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Messages - AsymBacGuy

#31
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 13, 2024, 10:04:49 PM
Just tracked this live manually shuffled shoe:

B
PPP
BB
PPP
B
P
BBBB
PPPP
BB
PPP
B
PP
BBB
P
BBB
PPP
BBBB
P
BB
PPPP
BB
P
BB
PPP
BB
P

A very good shoe where our algo 1 have found a couple of 5/5+ streaks even though there were none at the Big Road.
Anyway the remaining shoe's texture came out so good for every other pattern the algo would elicit a bet.
And, curiosly, at this shoe there were many.

See you later

as.
#32
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 12, 2024, 04:52:43 AM
If you want to play baccarat successfully you must imprint in your mind that you'll get an edge ONLY  by getting more wins than losses: trying to erase or invert the HE by adopting progressions is a sure recipe for disillusionments and eventual disaster.

Technically such task can only be achieved by exploiting the "clustering effect" (CE) factor, always working at any shoe dealt but at different levels.
Most of the times the CE provides easy detectable situations, sometimes it'll be too restricted to be exploited, finally some very rare shoes won't make any room to get EV+ spots.

So baccarat is a kind of coin flip succession game only under the eyes of losers (2+2=6-2 forum 'experts of our a$$', for example).

Moreover, baccarat successions are quite dependent of the actual shuffling source and obviously you can get an idea about that only if you know (and get at your disposal) the several shuffling machines casinos will employ to deal bac shoes.

At the end you'd want to play baccarat only if you are able to manage a kind of 4.5 or 5 sigma probability NEGATIVE deviation that sooner or later may come out. (To simplify the issue it's like to face, without getting sensible damage, a 20 or 25 negative B/P streak).

Notice that by exploiting the CE, in the long term a 4.5 or 5 sigma will be more likely to show up at the positive end than at the negative one.
Yet those are very very unlikely situations, after all we're interested about the more likely ones.

The clustering effect moves around more likely steps

In a way or another and considering the common horizontal distribution of the outcomes (rightly displayed at 95% of the casinos' screens), every pattern fills the slots by a long term asymmetrical fashion.
If we'd consider streaks (so not giving a damn about the first row), empty column slots at 2nd, 3rd and superior rows will limit "geometrical" spaces more and more forming long empty shaped sequences where the "empty value" 1 will be more likely followed by superior empty spaces in relative relationship of the row filled.

Providing to set up a decent random walk, back to back 1-1 empty third row successions will be followed by superior empty row classes by a close to 59%/41% probability, meaning that our bets will get an astounding 18% edge (before vig) to win.

Anyway it's important to understand that such edge won't be linearly distributed as 1-1-1 sequences now are 'even money' to get wins than losses and the reason is because many "univocal" events happened somewhat deny a math propensity to show up (being 'consumed'by the actual card distribution).

As long as we're going more deeply at the rows evaluation, empty slots limited by possible or actual "streaky" patterns will form longer empty sequences than 1, but it's up to us to choose the minimum profitable risk to get a win.
And of course, deeper we're trying to get such empty rectangles NOT to be limited by a 1 gap, greater will be our probability of success.
At the cost of missing many profitable opportunities mostly belonging to a undectectable random world we can't do anything about that.

Say that what our algos are interested about (after being instructed to take two different mechanical random walk shapes) is the empty row ranges considered at various levels:

1) When considering the third row, singles and doubles "empty" rows matter only when the 1-1 back-to-back empty row range trigger happens. And it must be played just one time. 

2) When considering the fourth row, we have to get rid of the first row events, meaning we 're taking care of the second and third row vs the fourth (or superior) rows. That is singles are considered as neutral. Here the same 1-1 trigger range concept applies but now we're adding an isolated  superior than 1 situation vs superior clustered events.     

3) When considering the fifth row, we're getting rid of both singles and doubles, so focusing about triples and 4s vs 5/5 streaks empty ranges.

4) Sometimes and for the slight more propensity doubles are showing up, even doubles coupled with 4s present profitable clustered situations, mostly as triples haven't come out so far.

Without any doubt and as already sayed, shuffling machines will make way easier the task to get predictable empty row ranges than expected.

That's the reason why HS rooms keep offering "preordered" shuffled shoes we do not know a fkng about.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
#33
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 11, 2024, 10:19:42 PM
Hi KFB!!

Sometimes I find it helpful to observe the clustering and run lengths as it helps me identify the "weak link" which in turn tells me the current strong side. The key in my opinion is early detection as just one or two spots earlier winning spots can often mean the difference in our "Win-In-A-Row" length (At least for me).


IMO, you couldn't condense the issue in a better way!!  :thumbsup:

Think that basically casinos will lose only when long streaks of something univocally shaped will happen, all other "low deviations" patterns will favor them in a way or another (HE, players' greediness, wrong adaption of the actual results, etc).
Moreover players being favored by such (rare) long univocal patterns will lose very soon what they've earned and we well know that the "quitting when you're ahead" move is a complete worthless bighorn.stuff.

Therefore an acute player should be prepared to know that what constitutes an "easy way" to win (rarely happening) actually is just the fuel to mantain live this game.
In other words, an acute player should selectively bet towards low levels of deviations, being way more likely than the counterparts.

Now, it's sure as hell that low degree of deviations (whatever considered) will come out clustered or not by different levels of probability (0= no clusters, 1= one clustered event, 2=two clustered events, etc).

Then even each clusters streak already classified by a 0,1,2, etc class will come out isolated or clustered and so on.

Wholly considered, it's virtually impossible not to get at least a back-to-back same class category to show up, even considering the 0 (isolated) value.
In fact 0-0 (or 0-0-0, etc) is a cluster.

More later

as.
#34
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 07, 2024, 03:40:37 AM
The main factor why bac players keep filling casinos' pockets is because they try to get a utopian task to guess longer winning streaks than losing streaks where sure as hell the long term net sum is zero (before HE).

More acute players have studied both the average "prolonging" and "stopping" pattern expectation of what the actual shoe produces in relationship of a "general" probability.
When such ratio strongly differs from a more likely flow of the outcomes (say when long streaks came out) they simply do not bet as such long streaks may easily belong to "math inversion" events.

In some way long streaks should be considered as negative bj card counts where positive situations more often than not are not coming out so easily in the remaining portions of the deck.

The beauty of baccarat is that long streaks (longer than 4) still implement a "finiteness" attitude verified by checking out long term live samples.

Let's consider the issue more technically, so by using numbers:

If a 5/5+ streak accounts for a 5 number, a 4 streak for a 4 number and so on about inferior streaks (up to 2), any shoe dealt will provide a final total number made by a simple arithmetical operation.

Now we want to add the previous streak number with the next number, so for example a 5/5+ streak followed by a 4 streak accounts for a 9 sum (5+4).
At the next streak occurence the last 4 number could transform into 6 (4+2), 7 (4+3), 8 (4+4) or 9 (4+5).

Each sum of two adjacent streaks will form a number succession where some numbers can't be produced.

For example, after a 5/5+ streak happened, the most inferior possible number is 7, then a 8, then a 9 and finally a 10.

Since we have reasons to play towards low sum numbers and knowing that the best scenario will be to get a 4 sum (2+2) and so on (2+3 and 3+2 = 5) or (2+4 and 4+2 =6) or (3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 2+5 =7) and finally (4+4 = 8), a 5/5+ streak will deny many possible "profitable" spots as sooner or later 10 or 20 or 30 (or more) back to back sum values must happen.

Approaching the issue in another way, it's like a final sum made after those simple rules is going to provide an average final shoe's result.
But anyway getting some peaks, some steady values and some decreasing values.

To help defining when some spots are worthwhile to be bet, we can confide about the relative unlikelihood that 5/5+ streaks will be hugely produced along any shoe dealt.
I've provided a couple of different source samples so you might get a better idea of what I'm talking about.

But what's important to be emphasized is that streaks of precise lenght that didn't appeared so far must not be considered to show up as what we're really interested about is the clustering effect.

After all we're not fighting to get a potential outcome whatever is entitled to show up unless it came at least one time.
For sure "isolated" specific streaks will come out but not for long.

Clustered streak classes to look at

a) First are doubles coming out clustered at least one time.

b) Then doubles coupled with triples.

c) Then doubles coupled with 4s whenever triples didn't seem to show up.

d) Then triples with 4s.

At very rare occasions even mere 4s (so not getting any help from inferior streaks classes, so battling alone vs 5/5+ streaks)

A multilayered betting scheme will take care of those a/b/c/d possible events having the main task to get at least ONE clustered event.
No need to set up a fictional betting strategy waiting for some losses (albeit being wonderful whether we have the attitude to be extremely patient) : what happens still remains more likely to come out again at a given events' category.

Then the same "propensity" will act even at the singles/streaks battle, yet getting more intricate tools to be grasped.

I'm deadly sure you're on the right site to ascertain whether this wonderful game would be beatable. :thumbsup:

as.
#35
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 06, 2024, 10:43:32 PM
IMO and according to our data, baccarat outcomes move around a kind of constant 'asymmetrical' propensity widely intended.
We've found that streaks are a better target to set up a plan about and they always start after a same result happened at least twice.
On the other end, when a same result happened 5 or more times, we are not interested anymore to assess the streaks destiny as longer streaks most of the times are affected by a kind of "math inversion" due to the third(s) cards impact.

In poor words, we think that the 2-5 streaks range is the best to risk our money at.
Moreover we know that the 'overalternating' results succession is slight less likely to happen, privileging back-to-back same outcomes where by far the more probable cluster is one (and at a lesser degree, two).

Back to the 'asymmetrical' feature.
The interesting point is that the baccarat asymmetrical world tends to make a decent portion of symmetrical events in a row, meaning that same streaks lenght or two streaks classes are slight more likely to show up clustered than at a perfect binomial independent symmetrical model.
Obviously the very slight propensity to get the opposite event already happened makes a role in that, yet and generally speaking successful random walks do not take into account B and P hand sequences as they're too much influenced by low levels of "statistical limitation".
And, more importantly, no preordered mental schemes based upon too long term findings (for example knowing that P singles and P doubles are slight more than 3:1 favorite to come out than P triples; or that B streaks are more probable than B singles, etc) will help us.

If we want to play baccarat with a possible edge we should understand that "common" stats won't help us too much, otherwise the game wouldn't exist.

The whole EV- picture presents many EV+ spots

See you later

as.
#36
Off-topic / Re: Photo Ops
February 06, 2024, 01:31:05 PM
December sunrise from my house

#37
Off-topic / Re: Photo Ops
February 06, 2024, 01:21:21 PM
Quote from: alrelax on February 06, 2024, 03:15:52 AMLast winter in Kansas City, just a totally painted sky in the early morning.

Terrific!!!!

as.
#38
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 05, 2024, 04:37:21 AM
BTW: try to spot two different mechanical random walks getting a slight different pace capable to exploit the most asymmetrical bac features and you'll get one of the solution to get a sure indeniable long term edge.

We'll see how a multilayered progressive plan will get the best of it.

as.
#39
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 05, 2024, 04:10:41 AM
Betting plan

Baccarat world is made by infinite situations that we could restrict by considering streaks.

More hands we'd try to guess lesser will be our profits, or better sayed, greater will be our losses.
There's no fkng exception about that, believe us.

Mathematicians and 'so called' gambling experts will say to us that no matter how's diluted our betting, the EV remains negative yesterday, now and in the future.

This is a complete false statement as it considers any shoe dealt springing from the same shuffling source.
We've seen that it makes quite a difference when a shoe is shuffled by a machine or manually or by "only gambling gods know" preordered shuffles.
The 'cut' made by players (when allowed) isn't a proper tool to break the shoe sequences, it just postpones them.

Hence we must be prepared to deal with sd values (at both positive and negative ways) and machine sd values are way better controllable than other shuffling procedures.
Next are manually shuffled shoes and at the bottom of the list come preordered shuffled shoes where we do not get any hint about how they were shuffled.

1) How many 5/5+ streaks are we expecting from any shoe dealt?

We strongly think that percentages presented above are accurate, we do not care less about millions of shoes dealt especially when a homogeneous source wasn't considered (so you could put in the trash every data you've collected unless coming out from the SAME source). In the same way we shouldn't give a fk about B/P long term raw percentages as sure as hell they will be approaching more and more the 0.5068/0.4932 useless ratio.

We need to assess the average streaks distribution after having devised one or more proper random walks.

After having classified every "long streak" happening as belonging to the 5/5+ category, the positional distribution of them is paramount as way more than half of the times we'll expect zero or one or two 5/5+ streaks happening along the entire shoe; obviously more such long streaks happen at the start or intermediate parts of the shoe greater will be the probability to get a shoe surpassing the inferior than three/superior than three streaks number ratio.

Remember that per every seven shoes dealt on average you'll get ZERO shoes presenting a 5/5+ streak, and at the worst situation you're almost 3:1 favorite NOT to get three or more 5/5+ streaks.

More simply, well more than half of the shoes dealt will include just one or two 5/5+ streaks whatever distributed.

Best scenarios and worst scenarios

Well, best scenarios are when zero 5/5+ streaks will happen along the entire shoe (nearly 13.8% of the times), worst scenarios are when the "four" cutoff streaks number  will be reached or surpassed (say it's  about a 5% value or so).

So we're nearly 2.77:1 favorite to get zero 5/5+ streaks than having four or more 5/5+ streaks at any shoe dealt.

Problems arise when we have to decide the more valuable spots to deny such possible 5/5+ streaks

We'll see this issue in a couple of days.

as.
#40
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
February 04, 2024, 10:05:10 PM
Here another set of thousands of live shoes dealt by preordered shuffling (same HS room); notice that the previous shoes data were extracted by a Shuffle Master Machine: 

Zero 5/5+ streak account for 14.51%

One 5/5+ streak account for 28.49%

Two 5/5+ streaks account for 29.56%

Three 5/5+ streaks account for 19.89%

Four or more 5/5+ streaks account for 7.52%

Comparing those two sets of data we see that at the second sample one and two 5/5+ streak shoes concede more room to three and four(4+) streak shoes.
In addition at both data zero 5/5+ streak shoes percentage is almost corresponding and one and two streaks categories keep being distributed "even money" between themselves.

IMO streaks lenght and average distribution are the best indicators of the binomial model movements affected by a kind of asymmetry (bac rules, key cards impact acting at finite sequences, etc).

So for example at the first sample we'll get an average 82.63% cumulative probability to cross zero/one/two 5/5+ streaks per shoe; at the second sample the same probability decreases to 72.56%.

At any rate no matter the shuffling procedure employed, shoes presenting one and two 5/5+ streaks account for respectively 69.46% and 58.05% of total shoes.
At both data the zero 5/5+ streaks percentage (13.17% and 14.51%) acts as a kind of constant "bonus".

It's quite obvious to deduce that we shouldn't really interested to guess what precise patterns will show up along any shoe dealt (so there's no point to bet against streaks formation around any corner), just to assess the more likely classes of precise streaks distribution happening per every shoe dealt. Thus being able to understand the acute damage (or favor) 5/5+ streaks will get to us on average and in important relationship with the actual shuffling procedure.

Those are just the basics, we need a plan to try to get the best of it.

See you later

as.
#41
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 31, 2024, 04:13:25 AM
Suppose we want to adopt a more risky progressive plan, one which can get us innumerable wins with very very low or insignificant levels of probability of losing the entire bankroll.

IMO first we should consider random walks producing many "low" or "moderate" streaks, so getting rid of the singles production thus considered as neutral events.
Then and even though long term statistical findings teach us that doubles are slight more likely to happen than any other pattern, only the proper assessment of the actual shoe dealt will help us to find what and when to bet.

Casinos prosper about the unlikelihood that players will guess right for long by ratios surpassing 51.2% at B bets and 50% at P bets.
A progressive plan doesn't shift such ratios in our favor, unless the average streaks distribution provides low sd values, up to a 4 or 4.5 sigma (e.g. a 16 or 20 B or P streak or any other unlikely proportional deviation).
And providing the use of proper random walks, it fkng does.

If the time works for casinos, let the time be working for us.

Basics

How many 5/5+ streaks per shoe are going to be produced on average when the main random walk is acting?

Following data come from thousands of real live shoes dealt at MonteCarlo casino where 8 decks are utilized and almost two decks are cut off from the play.   

Zero 5/5+ streak account for 13.17%

One 5/5+ streak account for 34.73%

Two 5/5+ streaks account for 34.73%

Three 5/5+ streaks account for 14.97%

Four or more 5/5+ streaks account for 2.39%

Since per every shoe sample made of nearly 60 hands dealt we'll expect on average a slight lesser amount than four 5(5+) streaks percentage (after 64 hands it's 3.125%, so now more than that), we know we're getting an edge as the average statistical findings seem to strongly deny such expected value.

Obviously in practical terms it makes a lot of difference if we'd start up to bet against the 5/5+ streaks happening after a new column is filled than wagering after a given streak shows up.
We'll see this issue next.

as.
#42
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 30, 2024, 09:49:45 PM
Hi KFB!

Say that in terms of different patterns extracted by infinite random walks the less likely situation happening for each shoe is a balanced or close to balanced ratio, obviously influenced by the various portions of it.
After all, gambling is a game of clusters at either way, meaning that what we have won at positive (clustered) situations will be easily lost at negative clustered sequences.

The trick is to adopt random walks capable to shorten the streaks lenght as, generally speaking, baccarat is a game where streaks are better defined in their average appearance than a 50/50 independent model along any shoe dealt (thus considering an infinite succession of 72-78 resolved hands).

Q1/A1: I wouldn't bet ever toward 5/5+ streaks as our two random walks eliciting the algos action   find very few occasions to expect them. As an interesting part of shoes do not present any such (long) streak.
So in such instances any streak is valuable to be attacked up to the point that even 4s sometimes do not happen for that shoe.

It's true that moderate streaks (as 3s or 4s) coming out consecutively (so without any inferior pattern intertwined) make a relative more room to expect a longer streak (a 5/5+ streak).
Sooner or later some shoes must come out by filling a way shorter than average number of columns and this can only happen by the shoe producing long streaks.

Q2/A2: Good question.
By far the best probability to get 5 or more wins in a row is by "hoping" that A or B or both will take a uniform clustered direction (singles in a row, singles/streaks or streaks/singles, etc).

More later

as.
#43
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 24, 2024, 03:48:54 AM
Independently of the random walk utilized, longer streaks (say 5-5+) tend to dispose themselves by three different shapes:

a) Singularly interspersed between lower degree patterns (singles/doubles/triples and 4s)

b) Diluted or not showing up at all

c) Clustered (back to back) at various levels of consecutiveness and density.

Each shape of presentation has its merits with important practical reflexes.

Shape a) is the more likely course of presentation and could be applied at lower streak levels (4s or 3s).
Actually a (risky and unnecessary) multilayered progressive plan adopted to get 5s, 4s or 3s showing up as 'isolated' cannot be wrong for long as the isolated/clustered streak ratio tends to produce low sd values.
Problem is that by adopting this strategy we rely upon a "general" probability that could be voluntarily (virtually) altered once casinos know what we're doing.

Shape b) is not so rare to happen as we'll face more shoes presenting zero or one/two 5-5+ streaks and even 4 streaks than shoes producing a way larger number of expected 5-5+s.

Shape c) is very interesting as generally speaking, clustered 5-5+ streaks will make more room to inferior streak classes to happen in the next portions of the shoe.
Notice that whenever a 5-5+ streak cluster shows up, we're somewhat discontinuing a constant losing betting strategy as what we should interested in is to approximate the streak "ranges" per any shoe dealt getting rid now of the clustering effect (so we need a different event or a couple of different events to start or restart the r.w. action.

To get an idea about how our two algorithms work, instead of considering the filled BP spots (or every other either/or succession whatever intended) think about the empty areas shapes limited by the different columns lenght and rows interruptions.
Obviously deeper we go down in assessing such empty slots, greater will be the probability to get consecutive rows not filled by actual hands. Always considered by empty 'ranges'.

Even though algorithms work by numbers (probability after effects), with some practice such propensity could be geometrically ascertained up to the point that even a random betting at the proper times will pick up more wins than losses.

Someway algorithms base their action upon a ultra selected "negative" multishaped probability oriented to get something heterogeneous at one side and homogeneous at the other one.
At the end suggesting bets in order to get empty 'ranges' and not filled slots.

as.
#44
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 23, 2024, 10:17:31 PM
Hi Al!

Actually there are many mechanical approaches getting a very slight advantage over the house but to really succeed they need several parameters to converge into univocal betting spots.
And such parameters are more in direct relationship of the actual shoe production than about long term statistical findings.

Long statistical data help us to understand the more likely random walks movements roaming or distancing from a 0 starting point.
Obviously most part of them consider small or moderate steps at either left or right direction, an issue best studied by "streaks" lenght (widely intended as a 6 or 7 chopping line is a streak).

Then even such streaks may be classified into "isolated" streaks, two back to back streaks (cluster of two), three streaks (cluster of three) and so on.
Naturally any specific streak will fight against superior patterns (that is for doubles singles are ininfluent, for triples doubles are ininfluent and so on)

That's now that the actual shoe production becomes the main succession to be interested upon as each card distribution is asymmetrically shaped by definition and itlr everything will be equaled (or close to it).

If a distribution is asymmetrical even streak clusters will be asymmetrically grouped even though we do not know which streak classes will be clustered unless they came out at least one time.
The trick to consider two specific streak classes simply facilitates the problem as now we need each class to show up at least one time before making them to fight vs opposite streaks.

The beauty of baccarat is that streaks groups cannot show up isolated for long or, better sayed, that every shoe dealt in the universe is virtually destined to form at least one streaks cluster.
Sometimes such streak clusters are so long to prolong for the entire shoe and of course longer the streak classes considered, greater will be the probability to not cross an unfavourable streak not belonging to the classes wagered.

More later

as.   
#45
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 22, 2024, 03:15:14 AM
Al, I believe you, wagering small sums between serious bets is a perfect reasonable way not to get any heat from casinos.

"Successful players" I was referring to are people who like to get the best of it on every cent they put the money at.
Mostly I'm talking about Vegas players who are well aware that casinos consider baccarat as a unbeatable game, so they do not need to camouflage their action being labeled as worthless.

Technically I'm deadly sure that unless a huge betting spread is adopted, wagering 12-15 bets per shoe strongly reduces/erase/invert the EV+ and actually such people is interested to know that some "rare" spots could be EV+.

I mean that it's almost impossible to convince a part of HS no-bac players that baccarat is beatable by being more right than wrong at 12-15 hands bet per shoe.
For the remaining part (best baccarat scholars), the answer is a sure "no", an answer we take as a papal bull, confirmed by our findings.

Several times I've publicly invited youtube geniuses, system sellers and forums "I can't lose" claimers to mentor some HS people gladly accepting to concede a percentage cut of the winnings (worth thousands of $$), but with the disturbing downside that to avoid consequences such "winning players" must be right beyond any shadow of doubt (say capable to overcome a possible 4 or 4.5 negative sd value).

So far, nobody accepted the challenge but us.
Let me know if some "Banker is the best bet no matter what" or "I got a 53% winning rate" or other fkng bullsh.it claimers want to get a formidable freerolling on their money (but only at their money).

as.