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Topics - AsymBacGuy

#26
AsymBacGuy / The key asymmetrical factor
September 25, 2015, 11:45:45 PM
Normally we consider baccarat outcomes just in form of BP hands (I omit Ties for simplicity)

There are many ways to register BP results.
Asian players like to place BP results in orizontal lines whereas european players tend to utilize a vertical registration.
Then there are many "complex" forms of classification (for reference see WOO site) and naturally no one will give profitable betting spots to the player.

Every classification will act as an "on-off" pc work. We either register B or P. Period.
I mean nobody cares about HOW such opposite results have come out.

Since I strongly think the game is beatable for its asymmetrical nature, let's try to concentrate more about this important topic.

To get an asymmetrical hand (AS), a hand capable to mathematically shift the 50/50 results, some conditions must be fulfilled. Then we should consider the actual outcomes of every AS hand per any single shoe.

A. Player side must draw

B. Banker side must have 3, 4, 5 or 6 point.

We know that on average this situation comes about 8.6% of the times.

For every AS situation produced, Banker side will get a 15.7% mathematical (on average) edge.

That means that after any AS hand, on average Banker will win 57.85% of the times and Player the remaining 42.15%.

Besides what some magic system sellers j.erks have stated claiming a 70% or more edge for the player by unkown reasons, the best mathematical undeniabale average edge a baccarat player could have is right based upon this 57.85-42.15 proposition decurted by the B tax.

That is a player capable to bet Banker side only or mostly when an AS hand wil take place will destroy the game.

The rest, mathematically speaking, is a totally worthless speculation.


Average apparition of an AS hand per any single shoe.

Assuming 70 BP decisions per any shoe, on average we'll expect to get an AS situation nearly one time over 8.14 hands.

Obviously, per every single shoe this ratio almost never will fit this ratio, as any card distribution will produce countless combinations.

For example, when Banker shows a lot of 3,4,5 or 6 points and Player simultaneously won't draw (6,7,8 or 9) no AS hand could arise and the same happens whenever Player must draw having the Banker a 0, 1, 2, 7, 8 or 9 point.

So a separated registration of those two A and B conditions' apparition will make a very different scheme differently than a mere BP registration. And that's just the first step.

Summary of the first step.

Player will draw an average of 50.3% of the times and that is the first condition to get an AS hand, so this situation will mostly follow a 50/50 proposition, yet understanding that bac is a dependent card game; at the same time to have an AS hand first condition fulfilled, Banker must have a 3, 4, 5 or 6 point and such event will happen less probably than the opposite bunch of B outcomes including 0,1,2,7,8 and 9 points knowing that 0 will be the most likely outcome over any other possible result by a multiplied 1.5 value.

Thus and independently of the P draw/no draw situation, on the B side we'll get the AS probability of 1,1,1,1 vs the opposite probability of 1,1,1,1.1, 1.5. Wholly considered the ratio is 4/6.5.

In a word, to get an AS hand any card distribution must precisely intersect a 50.3% average P probability spot with a 38% average B probability.

Since baccarat is a finite and card dependent process game, we could get some help studying certain statistical deviations.

Next time I'll talk about the second step, that is the AS actual outcomes acting per every shoe. 

as.





   











   




 



 

   
 




 

 

 











         
#27
AsymBacGuy / Baccarat mathematical facts
September 25, 2015, 02:25:27 AM
Here's some baccarat mathematical situations. 

- Player hand draws the third card: 50.3%

So any careful and very long peeking of the P cards will get no good news half of the times, no matter how the player is concentrated in doing this.
Worst news for them is peeking up a "three side" card when having a 4 or a 5. Among other scenarios, a nightmare for us it's when those legendary peekers find a three side card having a 3 point.     


- Both sides stand: 37.8%

Almost four times over ten the action is freezed just on the first four cards.
So in such situations there should be no point to bet Banker. Unfortunately we know this after it happened. 


- Natural point on either side: 34.2%

Again more than 1/3 of the deck will provide immediate and perfectly symmetrical outcomes. In this circumstance there's either one fantastic bet or a very poor one. Coincidentally we tend to win most of our bets by a natural point when betting Banker and regularly losing with an 8 when wagering Player. Naturally, whenever we win by a Player 9, we won't care a bit about the point landed on Banker that quite often is a losing 8. A pure form of selected attention.
   

- Banker draws no matter what: 43.4%

Despite its advantage when betting Banker we'll expect to draw and hope for the best more than four times over ten. Better than 50.3% of the time, still an high percentage.


- Banker draws after Player stands: 11.8%

Good news for Banker aficionados. They know to go uphill just a bit more than one time over ten hands.


- Banker stands after Player draws: 18.7%

Again no bad news for Banker fans. Almost one time over five they could rely just upon the strenght of the very two first cards dealt.


- Both hand draw: 31.6%

For thrilling hand lovers: a slight less than 1/3 of the time the final decision will be made by two additional cards.
An awful situation when there are two active bets on either side made by eternity flashing the cards players.
For unknown reasons, when we're losing at the table not having the privilege to look at cards it happens more often. 


- Player disadvantage: 0.18%

Player fans minds have transformed 0.18% into 0%. At worst, of course.


- Asymmetrical hand apparition: 8.6%

Well, Banker lovers should know that the best situation they could hope for will come out quite less than one time over ten.


-  Banker advantage in asymmetrical situations: 15.7%

Strangely enough, such huge edge will be regularly disappointed when we make an important bet on B side. Thus, a zero point on Player chance will magically transform into an 8 or a 9, even if there were just one or two of those cards left in the deck.
Likewise a fantastic 3 will invariably land on a 5, Banker showing a 7; not mentioning a 4 adding to another 4 when Banker has a 4 + 3 and 31 4s where already removed from the deck.
The power of timing.

as.     


   

       

 

 
#28
AsymBacGuy / First and fifth card
August 21, 2015, 10:46:55 PM
Knowing the value of just one card in the exact position (from 1 to 6) could get us a mathematical edge in most cases, we might set up a betting plan.
The largest edges will come out when:

- the first card is a 9 dealt to the Player (21.528%)
- the second card is a 9 dealt to the Banker (20.641%)
- the fifth card is a 4 dealt to the Player (18.316%)
- the first card is an 8 dealt to the Player (17.294%)
- the second card is an 8 dealt to the Banker (16.493%)
- the sixth card is a 5 dealt to the Banker (14.514%)
- the sixth card is a 6 dealt to the Banker (14.424%)

Thus if we were able to get such aknowledge, we'll easily destroy the game itlr.

Unfortunately we cannot benefit of those situations.

Since we are stubbornly oriented to beat the game we want to try whether the statistical approach might help us.
After all baccarat is a finite and dependent process game.

To simplify the process, we'll register the times when a 9 or an 8 is dealt as first card to the Player side and the times when the fifth card is a 4, those situations having the highest ROI on P side.
There are many reasons to just consider the P side.

It's easy to notice that the very first card dealt will have a higher impact on every bac hand than every other position as many hands will end up after just 4 cards have been dealt. Surely the second same value card dealt on the other side will show a more or less impact similar to the first card, but most of the times we'll have to pay an unnecessary 5% vig on our winning wagers.

In a word, a very deviated situation where 9s, 8s will not fall in the first spot and 4s will not fall in the 5th spot, should entice a RTM effect where next P hands will show a slight player's edge.

Of course, there's an additional issue to consider: how many 9s, 8s and 4s are really live in the left deck.

We cannot hope to get a 4 falling into the 5th spot if many 4s were removed from the deck in the right or more likely "wrong" spots.

The same about the most likely cards capable to end up right now a bac decision: 8s and 9s.

The most part of 2.5 and 3 sr deviations taken are going to get a higher RTM effect than the propensity to reach larger deviations, expecially if we are properly considering the card removal effect per any shoe.

In this perspective, we aren't playing to get some P or B winning hands, we are betting that a given card (or better a bunch of such cards) will have to fall in a given spot after a very large absence and after having assessed that such key cards are very live per any live deck. (So many shoes won't provide any hint).

as.



       
















 










 










 









   



 

 



     
#29
Baccarat Forum / What strategy if we must win?
July 25, 2015, 12:23:44 AM
I wish to hear your comments about this simple situation a friend of mine asked me.

Let's suppose you really need $500 just playing baccarat (no other extra money earnings allowed) having our last $5000 bankroll and 3 days to play (24/7).

The tables minimum limit is $25.

We know that the best mathematical expectancy of being ahead of $500 will be the choice of betting $525 on Banker side right on our first bet, but we rule out such possibility from the options.

Which one or more than one of the following factors would you attribute the most importance to reach the goal?

- Table selection (shoe general texture, hand made shuffling vs machine shuffling, speed of the game, etc)

- "Small" standard bet strategy trying to control the disbursement and hoping to get a multiple winning outcome soon or later. 

- "Moderate" standard bet strategy trying to control the variance and to shorten the EV- game periods.

- "High" standard bet strategy oriented to reduce the EV- impact hoping for the best in short intervals.   

- Money management (parlays and negative aggressive martingales included)

- Preordered subjective betting selection (no use of possible objective long term winning findings)

- Trend following strategy

- "Lucky" players following strategy

- Other


I'd like to know your opinions not forgetting that the scenario will be all about the absolute urgency to win $500 not affording to lose your last $5000 bankroll.

as.   























 
#30
Whenever we test a given method we could experience the illusion to have discovered the miracle betting mood to get the best of it itlr. Meaning we get an edge over the house. Meaning we can invert the house negative edge into a positive one.
By acutely thought progressions or brilliant betting selections it doesn't matter.

There are many scientific assumptions and tests available to prove our system is really working or not.

The best and most annoying assumption is that no one progression could overcome a mathematical negative edge game.
Or that one coming from a BJ pro stating that is a perfect gambling miracle to triple up our bankroll two times in a row before going broke. 
I personally agree and I can't dispute this assumption.

Then it comes the second and more interesting assumption: there's no way to place our bets to get an edge without the use of any progression. Meaning we cannot get any kind of fk advantage choosing what to bet and what to not bet.
So despite our efforts directed to find some possible miracle EV+ spots, we aren't going anywhere as mathematics dictates that every our bet will always produce a negative global outcome.
Now I personally disagree.

Obviously, a possible EV+ betting selection will get better results by the use of a progression, providing it will take care of the itlr fluctuations of the game and after having properly assessed our long term edge.

Experts think that such positive edge bet selection doesn't exist at all and they are right because they keep thinking on mathematical terms.
So every single hand the game is producing will get an average of 50.68-49.32 mathematical expectation.  And every f bet we'll place is getting a long term 1.06%-1.24% negative edge.

So far so good. No news.

Back to the topic.

Many internet winning method sellers claim to get an edge over the house (some i.diots claim to get a 70% edge over the house, a real bighornshit).
Obviously we know with 100% accuracy that no one progression could have the best of it.
Likewise we know that a given edge must be produced by a simple flat betting procedure and I don't know a single author able to demonstrate that a FB method will give the player an edge.

Imo, the real accurate test to ascertain that a method is really a winning one is a betting procedure capable to totally erase or hopefully invert the P hands' inferior expectancy.

I mean a betting method where our P bets will get a zero results gap with B hands at worst or a slight edge itlr.

In the long run.

What's the long run?

Difficult to say, but I dare to say that we are in good shape after having noticed that our P bets are showing a zero or a slight positive outcome after thousands and thousand of shoes where B hands are getting closer to the 50.68-49.32 ratio. So no tricks or positive variance issues are allowed as any P bet must have a zero or positive otucome at worst.   

In a word, a possible winning method should surpass my personal ABG rule suggesting that a winning bet selection must produce either neutral or positive P betting long term outcomes, that is a betting selection capable to totally erase the B advantage over thousands and thousands of shoes.

How many betting selection systems are able to get such accomplishment?

Summarizing, imo a long term winning method should be able to catch those spots where P bets are going to get neutral (at worst) or positive long term outcomes.

Mathematics dictates in every P spot we'll bet we are getting a -1.24% disadvantage, but actually and for some weird reason my rule likes to state that a winning system should get a 0% or a slight positive edge.

And I'm only talking about the worst B/P proposition the game will produce, the P bets.

as. 

   
 


 



 


   

 



 



























   







#31
That's my book I'm glad to introduce here.  It will be printed in october.

Contents (so far no editing was made, so i'm sorry about my bad english):

- General concepts

- Differences between a perfect 50/50 game and baccarat

- The role and the weight of asymmetricity

- Dispositions and distributions

- Baccarat variance and the "decline in probability" concept applied to baccarat

- Banker side events vs Player side events. The "enemy concept"

- Approaches based on the most likely events apparition

- Getting an edge by flat betting on some selected spots, part one

- Online vs live casinos

- The long term winning baccarat player attitude



as.












#32
Baccarat Forum / Breaking selected long streaks
May 01, 2015, 11:28:15 PM
From a theorical point of view, there's nothing wrong betting toward the streaks' breaking, as a finite card composition itlr is slightly more likely to produce the opposite hand just occurred (in a high card game whatever intended).

That's true considering a perfect 50/50 game, where any side has a perfect 50/50 expectancy per any hand played.
Unfortunately, or better sayed, luckily, baccarat has a third card rule (TCR) working.

Now in real baccarat, TCR not only enhance this effect on one side but even revert it on the other one in many occasions (not in every occasion after long statistical studies!).

From a theorical point of view and according to our data, after a no TCR bac game the best move is to bet against the last outcome as this strategy will get us a very very very slight edge and not a zero edge game.
Naturally, the more we wait to get some selected dispositions, the better will be our results since a finite deck will more likely produce the opposite hand just occurred in some proportional fashion.
Simplifying, in the long run we'll get more 5s streaks than 5+s streaks than mere singles/streaks. Expecially in some portions of the shoe after some events had occurred.

Itlr, the way a card composition deck is placed is to get more opposite last hand results than what a 50/50 proposition will dictate.
That's an effect of card removal and finite force of random intervention.

Now let's consider the TCR.

We know that TCR will act an average of about one time over ten hands (ok, it's slight less for the good peace of one real expert of this game, 8.4% is the answer) and we don't know its real frequency per actual shoe.

We surely know that whenever an AS spot (springing a TCR effect) will be formed, banker will be mathematically advantaged by a 15.86% edge (this is 100% accurate).

And we also know that a streak of some lenght is a theorical abnormality of the normal flow of the game, expecially whether such streak is Player placed.

Now, what's our best prediction about having a "return to normality" status?

Let me guess.

Maybe after a P streak of some lenght having shown one or more asymmetrical hands unexpectly going to the Player side?

Or maybe trying to get a P hand after a B streak which has shown NO asymmetrical hands?

Oops, in both the circumstances there were no AS hands working or, worse yet, if such AS hands had formed they unexpectedly went to the P side.

Hence we are playing an almost perfect 50/50 game coping with the obnoxious thing we have to pay a 5% tax if we'll get lucky to win during a B symmetrical hand.

Am I saying that not every streak is equal from a forming point of view?

Am I saying that itlr a 5 P symmetrical hands streak is slight different from a 5 P streak where one or more AS hand unexpectedly went on P side?

And what about the likelihood that such selected events itlr will repeatedly go on the same side?

as.







 




   



     




















 
#33
Baccarat Forum / Dragon bonus got "destroyed"
October 31, 2014, 11:56:46 PM
I got news a team of 10 players recently made a serious dent in the baccarat bankroll of one US casino, heavily betting on dragon bonus.

Everyone here knows how the dragon bonus works and I guess most part of you have read the Jacobsen topic about that.

http://apheat.net/2012/08/12/card-counting-the-dragon-bonus-baccarat-side-bet/

It sounds this team had heavily and simultaneously bet mainly the "before last" and last hand of any shoe after having counted the cards removed from the deck.

Let's summarize a bit.

Dragon bonus is a bet where you bet the winning hand will win by a fair percentage of points over the losing one (minimum set at 4 or more points).

By a proper and accurate card counting, players could get an advantage expecially on the latest portions of a shoe.

Cards which lessen the probability of having a 4+ points gap mostly are Aces, 2s and 3s.
Cards enhancing the dragon bonus factor are 8s and 9s (7s too, at a lesser degree).

For obvious reasons, dragon bonus Player bet will show better perfomances than the same Banker bet, having the first bet about a 4 times lower negative edge than the counterpart.

The team after having accurately counted every card, waited the right circumstances to bet the very last hands of some shoes, getting the best of it by far.

Rumors suggested they solely bet when the 8s-9s-paints ratio was higher at some degree than other card combinations, thus simultaneously betting huge sums either on the player dragon bonus side and inferior amounts on banker side, without waiting other "perfect card distribution" situations.

Surely they got long positive transitory variance outcomes, let's think about winning a 30-1 proportion having had the luck to encounter a 9-0 third card or a 0-9 third card scenario.

Anyway, the simultaneous steady "good luck" and accurately selected flow raised the casino's heat ending up with the ban of those "lucky" end-shoe bettors.

Moreover and for good measure, the casino erased the dragon bonus bets from the baccarat tables, the like dragon and panda bets are steadily disappearing in our beloved felts.

as.