Didn't even follow it, busy drafting a menu for my new business I am buying here shortly.  Watching 'The Pope of Greenwich Village"!  Classic.  Checking in on the board and just finished a synopsis of New Years Eve at the casino in my blog. 

I just felt compelled to give you my point of view from my experience on the 'Lamb Vs. The Lion'. 

30-3!  Classic by the books!  That entices so many to wager with the +3 or +4 depending on who was giving what.  This stuff never changes, really.

Quote from: Albalaha on December 30, 2016, 11:26:17 PM
Buddy, I have taught people of your age and experience from all the continents of the world. I have played a lot in real and live casinos but can not play daily there as they are far from me and I have my profession to carry as well. I play in real casinos in long stretched trips and published many of the trip reports since last 8 years on Victor's and many other forums. Now I feel that instead of wasting my time in travelling, I can play online with my pace and comfort. I believe a fair RNG is as good as a real wheel(I primarily play roulette and seldom baccarat be it real casino or online) as a roulette wheel and ball do serve as mechanical RNG. If someone says online gambling is not real it is comparable to say that an e-mail/sms is not a real mail and I will handwrite a mail, buy tickets for that and put that in a post box and wait for that to be delivered safely and read.
                           What people are missing here badly is to understand the reality of a random game. Poor understanding of how randomness works and how house advantage slowly kills us, there is no room for becoming an informed player. A player can neither control the random good and bad times, nor can reduce the house edge. It could still be possible to win a net profit with correct money management approach.. Sadly people know of the Archaic MMs only and they are meant to plunder players even faster. Those ill made progressions/MMs are pretty silly as they are meant for short sessions where one can get very hostile sessions too and that will put things upside down for any progression player and cause irreparable losses.
             Seeing trends and patterns in a purely random game is pathetic and willingly or unwillingly their advocates are manufacturing a new set of problem gamblers. See: https://www.problemgambling.ca/EN/ResourcesForProfessionals/Pages/WhyWeSeePatternsinSequencesofRandomEvents.aspx

You cite basically elementary research and believes by academic 'professionals' working for some kind of free-grant money in most all cases.  You 'discovery' has nothing to do with a baccarat shoe in a live casino.  IMO, you are confusing people for your own agenda. 

If you want to believe your 'great research find' so be it.  However, baccarat is not a game of great difficulty if one is comfortable with it and has the vision to play along with the shoe.  It is tons easier than black jack and other games where a gambler must beat the house. 

Serious money is won in short term.  Doesn't matter the shoe's stats, evening out, catching up, finishing ahead, etc., etc., and so on. 

There is a new bred of player, more so than the past years, now those are still short-term, however they sit there and pretend to play for the 'non strike' short-term. 

Short-term is unique to each of us for the 'how many' definition, but FYI, I classify it as a small section here and there within the shoe, 1 or 2 shoes max for the session. 

Also, what I have noticed the past several years, say in the past 5 to 8 years---is the younger players (defiantly under 40 years old) with a couple-few years experience, they suddenly became self-proclaimed experts with all their long-term statics, etc., etc.  A fact in the places I frequent anyways.

Here is the explanation:

http://heavy.com/sports/2017/01/iowa-florida-outback-bowl-point-spread-odds-point-total-over-under-vegas-expert-prediction-sports-betting/

I am privy to some info on a local level, but as always, anything can change.

I used to be heavy into college and NFL from the late 90's to 2005-ish or so.  Stopped, too time consuming. 

If I was going to wager this game, I would take Florida, the bookies are not unintelligent and they do it the majority of the times to steer bettors to their advantage of course.

There is an old saying from the bookies, meaning--those from Staten Island coming into New Jersey, collecting on Tuesdays and paying out on Thursdays.  If you don't know what I am referring to, skip it, anyway they used to hype games by saying, "it's a lamb standing in front of a lion-don't let it get by you".  LOL, such memories.

Just felt some weird urge to comment on this one, wager with your gut, as always.

For some it is already here, but for us here in the USA it is about 4.5 hours away NYC-East Coast and 7.5 hours away California-West Coast time.  Once again, best of everything to better yourself and your families time on earth in 2017 and an extra dose of good luck and karma to all! 

Thanks.  Sure, I have argued with some in the past and to the point I would erase some of the posts if I thought it was a down-side for the forum.  Out of all the forums, although this is a bit smaller than most of them, I have enjoyed and learned more here than the others.  The others are too consumerish/amateurish by far.  Sure there are arguments over on them as well, but the level of smarts is 100 levels to the south of this one. 

Maybe my fault is I take things to the max and try too hard to convince others of my believes.  However, most of mine, like in the upper 90 percentile are from my actual experience in casinos.  I do not play on line, never.  I have lots of family members in the casino industry and I don't gamble for a living, I have a career which is soon to change, non casino of course.

I use 'pun' at times on the board and am a bit factitious at times.  Why?  Just me.  I am an Italian (mostly) from NYC and although I might high-five someone when we interface, I have no problem with anyone at anytime saying what they want.  If it got erased in the past, I thought it was best for the board and to 'keep the peace' for a quick explanation.  As far as insults and cussing, I try my best to describe something and cuss at the situation or a cause, not the person I am confronting.  I am the same on this board as I am in real life. 

Thanks, Vic and others.  It's all good.   

I have nothing against anyone on this board on a professional level, personal does not matter. 

Was not going to answer but since Gizmo got re-involved and shedding some light on the worthless articles written, etc.

I don't want other readers not familiar with this board or those counting on 'word typed', etc., please understand what Gizmo wrote.  Many writers of articles in trade journals and other publications are funded by 'grant' money from somewhere and they justify their haphazard research with small numbers and some poorly researched and written article.  Sure 100 people surveyed at random and some conclusive decision is reached for whatever subject/topic.  LOL.

Also, please look at the source, even on here--this board, as to their background and where their info/data comes from.  A third world country, the internet at random and their evaluation of it?  That is what I am trying to get across, open your eyes when you read something.

I was in the truck repair garage business for some time.  Pick up some trade magazine and some farming community technical/community college shop class instructor writes some article and gathers all his info from his own community, students and the local trucks coming into the shop class for repair.  All fine and good.  But does that article and his local research apply to the trucks running up in the artic or across the nation's highway's under a complete different set of maintenance and driving conditions, etc.?  Get my point.

Quote from: Albalaha on December 30, 2016, 01:07:20 PM
          If you gamble in the belief of being lucky, sadly you can not be lucky in the long run. http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400636/Long-run-in-gambling#.WGagRFN97IU
Lol. there can still be both probabilities of P and B in the next hand and a chance of getting PPBB is as much after this as of BBBB or BPBP or any of the combinations possible. Patterns are illusions only. You can not extract from  emerging patterns in the long run and will lose ultimately. This is extreme ignorance only and nothing else.

"Gamblers are more impulsive and 'see patterns' where there are none." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150429100937.htm

Seriously................I have played this game for the better part of 35 years plus. 

Hell with the long run, we can get killed by a drunk driving on the way home tonight or tomorrow or in 10 years from now, etc.

No one knows what the long run is anyways, different for each of us in reality.

Illusions only.  Okay, never ever again.  Same as I saw at the Bellagio during Asian New Year in 2015.  15 plus blacks in a row on the roulette table.  All the money that was constantly lost, each and every hand by people wagering for the Red cause it was due to come out.  Hundreds of thousands of dollars.  There was one or two little jerk gamblers as everyone called them wagering a couple green chips or one black chip each time on Black.  They both made about $1,000.00 each and then cashed out and left happy.  Numerous people cited, 'luck, pure luck with those two'.  LOL.

I had some respect for you but it all went out the door a minute ago.  Seriously. 

One very last thing and like I said, never again.  I, would wager on certain parts of what the shoe is producing strongly, not continuously and not repeatedly for 15 or 30 or the next 60 or 120 hands as a pre-set strategy to capitalize 'bet select' on an upcoming pattern/trend I predict will be coming out. You twisted and took my words and had fun with them, all good!

Like Gizmo referred to, each and every time I am playing and see the 'illusion' of a pattern/trend or whatever it is, I will rename it and warn each and every player there to steer clear of the illusion in front of us!!!!

At this point I believe I am right, you rarely or never have played in a live real casino. 

So, I will take my extreme ignorance and move on from this point.   

Quote from: Gizmotron on December 30, 2016, 12:22:41 PM

OK, nobody knows anything because there is no evidence showing context to go on.


What do you do with this: BBBB PPPP BBBB PPPP BBBB PPPP BBBB PPPP BBBB PPPP


Now that was a perfect example of the global effect but even a neophyte gambler can figure this out if it were just a little less than perfect. Sometimes there is context. I recommend that you ignore this when it stairs you in the face. Just keep mumbling the mantra 5% hopelessness.

Same..................

Sad things about what some say like Albalaha, is in so many words, don't recognize anything.  Anything, is just a coincidence according to them.  But they contradict themselves to the max here. Because if the shoe was producing 1 Player and then 5 Bankers and then 1 Player again and 5 more Bankers and then 1 Player and then 6 more Bankers, etc., and I wagered on the multiple Bankers each time and only lost the one wager when it fell off and went to the 1 Player, I would still have been guessing.  It is always a guess if someone needs to label the winning decision but when I play I am not trying to be correct in picking out a pattern or trend or a certain order of winning hands at such and such a point in the shoe. I am trying to be on the correct side that prevails as the shoe is producing those hands.  And the easiest and most successful way to do that, is to be in some kind of section/cluster to group of hands that the shoe is producing.   

However, I can always shut it down and not 'wager with what the shoe is most certainly producing'.  Those that wager for the cut or whatever it is, even a sheer guess to the opposite side, when the shoe produces those 14 in a row or those 5 Bankers and then 5 Players and then those 5 Bankers again and then those 5 Players again, etc., I find it relatively easy to wager with the shoe rather than against it.  The list is long, when the shoe is producing 8 or 12 or 15 sheer chop-chop or perhaps it is producing a series of 8 or 14 doubles or whatever.  Or perhaps it is 1 Bankers and then multiple repeating Players for say  something like, B-PPPP-BPPPPPPPP-B-PPP-B-PPPPP-B-PP and so on.  My stomach loves it when I only lose that 'last wager' as it falls off whatever it was.

I said it before and I will say it again.  I rather wager with the shoe than against it for the one unit win after numerous Martingales', etc. 

Quote from: 21 Aces on December 28, 2016, 07:42:11 PM

Bet selection is critically important, but even the best of the best can only be so good.

Money management is crucial for locking in win and winning back after rough streaks.

Bet selection  is the most important for getting somewhere in a live casino table game.

As far as money management, pretty much the overall truth.  Most casino players don't possess it or they do not employ it. 

No matter what you choose to use, use something.  Use something that will allow you to wager with your win money and walk with a certain amount of the won money if you did win. 

If I remember, you play on line and do not have access to a live casino?  Is that correct or am I mistaken? 

Go ahead and believe what you say. 

Thanks and hope your new year is of course lucky and may you sheer guess correct each and every time because there is no other way................................

I am not that naïve to say a guess is clustering on a BBBB. 

I am actually referring to something more tangible.  I know I wrote about this stuff somewhere here on the board. 

Clustering and Sections is gold in baccarat.  However, there are numerous factors that go into the identification of such a cluster or section that could be picked for the gold.

As far as the statement, 'when you know it is too late'.  I agree for those new to the game or those that wait too long. 

Quote from: Albalaha on December 30, 2016, 10:58:25 AM

Identifying trends or patterns or any other kind of fanciful guessing doesn't work in a short playable sessions.

I am not talking of the so called "advantage gamblers".

I think you are absolutely dead wrong, 1,000% concerning this.  Although you can say it both ways, meaning-one cannot identify anything 'before hand' or, one cannot identify when it is happening.

If you are merely saying, one cannot identify when it is going to happen, you are correct--of course.  However, in reality and in live casino play, players all the time can and do, identify a cluster or section or 'short playable' that will produce winner after winner.  I do it all the time.  But cannot say because of XYZ---ABC will happen and it will happen between hands 20 to 35 or whatever number. 

As far as a section with numerous hands that are either weak, strong, repeating trend or pattern, numbers strong or weak, cutting, etc., etc., etc., it is still the greatest and easiest way to capitalize on a cluster/section, etc., of baccarat.

Anyway, as far as baccarat, I have no idea about Roulette or anything else. 

To each and every one of you, although some of us truly know what to do at a casino table and others, well---let's just say need some guidance.  As far as greetings and wishes, here is all you need for this weekend..........................easy enough just to get it on with a click of your mouse.............




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcBLJJBNLiM

The Table was Full!.........................................12/28/16

The players were anxious but they took a breath and stood up and stretched.......

Alrelax just brought them back whole again......

Piggy-backing off of Alrelax's wagering decisions without a doubt!

What it was, was Alrelax's hyper-prepared casino personality and mind frame.....

Al stands up and says, "not a problem, lets continue our dark decent into madness here"....

And with that statement, the other players clapped and Alrelax took a bow.....

A few were intimidated by him, but they all respected his brain, considering that he saved their rear-ends plenty of times--right there at that same darn bac table.

Al has contingency plans for everything.....

And now it was the end of 2016.....

Al yells out....."Deal the cards---we are ready---hands down---take it to the Cashier's Cage"!