Most players are not focused on the results as they are presenting themselves.  They are focused on their attempt to predict and have the results conform to their expectations, which is really regressing away from the mean and influential observations misinterpreted.  This is what the casino, the hosts, the management of the properties count on.  The player can't stay away from bad bets.  That is the exact and only reason the pens, the scorecards, the multi-thousand dollar scoreboards are bought and installed by the casino for your eyes.  They influence and they control you, once you learn that and use it to your advantage, you will become a more profitable player.

Many ask me, PM and otherwise, what is the single thing "I" really need to remember or do to help me win @ the casino.  IMO, there it is.

I really thought it was the Lakers.  LOL.  I already found the monkey and smacked him around a bit!  Guess I was thinking about the opposite end of sports wagering on the receiving side.  I will leave this area of wagering to WeWinn and the experts. 

Quote from: Wewin2222 on April 18, 2017, 11:51:09 PM
Utah Jazz +6.5 vs the LA Clippers not the LA Lakers. I haven't followed basketball much this year and don't have an opinion. Good luck! I hope you and the head monkey are right on this one.

Wewin2222

Yes the Clippers, don't know why I wrote Lakers, Ted-----you want $250 on this???  I am putting $750 for myself, up to you?

I heard through he grapevine that the Utah Jazz will win tonight.

Special, systemic-analyzed-researched and besides, the head monkey guarantees the win!

Quote from: Wewin2222 on April 18, 2017, 12:18:35 AM
System Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +147 or 1,000 wins 1,470.

Anytime you wager against the home team in baseball you're taking a chance. My system loves the Arizona Diamondbacks to beat the home team LA Dodgers tonight. This is certainly a risk but such as gambling. If you want to take a gamble tonight you can win 147.00 for every 100.00 wagered.

Wewin2222

Good job you got one!  Go wager it all and make some real money, the sports books are waiting.

Quote from: Wewin2222 on April 17, 2017, 08:21:12 PM
System Pick: Chicago Cubs -185 or 1,850 wins 1,000.

Chicago Cubs are a big favorite to win at home against the Milwaukee Brewers. Laying 185 to make a 100 is kind of steep, however they should get the job done. I've learned that nothing is a sure thing but this is a solid wager and worth the risk if you have the cash!!

Wewin2222

You have not been doing to well lately huh?  Sorry, but sports wagering is tough for the player, great for the sports books!  It is a fantastic business if you can handle the legal end of it.  Looks like to me the Brewers smoked the cubs!  Ouch.

Randomness, Equality, Equaling Out--Bias

Whatever you want to call it or label it.  Take 80 + - hands in a shoe of baccarat and without something of random events from happening, there would be either all Bankers all Players or a perfect alternating chop-chop of Banker then Player for the entire shoe.  I have played the game of baccarat for well over 35 years and the only thing I ever saw that even came close was 3 shoes of thousands and thousands and thousands of shoes.  One shoe had the entire shoe of Banker-Player chop-chop alternating hands with some ties in it, from start to finish.  The other shoe had all doubles in it from start to finish except one 3 which I think was 3 Bankers in a row.  The last one was a shoe without ties in it, no ties not even one, which was only good for those of us who don't wager for the tie.  But those are the only 3 shoes with the whole shoe being something  with no random acts so to speak that I ever saw.  But, there certainly is varying types of randomness with each shoe of baccarat and at most times, the randomness throws almost every player off their desired result.  That is the problem. 

This is where the largest part of the wagering aspect of 'technical and strategy' comes into play.  With agreement or without agreement.  Second to none.   Randomness either makes it easy or makes it harder, depending on what you need to match your wagering plan and decisions. 

While anything is possible in a shoe of baccarat the majority of times there are spikes with anywhere up to an abundance or a lack of clear patterns and trends  for sake of having to give a label to describe what I am talking about referring to such results as Bankers and Players, Singles, Doubles, 1's, 2's and 3's, Naturals that cut or stick, Ties that cut or stick, etc., etc., and so on.   With my comment, anything is possible , possible does not mean equaling or evening out, it does not mean producing something, it just means anything and everything  with no rhyme or reasoning or continuing or a set discontinuance of a pattern or trend, or any event that you can follow or go against-doesn't matter, whatever you want to term it. 

Many play the catch up game  throughout the shoe-meaning, one side is behind a greater amount and, I am going to wager for the inferior side to catch up.  Works and does not work, just about 50-50% of the times in reality.  Especially, when the inferior side starts to catch up and then fails while you got so confident and so consumed in progressions and wagering on that hope you got smacked once again and probably a larger loss than what put you in the position to start that kind of wagering. 

The problem in baccarat is that there is so many short term deviations, you cannot apply what you interpreted just happened in the past several hands into the current series or the next series of what will actually be produced as winning hands.  And when you fall into that rut, your aggravation and frustration levels become huge.  Then your mind frame, concentration and thoughts are negatively affected without your conscious knowledge.   Then you miss the easy or easier or ever so prevalent (whatever you want to label it) coincidences that formed and all your wagers were on something completely opposite because you were stuck in some cloud and just plain frustrated to the point of being blind.  Your aggravation and frustration levels are so high you are a danger to yourself and your bankroll/buy-in.  So the really good sections with repeating small trends that you would have probably wagered on and caught, were not so good to you and you lost money. 

The problem is this.  Many players attempt to calculate or predict the randomness.  So many systems or bet placement methods and plans, will sell you their holy-grail attempt at some pre-planned amount of wagers, usually with a negative progression (just in the rare case you lose, LOL) that counts on the inferior side quickly catching up to the side that dominated.  The real downside to that, is the way the inferior side does catch up and how often the strikes are that will add positive wins to the inferior side, etc. 

Random and bias most certainly have maximums or an unwritten type of limit, is the best way to describe it.  You will not have 50 straight Bankers, followed by 30 straight Players.  Can it happen, possibility-but the odds would probability be something like 1:4,000,000 shoes or something like that.  Here is the guts of it.  Take all the statistical numbers you want from say 10,000 hands or a 100,000 shoes, whatever.  Apply the mean averaged results, meaning dividing it down to one shoe of 80 hands or so.  In fact, apply them to 3 or 5 shoes if you feel better, whatever amount of shoes you are sitting down to play that is.  What those winning hands produce for the small series of 3-5or 7 shoes you play cannot be reproduced with the stats that you ran on all your sampling.  That is why systems and bet placement methods do not prevail on any type of consistent basis.

A hot streak of Bankers or Players a long series of alternating chops or a shoe where every single natural cuts to the opposite side or any one of 10 other types of trends or events.  It will happen the same amount of times as the exact opposite happening.  Be it in the same shoe or one shoe compared to another shoe later in the evening.  Also, everything else with a touch of each one will also occur in between the shoe that produces the consistent trend and the shoe that has the complete opposite that occurred.  Random or bias happens, there is no way to stop it and as well you complicate your wagering enormously when you try to factor it in.  When you do that your thought process will become clouded and something that you do not want to creep up on you will normally set in and that is called aggravation and frustration.  The best wins and the clearest shoes I have experienced, were those played with no or little to none of both, both aggravation and frustration.  Been there and experienced it, many times.

Randomness and bias produces coincidences and that is where the highest majority of all baccarat players go astray.  Coincidences can be exploited as if they were predictable, even though they are mathematically NEVER predictable.  And that my friend is the casinos greatest friend and the players worst nightmare.

Open your mind and forget mathematical strategy and computer analysis.  It really does not apply to the few shoes you will be playing at the casino. 

Quote from: Wewin2222 on April 17, 2017, 03:00:40 PM
System was wrong on this one, it was good wager and worth the risk even though it lost. I win more than I lose because I take calculated risk. The thing I like about wagering on sports is I have a 50/50 chance coming out of the gate and anything I do to improve those odds can only help my chances. Good Day Everyone!!

Wewin2222

Reference 50/50 and 'out of the gate'.  I wagered very extensively on sports as well as being involved in offering wagers on sports, a sports book for all virtual discussion. If I could have taking a mix of 'gut picks through liking the team' and also 'what the stats say', I would have been a millionaire wagering, LOL.  But it doesn't work out that way.

There is a reason that sports book and bookies 'lay-off' a certain amount of their incoming liability with off-setting wagers of their own.  Don't forget that. 

Any scoured picks for today to profit on?  Curious.

I am from NYC and from the Bronx, love the Yankees, those Flushing Queens 'bent wristed' Mets suck huh???  Top of the 9th didn't look good for your $1k, oh well, maybe you should have scoured a bit longer.  Good nite.

Is this part of a system or from your gut?

Funny as heck how in business and other 'non-gambling' areas, how most of us tend to desire to learn-profit and get some real knowledge and apply it from others.  Whether that is from attending courses, training or technical get-togethers with others.  But in gambling the majority of us and I mean the upper 90 percentile, IMO, will not listen to and whole heartedly take the advise and reasoning with true open-minded thought process of what another is saying---even when they ask!!!  They rather suffer tremendously than actually apply something that another has really and honestly told them and is not fallacy or wishful thinking, while that other person has been down that proverbial road.

Excellent job!

All I can say, is I have always flown Delta and always will.  Period.

It will all blow over and no one will even talk about planes again until here is a crash or something, LOL.

Many do not, few do.  IMO, it takes a good 20 years of playing.  I do not see how a recently introduced player to the game of baccarat can truly appreciate the volatility, the production and the true definitive nature of the paths this game will produce. 

There are 5 true aspects of the game that will govern how well or how bad you do.  I am leaving out all of the personal and outside things that may govern/control/influence you.  So, there are really the 5 areas as I outline here:

1)  Your bankroll or buy-in;
2)  Discipline and patience;
3)  Time;
4)  Your wager and wager beliefs;
5)  Exit strategy adhering to Money Management.

If you came on to this board searching for a system, meaning a mechanical system of set wagers that will prevail and you will profit, sorry--there is none.  If you really think there is such a thing, just Google 'systems baccarat gambling', etc., and send some cash and buy some, follow them and then please come back after several months and honestly report to us.  Now onward.


You can either play 1 shoe or 3 shoes and you can either put yourself in the short game or long game, etc.  The short game is the one I play which is the 'per session', whereas-the ones I played last week-last month or last year, I know nothing about and forget all wins or losses.  Or, you can most certainly play the long game of 50 or 100 or 250 shoes, 3 months or 6 months or 1 year, etc., and so on.  Either way, set a goal which is your exit strategy if you win or lose.  I am totally against a loss limit per session as I believe it is clearer and more advantageous to most all players to risk without fear or worry what is sitting in front of them for their ammunition.  I don't believe in bankrolls with shares per sessions.  All everyone I every known that had bankrolls and building and building on them, at one point was convinced they could break the casino and lost it all.  I know in my heart, the per session and per buy-in is the best way to go overall.  As far as wins and losses building, they really mean nothing except undo pressure and false conceptions of power, prior losing or winning that is.

Discipline and patience.  I have talked and written about these within my Blogs and on the board.  There is enough info here for those of you that, truly want to learn a base here.  If you play every hand or nearly every hand, shoe after shoe after shoe, you will not come out a winner many times.  If you do win it will only be the false fuel, that will be your downfall to an exhausted buy-in, bank roll or gambling funds, whatever you label your money with you or in reserve. 

Time.  Is your enemy in a casino.  Learn it and be conscious of it.  Don't always think there is the magical shoe from haven coming for you.  Play what is there and play it well and if you do win, if you apply my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, you cannot ever give back all the winning, never.

Your wager and you wager beliefs.  Anything and everything can work.  However, as I stated about mechanical systems above stands true and to the tallest order ever.  But nothing can repeatedly hold up, it is utterly impossible.

Exit strategy adhering to money management.  I stated about and it is easier than anything on the internet or what most believe.  My 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd. You cannot say, one more shoe and one more shoe.  You will give it all back and then start on your buy-in, etc.  If you can only remember the old school proverbial saying, "It is not 'if' it will happen, it is 'when' it will happen".

We all have a different outlook.  Some of us risk $300.00 to double it and walk away happier than a pig rolling around in poo-poo, religiously each and every time.  Yet others, will risk thousands or tens of thousands for the other end of the rainbow, 'life changing payoffs'.  While, many of us are in-between those two as well. 

There are 3 basic challenges that will block you and if you are smart enough, have guts enough, risk enough, be lucky enough, so on and so forth--you can 'at times' get around them:

1)  Length of time you play a session;
2)  Your buy-in or Bank Roll;
3)  Game mathematics.

I don't really need to say anything more about #'s 1 and 2. 

The last one, game mathematics', most of us do not know anything about and those that do, it generally will not predict or give them a mechanical method to wager and win with repetitiveness to prove it a 'system', therefore all the authors do is either exaggerate, lie, believe in false hoods, win and then lose the winnings and their own funds chasing what they won on their system, or loser's trying to reclaim their funds by marketing a false system that works haphazardly. 

All you really have to understand about 'house edge' is, it is real and there.  Period.  Forget the numbers and forget the statistics of it.  If you can only remember that the casino is absolutely guaranteed a payoff which amounts to a fixed percentage of your money going across their tables, then you are on the right track.  Seriously, that is all you need to know.  You cannot control it except with time, the time you are there gambling, that is all.  It doesn't not mean you will go broke if you play 100 hands at XYZ $ wager or anything of the like.  It means, the casino will eventually take all your buy-in, your bank roll, your funds, won or not.  It does not matter and the harder your head and the less experience you have, the more you will lose and the harder you will fall. 

People say all the time, "Gambling is extremely dangerous".  No it is not.  It is the players that are dangerous.  Gambling is no different than sky diving, scuba diving, auto or motorcycle racing, street vending in rough neighborhoods, etc., etc.  No different!  The difference is the players, the people.  People get that win money or a chance to win it, and they go crazy--they lose all good thoughts, skill and regime that gives them a shot and a decent chance at it.  I see it all the time and to me it is viable and tangible, to most it is not and it is only story or fairy tale.  I said it, I laid it out and it is 100% reality.

I read a technical book on gambling a long time ago.  There was lots and lots of numbers, figures and statistics in it.  Probably all true.  Actually probability spot-on.  So what?  Seriously, what do numbers have to do with the casino hold, the house advantage, the winners and the losers of the casino, etc., etc.?  Can the results of those tell you when and if a 14 Player or Banker streak will come out or a shoe that is 80% chop-chop or doubles and so on?  No.  It can not.  The casino's numbers are derived from months and months and years of business.  The same with statistics of the game, derived from tens of thousands of shoes, hundreds of thousands and millions of shoes, nothing to do with the little amount that will be produced when you actually play.  Those 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 shoes cannot be represented of the statistical numbers of the winners or losers or any subject matter, none.

So, back to the book.  I remember years later now and all the time in the middle.  Here it goes, I will attempt to explain it clearly and quickly.  Picture a large wheel, the size of a roulette wheel--only much larger.  Now hang that vertical from the ceiling.  It is hanging behind you as you play baccarat in any and all casinos, lowered each time you play--right behind you.  The wheel is your funds of your buy-in.  Forget your bank roll unless you play each time with your entire bankroll, but make the wheel anything you want, in my case it is always my buy-in.  On the top and directly across from that, on the bottom are the words, Win-Lose.  One on top and one the bottom.  On the sides are the words, Neutral-Rough.  One on each side.  The more you play, the harder you push, the faster the wheel will turn.  At one edge of the wheel there is a razor blade so sharp and it will never go dull.  The faster and harder you play the faster the wheel spins and makes contact with the razor.  The slower and more methodical you play, the slower the wheel spins.   

The operation of the razor against the wheel cannot be changed, it is the exact same as aging, making love, racing an auto, scuba diving, etc., etc.  You will crash, run out of fuel, run out of air, run out of time or just plain energy, and so on.  You will never ever play and follow the house edge of the + or - right at 1.0% as the stats say with baccarat.  And as far as breaking even due to variance, that is not really a function you can follow because you can not wager the amount of hands you will need for that to finish in reality due to the mathematical principals of the game to actually surface in statistical form. 

In finishing this up I will add the following.  Players doom themselves by their extremely uncontrollable impulsive nature of greed and fear.  Both, not one.  That is the problem IMO.  Then the players play rational styles and win and that only contributes to their upcoming demise because they play so hard and so aggressive they kill their chances to win.  And why is this?  Go back to my wheel explanation and all those casino house numbers and other actual and real statistics are hooked up to that razor scrapping away at the wheel hanging behind you.  Yes they are, no you cannot stop them, the wheel will turn and turn.

So when I say 'X,Y or Z' or you hear that proverbial saying, what does it mean.  Well to me it means, can I get 'X' before I lose 'Y' or will Z happen.

In closing I will give my summation of the actual downfall.  With baccarat, players concentrate way too much on attempting to do the impossible with the prediction of the future and forget to react to the past as only dangerous thoughts.  Then they either wager only on specific outcomes or believe that others cannot appear, either way, it all blows up in their face because the shoe will produce both events.  Then when you apply the actual mathematics and statistics to the game, (hence the score board, the pen, the paper is encouraged and provided so conveniently for you to utilize) it really doesn't matter and cannot help you with accuracy because the shoe will not produce wins that is consistent with your confidence level based upon that hard math of statistics you employed and you will lose every dollar of your buy-in and/or bank roll.