"Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it.  Boldness has genius, power and magic in it"  Goethe.

"Only those who will risk going too far can possible find out how far it is possible to go"  T.S. Elliot.

"What you have to do and the way you do it is incredibly simple.  Whether you are willing to do it is another matter.  Peter Drucker.

"Take risks: If you win, you will be happy: if you lose, you will be wise".  Anonymous.

"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it".  Michelangelo.

"You don't lead by pointing and telling people some place to go.  You lead by going to that place and making a case".  Ken Kesey.

"Vision is the art of seeing things invisible".  Jonathan Swift.

"People only see what they are prepared to see".  Ralph Waldo Emerson.

"In order to be a realist, you must believe in miracles".  David Ben Gurion.


I will write 4 parts to this thread.  They will be:

Part 1:  H-Money texted me last night at midnight after promising me he would not go to the casino and wait for Friday night.

Part 2:  Bank-Roll, Buy-In & Wagering.  Reality with safety and comfort.

Part 3:  What I wager & Risk, most times.

Part 4:  Vision--Pressures & Psych.


[attach=1]

[attach=2]

And as I drive to my business this morning, instead of sunshine and bright skies, this is what I was faced with as I dwelled in H-Money's text's from last night and his devastating loss:

[attach=3]

And, I spent a good hour with him on the phone last night explaining why I would not go to the casino until Friday and just stay home--please!  I was cooking a pizza from scratch, and preparing to watch the classic movie 'Speed'.  Here is a pic of the pizza just before adding the garlic and seasoning on top and getting it under the broiler for 3 min's to finish it up.  A beer, corn on the cob and the pizza!  Yes--it was nothing shy of great! I planned my night, stuck to it and I am not going to the casino until Friday, late night. 

[attach=4]

Have to love it!

I stop at a casino on the way back from my week long train accident versus tractor trailer clean up. 

The bac table is busy, new shoe.  Looked like this:

B--P
B--P
    P
    P
    P (panda


So I sit down.  I changed a thousand dollars and put it all on the Banker.  For many reasons.  Beginning of the shoe, chances are 4-6 will cut, everyone lost the last 3 Players because  they were determined to wager the 'cut' after the 2 Bankers and 2 matching Players.  Then the Panda came out and the highest majority of panda and F-7's do 'cut' to the opposite side.

So, I wagered the bank and said to myself 2 Bankers and then 'cut' to the one Player and I will leave. 

This is what happened.

B--P--B
B--P--B
    P
    P
    P(

So I pressed and pulled it all down and put up only $50 on the players side and of course it made another Banker.  Everyone else cited '2 by 2' and pressed most of their bets up as well and the whole table was wagering Players side.  We all lost that one.   I got up and colored up.  I watched the people.  The all switched back to the Banker side, while most pointed to the 5 Players and citing, 'it will match the Player side'. 

It turned into this:

B--P--B
B--P--B
    P--B
    P
    P(

Then they all talked and huddled up.  Lots of talk and pointing to the board.  They all wagered on the Bankers side like I said except for one person with a small wager on the Player side.  They argued and asked him to take it off.  He did.  Then it makes a Player with  four monkeys and then a 7 for the player and a 6 for the Bankers.

Oh lord, thank goodness the casinos put the electronic score boards in, makes it so much easier for the players to see what is actually going on, huh??

Apparently a convenience store clerk cannot even do basic math skills any longer these days??

I stop for gas yesterday on an interstate.  The purchase inside the store came to $2.12.  I put a $10.00 bill on the counter and went into my pocket to get the change.  He rings it upon the register and the cash drawer pops open.  I put 2 pennies on the counter and he looks at me, kind of stunned.  Cocks his head to the side and said, "I already rang it up".  I said, "yeah no problem, there are the 2 pennies" expecting 90 cents back and of course $7.00.  He continues doing what he start out to do and hands me, $7.88 change.  I said, 'isn't .90 change easier', and he said, "I already rang it up". 

Then I go get gas and pre-paid $15.00.  My car only held $11.50.  I went back in and put .50--2 of the quarters he just gave me, expecting, $4.00 change.  He hands me $3.50 and asks me, "why did you give me the .50"?  Told him I wanted 4 dollar bills back.  So he looks at me all confused again.  He takes the .50 and puts it in the register and hands me a dollar bill.  He says, "is that right now", I said, "no" and handed him the .50 he gave me back and told him, "now it is".  He said, "okay".

8 to 10 with hour session is huge!  Usually 1 or 2 shoes maybe 3.

Not just streaks by any means!   Just as much great money can be obtained by wagering with the weak!

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 11, 2018, 07:18:33 PM
Snowman: "That's why I never claim that I can predict randomness. You don't need to predict anything. You just have to know what characteristics of normal random events look like. Nobody can tell when a trend will start, end, or continue. Yet those three things happen all day long. But what is real interesting is how expectation has an effect on people in a form of a kind of blinding them. If you can't predict something, you should never fall into the trap of expecting a thing to happen, except in cases where a different skill like VB or apparatus defects may be considered. But leaving out those skills, expectation is a trap. But then there is this: You can guess until your guesses are in sink with win streaks. At that point you are still just blindly guessing, but your sequence of guesses can fall into a perfect 100% pattern with your winning bets. You can still do well in a casino if your bets/guesses are just running at 80%. It all comes down to being agile enough to hit the good streak harder than the bad streaks. For that you need to use your brains. Stupid people should leave the difficult stuff to the smart ones. Everybody wants to get on the expectation band wagon. They want an easy win. And that is why sharing what works is not really that dangerous to those of us that can do it. D. Sir is not worried about sharing his expertise. It's a highly refined skill. It has to be."

Excellent! 

Expect the random and pounce on the unexpected random when it comes along, large and hard!

Something along the same lines.  I had an expartner in new jersey that used to kill it and slam the casinos  most every weekend big time betting large amounts on roulette straight up numbers.  He would wager like 30 numbers or so at a time.  Won the highest majority of his plays.  Then the law of averages or what the winners by their own success fail to acknowledge happens, happened.

Good lord, what he won over a short period he gave back many times over.  He lost his share of a viable profitable business and beautiful house as well as other paid for assets. 

I remember him running the numbers on a computer every week to verify his success or his comeback after the downfall.  He was always so confident.

Quote from: Nickmsi on March 10, 2018, 04:49:54 PM


I certainly don't agree with your demeaning assessment.  Both are gambling. Both take your money.
Thanks

Most of my experience has been On Line and as such it offers many different perspectives that cannot be achieved in the B & M casino.

Nick


I said on line as an adventure and on paper.  I did not refer to online gamblers with actual risk of funds.

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 10, 2018, 02:11:09 PM

If you are saying that the online adventure is a quest to find a mindless mechanical system online and then take it into a casino to use it, assuming that no mistakes will be made, then there might not be a noticeable difference. If anyone is willing to do real world power testing of a system then the results would be the same. This is proven by expert card counters in the game of 21. But what really happens to most of these people is that they don't do the work to become expert card counters. When they go into the real casino they make mistakes. In that case there is a huge difference.


TurboGenius is still claiming that he beats the casinos with the use of hot numbers and that he does that because of mathematics. He even just made that claim today. A bunch of us set out to master his method based on breadcrumbs and clues he left online and in private conversations he had with others. I already proved I could make a rear-end of myself trying it. The only evidence of validation he could give me at this point would be his gambling winning tax return. He could somehow disclose it as proof without giving out SS numbers I suppose. It would be fascinating if he really did it. But he has been a system player for more than 13 years. He may actually believe he did it on paper. They call it confirmation bias. It's a very common mistake made by educated researchers.


If anyone that has a bet selection method that works well for them in real world practice settings, that person must also know that once they put money on the line that they could lose, they will have to face their own ability to handle any inevitable losses along the way. The system player, if they stick to the system, takes decision making out of the process. But even that is very hard to do. A very good card counter can still hit a random bad streak even though they have followed the method perfectly. That is why casinos encourage card counters to try and go for it. The casinos have made ten times as much off the wannabee card counters as they would have if the casino had just banned all of them. These amateur players almost always get taken out by their weak bankrolls. And it's real easy to find the good players and just ban them instead. So there are two kinds of online players and there are two kinds of real casino players in my opinion. There are no mindless system players that the casinos need to look out for. They do have to watch out for defective wheels though. And they still need to watch out for cheaters.

Actually saying, there are thsoe that stay on-line without going or very limited attempt at the real world translation of their on-line pre-programmed event they describe in detail within the forums and the real world gambler that actaully does whatever he says, no matter if that is winning or losing. 

For sake of explanation again, I put you into the latter 'world'.  I put some others (lots) into the first.  kind of like my kids, watch the movie 'The Black Panther', go out and buy them masks, claws and other movie stuff they pretend and play.  They go into the real world with it--yes.  But that does not make them, 'The Balck Panther' or whatever they pretend to be.  It allows them to act out and explore and expand their imaginations. 

So there are two worlds no?  The on-line adventure and the real casino world of gambling. 

And yes, if you do beat something on-line does that mean it will translate into the real casino world for an actaul pay-off repeatedly?  Etc.

Mark, Would you not agree that there are two separate worlds?  The on-line adventure to 'beat-the-casino- on paper and the real gambling world at the casinos?

The same as reading and watching a video about say, using a lawnmower and then actaully doing it??

Quote from: Bally6354 on March 09, 2018, 03:46:49 PM
That's quite a statement Giz. A young kid walked into the local supermarket store and stole a bar of candy. Mr Singh has now closed down all his 5 shops. A shame really 'eh.

But,  how many of those kids turned out to be the shooter like the 19 year old at Parkland, Florida that killed 17 other kids because of their way of thinking??

Defining events that will and do frequently happen is the foremost thing in baccarat a succesful player would desire to do when he is actaully playing.

Live baccarat versus the test or practice game on your computer are two entirely different things whatsoever.  I would hjave to liken that comparsion to watching a video of cutting a lawn with a lawnmower and the event of actaully doing the same thing.  Different and so many things can aome about but the saem principle. 

The problem so many do and expect when they study and study and find their 'gig' or 'key triggers' on the internet, is they set a schedule for themselves for that definitive wagering.  Bad, wrong and will not work. 

Frame-of-Mind with wide vision to be neutral is a huge player's plus and baccarat player's advantage overlooked by the player's ego, desires and greed as well as his desperation to recoup past losses.  The other thing he will offend himself with, is his inability to play all side of baccarat and what the shoe will eventually present.  He narrow his thoughts and preceptions to either one of the two most popular things, which is the shoe being extremely strong or weak.  He fails to admit it does both sides with a bit of the 'middle' mixed in while it does both sides or it does not do either side. 

Vision must be neutral without that typical, strong headed narrow focus in wagering for a certain event, that you are counting on coming out as a result of what happened rather than what is happening or what could happen. 

Traditional Vision:  What you see and interpret from the past which generally overrules anything else.

Traditional Thought:  What you think will happen and suit you best.  More desires than actually getting into any kind of real thought.

Traditional Results:  What had happened.  "Look at what came out", and then basing things on that.

Traditional Realization:  The whole scene in totality with limited sight, again thoinking whaty is happening is going to happen, not matter with the shoe presentment or otherwise.

Better Vision:  What can form; weak--strong--alternating--doubles--1's 2's and 3's--streaks, anything and everything, etc.

Better Thought:  Not limited to one or two sets of anything or your own desires.  Most importantly, adding pssoibilities in the correct way tot he thought processing picture.

Better Results:  Looking at them and what the total picture is into sections and events, not into a whole shoe or multiple shoes in the attempt to match statistics and long term results. 

Better Realization:  What has happened, what is yet to happen, what can or can not be 'reasonably' possible, what can happen on a more consistant and regular basis or on an infrequent and limited basis, etc. 

I limit my discussion to basically baccarat as I do not and will not play roulette.  Nothing wrong with it, i just don't play it. 

However, as I have play extensively around the USA at numerous casinos, I really do feel it is the pschy of the player, a skilled player that actaully causes his lost.

The streaks and the repeating, 'whatever' is extremely easy to make money on.  Wager $500.00 on the Banker and keep it there and press one time on the win you are riding for $1,000.00 for the 5 or 8 or 10 times the same side, Banker or if you were on Player came out.  And then you lose only the last one when it cuts.  So just say you won 8 and gave back the last one that lost.  So you won $7,000.00 and then a series of 1's, 2's and 3's came and the player's pschy directed him to to stay with the repeating style of wagering.  He could not control himself and was all hyped and motivated by the $7k win.  He gives half of it back and then the frustration sets in. 

Then he convinces himself he he should adapt to the shoe and switches to the cut or the short repeating style of wagering, etc.  He wins a few and then the shoe produces 2 longer streaks of both Bankers and Players.  The his real frustation sets in because  he knew he lost an easy $15k or so if he only did what he did with the 8 Bankers in the beginning. 

Then he switches back and the shoe switches the opposite way as well. 

That is the serious problem and what really does happen more often than not.

Then he waits and gets his thoughts back.  Then he starts to win with the cut style and the chop style of wagering a few here and there.  He is not satified with the few unit win as everyone states they do and gets rich off of.  (Which is pure B.S. because  99.9% of everyone can not and will not control themselves). 

There are numerous things to learn and abide to in a game that can produce anything at anytime and a game that will do it without mathametical reasoning.  The shoe will follow itself as well as not.  The shoe will produced everything from 20 of one of two sides to one of each side, side by side for another 20 times.  And, then the shoe will produc everything in between. 

Everyone here bascially says, just wager this or that and stick to it.  You will win so much a day.  You cannot do that everyday.  No matter what you want to say, it will and then it will not happen with any followed protocol you abide to with certain scheduled wagers.

The only way to constantly prevail at baccarat, is to wager with what the shoe is producing, if you win more than your buy in (for example) to switch over to some kind of money management system and play on the casino's money while you pocketed your buy-in and maybe 2/3rds of the win money, then attmepting to continue until you lose the 1/3rd, or whatever number percentage you work with.  But you win has to out number you lost buy-ins.  That is only accomplished with self control, complete knoweldge of what can and will happen, and expereince including losses within this game.  But for almost everyone, it is nearly impossible to walk away without getting back their loss when one occurs without further buy ins and play, and that is what sinks them.  Then you can be somewhat successful.

And, you can have thosuands of units as your bankroll as someone cites here all the time in plain generic responses.  You can wager the same thing every single day until you finally win a few units.  Then you can stop.  But the bankroll will be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars and your wagers will have to be pretty small to make it work with hundreds of units of draw downs.  LOL. 

What a tough way to make a living.  I could take that hundreds of thousand of dollars and make a great living in Haz-Mat spill clean up making tens of thosuands of dollars on small jobs and 6 figure profits on the larger jobs, where my profit to expenses ratio is around 70-80% profit. LOL.  LOL to the 100th power!!

" The question should be when to enter and exist each bias to catch the next coming one."

I can only assume 'exist' is actuality meant to be 'exit'.

Enter and exit by identifying a possible 'benefit' and your money management system has to 100% control you and you have to abide by it.

There are identifiable events that happen in baccarat, I can only assume other games as well.  I wrote some of my stronger ones that I put into tangible form.  These are mine that I have found cause winning and losing hands.  You probably will not agree, but it works for me.  My win money far exceeds my lost buy-ins that I risk.  But I employ more than a mechanical wagering system with no self-control.
   
But then there are tons of other factors most gamblers do not even realize take place.  Such as greed-ego-frame-of-mind, etc., etc., etc.  But the are player inflicted downsides and his physiological state. 

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 07, 2018, 02:36:39 PM

It's what you came for. Don't let the ending of a streak take back all your progress. Become an experienced expert at watching how trends and streaks end.[/font]

Disclaimer: I have yet to prove I can beat a casino 100 % of the time.

That is why my Money Management System protects my win money 100% of the time.  I abide by it 99.9% of the time.

I have explained it.

If I won $10,000.00 on a streak, I will lock up my buy-in and 2/3rds of the win money, done, over.

I continue with about $3,500.00 of the casinos money and attempt to win more.  If that becomes depleted with no further win money, I satisfied that 'itchy-itch', etc., etc., etc.  It works 100% of the time which I 99% of the time realize.

I wish I knew that many years ago!

Seems the past few days/week--that more and more letters that are actually typed are either changed or removed by automatic something?

Seems more entire words are changed around also or deleted as well, after being typed.

FYI.