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Messages - alrelax

#271
Sometimes I have succeeded and sometimes I have failed, but always I have taken heart from what I have experienced, accomplished or been subjected to.

Put the blinders on, tune out the wannabe fantasies and apply the correct focus employing dedicated one section/one session, combating wrongful belief against current presentments of the shoe.  Just remember, please.  Why? Because the 'anything and everything can and will happen agenda-but with absolute true and complete randomness', and that is what the highest of the highest majority will never ever figure out.  Never.

There most certainly is a path to righteousness, but it is certainly unclear exactly what that path is and how to continuously follow it.  And there is where most all on these forums, as well as at the tables, are seeking to discover and get filthy rich from.  It will never ever happen, because you can't beat randomness with mathematical science, structured into wagering triggers that will prove repetitively positive. 


  • Here, a perfect quote  IMO.  Theodore Roosevelt once said about the man in the arena, "whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again because there is not effort without error and shortcoming, but who does actually strive to do the deed, who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumphs of high achievements and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly".





#272
Alrelax's Blog / The Internet. Forums. Reality.
April 16, 2023, 06:59:16 PM
PART 1

The Internet has done its share of negativity to gambling.

Especially in games like baccarat. Why? Because most everyone wants the 'Google and Find' answers no matter what level they are at. Including accuracy, success and positive results they will have in every session. A complete fallacy but they chase it in every means possible without really focusing on what will help them in my opinion.

Maybe 'Google and Find' works in a great amount of things; How to replace parts, how to work certain equipment, guidelines for troubleshooting broken mechanical things, directions to places, reviews of locations, recipes for cooking, statistics on towns-cities-states and worldwide locations, history of all sorts, corporate backgrounds, etc., etc., etc.  But 'Google and Find' will not offer you the triggers and mechanical wagering schedules most seem to believe really do exist that will offer a continuous and repetitive winning wagering plan.

The Internet does offer a very limited amount of resources to anyone as well as some experienced players that attempt to engage in serious and real discussion regarding gambling. But during the previous years they have fizzled out extremely with ridiculous and childish behavior, that the highest majority seem to engage in on a daily repetitive showing.

However along with all the ridiculous infighting, circle of exclusive friends and drama driven people that only offer one line non factual or insightful and totally meaningless posts, demeaning and humiliating comments, as well as total negativity, so many of the long-term experienced forum players either do not post any longer and simply refuse to engage in forum exchanges with the types I just mentioned. Sad but brutally true!

I have noticed, as well as a great amount of others, there is a much larger amount of rejection and dismissal of whatever experienced and knowledgeable people say these days, both on the forums  as well as at the tables. Why? I would have to attribute it to the masses of people are just not familiar with the 'anything and everything can and will happen agenda-but with absolute true and complete randomness', trying to be explained, shown and discussed.

Since most people start playing Baccarat by some sort of stumbling on the game with no prior research, trial and error or coaching, they are highly subjected to all the systems and easy money selling talk of one type or another on the Internet before those people finally come across a forum with serious members and less drama then all the other ones.

And throwing their good money after bad (lost at gambling and system sellers) money they all experience for a while, they immediately side with so many of the drama driven, one liners, etc. I guess I'm just assuming, it's just their subconscious way of getting back at anything that really makes sense in gambling? 

What is really sad, and I witness it over and over and over again, but so very true, are most being 100% hypocritical of experience, real results and factual findings.
#273
Bump for many reasons. 
#274
Wagering & Intricacies / Randomness and Reasons
March 27, 2023, 12:49:49 PM
You know what is so sad at the bac table, witnessing all those people believing the written hype and B.S. on the Internet!

This is going to be a tough thought to get across, but it set into me the other night right at the active table. And that is, do not get emotionally attached or detached from what is going on. It will probably equal out and most all the times it does, referring to the Players/Bankers winning hand count within the played shoes. How it does, is usually different than the previous time, reference when and how it does. And that is kind of a key factor in successful wager, IMO.  Most certainly there are times it does not, like 40s and 20s or 30s and 20s, etc.  But far greater amount of shoes end much closer, such as a + - 1 to + - 5 range.  Remember that if you are trying to gauge yourself in some type of wagering pattern depending on the count.

There most certainly are reasons why it does but those probably never will be discovered and exposed. As far as how and when the equalization occurs in the shoes being played, that part will always be truly random allowing for all of the reasons why people wager how they do.

One of the problems with all this is the scoreboard, roads and beliefs, all staring you in the face and coupled with your beliefs, thoughts, chips and greed, power overcomes rationale at most every single turn of the game. Simple and I challenge any single one of you to say different.

Can it help? Sure. Can it hurt? Absolutely. And that is the point I am trying to get across.  Thoughts and beliefs are the two single greatest things that will either make you or break you in gambling my friend. 

You have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

The true randomness is, what and how the presentments happen/are happening. Not why they did. Once again, you will never ever figure out the why of it. Simple.  Period.

All the writings about fictive this or that, up on losses and down on wins, adhering to random pieces of wishful thinking, etc., etc., which are believed by most to have to be presented, are such total BS it is sad and if played regularly will take your money most every single session. Might be great writing and great hope, but zero advantages and only luggage on your shoulders at the tables.

The most powerful things are, positive progressive wagering and a M.M.M., that includes 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd in your session. 

Chart all the losses you want. Chart all the wins you want as well. Does not mean anything! Never did and never will.  That is what is truly random in this game. What wins one time, loses another or wins again in a slightly different way. There is no telling, no mechanical predicting in any way whatsoever that can make a steady profit. All of the results from tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of hands and shoes will never ever allow the serious player to earn a profit. All those results, triggers and math 'anything' will never be translated into session by session. Never ever.

What does make money in this game, serious money? That is positive progressions that you were able to wager on the side that is simply, winning. Does not matter if it is the side that is catching up, pulling ahead or both sides remaining equal in the hand count. A win is a win. What is your advantage is to be able to win more positive progressive wagers and walk out with a greater amount then your buy-in on a repetitive basis.

#275
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 26, 2023, 01:14:45 PM
YOU SAID:

"a) Taking for grant that bac shoes are really randomly offered;

b) It's the corollary of the above point, that is considering baccarat as any other gambling game where the 'whole' findings (infinite shoes) matter instead of focusing about 'single shoe' dependent features and properties."


And, what you said above, is probably 2 of the biggest mistakes most all make.  First, one assumes and believes that all the forthcoming presentments are truly random (and without reason) from the shoe. 

And, second that most all will be continuously (CONTINUOUSLY) running their findings together as a constant play rather than a finite or sectioned event.

Think about it, really sit down and give it thought.  Personally, I certainly stopped the all too famous and popular, "well so and so happened, so now such and such must occur", etc., etc., wager justification rants at the table.  Except maybe, when it is at those +10 and at or near that +20 count. Other than that, I am most certainly wagering for what is being presented rather than wagering for those dream full whole findings to come out and match up with math/stats/results and so on.
#276
Trick of Baccarat.  What Casinos Love in Baccarat, Simple Yet So Misunderstood.

There are huge psychological effects the game instills on players, while you are losing as well as winning. You better research those, understand them and consequently combat them in your wagering.

So you have to look past those mathematical results, those systems being sold and partially  highlighted all over the internet and as well, published statistical results in order to figure out how to give yourself the real knowledge, you really need to win. 

Why do I say that?  Here, about those 3 things.

1.  Math.  Because the math will apply only to the total amount of results that it was derived from. Example, 1 million shoes or 80 million hands.  2 million shoes or 160 million hands.  It does not apply to the 1, 2, 3 or 4 shoes you are sitting down to play for real money, in real time, for real results. Simple. True. Proven.

2.  Systems.  Because all systems are only selective highlighted events that may or may not happen. Simple. True. Proven.  But every time someone puts a little twist and turn on some type of highlighted system event, it makes it look easy with no downsides.  People are gullible, greedy and ignorant to the true factors of the game and what it really takes  to win any amount of money people claim is fool proof or should happen without much downside, if they only buy and subscribe to their system, etc. 

3.  Statistical Results.  Because the statistical results will only apply to the same mathematical conglomeration of tests that were performed. They are not going to be reflected within the 1 to 5 shoes you were sitting down to play with real money, in real time, with real results.

There are three types of areas that produce tangible events, that happen during a shoe of Baccarat. Favorable, Neutrality and Negative.

Understand those above three areas 100% and couple those consciously with the four most important factors of playing the game.  Realize that there are areas and factors. 

First Factor.  Buy-in/Bankroll.  Your buy-in must be  only a small percentage of your bank roll.  A good safe safe percentage would be 10%.  Your bankroll must be restocked before any profits are taken if it's going to be any type of safe sound bank for you to draw from on a repetitive basis. 


Second Factor.  Understanding Drawdown.  There will be drawdown usually quite frequently before (BEFORE) you realize any type of session goal countless times. You must cooperate and realize this and not let it get you into the negative frame of mind, because of the psychological effects of losing your part or most of your buy-in, getting into the monetary negative or even losing a whole buy-in amount. 


Third Factor.  Positive Progressions.  Using positive progressions to restock your volume drawdown, lock it up and capitalize on your win money; is ultra positive in countless ways to your agenda on winning.  You better think about the aforesaid and understand it.  I guarantee you that it is clearly easier to win without  negativity whether it's on your buy-in or yourself, psychologically.  Remember that!


Fourth Factor.  Plateaus/Levels.  Understand and acknowledge your plateau and levels with total consciousness and allowing them to guide you no matter if you are winning or losing .
#277
Here are some proven blacklisted casinos to avoid.  Be cautious, there are others out there you will have problems with.


https://www.casino.org/untrustworthy/
#278
QuoteVery very nice passage!!!  :thumbsup:  :thumbsup:  :thumbsup:

No jokes.

as.

I believe those are the 'circumstances' where I realized and defined the M.M.M. I've written about, which includes my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd allocations.  The highest amount of times it allows myself to hold at least 2/3rds of my larger wins and my buy-in money, while keeping available 1/3rd of my win for continuous play/winning, etc. 

Although that is NOT in anyway a decision making tool for how to win, it does with physical regulation manage my win money.  Unlike most others that fall direct prey to winning, which results in 99% of the time or greater, feeding it right back to the rack as well as their buy-in and additional monies they will attempt to regain their good fortune that came and went. Sad but absolutely true. 

And BTW, that score board is one of the greatest 'suck'em things' in the casino's favor they ever did with baccarat.
#279
If there are people at any kind of bac table, some will win and some will lose, no matter what.  All will never wager on the side that continuously wins or loses every single hand. 

Like myself, when a player has had a nice run and begins to give it right back to the rack with aggressive wagering, especially wagering with the exact same reasoning that won him/her the sizable amount in the first place, it is a very commonplace event that their decisions are not generally going to produce continuing positive results for multiple reasons that occur more often than not.

Whether that influences you to wager the opposite, you are still attempting to match the presentment the shoe is setup to present, no one can change that.  You can only change or influence yourself and others what to wager on. 

The game does not allow anyone to continuously employ any type of mechanical system/method or decision making process in repetitive mode in abundance.  If it did, they game would not exist in a casino, period.
#280
QuoteI have a question Al:

Do you think that the winning process is somewhat affected by the 'ability' of the other players sitting at your table?

Many players I know do not like playing alone at a table.
What do you think?

Thanks in advance

as.

Very difficult to define with short and concise answers.

But for sake of conversation I will state my opinion.

First of all, unlike many others, I rarely wager against another player because he is losing, etc.  I do know numerous (a lot) of players do exactly that. 

Second, I rather play at a table with numerous other players for camaraderie purposes.  I have won a heck of a lot more than I would have, by engaging in strong  camaraderie with others.  As far as losing while engaging in camaraderie, so what, you risk your money with no guarantees anyway.

Third, being the only player at a table, is extremely stressful to myself as I do not desire to engage in every hand. 
#281
Alrelax's Blog / A Couple of Shoes the Other Night
March 12, 2023, 06:48:31 PM
Sitting at the baccarat table the other night and the last hand, an F7 comes. Yes, I was on it, because of numerous reasons. But it was the 4th F7 of the shoe and it finished 41 B to 30 P.

There was a very unique occurring five times, maximum 3 chop-chop in the shoe.  There were several other events that happened as well and were capitalized on by myself and others. I will post a picture of the scoreboard once our attachment posting problem is fixed.  The majority of people made money, but in the following shoe, which was classically easy to follow, most lost quickly. 

The next shoe brought a great start, banker-player player followed by a 7 streak Banker and an F7 on the 8th hand, within the streak.  Then there was a beautiful seven time chop-chop event that happened immediately after the seven banker streak. I did extremely well. I colored up and cashed out.

The cage is not far from the baccarat table. I cashed out and went back to the table to see what was happening. It turned out there was a problem with the hand after I colored up and left. There was another chop and the banker came out. The dealer picked up the first few spots Wagers which were on the banker and the game was stopped and surveillance was called to determine what the wages were to replace them on the spots. The hand was completed and I threw up a few hundred dollars and wagered max on the F7 and the rest on the banker. They all looked at me and said, "you don't see the chop chop". My answer was, "but there was eight hands in the beginning and an F7, now you have eight chop chop and I feel another F7 is coming or banker".

Most all were on players with large wagers. Myself and one other person wagered the Banker and the F7. Cards dealt, Players have two face cards, bankers have blackjack, players pulled a six and they were all fist pumping in the air and calling out, 'chop'.  Dealer flips another six for the banker and my F7 happened.

Clearly the player side is verbally citing, WTF and saying how that should not have occurred, Etc., Etc.

But as with so many things in the game of baccarat, the same things that won previously, lose presently. And the same things that lost previously, will win presently.  That my friends is random variance defined in realistic terms. 

And while sitting there at the table during the shuffle prior to the last shoe I just described, I dwelled on how the majority, mostly, confirm the absolute unpredictability of the game-over and over and over, week after week after week, but yet continue to get sucked in by the casino's score board. 

NOTE:  I will post both pictures of those two shoes as soon as the attachment for posting pictures is fixed on our forum. Thank you.
#282
More so than not, the first 1/3rd followed by and within the first half of the shoe, have a greater amount of F7s and P8s than other sections. 

To me, it's not really the predictability, it is more the capturing of possibilities that exist and are forming. 

There are balances and imbalances.  There are the pathways to each of those that are being realized several times throughout most shoes.  A person open-minded enough without mechanical wagering emotions, is likely to be able to wager winning sides within sections much easier than those that are hell bent on following their systems and figured out 'must be's' to appear. 

#283
Many might have noticed I had all the online casino banners and advertising removed from my forum.

Why?  Because of their dishonesty and outright lies.  Yes, we would get a commission based upon sign ups and plays.  When I questioned the online casino officials, they told me a ridiculously low number of sign ups and play from my forum the past months. 

Well I signed up myself and had another 4 people open accounts as well. Those 5 accounts were never accounted for and added to my forum's tally and commissions. 

As well, I had one member claim he was cheated and he stated his case to me.  I believe him and his proof was rock solid. 

So it clearly appears to me, they do these sort of things on a regular basis, therefore they can do their business on The Wizard of Vegas and other gambling forums, NOT MINE!

Thanks,
Alrelax
Forum Administrator & Owner
#284
General Discussion / Re: interesting web site
March 04, 2023, 10:56:38 AM
Yes, absolutely you can post these sort of links.  You are a well established member here.

I do not allow new members to post links, sites and related websites because they are posting sales related systems or online casinos that they are a salesman of sorts for.  Many of those sites have very little regulatory restrictions and bad payout records. 

Thanks for your participation here!
#285
Few upgrades are being performed including fixing problems that exist reference attaching pictures, etc.

The forum is going to be in maintenance mode intermittently during the first days of March while this fix and the new badges code is being implemented.

Thanks for your understanding and patience.

Respectfully,
Alrelax
Administrator and Forum Owner