Quote from: Lungyeh on May 06, 2018, 03:58:15 AM
Were you addressing your article to me? I was just posting a Bloomberg article about a small group of guys using mathematics to make @1 billion in betting on hirse racing. And I went on to suggest if mathematics can be used to make money on the 4-legged hoofed animal, using mathematical formulations to win on Baccarat should not be beyond imagination.

Having said befor that mathematicians are at the top of the intelligence food chain the article seems to reinforce the perception that there is a mathematical way to prevail at baccarat and perhaps the one school of thought should give more credence to the mathematical way. Except that the pro mathematics school in this forum seems to argue vaguely on HE and the whys and wherefores.

You are 1,000 % correct!   Math, engineers, scientists, grest doctors and attorneys that actually devote their lives and to research and application of their professions are usually thankless and underpaid choosen fields for the ones that bring about needed changes and advancements that help mankind! 

However,  with definitely applying mathematical and models to a game such as baccarat, the casino will always win as our bankrolls will never ever ever ever ever, never ever outlast our own greedy and desirous minds!!!  Every once and awhile a Don Johnson comes along and does what he did at The Tropicana in Atlantic City a few years ago,  and that $15,000.000.00 loss to The Trop probably made their bottom line profits hundreds of times that very same amount from thousands of attempts to replicate that!!!  There was a relatively a new owner of the casino when that happened and the limits at the tables were an unprecedented $50,000.00 A HAND FOR WALK IN NO FRONT MONEY PLAYERS!!! Even higher than anywhere in Las Vegas whuch us $25,000.00 a hand at only a few places. If you look it up about the Tropicana at that time a few years back there are interviews with the owner and he made a superb and phenomenal sense in what he said how he allowed that to happen and the revenue and the exposure with advertising and marketing it has brought his Casino. So who was actually the winner, was it the Tropicana or was it Don Johnson and the baccarat public??  End of story on that one, because I see no t one downside to the casino, even though they lost 15 million dollars they won thousands of millions of dollars from players exactly like that as I mentioned and they're wild thoughts that they can replicate that easily with 50,000 a hundred thousand or even a few hundred thousand dollar bank roll. I know several of the hosts that are at that casino that went there just before that happened from when Bally's Grand closed down next door in Atlantic City and they laugh everyday about that situation and tons of players that have repeatedly and consecutively tried..

Anyway you get my drift.  However stories like that which are actual events such as the horse racing story you just mentioned in international news gives such Fuel and Fire to people that want to argue and cause drama, such as those on this message board as well as every other message board, that all of their mathematical and statistical discoveries and rehashing of plain and simple mathematics and statistical facts, backup and support every single thing that they've ever stated on these message boards. Which is true, however it cannot for 99.99 percent-plus of everybody that goes to the baccarat table. Me and you and everyone else will lose their money in the attempt to make a greater amount of money that we will never ever be able to do. And then you have the people that want to poke fun, twist turn and be a message board hero, for their classroom applications which are 100% true and there is your catch 22.

So when I go to the casino now in the last 15  plus years and I start to hit it I smack it and pounce on it, the way that I've described and we have done extremely well and when I lose I lose very small amounts unlike what my close friend H-Money has the past month or so did,   I'll lose $500 to $1,500 continuously but when we win we win $5,000 to $40,000 plus, very often and as I've stated with money management and everything else that I've described in great detail and great time with here.  It is also and I stress also, 1000% true and my wins are far far greater than what my small losses are because I do not do what H-Money did and likewise 99.99 percent of everyone else does at the baccarat tables. Just say for whatever reason I've discovered what I did and it definitely works. And I don't care if the bottom line is I sprinkled magical dust on them cards and peaked and peeled at them. and I got lucky, it does not matter not one bit because a win is a win and it doesn't matter if Voodoo or a dream or luck or whatever it is one bit, that the game that night, I still cashed out what I did with them pictures and we still had a blast and like I said the bottom line is, it out does the small amount of losses if you can hold and maintain your emotional and psychological state of mind and realize what it takes to win the game. And what it takes to win this game is exactly the way that I've outlined it, showed pictures and described. That  doesn't mean that I'm any smarter than or any better than that of the mathematical or statistical teachers and professors and extremely intelligent people that recite all the mathematical and  statistical facts, but they are only correct in the long run and in the classroom, it doesn't apply to the casino. At least for the player with any kind of obtainable and realistic bankroll in order to apply it to do what Don Johnson did and other phenomenal and lucky gamblers have done. Some people get that lucky break and get to apply their bankroll and they're prevailing the same way that certain actors have in the movie Industries and became internationally famous and apply their talents that millions of other people have just as well,  that just could not find the proper opportunity or other people to nurture them and get them into the spotlight in order to be a success such as Bruce Willis, Clint Eastwood, Al Pacino Robert De Niro Woody Harrelson and many many others actors have successfully accomplished.  A Perfect Analogy.

Just like what we did the other night and I've posted a few pictures which are extremely hard to take and only acceptable at a few casinos when they really know the players and you don't abuse the privilege of snapping a picture that they see of the table without faces in it especially the employees. And if I continue to sit there and do what I did the people that caused the drama on these message boards would be exactly right, however I do not do that any longer. I take the money and I do the most important thing that I've ever discovered and I've tried to let everyone know and it's simply called, resetting and refreshing. End of story once again. And that is the way you can profit extremely well at baccarat. Thank you, goodnight.

We did quite well with ourselves last night especially with the camaraderie and that camaraderie and itself allowed our winning bet sellections to really pump it up!!  Something that we would not have done by ourselves. Camaraderie and teamwork excels by far imo, than that of  sitting by yourself or with your head down in the palm of your hand with strangers or other players you have conflicting betselection methods with, turning other people or yourself against your own bet selection for one reason or another.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 05, 2018, 11:53:10 PM

So you are admitting that your greatest profit was merely plain luck, your "camaraderie" and "unofficial partnerships" don't prove a successful strategy but more like wherever the wind blows I lean...it means NOTHING to me!


(Sorry , but you took it totally out of context.  It doesn't have anything to do with bet selection it just has to do with larger wagering when I and others at the table are winning and time to Pump It Up.  Please do not twist my words around it's the first and last time I'm going to ask you not to do that any longer.)

How could someone perceive seriously what you are saying, you know, other gamblers, like yourself, don't have a tag on their forehead which says "loser, bet against me", it's your fallacious perceptions and delusions of what is proper betting, nothing more than that.

(Again you were chastising and you're attempting to humiliate a fellow member and I would appreciate if you would leave me out of your quotes in your conversations, again if you don't like it don't go on my threads and you don't have to quote me as well. )



@ ABG,
As long as you are focusing on "trees" and NOT the "forest" you'll be doomed to lose sooner or later.
Try to see the greater picture, oh yes, there's one if you try to perceive it...!
Streaks here, chops there, isolated or not...all of these won't help you because the fall under the mainstream probability which its bottom line is HE, period.
Instead try to realize what happens from 1 shoe to the next, what's the difference between 1 set of 40 to 50 results to the next one...!
Try to see a bit further than chops and streaks.

You are absolutely correct. 

Do it, show it, write about it and tell it all. 

Or, keep it to yourself, grow old and let nobody know.

I announced I was sitting in Seat 7 because  I wanted some F-7's.  LOL, go ahead and make fun, we had a great few hours there!

First F-7 win after a few hands.  H-Money to my right side, dealer waiting on floor approval for his $400.00 tip for the 2 red chips I had side by side with my table max of $50 on the F-7.  Tips over $100 for the dealer (pay out) have to be approved by the casino GM before they are pushed out for us to throw back in, pain the rear sometimes but I usually throw up 1 to 4 red chips for the dealer on the F-7's. 

There is the first one, hard to take the pics--but I try.

[attach=1]

There is the second F-7 a few hands after the first one with my $45 up on it:

[attach=2]

There is the stack after winning 5 of them and a bunch of Banker key wagers.  Before I started to cash it out.  I loaned someone I know a few thousand and cashed out $6,500.00.  Played with the rest for a while.  Buy-in was the black and a small amount of the green chips.

[attach=3]

First cash out while the cashier calls the pit to verify:

[attach=4]

The we went to my buddies house and I made the sauce from scratch and he made the pasta  and the garlic bread.  No sleep, now I came in early to open the business and open it up for my guys to come in and get some trucks and equipment they needed.  H-Money wound up with a bit over $15k win last night.  If he listens and does not run back every day and learns some patience, to clear his head and play with vision and camaraderie and let me guide him, he has a chance.

If not, he will give it all back again and again. 

The sauce we finally got made around 4 am or so. 

[attach=5]

Five f7s first shoe snd 3 the second.  3 of them within 6 hands!  Lol,  H-Money got $15k back!  Will post a few pics later this morning.  can't resize on this tablet so easy. Hit 8 out of 8 in 1.5 shoes....

Five f7  first shoe!!

2 fortune 7s in our first  4 hands!!  I had 75.00 on each one.  H money said no way and only put 10.00 up.   Will post pics later!!

On the way with my buddy to go pick up H money his kid wrecked his brand new Honda car last night hit a deer or something we're going to go pick him up and hopefully post some good news here in a few hours.

Asym,

Something I wrote elsewhere on the board:

" allowing other players to Influence you. however works both ways and I've had some of my largest wins with camaraderie and unofficial Partnerships where we followed each other at the table and we made consistent wins and avoided losses But be forewarned that easily backfires and causes ill will and a fast decent to losing a buy in as well."

As well:

"............................chance as to the results happening and what the shoes have produced while I was playing the game of baccarat, because the analysis will not allow me to win the type of money at baccarat I have discovered that can be obtained with identifying and wagering during the 'waves' and 'opportunities' produced by shoes of the game."............................

This is what we plan for H-Money tonight, my buddy the retired NYPD guy, myself and H-Money going to the casino tonight.  Told H-Money he has to listen to us, or we will embarrass him like he never envisioned he agreed.  LOL  Here is a primer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3j3_iPskjxk

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 04, 2018, 01:11:51 AM


......................................

Alrelax is right. What didn't happen so far is less likely to show up as a finite shoe is always a card dependent proposition and vice versa.

Actually and after millions of shoe tested,  the number of situations when consecutive B doubles are followed by single or 2-in a row B doubles are out numbered by the same opposite events.

What didn't happen could happen but what did happen could more easily happen again. Providing a careful classification of what we are registering.

as.     
       

In fact, the presentments (results) are not so clear cut.  Sure--at times the are and that is when you 'pounce on it and pounce, fast & hard' and yet--other times, probably better than 50% of the times you actually play--they are not so clear.

Problem is, we confuse ourselves, with the way I play or even if you have a 'set method' you sit there and watch people winning huge--on long streaks of repeating hands or long and beautiful chop-chop or an extra long doubles, etc.  People get influenced, period.

In so many cases, the match between observations and expectations do not (DO NOT) equal the reality that comes about.  It might for a few hands and then once your confidence builds and builds, it bites you and your mind begins to tell you, "Wager the opposite of what you think and you will certainly win" or, follow the PHO eating chubby Viet guy speaking in broken English about how the dragon's tale is going to be so long, it is a females 'love you long time dream'!!", etc., etc., etc.  You laugh and you place your $100.00 wager and the Viet dude places table max of $5,000.00 and wins.  Then you follow him....................end of my morning story.

Three. four players, experienced or not--talking at the baccarat table.  Right then and there, the smart one will hear only, "We talked and talked and pointed and played.  We won and lost.  We lost and won.  What does it all mean?  We compared different expectations to the same observations and reality produced what some of us thought and as well, produced what some of us did not think". 

BTW, there was this Viet dude at the casino a couple of weeks ago, and he points to the tail forming on the appropriate road on the score board and starts saying, "Love you long time--just like the song--Banker love you long time---wager on it".......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12tce-THLUE

Update list, not complete, others are within my writings, but I am updating some:

Additions and Reductions, on 3 card draws.  As soon as one side begins to get additions, particularly the player side and the banker side is reduced by its 3rd card—be alert for that event to continue.  Once it happens a 2nd time in a row—particularly within the first half of the shoe or the middle section, it might favor the continuance of doing that numerous times.  Likewise a reduction to the Players side and the banker winning with the first 2 cards or the third card that increases.  However, IMO and experience the first one is usually stronger overall and continues longer.

6/7's & 8's/9's.  Without anything else, I have found that 1 point wins and 1 point losses for both hands, tends to lend itself to the worst rationalization of what the next hand will bring, more often than not.  As well as any other numbers that prevail and lose this is the worst that brings total randomness, continuance and any other chain of events that almost no one can profit off of.

Naturals-alternating.  An event exists to be exploited when alternating naturals appear frequently.  Naturals have a huge tendency to 'WOW' the players and they convince themselves that the side just got 'strong' and aggressively wager the same side that the natural just prevailed on.  However, naturals are frequent and have a tendency to bounced or alternate back and forth for a short event more often than not, especially when the '-' or '+' is close together.

Naturals.  When one side is producing naturals over the other side's 6-7 or 8's and winning—it is an event that can be exploited frequently.  Meaning, for example, P has 6 and B has 7, then P has a N8 and B had a N9, etc., or the opposite.

Fortune 7's (3 card Banker winning 7's, 40:1).  Zero to low ties.  Within the first 10 hands.  And hands 16-23.  Those are the most frequent events when the shoe produces the F-7 hand.  Frequently shoes have 1 or 2 F-7's.  Some shoes have none.  If a 3rd F-7 does appear, generally there is a 4th.  5 and 6 F-7's are a bit infrequent or rare but do occur.  Or, should I say you will not generally see that in every other shoe or every third shoe, etc.  By the way, the reason there are more F-7's in the beginning of the shoe than elsewhere and on a more frequent basis is the number of cards in the shoe of course.  Frequently there are many 10's that form the first 3 or 4 cards dealt and then a larger card reducing the players side 'under 6' or remaining at 6 and drawing an Ace through a 7 to make the 3 card 7 on the Banker side, etc.  F-7's and the next hand 'cut'.  The highest amount of the F-7 appearing hands will 'cut' to the Players side with the upcoming hand to be dealt.

Panda 8's (3 card Player winning 8's, 25:1).  Panda 8's will appear a norm of 3 to 6 times.  Panda 8's appear frequently in the beginning of the shoe in multiple more than F-7's generally will by far.  Panda 8's will also appear in clusters (repeating themselves in a shorter hand-span) with greater frequency than F-7's generally do.  Panda 8's appear with less consistency within certain clusters of hands than F-7's but with a greater appearance of anywhere in the shoe from the beginning to the end.  Panda 8's also with great frequency tend to 'cut' to the Banker with the following hand to be dealt after the appearance of a Panda 8. 

-10/+10/+20. Frequently the total count will hover around '-' or '+' 10 somewhere between hand 15 and midway or so.  And then favor the deficit side in smaller hit rates for its attempt to "catch-up".  It happens and happens repeatedly.  Much rarer an event, one side will continue to +20 and continue to rise.  Infrequent by far.  I have only witnessed a handful of shoes be able to provide the + side that was already well over +15, say +17 to +20 or so and then produce a streak on top of that.  Depending on how far into the shoe it is, the deficit side usually (USUALLY) makes a pretty good attempt to "catch-up" to the other side. The key thing in this event as I have found, is the deficient side will usually 'catch-up' in a slow grind by not allowing the + side to streak or repeat as it was doing or presenting, previously.  Depending on the hand of the shoe, I have done extremely well and won larger wagers based on these events siding with the '-' or the '+' of a side to win or lose.   

Equaling Out.  The highest numbers of shoes will equal out in how many winning hands each side ended up with and if not equal, within 3 to 5 of each other as next most favorable.  An event to be exploited along the shoe after the first 1/3rd of the shoe, many times.  If not, after the midway or 60% point.  Another easy exploit that comes along frequently is when it is within 1 or 2 of each other.  Example, 27-28, then 28-28, then 28-29, then 29-29, then 30-29, etc.  That event to me has won many a large wager, the same as a streak of any one side continuing—when it is there, it is there without reason, comparison or definitively being able to define the reason why.   

½ Way to End of Shoe.  More often than not, when the first half of the shoe was 'strong', frequently repeating B's and P's and other distinctive continuing trends that formed, the second half is one to be extremely careful of it continuing.  Sure, great if it does.  But when you play long enough, this is one of the easiest and most profitable events that can be exploited big time for it to be almost the opposite of the first half.

Alternating & 2's.  No rhyme or reason, nothing I have ever found that will point to the successful and continued outcome of chops and/or 2's.  If they appear within a section they can be exploited as it is an event that frequently happens.

Players Side Repeating Within Beginning/First Section.  Players repeating hands in any form of clusters have a frequent tendency to appear within the beginning of the shoe, in the first section.  Meaning, 3 + Players with a frequent 1, sometimes 2 Bankers and each time the winning hand is Players it repeats with 3 + occurrences.  This kind of section is frequently followed by a section of 1's and 2's in various configurations when the first section losses its Player dominance stance, frequently around the 15-19th hands.

Sections & Turning Points.  The card or board needs to be visualized into 'sections and turning points'.  There are usually 4 of them easily identifiable within a shoe.  There might be 3 in the extremely weak or very strong shoes and a possibly of 5.  Following 'waves' and the 'sections' makes it easier to follow the flow of cards and the presentments many of the times.  Following the 'waves' and attempting to wager heavier within the middle of them, is my key to increasing my wins with heavier wagers rather than all too often wagering at the very end of any weak, strong or continuing neutral presentments happening.  The key to using it while it is happening, is to identify a new section and with a multitude of other quickly rationalized out thoughts, find yourself within the start or the middle of a presenting 'wave'. 

Sections Identified. The sections with their turning points will reflect the 'waves' of the shoe.  The sections are basically, one of three things.  1)  Weak; 2) Strong; and 3) Neutral.  Baccarat shoes will produce those three series of events in a random order.  However, the shoe will generally have many consistencies which will represent 'weak' or 'strong', patterns/trends/clusters, etc.  For sake of a 'non-arguing/non-challenging' definition, the 'weak-strong-neutral' clusters which I put into 'sections' appear in random presentations without being repetitive according to any one thing.  However, numerous factors when present, have proved them to myself with frequency that is noticeable and identifiable as I have described within the above paragraphs.  How long will the 'clusters' last?  Unknown.  From a few to numerous. 

Weak.  'Weak' is a representation of the most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  'Weak' can be the traditional 1's or 2's or say 1's followed by a 3 repeating side.  'Weak' can be a situation where say the Player had 3's and 4's to the Bankers 1, each time the Banker beat the Player.  Thus, "The Banker is weak".  Or, say the shoe produced 4 Banker runs of 6 to 9 and 3 Player runs of 5 to 7 with a 3 repeating Banker.  Then there was a turn to presenting 1's and 2's.  Thus, "The shoe got real weak".  Or, the Player's 3rd card consistently reduces them to zero or near zero total point value and the Bankers are winning with the first 2 cards or adding up to 7-8-9 total value with every 3rd card pulled.  Thus, "The Player is weak". 

Strong.  'Strong' is a representation of the third most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  'Strong' can be the traditional streaks and runs of either Banker or Player in consecutive order, one after the next.  'Strong' can be a situation where either side, Banker or Player, consecutively produces series or sections of winning hands in multiple.  'Strong' can very well be a section of alternating hands, a continuous 'chop-chop' of alternating Bankers and Players for many times.  'Strong' can very well be a section of 'doubles' or 'pairs' that are produced side-by-side in a continuous result for 6 or 8 or 10 times, etc.  'Strong' can be a series of 1's-2's-3-3-2's-1's, or many other things along those lines.  'Strong' can very well be where a deficient side lost +10 or even +15 or more times and then began to catch-up and equal out the deficiency it was holding.  'Strong' can be where either side is adding point value with every 3rd card drawn for many successive hands in repeating shoe presentment. 

Neutral.  'Neutral' is a representation of the second most prevalent events that happen within a shoe of baccarat, usually.  Neutral happen repeatedly throughout the shoe in many ways.  The most obvious is the +10, -10 or +20 situations with the 'total running' count.  The shoe will frequently, very frequently 'equal' out, meaning the deficient side will catch up and then balance out.  See, 'Equaling Out' in the above paragraphs.

Consistent. 'Consistent' is when the shoe is producing presentments that are holding a repetitive pattern, that replicates a several to numerous previous hands, whether those hands lost or won.  Consistency is one of the easiest things to spot in an upcoming wave about to happen or one that is happening.

Inconsistent.  'Inconsistent' is an event that occurs, not quite rare, but with a lot less frequency than weak/weakness.

Dominant.  'Dominant is the same as strong and consistent events that occur.

Singular.  'Singular' is an individual event or 1's, that occur.

Multiple.  'Multiple' is repeating, dominant and strong events that occur.

Frequent.  'Frequent' is the same as strong events that occur.

Rare.  'Rare; is the same as inconsistent events that occur. 

What so many players, regardless of their experience fail to recognize are the identifiable events I touched on here.  Oh yeas, they do after they are presented and history of course.  That method gives them their fuel and energy to continually label the game as guessing and luck because when they attempt to use that presented information as the sole basis for wagering, the wagers are not within the 'wave'. 

As well, so many people believe baccarat goes only two ways with its presentation, which are attempted to be identified.  'Strong', which they label only as streaks and runs and we all know how that goes.  And secondly, with the 'weak' meaning they interpret 'weak' as being related to chop-chop or possibly the presentments proving 'non streaks', etc. 

Baccarat can be frequently identifiable with the correct vision of a player that has the correct frame-of-mind coupled with other emotional, judgement and physiological issues being present or absent. 

How much are candy bars there in the UK?  Most here are $1.39 to $1.99 but occasional at one of the bigger markets we can buy them for right at .89 but only sometimes.  Not gas stations or c-stores.