As you wrote, "More often than not, long streaks are just an 'incident' happening along the way, so restarting the more natural process of  two-card math favorite situations."

Players confuse themselves terribly with chasing 'incidents'.  Defining them cause the highest majority to chase, wait, continue wagering, etc., and IMO it is dangerous.  The incidents will always come and go quickly. 

Problem is, if you win on defining an incident almost always you will give back and lose additional funds in front of yourself by wagering for it again and again.  Why?  Because you have just convinced yourself of a definable opportunity. 

Players will find all kinds of incidents and there are many many so called incidents coming out of the shoe.  Not just long streaks.

But yes, many times after long streaks there are sections of chops, but my experiences of chops can be two cards each side, or five cards, as well as six card total hands. 

It was banker, player and ties only.

There were always the paper scorecards and pens available. 

Camaraderie was huge.  Most players grouped up together the majority of the times. Best I can define it overall was strong and weak were large deciding factors in wagering.  Players held the shoe and dealt the cards, you held the shoe as long as you made a banker hand, no matter what side you wagered on.  Once a player hand was made, the shoe traveled to your right, next player seated. 

Dealers could not get tapped out until a player hand was made as well.  A rack fill could not be engaged in as well until a player hand was made. 

On any streak, on any chop chop, the house lost large amounts of money.  Almost all big bac tables were $100 min.  Mini bac was out in the main floors, usually $25 min. But dealer dealt the cards and flipped them always.

In addition, after a lengthy discussion with two bac players the other night, I add the following comments.  Yes, they probably  have all been said at one time or another, but they are factual and prevalent to a positive game if used with a clear mind.

* Excuses not to wager something are always there for the player to cite and believe in;

* Why do you need a pattern/trend that is redundant, consistent or reappearing before wager on it, etc., etc.?;

* Why not wager on the hands while they are appearing and accept it as a Random-Trend/Pattern?  Seriously does winning thousands of dollars off a pattern that no one believes in and is 100% happening, hand after hand, spend any different from wins that come much harder in nature?;

* Why do you have to be 'ahead' of the shoe in predicting the cuts and changes or even the beginning of a redundant pattern, rather than just following the shoe presentments for select sections?

* We hear all the time, "it has to stop/cut", "it has to run", "such and such a card came out so that means ........", etc.  Well, figuring it all out is exactly why the casinos put those electronic score boards there, LOL.  You want to know something, years ago prior to 2000 or so, the casinos had no score boards and they had larger 14 player/3 dealer tables where the players would actually deal the cards.  But the casinos repeatedly got hurt so they changed the way the game was played, dealt and wagered on. 

KungFuBac,

#A1, has the answer to your previous "How do you deal with 3 or 4 iar" losses, etc. 

" But all in all, the baccarat player must risk a certain buy-in.  If it happens, it happens.  If he does not win with that buy-in, it generally will not happen even with continued buy-ins."

Please read it, as I believe this is one of the best and most detailed informative posts I ever made. (?)

What the common mistaken belief is, that the order of the winning hands and the trends or patterns can be changed to suit the bettor. 

Reality is, when it is strong for one side, it remains strong.  When it is weak for either or both sides, it remains weak.  Nothing can change anything from happening. 

>>>>>"a state of balance between opposing forces or actions" will always be there, the only question is when does it dominate and form perfect or near perfect patterns.

Problem for almost all bettors is, their belief that they should follow their experiences as well as what the shoe has previously proven or not proven.  I know that is a catch all statement, but and seriously BUT, the equilibrium usually prevails the highest majority of the times when it approaches - or + 10 and once again right at the - or + 20 mark, especially around the middle of the shoe. 

The first part of the previous paragraph means, although it might seem beneficial it probably is contradictory to the shoe being played out.

There are numerous factors that must be taken into consideration when wagering for the 'equaling' out.

You are exactly right! 

I also heard the same thing on a tv show about the financials regarding that. 

After playing for an extensive time, baccarat players have plateaus.  Some recognize this and many do not.  I bring this up because I got into a conversation with several players at a casino the other night.  There was 2 others with considerable experience and  the other 5 with varying experience from a few months to a year or 2.  The longer playing players had conciseness of their 'plateaus' which I define as where a player can get to in the terms of possible wins. 

I wholeheartedly believe that we will all have one sizable win in our playing endeavor/careers and then we idle along a relatively level surface of ups and downs, which could be compared to that of a field with valleys  and ridges.  The valleys and ridges represent wins and losses.  Every once in a while the player is able to stray from the field and find a nice mountain where he is able to challenge his own 'plateau'. 

With clear mind, a good progression, money management and being 100% conscious of the surroundings the player has his chances to conquer and surpass his previous plateau. This is not an every session chance to locate those mountains as the fields are quite lengthy to get through and come about the opportunities.  Think of it more along the lines of exploring.

And I might add, attempting to surpass your plateau in every session will prove devastating, which is what so many attempt to do.

Think about those things.

Watch this, a classic.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lvDu3IysKiM

I am putting this under General Discussion because it is more general than baccarat purpose. 

Serious members such as Asym,  Kung fu, etc., please take the time to read it, especially the second page.  Yes some are my long winded posts, but I do think fact-filled. 

So many casino writers that engage in life or death drama with extreme vengeance and Internet everyday wherewithal! 

As I point out in my post #15 on the second page, casino writers push and push their made up fake beliefs that sound good but are absolute trash.

Link:  https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=6525.0

Thanks for the post!  Alrelax

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 11, 2022, 12:06:24 AM
Al wrote The limitations are within each person playing.

This statement is very interesting to be commented, we'll see it in a couple of days.

as.

I saw it last night, I will attempt to put it into words.  Possibly it can help a few.  Will post later tonight.

Notes to the above from actual experience over years of B & M play.

P streaks and 'stronger' P than B is by far appearing with greater consistency then the B streaks and B 'stronger' in excess of a shoe here and there, or should we say 'consistently' while playing day in and day out, etc.

Reference "beat the game by betting many bets per shoe".  What so so many just never learn or realize, it is much better to bet larger, harder and more serious while limiting the sections we engage in BY FAR!  But not always easy to do.  Seriously.

The bias level will come and go, shoe by shoe, trip by trip.  P >bias, P <bias, B >bias and B <bias.  TRUE, but the 'trick' is to get the spot the other side attempts the instant comeback without being biased by YOUR OWN THOUGHTS, IDEAS, AGENDAS and EXPERIENCES, ETC.   Again no so easy to do.  Think about it.

'Random' Coincidence (define).   IMO it is:  'improbable' will happen—does all the time and often to the 'I can't believes' and the 'oh wow look at that, wows'.  Couple the 'exploitable' bias in along with the 'improbable'.  "We must choose what will be the best course of action to take".  Absolutely hands down!  Merge and side with instead of fighting against, what so so many players cannot seem to accomplish. 

You can't always adhere to your own terms and understanding of what the shoe is presenting (blaming in on the cards, the table, the dealer, the pit people, other players, the particular casino, etc.). And that in itself is super valuable if you can use it simply to your insight properly.  Not improperly as almost all do by blaming a non related cause such as I gave examples of in the parenthesis above. 

The limitations are within each person playing.

As I said in #5 of the above post I made:  " 5)  Convincing Yourself of Something Guaranteed.   No matter what it is.  Flat betting, wagering after such and such happens or did not happen.  A strict adherence to O.L.D. or W.L.D. or anyone of the other 10-20 rock-solid good wagers to follows as written about, posted and dwelled over anywhere on the internet message boards, forums, websites, paid sites, etc.  Along with the many other gamblers fallacies of Cuts, Trends, Triggers, Patterns, Clusters, Clumps, etc.  Or, just Hog-Wild, I am on a hot run and nothing can or will stop me and ultimately and with great consistent repetitiveness, give it back each and every single session, because you do not believe there are plateaus and levels that control you and what you have the ability to guide yourself through while wagering at the game of baccarat. "

Think about it.  Figure out what controls you at the table.  I have.

Understand the following comes into play for the forming of what actually will happen and be the result of your wagering at the tables:

VISION.  Your dreams, you're thinking outside the casino, your thoughts and everything else relating to the game financial related;

EXPECTATION & REALITY.  What you interpret and believe through your study, research, online forums, talking with other players, your actual experiences and knowledge all merged together (As well, I wrote a previous article on the subject);

APPLICATION & REALIZATION.  The continuance of 'Expectation & Reality' into the application phase will govern your thought process and your mindset at the time of play. Be honest with yourself and realize it, the hurt inflicted upon your wagering as well as the good.

Here is one way to visualize more about what I am saying.  Stretch out your right arm, all the way out into the side of your body.  Now stretch out your left arm, all the way out also and to the left of your body. Your right arm contains your 'Vision' your 'Expectation' and your 'Application'. Your left arm contains the 'Realities' and the 'Realizations' that will set in automatically when you play baccarat.

Now move your arms towards each other and interface your fingers together. Grab the other hand tightly and squeeze together, keep squeezing. Do that for 15 seconds or so. That is the merge of the factors together. Each time you do that you will have a slightly different grasp-length-style-firmness-comfort level-motion and feeling, etc. Same as when you play baccarat. You control it but you really do not in many ways.

Remember that, change the way you think and be totally conscious at the table. 

False Positives & Their Dangers to the Player and Chance.  Fueling Your Losses With Reason.

When wagering on baccarat and you fail to think, think clear, think absolutely clear, think with neutralism, think with purpose, think with the greatest concentration, we will get reinforced with the wrong way to play baccarat.  It happens quick, really quick?so be warned and be conscious of that all of the time.  It is not easy, but you do not want the false positives in your game.  And that is exactly what you will get if you cannot define and be absolutely diligent about your thinking.

There are numerous false positives offering themselves continually within the game of baccarat.  Very dangerous, extremely dangerous to the gullible, inexperienced and player that easily gets sidetracked or is dependent upon something he needs to find to at least think, is tangible to wager because of.  Also, most all players after a while will begin some kind of research into the game.  This takes on several different kinds of research areas.

1)   History of the Game. Different message boards and forums about baccarat and table games.  General and older written articles from various sources.  Media articles about the infamous, the famous, the legendary, etc., gamblers with their large losses and large wins.

2)   Mathematical & Statistical. Message boards, forums, websites and other published material online relating to the same.  The written books one happens to purchase, borrow or locate somewhere.  The attempted application and comparison of these to the game itself as played by the person.

3)   Probability, Chance & Other Things.  And other things of a similar Se-Scheduled nature and their counterparts including other areas of interest to those also.  The same as #2 above.  Once again, the attempted application of those will only lead you to False-Positives, that far outweigh any type of consistent wagering that will award you winning set-scheduled wagering greater than 50% of any time you play. 

4)   Superstition & Methodology. And other things of a similar nature that you convince yourself will allow you to win wagers because of phenomenon, certain events or any other type of presentment capitalization of luck or predication with the danger of conversion within your brain that allows to justify changing just what those were to skill.  Very very dangerous.

5)  Convincing Yourself of Something Guaranteed.   No matter what it is.  Flat betting, wagering after such and such happens or did not happen.  A strict adherence to O.L.D. or W.L.D. or anyone of the other 10-20 rock-solid good wagers to follows as written about, posted and dwelled over anywhere on the internet message boards, forums, websites, paid sites, etc.  Along with the many other gamblers fallacies of Cuts, Trends, Triggers, Patterns, Clusters, Clumps, etc.  Or, just Hog-Wild, I am on a hot run and nothing can or will stop me and ultimately and with great consistent repetitiveness, give it back each and every single session, because you do not believe there are plateaus and levels that control you and what you have the ability to guide yourself through while wagering at the game of baccarat. 

The belief in any or all the above will always provide false positives that will not benefit the player in actual play of any serious kind or more importantly in any serious consistency whatsoever.  What is even worse, is the few positive wins produced by following on any of those things will produce greater and greater influential false-positives because of the great quest for finding the unknown and secretive holy-grail, etc. 
 
Here, let me sum it up---at least on a mathematical and my statistical aspect converted to gambling.  Two paragraphs worth, with a sample visual curve, will save you from getting sucked in a dead-end path that will cause you complete bank roll failure.  If you will take my advice.  But hey---it is your money.   

1)   (First Paragraph).  The reason it will lead to failure, is because baccarat can and will do completely different presentments with no rhyme or reason, both mathematically and statistically, as well as complete randomness with no regards to scheduling and order correlating to events within the shoe you are sitting in front of;

2) (Second Paragraph).  Unlike elaborating, which Abraham de Moivre, Doctrine of Chances founded; The same arguments which explode the Nation of Luck may, on the other side, be useful in some cases to establish a due comparison between chances and design.  We may imagine chance and design to be as it were in competition with each other to produce some sorts of events, and may calculate what probability there is, that those events should be rather owing to one then to the other.

One trial and then scale up, putting an (X) where we expect to find our answer and takes the most general form of the problem; If something can happen with probability (A), or can not happen probably (B), in each of the (X) trials, then we can say, putting the power law in to general terms, that the chance of it not happening in every trial or even a cluster or a clump is; The number of trials where the chance will not happen and everything else is deduced down from that.

Because the possibilities of defining when presentments will appear anywhere from 1-80 hands will show up in the exact order and time you have scheduled your wager repeatedly for several wagers; Out of quadrillions of possibilities, it is impossible to do with definitive and concrete adherence by the shoe.  By the way, quadrillions is greater than 999 trillion times.

Unlike the ability to measure a curve to see what fraction of an area between start and midpoint and points in-between will become finite in their outcomes, the baccarat shoe cannot be measured in the same way or any other way that will allow you with finite guaranteed wins.