Our members are dedicated to PASSION and PURPOSE without drama!

Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - alrelax

#1441
I found this on the board:


"I think "scammer" is too strong a word here. Looking at VRSEDGE's web site it seems that he's selling software tools which enable users to create their own systems based on parameters built into the platforms. There are no claims or guarantees that anyone will definitely win by using them. He is not selling a system or systems and claiming that they are infallible.

But since the forum has a new owner, perhaps a review of the rules regarding advertising and/or selling might be in order? There are several members doing this, including Gizmotron who is now looking for more students. I quote : "PM me if you want private tutoring." -- Gizmotron. (https://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/for-those-who-think-house-edge-or-negative-expectation-is-the-sole-culprit/msg63571/#msg63571) "


And it was posted by 'Mike'.  He has the same thing or variations of it posted in about 3 member's threads, Vrsedge's, Albalaha's and Gizmo's. 

I will clarify.  Refer to the Board's Rule #6 please.  More specifically, just a few words within that you in particular need to focus on, understand and absorb.  Here, I will make it a tad bit easier for you:

"No sales or published links of any kind to any commercial cause/website/program or item, without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators.

No direct selling or linking to a member's or member's affiliate of any kind without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators. "


As well: I posted yesterday the following;


Known members versus unknown members things are taking into a Different Light.

As far as selling something, a known member that's a real person, that has history here if that's what he does for a living or a legitimate sideline and he is known and has as a decent reputation along with that of his product, without giving an endorsement on behalf of the board, that's one story.  To me that's acceptable no matter who the member is.

Now if it's a person that signs on with no history or a few posts and all of a sudden he's selling some type of product or service and he never introduced himself and I don't know who he is and no references, entirely different picture and that is what's clearly not allowed.

And don't bring it where it's selective but it's an overall picture as to if it's a reputable member or an unknown member that's a possible scam. And again my board does not endorse any commercial product. And if I do endorse something, it means that I personally checked it out and I believe in it and I've done more research rather than just making sure the person is a reputable person and those are going to be few and far in-between, meaning the endorsements of commercial products or services on this board.

We all have seen on this board as well as numerous other boards of all kinds, the new or relatively new sign up member, comes on and greets everyone and immediately begins posting links to other sites of all types and then into direct sales.  Or, a variation where he will possibly accomplish 3 or 5 or even 10 posts and then enter into the same thing.  They usually do not do the latter because it takes time to do, even 30 mins of posting over a few days is way too much for these types.  A perfect example was that so-called gambling book author we had last year on this board.  But there are thousands of scammers, systems sellers, website gambling affiliates, etc.,  Those are the ones that are not allowed, will be axed and deleted as soon as they post. 

As I said, known members are viewed in a different light.  This is not an endorsement of their product or service, it is merely allowing them to express themselves, refer to their business or sideline, and allow them to use this board as a vehicle in a subtle way--even if it entails a commercial venture on their behalf.  However, it is no different than a shopping mall with a merchant that rents space from the mall.  The mall is not responsible for the content or the merchant's actions.  However, if the merchant is fraudulent or present himself in a non-professional way and becomes a liability for the mall, the mall can and will terminate his lease because he did not act within standard business and community practices.  Same here.  End of story.

Now, that should be enough and fully explains, 'what is what'.
#1442
This is hands down, the most comprehensive, technical, and best book about the subject, IMO.  It is also filled with great 'side-info' of sorts that can and will open many doors for those of you that are not 'super-math/statistical' freak-a-schizoids.

Title:  "The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic
Author:  Richard A. Epstein
Publisher:  Academic Press
First Edition:  1977
Revised Edition:  1995


I did not read the whole thing, but I had this on my list of publications to get for a very long time.  I finally got one used off of Amazon.  The book is in many ways above my head and level, but there are many interesting and useful things within it, that I do not regret getting in in anyway!  I should have got it a long time ago. 

Great reference tool beyond a doubt.  I would have to say it has almost all aspects covered. 

Chapters

1)  Kubeiagenesis
2)  Mathematical Preliminaries
3)  Fundamental Principals of a Theory of Gambling
4)  Coins, Wheels and Oddments
5)  Coups and Games with Dice
6)  The play of the Cards
7)  Blackjack
8   Contract Bridge
9)  Weighted Statistical Logic and Statistical Games
10) Games of Pure Skill and Competitive Computers
11)  Fallacies and Sophistries
Epilogue
Appendix Tables
Author Index
Subject Index



For Example in Chapter #3)  While technical like a lot of the book, there is great stuff that can lead a player down research paths that will certainly open doors into, 'insight', as I see it, IMO.

Lots and lots of references as well.  For someone that really gets into reading and researching anything, this is worth its weight in gold with ton of references and other publications, articles and works relating to gambling and casinos.

All the technical math/stats and gaming terms, lots of authors, tons of charts and explanations of those and the equations in 'almost' simplistic ways.  While geared towards more of the factual end of most everything, IMO--it is unbiased and years of research and writ combined. 

I cannot see how any serious player would not get this book for $30.00 or under.

Pictures of the Book:

[attach=1]

[attach=2]

[attach=3]

[attach=4]

[attach=5]

There is a section and relation to 'Guessing' as well with the author using 'Zener Cards', if you dot know what Zener cards are, we used them in college if I recall.  Goggle them. 

"Zener cards are cards used to conduct experiments for extrasensory perception (ESP) or clairvoyance. Perceptual psychologist Karl Zener (1903–1964) designed the cards in the early 1930s for experiments conducted with his colleague, parapsychologist J. B. Rhine (1895–1980). The original series of experiments have been discredited and replication has proved elusive."


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zener_cards

[attach=6]

Link to preview on Amazon:

https://www.amazon.com/Theory-Gambling-Statistical-Logic-Revised/dp/012240761X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1529161074&sr=8-1&keywords=gambling+and+statistical+book#reader_012240761X
#1443
You know, on a side-ways affiliated note to education/training/workshops.  I have a wall full of certificates, completion awards and also certificates of achievement, all related to mostly paid courses of one type or another.  Benefiting off of any or all of them would solely depend on one's ability to use--translate--pick & choose--find areas of concern and interest to your needs, etc., then expanding your knoweldge with what was taught/instructed/brought to light, etc. 

If you cannot do something along those lines, you can sit in any university and stay there for 4 or 8 years, learn and become 'book-smart' and get a degree and yet--some high school kids might be able to our perform and out think you every day of the week in a certain profession.  Maybe those high school ks will not know advance trigonometry or calculus or some history of a great 1600's world leader or other university level items, but that does not preclude those high school kids from actually knowing more and performing better than the 4 or 8 year university graduate that sat there and learned, but failed to apply and use the bulk of what was taught to actually bridge the gap between 'schooling/education' and real-world application and interfacing with profession/career, etc. 

Same with gaming/gambling/casinos/seminars/training.  What Mark has to offer might open a path, that would allow someone to actually discover something he was unable to even recognize actually exists or is needed to formulate something that might very well help him be profitable or more profitable.  Mark might not teach in verbatim, 'how to win'--he might just be able to offer some smart player that is searching for ways to explore the roads, where the roads are, what are the roads, etc., to be profitable or more profitable?  Maybe, huh?

#1444
Oh and by the way read rule number 6 it specifically says, without the express permission of the moderators or the administration of this board. And Mark has my permission.
#1445
Known members versus unknown members things are taking into a Different Light.

As far as selling something, a known member that's a real person, that has history here if that's what he does for a living or a legitimate sideline and he is known and has as a decent reputation along with that of his product, without giving an endorsement on behalf of the board, that's one story.  To me that's acceptable no matter who the member is.

Now if it's a person that signs on with no history or a few posts and all of a sudden he's selling some type of product or service and he never introduced himself and I don't know who he is and no references, entirely different picture and that is what's clearly not allowed.

And don't bring it where it's selective but it's an overall picture as to if it's a reputable member or an unknown member that's a possible scam. And again my board does not endorse any commercial product. And if I do endorse something, it means that I personally checked it out and I believe in it and I've done more research rather than just making sure the person is a reputable person and those are going to be few and far in-between, meaning the endorsements of commercial products or services on this board.

Thank you that should answer your question or concern.
#1446
 
"Re: For those who think house edge or negative expectation is the sole culprit
« Reply #75 on: Yesterday at 02:10:42 AM »


Every bet will get this much variance for sure, in the long run. People seems to miss even a remedy for this.

If I say, there will be 500 wins of a number in 18500 spins and we can not get the scatter of the wins, most of the intelligent players around here will have a soar throat beating just that. If the number of win lessens to 450, they will lose thousands of chips and might be only losing all over. I have seen this clearly in my #3 challenge on zumma book. "
***********************************************************************************************************

I might be wrong, but I will take a min and run the numbers real quick.  This is why I am against 'the mathematical statistics' of any game.  Sure they are correct, but they are, and 100% dependent upon the long run as well.  Following a math or stat reasoning on a table game,  You might get some positive hits or even the once-in-a-while 'win' produced ration to losses, but what do you have to risk to get Point 'B' from within 'Point A'?

Point 'A'----The series referred to;

Point 'B'----The 'win' from the series.


Every game has been attack by the math and statistical pros from the classroom aspect.  They ran millions and billions of hands to find out, 'what happens'.  Fine.  Not wrong.  But cannot be applied in any real—shape and form, to give the player a 'real and definitive' edge. 

Why, simply because of what I just did.  Again, it might be wrong, but whatever.

500 Wins/18,500 Spins. 
2 Mins. Average a spin (in real life casinos) not on the computer of course.
2 Mins. Translates to 120 seconds.
That translates to 2,220,000 seconds
3,600 seconds in 1 hour.
To spin and play 18,500 spins to be assured (if math will assure every series, every time those wins) it would take 616 to 617 hours to play that series of spins.

Okay, Superman, lots of energy drinks and coffee, etc.  He plays it.  Stay there and plays straight through the 616-617 hours.  You cannot stop, walk away and continue later, like so many math/stat freaks think, because the 'series' will be gone—not the same one, etc.

Okay, back.  Straight through.  Superman (the math/stat freak believer) hires numerous people to play the 25 to 26 days straight. 

One unit, $25.00, one green chip.  Say the 500 wins are going to be straight up number, 1 unit yields 35 chips/units payout.  He would win, $25.00 X's 35, equals $875.00. POINT B: He wins a total of $437,500.00 on the 500 wins.  Likewise, 18,500 spins, minus the 500 wins, leaves 18,000 lost spins on that number.  18,000 times $25.00 chip that was lost to the casino. POINT A: He losses a total of $450.000.00.  Great. 

Every math/stat results would have to be played from the start to the end, to realize the math produced result, no? 

Or is there a way to sprinkle a bit of magical dust, somewhere along the way—during those series?

As Mark Twain said....."It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.  It's what you know for sure that just ain't so".
#1447
I wrote it back in February.

IMO, Variance really does mean volatility and variability.

That is where a complete clear vision, 100% consciousnesses, correct frame-of-mind, and all the other psych things in order and really in-tune to, will allow you to capitalize very nicely on any opportunities that present themselves.
#1448
Nudge--Bump.

Pretty good topic, fits along with many things thrown out into the limelight recently around here.....
#1449
Alrelax's Blog / Re: YOU FOUND 'THE BLOG'
June 13, 2018, 10:54:23 PM
Little 'King' at an Asian Restaurant.  Have you ever seen a pizza delivery to an Asian restaurant before?  My little king eating pizza at his mom's restaurant, at the counter, doing his thing! 

[attach=1]

[attach=2]
#1450
https://betselection.cc/math-statistics/situational-awareness/msg63604/?PHPSESSID=7cs392thf2v9bonuoooctfb381#msg63604

Situation Awareness.

And, yes variables do change within the course of gaming/gambling as well as changing within the course of a shoe, etc.  Most certainly

#1451
Math & Statistics / Situational Awareness
June 13, 2018, 07:10:58 PM
Worth reading, understanding and exploring, for those that really desire to understand what is possible and how you should approach casino gambling as well, IMO.  And, variables do change within the course of casino play, within the course of a baccarat shoe, within the course of spinning the roulette ball during a period of time, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situation_awareness
#1452
The article and others like it are great 'base' research and informational basics for players that truly want the understanding how the risk in the gaming business depends on certain things and length of play. desire to research, read, understand and use something in their own defense, etc.

Here is a few words as to what I am referring about, "Risk in the gaming business depends on the house advantage, standard deviation, bet size, and length of play".

In my own play, at least since 2000 and after, I attempt to stay 100% fully consciousness of 'length of play'.  Good Lord, do I know the down side of 4 hours or more or anything close to that, but a $10k or $20k win in the first hour or even 30 minuets, is extremely hard to walk to the cashier, cash out and leave.  But, once you truly understand casino mathematics, you can use them to your own advantage. 

Casino mathematics in no way shape or form, translates to every player will lose 'XYZ'% religiously, etc.  It means, if you play what the casino sets as "average bet, bet size, and length of play with whatever hold percentage they use", that will generally translate to what you should lose if you play 4 hours or greater a day.  Not what you have to lose or are certainly going to lose.  Likewise, you might, and as well-you might not. 

That is why virtually every comp is based upon '4 hours' of play being inserted with the other parameters.  Unless a floor person or host hand writes the comp based upon your known play and history, etc., at the property. 

#1453
I received permission from Dr. David G. Schwartz, today to link to the article (but not to reproduce the content of the article on our site), 'Understanding Casino Math', which I think is a very well written and effective article for many purposes.  Showing how casinos use math, a basic understanding of casino math and how the casino related writers refer to 'HAs', etc. 

I do think this is an important work and certainly has value to use as a base of understanding from many aspects and points of view.

The author, recently past away and I will include a link as to whom he was as well.  He has written numerous things relating to casinos and players. 

Permission granted through, Dr. David G. Schwartz, Director, UNLV, Center for Gaming Research, 4505 Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154-7010. 

"This guide, written by casino math professor Robert Hannum, contains a brief, non-technical discussion of the basic mathematics governing casino games and shows how casinos make money from these games. The article addresses a variety of topics, including house advantage, confusion about win rates, game volatility, player value and comp policies, casino pricing mistakes, and regulatory issues. Statistical advantages associated with the major games are also provided."

http://gaming.unlv.edu/casinomath.html

Reference the author:

He was affiliated with the University of Denver:  http://news.du.edu/remembering-professor-robert-hannum/

From the author's website:  http://mysite.du.edu/~rhannum/
#1454
Rules and Enforceable Guidelines

#1  First and foremost personal and family privacy is sacrosanct here in BetSelection.cc, members and staff alike bear a responsibility for reporting such violations immediately. We take privacy seriously. We have zero tolerance for invasions of privacy, which includes publishing anything including links and other information/contact data, etc., to any member of this board for any reason whatsoever without the express consent and permission of the member you link or other information refers to.

#2  Our staff is not immune to these rules. As much as there are temporary mutes and permanent bans for members, we can remove moderators temporarily or even ban them entirely from exercising such duties in response to complaints from members. The correct course of action to contest a mod action is to open a thread in our Council section. We are malleable. Rules are for everyone here in BetSelection.cc

#3  To maintain harmony on the forum we ask that all members refrain from making any comments about ethnicity, religion or politics.  Such comments can so often lead to inflammatory, defensive posts from others. We don't want such a thing happening here.

Please Note:
 
You can describe others in your writings with the use of Nationalities, Male/Female, Age, Appearances, etc., in a generic, neutral and general way without those descriptions being used for derogatory or harmful purposes to the party involved.  We do not allow the use of ethnic, religious, political, gender, etc., comments regarding an individual on this board or otherwise when used in a specific manner that is inflammatory, defensive and judgmental against that individual.   

#4  It goes without saying:
No trolling. No name calling. And no personal attacks on individual members because you dislike, or disagree with, what they wrote.

No pestering, badgering, following/chasing around the forum ad continually posting in a challenging, defensive and/or aggressive type of message to any member.  A certain level of respect should be maintained by all members and at the very least, a level of neutrality will generally accomplish just that.

No, 'Belittling--Chastising--Humiliation--Degradation' is allowed.  PM's are to remain private between the 2 parties involved at all times.


Copy & Pasting of any PM without the original senders permission of such, is a blatant and forbidden violation of this board:  Simply, 'copy & pasting' a 'PM' on our board or any other message board/forum/website is dead-on wrong and against our rules.  A 'PM' is a private message and a contract to remain private which was conveyed and took place over the messaging system within BetSelection.  Without the permission of the original sender, the entire message remains private and confidential between the two parties.   

#5  We also ask fellow posters to refrain from using 4-letter words in their posts. By that we mean words associated with procreation, private body-parts and bodily functions in particular.

#6   No posting or uploading material which is available commercially or still subject to copyright.


No sales or published links of any kind to any commercial cause/website/program or item, without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators.

No direct selling or linking to a member?s or member?s affiliate of any kind without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators.   

Copying & Pasting: Within normal use, responses, references and dialogs, the linking or copying & pasting of YouTube items, news items, and other publicly published items of a general nature, can be linked or copy & pasted if there are no warnings that same cannot be done.

However, research and technical articles, University/Trade School/Consultants published info and data on the internet or otherwise, other related material, will almost always have a disclosure, warning and/or instructions, within the article/info about the publishing/copy and pasting/linking of it, etc.

Those warnings must be followed exactly with a copy of the permission being forwarded to the Board Moderators and/or the Administrators prior to your posting of that type of posting.


Small passages from a published novel, fiction or non-fiction books, etc., there should be no problem with quoting, along with full reference to the publication such as, Book Title, Author's Name, Publication Date and the Publishing House.

#7  Since this is a space for posting and analyzing bets for making conclusions: No bloviating, no hinting-only.

#8  We reserve the right to fully or partially edit, reinstate or remove content from posts and issue bans for any "reasonable reason" as considered by the staff, including a member or thread not matching our site's productive spirit.


#9  No Real-money betting among members allowed.

#10  Please note this is an English-speaking forum. While we welcome people from all over the world to enjoy us, we kindly ask that all posts are always written in English only. This way we all keep a common ground to foster union.

#11  Personal links to a members or other persons email, website, or other message board/forum of any kind (including those of the casino/gambling/gaming nature) must be approved by a Board Moderator or one of the Administrators, prior to such placement within a post/thread.


#12  If anyone brings up, makes reference to, copy & paste, links to---any other board with a derogatory, negative, drama seeking post that anyone made here on BetSelection then it will be deleted, and the member will quite likely invoke a consequence.  The same applies to bringing up previous postings on BetSelection.  Simple -- don?t do it.

Violations of the above may result in a discussion, warning, or a form of moderation from temporary to permanent, depending on the type and repetitiveness of the violation(s). 
#1455
 Adding to the Series of 10 as #10-A in a Series of 10.