What you said:

"In other words, our strategy should rely upon a 'limited random walk'.

We can do that as any card distribution of the universe cannot deviate from more likely occurences for long"..............

Is exactly spot-on.  However the problem once a player wins using it, is his psychological end which falls subconsciously to greed (big time) and then the recklessness begins. 

I have written extensively about that. 

Being successful at baccarat involves numerous things to be conscious about and employ at the table.

Groups=Sections? 

Great post and so true 8OR9.

Reference the following four statements from the above post, caused me to post the following I had within my section.

Those four statements were:

" For example, we could evaluate how many ascending, descending or same value steps will come out at the same position or back-to-back positions shoe per shoe. Will some numbers be more likely to appear after certain other numbers at the actual shoe?

Within a shoe could a 0 value comes out always isolated (if any) or it should show up clustered at some point of it?
What about other numbers?

Is a same source of outcomes (same deck shuffled) a real important feature to possibly exploit those codes?

Every baccarat player knows that things may stay univocal sometimes but even may change rapidly in a way or another, that's why imo we better concentrate at most our field of operations."


Let me make it clear and state it right away.  Practical Knowledge is superior to theoretical gambling knowledge and as well, Practical Knowledge is incredibly important to any career and life in general.  Whether gambling, a non-related gambling career as well as life in general, all three of them, cannot and will not excel in Theoretical Knowledge only. 

With that said.  When it comes to the knowledge we all possess, use, govern ourselves, base decisions on and everything else related to those, there are different kinds and different ways.  On one side there is the theory way and on the other side, there is the practical application of that same side of theory.  There are distinct sides to each one, don't become confused with the oversimplification of the way so many attempt to streamline theoretical and reduce it to scheduled and reoccurring events.  That is salesmanship and intelligence modification that many fall prey to and become convinced of fallacy, lies, twisted truths, manipulated wishes, etc. 

But there is a theoretical side to gambling and baccarat play that used in the correct context can certainly add ammunition and tool box knowledge to the holder.  Such as, 'why' things happen, 'how come' things happened, and countless techniques that could succeed or likewise, might very well fail.  But no theory and I stress, not a single one, can succeed over and over with continuous redundancy the way so many seek, attempt to sell or wish for.  That is the key to understand reality with this subject.

So what is theoretical knowledge good for?  IMO, it is good for building your context of all the subject involved within gambling as well as baccarat.  You should have the context in order to set you strategy or at least know, where and how to proceed within the game when you are involved in it.  You can use theory to accomplish that, learning from the experience, trails, efforts, writings of others mixed with your own interpretation of those into some kind of viable fuel that you can implement. 

If the theoretical end of it all leads you to a deeper and more thorough understanding as to the 'why' behind it all, then you are well on a great path to better success than the uninformed person would be. 

Now, the Practical Knowledge, is the tougher one.  The practical end of baccarat play has to come from the actual gambling itself.  There is no two ways about it.  You will gain the specific techniques that will become, for simplicity sake here, your tools of the trade.  Keep separate but conscious of, theory being the ideal end of it and/or the reasoning behind it all.  The practical end of it, being the outcome and the actual varying events without restriction or guidance to the theory end of it all.  Do not fall prey to the biggest common mistake by most gamblers, which is convincing yourself that the theory end of it has to happen in any certain order or timing.

Both are extremely important, but without each other, you won't survive.  Theory cannot always be present and theory might continually present itself in different and varying ways.  That is where your practical knowledge will take over and apply a more specific solution or decision to what you are faced with in the game of baccarat.  It is a game, it is not a puzzle to be solved, and there are not definitive solutions. 

You have to mix the theoretical side of it with the practical side of the same thing.  The goal you need to focus on, is getting both ends of the spectrum to meet the majority of the times.   

Prominent German pro Fedor Holz has called out two well-known high-staked Brazilian pros for colluding during the final table of a recent high-stakes tourney on 888poker. The two Brazilians, Rodrigo "seijistar1" Seiji and Rodrigo "serouan1991" Serouan, were among the final five players in an event on 888's global online site.

Holz posted on his "@crownupguy" Twitter account, early on Christmas Day, "A pretty obvious collusion spot including Seijistar on a big 1K FT vs his friend Selouan. They are part of a Brazilian HS group that work together called '9Tales'. Cheating sucks. I think every HS reg that doesn't cheat.

Holz replied to his own post, further clarifying the alleged cheat. "In case It isn't clear, AJ folds. They probably weren't aware it's live-streamed with cards up."

Holz said the two Brazilians are good friends, and he accused Seij of making the way-against-the-odds fold to allow Serouan to take the pot and stay in the event. That Holz's accusation also mentions that several Brazilians are involved in a high-stakes cheating team, known as "9Tales", adds urgency to the situation.

888 responds within hours, promises investigation

888 quickly responded to Holz's claims on Twitter, noting that an investigation will begin immediately. 888 promised a review not only of the hand in question, but of other action between the two Rodrigos.

Any type of collusion is in clear violation of our user agreement.
We are reviewing this hand and others played between these two players. We are contacting the players to better understand their POV. We will be in touch with the players and act upon our investigation results.

Neither Seiji nor Serouan appear to have been suspended as yet by 888Poker. Should the collusion allegations be proven out, Seiji appears to be in the worst situation regarding possible sanctions.

Another of the players at the table "Panxetillo", was quickly alerted to Holz's own thread and posted his own thoughts. "Hi I'm Panxetillo," he wrote. "That hand was very suspicious, I didn't know they worked together in 9tales, so it makes sense now. Thanks for expose this case, we have to kick out people who cheat and collusion for the sake of poker. I hope @888poker investigate this and take action. Cheers!"

Such collusion remains a problem that poker has found difficult to eradicate. A Brazilian poker outlet has reportedly received a quote from Seiji stating that he "misjudged the situation," believing Serouan had a much stronger hand due to ICM factors. However, that likely won't satisfactorily explain Seiji's fold, given hos own strong ace-jack hand and the pot odds he was already receiving to call.

Hope everyone has a great Christmas as well as New Year's with better times for all of us to come.

Best to each of you, your loved ones and families.  Stay well, positive and motivated.

Quote from: chrismadsen on December 14, 2021, 08:22:06 AM
Baccarat is a game of chance, and you'll want Lady Luck on your arm when you take a seat at the table. Strategically, there's very little you can do to change the fate of the cards. Never bet against a run. Never use your credit to finance your bankroll. Never let other players influence your bet. I can't tell you how many bets I've lost or pulled back trying to please someone else. Set a winning and losing cap. Never play with emotion. It's just business. I learned about the game on 12Bet, and only if I knew all of this before I started playing, I would be much better off.

Here is something I wrote that might help you?

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11117.0

And also I wrote a series of 10 articles which are posted in the highlighted section all at the top of this room.  Read those of you are truly interested in wagering.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=8219.0

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) — America's casinos have won more money this year than ever before, according to figures released Thursday from a national gambling trade association.

The American Gaming Association said U.S. casinos have already broken the record for most money won in a single year at $44.15 billion.

Those figures are based on reports through October, as well as on a handful of states that have released results from November.

The total surpassed the record set in all of 2019, which was $43.65 billion.

And with many more states still to report November revenue figures, as well as all the December reports, that number will climb even higher. The figures do not include tribal casinos.

October highlights nationwide include in-person gambling continuing to drive the industry's recovery, with brick-and-mortar activity generating $3.97 billion, topping pre-pandemic totals by 16% from October 2019.

Americans wagered a record $7.05 billion on sports in 25 jurisdictions in October, bringing the year-to-date total amount bet to $42.19 billion. That is nearly double the amount wagered in all of 2020 when just 17 markets were operating.

With some data yet to be reported, commercial sports books kept nearly $408 million after paying out winning bets and other expenses in October, surpassing the previous monthly record of $405 million set in September,

Internet gambling generated $357 million in revenue, up 129% from October 2020, which is also a new monthly record.

And Colorado, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania and South Dakota surpassed annual state revenue records. Connecticut launched sports betting and internet gambling in October.

Combined October revenue from traditional casino gambling, sports betting and internet betting was $4.75 billion, the second-highest monthly total ever and an increase of 30.7 % compared to October 2019.

The industry has now surpassed $4 billion in monthly gambling revenue for eight consecutive months. Before this year, monthly revenue had never topped $4 billion.

Had one the other night.  Just about all singles, doubles and triples.  Then two bankers streaks of a 9 and a 7 bankers.  Just about everyone was wagering heavy each and every time on the players side. 

Here is additional information.

HONG KONG—Macau's casinos have shut down the VIP rooms of the city's largest junket operator, and its leader, Alvin Chau, has resigned following his arrest on illegal gambling and money-laundering allegations.

Casino operators informed Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau that they have ended their relationship with the junket operator known as Suncity, and suspended its rooms for high rollers starting on Dec. 1, the regulator said in a statement late Wednesday.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/macau-casinos-shut-high-roller-rooms-tied-to-arrested-operator-11638421924

The majority of the tables here are no vig, non commissioned baccarat. 

EZ bac, 5 Treasures bac (5 Treasures available in both commission and non commission) and others etc.

Among all the things, after years and years of playing, I do believe there's a player side advantage more so than a banker side advantage. I am not gonna get into the math statistics about the hundreds of thousands or millions of shoes tested with bankers side having a slight advantage, as it has been proven repetitively it does not apply when you pull out the chair and get up to the felt and putting your money on the table.

99% of all players lack the patience to adhere to any trigger or presentation series appearing. They will literally and physically crash and burn as they think they can wait between sections to offer them the ideal wagering chance they developed and proven or they subscribe to from a reliable source that is players or bankers or any combination profitable better than 50% of the time. Once you get over that, you can read on because if you believe in what I just said YOU WILL NEVER make money and retain your profits.

Especially those 2-3-4 hand ultra player positive, mini forward progression wagers, that almost always win type of bets. There are not many of them, where even multiple shoes are played, just be conscious of that and remember just that all the time. To play is not a relaxing event, it is a stressful and a serious time to focus and stay focused and not sit back and wait for one opportunity. There is a saying and you better adhere to it. That is, "when it's there it's there".

Most all people create a huge problem for themselves by judging their courses of action or others by the outcomes, often irrespective of the decision making process. It really takes planning, foresight and a solid base to adhere to and get what you really want because what you want may not quickly fall onto you or in front of you at the table.

You have to judge decisions you are making on the process rather than immediate outcomes. Because if you judge it on the outcomes, you falling sucker to the board at the casino installed for you to follow by and you will not make money by it. The board does not make the presentations, it records them the shoe makes the presentations before the board records it.  Think about that and remember that if nothing else.

Don't get me wrong you can't totally ignore or push aside clear results and the outcomes that is positive or negative, just use it to improve or change the course if needed. Here is a fantastic shoe that happened last night with ultra positive player presentations that out did the bankers in every way whatsoever for better than the first half of the shoe.  The sad part of it is, only a couple people made money and the rest of the lost huge amounts of money.   The losing people were all reciting the famous words, 'bankers is stronger than the players and all the other fallacy believes about baccarat' and failing to simply follow sections and presentations with a focus on randomness and variance that works in unaccountable and uncontrollable ways. 

Shoe from 11-27-2021:

[attachimg=2]

I took several pics of the board, don't know why the above one is a bit blurred and the word text inserted,  but I will post another one of the first half below this.

[attachimg=1]


Remember Asym, remember KFB, when I claim 0-1-2-3 ties hold their presentation presentments.  Also almost every time the players had a natural the bankers had 1 point less, players natural 8 bankers 7, players natural 9 bankers natural 8.  Also those last five naturals for the players had everyone on bankers, super heavy bets and I mean almost everyone was table max bet on bankers, wiped them all out.  And these are not billionaires, they are small business owners or regular working people with $40-$50-$60k bank rolls.  I mean I witnessed at least $300,000.00 going into the racks of the casino from the pockets of the people that subscribe to the fallacy, that it has to cut next hand. 

If you had a couple thousand to risk, this was an easy shoe to make $10k, give back $2k, make another $10k and give back $2k, make $15 to $20k and give back $4k and make another $10k and give back $4k before walking.

Just two things most don't possess playing the game.

1)  Self control and the willingness to get up a winner and walk away.

2)  A proper M.M.M. USING 1/3rds as the key guideline.

Also count the total players and bankers hands and remember what I said, wrote about and claimed reference the + -10 to the + -20 configuration after half way or a bit greater.  To me, it is the single most valuable tool a baccarat player can learn. 

BEIJING -- Macao police on Saturday detained the head of Macao's biggest casino junket organizer and others after Chinese authorities issued an arrest warrant for them over accusations that they ran an illegal cross-border gambling syndicate.


https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/macao-detains-suncity-boss-illegal-gambling-81418932

You said:

" It's a sure fact that casinos will make tons of money from baccarat tables as players cannot realize how many bets are placed into the 'negative territory' (almost always by improperly increasing the wagers) and how many bets are placed into the 'positive territory' by low or too low amounts.

The math edge is just a 'booster' for casinos and not the main cause for they are collecting millions from baccarat"

Which a whole lot and I do mean a whole lot of casino patrons have no real clue as to what the real odds or house advantages are at any given table at the time they buy in and begin their play. 

Also, I don't care what at any math nut claims, those numbers do not apply to me because I am only going to play 20 or 30 or 40 hands out of 2 or 3 or even more shoes. 

A second also is, those numbers come from (if done correctly) millions of hands.  Not 25 or 100 or 200 and so on.

So if I sit down and lose my buy in within 20 hands, I did not lose 1.06% on the Banker or whatever's being claimed these days, I lost 100%.  As well, if I lost  I never had a 99% chance to win.  I had a 100% chance to lose.  There, fuel for the math nuts to talk how stupid we are here.

The sad story comes on as patrons choose so often to believe those math nut's numbers.

You need to be acclimated to Drawdowns and accept they are a part of almost every session.

Drawdown what is it?

It is technically the amount of money you lose before you start drawing of profit from your buy in.

First.  When does it occur. It can be in the very beginning of your session or it can equally be in the middle or towards the end, when you are on your last few wagers before exhausting your buy in money.  Drawdown can happen at any time. The only time it will not happen is if you win in the very beginning and keep winning and cash out never losing any of your buy in.

Second.  In my opinion it should only be viewed with the amount in front of you. Not collectively from previous sessions or running tallies, etc.

Third. Again in my opinion the Drawdown must not be viewed and compared to previous Drawdowns either. The presentments are different and there is no reason to compare. You have to remember Drawdowns fluctuate and will always fluctuate with no rhythm and no reason to attempt to define anything more than what I just said. They are completely random and will always be random.

Fourth.  Emotions, pressure and other feelings will be triggered within yourself that will not and cannot be avoided. You tell yourself you will not let the pressure and anything else get to you, but it will. The larger the Drawdown the greater and more intense those feelings will be. Be ultra conscious of that, stop getting sucked in.

Fifth.  Do not confuse Drawdown with Stop-Loss. Many will fail to see the difference but there really is. Drawdown is an undetermined, unplanned amount of money that will be lost before you realize a profit that is within your horizon of, "winning this session and it is time for me to stop", thought and belief. A better way to describe it is, you realize your buy in is your risk money and you will play until you win or lose and you are not doing what some people do, which is ridiculously sit down say with $1,000 and if you lose $300 you're done. Or if you lose say 3 or 5 wagers, your done, etc.  All that does is put an undue amount of pressure on you, because you have money there you are saying you're not willing to wager and you cannot wager and you have to make money on a certain percentage of it. Trust me it's a huge negative in sitting down at the table.

Stop Loss is simply like I said, a set amount of money if you lose out of your buy in money you will stop playing, no leeway, no questions asked.  That is if it's truly a set Stop Loss amount.

Realize that there will be fluctuating Drawdowns at any time prior to winning a decent amount of money or getting a profit, that you had in mind and one that you have to risk on a continual basis. Allow it to be so and you will take off a lot of pressure and a lot of frustration from your frame of mind in handling your money at the table.