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Baccarat Forum / Re: Losing shoe
« on: December 24, 2014, 12:28:40 am »
Ok, let's take the issue from a theorical perspective.

What are you going to expect to have on player side? Long consecutive streaks?

What are you going to expect to have on banker side? Long consecutive singles series?

Let's think about it.

Knowing what happen most, you cannot miss you goals.



Baccarat Forum / Re: Losing shoe
« on: December 23, 2014, 11:00:30 pm »
Hi mahatma.

I'd have easily won on both shoes, as both shoes were falling in what I call "average shoe" category.


Baccarat Forum / Re: Dragon bonus got "destroyed"
« on: November 02, 2014, 11:24:05 pm »
Hi alrelax.

As you I'm used to have a very serious approach about the gambling world.

Thus I take such information as a papal bull, given the sources.

I guess you have never seen 6 multiple maximum limit bets on a side bet in the very final portions of a shoe. Not every shoe. And that thing happened in a 3 month period, day by day, noticing the same betting line and the very same players wagering the maximum.
It happened this team won a lot of money.

Best support suggested by the by-standers came out by studying the real quality of the cards springing from the very final hands of played shoes.
You know what cards I'm talking about.

Casinos won't take in account what mathematics and experts dictate when they are losing a lot of money in very selected spots.

Knowing that at baccarat card counting won't offer any help doesn't lighten the supposedly winners condition.

Was it just a positive and very unlikely 3 month players' shifted variance?
Maybe, but casinos don't care.








Baccarat Forum / Dragon bonus got "destroyed"
« on: October 31, 2014, 11:56:46 pm »
I got news a team of 10 players recently made a serious dent in the baccarat bankroll of one US casino, heavily betting on dragon bonus.

Everyone here knows how the dragon bonus works and I guess most part of you have read the Jacobsen topic about that.


It sounds this team had heavily and simultaneously bet mainly the "before last" and last hand of any shoe after having counted the cards removed from the deck.

Let's summarize a bit.

Dragon bonus is a bet where you bet the winning hand will win by a fair percentage of points over the losing one (minimum set at 4 or more points).

By a proper and accurate card counting, players could get an advantage expecially on the latest portions of a shoe.

Cards which lessen the probability of having a 4+ points gap mostly are Aces, 2s and 3s.
Cards enhancing the dragon bonus factor are 8s and 9s (7s too, at a lesser degree).

For obvious reasons, dragon bonus Player bet will show better perfomances than the same Banker bet, having the first bet about a 4 times lower negative edge than the counterpart.

The team after having accurately counted every card, waited the right circumstances to bet the very last hands of some shoes, getting the best of it by far.

Rumors suggested they solely bet when the 8s-9s-paints ratio was higher at some degree than other card combinations, thus simultaneously betting huge sums either on the player dragon bonus side and inferior amounts on banker side, without waiting other "perfect card distribution" situations.

Surely they got long positive transitory variance outcomes, let's think about winning a 30-1 proportion having had the luck to encounter a 9-0 third card or a 0-9 third card scenario.

Anyway, the simultaneous steady "good luck" and accurately selected flow raised the casino's heat ending up with the ban of those "lucky" end-shoe bettors.

Moreover and for good measure, the casino erased the dragon bonus bets from the baccarat tables, the like dragon and panda bets are steadily disappearing in our beloved felts.











Baccarat Forum / Re: I sat down to write a book
« on: October 26, 2014, 10:42:37 pm »
I really like when someone wants to write down his/her ideas on gambling topic.

All the best for your efforts, Lung!  ^-^


Baccarat Forum / Re: Ride the Waves
« on: October 26, 2014, 10:39:04 pm »
Score this on your own.


I'm just asking what should be in your opinion the perfect counter sequence of the one shown above.



Baccarat Forum / Re: Ride the Waves
« on: October 25, 2014, 08:51:44 pm »

So if we assign a +1 value to streaks (chance repeat) and -1 to chops (chance shift) at roulette we'll surely have a long term zero total sum.

As roulette is a perfectly 50/50 game, my opinion suggests we'll never have a detectable profitable stepping toward one side or another, because any bet will be balanced by a counter event.

At baccarat things are slightly different.
For example, why betting toward the 4+ streak sequence at player side knowing that longer streaks are less likely than streaks of lower category?

Anyway, what's interesting in this post is the idea that we could get some kind of hint after having studied certain paces of the game.

The only thing, imho, which might lead to a flat betting winning method.




Mathematically each sequence is suppose to occur once every 60 hands, be aware it doesn't always work out like this.

I guess each sequence mathematically occuring once every 64 hands.

Statistically and obviously itlr some sequences will finally show up at higher or lesser frequency, hence I'd prefer to bet that PPPP will be more in silence than, for example the perfect "counterpart" BBBB.

Anyway, it's interesting stuff.





' as any repeated pattern of chance events continues, its reversal becomes progressively imminent".[/b]

I like this statement providing to add the word "rare", so now looking like this:

as any repeated pattern of RARE chance events continues, its reversal becomes progressively imminent


Gambling Philosophy / Re: Casino games, battleground or no?
« on: September 20, 2014, 10:13:30 pm »
But in Baccarat there is never any edge, it is a money game. 



Gambling Philosophy / Re: DEVIATION or BALANCE?
« on: September 20, 2014, 10:09:19 pm »
For once, I agree with my beloved buddy Rolex.  :)

Deviation is the norm, balance is the exception.

Other than what the common experience dictates, many brilliant works demonstrated it.
Anyway, imho, roulette is totally unbeatable.



Baccarat Forum / Re: Anticipation
« on: September 09, 2014, 12:23:11 am »
Hi rouletta.

To constantly win at baccarat we must study and register what happens in the long run because things aren't proportionally placed (the 50.68-49.32 probability is a long term finding)

At roulette we cannot benefit of this luxury, any spin is totally independent from the previous one and long term results confirm this (any hand follows its mathematical expectancy).

Imo at roulette the only thing we can do, other than staying very far from it, is trying to get an advantage on small betting cycles, that is to admit that some spins' sequences are not perfectly random produced.
In a word, betting that some observed events will be more likely in the close future than their counterpart not having show up so far. That is preferring to bet on what just happened opposed to chase what never happened. Well knowing that in the long run everything will be perfectly balanced.
Adopting this line of thought, your super limited observations seem to be somewhat interesting.




Baccarat Forum / Re: Anticipation
« on: September 08, 2014, 09:23:52 pm »
gr8player, I'm wondering what we could do sharing our ideas...  :thumbsup:



Baccarat Forum / Re: Anticipation
« on: September 05, 2014, 08:32:27 pm »
Interesting post.


Practically, your system dictates that the ">4->4->4" streaks' sequence will show up in a  proportionally smaller amount than the other 7 occurences.
More precisely, it seems you think that the sequence >4 - >4 - 4 is more prevalent than the counterpart >4->4->4, because it's the spot you bet the most.

Even if it's true that over the long run 4 streaks are slight more prevalent than superior streaks, 3-term negative consecutive sequences will give you hard times.

I'm asking if for "no betting back to back on the same table" you mean you make just a single bet per each shoe.



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