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Messages - AsymBacGuy

#46
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 21, 2024, 10:00:04 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on January 18, 2024, 03:01:02 PMAsymBacGuy at the bottom of post #963: "...Now you might wonder why some "uninterested" players will patiently wait then betting 10k-20k after a couple of consecutive 1s came out in order to get any number different than 1..
.."

:thumbsup: Like

Hi KFB!  :)

Actually not every successful player will bet as huge as 10-20k per hand, surely all successful players will bet very few hands per shoe, the best being just one-two (or zero) bets per shoe.

In fact, more bets we'll place, greater will be the probability to fall directly into the EV- world as the profitable spots are quite rare to happen.

Technically those spots are 'convergence of probability' situations where different parameters belonging to a given random walk do converge to a more probable statistical line.

It's like using a kind of "score" by assigning numbers to specific r.w. patterns. Whenever for each pattern the score is negative or neutral or too light positively deviated, we'll simply do not bet (even though we would have been winners). In the only other scenario a bet is suggested by the algorithm.

It's obvious that everything revolves around the clustering effect of various patterns elicited by the same BP succession.
More clusters of something are happening (that is more numbers different than 1 are showing up) dictating a same hand wager, better will be the probability to catch "prolonging" clusters.
In poor words we'are just "approximating" that clusters won't stop right at the spot considered worthwhile, always setting up the "minimum" profitable value, that is one step going forward.

After having reached that minimum cutoff point, we should not be interested to bet anymore as we will simply find ourselves in the position of gambling.
Such "gambling" attitude, providing to assess carefully the starting points of the clustering effect, could be a (minor) viable tool for those who are capable to manage a positive betting plan without risking to hope for too long positive sequences erasing previous losses.

Anyway if you'd measure large shoes data (enduring almost every possible variance deviation) you'll see that it's way better to win few spots than chasing (challenging) the inevitable short positive successions typical of baccarat.

More later

as.
#47
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 17, 2024, 04:40:01 AM
Taking the same shoe sample let's see how third row gaps went (practically those are single/double streaks sequences):

2-2-1-1-9-5-(2)
1-4-7-5
11-1-2-6
1-4-6-10
4-14-6-5
4-1-1-5-4
1-11-3-2
2-5-3-1-1
6-3-9
1-2-7-13-1
4-1-2-1-6-1-1
1-11-3-4
4-1-4-3-1-4-3
3-2-3-8
2-2-9-5-4-(2)
2-13-1-1-(2)
14-5
2-1-4-2-1-1-4
3-7-6-3-4-6
1-2-2-9-1-5
6-1-1-3-6-5
3-5-1-15
1-6-1-2-8-3-3-4
3-8-7-5-3-3
1-10-5-1-2-5-3
4-4-1-4-4-2-(3)
3-4-6-2-4-1-6
1-4-4-5-10-1
1-1-2-2-4-1-3-3
4-2-1-4-5-1-4-1
5-2-15-2-1-4
5-4-2-2-13-4
9-3-10-1-8
2-2-4-7-3-1-1-2
2-1-4-6-2-5
2-1-1-4-2-2-2-1
1-2-2-13-1-1-4-2
4-8-5-11
7-2-2-13-1-5
12-1-3-2-8-1
1-11-3-4-5
10-1-1-5
9-5-1-8-2-4
3-1-16
3-4-2-3-1-5-8
1-7-1-2-1-1-6
3-2-6-1-17
4-2-1-6-3-3-(3)
1-4-5-4-1-3-5
3-2-5-5-2-1
1-4-2-5-16
2-4-1-3-1-13
10-6-9
4-1-9-1-9
2-13-8-7
2-1-1-5-2-5-5
1-1-3-1-2-1-4-5
8-6-6-2-5
4-2-1-1-1-1-1-6
16-2-2-5-6
-2-3-2-5-8-4
2-1-2-2-1-7-1
1-2-2-7-16
4-11-4-5-8
6-4-3-1
7-10-7-9
9-5-3-5
1-2-2-3-6-1-5
2-2-4-3-1-4-1
1-1-2-8-1-4-2-3
3-3-3-19
7-2-2-3-2-1-3
3-5-1-4-9-7-(2)
7-9-3-6-1
16-4-4-1
1-1-5-3-3-4
3-12-4
2-5-3-7-1-3-1-2
4-1-1-5-2-1-4
2-7-3-8-2-2
9-13-5-1
1-1-2-2-3-3-3-3
3-2-10-3-5
2-6-1-4-2
4-6-6-2-2-1-(2)
8-1-4-2-4-4-4
1-1-3-1-2-4-4
4-1-1-2-3-1-1-3
4-4-7-4
1-1-4-5-1-1-3-2-1-3
1-1-5-2-5-2-5
2-5-1-2-4-4
7-3-3-4-8-3
2-4-3-2-3-2-1-2
3-1-2-3-1-1-4
7-1-1-4-4
4-4-3-1-1-1-3-4
2-9-3-4-4-(2)
1-22-2-1-6
4-5-3-1-2-6
5-2-5-6-6-4
6-3-1-3-7-(2)
2-1-4-1-9-5-4
7-3-2-1-2-4
2-1-7-2-2-1-(2)
3-1-2-1-1-4-5-2
1-3-1-4-2-1-2-10
6-1-3-5-5-10
2-7-7-3-2
4-8-5-8
3-2-3-2-1-6-6
6-4-1-5-1-4-2-(3)
2-1-3-4-2-8-1
6-4-2-3-2-1-3
10-1-4-18
2-3-6-5-1-1-1

Now you might wonder why some "uninterested" players will patiently wait then betting 10k-20k after a couple of consecutive 1s came out in order to get any number different than 1.
Are they gambling?

as.
#48
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 17, 2024, 03:41:50 AM
Streaks gaps and the permutations issue rule algos action

Consider an A/B finite sequence (e.g. 12 steps) where (p)A = 0.75 and (p)B=0.25.

An 'ideal' distribution would be something like AAABAAABAAAB..etc
Actually this is the least likely scenario to get through as a perfect balanced A/B ratio came out, furthermore by a "perfect" pace.
In this case we are not worried about the HE as we know that the probability of success will be so defined that even if our winning bets we'll be payed 0.50:1, we'll crush the game.

Notice that here we're not trying to get a kind of positive variance as W=L.

Problems arise when:

a) The FINAL A/B ratio deviates too much from the expected values at either side (for example 2:1 or 2:2, etc) and obviously we do not know whether A or B are priviliged to show up;

b) Despite of a decent (low sd) final A/B ratio, temporary A (or B) situations are so clustered or so whimsically distributed that we won't know what and when to bet.

Whereas a) factor can't be resolved other than from a long term statistical point of view (huge variance), b) factor could be easily evaluated by "more probable" lines where streaks lenght make a decisive role in the betting options.

One of the main tools our algos rely upon is the probability any shoe dealt will fill (or not) certain rows (that is the streaks lenght) but always by "gaps", meaning that consecutive streaks filling second or third rows are not included in the process as no gaps could be classified here.

If you'd consider geometrically second, third and so on rows BY GAPS, you'll see that empty slots will be more and more asymmetrically shaped up to the point that it's a child's joke to "guess" when consecutive empty slots will take place, almost always by a different shape happened so far.

Providing a proper random walk, of course.

In fact every row is in direct relationship of the long streaks probability: further we consider rows, greater will be the probability to get higher than 1 gaps, at the same time getting rid of the consecutive long streaks making no room to form gaps.

More later.

as.
#49
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 16, 2024, 09:54:40 PM
Thanks KFB!

Back to the 3-4 streak clusters (We've already classified 2-3 and 2-4 streak clusters).

L-L-L
L-W
W
W-W
W
L-W
W
W-L
W
W
W-W
W-W
L-W
W-W
W-L
W
W-W
L-W-W
L-W-W
W
L-W-W
W-L
L-W
W
W
W-W
W-W
W-W
W
W
W-W-W
W
L-W
W
W-L
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W
L-W
W-W
W
L-L-W
W
W
W-W
W
W-W
W
W-W
W
W-L
W-W
L-W
W-L
W-W
W-L-L
W-W
W
W
L-W
L-W
W-W
W-W
W-L-W
L-W-W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W
L-L
L-W
W-W
L-W
L-W
W
W
W-W
W-L-L
W-L-L
W-W
W
W
W-W
W-W
L-W
W
W-W
W-W
W-L
W-L
W
W
W-W-W
W
L-W
L-L
W
W-W
W
L-W
L-W
L-W
W-W
W
W
W
W-W
W

W=147 L=47 (x3=141)

Nothing extraordinary, even though single Ws include several back-to-back wins and no loss (an obvious consideration happening at other streak clusters).
Out of 107 shoes, single Ws = 35 (nearly 1/3 of the total outcomes).

Comparing this small sample with 2/3 and 2/4 streaks we got:

2/3 streaks: W=249, L=92 (x3=276)  -27

2/4 streaks: W=188, L=41 (x3=123)  +65

Of course those data could easily change with other samples, the common denominator is that 5(5+) streaks remain less likely than what a binomial model dictates.
More importantly is the fact that doubles (2s) are more likely to produce a way higher amount of winning spots even if they could endure the variance.

Then, if a slight (but important) propensity is going to happen, the only obstacle we have to overcome is the permutation issue , best assessed by the old clustering effect.

After all, what happened could repeat once or more times but if it didn't happen so far it just remains in the 'potential world' we shouldn't give a fk about.
And this thing keep showing up at the various levels of clustering probability as 'isolated' patterns are the less likely to happen.

More later

as.
#50
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 10, 2024, 02:00:14 AM
Now let's consider the same CSM sample from a specific lenght clusters factor.

Algo #1 random walk will suggest a bet towards 2-3 streaks clusters vs 2 or 3 streaks isolated situations.

W-W-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
W-L-W-W
W-W-L
L-L-W-W
L-W-W
W-W-W
W-W-L-W
L-W-L-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
L-W-L
W-W
W-W-W
W-W-L-W-L
L-L-W
L-L-W-W-W
W-W-L
W-W-W-L
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W-W
W-W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W
L-L-W-W-L
W-L
W-W-W
W-L-W-W
W-W-W-W
W-W-W
W-L-W-W
W-L
W-W-W
W-W-W
L-L-W
W-W
L-W-W
L-W-L-W
W-L-L-W
W-W-W
W-W-W
L-W-W
W-W-W
L-W-W-W
L-W-W-W
W-W
W-W-W
W-L-W-L-L-W
L-L-L-W-W
W-W
W-W
W-L-L-W
L-L-L-W
W-W-W
L-W-W
W-W-W-W
W-W-L-W
W-W
W-L-W-W
W-W-W-W
W
W-W-W
W-W-L-W
W-W-L-W
W-L-L-W
W-W-L
W-W
W-L-W-L
W-L-L-W
W-L-W
W-W-W-W-W
W-W-W
W-W-W
W-L-L-W
W-W-W
W-W-W-W
L-W-W-W
W-L
W-W
L-L-W-W
W-W-W
L-L-W-W
W
W-W-W-L-W
W-W
L-W-L-L
L-L-L-L-W
L-W-W
W-W
L-L-L-W
W-W
W-W-L
L-W
W-L-L-L
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W-L-W

Now the same strategy using 2 s and 4s (3s considered irrelevant)

W
W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W
L-W-L
W-W
L-W
W-W
L-W
L-W
L-W-W
W-W
W-L-L-W
W
W
W-W
W-L-W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W
W-W-W
W
W
W-W
W-L-L
W-W
W
W
W-W
L-W
W-W
W-W
L-L-W
W-W-W
L-W-W-W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W
W-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
W-L-W
W
W-W
W-W-W-L-W-W
L-W
W-W
W-W-W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W
W-W
W-L-W
W
W-W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W
W
W
W
L-W-W
W
W
W
W-W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W
L-W-W
L-L-W
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W-W
L-L-W
W-W
L-L-W-W
W-W
W-W
L-W-L-W
W-W
W-L-W
W-L
L-W
W-W
W-W-L
W-W-W
W
W-W
L-W-W

Now 3s and 4s (next)

as.
#51
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 10, 2024, 12:50:31 AM
Quote from: alrelax on January 09, 2024, 10:54:00 PMOn the lighter side, if girls with big boobs work at Hooters, where do girls with only one leg work at?  IHOP.
(International House of Pancakes).

LOL  ;)

What about IHOP hiring girls with one leg but getting big boobs?
 
as. 
#52
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 10, 2024, 12:27:39 AM
The CSM statistically insignificant sample (but we played such shoes) provided:

Out of 124 shoes, 36 shoes haven't shown up a single 1 (29.03%, expected range=25%) and 88 of them one or more 1s (70.96%, expected range 75%).

Out of the classificable isolated or clustered 1s (91), 66 1s came out as isolated and 25 1s as clustered.
At this CSM sample the slight propensity surpassing the 3:1 ratio at the previous sample evaporated as a proportional greater amount of 1s clusters came out (27.47% vs an expected range of 25%; isolated 1s 72.51% vs 75%).

Positional events (1s vs superior numbers) went like this:

First number = +10 units

Second number = -14 units

Third number = +6 units

Fourth number = +32 units

Fifth number = +7 units

Sixth number = -31 units

Overall a +10 units

The point is that regardless of the shuffling method, a general propensity (1s<than superior numbers) constantly acts, all other intermediate patterns need evaluations made on the previous patterns.
It's the card clumping factor. In fact at this sample, a way greater amount of huge numbers than the previous sample came out that must be balanced in some way along the same shoe.
Not everytime but most of the times.

Algos do recommend to play towards huge numbers (up to 6-8) only at the CSM productions: at this sample just 25 shoes haven't provided at least a 6 or superior number (nearly 20% of all shoes dealt).

Moreover each positional column roaming far from the 0 sum will be more likely followed by a column providing a positive sum, no matter what's the actual shuffle.

Then there's the specific streaks lenght tool.

as.
#53
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 09, 2024, 10:50:17 PM
Here another sample of real live shoes coming from a CSM transformed into codes:

2-3-6-5-1-1
10-1-4-12
6-4-2-3-2-1
2-1-3-4-2-8
6-4-1-5-1-4
3-2-3-2-1-6
4-9-5-8
2-7-7-3-2
6-1-3-5-5-5
1-3-1-4-2-1-2
2-1-7-2-2-1
2-1-4-1-9-5
6-3-1-3-7
5-2-5-6-6-4
4-5-3-1-2-7
1-21-2-1-6
2-9-3-4-4
4-4-3-1-1-1-3
7-1-1-4-4
3-1-2-3-1-1
2-4-3-2-3-2
7-3-3-4-8
2-5-1-2-4
1-1-5-2-5
1-1-4-5-1-1-3
4-4-7-4
4-1-1-2-3-1
1-1-3-1-2
8-1-4-2-4
4-6-6-2-2
2-6-1-4-2-2
3-2-10-3-5
1-1-2-2-3-3-3
9-14-5-1
2-7-3-8-2
4-1-1-5-2-1
2-5-3-7-1-3
3-12-4
17-4-3-1
7-9-3-6-1
3-5-1-4-9
7-2-2-3-2-1
3-3-3-20
1-1-2-8-1-4
2-2-4-3-1-4
1-2-2-3-6
9-5-3-5
6-10-7-9
6-4-3-1
1-2-2-7-11
2-1-2-2-1-7
3-2-3-2-5-8
17-2-2-5-6
4-2-1-1-1-1
1-1-3-1-2-1-4
2-1-1-5-2-5-5
2-13-8-7
4-1-9-1-9
10-6-9
2-4-1-3-1-9
1-4-2-5-15
3-2-5-5-2
1-4-5-4-1-3
4-2-1-6-3
3-2-6-1-14
1-7-1-2-1-1
3-4-2-3-1-5
3-1-17
9-5-1-8-2
10-1-1-5
1-3-2-4-2
13-1-3-2
7-2-2-13-1
4-8-5-10
1-2-2-13
2-1-1-4-2
2-1-4-6-2
2-2-4-7-3-1-1
5-4-2-2-13
4-2-1-4-5-1
1-1-2-2-4-1-3
1-4-4-5-11
3-4-6-2-4
1-10-5-1-2
3-8-7-5-3
1-6-1-2-8-3-3
3-5-1-16
7-1-1-3-6
1-2-2-9-1
3-7-6-3-4
2-1-4-2-1
14-4
2-13-1-1
2-2-9-5-4
3-2-3-6
4-1-2-1-6-1
1-2-7-13
7-3-9
2-5-3-1-1
1-11-3-2
4-1-1-5-4
5-14-6
1-4-6-10
11-1-2-6
1-4-7-5
2-2-1-1-9
#54
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 09, 2024, 09:55:23 PM
Thanks for your thoughts Al!

I've always thought that to ascertain a possible advantage, we have to measure it even though it could be affected by levels of imperfection due to several causes (variance, shuffling procedures, etc).

IMO only numbers could help to understand if there are vulnerable spots to take advantage from and of course the numbers I've provided are real numbers as those were shoes we put our money at.

As already sayed, algos 'approximate' a supposedly more likely flow of the outcomes at certain (few) determined spots by comparing several parameters that must converge into an univocal B or P bet placement.

as.
#55
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 06, 2024, 04:09:26 AM
You've seen those outcomes, so it's relatively difficult to spot the "more likely" patterns coming around and definitely some shoes are collecting huge sd values (e.g. consider the 1-1-1-1-8-4-3 shoe or the 4-1-1-7-1-2 shoe).
Naturally I'd assume that you consider 1s as negative situations and greater than 1s as positive events.

Thus we have instructed our algos to "understand" that we can't rely upon a "general" more likely line as each shoe is a world apart, so when a 1 come out their action will be somewhat restrained or stopped.

Let's measure such real live shoes codes:

34 times out of 123 scenarios (shoes) no one 1 came around, so 27.64% (instead of 25%) of shoes dealt formed all winning numbers. It means that way more than 1/4 of the spots haven't provided a single loss.

22 times 1s came out clustered (1-1..) and 85 time as isolated (1-greater number than 1), so even here the expected 1:3 ratio wan't respected (79.43% instead of 75%).

Even by taking into account a 'positional' back-to-back shoes featuring a given number and assuming 6 steps at a 6-possible number code we got:

First number being 1 (-3) and every other number (+1) = +27 units

Second number: +15 units

Third number: -55 units 

Fourth number: +16 units

Fifth number. +8 units

Sixth number: +27 units

Overall it's a +38 unit profit (before vig) where algos entice our action.

It's important to notice that algos are sensitive to positional results, in our example not suggesting any bet at the third number being too deviated from the norm.

In addition, note that here 5 out of 6 positional spots will make us a profit and of course when a proper random walk is acting we'll be more entitled to get a win than a loss as more numbers greater than 1 are expected to show up than the counterpart.
(A good idea would be to get rid of the positional number getting worse results, but I do not want to complicate the issue).

Next I'll present other shoe samples belonging to the same shuffling category transformed into codes.

as.
#56
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 05, 2024, 10:23:56 PM
Transforming bac shoes into codes

This is one of the most important tool we rely upon.
I'm presenting a short sample collected at a LV casino HS room.

After having applied a mechanical random walk stopping the action after some 'boundaries' and restarting it after one positive spot happened (and so on), we transform shoes as sequences of numbers.
Numbers refer to the lenght of clustering effect gaps.
So 1= no cluster, 2= just one cluster (a single back-to-back apparition), 3= a cluster of two consecutive apparitions and so on.
Numbers in brackets mean the last number wasn't precisely defined for the shoe ending up.   

Of course those sequences are not corresponding to an actual play, they just constitute a derived number succession.
Obviously each row is any shoe dealt.

4-6-5-2-1
9-4-1-1
3-3-2-3-3
4-1-2-8-(2)
1-2-1-1-1-6
2-3-1-3-2-(2)
2-2-2-2-1
2-8-7-6
3-2-3-14-2
2-11-2-1-2-7
2-1-2-10-1-5
1-1-1-1-3-2-2
7-2-1-6-5
1-6-1-7-3
13-3-3-1-1
2-1-3-2-8-3-(2)
3-9-1-3
6-1-9-1-9
1-1-13-2-1-4
4-5-2-2-5-5
6-4-1-4-4
2-1-1-2-1-7
6-5-2-1-3
1-8-1-2-6-3
6-2-4-5-5
2-2-5-1-2
3-10-6-8
13-1-1-1
14-16
1-10-7
5-13-1-9
3-3-5-5
7-2-6-3-9
1-8-3-6-5
2-4-16-3
1-6-1-2
3-1-5-1-4
1-1-1-1-1-12-3
2-3-1-1
1-2-5-11
3-2-3-2-1-4
7-10-5-7
5-8-2-1-2-3
7-3-3-2-4-1
2-4-1-5-5-4
6-5-1-3-3
2-3-9-6-2
1-5-5-3-6
3-3-1-5-2-6
3-3-1-6-1
1-2-5-2-2-(2)
6-2-3-3-3-12
3-2-2-4-3-3
2-3-1-10
15-1-3-5-2
11-4-5-4
2-3-2-3-5-1-2
2-1-2-3-2-1-2
6-1-3-6-6-3-4
3-1-1-18
1-5-5-5-1-4
8-1-1-3-2
3-2-1-3-4
4-3-1-2-2
13-1-14
4-4-5-5-(2)
5-4-2-2-5-6
2-10-7-4
7-2-10-2
2-6-5-2-8
1-4-5-10-2
2-2-5-4-2-1-2
4-2-1-2-1-7-1-2
2-1-1-3-1-4
5-2-1-10-2
7-8-8
1-9-7-6
3-4-3-4-7
3-5-1-6-5
1-3-1-6-5-3
8-7-8-4
10-1-1-2
1-6-3-1-3
3-7-14
8-3-2-2-2-2
2-4-6-10
3-1-1-8
2-3-1-7-1-2
11-1-8-5
1-4-3-1-7
3-7-3-2
3-2-2-4-2-6-2
8-2-1-3-1-2
2-1-2-5-5
4-13-2-1
3-2-2-1-4
2-4-3-2
6-1-5-5
3-5-6-2
1-1-1-1-8-4-3
3-2-1-8-2
1-4-4-1-4
2-9-3-6
2-1-1-1-2-3-4
7-3-2-6
2-5-1-1-1-3
7-3-2
12-6-8
7-6-1-5-4
4-4-1-15
2-1-9-6-2
1-4-3-2-2-6
1-2-1-1-5-5
4-1-1-5-5
4-1-1-7-1-2
3-2-2-2-11-2
4-3-1-3-6
15-4-2-1-4
1-1-12-1-1-5
2-3-1-3-2-5
5-2-3-2-2
3-7-1-2
2-3-5-1-1-4
1-3-4-5-9-4

Anyone familiar with my pages knows that I'm assuming a 0.75%/0.25% W/L probability and to simplify the issue we consider the number 1 as -3 unit loss and any other number different than 1 corresponds to +1 unit win.

Despite of being a ridiculous short sample, we think that it could give an idea about how the variance will act and about how to extract an edge.
In poorer words, we'are deadly sure to expect worse or better scenarios, yet this is what happened at the premise we've played at.

More later

as. 
#57
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 04, 2024, 09:11:54 PM
KFB wrote:

I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card). :)

I find particularly interesting this passage, can you elaborate a bit?

Thanks

as.
#58
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 03, 2024, 01:34:41 AM
Thanks again for your replies!!!

Very few baccarat experts and players know that overall (both sides) the most likely pattern occurence is...doubles.

Of course this finding collides with perfect binomial independent productions and naturally we need quite of time to get at baccarat the doubles predominance.

Now the issue could be extrapolated and dissected into infinite ways, anyway converging on the main reasons why BB and PP should come out slight more often than not.

Whereas it's theorically and partially difficult to understand why B doubles constitute a large part of the B outcomes, P streaks are mathematically oriented to stop at some point and the least possibility to get a P streak is, a double.

On the other end and assuming a constant math force shifting the results, even single runs (wholly considered at both sides) should be polarized in their long term apparition, but that's not the case.

Empirically we might assign an important (albeit diluted) role to the average shoe composition enhancing streaks stopping after two back-to-back scenarios.

Superior streaks than doubles (starting with triples) follow the same slight propensity and so on.

Think about that: if casinos would fear long streaks happening and such long streaks would be quite frequent to happen, well the game wouldn't exist.
On the other end, system players relying upon such relative improbability to get long streaks would go broke soon as one or more long streaks must happen.

Obviously it's one thing to know what should happen more likely and a completely different thing to decide what to bet at the actual shoe we're playing at.   

Algos rely upon a couple of different back-to-back registrations (in the vast majority of the times things change a lot after a given number of hands dealt) but always in order to get empty slots at given rows.
That is "hoping" to get empty column ranges than 1 at given rows, so discarding all the situations where a determined row is back-to-back filled (no play).

Example.

Say that your plan is to get either one single or one double after any 3(3+) BP streak happened.
If two (or more) consecutive triples show up we stop the plan, waiting for a fresh new 3(3+) streak. And so on.
No way to get an advantage (unless a very deep multilayered progressive scheme is in order).
Things do not appear to be more appealing when 1-gap triples gaps should be followed by larger than 1 'no triples' situations.

Just to give an example situations as 3-1-3-2-3-1-3-3-1-3-2-3 are very rare to happen (that is five isolated losing sequences in a row--in bold). But they happen.

Now let's consider different rhythms of results' classification, so trying to falsify the hypothesis that every registration will be insensitive to the actual production considered random and independent.

Good news is that a possible 4 or 5 losing 1-step clustered range cannot happen after thousands and thousands of shoes examined: in the vast majority of the times (well beyond the math expectancy) 1-step events MUST be followed by larger than 1 gaps.

Superior streaks classes need a more calibrated action to be exploited as further we stay from the singles and doubles appearance higher will be the variance acting.

as.
#59
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
December 31, 2023, 11:14:54 PM
The KFB hypothesis about ties needs a further post to be discussed.
Anyway I agree with him.

as. 
#60
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
December 31, 2023, 11:12:32 PM
Nice thoughts KFB!!

I totally agree there's no way to beat the house by wagering a lot of hands unless we stay put for a way larger amount of hands dealt.

Besides the HE, it's practically impossible to guess many hands as possible 'triggers' float around steps sooner or later deviating 'too much' from the 0 value.
In such a model, perfect independent productions make no valuable points to be attacked.

At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?

Bighorn.sh.it.

Anyone knowing the Smoluchowski's 'probability after effects' concept (not mentioning other statistical tools improving such idea) understands that an event or two (or more) events present sd values way lower than binomial independent models, providing to assign an "actual" code to each shoe distribution.

Of course such assumption needs to be stricly measured after testing large samples and we know that it's very important to consider productions under the same shuffling category.

Mathematically we have to dispute the common knowledge that after a given event the next event (or class of events) will get the same probability to appear.
Most of the times this is true, yet at a restricted part of possible outcomes, that's completely false.

Our studies have found out that alternating W/L flows are the least likely to happen or, better sayed, that are the least likely to stand for long, so privileging 'clusters' of something.
We do not know how much such clusters stand but we know they are more likely to happen, especially  when we raise the probability of success by betting two events vs an opposite event.

Suppose that we take care of a X event coming out 5 or more times in a row vs the same event showing up 3 or 4 times in a row.

General probability will say to us that 3 and 4 streak classes (p=0.75%) will be counterbalanced by 5+ streaks (p=0.25%).

From a math standpoint and assigning a 3 value to any 3 streak, 4 to any 4 streak and 5 to any streak equal or superior than 5, then considering back-to-back values we'll get such scenarios:

3-3 = 6
3-4 = 7
4-3 = 7
4-4 = 8
3-5 = 8
5-3 = 8
4-5 = 9
5-4 = 9
5-5 = 10

Each number will add to the next one so forming infinite (actually finite for that shoe) sums   performing pattern numbers slight more likely to happen. Especially after having ascertained that sums are sensitive to previous supposedly more probable situations, best if both two classes considered really happened at that shoe.

Obviously I'm not referring to the simple BP flow (and neither at common derived roads), as this effect is too restricted to be exploited (mostly as B>P so someway enhancing long B streaks).

as.