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Messages - AsymBacGuy

#196
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
May 01, 2023, 12:19:30 AM
Another sample:

WL
LL
WL
WW
LL
LW
WL
LW
WW
LW

A quite harsh 10-shoe sample, a lot of 3 streaks...notice those back to back 3 streaks at two shoes.

Horizontal line: WLLLWLWWLLLWWLLWWWLW

L= -30 AND W= 10,  that's a strong deviation toward negative territory
Despite that we have tools to find situations to make our bets more likely to win.

An additional 10-shoe sample:

LW
WW
LW
WW
WW
LW
WW
WW
LL
WW

Hor line: LWWWLWWWWWLWWWWWLLWW

One more:

WW
LL
WW
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW
LL
LL

Horiz line: WWLLWWWWWWWWLWWWLLLL

L= -21 W= +13

Still we find ways to win, actually so far the shoes samples taken randomly cumulatively produced a L>W ratio, yet we can easily win.

as.
#197
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
April 30, 2023, 11:53:25 PM
Notice that at baccarat we do not want to guess this or that hand, but putting the house to 'hope' we won't be right each time we'll bet towards more likely situations to happen framed into a W/L scheme.

Test your shoes and let me know how many times a first and second column results arranged at a horizontal succession will produce quite different conditions I've depicted above.

as.
#198
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
April 30, 2023, 11:37:39 PM
Hi KFB and thanks!

IMO a long term winning bac player should put the house to hope for something slight unlikely to happen and not vice versa.

Betting B or P alone makes the house's expectations as it's a close to a 50/50 unbeatable proposition (Kerrich coin flip data, for example), furthermore aggravated by a negative edge.

Raising the probability of success at greater than 50% values might get us more predictable situations not just for a mere (and fruitless) math condition but because baccarat is a multiple asymmetrical game.

Therefore it doesn't make any substantial difference if I'm betting B after B or after P as any single hand seems to have no valuable dependent informations to take advantage from.

Now say you'll bet that a given column won't produce a 3/3+ streak, so the W/L proposition is 3:1 as after having lost the first bet (not being a single) in order to get a profit you'll raise (double) the second bet toward a double.
It's a math affair: on average and assuming a perfect coin flip game, one triple will come out after 3 single/double apparitions of any kind and distribution.

So according to the above posts, let's pretend to set up a progressive multilayered plan that the very first pattern of any shoe won't be a 3/3+ streak.
3 streak = L and single/double = W

Itlr and without any doubt W clusters will be slight superior than W isolated, the only (relative) issue is about the vig.
The same but by a lesser degree of confidence level about each class of Ls, more isolated than clustered, more doubled than tripled, etc.

Nevertheless this is just a 'quantity' point of view, very susceptible to the negative variance.
Sooner or later and still considering 10-shoes samples, it will happen that ALL 10 shoes will form a 3 streak at the very beginning of it (first column).
A very very unlikely scenario but surely it will happen.

Now let's consider the second column in relationship of what happened at the very first one:
Simplifying a lot, how many 3s will follow another 3 streak that came out as first pattern?
And how many single/double patterns will follow a single/double pattern previously showing up at the first column?
Now the variance is way more restricted as it's somewhat negated by several steps the 'hopping' verified baccarat propensity. In some way that's a quality factor.
Here the probability to encounter 3/3 patterns at both first and second columns of each shoe is almost zero. Assume is 0.

Consider this 10-shoe sample taken randomly
W= single or double and L= 3 streak

WL
LL
WW
WW
WW
WL
WW
WW
WL
WW

Put these outcomes into a horizontal succession:

WLLLWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWW 

Another 10-shoe sample:

WW
WL
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW
LL
LW
WW

The horizontal succession is: WWWLWWWWWWLWWWLLLWWW

Another 10-shoe sample:

WW
LW
WW
LW
WW
WW
LW
WW
LW
WW

Horizontal succession is WWLWWWLWWWWWLWWWLWWW

Comments

At baccarat there's no point to 'chase' losses, only betting towards winning clusters at the same time never forgetting that we need just the number 1 to be ahead (hoping for more than 1 is just gambling). The same 1 number could be utilized at L situations but knowing it will get a greater variance's impact.

In order to reduce variance, results must be someway restricted within 'ranges'.

It's impossible to beat baccarat if we're considering it a kind of coin flip game.

After all at a perfect random coin flip game and no matter how much we raise the probability of success, itlr W clusters = W isolated and L isolated = L clusters.
It's wise to work out at things disputing this and not trying to beat it mathematically as it can't be possible by any means.

as.
#199
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
April 26, 2023, 01:45:39 AM
Seventh sample taken randomly (10-shoes data considered as first and second pattern):

WW, WW, WW, WL, WW, WL, WW, WW, WW, LL.

Eight sample:

WW, LW, LW, WW, WW, LW, WW, LW, WW, LW.

Ninth sample:

WW, WW, WW, WW, LW, LW, LW, WW, LW.

Tenth sample:

WW, LW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW

11th sample

WW, LW, WW, WW, LW, WW, LL, LW, WW, WW.

12th sample:

WW, LW, WW, WW, LW, WW, LW, WW, WW, WL.

13th sample:

WW, WW, LL, WW, LW, LW, LW, LW, WW, WW.

14th sample:

WW, WW, LW, WW, WW, LW, LW, WW, WW, LW.

15th sample:

WL, LW, WW, WL, WW, WW, LL, LW, WW, LW.

16th sample:

WW, LW, WL, LL, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WL.

17th sample:

WW, LW, WW, LW, WW, WW, WW, WL, WW, WL.

18th sample:

WW, WL, LL, WW, LW, WW, WW, WW, WL, WW

19th sample:

WL, WL, WW, WW, WW, LL, WW, LW, WW, WW.

20th sample:

WW, WW, WL, WW, WW, LW, WW, LW, LW, WW.

I can run my datasets forever or any other reliable bac source and things won't change.
Maybe some harsh variance could come out along the way but itlr everything must be placed accordingly to that statistical appearance.

In this 140 shoes sample we got:
- 47 W clusters;
- 11 W singles;
-  7 L clusters;
- 41 L singles.

But that's just a start, there are more powerful tools to take advantage of.

as.
#200
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
April 26, 2023, 12:33:41 AM
b]Gaps[/b]

It's obvious that the game could be beatable by qualities and quantity qualities and not by mere quantities.
A quality (I consider the term in a wide sense) needs more linked factors to show up, so the field of randomness should be somewhat restricted especially when it's not a real randomness.
 
Let's make an example.

Assume we're using a sky's the limit progression wagering that the very first pattern of any shoe dealt won't be a 3+ streak (a streak longer than 2).
So hoping that the first pattern will be a single or a double.

I take randomly 10 shoes from my datasets and see what happens.

L, W, L, W, W, W, L, W, W, L.

If we use a 1-2 progression for any step progressively raising the bet after a two-step loss (1-2, 4-8, 16-32, 64-128, etc), this sample would be a winning one featuring just single losses between wins. Despite of the total W/L ratio by flat betting accounts to -6 units (vig ignored for simplicity) as W=6 (x1) and L=4 (x3).

Arrange this WL succession into all possible permutations and it could happen, albeit quite unlikely, that the sequence will look as L,L,L,L,W,W,W,W,W,W.
Now our progression would be as 1-2 (L), 4-8 (L), 16-32 (L) and 64-128 (L), that is 255 units spent to win just one miserable unit.
We needed a 256-512 progressive unit plan to recover all the previous losses (but vig could lower that ratio).

So far we may infer that playing singles/doubles vs 3+ streaks at a preordered point could be a very dangerous BS plan, actually it is even at any other point of the shoe considered.

Another observation we can make at the original succession is that after a L every next outcome will be a W.
On the other hand betting W after a W provides just one loss being followed by two wins.

Finally, when the number of L is inferior than the number of W at a 10-shoe sample, at least one WW clustered event will mathematically happen.

Anyway by wagering this exact first pattern situation, we're playing a quantity.

Go on and see at the same original succession what's the second pattern coming out after the first one whatever it is, always in terms of W=single/double and L=3+ streak.

L, W, W, W, W, W, W, L, W, W.

Now our progressive plan no matter the possible permutations involved remains good as no back to back L came out.
Moreover the L singled outcome trigger remains good and just the first and second pattern produced two L in a row.

By flat betting (1-2) this second pattern we got a +2 units, so we are still behind 4 units (after vig).

Let's take another 10-shoes sample and see what happens.
First pattern:

W, W, L, W, W, L, W, W, W, L.

By FB (1-2) it's a -2 units loss.
The single L trigger stands and the same about WW clusters.

Notice that overall we got -6, +2, -2 so we're still behind 6 units.
Obviously by adopting the sky's the limit approach so far we did't get any bust.

See the second pattern of this second 10-shoes sample:

W, W, L, W, L, W, W, W, W, W.

Again +2 units by FB, single L trigger remains solid, W clusters quite good.
No matter the permutations.

Maybe someone could see that the second patterns are more likely to produce a W succession after a L one (and perhaps vice versa) but that's not the point.

Let's see about a third 10-shoe sample taken randomly.

W, W, W, W, W, W, L, W, W, W.

Easy game, huh?  :D Not really. 
The total count by flat betting is +6, so erasing the previous deficit (again before vig).
Notice we are considering 30 shoes.
But a single spot we didn't have to put in action our pogressive plan.   

Second pattern

W, W, W, L, W, W, W, L, W, W.

+2 by FB, just two spots needed a first-step progressive plan.

Fourth 10-shoe sample (again taken randomly).

L, L, W, W, L, W, L, W, W, W.

Same considerations about the first 10-shoe sample, but here we got a LL sequence.
By FB our total account for this sample is -6.

Second pattern

W, W, L, W, L, W, W, W, W, W.

'Randomness' is so capricious, again a W/L 8/2 ratio (+2 by FB).

Fifth sample.

W, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, W.

Wow, no 3+ streaks at the very start of any shoe.

Second pattern

W, W, L, L, W, W, L, L, L, W.

It seems we can't stay ahead by FB for long, -9 units by FB and the L singled trigger seems to not working.
Fortunately W clusters keep winning but it's a coincidence as 5 L and 5 W could easily distribute to get multiple singled W situations.

Sixth sample

W, L, L, W, W, L, W, L, W, W.

FB = -6 units
Now we have two W clusters and two singled W situations.

Second pattern:

L, L, W, W, W, L, L, W, W, W.

FB= -6 units.
No L singled situations and two W clusters.

If we'd think that betting towards singles/doubles vs 3+ streaks could get a kind of direct advantage, well it seems it's not the case.
So far our progressive plan got the best of it as only one time we had to utilize the fourth level of the progression, but we know that some different permutations would make us to lose our entire bankroll (either for bankroll finitess and for the maximum limits).

Are there other tools coming at our help to mitigate a negative variance or to raise our probability of success?

Let's consider now the back to back result (first pattern and second pattern) per each shoe dealt.
Again W= single or double and L= 3+ streak

Now the picture looks as

1) LL, WW, LW, WW, WW, WW, LW, WL, WW, LW

2) WW, WW, LL, WW, WL, LW, WW, WW, WW, LW

3) WW, WW, WW, WL, WW, WW, LW, WL, WW, WW

4) LW, LW, WL, WW, LL, WW, LW, WW, WW, WW

5) WW, WW, WL, WL, WW, WW, WL, WL, WL, WW

6) WL, LL, LW, WW, WW, LL, WL, LW, WW, WW.

Now the L clusters are well more defined in their distribution, more likely roaming around a 0 point.
On the other end and despite a slight than average apparition, W clusters distribute more clustered than isolated (of course after having considered the 3:1 probability ratio).

as.
#201
Thanks for your detailed answer, as always KFB!

I think that almost no one bac player will take care of the important 'streak rate'/bet amount ratio you've written, choosing a more 'confused' approach dictated by the actual results.

I mean that whenever we choose to bet a higher amount than our standard wager, we ought to consider that such bet should involve a greater than expected probability to win and not hoping to overcome a natural temporary negative variance.

So a flat betting player must solely rely upon a profitable bet selection working for him, maybe a progressive player of any kind could implement to his strategy additional tools as the streak rate compared to his bets, etc.

Unfortunately too many players think that raising the amount alone (at either winning or losing side) will do the job, forgetting that their bankroll is minuscule related to the house's one and just in case there are maximum limits to stop their action.

But the worst thing to do while losing is starting to wager the side bets that besides the Dragon Bonus at P side are heavily burdened by a 7% HE or more.

Thanks if you have time to further elaborate your thoughts, KFB!!

as.
#202
Hi KFB!

- horrible MM
- starting to desperately trying to get the Money back by wagering side bets
- Betting side bets no matter what
- Betting huge after losing and conservatively while winning

What's your opinion?

as.
#203
I believe you!
Whenever we play I always try to implement your ideas in our plan, then it seems that we must have some luck anyway  :thumbsup:

Btw, how sweet was that 16 B streak not properly capitalized?  Sigh.

as.
#204
Al, I highly respect your point of view, I've implemented many your ideas in our plan ('our' as it's three years we are playing as a kind of a team).

Problem is that every member who played or is playing with us adopted a kind of strategy too influenced by the actual outcomes, hoping that good things will stand or that something should change  without properly knowing the why.
There is one member who lost millions after having won millions, of course she filled casinos' pockets at the end. 
People like that hasn't the confidence to play baccarat anymore and just for the reasons you have brilliantly written above.

Eventually subjective strategies do not work, otherwise baccarat wouldn't exist and it's very likely that objective 'math-statistical' findings couldn't help in the very long run either.

Nonetheless, some (rare) people is interested when you're telling them that a given pattern is more likely to stop or to prolong and of course we can't be 100% or 80% right, just hoping that the decision will reach or surpass the well known 51.3% (B bets) and 50.1% (P bets) probability.

If there's a fallacy to think that we can statistically transform 50.68% into 51.3% and/or 49.32% into 50.1% well it will be true at both ways, subjective and objective.
I mean there's no evidence that subjective way will be ahead of the objective one.

When one player who seems to be a large winner and a lucky driver suddendly shouts "Next hand I feel Player" during a Banker streak, what are we going to bet?
Quite likely most players at the table won't follow him but for some reasons nobody is going to wager again the B streak either.
This exact thing happened recently and the 9 Banker streak didn't stop but prolonged to a 16 streak that nobody was betting on after the 'new genius in town' wrong feeling.

Then of course there are subjective strategies and objective strategies.
Strong 'subjective' players will lose around the negative HE, it's a wonderful accomplishment whereas poor objective players (especially those who use a violent progressive betting) will lose their a$$ in 4 or 5 sessions.

Conversely weak subjective players are going to lose almost every session and acute objective players could stand several sessions without losing a dime.

So it remains to demonstrate that one strategy is overwhelming or not the other one and only large samples of played shoes will get the answer. 

as.
#205
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
April 22, 2023, 09:36:10 PM
Unfortunately it's very difficult to follow casinoscores as many results are missing from the displays and there's no interruption between shoes.
The only way to collect outcomes is to write down them from the streaming, but even this sometimes doesn't work.

So end of the 'experiment'.

as.
#206
AsymBacGuy / Re: 365FB #1
April 22, 2023, 04:12:02 AM
Sorry, it's very harsh to follow REAL evolution results and writing down my forecasting bets.

I have to adopt my strong bet selections to do that, inthe meanwhile writing down manually the outcomes.

new fresh shoe

PT so far

PTB

BET B 1.5

B WON

NB

P 1.8
TIE

NB

P 1.5

P WON

BET B 2.6

B WON BY 9 OVER 6

NB

P9

NB

P WON

BET P 2.1

LOST

AGAIN BET P 2.1

LOST

BET P 3.0

WON
NB

BET P 2.6

WON

BET P 2.8

WON BY A N9

NB

BET P2.0

WON BY A N9

BET B 2.4

WON BY A 4 VS 0

NB

P 1.8

WON P4 VS B2

B 2.4

LOST 9 OVER 3

NB

P 1.9

WON 8 OVER 7

NB

NB

B 2.2

LOST 1 VS 8

B 2.5

LOST

NB
NB

BET B 2.7

WON 1 VS 0

BET B 2.5

LOST

NB

BET B 2.8

WON 8 VS 0

GAIN SAME BET B 2.8

WON 5 VS 1

NB

N9 AT B
NB

B 2.2

LOST 9 OVER 3

SAME BET B 2.2

WON 7 VS 6

NOW B 2.8

WON B7 VS P3

NOW P 1.2

WON 8 OVER 1

NOW P AGAIN 1.5

LOST 2 VS 9

I CALL IT A NIGHT

SEE YOU TOMORROW AND SORRY ABOUT THE ISSUES COMING OUT, AFTER ALL IT'S JUST A FIRST ATTEMPT TO DO THAT

TOMORROW I'LL START A NEW SESSION AT 8.30 GMT

SEE YOU AND THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE!!!

as.


 

#207
AsymBacGuy / 365FB #1
April 22, 2023, 02:08:30 AM
It's 3.08 GMT

#1. Last results are BPTPPBBBBP

From now Ties won't displayed and the before tie bet still stand otherwise indicated

#2. last decisions are PPPP

#3. PPPPP

#4. NB of course

#5. bet B1.5

#6. Won 1.5 was B

#7. ???
After a tie a B should have won

#8. Ok, np, you have to manually write down the results
Scores are inaccurate

#9. Keep track of the streaming results and not of displayed outcomes!!!!

#10. B 2.0

#11. W B 2

#12. NB for long, I have to track manually the results
Anyway up of 3.5 units before tax

#13. B 2.5

#14. Won

#15. so far 5.5 units won before vig

#16. tie NB

#17. banker wins by a 5 point

18. player wins by 3-5 N

#19. banker wins by a 5-4 draw NB

#20. player wins NB

#21. b wins by A-7
Now bet 2 at B

#22. Tite 7-7 NB

#23. NB

#24. Bet B 1.8

#25. YESS!
Won 4-5

#26. NB

#27. banker won by a 8
Bet B 1.0

#28. easy fkng game won

#29. NB

#30. player won by a 6
NB

#31. P5 B4 player won
NB

#32. P won by a 5-4 point
NB

#33. Bet Player 2.5

#34. LOst

#35. P wins by a 6

#36. NB

#37. easy P bet 2.8
#208
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
April 22, 2023, 02:07:19 AM
Stop talking about theory, let's put in practice all the bigh.orn.s.h.it I've stressed you so long here.

Taking an idea from another forum's member, I'll make fictional bets in real time at live outcomes.

Sessions will be made following casinoscores.com/lightning-baccarat site.

We pretend to get a $1.000.000 bankroll by wagering $10.000 unit bets, maximum bet will be $30.000 . Reason to consider a 3x standard bet is because I do not want to make an endless series of NB (no bets).
Bets will be written under the 1 or 1. form, so for example a $15.000 bet at Banker side will be a  B1.5

Games are assumed as normal commission games (5% vig).
vig will be acconuted at the end of each session .

Bets will be placed as:

B = Banker bet
P = Player bet
NB = No bet

I'll make my best efforts to spot the next bet ASAP and to write down the actual W or L result.

Despite that, I've recently experienced a very bad connection on that site, so whenever this thing happens I'll simply report this.

For simplicity time considered will be GMT.

Each session will be displayed by a fresh thread on my section (365FB and the number) 

Let's play!

as.
#209
Nice post!

as.
#210
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 27, 2023, 02:25:41 AM
Sorry I have some issues to display the data, hope to fix the problem very soon.

as.