Some people

Quote from: Blue_Angel on June 14, 2017, 07:44:21 PM
''Angelonis'', this one has my name on it! (literally) 

http://angelonis.com/home/2792334

Quote from: BELLA on May 07, 2017, 04:48:18 PM
I don't use your euros over here. I'm in Atlantic City New Jersey I use live online dealers at Golden Nugget minimum bet $1. After I tweaked the system and only increase the net after every 3rd spin your bankroll you need is about it a thousand. And if you don't have access to $1,000 bankroll you should not be in the casino. This is how we roll in New Jersey, instead of condemning the system  try playing it. Not RNG. Just live wheel.
Spudik if you need a loan I know a guy.

I miss the Knife and Fork Inn, White House, Angelonis, Tony's Baltimore and of course my late night, early AM hangout at the Dunkin D over on Atlantic Avneue

Here is

(mightdo

bottom line is it works sometimes sometimes it doesn't when it doesn't the author has said you have to stop and manage your money there's nothing that's guaranteed and basically any wager that is wagered is wagered at the Players risk and expense and therefore if it does work it's the credit of the author that he copied it from and if it doesn't the player either play too long or didn't know how to use it or changed it up according to the person that started all this conversation with claims of authoring best selling books etc.

So it's an on again off again type of thing and by the way for whatever it's worth I will publicly state here in this thread I don't think he's a hundred percent truthful in my opinion and I don't see the validity of his so-called system that he claims consistently prevails and I believe the only asset is to himself in peddling a book or two.

Writing a book that is strictly self published does not make anyone an expert or a successful anything at something.  Also look at the reviews on his other books IMO they are absolutely embarrassing!!!

Recognition, Identifying & Intuition (4 of 10 in a Series)  

           
                                      Recognition, Identifying & Intuition


They all go hand-in-hand.  In fact so many things in the game of baccarat does.  But the problem is, so many only believe and play for a set-mechanical wagering type of betting pattern.  They do believe that, the game will convert to and follow what they are planning, not the other way around. 

Recognition

Probably for most a real tuff thing, IMO a hard thing in this simple yet so complicated game is the recognition factor a player must have and deal with to be the least bit successful.  Recognition covers several areas, moving your subconscious to your conscious side of your mind and actually a steady reminder of the numerous things I brought up in other threads/posts about your subconscious mind effecting your decision making.  Recognition is also being able to control your gambling, especially if you are winning or losing.  Winning, actually offers you very little reason to stop playing.  Usually you will convince yourself that it is all your skill and you are on the way to winning back everything you lost or if that is not the case, you are telling yourself you are going to win so much---you will have a record win.  On the negative side, players tell themselves that there is really no reason to stop playing if you have lost, if you do then there is really no way to recover the funds you spent. 

Identifying

Unlike recognition that is generally trying to trim up your losses or walk with winnings and don't get yourself lost within casino fairyland, etc., identifying will help you with your wagering style.  The main thing about baccarat, no matter if authors spell it out or not is the patterns/trends/events (whatever each of us labels it) as the main item(s) to look for in this game.  Of course they all keep continually changing, coming and going, waiting and exposing themselves, hiding for some time and then open for the taking, etc.  Identify the event, no matter if it is weak or strong in nature and wager according.  Hit it hard, pounce on it and then get into your money management division protocol so you can capitalize on the win money while reserving your buy-in for other changes or shoes. 

You have to identify the event, no matter if it is a streak/run-chop- see saws, etc., etc.  Shoes have patterns/trends/events that do develop and the characteristics will surface.  One way or another, the aura, the point values, the events, and other items will forge a characteristic of some type and that is what you need to identify and then capitalize on.  The shoe will present itself with events that either play into your psych and you get all flustered and aggravated trying to conform a pre-set mechanical bet placement method that will not match up with it, or you see what is clearly happening and you merge your wagering pursuits with the emerging hands and you controlled your greed, outlook and optimism.   

Intuition

The hardest out of the 3 here is by far intuition.  Many will say it comes with years of experience, trial and error, losses and difficult times gambling.  I think they are correct.  Pretty much the same in most sports to a certain degree.  If you don't know the down side, how can you be aware of the upside?  If you don't lose, how can you truly appreciate a win?  Etc, etc.

I can't see and I don't think a teacher is a professor, a seminar instructor, a tutor, etc., can teach, intuition.   Especially in gambling.  Why?  Many reasons, but the main one being what I have said in other posts.  That is, the non-conformance of the 3 or 5 or 7 baccarat shoes you sit down to play with the overall averages and the data results of all the statistician's, computers and baccarat experts here and elsewhere.  Those shoes in front of you at 1:10 AM tonight are not going to be the result(s) of Joe Schmo's 100,000 shoes or Grandma Kitty's 6 time 10,000 shoes findings, period! 

You are going to have to suffer through years of playing, whether profitable or not, before you actually have intuition.  A lot of time playing is the bottom line.  No magical book to read, no magical internet computer training course, no magical jade necklace to obtain.  Some of us will get it and some of us will not.  Some will get it sooner and others will take a very very long time. 

But I think very strongly that the areas of Recognition, Identifying and Intuition are always working and clicking in your head, whether you are conscious of them or not. 

Illusions-Perceptions-Influences & Frame-of-Minds (3 of 10 in a Series)
           
                            Illusions--Perceptions--Influences--Frame of Mind
All four have a lot to do with playing and gambling at Baccarat.  More than what many realize.  Well here are a few thinkable's for each.  Not a comprehensive list, just a few descriptions for the areas I think are prevalent and popular about the baccarat players.

Illusions:   What the playing sees and is chasing.  Thinking he can avoid all the pitfalls that are the casinos safeguards for offering this game, etc.  The players interpretation of what the shoes can and will produce.  The players false ideas of what is due to him and how he will capitalize on those.

Perceptions:  What the player genuinely believes when he plays the game.  How the player sees winning and losing and his own ability to combat the downside losing and of course, as well as the upside--his own planned eventual win.  The players value and conscious thought of negative events that can hamper his ability to properly play well.

Influences:  Other players.  People hanging with the player.  Other friends and acquaintances the player knows and what they claimed they achieved playing.  The players knowledge of the game and how he interprets statements from the dealers and other casino personnel directly involved with the game.  Positive and Negative experiences from friends and family with casino play.

Frame-of-Mind:  The actual state of mind the player is in and how he allows it to reflect onto his gaming decisions and style.  The players interpretation of others experiences and his placement of himself within those same events.  The players ability to concentrate and disallow all negativity and withhold all positive relations while gaming would be ideal but so many so often will deviate at that and cost themselves money. 

Although there is mostly intangible things here, some of them are tangible because they are the most governing thing to our attitudes and personalities that make up the above 4 areas which a good Bac player would have moved from his traditional unconscious to conscious departments of his operating cycle. 


"Given the frame of mind of the vast majority of Bac players"... By; AsymBacGuy.

I wrote something a while back and found it in my notes this morning.  It went like this, Creating an image that doesn't reveal itself in factual relevance.

The frame-of-mind of the majority of Bac players would be a lifetime of work for any psych professor for sure.  However, those frame-of-minds are present and very much an item at most Bac tables.  They are very illusionary, influential and able to convey those held thoughts and actions of the player unto others sometimes they produce good outcomes and can just easily produce bad ones.  It is the proverbial double edged sword for sake of a longer explanation.   

Let me see another one.  Here, if you do and follow those I am talking about and AsymBacGuy was referring to, you either get great and huge camaraderie or you do not.  Good and bad outcomes and right alongside of it, will be coupled with smiles and high 5's or snickers and a strong shot of air exhaled through each of their noses.   


Everybody here has seen this: a player is accurately placing his bet then the supposedly "lucky" guy heavily wagers the opposite side "mentally forcing" the former player to withdraw the bet.
How many times our hero was right to erase his bet? I suppose 50% of the times. By; AsymBacGuy.   

Bet placement is 1st and foremost to everything we do at the Bac table.  Everything comes after, win/loss, positive/negative, money management, strategy, whatever. 

Most players do not realize how the psych is effected by what other players do or even do not do at the table.  The worst offenders, IMO, are usually those that concentrate so hard and focus so stiff and maintain their heads in the hands.  Then when you, with whatever reason or belief (right or wrong) wager against them or remove your wager with clear indications it was done because of them is when personalities flair.  And, like I said, can be good or bad for your own outcome after that point.  It is not always the shoe---it is ourselves so many times.  More times that you can imagine. 

There is no magical fix to this.  There are things and ways you can have a smoother transition to influences and frame-of-minds at the Bac table.  But it is not to clearly show up other players, make fun, taunt, say things such as, "You will be losing those wagers when I get the cards", etc.  Do not mistake what I just said with friendship ribbing among players that genuinely know each other. 


"You can't win all night long, but you can't lose all night long either". By; AsymBacGuy. 

So many players give back whatever they win in each session and then their buy-ins follow also.  That is the most repetitive thing I have seen happen at all the casinos I have ever been to, no matter where the properties are located at or at what level the players are playing at.  Unfortunately, the first good win when it stops is usually the best win of the session or night.  I do not know why, but most times, the upper majority, it is like that.  I do really believe it has to do with the frame-of-mind of each player and their total false perception and illusions. 

They actually stop themselves from winning, or continued/further wins.  I am also guilty of this and this is the absolute biggest thing I try to keep in my conscious frame-of-mind rather than the subconscious where we all usually have it.  I am 100% guilty of it, hands down I think 100% of all serious players are also.  Why---because of the four factors I started out this thread with--that is why--that is why 100%, no 110%, we stop ourselves, period. 

Besides the cards impact, it's scientifically proven that a losing player is more emotionally guided than logically guided in his actions.

So the probability he will make mistakes should be higher than a "fresh" player as he's not considering every bet as a single bet, but that every bet must be a quick step to try to break even.

"Nobody is immune from this effect, it happens to everyone". By; AsymBacGuy.


Emotionally guided.  Yes.  I have been writing about that with lots the past several months.  Because by definition, that will cost you more winnings and more of your buy-ins and/or bankroll than anything.  This is directly related to bet-placement and if nothing else, you better define your own psych, how and why you wager what you do.  Take a look, a real look at your own; Illusions, Perceptions, Influences and Frame-of-Mind.  It is not easy to see what yours are.  I wish I could have in my first years, say first 15 or so years of gaming.  Maybe that is why now, I know all this?  I am not special, I am not a Harvard Psych professor, and I am not a mathematical genius like the Professor in Back to the Future.  I can just clearly see what people do and do not do most of the times and why they are doing it, at the Bac table. 

As far as the fresh player, AsymBacGuy mentions.  So spot on, can not be challenged! Again, a double edge sword but nonetheless, ever so prevalent at the Bac table.  Whether that is a passer-by, a friend of another player or a regular player just stepping up to the table.  You have to have the tenacity to figure them out and ride whatever coat-tails you can to capitalize if it is available and jumping out to be followed. 

Here let me try to quickly explain that one.  Some people, sometimes can see things we cannot.  The reason or why--does not matter--you might never know.  But it is a dangerous plan to follow others because when it backfires, the level of emotional punishment we inflict on ourselves subconsciously--sucks!  Been there and done all this.  I treat myself better and less harmful when I lose because of my own thoughts, ideas and illusions--rather than someone else's.  And myself, I recover faster and better when I make mistakes because of my own fault---not the fault of following another.  So, be careful.  Extremely careful of this dangerous rut.   


"Once we placed our first bet we are chained into the game, the logic slowly dissipate, the money doesn't exist at all besides the plastic we have in front of us".  By; AsymBacGuy.

Players create imagines.  Why, I do not know.  But they will interpret many things while they are gambling and I do believe each player will have a process they go through, without being able to tangibly define how they made that decision.  Oh sure they will point to the score board and say because of so and so, before and after, but there are other things that come into play as I have mentioned above. 

That is why I say, "Try your best to convert things out of your subconscious to your conscious side of your frame-of-mind".  Ask yourself, "why am I wagering that" or "Is that person influencing me"?, or "Where did I get that perception from", or "What is actually my frame-of-mind", etc., etc.

In conclusion, yes, "keeping track of certain losing players actions could be a possible trigger anytime we don't know where to bet and whenever we can't refrain to risk our money."  By; AsymBacGuy.


Easily back fires, is the problem!  The larger problem is, if it does back fire on you, then you literally kick yourself and get yourself even more clouded and aggravated.  Your frustration level will rise and you then get onto that hell-bent frame-of-mind where you do things such as a 7 step negative progression on one-side while the other side is experiencing a 14+ streak run.  I have seen it many times, and it is obvious to others because of that person's aura and actions.  Those would have to be the 'Creme Da La Creme' of being on top of the double edge sword as it happens to you.  Been there and done that, I rather steer clear of that one. 


Other Notes:


I have a casino friend that will always, without failure, ask me, "What do you think", while his hand is holding chips and he is attempting to wager.  However, this is always without failure after he lost several hands in a row.  Never one or two but always 3 or 4 losses or greater.  If he sees me win a couple, at least two, never one, he will then say, "What should I do"?  When I really feel something or am on a roll, I will nudge him with my arm and point or tell him what side.  Very seldom will he go with me, he has to lose and lose numerous hands before he will actually go with me. Perceptions and Frame-of-Mind are two strong influencing factors.  Do not kid yourself, they certainly are, although they are intangible and every yet so powerful over your subconscious mind which directly effects your decision making ability. 

How can you assist yourself and gain more control.  Be aware of these things and limit your subconscious mind and remember these things at the casino throughout your play.  Always physical repeat to yourself the question, "Am I thinking straight, am I being influenced by others and my subconscious mind or what"?  Be clear, non-clouded and actually affirm with yourself if you are acting on thought and reason or if you are acting on illusion and influence.  Question you perceptions and your frame-of-mind. 

On "Frame-of-Mind".  Probably the biggest out of the four areas that affect us at the Bac table.  Each of us has one, and that frame-of-mind will change with illusions, perceptions and influences without a doubt.  Being conscious of something negative or not the greatest for you might stop it from entering into the equation.  Likewise with the wrong or non-factual info/data about something that is good or positive for yourself as well.  Shake it all up, you will have your frame-of-mind. 

Here is an analogy (since my buddy LungYeh likes analogies).  My wife will take the 3 kids to the movies.  She wants to get there like 3 minutes before show-time, rushes to get the tickets and maybe stop by the snack counter and grab a couple of drinks and box of candy and a plain popcorn for the kids to share.  As soon as it is over, let's go, we have to get to so and so quickly and rushes the kids out.  I go to the movies with the kids.  We have to get there 30 min's before the movie.  The kids have to play the video games in the lobby or the side room arcade.  Then we have to all go to the snack counter, popcorn for 2 of them to share and another for me and the little boy to share (he does not eat too much of it, leaves more for me!) A box of candy for each and 3 drinks, I can share with the little boy.  Maybe something else like a few hot dogs or a large nacho chips with cheese, etc.  Maybe some sour pickles also.  Then after the movies, we all use the rest room.  Then we go play some more video games.  Then maybe, just maybe we can go somewhere like a real arcade or to Dave and Busters.  There is an example of two frame-of-minds.  There are most certainly, Perceptions-Illusions and Influences mixed up in there.

Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind (2 of 10 in a Series)                                                  
I am putting down my thoughts here based on reading the past couple of days.  I truly feel players going in a casino with the attitude/belief, "I can always get whatever I lose back by negative progression" is truly harmful.  Unless and only unless you are at a $10.00 min table and you are only wager the $10.00 or $20.00 and you have a reserved buy-in and you are ready, willing and 100% able with risking the sums of $5,100.00 and $10,200.00 respectively, to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7. 

But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost.  That buy-in bankroll can and should be used for other things and reserving it for positive events rather than the negativity and related effects losing has on most all players.  Those that believe in it and those that do it, I think the, 'can not retract', or the 'stick to your guns' and those types of overpowering and controlling thoughts set in.  Bad traits for a good to great Bac player, IMO!

While positive progressions are a very vital part of making profit while winning, any kind of negative progression to break even or obtain a small profit is extremely dangerous. 

So, personally I forget about the smaller losses of $100--$250--$500, etc., and concentrate on the winning progressions which will far and beyond, make-up for the losses I had, if I win.  If I lose I will also lose with the negative progression.    To me, no rocket science.  What am I missing?  How do I win with a negative progression and cannot win with a positive progression?? 

My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

I say the above, not to dispel, discredit, insult or challenge of any of you in anyway.    

I say that from experience.  From my 35 + or so years of playing, progressions only reflect the 'outcome', 'good luck', 'bad luck', 'once in a lifetime win', 'worst game ever played', whatever each of us cares to label their results, etc., and progressions pertaining to positive or negative in fact.  Progressions bring you up a level of everything in wagering and gambling, it plays on your psych. And, I am saying that for the negative as well as the positive ones.     

Although the one place I play at in the Midwest, it has a current $10.00 to $2,000.00 tables.  Most places, do have $25.00 or $50.00 minimums and the majority of the numerous high limit rooms, especially in Vegas, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and California do have a $100.00 minimum up to $300 minimums.  The negative progression numbers would be exceeding the table limits on 6 and 7 place progressions pretty easily, even with the lower table minimums.  And reality is, most all players do not bring $25k or $50k to the casino to wager $50 and $200 a time.  I do not care what the experts and gaming info writers recommend for 100 or 250 times your average wager for a buy-in or bank roll, sorry it is not reality.  Not here to discuss what your buy-in should be.  Most all players will not weather losing 30 or 50 wagers until they break even or profit 5 or 10 units, 100 to 200 wagers down the casino shoes played in a setting.  That is reality.

Someone wagering $250.00 would be on an $8,000.00 wager on his 6th wager with a buy-in of $15,750.00 at risk.  Someone with a $400.00 wager would be at a $12,800.00 wager on his 6th wager, with a $25,200.00 buy-in at risk if he lost the 6th one. Like I said not practicable and will only happen with an occasional player that will risk huge money to break even.  Might be good gossip and drama to talk about here, but in the casino it is extremely dangerous. 

Although everyone's financial picture is exclusive to themselves and not others, most of the experienced players will not engage in negative progressions much more than once or twice as a general non-written protocol.  This is because they have seen 7, 8, 9, 10, or 12 losing hands or something called the 'non-believable' from actually happening right then and there.  Happens all the time.  Not every time, a player normally wins numerous times before he actually experiences what I said, probably because his losses were overridden by wins or just his plain ignorance of the losing times.  When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

I said all that to bring the reader to a point.  And that point is, what negative progressions can and usually do to most players, not all, most.  Frame of mind is altered or effected.  And by that, I mean the following. 

Can you or anyone prevail with a dedicated 5 step. 6 step, 7 step Marty 'negative progression' to prevail for 1 unit or so?  Absolutely.  That is not the question.  The question is, how many will you lose before all the wins and money risked are long gone?  Some say something along the lines of, "If you lose 7 or 8 straight in a casino than what are you doing there"?  All players, even the winning most players will lose 7 or 9 or 12 straight at times.  And we cannot regulate when those times come along or how much we are playing with when those times set in, until it is too late.  Every one of us (I sure the hell hope so anyway) are saying positive and motivating things even if we are going down.  And if you were (and it happens, I seen it numerous times) going down say wagering $500 bets and then you started to lose with a negative progression before you can play it all out to the 5th or 6th spot, as you would be over the table max on the 7th and 8th hands, and they cut down to $100 or $200.  You just fall deeper in and get your frame-of-mind damaged and clouded even worse.  Then when you do win a couple, you are so far away from even, it is really sad. 

So let's assume me and you are gambling at a casino.  We are wagering $20.00 and we lose, lose again and once more-lose.  Then we say let's go negative progression to recoup that $60.00.  So I place $60.00 out there.  Then $120.00, then $240.00 then $480.00.  Sure hope I hit by the time I got on that 4th bet.  I had an additional $900.00 counting on the recovery of the $60.00 that I/We lost.  And, if that did not prevail, then we have to pony up $960.00 for the next wager to get back the neg progression attempt and the original $60.00 we were hell bent on getting back.  I will stop there at the 4th/5th attempt and not even go into the 6th/7th attempt possibilities.  If you do not think they are real-possible or can happen to you---think again, I promise form the bottom of my heart it happens frequently.  But it is the nature of the players---when things like this happen, the player's frame-of-mind is affected.  They somehow get hell-bent on the negative progression hope and convince themselves they will prevail.  Yes, they can and yes they do, but not every time.  And the down side to that is the possibility those winning time with neg progression instilled into your frame-of-mind.  It is not that hard to recoup a few hundred compared to a few thousand or a few thousand compared to a tens of thousands or a tens of thousands as compared to hundreds of thousands.   

No one here goes in to play one time and calls it quits.  They play year after year and will continue to do so. So I know the effects of neg progression and their effects are much greater negativity than most anything in live gaming.  A negative progression to me, is the same as a volume of combustible liquid with some escaping fumes, improperly contained inside a heated warehouse without ventilation and ignition sources sporadically present.

As far as 1 win and 7 losses.  I have repeatedly seen great players that usually prevail and have lifetime positive wins, lose in excess of 7 times consecutively.  If you have a casino that the average player cannot lose more than 5 or 6 consecutive times, I will sell everything I have and borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars and be there tomorrow, maybe the next day.  But I know that is impossible, does not exist and will never exist.

But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking??? 

                     
How You Lose, 'Why You Lose'

With all the beliefs and subscriptions as to easy money 'sure fire winning', "I can beat the game" and numerous other ones, there seems to be widespread disagreement among the factual raw data of gambling with games that are either fair or extremely low house advantage.  Baccarat falls into that description of being a fairly low house advantage.  However, it is all dependent upon how the player is attempting to wager, mostly with time and length played and actual number of hands.  All the rest of the game beliefs, strategies, illusions, perceptions, influences and player frame-of-minds are subjective and individual to each player. 

It is rock solid, will not change, cannot change that, there is a definitive explanation of what actually happens to a player that plays too much.  And that is, what will happen to a player with finite resources continuously playing will inevitably go broke against a player with infinite resources in a fair or negative-expectation game. However, this is also true in a positive-expectation game if the player with finite resources continually plays and increases his stakes when winning, but does not reduce them when losing.  And you-the player have finite resources.  And the casino-your opponent has infinite resources.  Period, no discussion, factual.

You can believe it, not believe it, incorporate it into your play or totally disregard it and be the first King Kong gambler to overtake and bankrupt any and all casinos you enter with your play and unlimited hours.  I learned and I learned the hard way.  It was not in any one gaming jurisdiction or any one casino property, I was hard headed and I had to have my lights knocked out by several in each.  But one day I actually did read, understand and became 100% conscious of the time and number of hands factor.  But I did learn and moved all (well all that I know of anyway) form my subconscious to my conscious frame-of-mind when I am in the casino chair There is no magic time or number of hands whether you are winning and should stop or if you are losing and should not continue any longer.  It is individualistic and ideal to each person and their situation, experience and comfort levels.  The problem with the internet, is it causes "lazy learning" in my opinion.  Meaning, I can just go on the internet, read something, learn it, be versed in it, use it and profit from other's mistakes and misery.  Well, partly correct, but to really work and work in your favor the best that it can, is you have to tweak, twist, turn, bend, conform and adapt what will actually make you a winner.  And that my friend, will take trial and error, blood sweat and tears and cash. 

Here is why I say that, because I might be able to go into a casino with $2,000.00 and play two shoes and win $15,000.00.  With the same buy-in and shoes and time played, you might be able to win only $2,000.00 or perhaps lose all together.  No matter the protocols and set-parameters of buy-ins, wagering and time played; Game beliefs, Strategies, Illusions, Perceptions, Influences and player Frame-of-Minds will enter the picture and you will have different responses and reactions to the numerous things that happen within the course of the baccarat shoe being played out, than what I would, as long as we were not sitting side-by-side and agreeing on each and every hand with an exact wager, etc.   

So, among gambling analysts, casino personnel, statisticians, experts, related professor type non-casino others, and of course, the me's and you's, the fresh or let's say under 10 years of playing and the been there crowd, more than 10 years of playing people.  But the fact is, experience is realty and reality is made-formed and experienced every day at the casino, any casino, every casino.  Realizing reality is different depends on the events produced, however it will always repeat itself, but in a random way, when it is ready.  What is a random way?  At a future date past the hand you are currently experiencing.

Your actual results diverge from being somewhere and doing something.  The more you do that something, the more you engage, the more your results just diverge at a slower rate--faded, clouded, non meaningful, etc.,  even though you play the same amount of hands and shoes per session. 

Reason being, your subconscious tunes out the norm and what you are comfortable with the majority of the times.  So then, the actual ratio of results will eventually translate into either good or bad ?lucky or unlucky" negative or positive, and so on. 

Here are my two examples of why people lose oh, there are many more but this is not a novel, this is just part of a series of baccarat play I am writing about.  #1) A most famous example I can give of why gamblers lose is, in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more or less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 red or black. Gamblers lost millions of dollars betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.  What could they have done different?  Pounce on it.  But that is just a written and published example of what I call, false illusions and playing against what is happening.  #2)  The mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during a period, it will happen more frequently in the future.  As well, and must be included is also the following.   In which a gambler decides, after a consistent tendency towards one side or a certain type of event, that the same side or event is more likely out of some mystical preconception that fate has thus far allowed for consistent results of that side or event. Believing the odds to favor that side or event, the gambler sees no reason to change to the other side or possible events from happening and then regression to the means occurs, which is a proven outcome in gambling will happen, not might happen or could happen, but will happen.

I saw it the other night, super clear and like my little boy taking a bit of candy from the box in his hand and shoving it into my mouth, telling me to taste it.  No choice and obvious is what I am trying to say.  A younger gentlemen working two cards for the Players side, working them-squeezing them-peeking and blowing and dinging.  Flops a Natural 8 over.  His facial expressions, his excitement, his tallying up the forthcoming win all so ever present.  Defined, bold, a statement as to his believes-convictions and perceptions.  Then an elderly female with little fanfare and a bit of excitement, but not much.  Flops a Natural 9.  The sheer disappointment and quick slam of the table by the younger gentlemen, I actually felt kind of bad for him.  But, what was the most interesting part to me was the comparison on excitement and expressions which was a direct reflection of each person's illusions, perceptions, influences and player's frame-of-minds, regardless of the wager size from each.  The female had a much larger wager by the way than the younger gentlemen did.

The female player could have easily have had a total of zero or anything up to an 8 and lost the hand.  She didn't know any more or less than the younger gentlemen did as far as what was going to come out of the shoe next.  But, there was distinctive influential factors as to what each had go through their decision making processes prior to the hand coming out.  There was talk from each about how and why each would prevail.  And I also say, the younger gentlemen could have had the advantage of not being hard core and set in his ways the way so many older and seasoned players certainly are.  In fact, I do believe that being fresh to a game going on or fresh in the number of years played, both have certain advantages over a player that has been at the table for many shoes as well as his having many more years of experience than the other person.   

Point being---and I do wholeheartedly believe an important point.  The harder and longer one plays, the more callous and laziness that person becomes to the important info, signs, trends and values of the sections within each shoe.  Whether that is the total number of hours and shoes for the session or the number of years of experience.   Same as most workers say for example on a construction site.  The newer workers are seemingly alert, watching everything, everywhere, all the time.  Never letting their guard down, etc.  Super CAREFUL and METICULOUS (!!!!!!!!!!!) with all capital letter and exclamation points after.  As the months and years roll ahead, that same person pays less attention and has noticeably less concern for his surroundings.  Although he is now experienced and seasoned, he opens himself up to the immediate and surrounding hazards and obstacles he once was worried about, was always conscious about, avoided and stressed over.   Eventually there came a turning point where most of those things went into his subconscious.  In fact, so many become a bit lazy as well.  By the proper definition of the word lazy, as in physically lacking output, etc., I am not referring to that.  But what just happened with this type of worker, is he just became a bit hard-headed, egotistic and in fact a bit overconfident.  Probably not much different than the highest majority of all bac players that have 'been there and done all that, as the saying goes.  And those very same seasoned players I am referring to, will wager 12 times against a Banker run of 15 because of the things I laid out.  Then those exact same seasoned players, will win their 16th hand which is the 'cut' to the other side they were so adamantly convinced was going to happen 13 hands ago, they won far less than even because of table limits or their own bank roll.  Of course they also missed the 12 streak of the other side immediately coming out next only because, "that is so rare and cannot happen". 

Be smart, stay conscious stay alert keep your brain working and fill your conscious with the illusions, perceptions, influences and correct frame-of-minds that will lead you to profitable and non-egotistic and knowledgeable wins with the correct time to stop and retreat.  Be ready to pounce on those small sections identified by their turning points when the shoe does produce welcoming opportunities to clearly smack the casino as they say.  But you are only going to be able to do that by not getting lazy, not getting over confident, not believing negative progression will make you whole, not being overly influenced with garbage, false illusions, fake and worthless perceptions and a proper frame-of-mind.   

If you have convinced yourself that you can win with merely wagering with or against what you have statistically calculated should and will happen, while under the believe that is all there is to this game,  come back and read this in a couple of years.   

I know and I thought I was too hard on Him and that everyone else picked up and I went back and deleted some of my stuff and apologized and told everybody to give him some space but it is what it is. if you're in it for a strictly a commercial Venture and you don't have the experience especially the experience you think you have what you claim to have it is a whole other ballgame kind of like going from the minor leagues or let's say the Little League to the National leagues

                The Way We Think (Especially at the Baccarat Table!)

"It will happen"--"It has to happen".  Those are two of the most frequent sayings a player will here.  And at times, yes they both do and yet at other times, never.  Some might not say, never.  They explain it as, "then you are grasping, no evidence, just wishful thinking, etc.

Large wins, then nothing.  Like WOW!  Complete fizzle out, then turns into a demand to prove something to no one except myself, that I can win again or more.  Always the same, never changes.  Years and years of playing, different properties, different states and does not matter whether Asian, White or Latino, same same, does not change.

Here is another one, "Monkey See Monkey Do", the list can go on and on and on.  Okay, let us get going on the purpose of writing this now. 

I was coming into work this morning.  I was exiting a gas station/c-store parking lot onto a side street.  I wanted to make a quick left and go about 40 feet to a main east-west through-fare and hang a right turn.  However, this guy has to come up and literally block my exit and he had to wait for the car in front of him to get a break in traffic to turn left.  Of course he could not have left me room to go across and out, he had to block the way and stop smack in front of me instead of 15 or 20 feet before creeping up to the car stopped in front of him anyway.  What was he thinking, what was his perception, closer to the other car waiting and he would go faster?  Too much trouble to stop, let me out and then creep up to just wait anyway?  There had to be a logical explanation rather than, "I am just a jerk and I shall block the drive so this guy cannot get out and has to wait because I have to wait"?  Maybe, but I do doubt it.  I think it had to do more with perception, initial thought, etc., than the latter. 

One more, 'My Cousin Vinny', yes the movie, I love it.  Anyway, remember towards the beginning when Vinny was in court at the arraignment of the two kids and he did not understand the procedure for saying Guilty or Not Guilty?  Well, here is what happened:

Judge Chamberlain Haller: Mr. Gambini, the next words out of your mouth better be "guilty" or "not guilty." I don't want to hear commentary, argument, or opinion. I don't want to hear any facts or evidence. If I hear anything other than "guilty" or "not guilty", you'll be in contempt. I don't even want to hear you clear your throat to speak. Now, how do your clients plead?

Vinny Gambini: [intimidated, but the words go right past him] I think I get the point.

Judge Chamberlain Haller: No, I don't think you do. Now you're officially in contempt of court! Would you like to say something else and go for two counts of contempt of court?

Vinny Gambini: Not guilty.

Judge Chamberlain Haller: Thank you. Not guilty plea has been entered for the record. Probable cause hearing will begin tomorrow at noon. Bail for both defendants will be set at $200,000. Oh and bailiff, take Mr. Gambini into custody with them... and set his bail at $200 for one count of contempt of court.

Okay, Vinny had a different perception of what me and possibly you heard the judge say.  That is exactly what I am referring to, each one of our thought process, interpretations and perceptions might not be the same.  Well, the same thing happens at the baccarat table based upon each one of our past experiences, plateaus and other factors that are different for you, me and others. 

          *****EXPERIENCE--PERCEPTION--THOUGHT PROCESS*****

Experience, Perceptions and Thought Processes.  A lot in those three words, believe me!  Perception is probably the largest and the most confusing to each of us at the baccarat tables.  In fact, huge in baccarat as players tend to place wagers on what they think that they interpret will be coming up for one reason or another.  How the player thinks and reacts will equal, interpretation of the information the player observed.  As well, the past experiences, good or bad of that player.  Past runs witnessed, quantities of runs, infrequency of runs or chop-chop/alternating lengths, 1's-2's and 3's, 1's and 3's, doubles, balanced shoes, imbalanced shoes and lots more.  Lots and lots more.  If the player has not experienced certain things, then he does not know what might come out and when he starts, he will certainly be in the dark as to its formation reality and what could happen.  Please, do not misunderstand the aforesaid sentence for prediction or anything of the like.  With a reasonable player, with common sense and a player's mind, that is conscious of reality rather than wishful thinking and dreaming, prediction is not relied upon in the typical sense.

If the player has past experience then the player has good perception as to what very well could come about.  So, I am not saying old-timers that played this game for 30-40 or 50 years have a better shot at it then a fresh newbie does without deducing down how much experience, perception and thought process is used in a skillful way, rather than prediction wishful thinking and dreaming, based upon a written advisement someone created and sold on the internet entitled something like, "how to win at baccarat".

I am saying experience is huge along with an open frame-of-mind, the ability to interpret your perceptions within a clear thought process and the ability to pounce-on-it or stop playing and book a win.  That is why so many newbies seem to be the real deal and then a ? or ? shoe later are fizzling out with giving back all the win money followed by an aggressive attempt to recapture the win just lost, they have no ideas whatsoever how they won what they just lost in the first place.

3 Kinds of Perceptions will generally make-up the players thought process based upon his experience.

False Perception.  An erroneous perception of reality in baccarat.  Just a self-inflicted vision of concept and belief by the player.  The player will convince himself and thus be completely deceived by a false perception and subscription to his current wagering selections based solely on his past experiences or what others are mumbling and telling him to do.  The player will always rationalize out what seems to be fantastic and successful but the false perception will soon surface and cost him lots of money.  When he wins using this, it just fuels the soon to erupt fire that much greater.

Temporary Perception.  The player is attempting to calm his lust to win, usually after a period of false perceptions, just fizzled out and cost him a large amount of his win or buy-in capital he had.  Since perception is extremely hard to actually define and harder to actually understand by most people, the temporary perception is more of a fleeting, some right and almost on track type of result for the player which could send the player into larger wins or aggressive losses.  REALIZE WHAT THE DIFFERENCE IS AND HOW IT HAPPENS!

Self-Correcting Perception.  The hardest to explain but here goes.  Almost elementary psych but one can very well relate to, self-correcting perception to learning.  How the younger school kids, say elementary school aged and how they are easier to convince and change their mind set then middle school aged and how middle school aged kids are easier to convince and change their minds than high school kids and/or adults would be.  But self-correcting perception, within baccarat is the player catching himself following others especially when they are wrong in their bet placement processes.  The player realizes he was drifting and not paying attention or at least he blames that as his excuse for following others and not paying attention, etc.  It would also cover the player's ability to correct himself with reverting himself back to the basics such as, remaining conscious of his plateaus, past experiences, capital, bet selection methods, duration of playing time, variances and win holding, etc., etc. 

In closing, if you think everything is 'cut and dried' with a simple bet selection/bet placement method and what you will walk away with or place as a stop-loss, it is not that simple.  Although it might be for those that have a one-side one-vision playing style, but for those players that are more successful, they realize that there is no easy definitive 'cut and dried' protocol of wagering, stop loss and win stop amounts. The latter has absolutely found the positive and tangible effects of being conscious and employing other factors and events into their basics of wagering, cashing out and playing time.     

[For those of you that, wholeheartedly believe you can pick a bet-placement/bet-selection method, sit down at a Bac table, win a certain amount and then leave, DO NOT read the following, it will be a complete waste of your valuable time and will not apply.]

If you truly get into the game and take it seriously, you will find that you must have additional knowledge about other things that highly effect your winning, losing, playing, decisions, etc., other than your actual bet-placement/bet-selection process.  If you DO NOT, you will either do one of two things:

1)    Win and give it all back and then attempt to recoup and win again while losing your funds;

Or,

2)    Lose and keep losing in the attempt to win.

Amounts of wins and losses do not generally enter the picture.  Naturally you would think that, say a person with $500.00 buy-in wins about $1,500.00 would stop, cash out and leave.  Or a person that buys in with $500.00 loses, he would also stop and leave calling it a good try.  (Amounts stated are just for example purposes only.)  But, more times than others, that will not happen, not by far!  The person that won the money will have a complete change of mind frame and became convinced as to how easy and how profitable the game is to play.  "Hell, I worked all week over 40 hours for $ XYZ and now I just received double that for 20 minuets of my time".  BINGO!  That person will continue and continue until the variance and house retracts their money as well as the player's buy-in and most likely subsequent and repeated buy-ins that usually will happen.  As well, the person that lost will also continue to buy-in and attempt to win either because of his past wins or what he has witnessed while playing or watching the game.  Although their mind frames might be perfectly working, most players for quite some time---just do not have the proper mind-set and conscious knowledge of what the volatility of the game actually can produce as well as their own agenda and protocols that can hurt any chance they have for positive sessions.  The reason being, the #1 reason is the player's 'plateau' and what the player has or has not experienced in his/her past.  Once you can figure that out, you have just added a ton of ammunition to your arsenal labeled, willpower-patience-knowledge-short term plan-control and player's advantage.

Once you have played a while (more for some and less for others) you will 100% relate to those two scenarios I named above, and by the way, those are the only two things that will generally happen at the baccarat tables the highest majority of the time.  I stress--the 'highest majority' of the time.   

Another reason, right after the failure to recognize and be 100% conscious of your 'plateau'.  Is the player having one set of beliefs when they sit down at the table, and another when they are not at the table?  By that I mean, a player is looking north only, one way.  That translates to say a player that believes and will wager only when one or even a certain number of things will happen.  As well as that player's belief in obtaining a certain amount of wins, or having a certain stop loss, or playing a certain amount of time.  Sure, certain things or events do happen and happen either more frequently or less frequently than others, but the sad part is those times cannot always be identified by the player.  However, things change---and for all kinds of reasons the players have absolutely no control over and never will.  Some recognize the change as it is happening and so many do not.  And therein lies the majority of the problem.  So, what is a player to do?  A player should have a lot more than his one-sided belief for all the numerous things and events that can and do effect the game of baccarat as well as himself while playing the game.  The more 'well-rounded' player will believe in; north, northeast, east, southeast, south, southwest, west and northwest, all with equal possibilities of any path being the one to take.

There are too many variabilities, beliefs and attitudes to properly define what each of us should or should not do in the many variable situations the game presents throughout and the player faces.  And, those that will tell you to do 'so and so' after 'such and such' are normally selling a system or a pre-set course of play that will never ever prevail with any kind of consistency.  I will not venture to discuss the pros and cons for all those numerous types of systems or recommendations for probability.  They will only cost the highest majority of the players trying them, all kinds of money.  Worse yet, when someone wins with one of them, they become totally addicted to that system or style, and the damage will add up fiercely, quickly and with great damage. 

So, if you think a bet-placement/bet-selection system is all that is required to profit from this game, as well as set, 'one-sided beliefs', you are only fooling yourself.   

Last night a typical Saturday night at the casino!  LOL, to the max!

Started the shoe with a casino buddy of mine.  By hand 20 the table is now full.  Wasn't bad, probably up a few thousand.   Almost thought about leaving and booking the profit, but something told me to stay.  Weather was outside anyways.  Not much else to do and getting late.  So just decided that I would stay a play a couple more shoes.  By the end of the shoe, the excitement started. 

Some lady comes prancing up and starts screaming at the top of her lungs at one of the players.  Pushing his shoulders and yelling, 'so I am here--who is that b*tch with you'?  Everyone looks at each other and breaks out laughing, seriously---loud and blatantly.  The lady got super p*ssed at that point and the guy her husband evidently, just ignored her.  In fact he motioned to the floor manager/pit boss to get rid of her.  The floor picks up the phone and dialed.  A min mater security is there and the one waits a few feet away, another comes and another comes.  There is about 4 of them now.  We are still playing on, hand after hand.  She is still yelling and screaming.  Not much different then other tables yelling and screaming when they are winning anyways.  She really don't do anything wrong yet.  Not yet.

Then she takes off her ring and throws it on the bac table in front of her husband.  Security goes to restrain her and she gets wild.  BIA Police are now running down the aisle as well.  She grabs the girlfriends hair and yanks her to the ground as the security is bringing the wife to the ground.  Now there is a pile of the following on the ground.  The wife, the girl friend and 2 security officers. 

The general manager of the casino is now running down the aisle and a bunch of suits.  We just had a huge hand, everyone on the banker side and the players side, no one on it, returned an 8.  The guy peeling the cards is saying he had a three side and a one line card.  We are really trying our best to play, seriously trying to ignore all the football tackling action.  We all had pretty good sized bets out.  All the other tables around us, had their players removed and their chips covered.  All of them, the two on each side of us and the three or so directly behind us.  But not the bac table where the guy was at.  We need to play!  LOL. The guy peeling the cards flops a 6 and says he has a 2 or a 3 and we are all standing now and dinging and pinging to add the dot.  Now there is like 3 or more floor managers and a security around our dealer and all the security and BIA Police behind us are trying to keep us separate from the rumbling going on behind us with the wife and the girl friend. 

We played another couple of hands and they get the handcuffs on both the women and everyone removed and they all leave.  The bac game never really interrupted.  The casino manager comes over and tell the guy, that his wife wants her ring back and can she have it.  The guy gives it to him and asks about his girlfriend.  Wanted to know if she was going to be arrested for slapping or punching his wife in self defensive.  The casino manager said, no she would not.  The guy said, cool.  The game went on.