it is most definitely a wager that numerous shoes do not go by without seeing it at least once.

The most was one busy weekend and it was seven consecutive shoes at one table without a single Fortune 7 and the 8th  shoe one came.  The ninth shoe had none and then it went back to two threes and fours as a norm. Panda 8s I think I've seen one shoe possibly two or it was at the end of the second shoe. I've never seen two complete shoes without a panda 8. I've written about this in detail before I've seen plenty of times one shoe without or two shoes.  I don't think I've ever seen 3 without as a frequency as a frequent event. But the most at one time was 7 without and it was at the very end of the 8th one again, that's an infrequent happening for numerous hours at the same table.

H-Money just called me and he went to the casino today again.  Started to win and then he lost and continued losing for the majority of the day and kept buying in and buying in repeatedly. Told me he could not stop, losing $16,000.00.  Sad, very sad IMO........

H-Money called me early this morning at 4am and told me he went to the casino yesterday afternoon.  I left the area to go tot he Twin Cities for the weekend until Tuesady and he told me he would not go back until next week.  He won right at $15k in the two shoes we played Friday night and although he is a pretty good player all around, he totally losses it when he wins or losses.  He does not have the willpower or the knowledge or experience to foster his beliefs when you win, it does not always repeat itself and win you loss, your mind changes and your focus and vision or terriably compromised most times.

However, he did win agian and this time was just over $10,000,00 in 3 shoes.  Most of his win was supported by the 3-card 8/9, 200:1 wager with $10.00 on his spot and another spot he was wagering with another player that was not covering it. 

We both tried for it for an entire shoe Friday night and did not get it.  Had to at least set aside $600-$700 to cover that 200:1 wager from the 15th hand on or so Friday.  Never came.  The 2nd shoe we played it came on the 16th hand I beleive it was.  Both of us did not have it on.  I have said in the past, I do believe this is a great wager, if you can fund it with other win money.  But to sit there and wager it, every single hand, I think that is a bad decision to do on a constant basis. 

Anyway, yesterday he hit it 2 times in one shoe and once in the following shoe.  He got up to a bit over $12k and gacve back a little less than $2k and said, he saw the shoe changing and his emotions kicking in.  He told me that and then he left.  So, maybe....just maybe....witht he $25k back now, he is starting to understand. sections and the risk of smaller amounts and if it did not turn anything, forget the battle until all hell breaks loose with total devestation or some kind of substanitial win. 

As well, I has 2 dealers that also play the game when they are not working in another casino, and there likings have shown the 'any 8/7' is a decent wager for 25:1.  I did see that alot the other day and just about always.  To me, it does appear on a more frequent basis than the Panda 8 does.

P.S.:  Here let me answer the 3 to 5 members in advance to save them their time in asking ans stating.  No, we have no math or statiscial calculations and all that for anything I said.  I am merely posting our reality and results from real-life casino play of the game of baccarat. 

Quote from: Lungyeh on May 06, 2018, 03:58:15 AM
Were you addressing your article to me? I was just posting a Bloomberg article about a small group of guys using mathematics to make @1 billion in betting on hirse racing. And I went on to suggest if mathematics can be used to make money on the 4-legged hoofed animal, using mathematical formulations to win on Baccarat should not be beyond imagination.

Having said befor that mathematicians are at the top of the intelligence food chain the article seems to reinforce the perception that there is a mathematical way to prevail at baccarat and perhaps the one school of thought should give more credence to the mathematical way. Except that the pro mathematics school in this forum seems to argue vaguely on HE and the whys and wherefores.

You are 1,000 % correct!   Math, engineers, scientists, grest doctors and attorneys that actually devote their lives and to research and application of their professions are usually thankless and underpaid choosen fields for the ones that bring about needed changes and advancements that help mankind! 

However,  with definitely applying mathematical and models to a game such as baccarat, the casino will always win as our bankrolls will never ever ever ever ever, never ever outlast our own greedy and desirous minds!!!  Every once and awhile a Don Johnson comes along and does what he did at The Tropicana in Atlantic City a few years ago,  and that $15,000.000.00 loss to The Trop probably made their bottom line profits hundreds of times that very same amount from thousands of attempts to replicate that!!!  There was a relatively a new owner of the casino when that happened and the limits at the tables were an unprecedented $50,000.00 A HAND FOR WALK IN NO FRONT MONEY PLAYERS!!! Even higher than anywhere in Las Vegas whuch us $25,000.00 a hand at only a few places. If you look it up about the Tropicana at that time a few years back there are interviews with the owner and he made a superb and phenomenal sense in what he said how he allowed that to happen and the revenue and the exposure with advertising and marketing it has brought his Casino. So who was actually the winner, was it the Tropicana or was it Don Johnson and the baccarat public??  End of story on that one, because I see no t one downside to the casino, even though they lost 15 million dollars they won thousands of millions of dollars from players exactly like that as I mentioned and they're wild thoughts that they can replicate that easily with 50,000 a hundred thousand or even a few hundred thousand dollar bank roll. I know several of the hosts that are at that casino that went there just before that happened from when Bally's Grand closed down next door in Atlantic City and they laugh everyday about that situation and tons of players that have repeatedly and consecutively tried..

Anyway you get my drift.  However stories like that which are actual events such as the horse racing story you just mentioned in international news gives such Fuel and Fire to people that want to argue and cause drama, such as those on this message board as well as every other message board, that all of their mathematical and statistical discoveries and rehashing of plain and simple mathematics and statistical facts, backup and support every single thing that they've ever stated on these message boards. Which is true, however it cannot for 99.99 percent-plus of everybody that goes to the baccarat table. Me and you and everyone else will lose their money in the attempt to make a greater amount of money that we will never ever be able to do. And then you have the people that want to poke fun, twist turn and be a message board hero, for their classroom applications which are 100% true and there is your catch 22.

So when I go to the casino now in the last 15  plus years and I start to hit it I smack it and pounce on it, the way that I've described and we have done extremely well and when I lose I lose very small amounts unlike what my close friend H-Money has the past month or so did,   I'll lose $500 to $1,500 continuously but when we win we win $5,000 to $40,000 plus, very often and as I've stated with money management and everything else that I've described in great detail and great time with here.  It is also and I stress also, 1000% true and my wins are far far greater than what my small losses are because I do not do what H-Money did and likewise 99.99 percent of everyone else does at the baccarat tables. Just say for whatever reason I've discovered what I did and it definitely works. And I don't care if the bottom line is I sprinkled magical dust on them cards and peaked and peeled at them. and I got lucky, it does not matter not one bit because a win is a win and it doesn't matter if Voodoo or a dream or luck or whatever it is one bit, that the game that night, I still cashed out what I did with them pictures and we still had a blast and like I said the bottom line is, it out does the small amount of losses if you can hold and maintain your emotional and psychological state of mind and realize what it takes to win the game. And what it takes to win this game is exactly the way that I've outlined it, showed pictures and described. That  doesn't mean that I'm any smarter than or any better than that of the mathematical or statistical teachers and professors and extremely intelligent people that recite all the mathematical and  statistical facts, but they are only correct in the long run and in the classroom, it doesn't apply to the casino. At least for the player with any kind of obtainable and realistic bankroll in order to apply it to do what Don Johnson did and other phenomenal and lucky gamblers have done. Some people get that lucky break and get to apply their bankroll and they're prevailing the same way that certain actors have in the movie Industries and became internationally famous and apply their talents that millions of other people have just as well,  that just could not find the proper opportunity or other people to nurture them and get them into the spotlight in order to be a success such as Bruce Willis, Clint Eastwood, Al Pacino Robert De Niro Woody Harrelson and many many others actors have successfully accomplished.  A Perfect Analogy.

Just like what we did the other night and I've posted a few pictures which are extremely hard to take and only acceptable at a few casinos when they really know the players and you don't abuse the privilege of snapping a picture that they see of the table without faces in it especially the employees. And if I continue to sit there and do what I did the people that caused the drama on these message boards would be exactly right, however I do not do that any longer. I take the money and I do the most important thing that I've ever discovered and I've tried to let everyone know and it's simply called, resetting and refreshing. End of story once again. And that is the way you can profit extremely well at baccarat. Thank you, goodnight.

We did quite well with ourselves last night especially with the camaraderie and that camaraderie and itself allowed our winning bet sellections to really pump it up!!  Something that we would not have done by ourselves. Camaraderie and teamwork excels by far imo, than that of  sitting by yourself or with your head down in the palm of your hand with strangers or other players you have conflicting betselection methods with, turning other people or yourself against your own bet selection for one reason or another.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 05, 2018, 11:53:10 PM

So you are admitting that your greatest profit was merely plain luck, your "camaraderie" and "unofficial partnerships" don't prove a successful strategy but more like wherever the wind blows I lean...it means NOTHING to me!


(Sorry , but you took it totally out of context.  It doesn't have anything to do with bet selection it just has to do with larger wagering when I and others at the table are winning and time to Pump It Up.  Please do not twist my words around it's the first and last time I'm going to ask you not to do that any longer.)

How could someone perceive seriously what you are saying, you know, other gamblers, like yourself, don't have a tag on their forehead which says "loser, bet against me", it's your fallacious perceptions and delusions of what is proper betting, nothing more than that.

(Again you were chastising and you're attempting to humiliate a fellow member and I would appreciate if you would leave me out of your quotes in your conversations, again if you don't like it don't go on my threads and you don't have to quote me as well. )



@ ABG,
As long as you are focusing on "trees" and NOT the "forest" you'll be doomed to lose sooner or later.
Try to see the greater picture, oh yes, there's one if you try to perceive it...!
Streaks here, chops there, isolated or not...all of these won't help you because the fall under the mainstream probability which its bottom line is HE, period.
Instead try to realize what happens from 1 shoe to the next, what's the difference between 1 set of 40 to 50 results to the next one...!
Try to see a bit further than chops and streaks.

You are absolutely correct. 

Do it, show it, write about it and tell it all. 

Or, keep it to yourself, grow old and let nobody know.

I announced I was sitting in Seat 7 because  I wanted some F-7's.  LOL, go ahead and make fun, we had a great few hours there!

First F-7 win after a few hands.  H-Money to my right side, dealer waiting on floor approval for his $400.00 tip for the 2 red chips I had side by side with my table max of $50 on the F-7.  Tips over $100 for the dealer (pay out) have to be approved by the casino GM before they are pushed out for us to throw back in, pain the rear sometimes but I usually throw up 1 to 4 red chips for the dealer on the F-7's. 

There is the first one, hard to take the pics--but I try.

[attach=1]

There is the second F-7 a few hands after the first one with my $45 up on it:

[attach=2]

There is the stack after winning 5 of them and a bunch of Banker key wagers.  Before I started to cash it out.  I loaned someone I know a few thousand and cashed out $6,500.00.  Played with the rest for a while.  Buy-in was the black and a small amount of the green chips.

[attach=3]

First cash out while the cashier calls the pit to verify:

[attach=4]

The we went to my buddies house and I made the sauce from scratch and he made the pasta  and the garlic bread.  No sleep, now I came in early to open the business and open it up for my guys to come in and get some trucks and equipment they needed.  H-Money wound up with a bit over $15k win last night.  If he listens and does not run back every day and learns some patience, to clear his head and play with vision and camaraderie and let me guide him, he has a chance.

If not, he will give it all back again and again. 

The sauce we finally got made around 4 am or so. 

[attach=5]

Five f7s first shoe snd 3 the second.  3 of them within 6 hands!  Lol,  H-Money got $15k back!  Will post a few pics later this morning.  can't resize on this tablet so easy. Hit 8 out of 8 in 1.5 shoes....