Conflict & Reality.

Conflict has a lot to do with playing baccarat in my opinion.  Because, conflict will change your frame-of-mind and how you wager with or without your conscious thought.  And that is not good for you.  Be aware of conflict and how and why it comes about.

Conflict is the result of events, usually events that went the opposite way you wanted them to go or if you were remaining neutral but had a feeling it was going to be a result, and that result came about and others at the table began to proper nicely, conflict can also come.  Be aware.

Conflict:  Events, Comments, Situations.  The various things that lead to those three and usually opposite of what you desired or spot-on, but you were not wagering at all or cut way down in the amount of wager.

Perceived Conflict/Felt Conflict:  The perceived conflict is the logical and factual events which are based around the conflict itself.  In other words, whatever lead up to the exact point of the event.  The felt conflict is your feelings, your hostility, your hurt and other feelings when you see those winnings given to your table-mates whether you like them or not.

Factual Reaction:  Aggression, Competition, Debate, Withdrawal, Tilt.  They all happen and if you do not think so, you better take your time, look at yourself and realize they do.  Fix the problems and play better without a doubt.  We are dealing with lost money or money not rightfully earned here and it gets emotional, admit it or not.  Once you do, you can fix it for the most part.  I have narrowed it down to 5 parts at the baccarat table.

Aggression

Competition

Debate

Withdrawal

Tilt

Agreement or Defeat:  We tend to enter into agreement with others that we do or even do not normally agree with at the table, depending on how they are doing at various times.  Follow your own thoughts, rules, beliefs, protocols, etc., sometimes win everything you touch, and other times lose.  Follow others that are winning or going against them when they are losing, works as well sometimes and other times it blows up in your face.  And that is exactly why following or going against someone else is disaster waiting to happen.  Because, IMO you will blame them and not yourself.  You will blame them for their mistakes and that event will launch you even further into frustration and confusion.  So be careful and realize when camaraderie and team-work is beneficial.  If you must ask, you will not use it the correct way anyway.  Using it as a crutch or a catch-all, is not the proper way.

Putting it all Together:  Realize what is happening, why you are making the decisions you are.  Are those decision from the cards, the shoe, the events themselves?  Or, are they from the results you have deduced down from the other people there playing at the table?  Huge difference and huge consequences will come about.  I promise you that.  Learn how and why you do things at the table, you will help yourself to better, clearer decisions and being better focused and dealing with the events as they should be.

 Interpretation Alters the Reality With the Game Of Baccarat

By: Alrelax/Glen.

Each shoe is a series of events, and with each event we attach a meaning. With each event we decide upon an interpretation and then we believe what we just interpreted and rely on that for the next matching event. It is with these interpretations or attached meanings that we define what will happen and how we will wager. Then we go about collecting evidence to confirm and validate these interpretations and merge them into our gaming plan and strategy.  Which normally causes the highest majority of people to lose much more than they win.

The baccarat shoe is a series of events, and with each event we attach a meaning. With each event we decide upon an interpretation. It is with these interpretations or meanings and definitions we attach to them, that we define when and what to wager with the grand plan to win money. Then when we do win with those, we convince ourselves of the evidence to confirm and validate those interpretations our great minds have finally found and substantiated.

In truth, each event you experience within a shoe of baccarat, might or might not repeat itself nearly the same or more frustrating, exactly the opposite. It is the interpretation of the events that shape your thought process and how you view what you just sat through. In other words, it is not what happened in the shoe that made the difference, it was what you decided about what happened and how it happened, that made all the difference. It was what you decided caused or did not come about, that affected your decision-making process. You just became a victim of your own interpretations, your own narrative, you own realization of the game of baccarat. You became fixed in your experience and continued to feed the events with further interpretations that shaped all your beliefs, which then compelled you to act them out even if it was detrimental to yourself and your bank roll. Because after all, you found all of this, your ego and money are at stake and you cannot be wrong, everyone else is.  Of course, no?  You will not chastise yourself, you will not admit you do not know, you will not realize for many years of playing baccarat that the game will produce exactly what you discovered, did not discover and in no particular order whatsoever.  All that happens is you maintain hope because at times you get it correct and most all people will with greater volume, get it completely wrong.

It is from this realm of interpretation that your reality of the game of baccarat was shaped, ground into your thought process and interpreted by yourself as a beatable, easy game that is just there waiting for suckers that do not know what you have discovered.

It may have appeared that events you have discovered and highlighted within the game of baccarat are either distinct from each other or similar.  That you move your wagers from one to another, separated by some degree of special knowledge you claim fame to. From this point of view, things seem not to be random any longer to you, just leading you to win after win and reinforcing the interpretation you have formed and now believe.  And that my friend is how we get sucked in.  No matter the experience or not, receiving free money and winning will play with your mind at the table.  Some say no, but the reality is, it most certainly will.

Now if you were to take a step back and really look at the game with an open mind and some distance, you will see the totality of the game as it really is and not as a single flowing event. If you step back further, you will see that the game will produce anything and everything in no particular order.  You have a right and ability to harness and experience whatever you do believe with the game of baccarat. That belief can only take place from experience and not from computer technology to figure out what will or will not show up over hundreds of thousands or millions or hands.  This awareness alone is tremendously valuable, yet so few believe it.  They are convinced the game is based on numbers and numbers will govern the game to a balance that they can certainly be figured out.  Sorry, it cannot and will never happen that way.  But pursue what you desire and find out for yourself.

When you make the distinction between the event and the interpretation of the event, you will begin to operate from awareness -- that in each moment and event is an infinite field of possible reactions and responses. You choose. And whatever choice you make will cause and direct all your future experiences, which will be your interpretations of the game you formed.  You will no longer see the game of baccarat as it is presented, you will only see what you have interpreted as the game of baccarat.  And that my friend is the real dangerous part.  That part will cause you to capitalize on some of the game sometimes and when the real opportunity presents itself, you will certainly miss it because that opportunity will certainly not match your interpretation of the game you have formed.

Forget about interpretation.  Interpretation of the game of baccarat will not prove profitable to the player.  It will confuse you and misalign you with your false beliefs.

View the baccarat shoe as one seamless limited event with Sections and Turning Points, that brings into focus of how important all single moments are and not repetitive and/or scheduled, because they are not.  In these moments you have the power to transform your wagering into something that could prove profitable and redundant to a certain point. This moment is there to be capitalized on with your recognition and experience, not your interpretation of a baccarat shoe.  Part of its ceaseless flow, its limitless potential, will occur sporadically during moments offering you an infinite realm of possibilities.

Only in being of the frame of mind that does not rely on interpretation of unknown events, you will allow yourself to recognize certain shoe presentments when it is presenting certain Sections and Turning Points, no longer based on negative interpretations and the past. This is the essence of playing a shoe that can and will produce anything and everything no matter how frequent or rare the event might be.

That is why it is so important to learn to, be in the moment, in order to experience the genius of yourself, who you really are and what a baccarat shoe can and might  present. No doubt there is a bigger picture out there; it is up to you to master the art of the no interpretation and the reality of baccarat.

Make sure all of your information and beliefs come from Proper Foundation.

And as always I'm talking about real casino gambling.  I'm not talking about kitchen table researching or forum drama. I'm talking about the decision making process with real money in a brick and mortar casino.  I'm talking about how you should be making decisions and arriving at your wagers. 

Proper Foundation. Meaning, not from emotional reflections or attempt to discredit and combat chatter on the forums, or junk sources such as systems sellers and YouTube infomercials etc.  And the sad part about picking up your information and believing upon it from those sources, is a very dangerous road. If you happen to get some of your wagers correct you'll have a false foundation that will set in and do a great amount of damage to any possibility you have to be on the correct road and make serious profits.

Onwards, there are three elements that must be adhered to in order to form Proper Foundation.

AUTHENTICITY - RELIABILITY - RELEVANCE

Authenticity.  The content of the information not coming from emotional reflections. Forum-based drama and of course system sellers and infomercials. Most of all, not biased based broadcast by a prejudice source.

Reliability.  Be able to recognize the information into real-time stability and consistency, that is virtually or near free from errors.

Relevance.  The comparison of the information within reliability to the actual game itself as well as your wagering style and results. Relating to timeliness, comparability and the understandability of it.

Most Important.  You must follow simple and strict perseverance, self discipline and in complete reality to remain within the guidelines of the information. THINK!

One way or another, no matter what your volume play is, as well as the dollar value you should seriously consider the following.

Be Super Smart In Your Money Management Method.

You must reinvest your win money back with your bank roll from your independent sessions. If you are not and only building your buy in with great hopes and dreams to clean out the casino and get rich, your time is extremely limited until you go bust.

Once you have a workable solid and real Money Management Method, you have a chance to really venture down the path as a series player and be able to hold winnings.

One of your first tasks is to find a source of income to fuel your initial bank roll. Once you do you should without a second thought subscribe to a Money Management Method that will assist you to protect and grow your bank roll. It does not make your wagering decisions what so many think, that a Money Management Method does. I have written about this in other parts of the forum where you'll find my thoughts and excellent Money Management Methods that work.

Growing Your Bank Roll.

Remember that buy ins are always and have to be a percentage of your bank roll. Buy ins and bank rolls are two separate and two very different items.

You must adhere to buy in amounts off your bank roll, that will allow you to level and plateau yourself to add comfort and security to your play. If you can do that, you just put yourself leaps and bounds ahead of the highest amount of players attempting to win money.

You will be developing skills to allow you to fuel your bankroll, protect your buy in and have the chance to wager with the smallest chance of loss.

You Must Prepare For Adversity.

Winning and profits are not a one-way street, NEVER. If you are finished reading, subscribing to and believing drama driven attempts to discredit by others on forums or the junk sources such as newbie system sellers and YouTube infomercials, all junk, you must understand the following.

Unexpected situations and events will occur in play. They do and they have to and they always will. I personally feel if you are ready and you are researching this, you have already lost previous bank rolls . After all, newbies and inexperienced people playing would never be here if they continued winning and found the holy grail that does not exist.

No experienced player, successful or not, can foresee if adversity  and negativity will occur when sitting down and buying in.  Re-read that a couple of times.

I will say, strategies and the real-time application of those, will have to be developed and believed by each of us, the strategies consist of your Money Management Method, strict adherence to it, optimizing the wins within a session and the ability to not be overcome by the numerous emotional events that will happen. You will be challenged consistently with wins as well as losses while playing. But, this is where a real Money Management Method will 100% protect you.

You Cannot Risk What You Are Not Willing To Lose.

No matter what all those infomercials, system sellers and forum drama experts will swear by, it is not true.  There are no mechanical systems or triggers in play that will guarantee winning. Period.  Once you understand and subscribe to that, you have potential to be a serious player.

Gambling is Gambling. No matter what you want to believe or not. Same as owning a business, at times you will make great profits, other times you will make small profits, other times you will break even and yes, other times you will lose money, no matter how hard and how well you serve your clients/customers. Business owners have a bank roll as well and it is always at risk and they are constantly adding to it or removing from it for their business survival. When their bank roll goes away, they go out of business. Casino gaming is no different.

There is really only one sentence here to factually describe what is 100% true and will never change in casino play. Wager with the money that you are willing to lose.

Note:  There are certainly ways you can give yourself a very large advantage and if you couple a good Money Management Method with extreme emotional control of your winning and losing, you will be able to realize the benefits, advantages and skills that will earn you win money and be able to retain it and use it.

Note:  I have written about and detailed out M.M.M.'s on the board here.  Here is one thread that will give you some insight to a M.M.M. and its intricacies.

     https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11117.0

If I understand the latest it would be the following. There has to be three or more repetitive winning hands and then you're looking at the cut. If it makes one or two on the cut, then the following would have to cut again and your trigger would be on the third spot to be a repetitive hand.

Example.

BBBB
P or PP
BB —- >>>>(this spot) <<<< Is the hand to wager on.



So Asym, on a score card laid horizontally or the main road, it would look like the picture below.  You are referring to the spot to wager where I put the X, CORRECT?

[attachimg=1]

Am I correct?

Ref the first wins, wins with least risks, winning first wagers, etc, etc.

You guys are correct and I know I have written about it extensively. 

Here is a piece I wrote previously:

"What I do see, more in the Midwest than elsewhere on a consistent nature is the 'playing for the cut'.  Never changes.  Last night there was a couple shoes in a row at a $25.00 to $3,000.00 Macau/Midi table.  For Example, strong first half and stronger second half--4 solid runs of both bankers and players.  2 runs of 10 and 12 Bankers and 2 runs of 7 and 8 Players.  Followed by solid 2's and 3's of each between the runs.  A strong shoe, no doubt, no arguing. Put a bunch of the old school players at that same shoe and guaranteed the dealer's chip rack would have been minus all the lavender and orange, all of it.

Lots of money flowing into the table, everyone losing.  Like HunchBacShrimp pointed out, every repeating banker or player, the people are wagering for the 'cut'.  And to boot, which I believe from the past years of play, when the shoe is strong--it is strong, no changing it.  When it is weak, it is weak.  (A weak shoe is the time to wager heavily on the cut, again-IMO and opinions of many old school players)  Sorry the game does not change.  The game is and was always the same.

What I mean by 'strong' is say on the repeating banks, the player shows 8 and the banker returns a 9.  The player returns a 7 and the Banker returns 5 and pulls a 3 or 4.  Every hand the players has a fairly high value hand but gets beat and then the same on the player repeats, etc.   Repeatedly, not once or twice or three times out of 20 but like 16 to 18 times.  That is a classic 'strong' shoe.

The way I learned to play was to go with the shoe.  No matter what it was doing, weak, strong-whatever.  Yes and a capital YES!  The shoe can change the opposite way at anytime."

Ref the last sentence, meaning you are wagering for what you want the shoe to do, not for what the shoe is actually presenting.  And one wins by wagering on what the shoe will present,   Once you understand that, your pathway to profits will be easier. 

'The Music has Stopped' : Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall


From today's NY Times:


'The Music Has Stopped': Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall
Crypto companies are laying off staff, freezing withdrawals and trying to stem losses, raising questions about the health of the ecosystem.


Over the last two years, as the prices of Bitcoin and other virtual currencies surged, crypto start-ups proliferated. Companies that market digital coins to investors flooded the airwaves with TV commercials, newfangled lending operations offered sky-high interest rates on crypto deposits and exchanges like Coinbase that allow investors to trade digital assets went on hiring sprees.

A global industry worth hundreds of billions of dollars rose up practically overnight. Now it is crashing down.

After weeks of plummeting cryptocurrency prices, Coinbase said on Tuesday that it was cutting 18 percent of its employees, after layoffs at other crypto companies like Gemini, BlockFi and Crypto.com. High-profile start-ups like Terraform Labs have imploded, wiping away years of investments. On Sunday, an experimental crypto bank, Celsius, abruptly halted withdrawals.

'The Music Has Stopped': Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall https://nyti.ms/3mKYUcr

Quote from: KungFuBac on June 08, 2022, 05:30:54 PM
Hi all,

ABG in his reply above:
"...Hence, for example, it's way more probable to get a shoe showing up to four or five 3+ streaks (-5.5 and -4.5) than a shoe forming the same symmetrical fourteen or fifteen  3+ streaks counterpart (+4.5 and +5.5)...."

     that's a good example and perfect way to illustrate the limiting profile of Bac for this and other similar-length patterns.

*Of course as we all will agree most shoes could still have that one long same-bet  or same-pattern repeating streak and many players will latch on to that in their minds eye and let that /only that dominate their decision making(especially if in front of shoe and a same-side streak).

Side Bar:
I find it interesting when a long same-side streak presents in the first couple of columns and all of a sudden other players from nearby shoes come running over salivating for that streak "just one more time" . Though if the same length streak of say tres presents: pppbbbppp, not as much hoopla.  If the same-side streak is really long such as 10-11 in a row even other players from other games will often come by, gawk, and point,  and make statements like: "I would have made about $400K" or "I would own the casino IF i had been here",...etc. Oh well, at least they are optimistic.


Continued Success,

Can just as easy profit very large with a strong 'chop chop' or doubles or triples and so on.  A streak of anything, does not have to be a banker or player run. 

Drawdown.  What is it? It is technically the amount of money you lose before you start drawing a profit from your Buy-in.

First.  When does it occur? It can be in the very beginning of your session or can equally be at the ending, when you are on your last few wagers before exhausting your Buy-in. (Remember buy-ins need to always be a slight percentage of your bank-roll)

Second.  IMO it should be calculated and viewed with only the amount in front of you. Not collectively from prior sessions or any kind of running tallies/totals etc.

Third.  Again, IMO the drawdown must not be viewed and compared to previous drawdowns. The presentments are different and there is no reason to compare, it will only give you false senses of confidence or worse, make you scared bettor. You have to remember, drawdowns fluctuate and will always fluctuate, no rhyme no reason to define and learn how drawdowns may appear or not. They are a fact of gambling and you need to accept  that and deal with it.

Fourth.  Emotions, pressure and other feelings will be triggered within yourself that cannot be avoided during drawdowns. The larger the drawdown the greater and more intense those inner feelings will be. So be aware and try to curtail emotions, pressure and negatively. Be ultra conscious of that, stop getting sucked in.

Fifth.  Don't confuse drawdown with stop-loss. Many fail to see the difference, but there really is. Drawdown is an undetermined, unplanned amount of money that will be lost before you realize a profit that is within your horizon of "winning the session and it is time for me to stop", thought and belief.  Just remember, you must be comfortable with some or most of and occasionally, ALL of your buy in being lost and classified as a necessary 'expense'  that goes right along with gambling. 

A little extra.  Just remember, it might not always be smooth sailing, no losses and repetitive winning. Just be ready for the worst with the proper frame of mind, proper buy in and knowledge of employing a proper money management method that actually works in your favor.

You can make it as painless and non-destructive as possible.

* Believe winners do lose
* Be smart
* Be totally conscious without getting sucked in as almost all do
* Stay in reality
* Realize what the game is
* Understand the highest majority of times a drawdown will take place,
       perhaps more than once

And, how and when you win is for the most part up to you. Likewise, how and when you lose, is for the most part, also up to you.

[quote author=AsymBacGuy link=topic=10695.msg70202#msg70202 date=1654653375


Thinking in the same way we all bac players would be millionaire winners.

as.



You care to know why there will never be countless millionaire winners at baccarat?

Because, the majority and I mean the highest of the highest majority, wager/play too long when they do win and fail to wager sizable amounts, giving back all or most of their winnings and eventually their buy ins.  And, when they lose they continue with the fiercest vengeance to continue buying in until their entire bankroll is depleted.

Both scenarios are redundantly committed, time after time after time after time after time after time after time after time. 

To myself and the others I regularly play with, a weak section/shoe is a combination of hands that cannot be followed. 

A strong section/shoe I are hands that can be followed.

The total amount of each type of hands, do not have to result in streak type of incidents. 

Section by section you can clearly see if it is weak or strong. 

They do not happen 'all the time'.  Correct.

But they do happen.  Same as with a series of 13-17 continuous chops, or a series of 8-12 doubles, etc.  Or a section with players or bankers where there are 5-7 winning hands of say player, then a chop or two or three and 7 or so more players.  Then a few chops or doubles then the same thing with bankers as what came out with the players.  Whereas you only lose your last wager after making 5-8 winning bets.  In the groove with following a strong section or a strong shoe.   

It does happen. 

And by the way, when I say 'strong' that means what you see in the bankers streak above, or a good section of chop chops, doubles or triples.  Also a good solid section with 1s-2s-3s-3s-2s-1s, etc.  Weak is a couple chops, a 3 iar, a chop, a double or two and a mini steak of say 6.  Meaning whatever you are following does not appear or appears once or twice out of 6 or 7 wagers.

People will argue, but you can't win with a weak shoe, unless you are wagering blindly a very small amount of hands, as well as wagering large on those trivial amount of bets. 

So many live for these types of shoes, then when they do appear just about the entire table is in real-life denial and wagering for the opposite side to match or just a continuous wagering for the so called, cut.  By the way, the last three natural bankers in the second run back to back, were all natural 9s over players natural 8s.  Which fueled the furious wagering on players. 

[attachimg=1]

You wrote, " IOW the finiteness of Bac does present us with a limiting-type profile on most patterns. Just my thoughts/opinion."

Exactly correct.  Times it will help us and yet, at times it can hurt us.  Can a whole shoe be very strong?  Sure.  Can a whole shoe be extremely weak?  Sure.  But usually, as a norm it will be a mixture of both. 

Mind-sets are helpful and as well, dangerous. 

As you wrote, "More often than not, long streaks are just an 'incident' happening along the way, so restarting the more natural process of  two-card math favorite situations."

Players confuse themselves terribly with chasing 'incidents'.  Defining them cause the highest majority to chase, wait, continue wagering, etc., and IMO it is dangerous.  The incidents will always come and go quickly. 

Problem is, if you win on defining an incident almost always you will give back and lose additional funds in front of yourself by wagering for it again and again.  Why?  Because you have just convinced yourself of a definable opportunity. 

Players will find all kinds of incidents and there are many many so called incidents coming out of the shoe.  Not just long streaks.

But yes, many times after long streaks there are sections of chops, but my experiences of chops can be two cards each side, or five cards, as well as six card total hands.