Here is what it looked like this morning, early--on the way into my business.  Unlike the other day where it was all gloomy and miserable.  Another 2 hours and I lock up my business and head out to the casino.

[attach=1]

It's a new day, it is Friday.  I spoke to H-Money and told him I will meet him at the casino in about 4 hours or so.  I called my retired New York City buddy that plays bac with me occasionally as well!  We are going to do everything we can to get H-Money's lost funds back.  No we are not chasing, we are going to smack the table, yell and scream, pump it up and do everything positive we can to 'over-power' that shoe and bang it out, BIG TIME! 

Like my man says, "U Can't Touch This".  Let's see what happens if I get an opportunity that presents itself for 10 -15 Bankers with a possible 2 or 3 F-7's in the run??  I will throw up $50.00 on all F-7 spots to get table max back on all 8 or 9 spots and $10 or $15 for each for the dealer tip.  I feel it, really do. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSkTr4B2YnI

Part 4:

Visions—Pressures & Psychology

For those of you that think there is no such factors as those I put above, are currently in fantasy land of 'I don't know where' and very oblivious to the gambling effect of winning or losing money within a casino.  Period.

With that said, I have been able to define those areas and I have written about them in detail within my Blog and the Baccarat Room here in BetSelection.

There certainly are other factors and considerations in baccarat.   But those are my main three that are within my 'intangible' and 'non-shoe/non game' category.  Hopefully you understand?  You have to function when you play, the same as you have to perform when and if you do sports.  Your body and fitness is your ammunition in sports, no?  Your brain including your sub-conscious and your conscious states (frame-of-mind, etc.) is your intangible fuel along with your body for the tangible power.  I transpose that to gambling as well. 

I have wrote about all these as well within my Blog and the Baccarat Room here on BetSelection.  But I will throw out a recap and thoughts pertaining to each.

Within my Blog on the board, at:  https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/, you will be able to read my thoughts in a series of posts I wrote, "1-10 in a Series) contained all within the first page of the highlighted section at the above link.  I am writing the below with a twist because of what happened to my buddy 'H-Money' this morning at the casino and his loss. 

Vision:  My vision focuses on what is being presented, how it is being presented and what is yet to be presented.  This more than anything else is such an important ingredient to winning at baccarat.  If you can divide up the shoe into 'sections' that will allow you to even focus greater and with more precision.  Almost every shoe will have 'sections' and 'turning points', they represent what the shoe is producing and how it was produced, both.  For whatever reason and even if I could define the reason it does not matter, if I can have the vision to identify what is happening and I wager on it—my winning wager is easily parlayed and the power and fuel I receive from something like that, is extremely intense and allows myself to pounce easily on an opportunity rather than fighting it and negatively seeing what is positively happening.  Here, in layman's terms.  I much rather have a $300.00 wager on the Banker and have it win, parlay my second one to $600.00 and have that one win also, wager $900.00 on the 3rd attempt at the Banker and stack up $300.00 back in my chip stack so I have a zero risk amount at what might happen---if I lose.  But if the Banker goes another 8 repeats I will pull down $7,200.00 rather than predicting the cut is coming and continually wagering on the Player because of the consistency of 1's, 2's and 3's as being the most favorable in baccarat, etc. and everyone else was wagering that way.  My 'vision' saw through the player and banker winning/losing hand total point values with their reductions and additions, as well as the 'sections' and 'turning points' as well as what had or had not happened, etc., etc., and with completely clear frame-of-mind, 'vision' produced a opportunity that was coming forth for presentment and I saw it. 

To go into the game with the 'vision' of winning money based upon mechanical pre-scheduled events that I learned from the statistical mathematics of the game through the internet and systems authors, I much rather be selling magical dust in a container, door-to-door with some kind of religious meaning. 

Pressure:  To have pressure from your borrowed bankroll or buy-in funds will be huge and cause you to make extremely poor decisions as well as false promises to yourself that you can make money.  Any and all pressure from personal affairs, business matters and other concerns must be checked at the door or you will be adding huge negativity to your mind-set that will affect you in horrible ways.  Simple.  Period. 

As well, you must have the comfort and safety of a bankroll and buy-in that will not matter in your life if it is lost or dwindles down.  Your buy-in, IMO and experience must be disposable and considered, viewed and handled as 'risk' capital that can be lost without any effect upon yourself for the immediate time.  The pressure and the clouded vision that will happen because you are deficient in the financial end will almost always be devastating to yourself. 

Psychology:  Not easily understood or in fact, believed by most in the gambling arena.  You sub-conscious and your conscious mind-sets are huge contributing factors to your decision making ability at the table.  Believe it or not.  If you believe something because so-and-so put a Voodoo curse at there or sprinkled magical dust on the cards or someone points to the score board and says it will be 'such-and-such' because the other side has to catch up, you are the casino's best friend and the reason they installed those large visible score boards with the multiple roads.  All you will wind up doing is catching a 'dragons tail' with 15 or so winning hands and then losing another 105 hands by following or applying your wisdom you believe you have from whatever it is caused you to win those 15 hands. 

The effect of psych has a terrific amount to do with wagering and the beliefs of a player.  Be careful and 100% conscious of what you are doing and why you are doing something when wagering. 

Part 3:

Wagering & Risk

You have to find what fits you, your comfort and safety levels as well as your bankroll and downswings.  What works for me is what I outlined in Part 2 above. 

It is very important to me to always be conscious of the fact that losing time is coming, if I have been winning.  That is why I subscribe to my type of money management system and my '1 + 4 Side Parlay' wagers I place out of win money.  I far exceed my losses because I do not gamble all or most of my win money the way so many players do. 

I transpose my larger wagers to the sections that look great and present themselves for being favorable to me and if I start winning, I pounce on it with a very limited risk amount out of my buy-in or even out of my win money that is still on the table. 

It is of the utmost important for me to lock up my buy-in and some win money as soon as possible to allow myself the comfort and safety I need for the session to stay completely neutral and pressure-free.

As well my buy-in amount will not change anything with my lifestyle, bills, personal life or anything else financially for myself.  It does for so many players and their level of stress, pressure and everything else they carry when they play is astronomical, past comprehension. 

If I won, my money management system will allow me to stop and leave always a winner.  Before, years ago—I never had anything in place such as I do the past 15 years or so.  Once I did, my whole game has improved countless times over what it used to be. 

I really do not have a set wagering amount for anything.  I take many variables into consideration as the game/shoe progresses as to how much I will or will not wager.  Or if I will wager at all on certain hands or a section forming within the shoe.  My success/wins actually is governed by my vision and my ability to really maintain a neutral position and catch the opportunities that do present themselves for whatever reason within a shoe.

To me, there is no other way to actually play baccarat with set wagering amounts and bets based upon what has or has not happened within the shoe. 

Part 2:

Bankroll—Buy In & Relationship to Your Personal Situation

Bankrolls:  Bankroll is the amount of money you have in liquid, cash form—to gamble with.  A bankroll is separate from your buy-in amount.  Different people will certainly find varies ways to compile their own bankroll and buy in amounts. 

Personally, I have two different bank rolls for two different types of casino play.  One is for an extended period at a larger gaming jurisdictions, such as Las Vegas, Southern California or Atlantic City because those are my 'travel-to' stay a week or so, type of destinations.  Then there is my local Midwest type of place where I might go once or twice a week, usually. 

I usually keep the amount of $25k for my local bankroll and the amount of $50k for other 'travel-to' destinations.  I always replenish my bank rolls if I lose or win.  I never build my bank roll larger and larger, seeking to play at other levels.  Mainly—because I am past all that, been there and done it.  I am comfortable playing at the level and the plateaus I play at.  Anything out of that for myself, I will not perform well, feel pressure and have clouded vision.  I have written about all this stuff within my Blog or the Baccarat Room on this board. 

Yet, so many on the internet message boards all dwell on playing excessively, building their bank rolls and playing larger and larger, etc.  I find all of their talk, extremely difficult if not impossible to believe is true and what they actually do.  I know gambling, casinos and baccarat and what they claim is second nature to them is most likely what they do desire but more fiction than non-fiction. 

Lately there has been talk about 'percentages' and what should or should not be gambled, wagered and bought in with as compared to a bankroll.  I find that extremely useless myself and cannot and does not work for me or anyone of my friends that do gamble on a regular basis.  Mainly for the reason, winning is important and we score some nice wins and if we really did pay attention to percentages as a guideline, we would not realize the nice and 'great' wins we do.  However, we do incorporate a money management system into our play almost religiously which is my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1./3rd system.  Again, I have explained this in detail and depth within my Blog and the Baccarat Room here on BetSelection. 

I do always replenish my lost funds from my Bankroll when they happen.  Usually out of win money and if I start to lose repeatedly, I slow down and replace the Bankroll through other means.  It bothers me to have a shrinking Bankroll and I do not play well when I do lose more than a few sessions without winning.  I would say that my Bankroll is just about always replenished through other wins rather than pulling money to replenish it from other means.  If I do, I would replenish that money from other wins to make myself whole. 

How do I stay whole?  I do not gamble large amounts of money the way I used to say, 15 years ago plus.  Meaning my buy-ins are much smaller than my bankroll, of course. 

Buy-In:  My local buy-in would generally be anywhere from $500.00 to $1,500.00 as a norm.  I vary depending on what I recently won and as well, how the first shoe goes as I sit down.  Also, I have to take into thought, the other players and the aura of the location as well.  I am of the extreme mind, if I win I can win.  If I lose I will lose.  I can win as easily with $1,000.00 as I can with $5,000.00 or $10,000.00.  However, I do not play for 1 or 2 or 3 or 5 units the way so many cite that they do, each and every day, each and every session, etc.  I play to win and double to triple my buy-in and then go into my money management system along with a
1 + 4 Side Parlay' 3 or 4 chance attempt with win money also.  I do risk what I buy-in with.  That works best for me and has been working great for a number of years.  I could take a $25,000.00 bank roll and buy-in 4 times at about $6,200.00 a time and have four chances to make something.  Or, I can buy-in 20-25 times at $1,000.00 or so and play the game I know will produce extreme ups and downs and really work to lock back up the buy-in and some win money, continue playing and attempt to do that several times.  But they key to doing that is the will power and the absolute walking away when you do lose.  I have it down and I seldom falter on it. 

I play at $10.00 to $25.00 tables locally and $100.00 and up outside of the Midwest.  Locally I generally start with $75.00 to $100.00 and see what happens.  At times I might wager $25.00 or $50.00 to stay in the game if not many people are playing.  But I strictly subscribe to a 1-3-2-6 or a 1-3-2-4 positive progression.  At times I will strictly parlay once or twice and let it ride once or twice as well and then pull it down.  It all depends on too many factors to list here in an article about bankrolls and buy-ins, etc.  The point is the pressure to at least double or triple my buy-in and then it becomes much easier and extremely profitable for me.  I do that well over 50% of the times I play and maybe that is why I can pull off the kind of profit I generally do at this game along with the key factor of not increasing the bankroll and playing at unrealistic limits with unrealistic desires and goals, once again IMO and experience. 

I wrote about what happened last weekend after I played 3 times during the week and won in excess of $40k and then lost $15k on Friday night and Saturday morning.  That only 100% convinces me that my way of playing is correct. 

As well, my safety and comfort is a huge contribution factor to my clear vision which is an absolute must to have the ability to see what is happening.  Not only with the shoe presentments, but also with your buy-in, winning or losing actions, etc.  IMO and experience, if you do not have safety and comfort in your gambling, you have no ability to do anything except lose your bank roll and repeatedly fail at making any kind of money from the casino.  You will be eaten alive without even knowing what had happened to yourself.  More about the other things I have mentioned other than Bankroll and Buy-ins, in Parts 3 and 4. 

Here it is, the text just came.  The exact same as someone reading how to make money playing 'such and such' a system on the internet and running to the casino and actually spending their money on it cause a 'guru' said it can be done according to the statistics, etc.

[attach=1]

Part 1:

H-Money calls me and wants to go to the casino together.  Says he can't sleep because  he is thinking about his losses last weekend when we kind of imploded.  I told him I would not and could not go.  I know in my mind 100% what would happen and we need a few more days without the casino.  I have been doing this too long.  He tells me he understands and would not go.  I could hear in his voice, the desires and his desperate need to get whole again.  I further explain everything he did was his choice and his mistakes.  Nothing to do with the casino.  I repeat it and thought I convinced him.  Told him to come over my house and let's eat pizza together and watch some movies, he could crash out and wake up and head to work with a clear mind.  He said he was okay and would stay home.

That was all around 9PM or so.  Then about 12:30AM he texts me, he is at the casino  A bit later tells me he is down a few grand.

Calls me at 3:00AM and tells me he lost $10,000.00 of borrowed cash and  few thousand of his own money. 

6:30am is still at the casino and knows he can win back his cash.  Wants me to go there.  There is no possible way I am going into a negative, resentful, desperate scene in the pursuit to recoup lost money.  It will not work, only get yourself into a deeper and more resentful place than you stand already, far greater than 100% chances that is, probably 1,000%!  We don't borrow money from each other for gambling, I have my own and he always has his own or gets it from elsewhere.  I know he took most of his gambling bank roll the past couple of months to make payroll for his business as his business income has been really bad.

I have text him numerous times and he has not answered yet.

I got to thinking about some of the posts on the board here about bankrolls, buy-ins and wagering.  Also about some links to the 'gurus' that post their statistical garbage elsewhere about 'how to win certain amounts' based on statistical data and their testing, etc. Follow what so many 'wizards' and 'statistical gurus' say you will do--the casino will eat you up and spit you out in a heart beat.   

So I am going to offer some more reality and what has worked for myself and others.  Of course if you push it and can not control yourself, as in anything else, drinking, drugs, speeding, personal relationship jealousy, etc., etc., gambling is no different.  Because gambling actually involves more than statistical mathematical equations.  It involves, emotions, psych, vision and frame-of-mind, yes it does 100%!

"Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it.  Boldness has genius, power and magic in it"  Goethe.

"Only those who will risk going too far can possible find out how far it is possible to go"  T.S. Elliot.

"What you have to do and the way you do it is incredibly simple.  Whether you are willing to do it is another matter.  Peter Drucker.

"Take risks: If you win, you will be happy: if you lose, you will be wise".  Anonymous.

"The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it".  Michelangelo.

"You don't lead by pointing and telling people some place to go.  You lead by going to that place and making a case".  Ken Kesey.

"Vision is the art of seeing things invisible".  Jonathan Swift.

"People only see what they are prepared to see".  Ralph Waldo Emerson.

"In order to be a realist, you must believe in miracles".  David Ben Gurion.


I will write 4 parts to this thread.  They will be:

Part 1:  H-Money texted me last night at midnight after promising me he would not go to the casino and wait for Friday night.

Part 2:  Bank-Roll, Buy-In & Wagering.  Reality with safety and comfort.

Part 3:  What I wager & Risk, most times.

Part 4:  Vision--Pressures & Psych.


[attach=1]

[attach=2]

And as I drive to my business this morning, instead of sunshine and bright skies, this is what I was faced with as I dwelled in H-Money's text's from last night and his devastating loss:

[attach=3]

And, I spent a good hour with him on the phone last night explaining why I would not go to the casino until Friday and just stay home--please!  I was cooking a pizza from scratch, and preparing to watch the classic movie 'Speed'.  Here is a pic of the pizza just before adding the garlic and seasoning on top and getting it under the broiler for 3 min's to finish it up.  A beer, corn on the cob and the pizza!  Yes--it was nothing shy of great! I planned my night, stuck to it and I am not going to the casino until Friday, late night. 

[attach=4]

Have to love it!

I stop at a casino on the way back from my week long train accident versus tractor trailer clean up. 

The bac table is busy, new shoe.  Looked like this:

B--P
B--P
    P
    P
    P (panda


So I sit down.  I changed a thousand dollars and put it all on the Banker.  For many reasons.  Beginning of the shoe, chances are 4-6 will cut, everyone lost the last 3 Players because  they were determined to wager the 'cut' after the 2 Bankers and 2 matching Players.  Then the Panda came out and the highest majority of panda and F-7's do 'cut' to the opposite side.

So, I wagered the bank and said to myself 2 Bankers and then 'cut' to the one Player and I will leave. 

This is what happened.

B--P--B
B--P--B
    P
    P
    P(

So I pressed and pulled it all down and put up only $50 on the players side and of course it made another Banker.  Everyone else cited '2 by 2' and pressed most of their bets up as well and the whole table was wagering Players side.  We all lost that one.   I got up and colored up.  I watched the people.  The all switched back to the Banker side, while most pointed to the 5 Players and citing, 'it will match the Player side'. 

It turned into this:

B--P--B
B--P--B
    P--B
    P
    P(

Then they all talked and huddled up.  Lots of talk and pointing to the board.  They all wagered on the Bankers side like I said except for one person with a small wager on the Player side.  They argued and asked him to take it off.  He did.  Then it makes a Player with  four monkeys and then a 7 for the player and a 6 for the Bankers.

Oh lord, thank goodness the casinos put the electronic score boards in, makes it so much easier for the players to see what is actually going on, huh??

Apparently a convenience store clerk cannot even do basic math skills any longer these days??

I stop for gas yesterday on an interstate.  The purchase inside the store came to $2.12.  I put a $10.00 bill on the counter and went into my pocket to get the change.  He rings it upon the register and the cash drawer pops open.  I put 2 pennies on the counter and he looks at me, kind of stunned.  Cocks his head to the side and said, "I already rang it up".  I said, "yeah no problem, there are the 2 pennies" expecting 90 cents back and of course $7.00.  He continues doing what he start out to do and hands me, $7.88 change.  I said, 'isn't .90 change easier', and he said, "I already rang it up". 

Then I go get gas and pre-paid $15.00.  My car only held $11.50.  I went back in and put .50--2 of the quarters he just gave me, expecting, $4.00 change.  He hands me $3.50 and asks me, "why did you give me the .50"?  Told him I wanted 4 dollar bills back.  So he looks at me all confused again.  He takes the .50 and puts it in the register and hands me a dollar bill.  He says, "is that right now", I said, "no" and handed him the .50 he gave me back and told him, "now it is".  He said, "okay".

8 to 10 with hour session is huge!  Usually 1 or 2 shoes maybe 3.

Not just streaks by any means!   Just as much great money can be obtained by wagering with the weak!

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 11, 2018, 07:18:33 PM
Snowman: "That's why I never claim that I can predict randomness. You don't need to predict anything. You just have to know what characteristics of normal random events look like. Nobody can tell when a trend will start, end, or continue. Yet those three things happen all day long. But what is real interesting is how expectation has an effect on people in a form of a kind of blinding them. If you can't predict something, you should never fall into the trap of expecting a thing to happen, except in cases where a different skill like VB or apparatus defects may be considered. But leaving out those skills, expectation is a trap. But then there is this: You can guess until your guesses are in sink with win streaks. At that point you are still just blindly guessing, but your sequence of guesses can fall into a perfect 100% pattern with your winning bets. You can still do well in a casino if your bets/guesses are just running at 80%. It all comes down to being agile enough to hit the good streak harder than the bad streaks. For that you need to use your brains. Stupid people should leave the difficult stuff to the smart ones. Everybody wants to get on the expectation band wagon. They want an easy win. And that is why sharing what works is not really that dangerous to those of us that can do it. D. Sir is not worried about sharing his expertise. It's a highly refined skill. It has to be."

Excellent! 

Expect the random and pounce on the unexpected random when it comes along, large and hard!

Something along the same lines.  I had an expartner in new jersey that used to kill it and slam the casinos  most every weekend big time betting large amounts on roulette straight up numbers.  He would wager like 30 numbers or so at a time.  Won the highest majority of his plays.  Then the law of averages or what the winners by their own success fail to acknowledge happens, happened.

Good lord, what he won over a short period he gave back many times over.  He lost his share of a viable profitable business and beautiful house as well as other paid for assets. 

I remember him running the numbers on a computer every week to verify his success or his comeback after the downfall.  He was always so confident.

Quote from: Nickmsi on March 10, 2018, 04:49:54 PM


I certainly don't agree with your demeaning assessment.  Both are gambling. Both take your money.
Thanks

Most of my experience has been On Line and as such it offers many different perspectives that cannot be achieved in the B & M casino.

Nick


I said on line as an adventure and on paper.  I did not refer to online gamblers with actual risk of funds.

Quote from: Gizmotron on March 10, 2018, 02:11:09 PM

If you are saying that the online adventure is a quest to find a mindless mechanical system online and then take it into a casino to use it, assuming that no mistakes will be made, then there might not be a noticeable difference. If anyone is willing to do real world power testing of a system then the results would be the same. This is proven by expert card counters in the game of 21. But what really happens to most of these people is that they don't do the work to become expert card counters. When they go into the real casino they make mistakes. In that case there is a huge difference.


TurboGenius is still claiming that he beats the casinos with the use of hot numbers and that he does that because of mathematics. He even just made that claim today. A bunch of us set out to master his method based on breadcrumbs and clues he left online and in private conversations he had with others. I already proved I could make a rear-end of myself trying it. The only evidence of validation he could give me at this point would be his gambling winning tax return. He could somehow disclose it as proof without giving out SS numbers I suppose. It would be fascinating if he really did it. But he has been a system player for more than 13 years. He may actually believe he did it on paper. They call it confirmation bias. It's a very common mistake made by educated researchers.


If anyone that has a bet selection method that works well for them in real world practice settings, that person must also know that once they put money on the line that they could lose, they will have to face their own ability to handle any inevitable losses along the way. The system player, if they stick to the system, takes decision making out of the process. But even that is very hard to do. A very good card counter can still hit a random bad streak even though they have followed the method perfectly. That is why casinos encourage card counters to try and go for it. The casinos have made ten times as much off the wannabee card counters as they would have if the casino had just banned all of them. These amateur players almost always get taken out by their weak bankrolls. And it's real easy to find the good players and just ban them instead. So there are two kinds of online players and there are two kinds of real casino players in my opinion. There are no mindless system players that the casinos need to look out for. They do have to watch out for defective wheels though. And they still need to watch out for cheaters.

Actually saying, there are thsoe that stay on-line without going or very limited attempt at the real world translation of their on-line pre-programmed event they describe in detail within the forums and the real world gambler that actaully does whatever he says, no matter if that is winning or losing. 

For sake of explanation again, I put you into the latter 'world'.  I put some others (lots) into the first.  kind of like my kids, watch the movie 'The Black Panther', go out and buy them masks, claws and other movie stuff they pretend and play.  They go into the real world with it--yes.  But that does not make them, 'The Balck Panther' or whatever they pretend to be.  It allows them to act out and explore and expand their imaginations. 

So there are two worlds no?  The on-line adventure and the real casino world of gambling. 

And yes, if you do beat something on-line does that mean it will translate into the real casino world for an actaul pay-off repeatedly?  Etc.

Mark, Would you not agree that there are two separate worlds?  The on-line adventure to 'beat-the-casino- on paper and the real gambling world at the casinos?

The same as reading and watching a video about say, using a lawnmower and then actaully doing it??