As ASYM said in the post above:
"Baccarat is not a game of math results, baccarat is a game of card distributions favoring this or that."

I add:

Exactly.  And once a player is well acclimated with the game of baccarat, he can generally find that those very distributions are contained within Sections.

Problem continually arising is the change of the presentments or the extended continuance no one believes is actually happening. 

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on July 04, 2021, 11:07:01 PM
Hint: streaks of any lenght are going to our favor no matter what and for that matter most part of chopping situations or short patterns will go to our favor too.
It's a strict math based evaluation plan challenging sym spots vs asym spots.

as.

Certain things will happen and will not happen, no matter what. 

If its being presented, wager on it.  If not, don't  wager on it. 

There is a huge difference in what I am saying versus trying to change the presentments. 

Alrelax

And summarizing in layman's terms/actual brick and mortar casino players results, the drawdown will kill most players buy-ins and/or bankrolls before their opportunities are presented for those 'spots' you so technically define in the above post.

Please do not take it the wrong way, I'm not criticizing your writing and your comments, I'm just making an observation to stress the drawdown, the patience required, the frame of mind and everything else that is mandatory in trying to catch all of this, which I've learned over the years.

However as I talked about and write about there are opportunities and entrance points that I repeatedly remind everybody of, called SECTIONS WITHIN SECTIONS and the key to really profiting and preserving your bankroll and minimizing risk with your buy ins, is being extremely conscious and remaining neutral in your frame-of--mind when you are playing. Not easy to do, not at all.

Quote from: KungFuBac on June 23, 2021, 06:09:07 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy--good thread/ post.

Your sentence:
"... An average card distribution will more likely produce clustering win situations. The more we are considering winning clusters by strict parameters, higher will be the probability to win.  ..."

Can you clarify the phrase in bold? or give an example. thx



Continued Success,

"For that matter, many high end casinos know very well the baccarat vulnerability, they'll simply hope that players like to get huge winnings within too short intervals or liking to wager the insourmountable negative edge apllied to side bets.

Simple back to back outcomes and complex back to back outcomes"



My Response:

I've tried to detail it out and show pictures of it and mark up scoring boards repetitively. What I entitled and discussed; SECTIONS WITHIN SECTIONS. Small sections can be extremely profitable however, it will play with our minds and we (generally) attempt/try to keep following and not cash out or go back to a neutral position, which we MUST do to be extremely profitable.

It all boils down to, our frame-of-mind.

ALRELAX

 

Happy Father's Day to all with kids.

Stay safe and be well.

Always, Alrelax
Administrator/Board Owner

Just signed on, looks great!   

A  Section

The Power of a Section

It does not do anything for you to figure out what the shoe is going to present, if you do not wager on it. What so many write about, what so many advise people about and how to wager after so many 'no bet' losses or wins, etc. All that will do is add stress, pressure, frustration and most of all--false sense of confidence to your game.

Waiting to wager for a certain trigger or event to come about with live chips will only confuse you.  Do not do it, in my opinion.

What I see at the tables are the highest majority of the players attempting to figure out what is going to occur because of what has happened and why it cannot continue rather than what is happening and capitalizing on it.  And the most successful way that I have found is extremely aggressive within small sections of a shoe, which I define a shoe to have 3 to 5 sections normally. 

Those are two distinct and very key series of events within a section. Once you figure it out and understand the difference, you might be able to see which is better to wager on, what you want to happen or what is happening. Outside of a section, they do not continue or repeat themselves with any type repetitive presentments.

Once again we will be going down for a few days this week, May 17th, to make the conversion back to a mobile-friendly website now that we have the bugs worked out of it.

Thanks for your patience, Alrelax, Admin and Board Owner.

Most everyone is always looking at what to bet in a repeating or scheduled automatic mode. In other words when something happens then I will bet, etc.  I got news for you, it will never work out in your favor on a regular basis, shoe after shoe, session after session, never ever, not even the highest percentage of the times. And that right there is most people's downfall---100%!

Winning hand after hand, catching the streaks, catching the chops, catching the cuts, catching the doubles, catching anything repeating in any way. Two different and distinct things/events.  Trying to find that system or that trigger that can always be employed in the long-term is exactly what the casino wants you to do therefore the last twenty years they've put plenty of scoreboards and still supply everybody with cards and pens and anything else they can think of, to keep the school of thought going if you keep score you can make money.

So the thing that I don't understand is, why so many people are wagering for what they want it to be rather than wagering for what it is?

Most everyone is missing what is really important about the game including bankrolls and buy-ins and money management methods that truly manage your money if you win.

There are no absolutes, none. And so many players will be completely oblivious to that fact at the table. Maybe off the table they know and recognize it, but on the live table with real money they do not. Besides no absolutes at table as to what will happen, another huge downfall and contributor on the shoulders of players are the following two items:

1)  The stop loss and stop win thinking most all make or seek out what will be to their advantage. But for numerous reasons winds up backfiring and hurting them.

2)  Buy in and Bank Roll. You need to view your buy-in as risk capital, same as any business--inventory investment, time without sales, tangible losses mounting, unplanned for expenses, clients not paying, unexpected rises in expenses, all kinds of things. Your buy-in should be only a portion of your bankroll. Only one buy-in per session, if you win you employ money management methods and continue with the money management methods defining your session length as well as what is available for wagering and the style of your wagering.

Stop loss and stop win set numbers will almost always be a cause of emotional and psychological negativity to whatever it is you are attempting to grind out or you have already won.

Nobody's approach is true gospel to every session for a positive turn out or the ability to recover losses.

Ice is cold to the touch. Always has been and always will be, will never change. Do a 10 million dollar study and extensive research for years and years. It will not change. The same as the randomness, the great amount of uncountable reasons that variance and unknown presentments will always come out of that baccarat shoe, forever and ever.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BHPM83AMBmg

Here is what a certain circle of those Full-time Forum Fighters, as they've been labeled by another member calls them say:

"I don't read all of your long-winded postings I do admit".  And then they go into the explanation which is kind of long-winded itself most of the time, explaining how they only read the first few sentences and the last few sentences of many member's posts and how they've labeled them "fake---erroneous---trolls---", etc., etc,, so on and so forth and then they also will add, they're full of "..........".

And I guess the kicker to myself is they continuously will follow that person that they so greatly belittled and humiliated in order to boast themselves amongst their own circle of friends, which of course are the Full-time Forum Fighters as they've been labeled.  Then they will follow them continuously and post and repost and repost against the people that they obviously so vehemently disagree with, called out and detest. 

Personally if I don't find someone interesting or I cannot see anything in their subject matter that will add to my knowledge, experience or interest factors, I skip them the next time I see their name or their material. I don't care if it's on an internet Forum or any other type of media. You know same thing with television shows, why would you waste your valuable time with something that you disagree with, doesn't do anything for you, you labeled as worthless and you have no interest in?  Seriously dude!

I've said it before and I haven't said it for a while, but I'm going to say it again. I wonder if those people go into a Barnes & Noble with a notepad and pen and start looking at countless books on a Saturday or Sunday and the ones that they don't like or agree with, they copy down the author's name and the publisher's name and address then they start writing letters and emails with complaints about the subject in the books and the author?

Because you know in all essence it is damn near the same thing!  Gotta absolutely love the Full-time Forum Fighters!

Series: Learning to wager to favor yourself

DRAWDOWN

Drawdown.  What is it?  It is technically the amount of money you lose before you start drawing a profit from your buy-in.

First.  When does it occur? It can be in the very beginning of your session or can equally be at the end when you are on your last few wagers before exhausting your buyin. It can be anywhere in the middle as well.

Second.  In my opinion should be calculated with only the amount in front of you. Not collectively from prior sessions or running tallies, etc.  Just concentrate in front of you and don't cloud your concentration or add to your frustration levels.

Third.  Again in my opinion the drawdown must not be viewed and compared to previous drawdowns. The presentments of each and every shoe are different and there is no reason to compare. You have to remember drawdowns fluctuate and will always fluctuate, no rhyme no reason, to define and attempt to figure out when it's going to happen or how come it happens will only cloud your thought process and frame of mind.

Fourth.  Emotions, pressure and other feelings will be triggered within yourself that will not and cannot be avoided. The larger the drawdown the greater and more intense those inner feelings will be. Be ultra conscious of that. If you are, you will be curtailing getting sucked in. Once you get sucked in, you will pretty much lose your buy-in for that session.

Fifth.  Don't confuse drawdown with stop loss. Many will fail to see the difference but there really is. Drawdown is an undetermined and unplanned amount of money that will be lost before you realize a profit that is within your horizon of, 'winning the session and it is time for me to stop', thought and belief you religiously and wholeheartedly subscribe to that governs how you play. Stop loss is simply a set amount of money if you lose out of a buy-in, you will stop playing, no leeway and no questions. Stop loss is not figured into your playing protocol, while drawdown has to be viewed that way and planned for.  Because what you are actually doing if you do include drawdown into your buyin and protocol of playing, is you are combating great negativity that affects every player.

Remember:

It might not always be smooth.....no loss and repetitive winning.....

Just make it as painless and non-destructive as possible. Winners do lose.

Be smart.  Be totally conscious.  Stay in reality.  Realize what the game is and what can help you win.

How and when you win is for the most part up to you. Likewise how much you lose, is for the most part also up to you.

Quote from: KungFuBac on May 03, 2021, 07:26:44 PM
Hi Alrelax--thx for posting. We are looking forward to the play-by-play.
Did you continue playing after Section C? If so how did u wager? And if u did indeed wager Post-Sect C did u wager the same in (D) as u did in (C). Many thx.

I will post everything I need a few hours to write it and I will post as much play-by-play as I can recall which is most of it and what's unique about the shoe is there are definitive turning points that I can point out that we truly felt and that we were spot on numerous times and it reinforces a lot of what I have talked about in the past.


Cheers,kfb

Picture #1

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Picture #2

[attachimg=2]

Picture #3

[attachimg=3]

Picture #4

[attachimg=4]

Wanted to download the pictures real quick and I will get to writing out what happened in a couple of days.   I'll give you my notes, this was a super fantastic shoe classic everything but everything contradicted each other from section A to section B to section C andcto section D. The randomness was drastic but it was very predictable in many ways, if you kept an open mind frame which most players do not do because they base what they bet on what they have seen or what they have not seen. In other words they want the shoe to meet their expectations not the other way around.

Will post details later.

The easy cleanup was in Section C and then in D.  In Section D,  2 F7s and the group of 4 Ties that were 2 natural 9-9 ties, 1 three card 9-9 tie and a 2 card player 7 to 2 card 0 banker with a 3rd card flop of a 7 for a tie, the hand before the 4th F7.

Quote from: KungFuBac on April 26, 2021, 03:47:25 AM
Hi Alrelax

re: your sentence  "...Except player will and does have a better chance to form more clumps and runs then Banker does..."

Can you give an example of what u mean by clumps. For example are you referencing outcomes such as : PPPbPPPbPPPP for a (10-2) P-dom clump?? or say: PPPPPPP b PPPPPPPP ,...etc where two long runs are back-to-back,   or are you referring to something else ?  None of the above?

Thx in advance

2s, 3s and 4s close together with single Bankers, maybe token double banker stuck in as well.  Could be longer than 4s, no restrictions on length, just telling you what I see most of the time.