Mahomes press conference pretty much told it the way it was, he didn't try to get out of anything.   Said it was his number one game he got beat beat up the worst on in a long time. As well, all of his offense was double and triple covered and Tampa Bay's guys were spot-on, not one doubt about it Tampa Bay performed the way that I thought they would but I thought that KC would have been a tad bit on the more aggressive and positive side and would have completed everything that Mahomes attempted. But even the greatest teams and players at times lose, and this is a perfect example of what happens with great teams and great players and great records......there are losing times.

Doesn't much matter now but what was impressive was all those times where he ran 5-10-15 yards back and then was running out of bounds so he didn't get sacked and he was throwing it while he was in the air on the way down to the ground or the way out of bounds and all the ones were he was off-balance throwing it spot on to a guy in the end zone or near it, and they couldn't catch it.

And you are right, what astronomical odds would anyone have gave a great quarterback not to make a single touchdown in a superbowl game?

Superbowl 55

My prediction. Kansas City 41 Tampa Bay 34.

Hello everyone there will be a chunk of the weekend to get the reinstall done

There WILL be downtime since this is a biggie (upgrading core).

Ideally, we're talking some hours downtime only. We can go live again with the new layout / version & continue modifying it in smaller increments.

This one really fixes/clears a lot of former code (finally!)

Please be patient and no need to p.m. or email, we know we will be off live for a little bit with the process we have to do.

Thanks Alrelax.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2021, 11:30:44 PM
A baccarat shoe is formed by a finite amount of two-card 'states', that is high card situations math  favoring remarkably the side where the highest point will fall at. 



Now we take a step further.
We want to discard some A or B events according to a precise plan. If the game is perfect randomly dealt and/or perfect flawless at any spot, the resulting registration shouldn't be affected by any means, and actually itlr A=B yet.
It remains to assess the very important AB distribution that should be insensitive to our place selection artifice that must confirm the randomness. That is increment steps of A or B. 

A simple combinatorial analysis show that whenever some spots are not included in our chosen data, some patterns are more likely than others. That is we can get a sure edge over the house.
I mean a great edge, not that miserable bj card counting edge.


as.

Asym,

And that is exactly correct, a GREAT EDGE over the house and on your side.

However, almost all players will outdo themselves as this is only possible to achieve when in a certain mind frame. 

There are several different distributions of the cards that can be defined.  But the problem arises most all the time as not holding any pattern or trend whatsoever to follow with or against.  So win one, lose one or win a few and lose a few, etc. 

Players believe they can affect the registrations of the winning or losing hands into their winning wagers.  But in reality they cannot.  The players fuel their own downfall because they believe themselves and their new magical powers they convince themselves they founded at the table.  So, when someone is able to define what caused him to win and that just plays and plays upon themselves until they really do believe they have finally founded the Holy Grail, etc., etc.  even experienced players repeat that exact same scenario, session after session after session after session.  They will not admit it, but an outside person can spot it if you truly take the time to look around the table and watch.     

There are several, probably 4 or 5 registrations (if we are talking the same things) that come about and they are so opposite of each other and so impossible to blanketly predict or expect, etc., a player cannot wager systematically hand after hand, section after section, wager using all of them together and come out ahead.   

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 24, 2021, 11:00:45 PM
Let's compare baccarat with two casino games that have demonstrated to get players an edge.


From one part certain very rare math distributions will favor B or P, but we know this feature isn't exploitable.

Yet, itlr key cards will affect the real outcomes not in the way studied so far (one side should be mathematically more likely than the other one) but in term of gaps probability intervening between two different situations not belonging to B and P.


as.

Asym,

It is exploitable as long as it is happening.

The confusion, frustration and of course the disbelief comes to players when they attempt situation after situation after situation. 

But it is definitely exploitable.  Small sections, sometimes and no rhyme or reasons in so many words as to when those do appear.

"Macau's US casino operators face the very real risk of being used as pawns in the ongoing trade war between China and the United States, with the granting of new casino concessions far from guaranteed according to an expert in foreign affairs.

I think it's quite possible that American casinos will no longer be as welcome in Macau once their current gaming concessions expire in 2022, said Professor Roberts, who is a specialist in US foreign affairs and politics."

https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2021/01/27/china-positioned-to-deliver-slap-on-the-wrist-to-united-states-when-macau-casino-concessions-expire-professor/

Key hands are very deceiving and until fully understood by the person playing and how he interprets what will help him or what might hurt him, it will continue to be a very deceiving advantage that is probably one of the strongest advantages the player can obtain to favor himself.  However, each person must figure out how to interpret what can and cannot be interpreted in comparison to the instant presentments. 

Prior to all the scoreboards being installed which was in the late 90s right around 2000 the highest majority of the players did keep score on a manual scorecard of course but there was a much higher ratio of playing for what was being presented rather than the highest concentration on what has happened in the shoe because of the scoreboard being right there and everyone pointing to it and  most everyone basing their decisions on what has happened rather than what is happening. It is much harder for the new baccarat player to concentrate on the actual presentments rather than the constantly illuminated scoreboard with the many different sections of it being visually overwhelming.

In my opinion the scoreboards are used improperly by the highest majority of the players at the tables.

Over $13 Million "Missing" From South Korean Casino

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2021/01/13-million-missing-south-korean-casino-38534.htm

And yet people never ever learn. The same for casinos but they just use different tactics. The wherewithal and the knowledge of gamblers is totally overwhelmed by their own greed. 

https://www.legalsportsreport.com/47170/nj-sportsbooks-caught-canceling-withdrawals/amp/

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=10793.0

Helping to Define Presentments, Models & Bet Selection Wagering, PART 1

Helping to Define Presentments, Models & BetSelection Wagering, PART 2

Models are nice because they are finite.  Simple.  A model is tangible in so many words.  And yes, that model might have worked, but still, there is no way to define how large and how long anyone needs to sustain himself at a gaming table until that model kicks in and hopefully performs in the same length, shape and longevity as it did on the model that was discovered by its author, etc.  And more times than not, if not all, there will be periods of thousands and thousands of hands presented until those models do present themselves for an unknown and in no way guaranteed length of stay, let alone arrival.

As you said, "There are no wrong or right methods to beat (or not) this game itlr, there are only methods that do work".

Exactly!  So true. 

I remember talking to a very experienced long-time dealer at a large casino not long ago and he primarily deals Baccarat full-time 6 days a week. So naturally he is dealing the cards a lot more than each of us is playing the game. And he really summed it up and I've said some of it before in the past.

Which is what wins on one shoe will lose on the very next shoe or what wins in the current shoe will lose consistently for the following shoes. What wins in the first half of the shoe will lose every single time in the second half of the shoe. What wins within 10 hands will lose within the next ten hands and to everybody's surprise will win again for another 10 hands and then will lose again for the subsequent ten hands.

And then he goes on to talk about dealers.  Somebody has winning sessions with one dealer repetitively that same person will have losing sessions with eventually and blame the dealer for it, all the while other people are winning with the same dealer, that person was losing with.

And then he went on to casinos, citing how some players swear up and down that they can win at one casino when they cannot win at another casino. Then he went on to days of the week, where players will swear up and down they can win on certain days of the week as well as certain times of the day or the night and lose at other times. He cited a lot more examples but you get the point.

As you said, "Our datasets show that dissecting the shoe into an average number of 4 or 5 key situations will make the highest player's edge. Yet remember that not every shoe is playable".  And I have posted extensively about Sections.  I have found that proper use of Sections to be an advantage many times. 

There is most certainly winning and losing times and I've talked about that in my own posts referencing such things as Sections and Plateaus. 

No matter how a person links the wins and the losses to the numbers, the cards, to people playing, the dealers, the casinos, the time of day or night, the color of his chips, the seat number, or any one of another 20 or 30 factors the bottom line will always be the same. And that is something will be related to wins for short sections of time, but will not consistently hold true shoe after shoe, day after day, month after month, from casino to casino. And that is 100% fact.

Intro & Part 1

Your subconscious mind determines where you will go in most all situations.

Your conscious mind attempts to deal with your immediate and minute-to-minute decisions as well as adjust with some type of realization, attempting to deal with or provide you excuses after the fact.

Fear takes over and causes so much of the loss at the gaming tables and most players have no idea why the fear actually sets in and it has to do with primarily your subconscious mind frame and reservoir that stores the subconscious.

The basis of your decision making process at gaming is actually contained within your subconscious mind which so many of us have no idea about.

There is actually a block between your subconscious and your conscious minds. You have to remove the block in order to be successful at gaming.

What you have to realize and deal with is your conscious mind is 99% unaware of the subconscious and what the subconscious will produce and make your agenda.

But the subconscious mind overwhelms most decisions made or about to be made by the conscious mind. In other words and in reality, you are self-defeating yourself the highest majority of the times. And when frustration and anxiety along with emotions set in, that will be most likely be 100% of the time. This is what needs to be addressed, not how to follow the last decision or not follow the last decision or follow the chop chop or follow the streak or follow the person winning at the table or bet opposite the person losing at the table or only bet a certain amount of your buy-in and all that other garbage that is written on the internet.

You have to understand your conscious mind contains all of the thoughts, feelings, and wishes of which we are all holding at any given moment. The unconscious mind is a genuine reservoir of your thoughts feelings memories and urges that are outside of your conscious awareness. No matter if they're positive or negative.  However the negative will generally be produced and held much longer than the positive experiences within the subconscious reservoir and that is what makes it so dangerous especially at the gaming tables.

Your conscious mind commands you and generally directs your decision making process in real time. Stay with me here please. Your subconscious mind obeys. Your subconscious mind is your unquestioning servant that is working day and night to make your behavior fit into and with your emotional thoughts, hopes, and desires. All of your habits of thinking and acting are stored in your subconscious mind. And again this is what makes it so dangerous at the gaming table for your decision making process because of the influence that you cannot control and in most cases don't even know about.

Once activated your subconscious goals, choices, and actions persist until met. That is exactly the reason for continued wagering at the tables once the wins are capitalized on as well as continued wagering when experiencing continued losses.

It is not as easy as saying, "I will do this or that" or "I will prime my subconscious and be aware of it all the time" or "I'm only going to follow my conscious mind", etc., etc., etc.

Your subconscious includes feelings, hidden memories, habits, thoughts, desires, and reactions. Memories and emotions that are painful, embarrassing, shameful and of the likes are all stored within your subconscious and will influence your  behavior and real-time decision making process, both heavily and continually.

Now maybe you can start to realize why each of us experience conflict within our decision-making process at the tables and how our frustration builds after losses as well as failing to capitalize on winning bets and sections with larger wins that we actually either had an advantage and seen somehow, or just felt very confident were going to come about and they did.

There are things a table game player can do to combat the levels of your mind and access your subconscious and develop roles that will give you a better advantage in your decision-making process.

More to come in detail within my next post about Levels and Roles.

Thanks for reading and stay safe!

Macau casinos ended their worst year on record with little sign of progress in a recovery, though hopes remain for a rebound in the world?s largest gambling hub later in 2021.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-01/macau-casinos-end-their-worst-year-with-little-sign-of-recovery

The plan is we'll be making small incremental upgrades instead of a big disruptive one.

This way we can try a bit, roll back easily, update on good result & fix things.

Do feel free to use the forum.

As well, to everyone Happy New Year and hopefully 2021 is a great year for all!!

Cannot envision that happening again.