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Messages - alrelax

#781
This morning the transaction was announced.

25 million dollars has to be to buy of the century in my opinion for this property on the boardwalk. Yes it was older and needs some renovation.   I know the property well but with a little bit of money, it can be a Premier Property once again on the boardwalk, when the business comes back. Never thought I'd see something sold for 25 million dollars with this kind of value
.

https://www.hotelbusiness.com/twin-river-acquires-ballys-atlantic-city-other-resort-casinos/
#782
A little bit about the re-opening of casinos or should I say, the attempted re-opening of them?:

"While casinos are not included in phase one of reopening the state, Sisolak says the Gaming Control Board will ultimately sign off on any casino reopening plan. Wynn Las Vegas already revealed a plan for reopening the resort and hoped that those protocols could be implemented in mid- to late May.

Sisolak will update his previous directives to reflect his plans later this week."


https://vegas.eater.com/2020/4/21/21230544/nevada-governor-plan-reopen-nevada-covid-19-cases-dropping-coronavirus-pandemic
#783
So is it safe to say that most of the Asian restaurants over west of the I-15 on Spring Mountain are closed?

Anyway, here it is from the other day:


https://vegas.eater.com/2020/4/22/21231752/las-vegas-mayor-carolyn-goodman-cnn-anderson-cooper-reopen-casinos
#785
I am certain it would have been tournament chips, 'No Cash Value' chips, etc.  Sentence number 17 will expose that fact.  ".........Before tournament play commences..........."

I believe the $22,500.00 referenced was the money it cost him to qualify/get the points required to be allowed to participate in the tournament.

Supposedly from my understanding he qualified with the proper points accumulated through the hours played, etc.  Then he was denied the tournament spot.

I was focusing on the article from the standpoint as to how today's Bac players allow the casinos to change all the rules into the properties favor since 2005ish.  Several casinos in the Midwest attempt to use auto shufflers with those new automatic card value readers, etc.  The players would not have it.  All the players got together and after 2 weekend of empty Bac tables, the casino removed those auto readers.  That is just one example. 

But the cash the guy lost in the referenced article, would have been the out-of-pocket money it cost him to qualify. 



#786
I have written about baccarat tournaments in the past.  Everything since around the beginning of the removal of the big table bac (the 14 seat players 2 sided tables with the 3 dealers and the players dealing the shoe, etc.) has changed for the favor of the casino.  All of this started in the early 2000s and really picked up speed to curtail and change it all in favor of the casino probably around 2007 to 2010 or so. 

Attached is a claim against the Venetian in Las Vegas regarding one of their baccarat tournaments.  I will not comment of the validity of it or the plaintiffs merits cited within.  However, I will about the tournaments and how they have changed.  This all happened just prior to and along side of the entire comp/points awarding issue al changing for the casinos favor also, which was right around the same time and extending up to 2014/2015 or so. 

Back to tournaments.   Prior to what I mentioned above the way tournaments were handled were no-charge to the player.  Simply an invite status based upon their hosts and their play records, points.  There were no entrance fees and if there were, those would have been at some of the smaller casinos outside of the larger gaming jurisdictions. From the mid 80's, through the entire 90's and the early 2000's I never seen an entrance fee or anything of the likes of today with qualifying with points, etc., etc.  It was strictly an invite, upon arrival the player always was given a nice gift of some type, like Baccarat Crystal or other worthwhile items, a private buffet set-up in a near-by convention room just for the baccarat players with an absolute over-the-top assortment of foods.  The gift always having a value of $300.00 to the $600.00 range easily, if not greater. There also was never a required play demanded prior to the tournament itself.   

Most of the tournaments were a "Winner Take All", or if not that they were awarding the cash prizes to the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place winners.  Then after a while, probably the latter part of the 90's even into the early 2000s, instead of cash prizes came the awarding of promotional chips in place of the cash.  Still okay, not as good but decent.  Those promotion chips were usually lay until you lost the promo chip hands you were wagering.  Not one time use chips lke so many casinos have today.  Another change that enormously favors the casino.

IMO, this claim is right up to par with the Venetian and its Hosts/Marketing Department.  I went there many times when they first opened around 2000 up to 2005 or so.  Each time their Hosts became more and more skimpy with their comps as well as sitting down with the player after the visit and scrutinizing every aspect of his play, etc.  Compared to the other properties, a huge difference in comping RFB&I, etc.

The Overview of the Claim:

https://www.courthousenews.com/the-venetian-runs-a-crooked-game-baccarat-player-says/

The Court Filed Compliant:

http://files.courthousenews.com/2007/10/22/Markowiak.pdf
#787
So many people, I am certain to say the clear majority of players, do not understand the game of baccarat and at the same time are unwilling to make trade offs regarding the actual presentments the shoe is producing. 

A blanket policy or schedule of pre-set wagering is detrimental to winning the majority of your hands.  The presentments of the bac shoe will never match what you desire or want it to produce, except on a rare occasion.

Once you gain an understanding of events, the numbers, the Sections of a shoe, and the numerous other items that are present throughout a typical bac shoe, you can win nicely with positive progressions never risking anything more than a flat bet unit.  You must recognize false positives to keep any winning going.  As well, you must have an absolute understanding as well as control of your emotions. And thus, that is where a good Money Management Method will be your best partner and your best chance.

Reality and Fallacies of Money Management Methods

M.M.M.'s are probably the most important thing a player must be conscious of during play, master the use of and consistently use throughout his sessions.  Without the use of a M.M.M. that suits the player, the player will only be guided by his desires, his emotions and the rest of the players and people present.  The latter will be a disaster to the player more than it helps him and that has been proven over and over again, countless times. 

M.M.M.'s must be pivotal.  Very important!  They must adjust to your play with the winning or losing you are experiencing, NOT DESIRING.  You will automatically adjust by adhering to the M.M.M.  And that is where most players go wrong with their M.M.M. or their understanding of one.

M.M.M. is procedure, not scheduling of what to wager.  Do not confuse it with Bet Selection.

M.M.M. will allow you the ability to keep winning while you set aside certain portions of those wins.

M.M.M. will allow you to cash out your wins without giving it all back and falling prey to the casino, when you lose a certain amount, if you follow a proper M.M.M.




#789
Math & Statistics / Re: Statistical Strangeness
April 20, 2020, 04:44:45 PM
I was not looking at the article reference C-19, etc.

I thought there was a nice comparison on how something might or might not be applied and as well, where the event comes from and why.  Things most all do not even think about when it comes to:

Statistics
Paradoxes
Fallacy
Probability


Thanks, Alrelax

#790
Math & Statistics / Statistical Strangeness
April 20, 2020, 03:31:04 PM
"Nowadays, researchers can access a wealth of software packages that can readily analyse data and output the results of complex statistical tests. While these are powerful resources, they also open the door to people without a full statistical understanding to misunderstand some of the subtleties within a dataset and to draw wildly incorrect conclusions.

Here are a few common statistical fallacies and paradoxes and how they can lead to results that are counterintuitive and, in many cases, simply wrong."



https://getpocket.com/explore/item/paradoxes-of-probability-and-other-statistical-strangeness?utm_source=pocket-newtab
#791
You can say it is not a problem or a concern, but it is a fact of what is happening in the highest majority of casinos where the losing customer is sought out by his/her instantly available 'credit line advance'.

"According to the PNP-AKG, Chinese nationals look for gamblers losing big in Manila casinos. Agents approach the target and offer to lend them casino chips in exchange for the individual signing a promissory note. The victim is often required to surrender their passport at this stage.

If the victim wins, the lender requires a 20-30 percent cut of the money. If the victim loses and cannot pay the loan, he is detained in a nearby hotel, where they're often beaten and tortured on camera, images then sent to his family."


"Lim, who was a Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGO) employee, reportedly went to the casino with a friend to gamble last Monday. After losing much money, the Chinese suspects allegedly offered to lend him P500,000 worth of casino chips in exchange for 20 percent of his winnings.

The victim also lost that money and this led to his alleged kidnapping. The suspects reportedly told him to contact his family in Malaysia to pay his ransom."

"Once victims lose anew, they would be abducted and the syndicate will demand their relatives to pay a huge sum of money. The group would even go to the extent of filming the victims while being tortured to force their relatives to pay".


https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1095017

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/06/19/malaysian-rescued-3-chinese-arrested-in-another-casino-linked-kidnapping

https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1825039
#795
On-Line Gambling versus Practice Only, Same Website

My friend did a test over the past few weeks, to be exact the past 16 days he said.  He ran the same wagers for 64 sessions of 3 things:

1)   Practice on-line with Free Wager game only, without using the free chips;
2)   Practice on-line with Free Wager game with the free practice chips in play;
3)   Real money on the website game.

  #1 and #2 are different.  I already talked to several people about this and it sure took a lot of explaining!  Why?  I do not know why it was so hard to understand, but like most things people either do not want to believe or have reason to ignore, it makes it that much tougher for them to grasp.  But there is a huge difference.  Please understand. 

He used the exact same amount of wagers as well as the exact same units for each and every wager.  He varied his wagers at times, following patterns as well as the total opposite.  But, he always did the exact same thing, for the exact same amount of hands and in the exact same order.  He also clearly used series of alternating wagers.  Again, all wagers were the exact same for all three types as listed above and for every single shoe.  He wagered exactly 25 hands per shoe with four shoes of each type.  All three types were with the same website. 

He won a total of 390 units with Type #1
He won a total of 2,840 units with Type #2
He lost a total of 355 units with Type #3

Lets talk about #3 first.  I will not assume or claim that the website monitors any of its on-line wagers and rigs anything.  I would have to have him conduct at least 50 of these to get that assumption.  While I do not gamble on-line, I have talked with many people that have.  Some do win, while numerous people do loose.  Some of those that do loose, I know they are very conservative gamblers and very short session length players.  What they do on-line, I am not witness to.  I just know what they tell me.

Now #1 and #2.  I have done both on-line and at the same website my friend did the above test.  I have clearly noticed over the years, that I have been able to easily win on their practice Bac game.  I mean, without keeping stats myself, I would assume I win at least 75-80% easily of my practice sessions using the Type #2, with the free chips producing a running total, etc.  I have lost considerably lost more of the Type #1 games in comparison to the Type #2 games as well.  Again, I have never played for money on-line, so I cannot comment with any personal experiences regarding that.

I do know with the amount I have played at practice on the websites, I am pretty confident that they slant it towards the player/consumer, to entice him into playing for real money on their site.  I will not go so far as to say, that they cheat or rig their real money games in favor of the website/casino, but I am pretty sure that the ratios of the consumers win on the practice types without real money are higher than that of the real money Bac games. 

And after all, it would not be illegal by any means to rig a free game towards the consumer/player would it?  Be careful with the on-line stuff, even believing what you are calculating with their free games. 

Personally I would not use their free chips for those of them that offer an option to play betting free chips versus just running the hands and watching.  If you do the latter, just run the hands and watch and keep notes, you will see you might just win more when you do wager with their free chips, which would be completely contrary the reality of the game.