QuoteHi all,

alrelax in reply #685:

"...My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted.

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. ..."


re: Ties. Personally, I view them as diluting the strength of what is presenting. Typically, and with no other better intel I treat them as place holders to whatever pattern is recently presenting. For example, if a T shows in the current string as: PBPBT (I would view the T as a continuance of what is happening "P slot" and would wager for B). I will also look at most recent 2-3 Ties just before this event and see if the pattern turned or continued and wager for whatever has been occurring.

Another T method I utilize (and have not confirmed if it is beneficial) is to look at how the two sides approached the Tie and wager on the increasing totals side. For example, let's say Bs recent hand totals were 8,7,6 and Ps recent hand totals were 4,5,6. Then I would wager for P after the T because it was "increasing" as it approached the T.

I would estimate that my success rate is probably near expectation.

Continued Success,

Thinking............Thinking back—I have to bring forward that often a tie designates a struggling side for whatever reason.  However, and a huge however, is that a Tie will allow one additional same side continuing win.  I find this more often true with the larger point value Ties, 7s-8s & 9s than others. 

I do agree with the previous same (same) shoe, what happened after the previous ties came out analogy, etc. 

Ref: " knowing that the 'sky's the limit' attitude is just for losers."

While it's happening, wagers like gangbusters and the cut down and try/wait for another red carpet.

Problem being, most all players wait too long to start wagering or parlaying and as well, keep going way way too long once it's done.

Those are the two largest downfalls, IMO.

QuoteThanks Asymbacguy

I like your paragraph:
"...To beat this game we must 'catch up' the actual more likely card ditribution and ties tend to 'stop' patterns happening so far (number of cards employed to form hands is the answer).
I agree that playing a 'ignoring ties' strategy is a big mistake to make.

A corollary is that shoes forming a lot of 6-card results (no matter how many ties are showing up) will get us harsher situations to look for.
...."

as--Do you utilize any method to try and help guess how many cards(4,5,or 6) are more or less likely to show in next hand.

Thx,

My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted. 

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. 

KFB, great input, thanks,


Alrelax

I highly recommend from the bottom of my heart, the realization of what you are up against.  You will never smack the casino so hard that it actually hurts them!  You have to view each and every session of your play as a one time, brand new event without attempting recourse, revenge or make-up on any of your previous sessions where upon you lost.  It will only cloud your mind, your vision and put huge pressure and unrealistic goals you probably will not be able to meet.  You also have to have a certain amount of buy-in as a one-time event that is realistic as compared to your bankroll and a concrete refusal to buy-in a second time if you happened to lose the original buy-in amount.  That should be considered always 100% of the time, your stop loss figure.  This way when you win and apply something along the lines of my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd application of your win, within my Money Management Method system, your wins will far outnumber your losses, if you are truly playing with discipline and not vengeance.

The whole movement will be worth a heck of a lot less next summer (summer or even earlier than 2023). 

Watch and see. Recession and Devaluation stirred extremely well together, extremely. 

Did I mention extremely?

A long post I wrote, but IMO ultra spot-on.  Bump.

Here.  Having no plan, no realization, no recognition of how or when or what happened, will lead the player to disaster every time.  When the player can figure out the things I wrote about here and realize where the path is and what the curves and junctions mean, within those paths, the player is taking the knowledge and the experience and using it in a 100% pro-active and informational source that will benefit the player if he can only truly understand "Fooled by Reality" and "Fooled by His Own Desire".

First of all, wins are much tougher to handle and manage for most all players versus their losing sessions.

It's not easy to explain all in a thread on most forums, because the post will become lengthy, complex and take all sort of directions.  As well people will dismiss what the whole purpose of the thread is. But I'm going to attempt to put something out there, that I partially wrote about in the past and something that happened recently that's easy to explain.

Just a few days ago at a B&M casino, late at night after a full days work of 12 hours which was following a previous nights short play with a session win. So, I remove my original buy-in and returned to the casino with 'pure' win money having nothing to do with my bank roll or other personal pocket money. Which to me, gives me an extra advantage with deeper and clearer frame-of-mind when I start playing.

Having a complete clear frame-of-mind and a very positive motivational thought in my opinion are huge player advantage avenues. I was willing to risk the 'pure' win money I brought as a buy-in for the session. 

Okay, while playing you better realize plenty!  No matter if you are winning or losing.

How much can I win?
How much am I prepared to lose?
Can I recoup my current losses and get back positive?
I am winning, I don't want to give it back, should I stop?
Thinking, if I stop while winning, I can't win more.

While winning you are in many ways encouraged to continue, by yourself, other persons and even the casino personnel. Be careful and be conscious of EVERYTHING is all I can say, as it will give you 'fake' support. And that normally results in a loss of your winning an additional bankroll monies.

When you begin to lose while winning, it will most likely be more emotional, produce a greater level of frustration, causing you to blackout clear thought process quicker, and hamper your ability to clearly apply knowledge-experience and intuition in deeper amounts than if you did not already win.

When you have no more money, handling it is really no problem, no dilemma, you must quit, PERIOD.  But, winning is really the total opposite.

Anyone that has won sizable amounts at the table runs into a much more difficult decision making process. Play or quit. Countless people continue or stop and start again at another table or casino rather quickly. Doing so usually results in a complete loss of that win money as well as additional monies.

Most people do not subscribe to their own Levels and Plateaus or do they believe in withholding their buy-in and applying their win, to other outside things rather than gaming.  All they see is increased bets, longer play, larger winning, finally realizing they are conquering the game and similar false and very dangerous avenues they plan to adhere to.

All the gobbledygook on the Internet about applying wins to your bank roll, wagering larger and more aggressively is dead wrong. 100% wrong! It will hurt you and hurt you in very big ways.  Gaming, wagering, frame-of-mind and all the many other things that will determine your wins and losses and how you handle them, will not follow with larger bank rolls, larger bets, larger wins, 'type of plan'. At this time I can't put it into exact words but I will tell you, it will play on your decision making process the total opposite way of what you should be thinking and subscribing to.

Myself, I attempt to apply numerous M.M.M. traits, that I have written about. They work well for myself without any doubt. But discipline must still be applied and adhered to.  Which is very possible but not easy. Especially when the wins come and come nicely.

While I was winning the other night, after I doubled my buy-in, I did lose most of my win. Numerous thoughts of stopping were addressed and I went slightly outside of my norm of 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, application of my win money. I did apply my buy-in as current win money, what I normally do not do. But in this case I did it.

I began to win again and really took off with larger and more aggressive wins. I became more aggressive and that paid off nicely, which is generally against the norm and past experiences I might add. I got to the point where I easily won 5 to 6 times the amount of my buy-in. Once again, the thought process was only to play and keep playing. Should I have stopped when I won 5 to 6 times the buy-in amount I was at?  I can not honestly answer that.  After a bit, I once again began to lose, my win level dropped quickly down to the point I quadrupled my buy-in.  I stopped.  To slow myself down, I was actually getting up and texting a member from this forum.  Sending pics of the score board, etc. 

The dilemma i was in, I was very conscious of was, buy-in doubled, lost win and continued playing got me up to 5 to 6 times the buy-in. Lost 1 to 2 times the buy-in. Stop or continue, plenty of 'won' ammunition to possibly get up to double what I had in front of me. Meaning 9 or 10 or 11 times the buy-in or double the four times buy-in and win sitting in front of myself. I wanted to stop, but equally as much, I wanted to continue. I stopped and cashed out.

I could have continued and maybe won a lot more than what I did, but I know of the extreme frustration that could have set in if I continued to lose and I am not a close friend with that kind of frustration.

Frustration is dangerous and frustration makes good/great players do stupid things. Remember that.

I had a nice win. Now at least a week or more without going back. And when I do, it is back to my same Level and Plateau before that win, I am comfortable with and I know I am at. Anything else IMO, experience and knowledge, is not to my advantage in anyway whatsoever.

First of all, Asym—- you and I go way back and you are one of the best (even though I know a tad bit more than you    << Me, << You).

Second of all, your paragraph, "Yeah, gambling is not for everyone, arrogant or abusive people, sober or stoned, should find another hobby.", is spot on.  I have written about a well varied mix of people at the tables and it does influence the majority of all players in one way or another, good and bad, positively and negatively!

Your not going anywhere, just like myself, we are here for a very long time to come. 

Your Comrade and Peer,
Alrelax

As you said:  " 6) The more a side bet is silent higher is the probability to get it along the way.

Without a proper card counting, side bets are not more likely to come out after a period of 'silence'.
Actually it's true the opposite.
Most of the times, we awake about side bets when they come out clustered, before that we simply ignore their possibility to happen.

7) 'I'm doing so bad that I'm starting to play the opposite of what my strategy dictates' or 'I'm doing so good that I'm starting to play the opposite of what my strategy dictates'. 

In most of the cases, it's a fatal error.
We can't know how long a bad or good sequence will come out and the simple countermeasure to adopt is to keep betting when good things happen and not betting when bad things happen.
Stopping to bet after a good sequence happened is very easy, the opposite scenario is way more difficult to manage."

Numbers 6 and 7 to the MAX!

Last night PERFECT EXAMPLES!

I posted notes and shoe pictures.  Side bets galore!!

Profit city

Look at my post #7 in the following thread:

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11423.0

I totally understand, but I learned many years ago, never ever cuss out or talk stuff about a dealer, direct it to the shoe itself.  Everyplace I know, we can cuss at and talk or yell trash to the shoe.  If the dealer does say anything, we make it clear to the floor personnel, we are talking to the shoe.

But I understand.  Thanks, Alrelax

ASYM,

Two thought only.

1). The real deal.

2). Would love to play at same table as we tried earlier in the year but unsuccessful.

Thanks,
Admin/Board Owner
Alrelax

There will be NO posting of links of any type if the member does not have 50 posts. 

I will not tolerate SPAM & UNAPPROVED ADVERTISING of any type on this forum!

If you have over 50 posts, you may post links, etc.  However, if those links are not related to a post and strictly for marketing/sales purposes, I will also prohibit those.  If you choose to sponsor the forum, then we can discuss sponsorship with banners and advertising, etc. 

Respectfully,
Alrelax
Admin & Board Owner

Thanks for your input. IMO and that of others I associate with in person, is a proper Money Management Method with a drawdown that supports your goals, desires and styles, will add huge advantages to your win chances and rock solid win retention if followed.

The understanding of opportunistic wagering as well as emotional indifference  also adds more advantages to the players that choose to do so.

After lengthy play I have kind of came to the conclusion, that sorting things out with one's play (development of a proper M.M.M., goals, desires, styles and beliefs) is too much work.  Better for most to just hit the casino with as much cash as possible, desire to win money, follow the score board and have a dream. 

Think!

Drawdown

The importance of drawdown is extremely large. Do not discount the importance, value or advantage it will allow you to have. As you will lose singular, multiple and numerous wagers in-between your wins, you must have a buy-in large enough to survive the downside you are subject to. And within that buy-in you have your drawdown. 

What Is It?

It is the size of your buy-in with the amount of your wagers you can lose before you begin to capitalize on the game. Simply it affords you the chance(s) to apply your wager preferences and strategies to materialize.

How Do You Plan Your Drawdown?

Naturally the larger the better. At least in most cases. But practicable versus reality, is the case for the highest majority of all players.  You will need to incorporate your drawdown amount with your M.M.M. Your drawdown is not always your initial buy-in. Although I personally favor one buy-in, and the buy-in as a risk capital, the drawdown is virtually the buy-in, within most all cases. If you favor planning for multiple buy-ins rather than a singular one, then your drawdown will be split as well.

As each of us wager differently, flat betting, progressives, etc., You need to generalize your bet sizes and the amount you are comfortable to lose. Then you need to divide the amount of wagers by your comfort level and you will come up with a drawdown amount. Example. You are comfortable losing $4,500. You wager $150 with one time negative progressions occasionally.  You generalize you can lose 12 to 20 wagers before you win a series of wagers you can apply your wins to your M.M.M. for application to a 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, system or something similar. So $150 times 20 equals $3,000 and say 10 negative progressions at $150 each equals  an additional $1,500. So, you need a $4,500 drawdown amount. IMO, you should also have a three times wager of an extra amount and in this case I'll give it my preference of $200 wagers if I had a base wager of $150, for another $600 total.  Add another $600.

EXAMPLE

Base Wagers:  $150.00 X 20 = $3,000.00
Negative Progressions:  $150.00 X 10 = $1,500.00
Extra Wagers:  $200.00 X 3 = $600.00

A $5,100.00 Drawdown would be a very comfortable amount in the hypothetical wagering scenario of $150.00 by a player that engages in some negative progressions as well. 

Control Of Your Game

Do not allow your buy-in, drawdown, etc, to control your game. To a certain extent, your decision making process including your wagering amounts must not be totally controlled by your drawdown size, buy-in balance, etc.

Use your drawdown as a guideline, replace it immediately with your wins and use it if you are less than even money. When you capitalize on your game, apply your every so often cumulative wins to your M.M.M. The rest will work itself out in your advantage, if you are employing a solid M.M.M.

Cumulative Wins

Wins should be maintained sideways from your buy-in/ drawdown amount. As I said, use your sporadic cumulative wins to replace your lost Wagers and begin your other 1/3rd, 1/3rd, set-asides as well. This is Paramount!  That is the most important task you must engage in for proper M.M.M., that will give you a solid advantage to maintain both your win profits and your buy-in.

If you question several different financial experts to define risk and draw down, you will get unclear answers. What you will get is various ramblings of incomplete ideas, attempting to describe variables that might contribute to risk, but not what the risk actually is. Very similar to what systematic gambling writers often write about as well as how casinos and  the industry present the simplistic nature of each game.

So, IMO you must figure it out for yourself according to your style, desires, experience and your goals. Because it is all individualistic to each of us. However, applying a proper M.M.M., Drawdown, and the rest of it what I describe in this posting is not.

Think.  Think hard!

Not Systematic But Opportunistic

Think. Exploiting chances offered by circumstances without reference to statistics or beliefs.

I must expose the ultra importance of extreme advantage a player can give himself if he uses proper drawdown with a reasonable buy-in, in relation to his wager sizes and goals. Gambling for the player is opportunistic.  Period. Gambling for the casino is systematic.  Period.

Every gambler will face countless singular or numerous series of drawdowns, that will lead themselves to seriously question their strategies and beliefs. Learning to recognize them and deal with them positively, will probably be the hardest task each of us face. And, I must add the largest and most harmful performance each gambler faces is emotional disruption to his decision making process, that he inflicts upon himself.

While it is in your best interest to totally remove the emotion out of wagering, it is almost impossible. This is a widely debated and discussed subject for as long as I can remember. However, let's talk frankly, let's discuss the truth at most every gaming table by most every player.

Textbook psychology will dictate if strictly practiced, a player should become as in different to a win as a loss. However, becoming completely detached requires a level of confidence in a players every single game ability, and nothing else. Extremely difficult for most all players to do. But let's be conscious of it and let's work on it and remember it most of all at the gaming table.

Let me define.  The lack of good sense, the foolishness and wishful fake foresight seems to have most every player believing chasing losses is some kind of golden rule of gambling. What am I talking about? Two things. One is repetitive negative progression and the other is, continued wagering to recoup losses.  In other words, increasing your wagers until you win is so erroneous, it is catastrophic in most cases, unless you manage it through proper M.M.M., when you are winning.

Negative progression and continued wagering to recoup losses and begin to win, are perfect examples of gamblers fallacies. But they are employed day after day at most every table that exist in casinos. That is why players lose their winnings if they do not strictly adhere to a proper M.M.M. plan with a 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, division for your wins or something very similar to it. Why? Because two things. One, you will give up a greater percentage of wins and buy-in funds to recover previous losses because the drawdowns will destroy your bankroll that could have been employed making you profits. Two, believing that negative progressions and continued wagering to recoup losses will only lead you to ignoring randomness in your evolution of winning and losing. Even for successful gamblers. How can I state the above? Because I have had countless real experiences as well as research data for it.

What it boils down to is, players dramatically increasing their wagers after generating sizable profits during small/smaller series of wagers. The highest amount of all players lost almost all of it again in a considerable small/short amount of time if they did not subscribe to and adhere to a proper M.M.M. with something similar to my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, division and application of your winnings.

Summation

Be intelligent, understand drawdown, emotional distraction, and opportunistic wagering over systematic beliefs. I will probably look a little bit foolish to say, what happens in winning is partly luck, where cause-and-effect were loosely connected. But it is true. Intelligent players will avoid the temptation of looking at outcomes and assuming they made them happen or knew they were coming. Instead, they will realize how great understanding drawdown, emotional distraction avoidance and opportunistic wagering gave them advantages while religiously capitalizing on the game when the opportunity presented itself.

Reactions based on opportunity. Realize what they are and how to take advantage of them.

I would much rather lose wagers with a positive progression of winnings and expectation; then to win wagers with a negative progression because I was playing repetitive catch up.